Oil Trade Analysis📊 NFX GBEBROKERS:USOIL Oil Trade Analysis
FX:USOIL is currently trading at a critical resistance zone around $64.200. With no strong fundamentals to back the current bullish momentum, this move looks short-lived given the broader macroeconomic outlook (as discussed in our last WMA session).
🔀 Two key paths ahead:
Path A – Bearish Rejection🔻(Most Probable)
Price faces rejection at current SR zone.
Confluence with the 200-day SMA, which has acted as strong resistance for some time.
Likely scenario: sharp retracement downwards.
Path B – Liquidity Grab 🔸
Price breaks above the 200-day SMA and SR zone.
Pushes higher towards the next resistance at 65 (38.2% Fib level).
Expected to be a fakeout/liquidity grab before a heavy bearish drop.
📅 Market Movers to Watch Tomorrow:
FOMC Statement
USOil Inventory Report
Fed Rate Cut Decision
⚖️ Personally, I lean strongly towards Path A (bearish rejection🔻), but I’ll be waiting for confirmation before entering. News tomorrow will be the key catalyst.
💬 What’s your outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Usoilanalysis
Crude Oil Monthly Forecast: September 2025
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been rather negative during the month of August, but at the end of the month we saw the market bounce roughly 50% of the move, and as I do this analysis at the end of the month, we are sitting at a crucial level.
This does make a certain amount of sense, because there are a lot of questions right now about where the global economy is going.
Crude Oil and the Economy
Keep in mind that crude oil is extraordinarily important for most economies, and of course the transportation of goods and services. In other words, crude oil will rally in times of economic growth but also will struggle in times where growth is extraordinarily limited. That’s the question we find ourselves trying to answer at the moment, and this may be part of the reason why we are hanging around and trying to sort out where we are going next.
Another major problem at the moment is the fact that Russia, OPEC, in the United States are all ramping up production, which of course will drive down price as supply is getting to be too much. Between that and the possibility of the global economy slowing down, this could be a very bad sign for crude oil. This isn’t to say that we need to fall apart, just that it might be extraordinarily difficult for oil to get a bit of a bid at the moment.
Ultimately, I think the $65 level continues to be an area of interest, as the price has acted like a magnet more than once. If we can rally from here, somewhere around the $60 level I would expect to see a lot of resistance. On the other hand, if we drop from here, I think somewhere around the $60 level there should be significant support. Anything below would be an extraordinarily negative sign. I believe we are trying to find some type of range, perhaps between the $62 level and the $67 level, but we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Either way, I would anticipate choppy and basically sideways action for the month.
USOIL H4 | Bearish reversal off major resistanceUSOIL is rising towards the sell entry, whichis an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 65.00, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss is at 66.62, which acts as a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 61.72, which is a multi swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Oil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concernsOil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concerns
Oil prices dipped late Thursday as U.S. crude stocks rose 3.9M barrels, defying forecasts for a decline, while the IEA lifted supply estimates, signaling a larger surplus ahead. Losses were capped by rising geopolitical risks, with the U.S. and EU weighing tougher sanctions on Russia after fresh Ukraine-related tensions. Traders now balance bearish fundamentals with potential supply disruptions.
USOIL Trade Insights📢 NFX Trade Update – FX:USOIL USOIL (WTI-USD)
Strong rejection at the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance, with price dropping exactly as expected, confirming the liquidity grab setup. A textbook SMC play.
We anticipate further downside on Oil. Our trade is active, and for those who entered around $64.10 (per the last video analysis), you’re already sitting on +350 pips in profit.
Looking ahead, I expect price to drop below the EIA entry level and potentially test the $62/barrel zone before Friday’s market close.
USOIL latest trend analysis and operation layout#USOIL
Crude oil continued to rebound in the European session, but the short-term 4H moving average was still pressing downward, and it was obvious that the short-selling momentum had not completely subsided. The overall trading rhythm is mainly based on rebound shorting. The short-term upper resistance level is 63.5-64.5. If it fails to break through effectively, crude oil will usher in a retracement, with the target looking at 62.5-61.5
🚀 SELL 63.5-64.5
🚀 TP 62.5-61.5
USOIL H4 | Bullish reversal setup formingUSOIL is reacting off the buy entry which is a swing low support and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 61.66, which is a swing low support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss is at 60.88, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonaci extension.
