Get started

USDJPY

USDJPY H4 | Bearish DropUSD/JPY is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 147.56, which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 148.36, which is a pullback resistance. Take rpofit is at 146.22, which is a multi swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 STOP!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 3811.880 💰TP: 3654.765 ⛔️SL: 3915.820 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Sell priority is looking for gold, and there are two scenarios (see chart). Technically, we're witnessing a buying culmination, and a downward reversal is likely coming soon. The main target is seen near the POC, specifically the 3654 level. In the longer term, deeper targets are likely to be looked for. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by StopLoss222
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot, which is a [pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 148.05 1st Support: 146 1st Resistance: 149.84 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by IC Markets
Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 148.58 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 149.83 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance level. Take profit: 147.04 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
USD/JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY Bearish Continuation Setup (1H Timeframe) --- Chart Summary: Pair: USD/JPY Timeframe: 1H Exchange: IC Markets Current Price: 147.856 EMA 50: 148.439 (resistance) EMA 200: 148.396 (resistance) --- Key Observations: 1. Downtrend Structure Price is consistently making lower highs and lower lows. Both EMA 50 and EMA 200 are above price, acting as dynamic resistance. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Supply Zone Price is expected to retrace into the 148.30–148.45 zone. This aligns with both EMAs, creating a confluence resistance area. 3. Bearish Projection After retest of the FVG zone, sellers are expected to push price lower. Measured move shows potential continuation down to the 146.933 target point. 4. Momentum Previous strong bearish candles indicate heavy selling pressure. Weak retracements suggest buyers are losing strength. Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: The chart signals a bearish continuation: Scenario 1 (Preferred): Price retests the 148.30–148.45 FVG zone and rejects → downside continuation to 146.93 target. Scenario 2 (Invalidation): A strong close above 148.50 would invalidate this bearish setup and shift bias to neutral/bullish. --- please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
10
USD/ JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (1H) chart idea breakdown from your image: --- USD/JPY – Bearish Setup (1H Timeframe) Market Structure: After a strong bullish rally, price has rejected from 149.6–150.0 zone and shifted bearish. Price is currently trading below the 50 EMA (148.98) and testing around the 200 EMA (148.45) → showing weakening momentum. Two Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are highlighted: Upper FVG (resistance supply zone) near 149.1 – 149.3. Mid FVG near 148.8 – 149.0, likely a retest area before continuation down. Price Projection: Expecting a possible short-term pullback into the yellow FVG zone → rejection from 148.9–149.1. Bearish continuation could drive price toward the target point: 147.46. This aligns with the projected measured move shown on the chart. Indicators: 50 EMA (red) turning down → confirming bearish shift. 200 EMA (blue) being tested → a break below strengthens bearish case. Mr SMC Trading point --- Bias: Bearish Target: 147.46 Invalidation: A strong break and hold above 149.3 (FVG supply) --- Pelas support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDJPY - 2000pip Reversal Incoming!USDJPY is setting up for a 2000pip impulse! We've seen a bearish impulse at the start of this year and since then we've been in a correction. We are expecting another impulse very soon, rivalling the first one! Trade Idea: - Watch for price to move into our reversal zone - once there, look for trendline break, BOS or other reversal signs - Take profit: 140 (1500pips), 135 (2000pips) Short Term Buys: In the meantime, we can look to trade the move up into the sell zone. Expecting a bounce off the fibonacci. Invalidation level is 145.4. A break below that level will invalidation this short term buys. See below for the short term buys. USDJPY 12H Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
USDJPY Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for USDJPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 147.98 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 148.78 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
BUY US Dollar! Sell xxxUSD Pairs! Buy USDxxx Pairs!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the Sept 30th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY. Keep it simple! Buy USDxxx pairs. Sell xxxUSD pairs. Just wait for valid setups. Once price shows a valid change in the state of delivery on your entry TFs, enter. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
6
USD/JPY - BULLISH REVERSAL IN PLAYThe recent price action on the USD/JPY 30-minute chart confirms a Change of Character (CHOCH), marking a significant shift in market structure from a bearish trend to a potential bullish reversal. This CHOCH is a critical technical signal indicating that the previous downtrend has lost momentum and that buyers are beginning to take control of the market. Leading up to the CHOCH, the market had been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, respecting a well-defined trendline resistance. This downtrend was also characterized by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. However, as price approached a strong support zone, it began to consolidate, suggesting a buildup of buying interest. Eventually, price broke above the most recent lower high, completing a clear CHOCH — the first structural sign that the bearish trend had been invalidated. This CHOCH is further validated by the break of the descending trendline, a strong bullish impulse candle, and a reaction from the support zone, all of which add confluence to the idea of a trend reversal. Additionally, the breakout occurred with noticeable momentum (as implied by the volume indicator icon on the chart), further reinforcing the likelihood of continued upside movement. With the CHOCH confirmed and the previous bearish structure broken, the market is now positioned to seek liquidity and inefficiencies above, specifically targeting the next key resistance zone located around 149.600 to 149.900. This area represents a prior supply zone and contains a “weak high,” which often acts as a price magnet during bullish reversals, as the market seeks to test or sweep liquidity from those levels. In conclusion, the CHOCH marks a decisive shift in direction, and the market structure now supports a bullish move. As long as price holds above the recent low and continues to print higher highs and higher lows, the next likely destination is the resistance zone, where traders should watch for either profit-taking opportunities or signs of further continuation.
