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Vance

Trump leaving office - Political risk rises after Epstein emailsJeffrey Epstein allegedly claimed that Donald Trump spent hours in a house with one of the late trafficker’s victims and suggested the U.S. President was aware of his activities, according to an email released by congressional Democrats. Will this latest scandal be enough to take Trump out of office? Probably not, but there is a non-zero chance still right. For now, the potential end of the government shutdown appears to be overshadowing any market reaction. Still, traders shouldn’t overlook what a change in leadership could mean. Last week, we explored how a J.D. Vance presidency might reshape U.S. markets by challenging corporate monopolies and potentially strengthening the dollar. The same logic applies here: if Trump were to lose the presidency, markets could quickly begin pricing in the next administration’s economic outlook.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull Markets
J.D. Vance and the market consequences of successionJ.D. Vance’s sudden rise to the Presidency could mark a dramatic shift for financial markets if he breaks from his current boss’s stance on how to govern an economy. Before being picked as Trump’s VP, Vance was known for his opposition to corporate monopolies. In the past, he criticised the power of firms like Google, Apple, and Amazon, calling for antitrust enforcement. A sudden shift to a Vance-led administration could crash markets that have priced in continued support for the “Magnificent Seven,” who have driven much of the S&P 500’s recent performance. Ultimately, In the long run, however, breaking up dominant players can spark greater innovation (and potential stock gains), as the incumbents lose their ability to acquire and bury emerging competition. Meanwhile, one of the defining trends of Trump’s second term has been the significant decline of the U.S. dollar. A change in leadership, especially one less inclined toward isolationist policies and piling on national debt, could potentially strengthen the dollar in the short term. Gold might also take a hit and find a medium-term price level below $4000.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
Walz vs. Vance: Markets to Watch Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are set to clash next week in the sole U.S. vice presidential debate, an opportunity for both candidates to bolster their running mates’ platforms ahead of the crucial November 5 election. For the exact date and time of major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Will the markets mirror the first debate’s outcome? Vance faces an uphill battle, with polling data showing he carries higher unfavorable ratings compared to Walz. So, unless Vance exceeds expectations during the debate, the "winner" will likely be the more favored candidate going in. During the first debate between Trump and Harris, assets linked to the Harris/Walz ticket surged post-debate. Green economy stocks rose 4.1%, renewables climbed 4.0%, and oil gained 2.1%, driven by lower supply expectations. Semiconductors saw a 4.4% uptick. Meanwhile, Trump-trade assets stumbled, with Trump Media & Technology Group plunging 13%, and crypto-related stocks, including Bitcoin, pulling back.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull Markets