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Xauusdanalysis

XAUUSD (GOLD) Trend Shift Confirmed After Third Drive ReactionHi! Gold has completed a clear Three-Drive Reversal pattern, with the third drive tapping into the major support zone around 4165–4175. This area has repeatedly acted as a strong demand pocket, and the sharp reaction confirms buyers are still active. Following the third drive, price broke the minor descending trendline, signaling the first shift in short-term momentum. Current Structure After breaking the trendline, price is now forming a healthy sequence of higher lows. The next key area is the mid-range supply zone at 4215–4220 (highlighted in red). A controlled pullback into higher-low structure would maintain bullish pressure and build the base for continuation. Upside Targets If buyers successfully reclaim the 4215–4220 zone, the next major target sits at the 4237–4240 resistance (green zone). This aligns with the next liquidity cluster and previous strong reaction points. ⚠️ Validation The bullish scenario remains valid as long as price holds above the structure created after the third drive. A heavy rejection back below the support zone would invalidate the setup. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
28
Gold 1H – Will 4232 Liquidity Trigger Reversal or 4188 Hold Flow🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (10/12) 📈 Market Context Gold trades inside a politically-driven liquidity landscape after former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that rate-cut willingness will be his litmus test for selecting a new Fed Chair. This comment injects uncertainty into interest-rate expectations, making markets sensitive to any shifts in forward guidance. Higher-for-longer fears remain intact intraday, keeping gold capped below premium zones while liquidity builds on both edges. On H1, price is compressing around mid-range with clean liquidity resting at 4232 above and 4188–4190 below—ideal sweep conditions before institutions commit to direction. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Sideways compression after BOS + CHoCH sequence Key Idea: Expect a sweep above 4230–4232 or below 4190–4188 before true displacement Liquidity Zones & Triggers: • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4190 – 4188 | SL 4180 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG/OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240 Rules: ✔ Price sweeps the liquidity cluster above 4230 ✔ Bearish MSS/CHoCH on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS + clean bearish displacement ✔ Entry via FVG refill or refined OB retest Targets: 1. 4212 2. 4200 3. 4190 🟢 BUY GOLD 4190 – 4188 | SL 4180 Rules: ✔ Liquidity grab under 4190–4188 ✔ Bullish MSS/CHoCH confirms demand takeover ✔ Upside BOS + impulsive displacement from discount ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4205 2. 4220 3. 4230–4232 ⚠️ Risk Notes • Trump’s remarks may spark abrupt shifts in expectations → avoid entries without BOS + displacement • Don’t chase candles inside the compression channel • SL placement must respect structural invalidation • Reduce exposure if volatility spikes during Fed-related headlines 📍 Summary Today’s play revolves around two liquidity-driven scenarios: • A 4232 sweep triggers bearish structure, delivering into 4200 → 4190 or • A 4188 liquidity grab forms bullish MSS, expanding toward 4220 → 4232 Let structure confirm—SMC is reaction, not prediction. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
7
Price Compressing Below Trendline, Waiting for a Liquidity SweepGold continues to consolidate inside a narrow range as markets wait for fresh USD flows and upcoming Fed expectations. Sellers are losing momentum, but buyers still haven’t secured a clean breakout as price remains capped beneath the short-term descending trendline. Current structure suggests a classic “liquidity sweep → bullish reversal” setup, with clear liquidity buildup sitting underneath the market. 📊 MMF Technical Outlook (H1) 1️⃣ Price reacting around a previous POC zone (Volume Profile) Heavy traded area → easy for fake moves No clean breakout above 4,218 yet 2️⃣ Key Levels – Main Setup Favors “Dip-Buy” Important zones: 4,218 – 4,220 → Minor supply + descending trendline; breakout needed for bullish continuation 4,190 – 4,181 → Liquidity sweep zone (ideal buy area) 4,242 → Main upside target if breakout confirms Structure shows price may dip lower first to clear liquidity before reversing upward. 🎯 MMF Daily Plan – BUY After Liquidity Sweep ▶️ Primary Scenario (High-Probability) Wait for price to sweep liquidity into 4,190 → 4,181. 🔹 BUY Zone: 4,190 – 4,181 🔹 SL: below 4,172 🔹 TP1: 4,218 🔹 TP2: 4,242 Why this works: Confluence: liquidity pocket + fib retracement + structural demand MMF Flow suggests a clearing phase before bullish expansion ▶️ Secondary Scenario (Break & Retest) If price breaks strongly above 4,218, wait for a clean retest to join the trend. 🔹 Entry: 4,218 – 4,220 🔹 TP: 4,242 🧭 MMF Bias Today Bias: Neutral → Bullish as long as 4,180 holds Avoid FOMO buys into 4,218 resistance Only engage after a sweep or a clear BOS + retest
