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It is a time for LAZR - 50% potential profit - 3.20 USDOn the hourly chart of Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ: LAZR), there are signs of a potential trend reversal following a prolonged downtrend. After reaching a local bottom around $1.80, the price has formed a series of higher lows, which may indicate the beginning of a new upward trend. The moving averages (with the short-term EMA crossing above the long-term one) suggest a possible change in direction, while the RSI has bounced from oversold levels and is now moving upward, supporting a bullish scenario. If the price holds above the $2.00–$2.10 support zone, further appreciation can be expected toward the next resistance levels at $2.60 and then $3.20, where a significant supply zone from previous highs is located. In summary, the current price action and technical indicators suggest a potential medium-term rise toward $3.20, provided that the price maintains its support area. Potential TP: 3.20 USD
NASDAQ:LAZRLong
by darksignal
Rivian at a Crossroads: Technical Compression Signals a PotentiaYou’ve clearly identified a descending channel (orange lines) that has contained the stock’s downtrend since its IPO highs. Over time, Rivian’s price compressed into a symmetrical triangle or horizontal range between roughly $10–$16, signaling a classic “consolidation before decision” phase. • Support: Around $10–11, repeatedly tested and held — forming a potential accumulation base. • Resistance: Around $16, rejecting multiple breakout attempts. • Trendlines: The upper descending trendline (orange) has been tested enough times to lose some strength — a breakout above $16–17 would likely trigger a technical rally. If it breaks above $16 with volume, you might see a measured move target around $22–24, aligning with prior resistance levels. If it breaks below $11.6, it could revisit $6–7, completing the larger descending channel pattern. Institutional sentiment tends to cycle around major news catalysts (earnings, delivery updates, or cost-cutting milestones). The long sideways movement may suggest institutional accumulation, waiting for a macro tailwind (e.g., lower rates or positive EV policy incentives).
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by osamaadi
SPX500 | HULL MA & Fibo Confluence Setting Up the Move!🎯 SPX500: The "Polite Thief" Strategy - Stealing Profits Like a Gentleman 🎩💰 📊 Market Overview Asset: SPX500 (S&P 500 Index CFD) Trade Type: Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Bias: Bullish 🐂 Strategy Style: Multi-Layer Entry (The "Thief Method") 🔍 Technical Setup The Plan: We're eyeing a bullish confirmation with a clean retest/pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, aligned beautifully with our HULL Moving Average. This confluence zone is screaming "buy the dip" louder than your portfolio manager at a market crash! 📈 🎯 Entry Strategy Options: Option 1: The "Polite Thief" Multi-Layer Approach Instead of going all-in like it's a Vegas buffet, we're using calculated limit orders: 📍 Layer 1: 6620 📍 Layer 2: 6640 📍 Layer 3: 6660 📍 Layer 4: 6680 Feel free to add more layers based on your account size and risk appetite! Option 2: Market Execution Jump in at any current price level if the setup confirms during live hours. 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss: 6580 ⚠️ Disclaimer: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this is MY stop loss based on MY analysis. You're the captain of your own ship! 🚢 Set your risk parameters according to YOUR comfort level and account size. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. 💎 Profit Target Target Zone: 6860 This level represents our "Electric Shock Wall" 🔌⚡ - a confluence of: Strong historical resistance Overbought territory potential Bull trap zone (where late entries get caught) Exit Strategy Note: I'm not your financial advisor! 💼 When you see green, secure those gains at YOUR discretion. The market doesn't care about our targets - take profit when YOU feel comfortable! 🌐 Related Pairs to Watch Keep your eyes on these correlated instruments: 📈 AMEX:SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - Moves in lockstep with SPX500; watch for volume confirmation 📈 NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) - Tech-heavy index; bullish momentum here supports SPX strength 📈 AMEX:DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Broader market sentiment indicator 📈 TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) - Inverse correlation; falling VIX = bullish for equities 💵 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) - Typically inverse to equities; weakening dollar supports stocks Key Correlation: When tech leads (QQQ pumping), SPX usually follows. Watch for VIX to stay subdued below 15 for sustained bullish momentum. 📝 Key Technical Points ✅ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement acting as dynamic support ✅ HULL Moving Average confluence strengthens the setup ✅ Multi-layer entry reduces average cost and timing risk ✅ Clear risk/reward structure with defined zones ✅ Resistance zone identified for disciplined exits ⚡ The "Thief Strategy" Philosophy We're not robbing the market - we're borrowing profits with permission! 😉 The layered entry approach allows us to build positions like a professional, not gamble like a reckless amateur. Scale in, scale out, and live to trade another day! ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! ⚠️ Final Disclaimer IMPORTANT: This "Thief Style" trading strategy is for educational and entertainment purposes only! 🎪 This is NOT financial advice. I'm sharing my personal analysis and trade ideas - what you do with your money is 100% YOUR decision. Trade at your own risk, manage your own capital, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research! 🔍 #SPX500 #SP500 #TradingIdeas #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciRetracement #SupportAndResistance #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #IndexTrading #ThiefStrategy #LayeredEntry #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis #TradingCommunity #ChartAnalysis
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by The-Thief
