GLOBAL RECESSIONWe are reaching extremely high Futures prices in the commodities sector. It's a bit worrying especially since these prices are approaching 2008 levels, some are higher.
We might see a global recession, and it can be triggered by a black swan event (The Russian war could have already started this catalyst) and a global Inflation that doesn't seem to slow down.
So what to do? try to time a crash? Play shorts/put options?
Personally, I think it's better to hold cash and buy up stocks/etfs that become dirt cheap.
You have higher chances of making serious gains buying the BIG DIP than trying to pull a BIG SHORT
Here is Wheat Future's monthly chart.
You can see that Wheat is reaching 2008 peak recession prices.
Wheat also gained almost 60% in the last month alone. This means that the price of food HAS to go up = More Inflation.
Oil is doing the same thing.
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Copper hit all-time high
Wheatfutures
WHEATUsing just the Price/Trend indicator on its own, we would have made +40% - we had 2 opportunities to BUY on 4H - however we slept on this as we were too busy trading Crypto to remember that Ukraine is one of the biggest Wheat producers!
Interesting to see where it will fall - Sell the News ...
WHEAT LONG-TERM LONGS 📉📉📉📈 I just wanted to share with you the reason behind the big bullish move on WHEAT, Ukraine is the country that exports the most wheat in the Europe so the price will rise because of the supply damage. Also as we are in a RISK OFF market sentiment investors tend to buy this asset as they are thinking about PROTECTION both on money and themselves. I think we will see wheat way above 1200-1300$ if the military conflict it will continue. From a technical perspective we are in a clear bullish market structure as price keeps printing higher highs and higher lows
What do you think ?
Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs
We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind.
Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!
WHEAT, closed in Stop ProfitAfter 3 months we close our positions on wheat.
The price pulled back 25 points, leading our positions to hit the Stop Profit we had set at 769.80 to save profits, and it did.
Very good are those who have deducted part of the contracts on 50%, others on 38.2% letting the remaining part of the contracts run, very well indeed.
Now let's let the WHEAT go where it wants to go, we are far from any signal of the MCS, in February we will be in A1 of the annual and we will then evaluate any possible trade.
WEAT UpdateSlowly crushing all levels put out previously
There is absolutely nothing going against this trade:
1. Inflation is positive for the price
2. Logistics and all of the shipping BS is positive
3. Winter is coming...can harvest more supply until next year
4. What am I missing?
5. You know what happens after you put a claw like looking rounding bottom like this?
It is just getting started. Plenty of notice given.
Is Wheat Ready to Rock?OANDA:WHEATUSD recently hit a high around the $7.16USD area and has been in a small downtrend since. It looks like it may be ready to head back upwards and test resistance again after a nice bounce off of support.
Entering around the $7 mark would give us about a 2.37% retrace up to resistance and would be a perfect bounce off of the 0.5 fib.
RSI on the 30 minute and 4 hour charts both look like they are in a position to support this move. Stoch RSI also appears to be in a spot to “roll over” on both time frames mentioned.
* This Content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice.
Wheat Futures (DEC 2021)3 wave pattern
Two patterns completed, 3 joining wave patterns completed. Making the next wave either a 3 wave or a 5 wave.
It traded to a retracement zone of 0.5% which is the point of entry in a corrective pattern for some of us
Currently, futures short covering is an extra condition to go long,
LONG
Wheat aiming at ATH this summer> Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the most important crop in the world in terms of area harvested, and is one of the world’s staple foods. It provides about 20 % of the total dietary calories and proteins worldwide.
> However, wheat has a defect, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature, on average, reduces the global yields of wheat by 6.0%. Other important cereals are also affected; rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%.
medcraveonline.com
medcraveonline.com
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Now, without science, it is clear that Wheat futures are in middle of a brakeout.
It seems speculators and market makers are already all over it for fundamental and technical reasons. I expect old high to be tested by end of the summer (late September).
Wheat bearish trendIf gives breakdown below the Rising Wedge short for given targets.
Also targets can act as support and reversal zone. Follow red/ green arrows according to price action.
Wheat Futures September 2021 ContractThe pattern is currently doing a sideways or consolidation in 1 HR and below. It looks like the selling pressure is present unless if its breaks the red line resistance with a strong buying force. Other confluence for shorts are:
1) Pattern making a reversal at a 61.8 Fibo level
2) Seller coming in, can be seen in Volume
3) Bullish momentum getting less and less
4) Price break 100MA, but yet to respect it.
Entry guidelines:
- I will wait for the price to break the trendline and the support area before going into a position targetting 160-170 ticks below.
Good luck!
WHEAT - SHORT; Continued SELLing for the foreseeable future"Margin pressures; How to survive in an over-provisioned environment." - Was the topic/title of a recent grain cash traders' conference. What does that tell you?...
In short, industry insiders do not expect to see daylight (i.e. profits) as far out as 2025! - And that concludes the essence of all that was said during that get-together.
(Try that on for "inflationary pressures" .)
December Wheat Double Top - Could we be headed back around $6.70
Wheat markets appear to be in the middle of a confirmed double top . IF resistance in the area of $7.17/bu holds, we should be headed back to the $6.70/bu area.
From a technical perspective, the chart shows a classic double top set up with the lower point being violated, a short pullback higher, followed by a further decline. This should set the target in the $6.70 area.
Fundamentally, wheat markets appear overvalued as well. They have been dragged around by corn recently due to the substitution by feed aspect. Recently corn markets have also come under pressure as the market anticipates a large increase in plantings next year, both domestic and globally.
SHORT XWM21 (Wheat Futures May21)We have been on a bull run in the wheat market since June of last year. However the past couple months we hit a high followed by consolidation between 635-685. We formed a double top and price is looking pretty heavy. We broke out of a multi-month support level and price came back to test this area and looks like it is now a new resistance. Looking to take partial profits at 580, 540 and perhaps even a move to take out the lows made at June 2020.






















