Will #USOIL (WTI Crude) Falling Channel Rise? –Weekly Timeframe Will #USOIL USOIL (WTI Crude) Falling Channel Rise? – Weekly Timeframe Technical Analysis
Current Price: 61.1
Market Structure
WTI remains in a long-term corrective phase following the 2022 peak - Over 50% Retracement. Price action is clearly contained within a well-defined descending channel (red), characterised by lower highs and lower lows. This confirms that, structurally, the market is still bearish on a primary timeframe. However, price is now trading very close to the lower boundary of the channel with a double bottom, where downside momentum historically weakens.
Key Support & Demand Zone
Major support is between 56.00 – 61.00
This zone has acted as a multi-year demand area, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure.
The most recent weekly candles show **rejection wicks and reduced downside follow-through**, suggesting seller exhaustion rather than aggressive distribution.
A sustained weekly close **below 56** would invalidate this current recovery and expose the low-40s.
Resistance & Upside Levels
If price holds above support and breaks channel resistance, the following upside levels come into focus:
73.96 Prior structural resistance and midpoint reaction zone
91.95 Major range resistance from previous distribution
111.65: Upper macro resistance
127.95: Long-term target aligned with prior highs. These levels align well with historical supply zones and would likely trigger profit-taking on any rally.
Momentum, Bias and Invalidation
Momentum remains neutral-to-bearish but losing downside strength
A weekly close above the descending channel would signal a structural shift from bearish continuation to bullish recovery. Until that breakout occurs, rallies should still be treated as corrective within a broader downtrend.
Invalidation and Bearish Continuation lives below 56 (A weekly close below)
Conclusion
WTI is at a critical inflection point. While the dominant trend remains bearish, price location favours a potential upside reaction due to strong historical demand and channel compression. Confirmation, not anticipation, is key.
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