4008 | TADAWUL - Dual Target Setup with 39.87% Upside PotentialSaudi Co. for Hadrware We're presenting a high-probability swing opportunity on 4008 with a structured dual-target approach, offering up to 39.87% upside over the next 193 bars (approximately 6-7 months). 🔑 Key Highlights: • Market Structure: 2nd CHoCH (Change of Character) at a higher level - bullish continuation signal • Entry Zone: SAR 31.50 - 31.84 (current support zone) • Target (1): SAR 38.20 (~19.99% upside in 72 bars/~2.5 months) • Target (2): SAR 44.08 (~39.87% upside in 193 bars/~6-7 months) • Stop Loss: Below the recent support structure • Timeframe: Daily chart 📌 Technical Structure: The chart displays a powerful bullish pattern with multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure) confirmations throughout the trend development. Most significantly: • 1st CHoCH: Initial momentum shift establishing the foundation for the uptrend • 2nd CHoCH at Higher Level: This is the key confirmation - price has broken structure at a higher level, indicating stronger buyer commitment and continuation potential Price is currently consolidating in the 31.50 SAR support zone (marked in blue), providing an optimal entry point with clearly defined risk. This consolidation after the second CHoCH often precedes the next impulsive move higher. 📊 Dual Target Strategy: • Target 1 (38.20 SAR): Short-term objective at ~20% gain, aligning with our 2-3 month profit-taking rules • Target 2 (44.08 SAR): Extended objective at ~40% gain, perfect for our 6-month horizon strategy This setup allows for flexible position management - partial profit-taking at Target 1 while holding remaining position for Target 2. 📈 Our Tadawul Objectives: This trade aligns with our broader portfolio strategy of achieving 35-40% annual growth through: • Monthly: Close if the position gains 10-15% • Within 2-3 months: Close if it gains 15-20% • Within 6 months: Close if it gains 20-30% With this setup offering 19.99% to Target 1 and 39.87% to Target 2, we have excellent flexibility to execute our systematic profit-taking approach. This structured approach ensures consistent profit-taking while managing risk. The real purpose of closing a position is to book profits and free up capital so it can be invested in better opportunities. For regular trading insights on Tadawul, make sure to follow us and stay ahead in the market.
TADAWUL:4008Long
by ama-Beeps
USDJPY Bullish energy build up support at 150.70The USDJPY remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader sideways trend. Support Zone: 150.70 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 150.70 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 152.60 – initial resistance 153.30 – psychological and structural level 153.80 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 150.70 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 150.35 – minor support 149.95 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the USDJPY holds above 150.70. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The USDCHF remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action The USDCHF remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader sideways trend. Support Zone: 0.7990 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 0.7990 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 0.8075 – initial resistance 0.8090 – psychological and structural level 0.8100 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 0.7990 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 0.7970 – minor support 0.7950 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the USDCHF holds above 0.7990. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDCAD uptrend continuation supported at 1.4013The USDCAD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential breakout rally within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.4013 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.4013 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.4093 – initial resistance 1.4122 – psychological and structural level 1.4150 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.4013 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.3990 – minor support 1.3970 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the USDCAD holds above 1.4013. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
GBP/USD What’s changed in the last 24–48h What’s changed in the last 24–48h IMF & BoE warnings: The IMF’s October Global Financial Stability Report flags stretched equity valuations—especially the AI-led tech cohort—and rising odds of a disorderly correction. The BoE has voiced a similar risk: if optimism about AI fades, markets could lurch lower. That mix has supported the USD via risk-off flows. UK data softens: Fresh ONS labour data show unemployment up to 4.8% (3m to August) and wage growth cooling—nudging markets to price earlier BoE easing at the margin and weighing on GBP. Price action: Into today, GBP/USD has remained heavy, trading around the low-1.33s and briefly probing the 1.33–1.325 support area cited by several desks. Sellers faded bounces below ~1.336/1.340 resistance. Counterweight from the Fed: A softer USD blip followed coverage of Powell hinting at scope to cut and slow QT, but it hasn’t flipped the broader risk tone yet. How the IMF “AI bubble” angle feeds through to GBP/USD Risk sentiment channel: AI-froth concerns raise correction risk in U.S. megacap tech. When equities wobble, USD tends to catch a haven bid, pushing GBP/USD lower—that’s what we’re seeing. Rates/term-premium channel: The IMF also highlights fiscal and bond-market vulnerabilities. Any jump in U.S. yields on risk stress can be USD-supportive unless the Fed leans clearly dovish. Relative growth narrative: The IMF’s WEO/GFSR portray the U.S. as still relatively resilient (AI investment) while the UK grows ~1.3% and faces stickier inflation—tilting differentials toward the USD unless UK data surprise. Levels & Bias (tactical) Resistance: 1.336–1.340 (break/close above would ease pressure); then 1.348. Support: 1.330/1.325 first; loss of 1.325 risks a run toward the low-1.32s. Bias: Still mildly bearish while below ~1.340 given risk-off impulse + soft UK labour prints. A durable USD dip would need clearer Fed easing signals or stronger UK data. Near-term catalysts to watch (this week) UK August GDP/production (Thu 16 Oct): A miss likely reinforces GBP selling; an upside surprise could spark a squeeze toward 1.34–1.348. U.S. data/Fed speak: Any firm dovish steer could cap the dollar and stabilise cable; renewed equity stress on AI-bubble headlines would do the opposite. Bottom line Including the IMF’s AI-bubble warnings, the story so far is risk-off supportive of the USD, UK data are not helping sterling, and GBP/USD remains under pressure while sub-1.340. For hedging: favour sell-the-rally flow below 1.340 with eyes on 1.330/1.325 support; flip more neutral only on a daily close above 1.340 or if UK data positively surprise.
