On the lighter side of thingsThe questions in recent times...
- Is the federal reserve going to slow down on future rate increases?
- Could we see a cut in rates in 2023?
- With terminal rates still undecided, could it be revised higher?
Perhaps the height of the Central Banker of the US Federal Reserve could be a leading indicator of interest rate decisions! (I'm not being serious, but it was interesting to see the correlations)
I started trading FX when Chair Bernanke (5ft 8in) was in the prime position and oversaw a steady decline in interest rates (ignoring the fact that the Global Financial Crisis caused significant turmoil in the markets)
The current Chair, Jerome Powell stands at 5ft 10in, an increase from Chair Yellen at 5ft 3in. A change in the Central Banker height trend has led to US interest rates climbing higher from 0% to the current of 4.75%!!
Chair Greenspan (5ft 8in), was THE first central banker I've read about and probably what got me interested in the financial markets, ushered in a strong US economy in the 90s. Greenspan oversaw rate hikes as he too battled with "high" inflation in 1997.
So, perhaps instead of overthinking about employment, CPI, GDP, QE, and YCC, all we have to do is pay attention to the change in the height of the Federal Reserve Chairperson.
What do you think?
