US Dollar: Hold Off On Selling The USD! Higher Prices Ahead?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 22 - 26th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD recovered last Friday after the FED cut the rate .25 basis points. The USD was also supported by higher T-note yields.
What's next?
Although price swept the Swing Low last week, it recovered, trading back up into the consolidation. There is a bullish tone to this movement, and a manipulative one as well. The sell side LQ was taken, followed by a quick recovery.
The highlighted bullish FVG indicates bullish order flow.
There is a potential iFVG just above the +FVG. Monitor it to see if price will respect it as support. Should it hold, look to long the USD.
Wait and react. Do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DJ FXCM Index
USDJPY Massive bullish break-out above the 1W MA50.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a 3-year Channel Up and more recently since the April 21 2025 Low, within a shorter term Channel Up (dotted trend-lines).
This pattern made a Higher Low last week and on this one it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 28. If it closes the candle above it, it will be the first time to do so since January 27 2025, thus a massive buy signal.
Based on the Bullish Legs of the dotted Channel Up (+6.00%) we expect the current rise to test the Lower Highs trend-line at 154.000.
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DXY Is it finally time for the Dollar to shine?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom during the U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has been showing incredible symmetry, having clear correction phases (red Channels) followed by bullish phases, where the price rallied to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Right now the price has almost hit the bottom of this multi-year Channel Up, while at the same time making a new (2nd) bottom for the 2nd Bearish Leg of the (red) correction phase.
With the 1M RSI having already touched its 16-year Support Zone, which has provided the most optimal Buy Signals throughout this pattern, we expect the Dollar Index to start rising aggressively in the long-term, targeting at lest 120.000 on its way to the 1.618 Fib ext.
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Overbought Market & Pullback
Dollar Index is testing a major daily resistance cluster now.
With a high probability, the market will retrace from that.
A double top pattern that was formed on an hourly time frame
indicates a clear overbought state.
The index may drop to 97.65
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USD/CAD Head and Shoulders patternA clear Head and Shoulders formation has developed. Left Shoulder (~1.3850), Head (~1.3950), and Right Shoulder (~1.3850). Price is now retesting the neckline zone around 1.3730–1.3750.
Normally this pattern formed when it's end of a trend.
So its safer to wait until the break of the support and establishing below the Resistance to enter.
USD/JPY - Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Inflation RisingFX:USDJPY #USDJPY #Forex #Trading #FXAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BankOfJapan #ForexTrader #DayTrading #SwingTrading
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged while raising its inflation forecast. This signals caution but also optimism that cooperation with the U.S. could help stabilize Japan’s economy.
On the chart, we see key demand zones (red) holding as potential support, with upside targets toward 148.700 – 149.200 (green key zones). If price sustains above the demand area, bullish momentum could push USD/JPY higher into these resistance levels.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals around support before entering long positions.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
USD/JPY - Bullish Channel, Next Targeting 148.95 (23.09.2025)#USDJPY #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
USD/JPY is trading within a Bullish Channel Pattern on the 30M chart, holding above the rising trendline support. The pair is bouncing from the support zone (147.50 – 147.70), signaling potential upside continuation.
🔹 Market Structure:
Bullish channel intact with higher highs & higher lows.
Price rejected the support zone and trendline.
Momentum suggests buyers could retest upper channel resistance.
🔹 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 147.50 – 147.70
1st Resistance: 148.58
2nd Resistance: 148.95
📈 Trading Idea:
As long as USD/JPY stays above the support zone, bulls may drive price higher toward 148.58 → 148.95.
⚠️ Invalidation:
A break below 147.50 would weaken the bullish outlook.
“Discipline + Patience = Consistency 🔑”
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve.
Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds.
3 Key Insights
Macro Calendar – Stay alert:
Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders.
Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final).
These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows.
A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher.
• EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
DXY – Post-Fed Cut: What’s Next for the Dollar?The Fed has cut rates — but the dollar didn’t flinch. No major reaction, which suggests the move was priced in.
I currently see two possible scenarios unfolding on DXY:
Scenario 1: Triangle Completed – More Downside Ahead
If we’ve finished a triangle correction, a break below 96.20 could confirm the move and open up downside toward $95–$92.
Chart:
Scenario 2: Ending Diagonal in Wave 5
Alternatively, the recent low may mark the end of a 5th wave diagonal, completing Wave 3 of the broader decline. If so, we could see choppy corrective action before any larger moves.
