Could we see a drop from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 147.32
1st Support: 146.00
1st Resistance: 148.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bearish entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
Bearish Movement from 147.150
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
USDJPY longs due to better than expected Eco dataFor the week ending August 23, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims were 229,000, below the forecast of 231,000 and down from the previous week's revised figure of 234,000. This suggests a slight improvement in new unemployment filings.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Due to the above data being better than expected, we can expect the dollar to increase in strength over the short term.
USDJPY Long Bias Forecast Q3 W35 D28 Y25 – NY Session 🗓️ USDJPY Long Bias Forecast
Q3 W35 D28 Y25 – NY Session
Top-Down Technical Outlook
🔹 Weekly Timeframe
Price Action: Strong rejection from the Weekly 50 EMA, acting as dynamic support.
Note: With two trading days left in the week, the previous weekly wick remains a key area — it may still fill, suggesting further upside potential.
Implication: Structure suggests continuation to the upside, but current price must confirm with internal shifts before entry.
🔹 Daily Timeframe
Current Price: Hovering around the Daily 50 EMA – a key equilibrium level.
Expectation: Potential bullish reaction if buyers defend this zone.
Risk Consideration: Aggressive long entries must be approached cautiously without a confirmed change in internal structure (CHOIS).
🔹 4H Timeframe
Confluence:
Bullish wick closure on the last candle suggests rejection from lower prices.
Order Block (OB) identified near Daily 50 EMA – an ideal POI.
Narrative: Structure is preparing for a potential shift. Look for breaks of internal structure (BOS) to confirm bullish intent.
🔹 1H Timeframe
Candlestick Confirmation: Last 3 consecutive bullish candles forming a classic bullish continuation pattern.
Order Block in alignment with 4H and Daily 50 EMA adds weight to the area.
Bias: Bullish – pending confirmation via BOS and clean pullbacks.
🔹 5-Minute Timeframe
Microstructure:
Refined entry points within OB zone.
Ideal for tight stop entries post BOS and retest of lower-timeframe OB.
Watch For:
Shift from bearish to bullish market structure.
Entry following a break + retest of a demand zone or OB.
✅ Confluences for Longs
Rejection from Weekly 50 EMA.
Price respecting Daily 50 EMA.
4H OB + Bullish candle closure.
1H Bullish formation + OB.
5M potential BOS/CHOIS for refined entry.
⚠️ Cautions / Trade Management
Wait for internal structure shift on lower timeframes before full commitment.
Liquidity sweeps below current price are still possible before upside continuation.
Maintain awareness of macroeconomic catalysts (e.g., U.S. or Japan economic data or central bank commentary).
FRGNT
FX:USDJPY
USDJPY Tests 5-Month TrendlineJapan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, cancelled a visit to Washington at the last minute, stalling talks over a $550 billion investment package Tokyo had proposed in exchange for tariff relief.
President Trump framed the offer as “our money to invest,” asserting that the US would retain 90% of the profits, while Japanese officials clarified that any investments must also benefit Japan.
However, USDJPY continues to maintain a bullish/neutral structure, trading above a 5-month trendline that connects consecutive higher lows from the 1.3980 trough in April 2025. The pair is now hovering near critical support around 147.
If the price breaks below 147, losses may extend toward 146.30 and 146.00, with potential for further downside toward 145.00, 144.00, and 142.70 if bearish momentum builds.
On the upside, holding above 148.70 would shift focus toward 149.70, 150.70, and 151.70, continuing the bullish trajectory.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
USDJPY Rebound Faces 148.300 Resistance, Eyes on 146.900 Target!Hey Traders, In today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 148.300 zone. USDJPY has been moving lower overall, with price currently correcting toward the 148.300 area.
Structure: The broader bias has been bearish, but recent price action is showing a short-term pullback.
Key level in focus: 148.300 — previously acted as support/resistance.
Next move: Rejecting this zone could resume the bearish move, with 146.900 as a potential target since it aligns with the partial trend and a key support area. A break above 148.300, however, would question the downside bias.
Monitoring how price reacts around 148.300 to see whether sellers regain control or if the correction deepens.
Trade safe,
Joe.
USDJPY Holds Sideways as Key Japan Data LoomsUSDJPY Holds Sideways as Key Japan Data Looms
USDJPY has been consolidating in a sideways range since August 22, currently forming a Triangle pattern. If the price rebounds from the upper border or confirms a breakout of the lower border, analysts suggest opening a Sell position.
The yen trades near 147.4 per dollar, maintaining a tight range as investors await a series of economic reports. Friday’s data on industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence, along with Tokyo inflation figures, will be closely monitored for signals on Bank of Japan policy.
Over the weekend, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that wages are likely to rise amid a tightening labor market, strengthening expectations for a potential rate hike in the coming months.
At its July meeting, the BOJ kept rates unchanged but raised inflation forecasts and adopted a more optimistic economic outlook.
USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W35 | D28 | Y25📊 USDJPY – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W35 | D28 | Y25
🔍 Daily Forecast | USDJPY
Here’s a concise breakdown of the current chart setup 🧠📈:
📌 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
We wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before executing any position.
This keeps us disciplined, and in sync with what the price action is actually telling us — not what we want it to say.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core Principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Execute only at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan (minimum 1:2)
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take — you're paid for how well you manage risk.
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work for you. 🎯📊
FRGNT
FX:USDJPY
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 28, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure due to the persistent yield differential between the US and Japan and the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to policy normalization. The lack of readiness to tighten quickly supports carry dynamics and keeps USD/JPY near the top of its recent range whenever the dollar is stable.
In the US, expectations for a rate cut this autumn coexist with still-meaningful Treasury yields, limiting near-term JPY strength. Flows into dollar assets under a steady risk backdrop add support, while Japanese data (including Tokyo CPI later this week) could only briefly temper dollar demand unless it surprises decisively.
Our base case is for an orderly push toward 148.000+ provided the news backdrop remains calm and there are no signs of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities. Risk factors include a sharp drop in US yields or renewed “verbal intervention” from Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
Trading recommendation: BUY 147.150, SL 146.650, TP 148.150
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY has rejected the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to our take-profit.
Entry: 148.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 148.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 146.00
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop off?USD/JPY has rejected off the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 147.88
1st Support: 146.40
1st Resistance: 148.88
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bearish & Bullish Reversal entry DetectedTime Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Reversal - 147.800
🩸Bearish Reversal - 148.300
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
XAU/USD | Breakout or Pullback? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, where he hinted at the possibility of upcoming interest rate cuts, gold experienced a strong bullish rally and surged up to $3379! Currently, gold is trading around $3373, and if the price manages to stabilize below $3379, we could expect a potential pullback towards lower levels to fill the FVG area.
However, if the price breaks above $3380, we may see further upside momentum, with the next bullish targets set at $3385 and $3398. This analysis will be updated soon depending on which scenario plays out, so stay tuned for the upcoming updates!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USDJPY — Q3 W35 Mid-Week Forecast Top-Down Analysis | USDJPY — Q3 W35 Mid-Week Forecast - Top-Down Analysis |
mid-week forecast for USDJPY — let’s break it down top to bottom:
🕰️ Weekly Outlook:
No clear structure or trend bias from the weekly candle 🕯️
However, price closed below the Weekly 50 EMA 📉, leaving a bearish upper wick
This signals a possible continuation to the downside this week
But — as always — wicks tend to get filled first on lower timeframes before short setups play out
📌 Key Reminder:
"Sell from the highs, buy from the lows." 🔁
📆 Daily Structure:
Daily candles have been pushing into lower-timeframe POIs
This aligns with potential sell zones, building confluence
If candles continue to push up, we're watching closely for rejection from the Weekly 50 EMA
⚠️ Don’t be thrown off by a bullish weekly candle midweek — we're anticipating a rejection wick and bearish close.
Let structure confirm.
