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USDJPY weekly analysis: AM NEVER WRONG IN THE DIRECTION EVER !!USDJPY Weekly Analysis (27/09/2024): Slightly Bullish Bias Ahead As we approach the end of September 2024, USDJPY has shown signs of a potential bullish bias for the upcoming week. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the latest fundamental factors that could shape the pair's movement. In this article, we will provide a detailed analysis of USDJPY’s outlook, focusing on the driving factors, current market conditions, and why we expect a slightly bullish bias this week. Key Fundamental Drivers Behind the USDJPY Bullish Outlook 1. Diverging Monetary Policies One of the main reasons for the slightly bullish bias in USDJPY this week is the ongoing divergence between the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Fed has maintained its relatively hawkish stance, keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflation. In contrast, the BoJ continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, with little indication of tightening any time soon. The widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan is pushing investors towards the U.S. dollar, favoring the USDJPY pair. This dynamic is likely to continue in the coming days as the market digests recent central bank communications. 2. U.S. Economic Resilience Recent U.S. economic data has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for the dollar. The U.S. GDP figures, released earlier this week, showed that the economy grew at a faster pace than anticipated, further solidifying the case for the Fed's tight policy stance. Additionally, strong job market data continues to support the idea of a resilient U.S. economy, boosting demand for the USD. With these positive economic indicators, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain supported, potentially driving USDJPY higher. 3. Safe Haven Demand Easing While the Japanese yen is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, the recent stabilization in global financial markets has reduced the appeal of the yen as a risk-off asset. Investors are currently more willing to take on risk in search of higher yields, which benefits the U.S. dollar. The calm in global markets, combined with Japan’s low-interest environment, reduces the attractiveness of the yen, giving USDJPY a bullish tilt. Current Market Conditions: USDJPY Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a consolidation range, but recent price action hints at an upward breakout. The pair has held above the key 148.00 support level, with momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing signs of strengthening bullish momentum. If USDJPY breaks above the 149.00 resistance level this week, we could see further gains toward the psychological 150.00 level. However, traders should watch for any signs of overbought conditions, which could lead to short-term pullbacks. Key Risks to Consider While the fundamental and technical factors point to a slightly bullish bias, it is essential to be aware of potential risks that could derail this outlook: - U.S. Government Shutdown: Ongoing discussions about a potential U.S. government shutdown could introduce market volatility. If the shutdown is prolonged, it could lead to risk-off sentiment, favoring the yen as a safe haven and weakening USDJPY. - Geopolitical Developments: Any sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions could boost safe-haven demand for the yen, putting downward pressure on USDJPY. Conclusion: Slight Bullish Bias for USDJPY this Week Based on the latest fundamental drivers and current market conditions, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slightly bullish bias this week. The diverging monetary policies between the Fed and BoJ, coupled with strong U.S. economic data and easing safe-haven demand, are likely to keep the pair supported. However, traders should stay vigilant for potential risks that could affect the outlook. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 148.00 Resistance: 149.00 and 150.00 As always, manage risk carefully and stay updated on market developments throughout the week. Keep an eye on the U.S. government situation and any central bank announcements that could shift market sentiment. For more updates and detailed analysis on USDJPY and other currency pairs, follow me on TradingView. Keywords: - USDJPY analysis - USDJPY forecast 27/09/2024 - USDJPY weekly outlook - USDJPY bullish bias - USDJPY key levels - USDJPY trading strategy - USDJPY technical analysis - USDJPY support and resistance - Federal Reserve and USDJPY - Bank of Japan impact on USDJPY - USDJPY interest rate differential - USDJPY trading signals - USDJPY market conditions - USDJPY forex analysis - USDJPY price action - USDJPY technical indicators - USDJPY consolidation pattern - USDJPY breakout levels - USDJPY trade opportunities - Forex trading USDJPY
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Prevails as Key Drivers !!USDJPY Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Prevails as Key Drivers Influence the Pair Introduction As we analyze USDJPY on 25/09/2024, the pair continues to display a slightly bullish bias driven by both fundamental and technical factors. This article delves into the current USDJPY market conditions, shedding light on the key drivers influencing the pair and offering insights into what traders should watch out for this week. Interest Rate Differentials One of the primary factors maintaining a bullish outlook for USDJPY is the persistent divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Federal Reserve remains firm on its hawkish stance, signaling the likelihood of keeping interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation. In contrast, the BoJ continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining negative interest rates to support its economic recovery. This rate differential remains a significant factor, supporting dollar strength against the yen. U.S. Economic Resilience The U.S. economy has showcased resilience in recent economic data, with robust employment numbers and GDP growth exceeding market expectations. Such data solidifies the Fed's justification for maintaining its tight monetary policy stance. As the U.S. dollar strengthens on the back of these economic developments, the yen has struggled to maintain ground, further contributing to USDJPY's bullish trend. Bank of Japan’s Dovish Stance The BoJ's commitment to its yield curve control (YCC) program and low-interest rates continues to weigh heavily on the yen. Recent statements from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda have not indicated any significant shift toward tightening, which markets interpret as a continuation of yen weakness. The lack of immediate inflationary pressures in Japan has allowed the BoJ to maintain its accommodative policies, contributing to the weaker yen and supporting USDJPY’s upward momentum. Geopolitical Uncertainty Another factor influencing the USDJPY pair is the current geopolitical landscape. Rising global uncertainties, particularly in Europe and China, have prompted investors to seek the relative safety of the U.S. dollar. This increased demand for the greenback has provided additional support to USDJPY’s bullish trajectory. Investors are wary of holding riskier assets, preferring currencies backed by strong economies like the U.S., especially in times of uncertainty. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, USDJPY remains in a bullish trend on the daily chart. The pair is trading above its key moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signaling upward momentum. Additionally, RSI levels indicate that the pair has not yet entered overbought territory, suggesting there is room for further gains. Resistance at the 150.00 level remains a key psychological point, while support can be seen around 147.50, should any corrective movement occur. Outlook for the Week The USDJPY outlook for this week remains moderately bullish due to the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the BoJ's dovish approach. Traders should monitor key U.S. data releases, including inflation and labor market figures, as these will influence the Fed's decision-making and impact the pair’s movement. Similarly, any unexpected statements from BoJ officials could shift market sentiment toward the yen, but at this point, such a scenario seems unlikely. Conclusion In summary, USDJPY continues to maintain a slightly bullish bias for the week of 25/09/2024. The rate differential between the Fed and BoJ, coupled with the U.S. economy's resilience, supports the dollar's strength against the yen. While technical factors also align with the bullish sentiment, traders should remain vigilant for any developments that could alter the balance between these two currencies. The USDJPY pair is poised for further upward movement, with key levels of support and resistance to be closely watched as the week progresses. Keywords for SEO: USDJPY forecast USDJPY technical analysis USDJPY 25/09/2024 USDJPY weekly outlook USDJPY market conditions U.S. dollar vs Japanese yen Bullish USDJPY bias Bank of Japan dovish policy Federal Reserve interest rates Forex trading analysis USDJPY trading strategies Forex market forecast
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Analysis for the Week of 24th September 2024: 150.000 !!The USDJPY pair has been a subject of interest in the forex market as it approaches a critical psychological level of 150.000. Traders are speculating whether the pair could reach this target given the current fundamental and technical landscape. In this article, we will analyze the potential for a slightly bullish bias for USDJPY this week, supported by key market drivers and macroeconomic factors. Fundamental Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias: 1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance on Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent weeks, reinforced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, suggests that further interest rate hikes are on the table. This has led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen. With inflationary pressures still evident in the U.S. economy, the market is pricing in another rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rates increase the yield on U.S. assets, making them more attractive to global investors, which directly supports the USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan's Ultra-loose Monetary Policy: In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, keeping its interest rates in negative territory. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the bank will remain accommodative until inflation sustainably reaches its 2% target, which still seems distant. This divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies is a major driver of the USDJPY bullish momentum, and it is expected to continue fueling the pair’s rise toward the 150.000 level. 3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields: U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily, with the 10-year yield nearing the 4.5% mark, its highest level in years. This surge is indicative of market expectations for prolonged high interest rates in the U.S., which adds further upward pressure on the dollar. Historically, higher U.S. Treasury yields have a direct correlation with USDJPY strength as global investors seek higher returns on their investments. 4. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are contributing to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, adding to its bullish momentum. While the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, the growing demand for the dollar due to the U.S. economy’s relative strength and higher yields is tipping the balance in favor of USDJPY bulls. 5. Japanese Intervention Risks: As the USDJPY approaches the 150.000 level, market participants are wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to stem yen depreciation. However, recent remarks from Japanese officials suggest that intervention is not imminent unless volatility becomes disorderly. Until intervention threats materialize, the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be upward. Technical Analysis: On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the daily chart. The pair is currently testing resistance near the 149.50-149.80 zone, with 150.000 acting as the next psychological target. A sustained break above 150.000 could pave the way for further gains, with potential resistance around 151.50 and 152.00. Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are approaching overbought territory, suggesting that while the bullish trend is strong, there may be some short-term consolidation before a decisive move beyond 150.000. Nonetheless, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support seen around 148.50. Conclusion: Given the current fundamental and technical landscape, USDJPY is poised to maintain a slightly bullish bias this week. The combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve, a dovish Bank of Japan, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty supports further upside for the pair. While intervention risks may temper gains, a move toward and possibly beyond the 150.000 level seems achievable in the near term. SEO Keywords: USDJPY analysis USDJPY forecast USDJPY bullish bias USDJPY 150.000 target U.S. dollar strength Federal Reserve interest rates Bank of Japan policy USDJPY technical analysis USDJPY fundamental drivers USDJPY September 2024 analysis
