Valneva: Between Correction and Long-Term PotentialXETR:AYJ Hey guys,
I started analyzing Valneva around mid-October 2025 after the company was brought to my attention by a friend. I find it to be a very interesting company and chart. There aren't many ideas or analysis to find on TradingView so I figured I try to make my own. I focused on understanding the price structure and the broader technical context.
From a technical perspective, the stock had already put in a significant bottom below 2 EUR, around 1.75 EUR, in December 2024. From that low, price advanced strongly up to roughly 4.20 EUR.
My analysis is purely chart-based and primarily relies on Fibonacci structures. On the initial 0–A move from approximately 1.75 EUR to 4.20 EUR, I applied a Fibonacci retracement. Price corrected into the projected retracement zone (light blue), overshot at around 10% max. into a lower area. Importantly, price eventually broke above point A, confirming a valid B–C continuation and the start of a sequence.
Following that, I analyzed a larger 0–A structure (green), whose Fibonacci retracement levels are located a bit higher. This broader corrective zone starts roughly around 3.50 EUR (0.5 Fib) and extends to just below 3.00 EUR (0.667 Fib), overlapping with the upper area of the previous correction zone (0.5 Fib light blue). After the price had already tested the 0.5 retracement once in early September and rallied from there, I waited for a second approach. I placed a first limit order in mid November, which was filled in exactly one month later as price moved back into the green corrective zone.
However, I do not assume that the correction is necessarily complete. From my point of view, further downside remains possible. Price could revisit the light-blue corrective area, meaning a deeper overshoot below the green retracement zone. A move not only below 3.00 EUR, but potentially toward 2.80 EUR or even 2.70 EUR cannot be ruled out. I am prepared for such a scenario and would view it as an opportunity rather than a problem.
On the upside, my moderate targets start at around 6.20 EUR and higher, based on the projected extension levels shown in light blue. In a more extended scenario, the broader sequence in green theoretically allows for moves toward the 9–10 EUR area if the higher-level structure plays out.
From a fundamental and news-driven perspective I guess, 2025 has been mixed so far. The company reported negative developments related to the Chikungunya vaccine, which has effectively been put on hold in the U.S.. Additionally, forecasts were revised downward, which clearly impacted price action and led to a second test of the green corrective zone. After the first test in early September, price has now entered this area again in recent days.
Looking ahead, I would not be surprised to see further weakness around or ahead of the Q4 2025 results, as guidance has already been adjusted lower. This could add additional downside pressure independent of the broader technical structure. However since the beginning of 2025 the price is still up more than 75%.
That said, the key long-term catalyst remains the Phase 3 data for VLA15, the Lyme disease vaccine candidate. Phase 1 and Phase 2 results have been very encouraging. If Phase 3 data also turns out positive, this could represent a major inflection point for the company. In that case, current price levels would likely become irrelevant in hindsight.
Price levels seen during the COVID period above 20 EUR are, at this stage, speculative and should be viewed as long-term upside, or to the moon if you will, scenarios rather than basic cases. For now, my focus remains on the current structure: managing entries within the corrective zones, expecting deeper Fibonacci retracement levels such as 0.559, 0.618, 0.667 or lower if reached, and reassessing once meaningful clinical data is released.
I am positioned, prepared for volatility, and willing to add on further weakness. If the upcoming data is positive, I expect a structural trend shift with significantly higher price levels over time. Let's see what happens.
I'd very much like to here your opinions and potential suggestions for improvements :)