by Mark_Vader_Labs
GBP/USD Outlook for 13–17 October 2025 Technical Analysis GBP/USD 1-hour chart as of 13 Oct 2025. The pair has been trending lower in early October, making lower highs and testing support near the mid-1.32s. On the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, GBP/USD exhibits a clear short-term downtrend. After peaking around 1.3730 in September, the pair pulled back sharply to a multi-month low of 1.3263 by early October. This drop has pushed price below key moving averages across timeframes – for instance, on the daily chart it fell under the 50-day EMA, a bearish technical signal On H4 and H1, shorter period MAs are similarly sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance. The trend structure shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. In the 1-hour chart (above), the latest bounce to the 1.3370–1.3380 area was rejected, confirming that prior support as a newfound resistance zone. The market’s inability to break the descending trendline (visible on intraday charts) has kept the momentum bearish. Price patterns suggest the pair is consolidating after the recent sell-off, possibly forming a triangle or descending channel on the 4-hour chart. In fact, by the end of last week the pound was “forming a ‘Triangle’ pattern near 1.3442”. This pattern reflects indecision – a compression that could precede a breakout. A bearish triangle interpretation aligns with the downtrend: a break below the triangle’s lower boundary (around 1.3080–1.3100) would signal a fresh leg down, whereas breaking above 1.3440–1.3480 would invalidate the pattern and hint at recovery. Until one of these edges gives way, the pair may gyrate within this contracting range. Notably, volume spiked during the early October sell-off (as seen by large volume bars on the chart), indicating heavy selling interest when GBP/USD broke under mid-1.33. This suggests strong resistance on bounces – rallies have been on lighter volume, while declines saw higher participation, consistent with a market biased to the downside. Support and resistance zones are well-defined. Immediate support lies at 1.3260 (the recent swing low) – the area where buyers defended prices last week. Below that, analysts highlight 1.3185 as an “ultimate support” target for this pullback. This level is significant as it marks the next major floor (around the June/July lows) and a potential take-profit zone for short positions. If 1.3185 were to fail, it could trigger a steeper drop; the next supports would be around 1.3125–1.3130 (an earlier structural low) and the 1.3080 region (the base of the triangle pattern). On the upside, 1.3370–1.3400 has turned into the first key resistance. This zone, which roughly corresponds to the broken support from late September and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Sep–Oct slide, now caps intraday rebounds. It also aligns with the Ichimoku kijun and Senkou Span B (~1.3390–1.3430) on H4 charts, reinforcing its importance as a pivot area A sustained break above 1.3400 would neutralize the immediate bearish bias. Above, 1.3485 is the next focal level – technical forecasts indicate this as a likely corrective rally target if the pound strengthens.. Indeed, one weekly outlook suggests an attempt to test 1.3485 before sellers reassert control. Beyond 1.3485, additional resistance lies around 1.3535–1.3550 (prior congestion zone) and then 1.3680–1.3730 (the September high). However, such levels may only come into play on a significant sentiment shift. For now, traders will be watching 1.3370 and 1.3260 as inflection points – a breakout or breakdown beyond these could set the tone for short-term direction. In summary, the technical picture skews bearish going into the week. Trend indicators and moving averages point downward, and the pound’s failure to hold support indicates sellers remain in control. Key levels identified for short-term trading include: 1.3370 (near-term resistance/pivot), 1.3420 (strong resistance, near the 50-day MA and trendline confluence), 1.3260 (minor support), and 1.3185 (major support). Scalpers may look to sell rallies near resistance and buy dips at support, but should do so cautiously given the potential for a volatile breakout from the consolidative pattern. The volume profile suggests any breakout should be watched for volume confirmation – e.g. a high-volume push above 1.3400 could signal a real reversal, whereas a low-volume pop might fade quickly. Likewise, a spike in volume on a drop through 1.3260 would confirm fresh selling pressure. These technical cues, combined with the broader context, will guide intraday and swing positioning as we move through the week. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Central Bank Policy Outlook (BoE vs Fed): The policy stances of the Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve are central to GBP/USD’s medium-term direction. The Bank of England (BoE) has shifted to a more dovish footing in late 2025, as the UK economy shows signs of cooling. In August, the BoE cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.0%, the first cut since 2023 This decision was contentious – inflation was still ~3.8% (nearly double the 2% target) at that time, and nearly half of the BoE’s MPC members opposed the cut on inflation concerns. However, a couple of policymakers continued to vote for further cuts at the latest meeting, citing weakening growth. The BoE’s dilemma is clear: inflation remains above target, but economic momentum is fading. The bank’s current guidance leans toward staying on hold in the very near term, yet markets are beginning to price in the possibility of additional rate cuts in coming months if the downturn deepens. In short, the BoE’s policy outlook has turned cautious – rate cuts are on the table if data continue