Get started

USDKRW

Is South Korea Financing Its Own Currency Collapse?The South Korean Won (KRW) is unraveling. Trading at 1,465.5 against the US Dollar (USD), the currency has shed over 7% of its value in the second half of 2025. While Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol publicly vowed stability this Wednesday, his "bland" delivery and lack of concrete policy measures sent a chilling signal to global investors: Seoul is out of ammunition. The forces driving the USD/KRW pair higher are no longer just macroeconomic—they are structural, geopolitical, and deeply rooted in the technology sector. Macroeconomics & Policy: The "Bland" Defense Minister Koo’s refusal to implement tax benefits for repatriating exporter earnings exposes a critical policy gap. Koo admitted that the market reacts hypersensitively to global uncertainty, yet his proposed solution—a consultative body with the National Pension Service (NPS)—lacks immediate bite. The NPS, the world's third-largest pension fund, is ostensibly a stabilizing force. However, its mandate to maximize returns drives it to aggressively accumulate dollar-denominated assets, exacerbating the very weakness the government seeks to curb. The Bank of Korea’s expected decision to hold interest rates on Thursday further cements the paralysis, trapped between a volatile currency and an overheating housing market. Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Cost of Alliances The Won’s depreciation is the collateral damage of South Korea’s geostrategic pivot. A looming trade deal with the United States includes a massive investment package requiring Korean conglomerates to deploy capital into American soil. This structural capital outflow creates persistent demand for dollars that no short-term intervention can offset. Simultaneously, regional tensions with North Korea and trade disputes involving China have eroded the Won’s status as a stable proxy for Asian growth. Investors are pricing in the risk of South Korea becoming an economic frontline state. Industry Trends & Business Models: The Export Paradox South Korean industry is decoupling its success from its currency. The traditional model—weak currency boosts exports—is failing. While orders for transport equipment and machinery have risen, the value is captured in rising manufacturing costs driven by tariffs on imported raw materials. Major conglomerates (Chaebols) are shifting from "Made in Korea" to "Made by Korea in the USA." This business model evolution means record corporate profits no longer translate into domestic currency demand, as earnings are increasingly retained offshore to fund global operations. Technology & Science: The Innovation Deficit Despite South Korea’s reputation as a high-tech powerhouse, the underlying mechanics of its innovation sector hurt the currency. High-Tech Arbitrage: Korean firms are aggressively acquiring US-based AI and biotech startups to bypass domestic regulatory hurdles. This M&A activity requires selling Won to buy Dollars. Science & R&D: While domestic R&D spending is high, the commercialization of breakthrough science increasingly relies on global supply chains priced in USD. Patent Analysis & Cyber Landscape A deep dive into 2025 patent filings reveals a disturbing trend for the Won. While the volume of patents filed by Korean entities remains high, the citation impact—a proxy for value—is highest in software and cybersecurity technologies dominated by US firms. Intellectual Property: Korean tech giants are paying record licensing fees for American foundational AI models and cybersecurity protocols. Cyber Defense: Escalating state-sponsored cyber threats have forced Korean financial institutions to upgrade infrastructure using imported, dollar-priced security solutions, further draining foreign reserves. Management, Leadership & Company Culture A cultural shift in corporate leadership is accelerating capital flight. A new generation of Chaebol management prioritizes global diversification over national loyalty. Unlike their predecessors, who repatriated earnings to build domestic empires, today’s leaders view the US market as the safest harbor for capital. This "herd-like behavior," which Minister Koo criticized, is a rational response to perceived domestic stagnation. Even retail investors are abandoning local equities for US tech stocks, signaling a total loss of confidence in the domestic market's growth potential. Conclusion: No Floor in Sight The USD/KRW increase is not a temporary fluctuation; it is a structural repricing of South Korea's economic future. Without a radical shift in policy that incentivizes capital repatriation or a sudden geopolitical thaw, the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should ignore the rhetoric from Sejong City and focus on the flows: money is leaving the peninsula, and it isn't coming back soon.