Long
by Hamza_Gold
USD/JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (1H timeframe) chart analysis: --- Bearish USD/JPY Setup Rejection at Resistance: Multiple rejections (red arrows) show strong selling pressure around 149.70 – 149.80 zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price may retest the FVG supply area before continuing lower. Moving Averages: 50 EMA (red) is turning flat, showing short-term weakness. 200 EMA (blue) is below, acting as the larger support zone. Market Structure Shift (MSS): Breakdown of recent support suggests bearish intent. --- Target Point Expected drop towards 148.38 – 148.37 (aligned with 200 EMA & previous demand zone). Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Idea Bias: Bearish. Entry Zone: Retest of 149.60 – 149.70 (FVG). Target: 148.38. Invalidation: A break above 150.00 would invalidate the bearish outlook. Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USD/JPY Bullish Reversal Setup – Long Entry at Support Zone1. Price Structure Price has been in a downtrend channel (highlighted in pink). It has reached the lower boundary of the channel and seems to be consolidating. This suggests a possible reversal or breakout to the upside. 2. Entry Point Marked near 148.419 – 148.439. This is right at the bottom of the consolidation zone, just above the support area. 3. Stop Loss Placed around 148.085 – 148.099 (yellow box). Smartly set below the most recent low to protect against further downside if price breaks support. 4. Target Target point is at 150.249. This is a big upside move (around 180 pips from entry). Good risk-to-reward ratio (approx. 1:4), meaning potential profit is much higher than potential loss. 5. Market Context The chart suggests that once price breaks above the small downtrend (dashed blue line), it could push strongly upward. This looks like a bullish flag pattern, which is generally a continuation pattern in an uptrend. --- 📊 Conclusion Bias: Bullish (buy setup) Reason: Price is at channel support + entry is near demand zone + bullish breakout potential. Plan: Buy near 148.42 with stop loss at 148.09 and target 150.25. Risk/Reward: Favorable (good setup if price respects support and breaks upward). ⚠ Key Risk: If price closes below 148.09 support, this setup becomes invalid and could drop further.
Long
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
2
USDJPY Will Go Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 148.642. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 146.320 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
USDJPY Will Go Lower! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 149.732. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 148.888 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY H4 | Bullish bounce aheadUSD/JPY is falling towards the buy entry which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside. Buy entry is at 147.86, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 146.99, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 149.81, which is a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USD/JPY: Short-Term Correction Before Strong Upside MoveHello everyone, let’s analyse the USD/JPY pair today! At present, the price is pausing around the resistance zone of 148.800 – 149.000. It is highly likely that the market will undergo a short-term correction towards 147.500 – 147.800 before gathering momentum for the next upward leg. If this support area holds firm, USD/JPY could rebound and retest the 148.800 – 149.000 region. A successful breakout above this zone would open the way for higher targets, including 149.500 and even 150.000. On the news side, the Bank of Japan’s ongoing accommodative stance continues to put pressure on the yen, while the US dollar is being supported by safe-haven demand amid rising global tensions. These fundamental drivers further strengthen the medium-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY. I believe USD/JPY is likely to see a short-term pullback before resuming its broader upward trend. What do you think?