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
10
Gold 1H – Will 4210 Reject Again or 4166 Ignite the Rally?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (09/12) 📈 Market Context Gold continues to soften under $4,200 as rising US Treasury yields pressure bullion, with markets positioning ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. According to FXStreet, yields climbing intraday are capping gold’s upside, and sellers remain active below 4200 while participants wait for clarity on the Fed’s forward guidance. This environment builds a liquidity-sensitive landscape, where institutions may engineer sweeps on both sides before committing to direction. On H1, price oscillates cleanly between premium supply (4208–4210) and discount demand (4168–4166). A valid push requires MSS → BOS → displacement from either extreme. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H) Current Phase: Sideways compression after consecutive CHoCH shifts Key Idea: Expect liquidity grabs above 4210 or under 4166 before real movement Liquidity Zones & Triggers • 🔴 SELL GOLD 4208 – 4210 | SL 4218 • 🟢 BUY GOLD 4168 – 4166 | SL 4158 Institutional Flow Expectation: sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG/OB retest → expansion 🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones) 🔴 SELL GOLD 4208 – 4210 | SL 4218 Rules: ✔ Price taps premium zone (4208–4210) ✔ Bearish MSS/CHoCH confirmed on M5–M15 ✔ Strong downside BOS + displacement ✔ Enter on FVG fill or refined supply OB retest Targets: 1. 4185 2. 4175 3. 4168 – 4166 🟢 BUY GOLD 4168 – 4166 | SL 4158 Rules: ✔ Sweep under 4167 to collect sell-side liquidity ✔ Bullish MSS/CHoCH forms from discount ✔ Clean BOS + impulsive displacement upward ✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest Targets: 1. 4184 2. 4200 3. 4210 ⚠️ Risk Notes • Rising yields may generate deceptive spikes—avoid entries without BOS + displacement • Do not chase price inside the compression range • Keep SLs at structural invalidation, not arbitrary points • Reduce exposure ahead of Fed-related volatility this week 📍 Summary Today’s setup revolves around two institutional scenarios: • A 4210 liquidity sweep triggers bearish structure → downside delivery toward 4166 or • A 4166 liquidity grab forms bullish MSS → upside expansion back toward 4210 Let structure confirm. Patience pays the trader—SMC reacts, never predicts. ⚡️ 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
31
Elite | XAUUSD 30M — Liquidity Compression → Trend Support Hold OANDA:XAUUSD Primary Bias — Bullish Continuation Setup (if Confirmed) A break + hold above 4210-4220 breaker zone would trigger premium delivery toward the buy-side pool. 🎯 Target 1: 4238 🎯 Target 2: 4250-4255 liquidity 🎯 Extended: 4268 aggressive flush zone Bearish Breakdown Case (No romanticizing) Close below 4175 = structure collapses. No retest nonsense — the bid evaporates. 📉 Target 1: 4148 📉 Final Flush: 4118 institutional rebid demand No middle-ground. Price either holds demand or bleeds. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational analysis only — not financial advice.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Elite-Forex-Trades
4
XAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile before FedXAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile before Fed: watch for a rebound to sell down Market snapshot Ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement, gold is moving sideways within a fairly wide range, not yet choosing a clear direction. In the H1 timeframe, the price fluctuates around the value area, making it very suitable for short-term trading according to the Volume Profile instead of trying to predict the meeting outcome. Volume Profile – Key price areas Nearest VAL: around 4.197 – the bottom of the current value area, where there was previous buying support. Above, the FVG area + VAH/POC cluster is around 4.210 – this is an "air pocket" area where selling pressure can easily appear when the price fills the liquidity gap. Below, the target for a downward wave if the Fed is not too dovish is around 4.13x (area 4.130–4.135) – coinciding with the old buy zone on the chart. Trading scenario according to Volume Profile Watch for a light Buy reaction at VAL 4.197 If the price