Long
by the5erstrading
USD/KRW: A Major Decision PointWhat This Chart Shows The US dollar vs Korean won exchange rate has been moving between two key trend lines for over 40 years: Bottom line (blue): Rising support since the 1980s Top line (blue): Falling resistance since the 1998 financial crisis Current rate: 1,432.91 won per dollar Why It Matters Now These two lines are meeting right now, creating a "squeeze" pattern. When this happens, the price usually breaks out strongly in one direction. Two Possible Outcomes Scenario 1 (Orange arrow) - Dollar Strengthens Breaks above the top line Could rise toward 2,000+ won per dollar Korean won gets weaker Scenario 2 (Blue arrow) - Dollar Weakens Breaks below the bottom line Could fall toward 1,300 won per dollar Korean won gets stronger Bottom Line After 40+ years of back-and-forth movement, the exchange rate is at a critical turning point. The direction it breaks will likely set the trend for years to come. Traders and investors are watching closely to see which way it goes.
by iworkist
The key is whether it can fall below 1453.08 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (USDKRW 12M chart) The exchange rate has already been on an upward trend. - (1M chart) The point to watch is whether it can fall below 1439.94 and then break through the rising channel indicated by the circle. If not, it can rise along the rising trend line. - (1W chart) The point to watch is whether it can fall below 1439.94 and fall below the rising trend line. Support range is 1st: 1422.72-1439.94 2nd: 1354.50-1372.40 If the decline continues, it is likely to be supported near the 1st or 2nd above. - (1D chart) In order to turn into a short-term downtrend, it must fall after encountering resistance at the 1453.08 point. Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after encountering resistance near 1453.08. If not, and it goes up, 1st: 1468.42 2nd: 1494.70 You need to check if you can get resistance near the 1st and 2nd above. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
Could South Korea's Currency Crisis Signal a New Economic ParadiIn a dramatic turn of events that echoes the turbulence of 2009, the South Korean won has plummeted to historic lows, breaching the critical KRW1,450 threshold against the US dollar. This seismic shift in currency markets isn't merely a numerical milestone—it represents a complex interplay of global monetary policy shifts and domestic political dynamics that could reshape our understanding of emerging market vulnerabilities in an interconnected world. The Federal Reserve's recent "hawkish cut" has created a fascinating paradox: while lowering rates, it simultaneously signaled a more conservative approach to future reductions than markets anticipated. This nuanced stance, combined with South Korea's domestic political turbulence following President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief martial law declaration, has created a perfect storm that challenges conventional wisdom about currency stability in advanced emerging economies. The won's position as this year's worst-performing emerging Asian currency raises profound questions about the resilience of regional economic frameworks in the face of complex global pressures. What makes this situation particularly intriguing is the response from South Korean authorities, who have deployed sophisticated market stabilization measures, including an expanded foreign exchange swap line of $65 billion with the National Pension Service. This adaptive response showcases how modern economic management requires increasingly creative solutions to maintain stability in an era where traditional monetary policy tools may no longer suffice. As markets digest these developments, the situation is a compelling case study of how developed economies navigate the delicate balance between market forces and regulatory intervention in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape.