Chart:
Key level to watch: Break below $96.20
If price closes above $100.25 I will review the analysis as this may indicate the downward trend is complete.
USDX: demand zone holds but downside pressure remainsThe US dollar index remains under pressure, trading within a descending channel. The recent bounce from the support zone around 96.30–96.90 stalled at the EMAs and the supply zone near 98.30–98.60, where sellers reappeared. On the 4H chart, price has failed to sustain above 97.80, keeping the bearish scenario in play.
It is also important to note that the index is trading below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling that sustainable recovery is less likely without strong fundamental catalysts.
If 96.90 breaks, the next downside target is 96.30, followed by 95.40. Stronger bearish momentum could even push the index toward 94.00, signaling further dollar weakness. For now, 96.30 acts as the key support barrier.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar index remains weighed down by expectations of a dovish Fed and lower yields. Any hawkish surprise from Fed officials could lift price back toward 98.50, but the structure still favors bearish continuation.
This is exactly the kind of situation where market expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it feels like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside — we wait for clear signals, not illusions.
BTCUSD POSSIBLE BUY SETUP💡 BTCUSD 4H Outlook – Recovery Setup in Play
After a strong sell-off that created a Change of Character (ChoCH), price has now tapped into the demand zone around 112,000 – 113,000. From here, I’m watching for signs of accumulation and potential continuation back to the upside.
🔼 Bullish Scenario
If buyers hold this demand, we could see a rally toward the first supply zone near 116,000.
A clean break above that would open the way for a push toward the major resistance at 118,000 – 119,000.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold 112,000 support could trigger further downside. Next liquidity sweep would likely come below 111,500 and possibly deeper.
⚔️ Key Levels to Watch
Support: 112,000 | 111,500
Resistance: 116,000 | 118,000 – 119,000
📊 Current structure suggests bulls may try to defend this zone, giving a possible recovery leg.
✅ If this analysis helps you, hit the boost and follow for more updates on BTC and other pairs.
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Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.85
1st Support: 96.61
1st Resistance: 98.70
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Buy Signal triggered on the 4H MA100.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 2 months and today it is rising after hitting the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). This is technically the bottom of the pattern and potentially the start of its new Bullish Leg.
The typical rallies within this pattern have ranged between +1.41% and +1.51%, so expecting a minimum of +1.41% is valid. Our Target is 1.18900.
On a side-note, the 4H RSI has also rebounded on its own Support Zone, strengthening the current Buy Signal.
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Sellers in Control AfterEUR/USD hit a major resistance zone between 1.18500 – 1.19000, which aligns with the Monthly Volume Profile resistance area. Price has rejected this zone with lower highs and decreasing volume — a classic bearish signal.
This setup suggests that a Wave 4 correction may be underway, with potential to target 1.15500 and even 1.14500 if selling pressure accelerates.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move.
Here’s how I’m reading it:
Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game.
On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher.
For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points.
Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building.
If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
DXY SELL PROJECTIONDXY (Daily Outlook) – Sell Projection
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been showing signs of exhaustion after its recent upward move, and price action suggests that a potential correction could be on the horizon. I am closely watching the 98.000 supply zone, which stands out as a critical resistance level on the daily timeframe.
Should price retrace into this zone and show signs of rejection — such as bearish candlestick patterns or a shift in market structure — it would present a strong case for sellers to regain control. A sell from this region could set the stage for renewed downside momentum in the coming sessions.
For traders, this projection carries important cross-market implications: if the dollar weakens from the 98.000 level, we can expect XXX/USD pairs to gain more buying power, particularly around the midweek trading period. This would likely support bullish opportunities in major USD counterparts such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and potentially gold (XAUUSD).
In short, patience and confirmation are key — waiting for DXY to tap into the supply zone and react will provide higher probability setups across USD-related pairs.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis:
important supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EUR/USD UpdateEUR/USD Update
We use advanced data that counts the start of the cycle and all important key levels.
On the low time frame, EUR/USD is pulling back after rejecting the 1.1848 resistance zone.
Key levels:
1.1760 – 1.1762 → current support area. Holding above this keeps the short-term bullish structure intact.
1.1848 → major resistance and confirmation level for continuation of the main uptrend. A close above this would signal strength for higher targets.