slides to 4.197 and a nice rejection candle appears on H1/M15, a short scalp buy can be considered: Idea: capture the rebound from VAL back to the middle/top of the value area, do not hold the position long. Sell when the price fills FVG around 4.210 (priority scenario) After the rebound from VAL, the FVG area 4.210 will be where Brian prioritizes watching for a Sell: Reference sell entry: around 4.208–4.212 TP1: 4.185–4.180 TP2: 4.165–4.160 TP3: area 4.13x (4.130–4.135) if a strong sell-off occurs after the Fed SL should be placed neatly above the FVG/VAH area (e.g., 4.218–4.220), avoid setting it too far. Fed context – Why trade cautiously? The focus this week is the FOMC meeting: The market is waiting to see if Chairman Powell can create enough consensus to continue cutting interest rates with very few members opposing, similar to the previous 25 bps cut. If the Fed maintains a dovish tone → USD weakens, yields cool down, gold is likely to bounce back after the sweep. If Powell signals a "hawkish rate cut" (concern about inflation, cut less – talk tough) → yields rise, gold may complete a deep decline to the 4.13x area before stabilizing again.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
4
Chumtrades XAUUSD Outlook – Will Gold Continue Sideways Today?🎯 XAUUSD – Sideway Day Before FOMC 1️⃣ Market Context H4 is clearly moving sideways: small candle bodies – long upper and lower wicks, indicating hesitation before FOMC (occurring the night of the 11th into the morning of the 12th). The price is currently locked in the H4 range: Lower boundary: 4176–4180 Upper boundary: 4215–4218 Today I am observing the price moving sideways within this range. 2️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy BUY low – priority Watch for reactions at the zones: 4180 – 4182 4174 – 4178 (bottom of H4 range) 4155 – 415X (most attractive BUY zone) → Short target: 4200 – 4210 → SL below support zone by 100 pips 🔻 SELL high – priority Watch for reactions at: 4212 – 4218 (top of H4 range) 4230 – 4233 (strong resistance – most attractive sell zone) → Target: return to mid-range 4190 → bottom of range 417X → SL above resistance zone by 100 pips The nearest zone is 4202-4198, this entry can be considered 3️⃣ Expected Movement Today → Sideways within H4 box 4176 ⇆ 4212. Just trade according to the range: buy low – sell high. Expected daily fluctuation range is 50-55 prices. A true breakout may occur tomorrow or the day after, as the market prepares for this week's FOMC. 📌 Note Prioritize candle reactions at price zones. Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range. Divide positions smaller than usual as the market tightens before major news. Find this analysis useful? Press Follow to update the plan daily before trading hours and discuss more effective strategies! Wishing everyone a day of total victory in trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
5
XAUUSD Reversal Zone Targets 4250📊 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis Gold has bounced strongly from the lower support zone and is now reclaiming structure after breaking out of the previous consolidation block. Price is currently stabilizing around 4195–4200, showing exhaustion from the earlier sell-off. The key level to watch is 4220, which acts as the bullish flip zone: ✔ Above 4220 → Buyers gain control ✔ Clean path toward 4250 ✔ Breakout retest structure matches your projection Once 4220 is secured as support, momentum is likely to push toward the 4250 resistance, which aligns with the chart’s mapped target zone. --- 🎯 Bullish Outlook First confirmation: Break & close above 4220 Main target: 4250
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Sofia_Summer
38
Selena | XAUUSD 1H – Sweep → Accumulation → Demand Reaction PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Gold continues to respect the major ascending support channel while repeatedly sweeping sell-side liquidity into the same rebid demand. Current price is compressing below breakout structure, suggesting accumulation before expansion. Untapped buy-side liquidity remains above 4240–4260 — a clean future draw. Primary Bias — Bullish Delivery if Price Holds Demand Hold above CRQ Demand 4170–4185 → 🎯 Target 1: 4214 (Breaker reclaim) 🎯 Target 2: 4232 (Pre-FOMC high fill) 🎯 Main Objective: 4256–4268 Buy-Side Liquidity Pool Break and acceptance below 4165 → Resistance: 4232 / 4256-4268 Support: 4170-4185 (CRQ Validation) / 4165 (Kill-Switch Level) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This view is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
5
