The "Line in the Sand" (Why Bitcoin is Stuck)
Everyone is asking why Bitcoin feels "heavy" while the Euro rips and Stocks hold up. The answer isn't in the news; it is in the Anchored VWAP (The Purple Line).
The Educational Lesson: "Regime Theory" The Anchored VWAP represents the average price paid by institutions since the trend began. It acts as a binary filter:
Above the Line: The average participant is in profit. Sentiment is Bullish. Buy support.
Below the Line: The average participant is underwater. Sentiment is Bearish. Short resistance.
Applying this to BTC (Right Now): Look at the chart. We are currently trading at $87,890, which is firmly BELOW the Purple Institutional Mean (currently sitting near $91,000).
The Behavior: Notice how every time price rallies back up toward that purple line, it gets swatted down? That is not an accident. That is "breakeven selling." Traders who are underwater are using the rally to get out for a small loss, creating a wall of supply.
The Trap: Retail traders see support at $87k and buy. But because we are below the VWAP, the "Gravity" is pulling us down, not up.
The "Hidden" Signal (What else I see): Visually, the AVWAP gives us the bearish location. But I am looking at another data point on my internal dashboard—specifically regarding Absorption—that tells me this consolidation isn't just "resting." It looks like active distribution (trapping buyers) before another leg down.
The Verdict: Until Bitcoin reclaims that Purple Line ($91k+), every rally is a "Short the Bounce" opportunity. Do not try to be a hero and catch the bottom while the institutional tide is going out.