Take profit is at 63.43, whichis a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL H4 | Potential bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has reacted off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 63.41, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 64.78, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 61.60, which is a swing low support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOil Bear Trap Set: Ready For The Downside Raid?🛢️ WTI Oil Bearish Heist Plan 💣 | Thief Trader Layers Activated 🔐
💥 Welcome to the vault raid, Thief OG’s! 💥
We’re targeting US Oil Spot / WTI (XTIUSD) — and this time, the plan is pure Bearish robbery.
🚨 The Robbery Setup:
This isn’t just a sell — it’s a layered ambush. We place traps, let bulls walk in, and then we rob clean.
📌 Thief Entry Plan (Limit Layers):
Sell Limit @63.000
Sell Limit @63.500
Sell Limit @64.000
Sell Limit @64.500
👉 You can stack more layers if the vault door keeps opening.
🛑 Thief Stop Loss:
SL locked @65.500 🔒
⚠️ Adjust your SL like a true Thief — according to your risk + number of layers.
🎯 Escape Plan (Target):
🚔 Police barricade spotted around 59.000.
📌 Official Heist Exit: 60.000 — grab the loot before the cops arrive.
🧠 Thief Strategy Logic:
Multi-layer sell ambush 🏴☠️
Bearish pressure from supply + demand shifts 📊
Technical rejection zones aligning with macro weakness 📉
⚠️ Risk Management Note:
Thieves don’t rush!
👉 Place alerts before the raid.
👉 Don’t dump blind orders — wait for price to approach layers.
👉 Manage your position like a stealth operation, not a casino gamble.
💬 Thief Community Code:
Smash ❤️ & Boost if you’re with the robbery crew.
Drop your charts + sniper entries below.
We rob together. We win together. 🏆
🔔 Stay locked in — more heist plans dropping soon.
💰 Rob Smart. Trade Sharp. Exit Clean.
USOIL (WTI Crude) – Buy & Sell Trade Scenarios🔵 Bullish Scenario (Buy Call)
Entry Zone: Break and sustained close above 65.20 – 65.50 (current 4H resistance).
Reasoning:
Price has retested the 64.90 resistance cluster multiple times, suggesting absorption of supply.
Volume shows declining sell pressure near resistance – a sign of potential breakout.
A breakout with strong volume confirms buyers stepping in.
Target 1: 66.75 (measured move into next liquidity pool).
Target 2 (extended): 68.20 – 68.50 (previous structural pivot).
Stop Loss: Below 64.20 (false breakout protection).
R:R Potential: ~1:2.5 to 1:3
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Sell Call)
Entry Zone: Rejection at 65.00 – 65.50 resistance with bearish confirmation candle.
Reasoning:
This zone has acted as a strong supply area since mid-August.
Multiple wicks rejecting the level + increasing sell volume hint at distribution.
If price fails to close above resistance, sellers regain control.
Target 1: 63.00 – 63.20 (mid-support range).
Target 2 (extended): 62.00 – 61.90 (major support zone).
Stop Loss: Above 65.70 (wick protection).
R:R Potential: ~1:2 to 1:3
⚖️ Key Technical Takeaway
64.90 – 65.50 = Pivot zone (battle between bulls and bears).
Breakout + volume = bullish continuation to 66.75+.
Rejection + heavy volume = bearish rotation back to 62.95.
Oil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut FearsOil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut Fears
Russian supply risks are clashing with growing concerns of a global supply glut as summer winds down. Crude benchmarks gained over 1% in the previous session after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories, though the pace of declines slowed from the prior week.
Analysts warn that OPEC+ unwinding production cuts, combined with rising output from non-member producers, could tip the market into surplus, according to MUFG’s Soojin Kim.
While Brent continues to trade at a near-term premium, signaling tight supplies, that premium has narrowed — a sign of softening demand expectations ahead.