Compound interest within the golden rangeGold surged to 4118 yesterday, then fluctuated during the European session before falling rapidly during the US session. Today, the Asian and European sessions continued the bearish trend from yesterday's US session, but after falling to a low of 4170, it rebounded quickly. Currently, both bullish and bearish trends exist. Today, shorting at higher levels and going long at lower levels can be considered. Overall strategy: Given the current range-bound trading, maintain range-bound trading for now. Further updates will be provided.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nfydwm
1
XAU/USD: Gold Tests Liquidity Floor, Eyes Reversal BUYGold remains under pressure during the Asian session as a stronger USD and cautious sentiment ahead of key US data keep the market defensive. However, the short-term structure shows weakening downside momentum, suggesting a potential liquidity sweep before a bullish reversal. 📊 MMF Technical Outlook (M30 – H1) 1️⃣ Price is approaching the liquidity zone: 4,176 – 4,170 This area aligns with: Previous session liquidity sweep Lower trendline support Strong BUY reactions in past sessions 👉 High probability for a short-term bottom. 2️⃣ Resistance holds at 4,194 – 4,210 Confluence of supply + descending trendline Multiple rejections here 👉 Only a strong close above 4,210 confirms bullish continuation. 3️⃣ Current structure favors a “Liquidity Grab → Reversal” pattern Signals include: Repeated lower-wick rejections Weakening downside pressure Potential W-pattern forming above the trendline 👉 BUY setups become favorable once the liquidity sweep completes. 🎯 MMF Trading Plan – BUY Reversal Priority ▶️ Scenario 1 — BUY at Liquidity Zone Wait for price to tap and react: 🔹 BUY Zone: 4,176 – 4,170 🔹 SL: below 4,164 🔹 TP1: 4,194 🔹 TP2: 4,210 🔹 TP3: 4,228 (extended target if breakout occurs) ▶️ Scenario 2 — Break & Retest Setup If price breaks above 4,194: 🔹 Retest BUY: 4,194 – 4,196 🔹 Targets: 4,210 → 4,228 🧭 MMF Daily Bias Primary Bias: BUY as long as 4,170 holds Strategy: Accumulate on liquidity dips – avoid chasing mid-range Invalidation: H1 close below 4,164
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
4
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – Bullish Setup & Key ZonesPrice is holding above the pivot zone and showing strength after retesting support. The bullish structure remains valid as long as price stays above 4,188. Key Levels: Entry Zone: Around 4,203 First Target: 4,260 Invalidation: Below 4,146 This analysis is based on trend continuation and zone reactions. Always confirm with your own strategy and manage risk. DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE EDUACTIONAL PURPOSE ONLY.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Revan_Dynasty_Trades
2
Consider buying at the low point. Sell at the resistance level.Gold saw little movement in the Asian and European markets, but the rebound in the US session was weak, remaining under pressure below 4220, just as Quaid predicted over the weekend, perfectly reaching the profit target. The 1-hour chart still shows an overall sideways trend, but the gold rebound is relatively weak. If gold rebounds in the US session and continues to be pressured below 4220, short positions can be considered, with support at 4160 to watch. Gold is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. Key resistance levels to watch are 4225-4230, while key support levels are 4165-4175. The technical picture indicates a consolidation trend, requiring patience to wait for key entry points. Gold is still range-bound in the short term, without a clear one-sided trend, so continue trading within the range and wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to determine a clear direction for gold. Trading Strategy: Buy at 4160-4170, stop loss at 4150, profit target 4200-4230. If the price rebounds to around 4220 and encounters resistance, you can maintain the strategy of shorting at that level. More trading information will be updated in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid_3
4
Gold traded within a rangeIn the short term, gold remains range-bound. It's not advisable to chase higher prices before a valid breakout. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. Consider entering long positions near 4195. If the price breaks through the 4230 resistance level, add to long positions, targeting the 4245-4255 area. This area represents a resistance zone formed by connecting the previous downtrend highs; a break above this level would signal the start of a daily-level rebound in gold. In the short term, the market will likely continue to trade within a range; the strategy should be to buy on dips.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nfydwm
2