to deteriorate, though the bank is treading carefully given inflation’s persistence. The U.S. Federal Reserve likewise appears to have ended its rate-hiking cycle and is eyeing potential rate reductions ahead. U.S. inflation has moderated closer to the Fed’s target (headline CPI was last about 2.9% YoY in August), and the Fed adopted a pause in hikes since late 2024. Now, amid signs of slowing economic activity, the futures market is assigning ~75% probability that the Fed will cut rates twice more by end-2025. Fed officials have maintained a cautious tone, balancing lingering inflation risks against emerging growth and employment risks. Notably, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned of “dual risk” – that inflation could tick up again even as unemployment rises – which justifies a data-dependent approach. But if incoming data (once fully available) confirm cooling price pressures and softer growth, the bias will tilt toward monetary easing. In sum, both central banks are shifting from tightening to easing bias, but timing differs: the BoE has already made a cut (with some hesitation), whereas the Fed has paused but not cut yet. This relative stance will influence yield differentials – any hint of the Fed cutting sooner or more aggressively than the BoE tends to weaken the USD against GBP (and vice versa). Economic Indicators (Inflation, Growth, Employment): Recent data underscore the divergence in economic conditions. Inflation: UK price growth, while down from its 2022 peaks, is still elevated at 3.8% as of the last reading (August). In the U.S., inflation is lower (~3.1% core, 2.9% headline in Aug), much closer to the Fed’s 2% goal. Thus, real interest rates in the UK are more negative, which erodes consumer purchasing power and complicates BoE policy (they must support growth without letting inflation stay too high). Growth: The UK economy appears to be flatlining. July GDP was 0.0% (no growth), and forecasts for Q3 are modest. The upcoming UK monthly GDP for August (due 16 Oct) is a crucial data point – if it shows another month of stagnation or contraction, it will reinforce the narrative of a slowing UK economy. (Recent forecasts suggest 2025 UK GDP around 1.2–1.3% for the full year, aided by a better first half,, but momentum in H2 is weak.). The U.S. by contrast had a solid first half of 2025 and is still growing, though potentially at a slowing pace due to higher rates and external headwinds. With a U.S. government shutdown (more on that below) delaying data, markets have less visibility on current U.S. growth – but industrial output and other proxies will be watched for clues. Employment: The UK labor market is visibly cooling. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.7%, its highest in nearly four years, as of the three months to July. Joblessness has risen steadily from ~4.2% a year ago to 4.7% now, indicating slack is building. Wage growth has also come off the boil (regular pay ex-bonus grew 4.8% in that period, slowing from 5% prior). These trends point to less pressure from the labor side – something the BoE will take into account if unemployment continues to tick up. In the U.S., the labor market (last known unemployment ~3.8%) has softened only mildly from ultra-tight conditions, and weekly jobless claims – when reported – have been relatively low (though this week’s claims release is in doubt due to the shutdown).. Overall, macro fundamentals favor the dollar slightly: the U.S. has lower inflation and a stronger growth profile, whereas the UK faces higher inflation and stagnation. However, the flip side is that the Fed has more room to cut rates (since inflation is near target), while the BoE is constrained by still-high inflation. This tug-of-war in fundamentals is a key part of the GBP/USD equation. KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK (13–17 Oct 2025): A number of scheduled releases and events in the coming week could be catalysts for GBP/USD volatility: • UK Employment Report (Tue 14 Oct): The August labor market report from the ONS will be “scrutinised for signs of continued employment weakness”. Markets expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7%, but attention will also be on job gains/losses and wage figures. Given recent PMI surveys showed ongoing job cuts , any downside surprise (e.g. a rise in unemployment above 4.7% or poor employment change) could weaken GBP by bolstering expectations of BoE rate cuts. Conversely, an unexpectedly robust labor report (e.g. stable unemployment with strong wage growth) might lend support to sterling by suggesting the economy isn’t deteriorating as fast as feared. • China Trade & Inflation Data (Mon 13 and Wed 15 Oct): While not UK/US data, these will set the global risk tone. China’s September trade figures (exports/imports) out on Monday will be scoured for the impact of U.S. tariffs. Weak Chinese export numbers could heighten global growth fears – a negative for risk-sensitive currencies like GBP – whereas resilient data might improve sentiment. Similarly, China’s inflation (CPI) on Wednesday could influence commodities and risk appetite globally. • Eurozone Industrial Production (Wed 15 Oct): Another external factor, but relevant as a gauge of European economic health. A weaker eurozone output number could indirectly pressure GBP (since it often trades in tandem with EUR when broad USD moves occur), and it might reinforce the narrative of global slowdown. Strong output, on the other hand, could slightly ease recession fears in Europe. • UK Monthly GDP & Output (Thu 16 Oct): The UK GDP monthly estimate for August is due Thursday. Alongside, we expect industrial and manufacturing production figures for August (these are often released in the same report). This is one of the “week’s most significant releases for sterling traders”. The prior data showed zero GDP growth in July, so the question is whether August stayed flat, expanded modestly (perhaps a rebound of ~0.2%?), or contracted. Given “ongoing steep job losses” and other headwinds,, analysts worry the data could disappoint. A weak GDP or production reading would likely hit the pound, as it “could strengthen expectations for BoE rate cuts, weighing on sterling”. On the flip side, if the GDP/production numbers surprise to the upside (indicating the UK avoided a summer contraction), the pound may get a relief bounce as markets reassess the urgency of BoE easing. This data also comes just ahead of the UK government’s November Budget, potentially influencing fiscal considerations. • U.S. Data (All Week, subject to shutdown): The U.S. is in a unique situation with an ongoing federal government shutdown (now in its third year, per scenario) that is preventing the release of many official economic reports. Typically, this week would have seen September CPI (which was expected ~0.3% MoM) and retail sales, but those reports may not occur on schedule. The absence of U.S. data creates an “information vacuum” – ironically, this uncertainty has been supporting the dollar in recent sessions (as traders shy away from risk and default to USD) However, a few U.S. releases are still slated: Fed’s Industrial Production (Fri 17 Oct) should be published since the Fed compiles it, and it will be closely watched as a proxy for economic health. Forecasts had penciled in a +0.2–0.3% MoM rise after a slight fall previously. A weak industrial output number could undermine the dollar by upping Fed rate cut bets, while a stronger number might have the opposite effect. Additionally, weekly jobless claims (Thu) and retail sales (Wed) are at risk of delay due to the shutdown – if they are indeed not released, markets will lack those usual signals. Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Fri 17 Oct) is due; under normal conditions this is a second-tier report, but “given the current irrationality of the market, even a neutral reading may fuel further dollar strength” in these unusual times. Overall, the U.S. macro picture this week is murky – traders must “look to alternative data sources and international releases to gauge the health of the global economy”, which means UK data, China data, and any Fed speakers will take on added significance in guiding USD direction. • Federal Reserve and BoE Speakers: Both central banks have officials speaking at various forums (not explicitly listed in sources, but typically likely). Notably, any Fed official comments will be parsed for hints on how the shutdown/data gap is affecting policy plans. If Fed speakers strike a dovish tone (emphasizing downside risks or readiness to cut if needed), that could weaken the USD. If they sound hawkish (concerned about inflation despite lack of data), the dollar might firm up. For the BoE, any commentary about the impact of recent data (or hints ahead of the November meeting) could jolt GBP – e.g. if a BoE MPC member suggests that weak data could justify a cut soon, sterling would likely slip. IN SUMMARY, macroeconomic fundamentals present a mixed picture: the UK’s slowing growth and still-elevated inflation put the BoE in a tough spot, slightly skewing policy dovish, while the U.S. has steadier growth with cooling inflation, allowing the Fed room to ease – ordinarily a dollar-negative mix. However, the immediate focus is on this week’s data and events: UK jobs and GDP numbers will directly impact sterling, and the broader risk environment (influenced by the U.S. fiscal standoff and trade tensions) will drive the dollar side of the equation. Weak UK data coupled with ongoing U.S. risks would likely bolster the bearish case for GBP/USD, whereas any positive surprises from the UK or de-escalation of U.S. risks could spur a short-term rebound in the pound. Market Sentiment and Positioning Risk Sentiment: The overall market mood as we enter the week is one of cautious risk aversion, which has so far benefited the safe-haven U.S. dollar. A confluence of geopolitical and macro risks has rattled investors. Chief among them is the prolonged U.S. government shutdown (an unprecedented scenario where the shutdown has dragged on, creating significant uncertainty. This has led to worries about U.S. fiscal stability and has deprived markets of key economic data, increasing volatility. Another major overhang is the escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions: the U.S. administration (under President Trump) has threatened new 130% tariffs on Chinese goods by November, to which China may retaliate. Fears of a “renewed trade war” have dampened global growth sentiment. In Europe, political uncertainty (such as the French political crisis mentioned in analyses) has also contributed to a risk-off tone. This swirl of uncertainties has driven investors toward the safety of the U.S. dollar, pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to a multi-week high around the 99 level (its strongest in about two months. It’s telling that despite expectations of U.S. rate cuts, the dollar has risen – “paradoxically… strengthening despite the lack of major data releases,” as traders flock to USD whenever a new risk emerges. Another barometer, the VIX volatility index, has been elevated in recent weeks; it remains near the high-teens (around 18–20),, reflecting heightened investor nervousness. Elevated VIX typically correlates with a stronger USD and weaker risk-sensitive currencies like GBP, as traders reduce exposure to perceived risk. For the pound, general market sentiment has been bearish, independent of UK-specific factors. One forex analyst noted that the pound “continues falling and the dollar continues to rise” largely due to global factors, observing that the market at times “doesn’t seem to care about fundamentals or substance – it simply needs an excuse to buy dollars”. This underscores how sentiment-driven the recent moves have been. In fact, GBP’s decline has been partly sympathetic to the euro’s slide; with the euro hit by European growth and political worries, the pound (often correlated) is “being pulled down alongside the euro, regardless of whether there’s a U.K.