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23,2024USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23, 2024 The USDJPY pair has been a focal point for traders, and as we enter the week of September 23, 2024, a slightly bullish bias seems to be developing. Several key factors suggest that the US Dollar (USD) could continue to edge higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by fundamental and technical market conditions. This article provides an in-depth analysis, highlighting critical elements affecting USDJPY this week. Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Bias for USDJPY 1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance The primary driver for the USD strength is the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy stance. With the central bank signaling that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period, the US Dollar has found solid support. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may hike rates again in the near future, which tends to strengthen the USD. Higher interest rates in the U.S. make the dollar more attractive to investors compared to the low-yielding Japanese Yen, which still sits in a negative interest rate environment. 2. BOJ's Ultra-Dovish Policy The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no significant shifts expected in the near term. This dovish stance puts pressure on the Japanese Yen, especially as other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are moving toward tighter monetary policies. The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the BOJ remains a significant factor driving USDJPY higher. 3. US Economic Strength Recent U.S. economic data has shown resilience, with key indicators such as employment figures, retail sales, and inflation trends supporting the idea that the economy is in a solid position. This economic strength underpins the USD's upward trajectory. The robust economic outlook increases the likelihood of sustained monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, further bolstering the USD. 4. Safe-Haven Flows Favoring USD Over JPY While the Japanese Yen has traditionally been a safe-haven currency, the USD has increasingly taken on that role in times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth, the USD has been more appealing to investors seeking safety, diminishing the Yen's haven status. This factor adds to the bullish momentum for USDJPY. 5. Technical Factors Supporting USDJPY From a technical standpoint, USDJPY has been trading in a bullish channel, with higher highs and higher lows observed on the daily chart. Key support levels around 148.00 have held strong, providing a base for potential upside movement. On the upside, a break above the 149.50 resistance could trigger further gains, targeting the psychological level of 150.00. Conclusion: USDJPY Slightly Bullish This Week In conclusion, USDJPY is expected to exhibit a slightly bullish bias this week, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, the BOJ’s dovish approach, and the relative strength of the US economy. Safe-haven flows are also favoring the USD over the Yen, while technical factors suggest room for further upside. As we navigate the markets this week, traders should closely monitor central bank commentary, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments, as these will likely shape USDJPY’s trajectory in the coming days. SEO Keywords: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish bias, USDJPY September 23 2024, Federal Reserve USDJPY impact, BOJ monetary policy, USDJPY technical analysis, US dollar strength, USDJPY interest rate divergence, USDJPY safe-haven flows, USDJPY trading strategy.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupThe price has fallen under the dynamic support, which now acts as resistance. We expect the decline to continue after testing the lower boundary of the channel. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Short
by TheGrove
6
USDJPY I Yen jumps on suspected intervention - more downsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2
USDJPY I Testing monthly lows as traders stay bearishWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2
USDJPY 23June2023if you look at the elliot notation and fibo extension placement, then wave 3 is right at 1.618, which means wave 3 is already 1.6x longer than wave 1. I want to predict where the USDJPY price moves using the fibo extension, and it could be that the price goes to the fibo extension of 1.618 as well. if you look at the trendline, there is a possibility that the price will respond positively to the trendline, which also meets the fibo extension area. I think this notation is quite correct, because wave 3 is not the shortest wave. as evidenced by the price at 1,618, and wave 5 could be a bullish continuation, this type of bullish can run for quite a long time. if you want to go short, it's better to wait for a fairly positive bearish confirmation.
by Hokusai_FX
USDJPY possible sell zoneCurrency Pair : USDJPY Possible direction : Bearish Technical Analysis : After a strong breakdown on the daily ( strongly influenced by JPY strength) USDJPY currently forming a symmetrical triangle which may break to the downside again as this may continue to trend to the downside to test the long term order block. From higher timeframe we can see possible downward move and, therefore, this price may continue to drop after liquidity grab from short term resistance zone. Fundamental : Silicon Valley Bank collapsed has given safe heaven JPY strong boost. Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch Press like button if you enjoy. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage is dangerous and can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or any market you should carefully consider your investment goals, level of experience, and risk tolerance. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that you will sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown. You acknowledge and agree that no promise or guarantee of success or profitability has been made between you, and Forex Trading Wizard. Do your own research and talk to a professional financial planner in order to be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and investing and seek advice from an independent financial advisor before risking any capital.
Short
by ForexWizard01
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY - As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. The dollar has strengthened after the December FOMC. All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to the OFF of MARKET RISK. With the arrival of FED UPDATES POSITIVE USD BUY again. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But the UPDATES of BANK OF JAPAN are quite - There is definitely a very high possibility that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 135.61 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 126.46 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
by benny_marshall
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY - As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. The dollar has strengthened after the December FOMC. All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to the OFF of MARKET RISK. With the arrival of FED UPDATES POSITIVE USD BUY again. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But the UPDATES of BANK OF JAPAN are quite - There is definitely a high possibility that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 133.67 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 126.46 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
by benny_marshall