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USD/JPY Bearish Channel Breakdown – Order Block Retest StrategyThe pair is clearly in a downtrend channel (bearish parallel channel). Price has been respecting lower highs and lower lows, indicating consistent bearish pressure. The recent bearish order block (OB) and support retest area are the key zones. --- 📉 Chart Structure Analysis 1. Bearish Channel: Price continues to move inside a well-defined descending channel. Each pullback toward the upper boundary has been followed by a new lower low. 2. Support Zone: The price is currently testing a support level near 151.00. There’s a temporary pause here — possibly a minor liquidity grab before further downside. 3. Bearish Order Block (OB): The OB is around 151.700–152.000, acting as a strong supply zone. If price retraces back to this OB, sellers might re-enter with strong momentum. 🔍 Strategy Plan ✅ Bearish Scenario (Most Probable) Expect a retest of the OB zone (151.700–152.000) before continuing down. Once rejection appears (bearish engulfing / pin bar / break of structure on smaller TF), enter Sell. Target: 149.700 (previous swing projection). Stop-loss: Above OB at 152.200. Trade Setup Example: Entry: 151.800 (OB retest) SL: 152.200 (40 pips) TP: 149.700 (210 pips) Risk/Reward: ≈ 1:5.2 ✅ ⚠ Bullish Scenario (Low Probability If price breaks above 152.200 with strong bullish candles and retests it as support, the bearish channel is invalidated → next target could be 153.000–153.500. 📊 Confirmation Tips Before entering: Check for bearish rejection candles on the 15m–30m timeframe. Confirm with RSI divergence (bearish) or MACD crossover downward. Watch DXY strength — if the dollar weakens, USD/JPY will likely drop. 🧭 Summary Bias Entry Zone Stop Loss Target R:R Confidence 🔻 Bearish 151.7–152.0 152.2 149.7 1:5+ High
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
1
USD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure FOREXCOM:USDJPY USD/JPY is trading near 151.70, consolidating after recent declines. The chart highlights a resistance zone at 152.28–152.39 and a support zone at 151.05–151.18. A short-term rebound toward resistance is possible, but failure at the resistance zone could trigger a downside move back to support. A break below 151.05 would open the door to deeper losses. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: 152.28–152.39 (sell near resistance) Stop Loss: 152.50 Take Profit 1: 151.40 Take Profit 2: 151.18 Take Profit 3: 151.05 Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 4.96 🗝️ Key Technical Levels Support Zone: 151.05–151.18 Resistance Zone: 152.28–152.39 Trendline Resistance: Downtrend from October highs 🌍 Macro Background The Japanese Yen gained modest support after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned of one-sided FX moves, fueling speculation of possible intervention. Expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise rates later this year also underpin the yen. However, political uncertainty following the LDP–Komeito coalition breakup and the pending confirmation of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female Prime Minister adds risks, possibly slowing BoJ’s tightening. On the US side, Trump softened his tariff stance after previously threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese imports effective November 1, easing trade-war fears and supporting risk appetite. The US Dollar remains firm near recent highs, but dovish Fed rate cut expectations (25 bps in October and December, with 97% and 90% odds respectively) limit further upside. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has dragged into a third week, delaying key economic data releases. The market focus is now on Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could provide the next directional driver. 📌 Trade Summary USD/JPY is capped by 152.39 resistance. Short positions near this zone could offer favourable setups, targeting 151.17–151.05 support levels. A clear break above 152.55 would invalidate the bearish outlook. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
USD/JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (1H) chart shows a bearish SMC (Smart Money Concept) setup — here’s the idea breakdown --- Trade Idea: Bearish Setup — USD/JPY Market Context Price has been in a strong bullish trend, reaching a local high near 152.35. Recently, the price broke structure to the downside, signaling potential shift from bullish to bearish order flow. --- Key Technical Points 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Break The chart marks an FVG break zone around 152.30–152.45. This zone acts as a premium re-entry area where institutional traders may rebalance orders before pushing price lower. 2. Rejection Zone (Supply Area) Price is currently retracing back into the FVG zone, forming potential lower-high structure. Expect rejection confirmation (bearish candle / liquidity sweep) before continuation down. 3. Bearish Continuation Expectation After the retest, price is projected to drop toward the lower demand zone / target point around 150.25. That area aligns with previous demand / liquidity pool, a likely point for profit-taking or reversal. --- Trade Plan Entry: Wait for bearish rejection or liquidity sweep inside the 152.30–152.45 zone. Stop Loss: Above 152.50 (above FVG high). Take Profit: Around 150.25 target zone (major demand area). Mr SMC Trading point --- Market Logic The structure shows: Break of structure (BOS) confirming bearish shift. Fair Value Gap retest for premium entry. Liquidity targeting at the lower demand zone. This setup follows institutional flow — sell after retracement, target imbalance fill. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
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by SMC-Trading-Point
1
USD/JPY: Bearish Drop to 147.82?FX:USDJPY is signaling a bearish move on the 4-hour chart, with an entry zone between 150.4-150.92 near a key resistance level. The target at 147.82 aligns with strong support, offering a clear downside play. Set a stop loss on a c lose above 151.135 to manage risk effectively. 🌟 A break below 149.3 with solid volume could confirm this drop, driven by JPY strength and USD softening. Watch Bank of Japan updates! 💡 📝 Trade Plan: ✅ Entry Zone: 150.40 – 150.92 (resistance area) ❌ Stop Loss: Daily close above 151.135 to manage risk 🎯 Target: 147.82 (strong support) Ready for this move? Drop your take below! 👇
Short
by Master_Hunter
1
USDJPY: Waiting for a pullback to sell at resistanceThis could be a position trade in anticipation of a larger downtrend on the daily timeframe, but there's risk involved due to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report this Friday. * Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide. ** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals. *** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion. **** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it. Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨ George Vann @ ZuperView
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by ZuperView
USDJPY continue to fall!With recent BOJ Monetary Polciy states and, with further assurance with Ueda's speech JPY interest rates could continue to remain significantly lower which keeping jpy again a choice of safe heaven as usual. Current rate cut on USD has lowered the USDJPY down that past week was a big drop below daily head & shoulder. As with the current pullback price is approaching monthly high which is also aligning with the 4h key level of resistance and a high liquidity zone. There is a high chance for the price to continue to drop to key level of resistance and, a possible sell zone with higher probability to drop to longer term support level.
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by ForexWizard01
JPY Futures - Can We Take Out The 3rd ExoFade PeakTo clear any confusing for those that dont know, 6J Futures aka JPY/USD, is the inverse of your regular USD/JPY. Got it? It's currently in a strong uptrend, since the dollar is in a free fall. We've been taking out the ExoFade peaks and the trend looks juicy. Taking the 3rd pullback bounce of a uptrend is not my favorite thing to do cos each time you get a bounce, the probably of the next of failing goes up significantly cos sellers need to feed their families too lol. The first bounce in a new uptrend has a higher success rate and with much lower risk required. The ExoFade peaks are great for setting price targets and prediction, and we can see the last 2 peaks we're successfully taken out. If the trends momentum stays intact, i expect us to take out the 3rd one as predicted. London session is in a couple of hours, which will inject more volatility and we have unemployment news in the morning, which can disrupt the trend. We'll see how it goes.
CME:6J1!Long
by ExoProtocol
USDJPY Bearish Setup Looking at the USDJPY 4H chart, the pair has recently completed a strong bullish run but is now showing signs of exhaustion at the top. Price touched resistance around 150.90 – 151.00, a key supply zone that has historically triggered heavy selling pressure. From there, a sharp rejection candle formed, sending the pair back below 149.90, confirming that sellers are defending this region aggressively. Structurally, this pullback is more than just profit-taking. The rejection created a potential lower high, which often signals the beginning of a trend reversal when combined with heavy rejection wicks and volume. Moreover, the 149.95 – 150.90 zone now acts as a major ceiling, while downside liquidity is sitting near 146.30 – 145.50, suggesting room for bears to push further. Momentum indicators (based on the chart flow) show weakening bullish strength, with back-to-back red candles confirming that sellers are stepping in with conviction. If price sustains below 148.70 – 148.80, the bearish wave is likely to continue. 📉 Trade Setup (Bearish): • Entry: $148.70 – $148.80 🔻 • Stop Loss: $150.90 ❌ (above recent high & resistance zone) • Target 1: $146.30 🎯 • Target 2: $145.50 🔥 • Target 3 (extended): $144.80 🏆 The setup offers a clean risk-to-reward of ~1:2.5, with downside potential outweighing the upside risk. If sellers maintain control, the drop toward 145.50 could be quick, as this area has acted as a strong liquidity pool in the past. In short, USDJPY looks ready for a corrective bearish leg after hitting a key resistance zone, and short positions remain favorable as long as price stays capped under 150.90.