Long
by UDIS_View
S. Korea Central Bank Maintains Rates, Hints at Future EasingKey Points: The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% for the 12th consecutive meeting, marking the longest such streak on record. Despite the hold, the BoK signaled a potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance, suggesting rate cuts could be forthcoming if inflation and financial market conditions stabilize. Recent data indicates inflation is moderating, with headline inflation expected to fall below the 2.6% target, and core inflation on track to meet the 2.2% projection. The BoK acknowledges a slowdown in domestic growth but anticipates strong export performance to offset this weakness. Shifting Focus: A notable shift in the BoK's focus is evident, with financial stability taking center stage alongside inflation control. Governor Rhee Chang-Yong expressed concern about the rapid rise in household debt and housing prices, highlighting the potential risks to financial stability. The BoK acknowledges that addressing these issues may require coordinated efforts with the government beyond just monetary policy measures. Market Expectations and Policy Outlook: The market remains divided on the timing of the first rate cut, with forecasts ranging from August to October. The current sentiment leans towards a potential cut in October. The BoK will likely wait for further confirmation of inflation's sustained return to the 2% target before implementing any policy changes. High household debt levels and a depreciating Korean Won (down 7% against the USD) remain significant challenges that could delay rate cuts. Analysts suggest the BoK is preparing for a policy shift towards easing, potentially around October, but remains cautious due to lingering economic uncertainties and the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Conclusion: The Bank of Korea's cautious approach reflects a commitment to balancing inflation control with safeguarding financial stability. While inflation shows signs of easing, the central bank will likely prioritize managing risks associated with household debt and currency weakness before embarking on a rate-cutting cycle. The BoK's future policy decisions will hinge on forthcoming economic data, particularly inflation and growth figures, as well as the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Long
by MorMedia
8 Good Reasons To Short USDFive world-class investors that are bearish on USD... 1) Ray Dalio “You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time. If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline." www.marketwatch.com 2) Stephen Roach "The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession" “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit” “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” markets.businessinsider.com 3) Hugh Hendry “When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself.” “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.” www.cnbc.com 4) Warren Buffet "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down." moneyweek.com 5) Ulf Lindahl will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade, and “is the beginning of a very large move.” www.reuters.com Note: Analysts from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock are also bearish on USD www.aljazeera.com markets.businessinsider.com www.reuters.com
Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
1
ridethepig | KOSPI for the Yearly Close📌 The beauty of Korea is revealing itself right on time... the breakout is difficult to maintain as can be seen on the yearly close, the slingshot which turned out to a correct play for buyers has unlocked the potential for a major rally in 2021. Capital has its eyes on Korea (and a few others) for the advantage in its currency (KRW) and economic mobility across the continent. For different reasons to India, but with well placed influence, Korea has the chance to really outperform in the next decade. EM Equities and currencies are going to provide a lot of opportunities for 2020: With that recognition behind us, I am going to be spending a lot more time in Asia for this chapter in the economic cycle. From 2020 - 2030 we are going to see a the great migration of capital from West to East. The ability for KOSPI to break 2,600 is showing how flexible the bid really is into the year close. We also have to take note of the differentiation of outside candles on the yearly: Here deploying capital to Korea for a strong move in 2021, though it involves some understanding of the relevant sectors (we will dig deeper into some single stock opportunities and sectors later in the month so start to prepare your charts). Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
KRX:KOSPILong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | KRW for the Yearly Close📌 KRW for the Yearly Close This brings into an important consideration for review the long-term KRW chart, the plan chosen by sellers has been able to lure in late unaware buyers at the highs because of the simple nature of the impulse employed. By trapping the highs and aiming for the negative break in the yearly close, it is a very bearish sign. Moves like these, do not happen often and are noteworthy. Another Yearly outside candle which as a matter of fact, should fix itself towards 900. What is important for us to track here is the 'pressure' break which is being played after the Fed capitulation. So it is worth considering adding to shorts as this looks set to continue in 2021. 📌 Nevertheless, I will continue to go through the technicals across the board, before we dig into macro details together towards the end of year for a final talk shop. Thanks for keeping all the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
USDKRW - Covid-19 Hits Korean WonAs the increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea keeps increasing (Currently 433 cases), I expect the Korean Won to drop heavily during the following days and weeks. The new cases have increased the fears about greater transmission outside China. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the possibility of closing businesses due to the virus. I am expecting the USDKRW to go to higher than 1244 and then break to around 1273 in the following days or weeks. The last time USDKRW went to 1273 was in May 2010.
by Joel_Ochoa