Selena | XAUUSD 30M – Demand Reaction Setup | Sweep → Retest PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Price has returned into a previous demand zone where market absorbed sell-side liquidity. As long as price holds above the invalidation line, gold has strong probability to push back upward toward premium pricing. Break below demand → structure flips bearish & deeper discount test opens. Key Scenarios 🟢 Bullish Case – Reversal From Demand 🚀 Hold above 4165–4180 zone → 🎯 Target 1: 4212 🎯 Target 2: 4246 🎯 Target 3: 4270–4285 liquidity fill ❌ Bearish Invalidator Clean break + candle close below 4165 → 🎯 Downside sweep into 4146 → 4110–4120 (major support) Current Levels to Watch Resistance 🔴: 4246 / 4270–4285 Support 🟢: 4165–4180 demand block ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
16
XAUUSD: Bullish Push to 4295?FX:XAUUSD is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price bouncing within an upward channel after recent lower highs and higher lows, converging with a potential entry zone near support that could spark upside momentum if buyers hold the channel amid volatility. This setup suggests a rally opportunity post-correction, targeting higher resistance levels with overall risk-reward exceeding 1:3.5 .🔥 Entry between 4160–4175 for a long position. Targets at 4245 (first), 4295 (second). Set a stop loss at a valid break below the upward channel, yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.5 in total. Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging gold's resilience in the channel. Fundamentally , gold is consolidating around $4,193 in mid-December 2025, with today's FOMC meeting on December 10 drawing intense focus as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut —the third consecutive reduction—bringing the key rate to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. However, the decision may come with hawkish guidance signaling a potential pause in future cuts amid divisions among officials urging caution, influenced by conflicting economic data like resilient labor markets and cooling inflation. Investors will scrutinize Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting press briefing for clues on the 2026 outlook, where dovish signals could boost gold's safe-haven appeal by weakening the USD further, though hawkish tones might cap gains. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Long): 4160 – 4175 (Entry inside this zone remains valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Targets: • 4245 (first) • 4295 (second) ❌ Stop Loss: A valid break & close below the upward channel ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: More than 1:3.5 overall 💡 Your view? Does XAUUSD hold the channel support and push toward 4295 — or will FOMC volatility create another dip first? 👇
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Master_Hunter
1
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 10, 20251. Momentum D1: The D1 momentum has already turned upward. Therefore, we expect an upward move on the daily timeframe lasting through the end of this week to complete the green wave C. H4: H4 momentum is currently turning down. If the current H4 candle closes confirming this downward signal, the market is likely to form a short-term H4 decline. H1: H1 momentum is still rising but is starting to contract and show signs of a bearish reversal. The most recent strong bearish candle with wide downside range indicates that the next downward swing may begin from the H1 timeframe. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure D1: The D1 wave structure has not changed from the previous plan. Price is still progressing within the green wave C. When the green wave C completes, the purple wave X will also complete, followed by a decline forming wave Y. With D1 momentum turning upward, our expected targets for the purple wave C remain 4329 or 4336. H4: Yesterday, price touched the projected target area at 4167 and then bounced back to the POC zone, as anticipated. The current bearish reversal on H4 momentum is critical: • If price can remain above 4187 while H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone and then reverses upward, we may see the formation of a 5-wave green structure, which would be an early signal that the corrective wave (4) has completed. • If price fails to hold above 4187 while H4 momentum continues downward, the green wave (4) may extend further. H1: Yesterday’s decline toward the 4168 target strengthens the expectation that wave (C) of the black flat structure (A)-(B)-(C) has completed, meaning green wave (4) may also be complete. Price then rallied toward the POC at 4215, which we expect to be wave 1. The current decline shows a 3-wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) in red, which we