⏱️ Lower Time Frame Confluence:
🔻 Primary Short Bias (High Confidence Zone):
🔸 4H POI containing:
A clean Order Block (OB)
A void (imbalance)
🔹 Within that, a 1H OB + void adds strong confluence 🔐
Once price enters the zone:
⬇️ Scale to 5-min
Wait for Break of Structure (BoS)
Execute the short ✅
🔺 Optional Long Setup (If Structure Shifts):
While short bias is primary, longs are not off the table
A separate POI based on 4H / 1H / 15' exists for a possible long
If price hits this zone:
Wait for LTF BoS (1' or 5')
Consider long entries, only if confluence stacks
🧠 Key Takeaways:
Weekly close below 50 EMA = bearish tilt, but lower timeframe confirmation needed
Let the wicks fill before forcing shorts
Only take longs with strong confluence
As always — one trade at a time, risk managed, confluence stacked
Trade safe, stay disciplined.
FRGNT
FX:USDJPY
USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
The pair has broken its ascending trendline and is now trading below a key resistance zone.
We expect the price to consolidate and complete a pullback toward the broken zone before resuming its decline toward lower support levels.
A strong breakout and daily close above the resistance zone would invalidate the bearish outlook.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
USDJPY resistance at 148.90The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 148.90, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 148.90 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 146.10, followed by 145.40 and 144.60 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 148.90 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 149.75, then 150.20.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 148.90. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDJPY H4 | Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceUSD/JPY is reacting off the sell entry, which acts as a pullback resistance that lines up with he 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 147.86, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 148.73, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 146.34, which is a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USD/JPY Bullish Continuation Towards 149.00This USD/JPY (1H) chart shows a bullish setup:
Price is respecting the ascending channel (support & rejection lines).
Currently, price is near the FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone between 147.257 – 147.526, suggesting a possible retracement before continuation upward.
Both EMA 70 & EMA 200 are aligned closely, acting as dynamic support.
A long entry is expected from the FVG zone with a target point at 148.975 – 149.002.
Stop-loss lies below the FVG around 147.251.
👉 Overall bias: Bullish continuation towards 149.00 after filling the FVG.
USD/JPY: Downtrend Continues with Weak SupportCurrent Situation:
USD/JPY is trading around 147.60, down from its recent high of 148.700. The pair has broken through the key support level at 147.800, opening the possibility for further downside.
Downward Target:
If USD/JPY maintains below 147.800, the downtrend could continue, with the next support levels at 146.800 and 146.300.
Trading Strategy:
Prioritize selling on any bounce towards 147.500–147.800. Set the target at 146.800 and 146.300, with a stop loss above 148.00 for risk management.
Supporting News:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, signaled that the Fed may ease tightening sooner if the labor market weakens. This has led to a decline in U.S. bond yields and a weaker USD, providing favorable conditions for JPY to strengthen.
USDJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USDJPY is below:
The market is trading on 147.26 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 147.57
Recommended Stop Loss - 147.09
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY – Downward Pressure Aiming Straight At 146.000?📉 USDJPY Under Pressure – Could the Drop Extend to 146.000 and Beyond?
The US Dollar continues to weaken across the board, and USDJPY is now showing strong bearish momentum on the H2 timeframe. The chart highlights several critical Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and liquidity zones that could guide price action in the coming sessions.
📊 Technical Outlook (H2):
Recent rejection confirms supply pressure, opening the door for a deeper retracement.
Key FVG Zone between 148.57 – 149.52 acts as a short-term supply area.
As long as price trades below this zone, bearish continuation remains in play.
🔑 Levels to Watch:
147.94 – minor reaction zone.
146.56 – 146.03 → strong demand / liquidity pool; price may test these levels soon.
A clean break below 146.00 could open the path toward deeper downside targets.
⚡ What This Means:
With USD weakness persisting, USDJPY could face another significant leg lower. Traders should monitor liquidity grabs and confirmations around the 146.xx zone for potential setups.
🔥 Do you see USDJPY holding the 146.00 demand area, or will the sell-off accelerate further?
👇 Share your view in the comments!






