-specific rationale”. Such herd behavior implies that until the global backdrop calms, sterling may have trouble finding its footing even if UK data aren’t terrible. However, sentiment can turn on a dime. If we see any resolution or improvement in these risk factors – for example, hints of a U.S. fiscal deal to end the shutdown, or a dial-back of tariff threats – then the safe-haven bid for dollars could quickly unwind, boosting GBP/USD. Additionally, equity market performance will be influential: a continued sell-off in global stocks would likely keep USD bid (since USD often gains when investors liquidate risky assets), whereas a stock rebound would signal risk appetite returning, which could help the pound recover some ground. Traders should therefore monitor headlines on the U.S. budget negotiations, trade talks, and even other geopolitical flashpoints throughout the week for shifts in risk sentiment. COT and Positioning: The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data (as of late September) indicates that large speculative traders are not extremely positioned on GBP – their long vs short positions are nearly balanced. Unlike some past episodes where speculators were heavily short the pound, currently the net position of non-commercials is around neutral. In fact, in the most recent COT report, speculators added about 4,600 net long contracts on GBP (via adding longs and closing shorts). This suggests that institutional players had turned modestly bullish on the pound’s prospects going into October. Notably, this shift occurred as GBP/USD was rising earlier in 2025 (the pound had “risen sharply in 2025” largely due to one driver – U.S. policy under Trump – that weakened the dollar). Now, with the dollar’s rebound, those net longs might be underwater, but the key takeaway is that positioning is not maxed out in either direction. There isn’t a massive short overhang on GBP that would fuel a short squeeze, nor an extreme long position that would exacerbate a sell-off. This balanced positioning could mean the pair is freer to move on fresh fundamental impulses rather than positional unwinding. It also implies that if a strong trend does develop (up or down), there is room for traders to build positions in that direction. On the USD side, positioning has been shifting against the dollar in the bigger picture. Market commentary notes that the “dollar’s net positioning continues to deteriorate” in relative terms – many traders have been positioning for a weaker dollar over the medium term, anticipating Fed rate cuts and an end to USD’s yield advantage. This undercurrent could become important if the immediate risk-off mood eases: with so many expecting a dollar downtrend to resume, the turn in sentiment could see a wave of USD selling (and hence GBP buying). But in the very short term, as we’ve seen, those expectations are taking a back seat to fear-driven moves. Market Internals and Other Indicators: The US Dollar Index breaking above its 100-day MA last week shows short-term momentum is with the dollar. Yet analysts caution that this might not herald a long-term trend reversal – it “remains uncertain amid emerging expectations for further U.S. rate cuts”. In other words, the dollar’s recent strength could be a counter-trend rally in an otherwise bearish 2025 trajectory. If we zoom out, 2025 as a whole had seen a significant dollar decline (the DXY hit a 3-year low in June before rebounding). The pound’s broader trend this year was up until this recent pullback. Many investment houses (e.g. Cambridge Currencies analysis) still forecast the USD to weaken again by late 2025 unless major global risk events persist Investor sentiment gauges like the S&P 500 VIX (near 19) and safe-haven flows into assets like U.S. Treasuries will be watched closely. If the VIX spikes above 20, it’s a sign of rising fear – typically bearish for GBP/USD. Conversely, if VIX subsides and equity markets stabilize or rally, risk appetite is improving, likely helping GBP. Also of note is the performance of commodities and emerging market currencies (sensitive to China news); a stabilization there could indicate that the market is absorbing the tariff risk better than feared. IN SUMMARY, market sentiment and positioning heading into the week favor the U.S. dollar, but the situation is fluid. The pound is weighed down by a general risk-off environment and lacks a bullish narrative of its own right now. Large traders are not aggressively shorting it (positions are roughly balanced), which means any shift in sentiment (good news or data) could allow for a rebound as dollars are unwound. Conversely, without a positive catalyst, sentiment-driven dollar demand could continue to pressure GBP/USD. It’s a market that “doesn’t care why it’s buying dollars” at the moment – any trigger is fueling USD strength – so sterling bulls will need a clear spark (such as upbeat UK data or easing of U.S. risks) to turn the tide. Until then, caution is warranted, as the environment has been described as “chaotic and unpredictable… not the most favorable for traders” Integrated Forecast and Scenarios (13–17 Oct 2025) Bringing together the technical, macro, and sentiment factors, our outlook for GBP/USD over the coming week leans cautiously bearish, with room for brief recoveries. The directional bias is bearish on a