If price breaks below 1.1760, downside pressure could increase, with 1.1665 as the next important support.
Cycle level: 1.1530 is the critical long-term support. EUR/USD must hold this level to remain in the green cycle.
📌 Summary
Above 1.1760 → bullish structure can continue.
Breakout above 1.1848 → confirms strong uptrend continuation.
Below 1.1760 → correction risk, targeting 1.1665 support.
1.1530 → cycle must-hold level for long-term trend.
US Dollar: Bearish! Buyside LQ Sweep Before Rate Cut?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 15 - 19th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD has a .25 basis point rate cut coming Wednesday. Will there be a manipulation of the buy side liquidity before prices turn downward? I am looking out for this fake out maneuver by MMs, being mindful the rate cut will weaken the USD against its counterparts. A short term move higher before the market turns bearish with the news announcements is more then possible.
Wait and react. Do not predict.
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EUR/USD - Rising Wedge Breakout @ H1 CMCMARKETS:EURUSD EUR/USD - Wedge Pattern Strong breakout - @ H1 with high volume. Expecting Strong Bearish outlook today and Fundamental also play major role today.
"The Fed is still signalling more rate cuts, but at the same time still sees okay growth, which is a positive combination for share markets"
The Fed reduced rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, as expected, and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year, initially sending the dollar plunging.
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EUR/USD - Fundamental Move (18.09.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern.
This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1744
2nd Support – 1.1704
Fundamental Updates :
Fed Chair Powell described this rate cut as a way to manage risks due to a weaker job market, and said there is no need to rush further rate cuts. The Fed's future plans suggest more rate cuts this year, but only one more in 2026.
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Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle.
Next week’s macro stack:
Tue – U.S. PMI flash
Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods
Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE
Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area.
Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
Global Gold at a Turning Point: Fed Policy, Yields, GeopoliticGold has once again captured global attention. Spot prices are trading around $3,690–$3,705/oz, hovering near historic highs. A weaker U.S. dollar, falling Treasury yields, and widespread expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 are the three key forces fueling this rally.
Near-Term Outlook: Scenarios Ahead
For the next 1–2 weeks, all eyes are on the Fed:
Base Case (Most Probable): A 25 bps cut with a cautious, data-dependent tone. Under this scenario, gold is likely to consolidate between $3,630 and $3,760, with buyers stepping in on dips.
Bullish Extension: If the Fed surprises with an overtly dovish message (via the dot plot or guidance) and the dollar weakens further, momentum could push gold toward $3,800.
Downside Risk: A “hawkish cut,” emphasizing persistent inflation and data dependence, could lift real yields and drag gold back to $3,590–$3,560, or even the deeper $3,520–$3,500 zone.
Medium-Term Outlook: Upward Bias
Over the 3–6 month horizon, the broader bias remains bullish. UBS projects gold at $3,900 by mid-2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,000 in the same timeframe. Unless real yields re-price higher in a sharp, unexpected fashion, the path of least resistance continues to point upward—underpinned by a weakening dollar and slowing economic growth.
Geopolitics: The Silent but Powerful Driver
Beyond Fed policy, geopolitics is exerting strong influence:
The war in Ukraine continues to threaten Europe’s energy security.
In the Middle East, tensions between Israel, Iran, and regional actors raise the risk of broader escalation.
In Asia, U.S.–China friction over Taiwan and advanced technologies is steadily intensifying.
Together, these flashpoints reinforce gold’s role as the ultimate safe-haven asset, sustaining demand even during corrective pullbacks.
Key Levels and Market Strategy
Short-term trading revolves around critical technical zones:
Resistance: $3,740–$3,760, followed by $3,800.
Support: $3,650–$3,630, then $3,590–$3,560, and deeper $3,520–$3,500.
Institutional players typically deploy two strategies:
Buy the Dip: As long as prices remain above $3,630–$3,650, dip-buying dominates.
Fade the Rally: Should the Fed strike a hawkish tone or the dollar rebound, sellers will look to fade strength near resistance.
Conclusion
Gold stands at a pivotal crossroads. The Fed’s upcoming decision will dictate short-term swings, but the broader forces of dollar weakness and geopolitical instability keep the medium-term bias tilted to the upside. For institutional investors, gold remains the “king of safe-haven assets,” a shield against both monetary and geopolitical risk.






