Short
by EmmaChartist
5
Potential bearish reversal?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 149.51 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 150.88 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance. Take profit: 148.12 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and oculd bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 148.31 1st Support: 145.39 1st Resistance: 151.23 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by IC Markets
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸Bullish Reversal - 148.850 Zone ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
1
USD/JPY 1-Hour Candlestick Chart Entry Point: ≈149.394 This is set just below the current price and near the lower boundary of the recent consolidation/support zone. The anticipation is that the price will dip slightly to this level before reversing up. Stop Loss (SL): ≈149.068 The stop loss is placed below a recent swing low or potential support level. This represents the point where the bullish thesis is invalidated. Risk: The risk on this trade is the distance between the entry point and the stop loss: 149.394−149.068=0.326 pips. Target Point (Take Profit - TP): ≈150.917 This is a significant distance above the current price and the recent highs. It is likely targeting a prior high or a psychological level like 151.000 (though the target is slightly below it). Reward: The potential reward is the distance between the target point and the entry point: 150.917−149.394=1.523 pips. Risk/Reward Ratio (RRR): The RRR is calculated as Reward / Risk: RRR= 0.326 1.523 ​ ≈4.67 A Risk/Reward Ratio of ≈4.67:1 is excellent. This means that for every 1 unit of risk, you are aiming for over 4.5 units of profit. A high RRR is a key characteristic of a favorable trade setup. Potential Scenarios & Considerations: Bullish Confirmation (Trade Works): The price follows the projected path (the small red line with an arrow), touches the entry point, finds strong support there, and reverses sharply upward to eventually hit the 150.917 target. Trade Fails: The price breaks convincingly below the stop loss at 149.068. This would indicate a failure of the support level and a likely continuation of the downtrend/retracement, invalidating the buy setup. The price moves up and reaches the target without dipping to the entry point (missing the entry). Trader Action Summary The setup suggests a Limit Buy order to be placed at 149.394, anticipating a final dip before the rally. Action: Limit Buy at 149.394 Contingency: A break below 149.068 indicates a stronger selling momentum, and the trade should be exited (Stop Loss triggered). Goal: Targeting a significant extension of the recent upward trend
Long
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
7
September 2025 Market Summary Gold and ForexProjectSyndicate Market Summary September 2025 📊 MTD performance 🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD): 3,759.65 | +286.65 (+8.31%) 💶 EURUSD: 1.1702 | +16 pips (+0.14%) 💷 GBPUSD: 1.3392 | −112 pips (−0.83%) 💴 USDJPY: 149.19 | +211 pips (+1.43%) 📈 SPX: 6,637.97 | +236.46 (+3.69%) 📈 NDX: 24,503.57 | +1,483.10 (+6.44%) ________________________________________ 🗞 September overview • 🇺🇸 The Fed cut 25 bps on September 17 and flagged the possibility of further cuts this year, reinforcing a softer USD bias and boosting gold demand. • 🇪🇺 The ECB held rates on September 11, though left the door open for easing later. • 🇬🇧 The Bank of England held rates and slowed quantitative tightening on September 18. • 🇯🇵 The BoJ maintained a “hawkish hold” on September 19, started unwinding ETF/REIT holdings, and signaled possible rate risks into October — supporting JPY on abrupt USD strength. • 🟡 Gold made a fresh intramonth high near ~$3,790, before settling slightly lower. • Stronger U.S. economic data mid-month (jobs, yields) briefly undercut rate cut expectations, leading to a temporary gold dip, but the momentum has largely resumed. • Tariff announcements and trade-policy uncertainty added safe-haven tailwinds to gold. ________________________________________ 🟡 Gold Market Overview – September 2025 ✨ Key Highlights & Drivers • All-time high revisit: Spot gold pushed toward $3,790 mid-month on renewed enthusiasm for Fed easing and weaker USD. • Volatility around economic surprises: Upside surprises in US data (jobs, GDP) triggered brief USD strength that pressured gold, but the downside was limited. • Fed narrative remains gold’s ally: The dovish pivot (25 bps cut + future cuts flagged) continues to lend structural support to gold. • ETF & institutional flows: Inflows into gold ETFs have reaffirmed investor appetite for safe-haven exposure. • Risk / geopolitical spillovers: Oil price jitters, trade frictions, and general macro uncertainty underpin demand for non-correlated assets. • Technical posture: After surging, gold has found interim support in the region of ~$3,650–3,700, with resistance clustering near $3,800. A sustained break above the latter could open targets toward $3,900+. 📊 Performance Recap Gold has posted one of its strongest monthly performances of 2025, currently up ~8.7 % MTD. Stronger parts of the rally were clustered around rate cut confirmation and safe-haven demand spikes. 🔍 Risks & Watch-Outs • A surprise resurgence in U.S. economic strength (inflation, jobs) could push rate markets back toward dovish skepticism, pressuring gold. • A re-strengthening USD (driven by rates or yield spreads) will be headwind for dollar‐priced gold. • Central bank actions: further buying or selling by official sectors could tilt balance. • Technical overextension: short-term pullbacks or consolidations are plausible given the sharp run-up. ________________________________________ 💱 FX Landscape – September 2025 • EURUSD: The pair remains stuck under ~1.1700, recovering modestly from USD spikes but lacking strong directional conviction. • GBPUSD: Under pressure through the month, sliding toward 1.3350 as sterling weakens on yield differentials and global risk dynamics. • USDJPY: Strength in yields and risk dynamics have nudged USDJPY higher, though BoJ vigilance and intervention risk temper runaway moves. Broader theme: while risk sentiment supports carry / USD strength, central bank policy cycles and macro surprises are injecting volatility and preventing runaway trends. ________________________________________ 📝 Summary & Key Takeaways ✅ What Worked in September • Gold leveraged dovish central bank messaging and USD softness to consistently outperform across risk regimes. • Positioning toward safe havens paid off in a month marked by macro surprises and geopolitical noise. • FX markets remained choppy, with no clear trending momentum — caution was rewarded. ⚠️ What to Watch Going Forward • U.S. data flow — especially inflation, jobs, and PCE — could reshape Fed expectations and thus gold/FX direction. • USD momentum — a reversal in dollar strength could compress gold gains; sustained USD weakness could accelerate the bull run. • Intervention / central banks — any surprises from BoJ, PBoC, or central banks stepping into gold or FX markets could upend positioning. • Technical zones — if gold can break and hold above $3,800, it may open new leg toward $3,900+; failure may invite a pullback toward $3,650–3,700.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
35