multi-day swing basis, while intraday trading may see two-way volatility (neutral-to-slightly bearish intraday bias). In practical terms, this suggests we expect the pound to remain under pressure overall, but with choppy ups and downs in the day-to-day sessions. Below we outline likely scenarios and key technical targets under different outcomes, along with important caveats: Baseline Scenario – Bearish Bias: The most likely scenario is that GBP/USD sees further downside drift, consistent with its prevailing downtrend. Weak UK data and persistent risk-off sentiment could be the catalysts. For instance, if Tuesday’s UK jobs report shows rising unemployment or soft wage growth, and Thursday’s GDP figures confirm stagnation, markets would increasingly price in BoE rate cuts, weighing on the pound Simultaneously, if the U.S. shutdown standoff and tariff threats remain unresolved, the safe-haven demand for USD should persist. Under this baseline, GBP/USD would probably test the 1.3260 support early in the week and could break below it. A daily close under 1.3260 would likely invite momentum sellers. The next downside target is around 1.3185, which analysts have identified as a strong support level (and take-profit area for shorts). Indeed, one strategy recommends short positions with 1.3185 as the goal. Should 1.3185 be reached (possibly on a significant news trigger), we would expect some profit-taking and a bounce attempt from the bulls. If the bearish forces are overwhelming, a decisive breach below 1.3185 would be very bearish – it could open the door toward 1.3080–1.3100 (the lower boundary of the triangle pattern on higher timeframes). Note that a drop to those levels would likely confirm a breakdown from the consolidation pattern, potentially accelerating losses. However, a fall that deep in one week may require an outsized shock or extremely poor UK outcomes. Our baseline sees 1.3185 holding (at least initially), with GBP/USD perhaps closing the week in the mid-1.32s after probing lower. The bias would remain bearish unless we get a clear upside breakout signal. Bullish/Relief Scenario – Short-Term Rebound: While not the central expectation, there is a plausible scenario where GBP/USD bounces higher this week. This could happen if the news flow flips sentiment – for example, suppose UK data come in better than expected (steady unemployment, and a positive surprise in GDP or manufacturing output). That would alleviate some concerns about the UK economy and reduce immediate BoE easing bets, helping GBP. Additionally, if U.S. political leaders make progress toward ending the shutdown or if the rhetoric on tariffs cools, risk sentiment would improve, likely weakening the USD safe-haven bid. Technically, any rally would first face the 1.3370–1.3400 resistance zone. A move above 1.3400 (especially a daily close above) would “invalidate the bearish outlook” in the short term, signaling that a larger rebound is underway. In that case, short-covering could quickly carry the pair to the next resistance at 1.3480–1.3485. Analysts cite 1.3485 as a probable target for a bullish correction – this level is near the upper trendline of the recent triangle and also roughly the 38.2% Fib retracement of the Sep–Oct drop. We would expect sellers to defend 1.3485 aggressively on first test. If, however, 1.3485 is conquered (in an extreme risk-on or USD-negative scenario), the door opens to 1.3530+ (the next supply zone, where the 50-day MA and prior highs converge). A “strong rally and breakout of the 1.3865 area” is considered highly unlikely this week, but if it occurred, it would “cancel out the GBP/USD decline… signaling continued growth above 1.4205” in a much broader bull scenario. To be clear, that is beyond any reasonable 1-week forecast – mentioned here only as the ultimate bullish invalidation level (i.e. the point beyond which the entire bearish trend of 2025 would be reversed). In summary, in a relief scenario we see GBP/USD potentially climbing into the mid-1.34s; our upside bias for the week would turn neutral/bullish only on a firm break of 1.3400, with 1.3485 as a best-case objective before renewed range trading. Range/Volatile Neutral Scenario: Given the conflicting forces, it’s also possible the pair will whipsaw within a rough range (say 1.33–1.34) without a clear trend, as traders await bigger catalysts. This could happen if data and news come in mixed – e.g. UK employment is slightly weak (pushing GBP down) but GDP is slightly above forecast (pushing it up), while on the U.S. side the lack of data continues to cloud direction. In such a case, neither bulls nor bears gain full control, and the market could see choppy range trading. Intraday volatility might be high (with 30-50 pip swings on headlines), but the week’s end could see GBP/USD not far from where it started (around mid-1.33s). Important levels for range-bound action would be the same support/resistance noted (1.3260 floor, 1.3400 ceiling). Traders might then focus on short-term scalping: buying near support and selling near resistance, albeit with tight stops given headline risk. Caveats and Risks: This forecast carries several caveats given the unusual market conditions. Firstly, event risk is exceptionally high – unexpected political breakthroughs or breakdowns (for instance, a sudden resolution of the U.S. funding impasse, or conversely an abrupt escalation like China retaliating on trade) can spur outsized moves that override technical levels. Traders should be prepared for potentially elevated volatility in this “information vacuum” environment, including possible wider spreads and whipsaw price action. As one market insight noted, “market conditions remain chaotic and unpredictable… I mean... This is not the most favorable environment for traders. Caution is