NZDUSD – Outlook for the Coming Month1. Monthly View
On the monthly timeframe, NZDUSD remains firmly bearish and is still trapped inside a broad range between 0.61204 and 0.54851. If this bearish tone continues, the lower boundary at 0.54851 becomes vulnerable and could break. Until we see a decisive shift in structure, the pair continues to favor downside conditions.
2. Weekly View
The weekly chart is telling the same story — consistent downward movement with no meaningful reversal attempts. Price has not broken a single lower high for weeks, showing that sellers remain in full control. As long as those lower highs stay intact, the weekly structure will keep pulling the market lower.
3. Daily View
The daily timeframe is where things get interesting. Every time price has dropped, NZDUSD has attempted a pullback, but these pullbacks have become smaller and weaker over time — a sign of decreasing bullish strength.
A swing low has formed on the daily chart. If the market intends to move higher, it should not close below this daily swing low, although it can still dip below it slightly to sweep liquidity before reversing. This level will play a crucial role in confirming whether buyers are stepping in or not.
4. 4-Hour View
On the 4H timeframe, I already caught a short-side setup earlier when the bearish structure was clean. But from the current position, I can also see early signs of a potential reversal — though it’s not confirmed yet.
If NZDUSD fails to break the previous lower highs, the reversal idea becomes weak. However, some lower highs are starting to break, and at the same time, we’ve also seen higher lows getting violated. Despite that, there’s still no candle body closing below the daily swing low, which keeps the possibility of a bullish attempt alive.
Another scenario is possible:
If NZDUSD neither breaks the major lower highs nor breaks the newly forming higher lows, the pair could slip into a sideways consolidation. But whichever direction it chooses to break out from that consolidation, the resulting move is likely to be strong.
Final Thoughts
NZDUSD is sitting at an important point in structure. While the higher timeframes remain bearish, the lower timeframes are hinting at the possibility of a shift — but only if key levels break with conviction. The daily swing low is the line in the sand; as long as price protects it, a more substantial pullback or even a trend reversal could unfold.
I’ll be watching how price behaves near these critical zones. A clean break of lower highs would support the bullish case, while a daily close below the swing low would put sellers back in full control.
Note: This is purely my personal analysis. Before investing or trading, always form your own view and manage your risk responsibly. I’m not responsible for any profit or loss — I’m simply sharing what I’m observing in the market.
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