USOIL H4 | Bearish reversal offUSOIL has reacted off the sell entry, which acts as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 63.96, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 65.00, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 61.80, which is a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL Bearish Reversal & Selling OpportunityUSOIL (WTI Crude Oil) – Bearish Setup Analysis
The chart shows a clear bearish structure with multiple confirmations:
Trendline Rejection & Break: Price rejected from the upper rejection line and later broke the rising trendline, confirming bearish momentum.
FVG (Fair Value Gap) Selling Zone: Price retested the imbalance zone (63.53–63.94), creating a strong selling opportunity.
EMA Confluence: Both the 70 EMA and 200 EMA are above the price, acting as dynamic resistance, supporting bearish bias.
Market Structure Shift (MSS): Breakdown of higher lows signals shift to bearish structure.
Target: Downside continuation expected towards 61.65, the next liquidity and support zone.
Stop Loss: Above 63.94 (selling zone invalidation).
📉 Strategy: Look for sell entries around 63.53–63.94 zone, with target at 61.65 and stop loss above 63.94.
USOIL rebounds from 6,300.0. Where next?USOIL rebounds from 6,300.0. Where next?
USOIL bounced back from the 6,300.0 mark on Tuesday, building on slight gains from the prior session, after President Donald Trump prolonged a tariff truce with China for an additional 90 days. The decision, made just before new tariffs were due, provided temporary relief from rising trade tensions that might hinder global growth and energy demand. The modest rise towards SMA50 and 6,500.0 level is expected. Market participants will also be waiting for OPEC’s monthly report, along with US EIA and IEA forecasts, for fresh supply–demand signals.
USOIL H4 | Potential bearish dropUSOIL has reacted off the sell entry which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 64.13, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 67.06, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 60.05, which is a multi swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Oil continues to decline due to geopolitics optimismOil continues to decline due to geopolitics optimism
A Kremlin official announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will hold a summit soon, their first since 2021, with a White House source suggesting it could occur as early as next week. Optimism surrounding potential U.S.-Russia discussions on the Ukraine conflict has alleviated concerns about oil supply disruptions, despite U.S. sanctions targeting India for its continued Russian crude imports. Trump introduced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and signaled possible additional tariffs on China. However, increased OPEC production and ongoing trade tensions remain key concerns, raising fears of slower economic growth and reduced demand.
Technically, USOIL trades just above the 6,300.00 support level. Insignificant rebound from this level is expected with possible decline towards crucial 6,000.00 support level.
USOIL declines on possibility of geopolitical stabilityUSOIL declines on possibility of geopolitical stability
Crude oil and gasoline prices fell August 6 after an early rally, as Trump announced "great progress" in U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war, reducing fears of new sanctions on Russian energy exports. Additionally, OPEC+’s planned 547,000 bpd production increase for September further pressured prices amid concerns of a global oil supply glut.
Technically, USOIL broke crucial local support at 6,500.00. Currently, the price is retesting this level. The decline towards 6,300.00 is expected in short-term.
USOIL Bulls Seize a New OpportunityThe EIA crude oil inventory data is scheduled for release today and is expected to have a significant impact on USOIL prices. Based on the previously released API report, there’s a high probability that the EIA data will also be bullish.
From a technical perspective, USOIL is currently showing signs of a potential rebound. Therefore, for traders participating in USOIL today, it may be more favorable to adopt a bullish bias. If managed well around key support levels and timing, the setup could offer attractive profit opportunities.
USOIL drops on rising supply and demand concernsUSOIL drops on rising supply and demand concerns
Oil prices fell Tuesday as OPEC+ planned a 547,000 bpd output increase for September, overshadowing potential Russian oil supply constraints from U.S. policies. Brent and WTI crude dropped to their lowest in a week, marking a fourth consecutive decline. OPEC+’s reversal of 2.5 million bpd cuts, combined with weak demand outlooks due to U.S. recession risks and China’s lack of new stimulus, pressured prices. Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Russian crude buyers like India, which imports 1.75 million bpd, heightened trade tensions but failed to lift oil prices. Analysts warn U.S. tariffs could further weaken global growth and fuel demand.
USOIL shows some in-moment strength on RSI on 1-h chart, the price may rebound towards sma200 at 6,700.00. However, in long-term perspective, low oil price is expected. Eventually, the price may decline towards level of 6,000.00.






