advised. ” . Use of stop-loss orders and disciplined position sizing is crucial. Secondly, the reliability of technical patterns may be lower when fundamental news shocks hit – a level like 1.3185 could break temporarily on a spike only for the price to revert, for example. Therefore, one should not rely solely on static levels; confirmation signals (such as sustaining a break for some hours, or high volume on the breakout) add confidence before acting. Thirdly, keep an eye on correlated markets: if equity indices or commodities make big moves, FX often reacts. A rally in stock markets (signaling risk-on) could boost GBP/USD beyond what the UK-specific factors would suggest, whereas a stock sell-off could sink it further. Lastly, the scenario of continued missing U.S. data means Fed communication becomes critical – any ad hoc comments or guidance changes from the Fed in light of missing CPI/retail data would be market-moving. IN CONCLUSION, our integrated analysis suggests a mildly bearish trajectory for GBP/USD this week , with an expectation that the pair gravitates lower unless counteracted by positive news. The intraday bias is for volatile, range-bound trading (many small swings with no strong trend, until a catalyst arrives), whereas the swing bias (over the 5-day horizon) leans bearish – we anticipate the week’s developments are more likely to favor USD strength/GBP weakness than the opposite. Key technical price targets are 1.3185 on the downside and 1.3485 on the upside, with interim levels (1.3260 and 1.3370) guiding the near-term moves. We foresee two main scenarios: either a continuation lower towards the low-1.32s if data and sentiment disappoint (our base case), or a bounce to mid-1.34s if the pound gets a fundamental or sentimental reprieve. Traders should be ready for both, mapping out their tactics (stop-loss placements, take-profit levels) around the breakout/breakdown zones identified. Above all, remain nimble – this week demands close attention to news flashes and an adaptive approach. As the saying goes, “ trade what you see, not what you expect ,” especially in an environment where a single headline can tip the balance. By blending the technical signals with macro and sentiment context, one can navigate the likely scenarios, but also be prepared to quickly adjust if the market narrative shifts unexpectedly. Ultimately, caution and careful analysis of incoming information will be the key to successfully trading GBP/USD in the week ahead. Sources: • Technical analysis of GBP/USD price action and key levels • Macroeconomic background on BoE/Fed policy and UK/US economic data • Market sentiment drivers and positioning insights Scenario forecasts for GBP/USD October 13–17, 2025
by Mark_Vader_Labs
Gold Pullback Opportunity Within Strong Bullish MomentumAnalysis: The XAU/USD chart shows that gold has maintained a powerful upward trajectory, breaking out of its previous consolidation channel (highlighted in purple). After the breakout, price surged to new highs near 4,120, confirming strong bullish momentum. Currently, the market is showing a minor pullback toward the 4,090–4,060 zone — a region aligning with previous resistance turned support. This retracement appears healthy and could provide buyers a chance to re-enter before another leg up. The bullish continuation setup is supported by: Previous breakout retest: The price is testing the prior resistance area, which could now act as strong support. Momentum structure: Higher highs and higher lows remain intact. Favorable risk-reward ratio: The long position targets around 4,180, with stops below 4,060 support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
ALVES Stock Analysis & CommentaryALVES Stock Analysis & Commentary Daily technical indicators are positive. After forming support at 27.26, the stock appears to be recovering from that level. With indicators also showing positive momentum, we believe further recovery may occur. In a potential bullish scenario, the stock could have a chance to test the 21-day moving average (30.68). Resistance Levels: 28.70 – 29.62 – 30.76 – 31.58 Support Levels: 27.26 – 26.26 – 25.60 We’d appreciate it if you could boost our posts and share them on your social media. 🚀 Legal Disclaimer: The information, comments, and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided only within the framework of an investment advisory agreement to be signed between the investor and authorized institutions such as brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, and non-deposit banks. The opinions expressed here are personal views and may not be suitable for your financial situation, risk profile, or return preferences. Therefore, no investment decisions should be made based solely on the information and opinions presented on this page.
BIST:ALVESLong
by SinerjiPortfoy
GOLD Breakout Done , Long Setup Valid To Get 300 Pips !Here is My 15 Min Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , the price going up very hard without any correction so we should move with it and we have a 4H Candle closure above our Res 4180.00 And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy after the price go back to retest the broken area 4180.00 One more time and we have already a great touch that take all stop losses before going up so i think the second touch will be better and will give us a good chance to enter with good stop loss , and we can be targeting 100 to 300 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore . Reasons To Enter : 1- Perfect Touch For The Area . 2- Clear Bullish Price Action . 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A . 4- The Price Take The Last High . 5- Perfect 4H Closure .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Elite_Club
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