expect to be wave 2. The projected completion zones for wave 2 (the end of red wave (C)) are: • Equal to wave (A): 4197 • 1.618 × wave (A): 4187 From the H4 Volume Profile: • The two key levels discussed yesterday were POC 4215 and the liquidity boundary at 4187. • With H4 momentum now turning down and price reacting to POC from below, selling pressure remains dominant. • Level 4187 acts as the liquidity boundary—if buyers can defend this level, a breakout above 4215 becomes likely. • If 4187 does not hold while H4 momentum moves into oversold, the green wave (4) could still be ongoing. ________________________________________ 3. Trading Plan We will look to capture the end of wave 2. Since the two target zones (4197 and 4187) are close to each other, the best approach is to wait for price to reach these areas and observe the reaction before entering. If placing a limit order, I prefer the upper zone with a slightly wider stop. BUY ZONE: 4198 – 4196 SL: 4177 TP1: 4218 TP2: 4245 TP3: 4329
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
1012 GOLD a new chance for mid-term buyersHello traders, Gold Entry Opportunities Analysis (Harmonic Pattern + Fundamentals) 1. Key Harmonic Pattern Structure Verification - Proportions: - XA wave (Uptrend): Magnitude of 1.359; - AB wave (Pullback): Retraces 0.794 of XA (aligns with the Bat Pattern’s AB = 0.618-0.786 of XA); - BC wave (Rebound): Extends 1.102 of AB (aligns with the Bat Pattern’s BC = 1.13-1.618 of AB); - CD wave (Decline): Currently retraces 0.904 of BC (close to the Bat Pattern’s CD = 0.886-1.13 of BC). The pattern is nearly complete. The target support for the CD wave corresponds to the 4170-4175 zone (overlapping with prior technical support). 2. Long Entry Opportunity (High-Level Consolidation + Breakout Bias) Gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase (trading within a tight range after recent gains). Entering long at the 4170-4175 support zone not only targets the short-term rebound (to 4220), but also positions for a medium-to-long-term breakout: - Entry Conditions: Price stabilizes in the 4170-4175 zone (confirmed by bullish candlestick patterns, e.g., hammer/engulfing) + RSI (current 45.13) rebounds above 50. - Stop Loss: Below 4163 (the starting point of the XA wave, a critical prior support level). - Targets: 1st target: 4220 (the high of the BC wave); 2nd target: 4250+ (driven by the Fed rate cut narrative). 3. Fundamental Resonance Current Fed rate cut expectations + the “dual buffer” from potential BOJ tightening limit deep short-term declines in gold. The harmonic support zone (4170-4175) coincides with the fundamental “pullback buying zone,” making it a high risk-reward long entry level. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FUNTRADER-Vera
XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis 📊 Market Structure (H1) Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows: • Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term. • However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept. • Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below. → The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move. 💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch 🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone • 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times. • 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS. • Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards. 🔸 Support / Buy Zone • 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone. • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated. • If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting. 🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170 Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up. BUY Conditions: • Price touches 4,184–4,170 • Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH • Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear Targets: • TP1: 4,190 • TP2: 4,200 • TP3: 4,215 • TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell) Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up: SELL Conditions: • Retest 4,243–4,244 • Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH • Must not close H1 above 4,250 Targets: • TP1: 4,235 • TP2: 4,225 • TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170 Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout. 3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261 Only activate when: • Price bounces strongly from OB Buy • Clear breakout of 4,243 zone • Structure forms HL → HH At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243. • SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs. • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent