USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend.
Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom).
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Usdchfsignals
USDCHF: Top-Down Analysis & Bullish Outlook Explained ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ญ
USDCHF is trading in a strong bullish trend.
After the price set a new higher high on a daily,
it retraced to a key horizontal support.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that, I have spotted a bullish breakout
of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
It is an important sign of strength of the buyers.
The market will most likely resume growth next week.
Goals: 0.917 / 0.9195
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USDCHF Channel Up prevailing for now. Buy the dip.The USDCHF pair broke last week above the 1 year Channel Down and closed above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since November 09 2022. The price action has now completed five 1D candles above the 1D MA100 and the pattern that seems to be prevailing is a Channel Up (blue).
With the 1D RSI hit 67.00, almost turning overbought, so our intension is to wait for a Higher Lows (dashed trend-line) pull-back and buy the dip, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.9000.
If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will take the loss and turn bearish instead long-term. The target will be 0.83650 representing a -4.73% decline from the 1D MA50, which has taken place another 3 times already within this long-term Channel Down.
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USDCHF Approaching the 1D MA50 for the optimal sell entry.The USDCHF pair made a strong rejection near the top of the Channel Down pattern and hit our 0.88250 sell target as illustrated on our analysis 2 months ago (see chart below):
The price is now rising again, after nearly the -0.5 Fibonacci extension for a Lower Low (same as the May 04 Lower Low). The most optimal sell entry is within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is located exactly at the top of the Channel Down. We will take that opportunity to sell and target 0.8300 (again near the -0.5 Fibonacci extension).
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USD/CHFThe possible scenario that I deduced with elliott wave analysis is on the graph.
first a small rise and a small fall ... then a big wave that will bring big returns. the target of the last wave is the first target point. In the continuation of the movement, an update can be made by setting new targets (HIGHER?)
USDCHF Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCHF Bullish above the 1D MA50, bearish below it.The USDCHF pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern since late November and it currently above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as 1D candles close above it (1D MA50), we will stay bullish and target slightly below the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.91850. A 1D candle close below it, will be a bearish break-out for us, targeting the Channel's recent Low at 0.88250.
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USDCHF Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCHF Channel Down rejection on the 4H MA50. Sell signal.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 08 High, with a Diverging Lower Lows trend-line supporting on the April 13 Low. For the past three days however, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been rejecting the price. That has been the standard short-term Resistance since March 22, so almost a full month.
As a result, it is more likely to see a bearish continuation within the Channel Down, targeting the Lower Lows again at 0.87890. This would complete a -2.41% drop similar to March 23, as the two fractals are quite identical, especially in terms on RSI.
If the price closes a 4H candle above the Channel Down though (0.236 Fibonacci), we will turn bullish instead and target first the 0.382 Fib (0.90835) and the 0.5 Fib (0.91500) in extension on a possible contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
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USDCHF Channel Down 1DMA50 rejection but can transition sidewaysThe USDCHF pair has been trading within a perfect Channel Down pattern since the November 30 2022 High. On Monday we had a strong rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that should start the next bearish leg towards the Channel's Lower Low. This time however, if the 0.90625 February 02 Low doesn't break, we may see the pair turn sideways as the blue range shown on the chart (0.9090 - 0.93700) has been a high volatility region for more than 5 months (October 2021 - mid March 2022). Of course in order for that to materialize, we need a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, which hasn't been done since November 07 2022.
Until then, every Lower High rejection is a sell opportunity towards 0.90200 (Support 1) and if broken then 0.89260 (Support 2). Notice how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is comfortably located at the top of the range. Only a 1D candle close above it can turn the pair bullish towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
An indicator that supports this sideways transition to the range is the 1D RSI which in contrast to the price's Channel Down, it has been within a Channel Up since November 11, hence a Bullish Divergence.
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USDCHF 1D Death Cross can be bullish short-termThe USDCHF pair confirmed our bearish signal more than a month ago and broke below the 1D MA50 (blue), 1D MA200 (orange) and 1W MA100 (red trend-line) in succession. While at this, it broke below both Higher Lows trend-lines that started on the January 06 2021 market bottom, thus confirming the long-term shift from bullish to bearish.
The emerging 1D Death Cross though (MA50 crossing below the MA200), while a long-term bearish formation, it can be bullish short-term. The reason is that while the price has been on Lower Lows, the 1D RSI is a Higher Lows i.e. a Bullish Divergence. Since the Jan 06 bottom, the two similar RSI Bullish Divergencies, ended up with rebounds.
Even during the last registered 1D Death Cross, the pair had again a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence that made a short/ medium-term rebound above the 1D MA200 and the previous Lower High and resumed the downtrend after it closed below the 1W MA100 again.
As a result, unless we make a break below last week's low, we are short-term bullish on the USDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 and then turn bearish again. If however we break below the recent Low first, we will change back to selling and target the lower Supports in succession: 0.90900, 0.89300 and 0.87600.
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USDCHF Trading plan until the end of the yearThe USDCHF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern ever since it made its low on the 2021 Higher Lows zone (started January 2021) just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on August 11 2022. After another bounce on the 1D MA200, the price established the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support and even tested and marginally broke (on a candle wick) the 1.00650 Resistance Zone, which should be considered still a Triple Top since the price failed to close a candle above it.
We see a stable pull-back on Lower Lows since Oct 14, which can be considered just a Bull Flag unless the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) breaks. Until then the break-out (above the Flag) and Channel Up bottom test, should be bought, targeting the Triple Top Resistance. A break above this Resistance should target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.
On the other hand, a closing below the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows) should target the 1D MA200 and if that breaks too, the 2021 Higher Lows Zone again, where it can finally make contact with the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). On the long-term, a break below that Zone constitutes a shift from bullish to bearish and we should look for new patterns. We will follow that with updates so stay tuned.
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USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekPrice is currently within a strong supply zone which has a strong memory of selling pressure at around 0.98500. Are we going to be witnessing another selling pressure from this zone this week or a breakout of this zone to the upside will signal a bullish momentum?
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDCHF Break-out and pull-back buy entries.The USDCHF pair found Support yesterday exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the level that provided the last big rally (August 11 - September 06) within the Channel Down pattern that it has been trading in since the May 16 High.
The rise however has so far stopped just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), so there is no reason to rush into trades. It is best to take a break-out/ pull-back buy approach and buy either if the candle closes above the 1D MA50 or wait for a break below the 1D MA200, probably closer to the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). That would still not be a Lower Low for the Channel but we have to consider not just the Support Zone around 0.93700 but also the Higher Lows zone (dashed) that is holding since the January 06 2021 Low.
In both cases, our target would be the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. In order to buy above this level, the pair needs to break the 0.98880 - 0.98700 Resistance Zone, which formed a Double Top on the previous High. On the other hand, in order to sell, we need to see a candle break below the Support Zone, in which case our target will be the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down.
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USDCHF | Perspective for the new week | follow- up detailThe momentum drive on the USDCF has been bullish since the beginning of the year and the breakout of the bearish trendline on the daily timeframe coupled with the appearance of a double top look-a-like structure during the latter part of last week's trade session could be a signal of a reversal phase evolving. However, I still hold a strong bullish bias on this pair and the proposed retracement move could be an attempt to retest the structure broken at the 0.95700 area
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekThe momentum drive on the USDCH has been bullish since the beginning of the year and the sudden breakout of the bearish trendline identified on the daily timeframe is likely going to be a confirmation in that regard. In this video, I shared my technical opinion on my expectation this week as I look forward to a potential rally continuation.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDCHF SELLWait for a break of price at 0.98000, if price retests it will minimize the SL, if not, you may also take a short entry i.e sell entry for usdchf for around 40-50 green pips.
Price has made a double top on 1H timeframe, and another of 15M time frame(both shown in the chart), lower timeframe predicts the change of momentum from long to short.
Keep supporting, Happy Trading.
USDCHF Pivot and break-out levelsThe USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down since mid-May. At the moment it is rising after a Lower Low on August 02 but remains limited below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time the uptrend got rejected on the Internal Lower Highs trend-line. The 1D RSI is also trading within a Falling Wedge. As a result, below the Lower Highs trend-line, the trade is a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while a candle close above is a buy targeting the top of the Channel Down.
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USDCHF | Perspective for the new weekThe current technical structure suggests that the USDCHF remains pressured into a risk of a further decline in price. The appearance of a strong reversal pattern on the 4H timeframe gives me added reason to hold a bearish bias for the new week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.






