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by SupertradeOfficial
USD/JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY Bearish Continuation Setup (1H Timeframe) --- Chart Summary: Pair: USD/JPY Timeframe: 1H Exchange: IC Markets Current Price: 147.856 EMA 50: 148.439 (resistance) EMA 200: 148.396 (resistance) --- Key Observations: 1. Downtrend Structure Price is consistently making lower highs and lower lows. Both EMA 50 and EMA 200 are above price, acting as dynamic resistance. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Supply Zone Price is expected to retrace into the 148.30–148.45 zone. This aligns with both EMAs, creating a confluence resistance area. 3. Bearish Projection After retest of the FVG zone, sellers are expected to push price lower. Measured move shows potential continuation down to the 146.933 target point. 4. Momentum Previous strong bearish candles indicate heavy selling pressure. Weak retracements suggest buyers are losing strength. Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: The chart signals a bearish continuation: Scenario 1 (Preferred): Price retests the 148.30–148.45 FVG zone and rejects → downside continuation to 146.93 target. Scenario 2 (Invalidation): A strong close above 148.50 would invalidate this bearish setup and shift bias to neutral/bullish. --- please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
10
USD/ JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (1H) chart idea breakdown from your image: --- USD/JPY – Bearish Setup (1H Timeframe) Market Structure: After a strong bullish rally, price has rejected from 149.6–150.0 zone and shifted bearish. Price is currently trading below the 50 EMA (148.98) and testing around the 200 EMA (148.45) → showing weakening momentum. Two Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are highlighted: Upper FVG (resistance supply zone) near 149.1 – 149.3. Mid FVG near 148.8 – 149.0, likely a retest area before continuation down. Price Projection: Expecting a possible short-term pullback into the yellow FVG zone → rejection from 148.9–149.1. Bearish continuation could drive price toward the target point: 147.46. This aligns with the projected measured move shown on the chart. Indicators: 50 EMA (red) turning down → confirming bearish shift. 200 EMA (blue) being tested → a break below strengthens bearish case. Mr SMC Trading point --- Bias: Bearish Target: 147.46 Invalidation: A strong break and hold above 149.3 (FVG supply) --- Pelas support boost 🚀 this analysis
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by SMC-Trading-Point
USD/JPY) Bearish Trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY (1H timeframe) chart analysis: --- Bearish USD/JPY Setup Rejection at Resistance: Multiple rejections (red arrows) show strong selling pressure around 149.70 – 149.80 zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price may retest the FVG supply area before continuing lower. Moving Averages: 50 EMA (red) is turning flat, showing short-term weakness. 200 EMA (blue) is below, acting as the larger support zone. Market Structure Shift (MSS): Breakdown of recent support suggests bearish intent. --- Target Point Expected drop towards 148.38 – 148.37 (aligned with 200 EMA & previous demand zone). Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Idea Bias: Bearish. Entry Zone: Retest of 149.60 – 149.70 (FVG). Target: 148.38. Invalidation: A break above 150.00 would invalidate the bearish outlook. Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USDJPY Tight Range, Bearish Pressure Building Below TrendlineUSDJPY continues to trade inside a broad descending channel, with sellers stepping in near the 148.20–148.50 region once again. Despite short-term rebounds, the pair struggles to maintain momentum above resistance, signaling that bearish pressure remains intact. A break below near-term supports could open the way for a deeper move toward 145.50. Current Bias Bearish – short-term rejection at trendline resistance points to downside continuation unless bulls reclaim 148.50. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: Softer U.S. data and cooling inflation have increased expectations for rate cuts later this year, weighing on USD strength. Bank of Japan: Still holding an ultra-loose stance, but higher JGB yields and speculation about eventual policy tweaks are helping limit yen weakness. Risk Sentiment: Equity pullbacks or tariff-related shocks can drive safe-haven demand for JPY, putting additional pressure on USDJPY. Macro Context Interest Rates: U.S. yields are softer as markets price in Fed easing; Japanese yields are edging higher, narrowing the yield gap. Growth Trends: U.S. growth momentum is slowing, while Japan’s economy remains fragile but stable. Geopolitics: Trade tensions and tariff headlines add uncertainty and may amplify yen demand in risk-off phases. Primary Risk to the Trend A sudden rebound in U.S. yields or stronger U.S. inflation prints could lift the dollar back above 148.50, invalidating the bearish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. PCE inflation data FOMC speeches regarding rate-cut timing Japanese CPI release Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDJPY is often a leader within yen pairs, driving sentiment across JPY crosses. Movements here influence EURJPY, GBPJPY, and CADJPY. Key Levels Support Levels: 147.05, 145.52 Resistance Levels: 148.20, 149.25 Stop Loss (SL): 149.25 (above key resistance) Take Profit (TP): 147.05 (first target), 145.52 (secondary target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDJPY remains capped under trendline resistance, keeping the bias bearish as long as 148.50–149.25 holds. Stops above 149.25 protect against a breakout, while downside targets rest at 147.05 and then 145.52. The main watchpoint is U.S. inflation data and Fed commentary—if they confirm easing, sellers could gain control and extend the decline. Conversely, a surprise hawkish shift could trigger a squeeze higher.
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by ultreosforex
4
USDJPY setting up for a drop!Series of lower highs with multiple liquidity grab from the trend line, with respecting dynamic resistance 20ema showing up the market to potentially continue to drop through the daily FVG. With upcoming Fed rate cut decision made dollar weaker, while BOJ policy rate on Friday causing to JPYX move up for correction which also fueling USDJPY to drop. Based on current market structure on 1h timeframe, A potential sell entry upon price action confirmation around 146.48 zone is an ara of value for sell entry!
Short
by ForexWizard01
2