Black FridayUp to 80% OFF

Xauusdanalysis

Gold 1H – Is This Pump Temporary or the Start of a Bigger Move?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold extended its bullish leg overnight, driven by a sharp upside displacement following a clean ChoCH on the H1 structure. However, the impulsive rally is now pushing deep into premium territory, where higher-timeframe supply begins to re-enter the picture. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of U.S. consumer confidence data and upcoming comments from several Fed officials. • A hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar intraday, making the current rally vulnerable to a pullback. • A neutral or dovish signal may allow gold to sweep higher liquidity before forming its next decisive move. Price is currently tapping into resting buy-side liquidity above 4060–4070, with the next pool sitting just beneath the 4090 supply zone, making this an ideal location for short-term reversals. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style) • Structure: H1 bias remains bullish after the major ChoCH, but price is now entering an exhaustion phase as it reaches unmitigated supply. • Premium Zone: 4090–4088 aligns with the freshest H1 supply, formed right before the displacement — a prime location for a short-term reversal. • Liquidity Sweep: The candles show aggressive wicks into higher liquidity, suggesting the market may engineer one final sweep into 4090 before rotating downward. • Discount Zone: 3974–3976 lines up with unmitigated demand and sits directly below the previous accumulation range — an ideal discount level for continuation buys if price retraces. 🔴 Sell Setup (High-Probability Reversal) • Entry: 4090 – 4088 • Stop-Loss: 4100 • Take-Profit Targets: → 4040 (first liquidity pocket) → 4005 (return to structure) → 3976 (discount zone & demand confluence) 🟢 Buy Setup (Demand Reaction Setup) • Entry: 3974 – 3976 • Stop-Loss: 3967 • Take-Profit Targets: → 4005 → 4040 → 4080 (Only valid if price performs a liquidity sweep into 3976 and prints a clean M15 ChoCH.) ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Avoid entering early inside the premium zone — wait for bearish confirmation (M5–M15 BOS). • The demand at 3974–3976 is strong but only valid once liquidity beneath the range has been fully taken. • Do not chase buys near current levels; price is overextended and has no discount alignment. • Partial profits should be secured at each liquidity point, with stops trailed using structural highs/lows. • Intraday bias remains bullish-to-neutral, but current price is at an extreme, making shorts more favorable short-term. ✅ Summary Gold is reaching into a major premium zone near 4090, where a short-term reversal becomes highly probable. The 4090–4088 supply provides a clean, high-quality SMC continuation-short setup, while the 3974–3976 demand zone remains the strongest location for reactive long positions. Stay patient — today’s movement will likely determine whether the recent pump is temporary or the beginning of a broader structural shift. FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
25
XAU/USD – Uptrend Extends, Market Prepares for Reaccumulation⏰ Timeframe: 30m 📅 Update: 11/10/2025 🔍 Market Context Gold continues to maintain its upward structure after forming a Change of Character (CHoCH) at the previous peak. Successive Break of Structure (BOS) movements have confirmed the main direction leaning towards buyers. In the early Asian session this week, the price expanded to the Premium Zone around 4,043 USD, showcasing strong bullish momentum. However, this zone could also serve as a technical pause point, where the market may need a slight correction to reaccumulate liquidity before extending the trend. 📊 Technical Structure The uptrend line has been sustainably maintained since 11/7, indicating that buying flows still control the market. Premium Zone (4,043–4,045): a short-term resistance area, where a technical pullback may occur. Order Block (4,003–4,001): a key support area, coinciding with the trendline – likely a technical rebound point if the price corrects. OB Deep (3,980): the last defense zone for the uptrend structure; if broken, the short-term bias will shift to neutral. 🎯 Market Outlook High probability scenarios: 1️⃣ Price temporarily corrects from the Premium Zone → returns to test the OB or trendline around 4,003 → reacts upwards towards the expansion zone of 4,078–4,090 USD. 2️⃣ If the price breaks through the OB area, the market may retest OB Deep at 3,980 USD before redefining the larger structure. 🧠 Analyst’s View Current price behavior reflects a reaccumulation process within the uptrend. As long as the price remains above 4,000 USD, the advantage stays with the buyers. Observing reactions at the trendline and OB area will be key to confirming the next bullish momentum during the US session. 🛡️ Risk Note The price is approaching the equilibrium zone, so avoid impulsive actions without clear confirmation on smaller timeframes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
2
XAUUSD: Bullish Breakout Targeting High-Value Liquidity ($$$)Key Technical Observations 4H / FVG (Four-Hour Fair Value Gap): The price has recently moved into or is reacting to a Fair Value Gap (FVG), a concept often used in Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. An FVG suggests an imbalance that the market often seeks to fill or utilize as support/resistance. In this context, the price moving out of this gap and continuing higher suggests it acted as a potential support or springboard for the latest move up. Liquidity Targets ($$$): The analysis has clearly marked two higher levels as targets, labeled "$$$". These typically represent liquidity pools (e.g., clustered stop losses or pending orders) that the market is likely to move toward: First Target: Approximately 4,080.00 Second Target: Approximately 4,100.00 - 4,110.00 Recent Price Action: The candles leading up to the current level are predominantly green (bullish), indicating strong buying momentum that broke past the recent consolidation highs. Conclusion & Outlook The analysis points toward a strong bullish bias. The break out of the consolidation range, potentially catalyzed by the FVG area, and the clear liquidity targets ($$$) above suggest the next move is likely to challenge the 4,080.00 and then the 4,100.00 price zones.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by fx_martin9
2
Gold Breaks Out from Accumulation, Eyes Wave 3 Expansion🔍 Market Context Gold kicked off the new week with strong upside momentum, perfectly aligning with MMFLOW’s previous outlook — calling for a Wave 3 impulse from the accumulation base around 3,940$ – 3,970$. The market’s reaction in early Asia confirmed a bullish structural shift, as gold continues to gain traction amid stable yields and cautious sentiment around the US Dollar. Macro catalysts remain balanced, but liquidity behavior suggests smart money is loading into the breakout phase, positioning early for a potential run toward the 4,100$ handle this week. If momentum sustains, this move could mark the official mid-term reversal that MMFLOW anticipated — setting up a broader recovery phase into year-end. 📊 Technical Outlook (H4 Structure) Gold continues to follow its Elliott Wave recovery path, now developing Wave (3) within the medium-term bullish cycle. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (accumulation base & breakout retest) • 🎯 Target 1: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (Wave 3 completion zone) • ⚙️ Target 2 / Extended: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 extension) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term momentum, return to neutral structure. The breakout above 4,000$ reinforces bullish sentiment, while higher highs and sustained volume through 4,072$ would confirm a new impulsive phase with room to expand further. 🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View This breakout isn’t random — it’s a smart-money-led accumulation exit after weeks of liquidity sweeps. The narrative remains consistent: “Buy the dips inside strength.” As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the probability of retesting 4,100$+ remains high, and a move toward 4,200$ before year-end cannot be ruled out. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “When the crowd hesitates, liquidity has already chosen direction.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD Analysis week 46🌐Fundamental Analysis With the US government shutdown and no official jobs report, investors are turning to other data. October saw more than 150,000 job cuts – the highest in more than 20 years. This news put the USD under pressure, helping EUR/USD rise on Thursday. On Friday, the USD recovered slightly, slowing the EUR/USD's rise. If consumer confidence falls sharply, the USD could weaken further. Conversely, if the report is positive and inflation expectations rise, the USD could recover, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. 🕯Technical Analysis EURUSD Bullish recovery on Friday with approach to the resistance zone 1.158. Currently the downtrend channel is still maintained if the buying force is strong enough to break the upper boundary of the resistance channel that the pair faces next week at 1.167. On the other side, 1.147 plays the role of the main support of the current downtrend of the pair. As long as the price channel remains, the SELL strategy will still be prioritized. Pay attention to the breakout boundary of 1.153 and 1.158. 📉Trading Signals SELL EURUSD 1.167-1.169 Stoploss 1.17200 BUY EURUSD 1.147-1.14200 Stoploss 1.14200
by TVS-Trader
Gold: 4050 brokenGold prices are showing an upward trend today, currently hovering around 4044, with the intraday high having broken through the key resistance level of 4050. This indicates that bullish momentum has strengthened in the short term, driving prices higher. After breaking through 4050, the short-term resistance levels above lie in the 4060-4080 range. The short-term support level below is around 4020, which is a previous dense trading zone and thus has a certain supporting effect, while the key support level is at 4000. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue their upward momentum, but may face some resistance around 4060. If they can effectively break through this resistance level, prices may surge toward 4080 or even higher. Conversely, if they encounter resistance and pull back around 4060, they may consolidate within the 4020-4060 range. Trading Strategy: Sell 4050 - 4055 SL 4060 TP 4035 - 4025 - 4015 Buy 4030 - 4035 SL 4020 TP 4050 - 4060 - 4070
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by KingArthur_
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above short-term descending trendline resistance and is now hovering near $4,045–$4,050, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The breakout was supported by strong buying from the $4,011–$4,017 Support Zone, where previous consolidation occurred. The Resistance Zone lies between $4,054–$4,061, which may act as the next upside target before a potential pullback. The current structure suggests a bullish continuation setup, favouring buying on dips toward the newly established support around $4,011–$4,017. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy on dip after breakout, targeting higher resistance. Entry: $4,011 – $4,017 (support retest) Stop Loss: $4,008 Take Profit 1: $4,054 Take Profit 2: $4,061 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.65 If gold sustains above $4,061, it could extend further toward $4,080–$4,100, marking a continuation of the bullish breakout sequence. 🌐 Macro Background Gold prices extended gains to around $4,050 in Monday’s Asian session, supported by renewed rate-cut expectations and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment. FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted that “Gold edges higher amid concerns over the U.S. economy as markets increase bets on Fed rate cuts.” 【FXStreet】 Labor Market Weakness: U.S. Challenger job cuts surged to 150,000 in October, the highest for that month in over two decades. The spike signals growing softness in the job market and fuels expectations that the Fed could act sooner to support growth. Rate-Cut Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing demand for the metal. Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan (UoM) Index fell to 50.3 in November (vs. 53.6 in October), a three-and-a-half-year low, reflecting economic pessimism. Shutdown Resolution: Reports from Bloomberg indicate the U.S. government shutdown could soon end as Senate Democrats support a funding deal. While this slightly eases safe-haven demand, it does not offset the dovish macro bias currently favouring gold. Overall, the weakening labour data, falling consumer confidence, and rising rate-cut bets create a constructive macro environment for gold, especially if the Fed adopts a more accommodative tone into December. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $4,054 – $4,061 Support: $4,008 – $4,020 Psychological Level: $4,050 📌 Trade Summary Gold broke above short-term resistance, with momentum shifting firmly bullish toward $4,060. The current bias favours buying dips near $4,011–$4,017, targeting the upper resistance band at $4,054–$4,061. A sustained break above this zone could open the path toward $4,080–$4,100. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
1
This week's gold price movementFor this week's gold price movement, it is expected to continue in a range-bound consolidation pattern. In terms of operation, it is recommended to adopt a "sell high and buy low" strategy within the range, with a key focus on the core consolidation interval of 3,970-4,030. Specifically, when the gold price pulls back to around 3,970, one can consider establishing a light long position, with a stop-loss set below 3,950 to control risks, and the target range set at 4,000-4,010. When the price rebounds to around 4,030, one can attempt to establish a light short position, with a stop-loss set above 4,050 to avoid greater losses from a breakthrough of the resistance level, and the target range set lower at 4,000-3,980. It should be reminded to investors that current market divergences are significant, and price fluctuations may exceed expectations. In actual operations, it is necessary to strictly control positions and avoid over-trading. Meanwhile, closely monitor changes in key news such as global macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy trends, and adjust operating strategies in a timely manner according to actual market conditions to respond to potential risks and opportunities.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by KingArthur_
Gold: Support Near 3986, Resistance Near 4030The current market narrative is driven by three key themes: Volatility in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields U.S. government shutdown risks impacting data releases and market sentiment Forward guidance from major central banks regarding their policy rate paths Whether gold can achieve a sustained breakout will primarily depend on: A persistent decline in USD and Treasury yields Increased safe-haven demand amid equity market volatility and rising macro uncertainty Continued net capital inflows into gold, particularly from passive and long-duration allocation funds If these conditions do not align, gold is likely to remain range-bound, forming a time-based consolidation pattern. If they do align, resistance near 4100 may weaken, boosting bullish conviction and paving the way for a smoother breakout. Technically, supply remains around 4030, yet the rising trendline remains intact and the 3948–3921 key support zone continues to attract buyers. Absent a major catalyst, price action is likely to remain consolidative in the near term. On both the 1H and 4H charts, moving averages are converging, signaling range compression and an imminent direction choice. Upcoming macro headlines will likely act as the catalyst for the next major move. Trading Plan: Key intraday levels: 4030 resistance / 3986 support Trade the range until a breakout occurs If price breaks out, short-term momentum trades may be considered — but with disciplined targets Conservative traders may wait for a pullback entry Medium- to long-term investors can continue accumulating on dips, waiting for the market confirmation
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (10/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)1. Market Overview Gold opens the Asian session consolidating near $4,000–$4,003, after the US session’s liquidity sweeps on both sides of the range. Price remains trapped between $3,985 support and $4,016 resistance, showing a symmetrical compression pattern. The market sentiment is currently neutral, awaiting a breakout from this coil — which will likely set the tone for the London continuation. ⸻ 2. Technical Breakdown 🔹 Daily (D1): Price is stabilizing above the 50EMA with RSI around 51 — neutral but slightly leaning bullish. A daily close above $4,016 would reestablish bullish continuation toward $4,036–$4,050, while a drop below $3,975 could shift momentum back to bearish. 🔹 H1: Gold is respecting the descending trendline from $4,027, while creating a higher-low structure from $3,985. The 200EMA near $4,006–$4,010 acts as key intraday resistance, currently rejecting buyers. EMAs are converging, signaling volatility buildup before expansion. 🔹 15M–5M: Short-term CHoCH confirmed after liquidity sweep at $3,985, but momentum faded below $4,010. RSI sits around 48–50 and MACD shows flattening histogram — both suggesting indecision ahead of the Asian liquidity phase. ⸻ 3. Fibonacci Analysis (Last Swing 3,984 → 4,027) • 38.2% = $4,011 • 50.0% = $4,006 • 61.8% = $4,001 🎯 Golden Zone: $4,011 – $4,001 (Potential buy reaction area on retest) ⸻ 4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios 📈 BUY SCENARIO (Primary Bias) • Entry Zone: $4,006 – $4,001 (Golden Zone)** • Targets: $4,016 → $4,027 → $4,036 • Stop Loss: Below $3,992 • Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle or CHoCH on 5M from Golden Zone. • Confluence: Support trendline + 61.8% Fib + EMA cluster + RSI recovery from 40–45. 📉 SELL SCENARIO (Countertrend) • Entry Zone: $4,010 – $4,016 (Supply + 200EMA + trendline resistance)** • Targets: $4,000 → $3,990 → $3,975 • Stop Loss: Above $4,020 • Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle with RSI divergence (60–65 range). • Confluence: Strong horizontal supply + descending resistance + MACD bearish cross. 💥 BREAKOUT SETUP • Bullish Break: Close above $4,016 → Retest $4,010 → Targets $4,027 → $4,036 → $4,050. • Bearish Break: Close below $3,985 → Retest $3,990 → Targets $3,976 → $3,960. ⸻ 5. Fundamental Watch • Asia session: Low volatility expected before London liquidity expansion. • DXY near 106.0 — holding steady, which could limit upside momentum until London. • No major macro data during Asia; technical levels will dominate. ⸻ 6. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,010 / 4,016 / 4,027 / 4,036 Support: 4,001 / 3,992 / 3,985 / 3,975 Golden Zone: 4,011 – 4,001 Breakout Triggers: >4,016 (Bullish) | <3,985 (Bearish) ⸻ 7. Analyst Summary Gold continues to accumulate liquidity within a symmetrical range, trapped between 200EMA resistance and ascending support. A breakout above $4,016 could trigger bullish continuation toward $4,036–$4,050, while a rejection here would likely send price back to $3,992–$3,975 before a new leg forms. ⸻ 8. Final Bias Summary 📊 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above $3,985; bearish only below $3,975. 🎯 Focus: Monitor reaction at $4,006–$4,010 (EMA cluster) and watch for breakout confirmation beyond $4,016. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🥇 GOLD – ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – WEEKLY PERFORMANCE (03/11/2025 TO 07/11/2025) 🔥 Massive week for PREMIUM 3.0 — consistent GOLD setups, BTC profits, and double LIVE session wins! ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 MONDAY 03/11/2025 🟢 BUY +120 PIPS 🟢 BUY +30 PIPS 🔻 SELL +90 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY LIMIT +200 PIPS 🔻 SELL +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 💰 GOLD TOTAL: +600 PIPS --- 📅 TUESDAY 04/11/2025 🔻 SELL +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY LIMIT +70 PIPS 🔻 SELL +30 PIPS 🟢 BUY +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY +20 PIPS 🔻 SELL +240 PIPS 🎯 LIVE TRADING SESSION 🔻 SELL +20 PIPS 🔻 SELL +20 PIPS 🔻 SELL +170 PIPS 💰 GOLD TOTAL: +400 PIPS --- 📅 WEDNESDAY 05/11/2025 🔻 SELL +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY LIMIT +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY LIMIT +60 PIPS 🔻 SELL +60 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY +260 PIPS 🔻 SELL +80 PIPS 🟢 BUY +110 PIPS 💎 BTC/USD TRADE: SELL +900 PIPS 💰 TOTAL DAILY GAIN: +1,570 PIPS --- 📅 THURSDAY 06/11/2025 🟢 BUY (Swing) +610 PIPS (from 05/11) 🔻 SELL +40 PIPS 🔻 SELL LIMIT +70 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY +150 PIPS 🟢 BUY LIMIT +20 PIPS 🟢 BUY +110 PIPS 🔻 SELL +60 PIPS ❌ BUY -20 PIPS (SL) 🟢 BUY +100 PIPS 🎯 LIVE SESSION: BUY +120 PIPS | BUY +50 PIPS 💰 GOLD TOTAL: +1,350 PIPS --- 📅 FRIDAY 07/11/2025 🔻 SELL +60 PIPS 🟢 BUY +40 PIPS 🟢 BUY +90 PIPS ❌ BUY -40 PIPS (SL) 🟢 BUY +120 PIPS 🎯 LIVE SESSION: BUY +100 PIPS | BUY +125 PIPS | BUY +150 PIPS 💰 GOLD TOTAL: +645 PIPS 💎 BTC BONUS TRADES (Weekend): SAT 08/11 → SELL +400 PIPS SUN 09/11 → BUY +1,100 PIPS --- 📊 WEEKLY SUMMARY 🥇 GOLD TOTAL GAIN: +3,315 PIPS 💎 BTC/USD TOTAL GAIN: +2,400 PIPS 🚀 OVERALL TOTAL: +5,715 PIPS ✅ 48 Signals → 46 Wins | 2 SL 📈 Winning Rate: 96% ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Every setup, every session — verified precision and consistency! Join ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 and level up your trading game. — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by ELDORADOFX
A Detailed Report on the Gold Market Until the End of December A Detailed Report on the Gold Market Until the End of December 2025 Fundamental Analysis (Fundamental Analysis) Gold witnessed a record surge during 2025 that made it one of the best-performing assets, with its price exceeding $4,000 per ounce and delivering roughly 50% annual gains through October. This jump is attributed to a mix of economic and political factors that strengthened the appeal of the precious metal as a safe haven. Below are the most prominent fundamental factors affecting the gold market in the current period (November – December 2025): Federal Reserve policy and rate decisions : After a long tightening cycle during 2022–2024, the Federal Reserve reached peak interest rates and began shifting toward easing in late 2025. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming December meeting, following a similar cut in late October. Although the Fed cut rates in October, Jerome Powell’s tone was hawkish, which limited the positive effects of the cut and gave the dollar a temporary boost. In general, falling interest rates (and a lower real yield) support gold since it is a non-yielding asset, while higher rates weigh on it. For this reason, expectations for the start of a rate-cut cycle pushed gold higher this year, whereas any hawkish signals or rate hikes could weaken the metal’s bullish momentum. Economic data (inflation, growth, unemployment) : U.S. inflation slowed to about 3% in the fall of 2025—slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Although it has moderated compared with the 2022 peak, inflation remains above target, keeping the focus on interest-rate policy. The labor market shows unemployment near 4% with a slight uptick during 2025, indicating moderate economic activity. Economic growth faced pressures due to prior monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainty, prompting analysts to talk about mild stagflation risks. The latest inflation and employment data will play an important role in guiding Fed expectations, and thus gold’s movement through the remainder of the year. Geopolitical tensions and global conflicts : Rising geopolitical tensions were a key driver pushing gold prices higher. The ongoing war in Ukraine and instability in parts of the Middle East reinforced safe-haven demand. But the most notable development came on the U.S.–China front: U.S. President Donald Trump reignited the trade war in October by announcing 100% tariffs on China, sparking a wave of concern that propelled gold above $4,000 for the first time. This escalation drove investors strongly into gold and accelerated its climb. Later, in late October, there was a surprising breakthrough with the announcement of a trade truce between Washington and Beijing, including a one-year deal on rare earths, a reduction in some tariffs, and increased purchases of U.S. soybeans. This de-escalation trimmed geopolitical/trade fears and softened safe-haven demand for gold toward the end of the month. Additionally, other political factors—such as the U.S. government shutdown that occurred in early October—affected markets; as the shutdown entered its seventh day, economic uncertainty increased, adding another factor that sped up gold’s rise. On the other hand, Europe saw political tensions such as a government crisis in France, which contributed slightly to higher gold demand. In short, any renewed escalation—whether war, trade disputes, or political crises—would support gold, while any de-escalation or diplomatic solutions could ease the bullish momentum. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) : Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar. In 2025, the dollar came under pressure and fell by about 10% against major currencies, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and boosting demand. For example, when Trump warned of escalating the trade war in October, the dollar fell by about 0.5% immediately, supporting gold’s climb to new highs. But late in the month, with signs of a trade agreement and the Fed’s hawkish tone, the dollar rebounded, weighing on gold. The dollar’s recent strength—though temporary—drove gold to correct below $4,000 for a time. Overall, a weaker dollar lifts gold and the opposite is true; therefore the DXY’s path in the coming weeks—whether it continues to decline or rebounds supported by monetary policy—will be a decisive factor for gold’s movement. Equity and bond markets : Gold’s relationships with stocks and bonds in 2025 were shaped by economic uncertainty. During risk-off periods and equity market declines (such as on days of trade escalation), gold rose as investors rotated into safe havens. Conversely, with positive news and a return of risk appetite, we saw Wall Street rally and safe-haven demand for gold ease. For example, news of the trade truce and positive earnings from tech firms pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher in late October, coinciding with gold falling about 8% from its peak. U.S. bond yields had a dual effect: rising yields (from hawkish Fed expectations or higher inflation) increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and pressure its price. This occurred partly during the recent correction as Treasury yields reached relatively high levels, making bonds more attractive versus gold. By contrast, falling yields on expectations of rate cuts support gold—and we saw this for most of 2025 as the Fed kept rates elevated and then hinted at cuts, which lowered real yields and sent gold sharply higher. In short, any disruption in stocks or a drop in yields will be positive for gold, while persistent gains in stocks or yields may cap its upside temporarily. Demand from central banks and institutions : Global central banks have been buying gold at historic levels from 2022 through 2025 as part of a strategy to diversify reserves away from the dollar. They have been purchasing more than 1,000 tons of gold annually—double the previous decade’s average—to hedge against sanctions and inflation and reduce reliance on dollar assets. In 2025, this strong pace continued, providing structural support for the gold market (especially with record purchases from countries such as China, Kazakhstan, and Poland). Gold-backed ETFs likewise saw massive inflows from Western investors this year, with inflows exceeding $64 billion through Q3 2025—a record above the pandemic peak. This institutional investment demand reinforced the uptrend and helped gold break past prior price forecasts. Analysts, however, warn that a resolution of major conflicts (such as a final settlement to the war in Ukraine or in the Middle East) could reduce the hedging motives of central banks and investors. For now, official and investment demand remains a structural support for the market in the medium term. Other factors : U.S. public debt has risen to unprecedented levels ($36 trillion), raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, weakening long-term confidence in the dollar, and pushing some investors toward gold as a hedge. We also saw debates over the Fed’s independence and political pressures on it—especially under a new administration—which added to the motivations to hold gold as a hedge against any unconventional monetary policies. These structural factors (huge debts, erosion of confidence in the dollar, political risks) strengthened the notion of a re-evaluation of gold in the global financial system and made the yellow metal a focal point of financial debate in 2025 after decades of relative neglect. Financial institutions’ forecasts for gold prices (November – December 2025) Despite gold reaching historic levels this year, most houses remain cautiously optimistic about its performance for the rest of 2025. The current consensus points to gold trading between $3,800 and $4,000 on average during November and December. Forecasts also see the possibility of temporary rallies above $4,100 if the pace of U.S. rate cuts accelerates or if geopolitical conditions worsen again. Conversely, any political calm and continued monetary hawkishness may keep gold below $4,000 and perhaps push it toward the key $3,800 support. The main bank and institutional forecasts are as follows: Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs remains the most bullish bank on gold. It raised its medium-term price forecast and expects gold to reach around $4,900 by December 2026. In the near term, Goldman sees scenarios in which gold could reach $5,000 if the Fed’s independence comes under pressure and investors shift just 1% of the U.S. bond market ($57 trillion) into gold. For the short term (end-2025), Goldman and other analysts estimate a range between the high $3,000s and low $4,000s, with potential upside if economic or political conditions deteriorate unexpectedly. J.P. Morgan: J.P. Morgan adopted a strongly positive view of gold in 2025, considering it a high-conviction investment this year. It expects the uptrend to continue, supported by the onset of a U.S. rate-cut cycle. In its latest reports (October 2025), it maintained a long-term bullish view, expecting gold to average about $5,055 by Q4 2026. This aligns with its view that the move above $4,000 resulted from an economic cycle that will last for years. In the nearer term, the average of banks’ forecasts at the start of the year for 2025 quarters was about $3,400–$3,700, which gold has already exceeded. J.P. Morgan did not issue a specific number for end-2025 in its latest report, but it emphasized ongoing supportive factors (investor and central-bank demand) and favored further upside as the Fed begins easing policy. Citi and HSBC: Banks such as HSBC and Citigroup took a more cautious approach after the recent jump. HSBC raised its average 2025 gold price forecast by only about $100 to $3,455 per ounce, implying prices remain near current levels on average (this figure is well below the current spot price above $4,000 because it’s an annual average). HSBC also sees the possibility of gold reaching $5,000 in 2026 if supportive factors persist. Citigroup, for its part, indicated that it trimmed its short-term forecasts slightly after gold rose above $4,300 and then declined, viewing part of the rally as exaggerated and temporary amid geopolitical panic. Overall, these institutions described the recent pullback below $4,000 as a healthy correction after a rapid rise, advising investors to act cautiously (lighten positions to lock in profits or hedge) while being ready to buy again at lower levels. Other banks: Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,000 (from $3,700 previously) in light of strong official demand and tight recycled supply. Standard Chartered expects the average price to be $4,488 in 2026 with momentum continuing, supported structurally. Bank of America and UBS, among others, became more positive than they were at the start of 2025, with medium-term forecasts clustered between $4,200–$4,300 by 2026. Overall, the broad consensus is that gold will hold strong levels for the rest of this year, with a likely trading range between $3,800–$4,300—unless exceptional events push it outside this range. Out-of-consensus scenarios include negative inflation surprises or major geopolitical crises that could drive it toward testing $4,500 soon, or, conversely, strong growth data or major conflict resolutions that could pull it down toward $3,600–$3,700. But most analysts lean toward gold being relatively stable around current levels with a slight upward bias through the end of 2025. Technical Analysis (Technical Analysis) On the technical front, gold’s movement has been strongly bullish in recent months, interspersed with short, sharp corrections. Below we review price action and trend across several time frames—from the long frame (6 months) down to 5 minutes—with key support and resistance levels for each, along with near-term and year-end scenarios. 6-Month frame (semiannual): The semiannual chart (last 6 months) shows a strong, sustained uptrend for gold. During this period, price advanced about +21% (from ~$3,300 to >$4,000), posting a new all-time high around $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. This time frame indicates that gold has been forming successive higher lows and higher highs since mid-2025, confirming a long-term uptrend. Indicators on this horizon (such as long-term moving averages) support the continuation of the broader uptrend, with price still above most major averages. The most important supports on the semiannual frame are around $3,800–$3,830 (the latest main correction band), then $3,600 in case of a deeper decline. These levels are potential rebound zones as prior peaks turned into support. The clear resistance on this frame is the recent ATH at $4,381; a break above it would suggest the uptrend is continuing toward new targets, possibly psychological handles like $4,500 and above. Overall, the semiannual trend remains bullish unless price breaks below the $3,600–$3,800 support, which could signal a shift in the bullish structure. 3-Month frame (quarterly): Over the last 3 months, gold continued higher but at a slower pace as volatility increased. It opened near $3,860 three months ago, climbed to the $4,381 high, then pulled back to close near $4,000 at the start of November. This suggests the net quarterly gain was limited (~3.7%) due to the recent correction that erased part of the advance. On this frame, gold entered a corrective/sideways phase after its peak, forming a range between roughly $3,820 (quarterly support) and $4,100 (nearby quarterly resistance) in recent weeks. The nearest support on the quarterly chart is $3,820–$3,830 (roughly the October low), followed by $3,700–$3,750 if the correction deepens. On the other hand, immediate resistance sits around $4,070–$4,100 (a level that saw a bounce during the latest decline). A clear break above $4,100 could open the way to re-test the ATH at $4,380. The trend on this frame is broadly bullish but with weakened momentum lately. 1-Month frame (monthly): Looking at the monthly chart (monthly candles), we can see more detail for October and early November 2025. October’s candle was striking: it opened around $3,500–$3,600, then surged to the $4,380 high before closing near $4,000. This monthly candle formed a pattern akin to a “Shooting Star” with a long upper shadow, reflecting selling pressure in the second half of the month. Key monthly support lies around $3,800, then $3,600 as a lower support. Monthly resistance is naturally the $4,380 high. 1-Week frame (weekly): The weekly chart highlights movement in recent weeks. After a series of consecutive weekly gains, we saw a weekly reversal starting from the third week of October. Gold posted losses for two consecutive weeks by the end of October. The bearish candles indicate that price entered a short-term correction. The nearest important weekly support is $3,880 (last week’s low), followed by $3,800 as a strong support to watch, while weekly resistance is currently around $4,100–$4,110. Summary of short-term technicals: Daily (1D): The daily chart reveals recent moves in detail. After hitting the $4,381 peak, gold entered a short-term downtrend and bottomed near $3,997. Currently, price is trying to hold above the $4,000 level. The nearest daily support is $3,960–$3,980, then the stronger support around $3,900. Daily resistance is at $4,050–$4,070. The short-term trend is sideways with a slight bullish tilt. 4-Hour (4H): Price has formed a small double bottom around the $3,950–$3,980 area. Gold is currently moving in a tight sideways range between that support and the $4,050–$4,080 near-term resistance. The 4H trend is consolidation with a bullish bias. 1-Hour (1H): The hourly chart shows a series of minor rising highs and lows, indicating gradual recovery. Very close support is $4,000, then $3,980. Hourly resistance is $4,060, then $4,100. The current move is a slight corrective uptrend (minor uptrend), but relatively weak. Short frames (30, 15, 5 minutes): On these intervals, gold is oscillating in a defined, narrow range, often between $4,000 and $4,050, awaiting a catalyst to break the current choppiness. The trend on these frames is broadly neutral. Summary table – support/resistance levels and trend by time frame /* Summary table — support/resistance levels and trend by time frame +------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+ | Time Frame | Current Trend | Nearest Support | Nearest Resistance | +------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+ | 6 months (semiannual) | Strong uptrend (long-term trend) | $3,800-$3,830 (major) / $3,600 (next) | $4,380 (ATH) / $4,500 (psych.) | | 3 months (quarterly) | Broadly bullish; slowing momentum | $3,820 (correction low) / $3,700 (lower) | $4,070-$4,100 (immediate) / $4,380 (ATH) | | 1 month (monthly) | Bullish; signs of exhaustion | $3,800 (strong) / $3,600 (lower) | $4,380 (Oct high) / $4,500 (target if break) | | 1 week (weekly) | Up overall; corrective now | $3,880 (last weekly low) / $3,800 (pivot) | $4,100 (weekly) / $4,380 (major/ATH) | | 1 day (daily) | Choppy; slight bullish bias | $3,960 (daily) / $3,900 (strong) | $4,070 (daily) / $4,150 (higher) | | 4 hours (4H) | Sideways; bullish tilt | $3,950 (intraday) / $3,900 (secondary) | $4,050 (immediate) / $4,120 (next) | +------------------------+--------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+----------------------------------------------+ */ Expected weekly trend and end-2025 scenario Weekly scenario (first week of November): Gold will likely see steady performance with a chance of a slight rise. After its recent decline, the yellow metal appears to be in a phase of regrouping strength. The most likely outcome is that gold will fluctuate within a defined range, perhaps between $3,900 as support and $4,100 as resistance, with attempts to break higher. The nearer scenario is range-bound trade with a bullish tilt. End-2025 scenario: As we approach the end of December 2025, expectations vary. The most likely scenario is that gold remains within a relatively wide range of about $3,800 to $4,400 through the end of December, with an overall bias toward moderate gains. We may see gold attempt to re-test its all-time high at $4,380 during November or December if strong catalysts emerge. A slide below $3,800 would mean the market is entering a deeper correction. Therefore, it is more likely that gold stays above $3,800. A realistic end-2025 outcome could be a price near $4,100–$4,200 per ounce. In sum, the overall trend through the end of 2025 leans toward moderate upside with the possibility of a record annual gain for gold, but within a volatile trading framework. Relationship with other markets and channels of mutual influence There are important correlations between gold and several other markets (currencies, interest rates, equities) that play a role in its price action. Details follow: Gold’s relationship with the U.S. dollar (USD & DXY): Historically, gold is inversely correlated with the strength of the U.S. dollar. In 2025, this correlation was clear; the roughly 10% weakening of the dollar over the year was one of the reasons for gold’s strong rise. Any significant dollar rally could cap gold’s advance, while continued dollar weakness or further declines would create a favorable environment for gold to resume rising. Gold’s relationship with U.S. interest rates and bond yields: The level of real interest rates is among the most important determinants of gold’s price. When Treasury yields rise, holding gold becomes less attractive. Conversely, rate cuts and falling yields strongly support gold. Gold’s direction in the coming months will be inversely linked to the path of interest rates. Gold’s relationship with equities (S&P 500 and Nasdaq): Gold is inversely related to equities in a risk-appetite context. During market turmoil and falling stocks, demand for gold as a hedge increases, pushing its price higher. This pattern appeared several times in 2025. Through the end of 2025, if equities remain strong, gold may struggle to surpass its recent highs, while any pullback in stocks (even a moderate one) will support gold. Conclusion The gold market in the final months of 2025 remains in investors’ sights given its large gains and the surrounding uncertainties. The fundamental analysis points to a mix of supportive drivers (monetary easing, political risks, investment demand) and opposing ones (profit-taking, potential dollar strength). Technical analysis confirms that the broader trend is up, but the market is currently in a phase of correction and consolidation. A breakout from the current range is likely to be decided by upcoming Fed decisions and developments in trade and geopolitics. Investors are advised to monitor these factors closely and remain flexible, as gold continues to be a strategic hedge in an unstable global environment. Sources Official news and reports (Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA) in addition to analyses from financial agencies such as Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing, Forex Factory, and others were relied upon to ensure the accuracy of the information and forecasts above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jewelllc
Why You Should NOT Trade XAUUSD Right Now (The CRT Discipline)🛑 Why You Should NOT Trade XAUUSD Right Now (The CRT Discipline) 1. Market is in an Accumulation Range The chart clearly shows price boxed between the Range High at 4,046.27 and the Range Low at 3,886.61 This is a classic Accumulation/Range phase. According to CRT principles, markets must cycle, and this sideways action means smart money is still building positions. Trading inside this box is essentially gambling because the market's current function is to create confusion and chop up impatient retail traders. You lack the directional certainty needed for a high-probability trade. 2. Missing the Expansion Fuel High-probability CRT setups like Model #1 or Candle 3 rely entirely on having fuel in the market to drive the expansion. This fuel is generated by the Turtle Soup—the running of stops outside a clear range. Since price is consolidating inside the defined range, the essential liquidity hunt has not yet occurred. Entering now means betting against the market's need to seek out that liquidity at the Range High or Range Low first, making the potential for a whipsaw loss extremely high. 3. The CRT Candle Rule: Wait for Candle 3 This current sideways movement is either the quiet Accumulation (Candle 1) or the tricky start of Manipulation (Candle 2). The CRT framework provides a crucial warning to all beginners: Trade ONLY Candle 3 (Distribution). Candle 3 is the clear, strong directional movement where the big money is made. Your primary job right now is to exercise discipline, avoid the traps of Candle 2, and patiently wait for price to break the range and print the clean, profitable Candle 3 payoff. Until that expansion happens, your best move is no move Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by MrYounity
XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – Potential Bearish Reversal Below Gold is currently trading near $4,001, consolidating just below a key resistance zone between $4,015 – $4,025. Price action has formed a rising wedge pattern, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The chart indicates that sellers could regain control if the price fails to break above the resistance level. A potential fakeout or retest of the upper resistance might occur before a sharp bearish move. If bearish pressure confirms below $3,995, the next target lies around $3,965, aligning with the marked target zone and prior support. Key levels to watch: Resistance: $4,015 – $4,025 Support: $3,995 / $3,965 (target zone) Bias: Bearish below resistance; potential short setup after rejection confirmatio EURONEXT:BE8Z2025 EURONEXT:BXF1! EURONEXT:CU6X2025 EURONEXT:ES6X2025 EURONEXT:AB6X2025 EURONEXT:AB7X2025 EURONEXT:AB8Z2025 EURONEXT:AG8Z2025 EURONEXT:AV6X2025 EURONEXT:AV8Z2025 EURONEXT:BL6X2025 EURONEXT:BL6X2025
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MR_NARCOS_ANALYSIS
XAUUSD – Weekly Trade Plan(Nov 10 → Nov 14, 2025) Bias: Neutral–Bullish, focusing on reaction zones between key supply and demand levels. 🌐 MARKET CONTEXT Overview: After a strong rally earlier in Q4, Gold is now consolidating around the $4,000 zone, reflecting the tug-of-war between Fed rate-cut expectations and upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI). Sentiment: Current sentiment leans slightly risk-off, as U.S. yields remain elevated, but safe-haven demand for Gold persists. Expectations: The market is likely to remain range-bound / corrective until a clear macro catalyst appears. Main Bias: Prioritize selling from supply zones and buying from demand zones, but always wait for structural confirmation (CHoCH / BOS) before entering. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + Liquidity Structure) Structure: The market is moving in a sideways H4 range between 3,930 and 4,130. Liquidity focus: Above 4,130: Cluster of buy-side liquidity — potential for stop-hunt sweeps. Below 3,930: Sell-side liquidity, untested low area. Pattern outlook: The 4,046–4,052 area has been tested twice, forming a potential mini-distribution zone. The 3,928–3,930 demand zone remains untested — a possible liquidity sweep before rebound. SMC Logic: A fake BOS / sweep above 4,130 could trigger a strong short setup. A sweep below 3,930 + CHoCH bullish could confirm a long setup. 🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES Price Zone Type Description 4,130–4,128 🔻 SELL Zone #1 Major D1 supply zone & liquidity cluster above the range 4,046–4,044 🔻 SELL Zone #2 OB + POC + liquidity trap near previous highs 3,930–3,928 🟩 BUY Zone #1 H4 demand zone + SSL sweep potential 3,922 ⚠️ Stop Threshold Below this, short-term bullish bias invalidated 4,052 / 4,136 🧱 Stoploss Levels Corresponding stops for each sell setup ⚙️ TRADE SETUPS ✅ SELL SCENARIO 1 – HIGH SUPPLY (SWEEP ABOVE RANGE) Entry: 4,130 – 4,128 Stoploss: 4,136 TP1: 4,046 TP2: 3,995 TP3: 3,930 Logic: Liquidity sweep above the range high, targeting distribution reaction from major supply. ✅ SELL SCENARIO 2 – RANGE SUPPLY REJECTION Entry: 4,046 – 4,044 Stoploss: 4,052 TP1: 4,000 TP2: 3,930 TP3: 3,928 Logic: OB + VAL + liquidity confluence at top of range; wait for M5 CHoCH confirmation before entering. ✅ BUY SCENARIO – MAIN STRUCTURAL SUPPORT SWEEP Entry: 3,930 – 3,928 Stoploss: 3,922 TP1: 3,995 TP2: 4,044 TP3: 4,128 (trail) Logic: Sweep of SSL below previous low → bullish CHoCH confirmation → ideal Smart Money demand entry. 🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN Focus on London session for potential buy setups near 3,930–3,928. Watch New York session for sell setups at 4,046–4,128, especially if price sweeps liquidity first. Avoid entering during major CPI / PPI news releases. Use M5–M15 confirmations (CHoCH, FVG fill) before execution. Avoid overtrading — wait for clear structural confirmation to reduce stop-hunt risk. 🏁 CONCLUSION Gold continues to range between 3,930 ↔ 4,130, showing no clear breakout yet. Primary setups: Sell from 4,046–4,128, with stops at 4,052 / 4,136. Buy from 3,930–3,928, with stop at 3,922. Strategy: Trade both ends of the range with structure confirmation; avoid trading inside equilibrium. For this week, focus on buy-the-dip below 3,930 and sell-the-rally between 4,046–4,130.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alicee_Trader
2
Ending US G. shutdown could bring GOLD to daily support?US government shutdown has slowed longer term trend on XAUUSD with 2 weeks of bearish move finally formed an weekly inside bar which is the lowest volatity in the last 12 weeks! however, as there is bearish rejection, with potential ending of shut down could lead GOLD to drop again to the daily support to 3885.00 or lower? as 3 weeks price action is showing a continued bearish move, any break from the weekly high, price may bring the price back below the weekly low which potentailly create a lowertimeframe bearish trend. Therefore, weekly high is to watch for possible rejection, once price rejects, once down trend coinfirms, we will be looking for sell set up to daily support level.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ForexWizard01
Gold stood above the 4000 level againNon-Farm Payrolls data was once again suspended on Friday, and the market traded in a range-bound manner throughout the day. It hit a high around 4027 and a low around 3975, which aligned with the range I had indicated. Judging from the closing price, gold stood above the 4000 level again. Bulls should continue to focus on the 4040-4055 zone, as the battle for this level will remain a key focus next week. If the rebound fails to break through this range, we can still enter short positions. Recently, I have repeatedly provided the strategy of shorting in the 4010-4020 range, and all have been verified by the market. Let’s wait and see how the market develops next week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by KingArthur_
XAUUSD (Gold) H1 Chart Analysis: Short-Term Bearish SetupKey Observations & Market Structure Break of Structure (BOS): An upward Break of Structure (BOS) occurred recently around the $4,020 level, indicating a shift toward a bullish trend on this timeframe. The high at $4,020 marked the top of the current range. Failed Highs (Potential Manipulation): The price made two subsequent attempts (labeled 'X' and another subsequent high) to break the BOS high, but both failed and resulted in wicks above the previous highs. This pattern often suggests liquidity grabbing or a sweep of buy-side liquidity (BSL) above the previous swing high before a move in the opposite direction. Current Price Action: The current candle shows a sharp rejection and a move lower from the high, as indicated by the downward arrow. Swing Low Liquidity (SSL): A significant Swing Low Liquidity (SSL) level has been created around $3,965, which is likely a target for a short-term bearish move as sell stops accumulate below it. Fair Value Gap (FVG) / 1H Order Block: Below the SSL target, there is a clear 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or a potential Order Block zone identified between approximately $3,950 and $3,955. This area represents a potential support zone where smart money may look to enter long positions, expecting the price to fill the inefficiency (FVG) or react to the order block before continuing the overall bullish move.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
LiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of NovemberLiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of November Accumulation range 4047–3928, prioritize buying on breakout – watch for short at 4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Overview: After the adjustment from the historical peak, gold is forming a bottom – accumulating in the price range of 4047–3928. The D1 structure still leans towards a medium-term uptrend if the price holds above 3928; the ~4200 area coinciding with a wide FVG + Fib 0.382 is a “liquidity pool” where strong reactions are likely. Macro Summary Hedge funds against public debt/deficit risks and net buying demand from some central banks/Asian blocs support the long-term trend. The expectation of a cooling interest rate path in 2026 helps reduce pressure on gold, but pullbacks may still occur before major technical milestones. Technical Analysis (D1 Frame – Trendline | S/R | Volume zone | Fibonacci) Accumulation Range: 4047 (top of the box) ↔️ 3928 (bottom of the box). D1 closing above 4047 confirms an upper range expansion; breaking 3928 triggers a deeper drop to lower Fib levels. Fibonacci of the latest upward wave: Price is oscillating around 0.618 → tendency to form a base. Deeper area if the base breaks: 0.5 ~ 3850 and 0.382 ~ 3710. Key Resistance: 4090–4120 (mid-box area), ~4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) – expected large liquidity/short-term reversal area. Important Support: 3990–4010 (psychological/trading buffer level), 3928 (lower range boundary – breakout point). Trendline: The medium-term uptrend remains if corrections do not close below 3928. Trading Scenario for the New Week Scenario 1 – Buy on trend when breaking the upper range Condition: D1 closes above 4047, retest holds firm at 4038–4047. Entry: 4048–4055 SL: 4018 TP: 4090 → 4120 → 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Management: Take partial profit at 4090/4120, move SL to breakeven when reaching +1R. Scenario 1b – Buy at the bottom of the box (fade range) Entry: 3935–3945 (when there is a clear rejection candle/tail at 3928–3945) SL: 3895 TP: 3995–4010 → 4040–4047 Note: If D1 closes below 3928, cancel the plan and switch bias to the bearish scenario. Scenario 2 – Short reaction at the liquidity area 4200 Entry: 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) when a clear rejection appears on D1/H4 SL: 4225 TP: 4120 → 4047 → 4010 (extended target: 3850 if there is a breakdown signal) Note: Counter-trend order; reduce volume, exit quickly if D1 closes above 4205. Risk & Invalidation The medium-term bullish bias remains valid as long as D1 does not close below 3928. D1 closing below 3928 paves the way to 3850 (Fib 0.5), even 3710 (Fib 0.382). Strong news (CPI, employment, central bank speeches) may disrupt signals; wait for candle closure according to the chosen frame. Summary Gold is “spring-loaded” within 4047–3928. Priority plan: Buy on breakout–hold 4047 to target 4090–4120 and test ~4200; simultaneously watch for short reactions at 4200. If breaking 3928, switch scenario to bearish towards 3850 → 3710.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP...💛 XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP DECLINE 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold just wrapped up the week with a candle closing at the 4001 zone, after a slight increase and then holding steady within the upward channel on the H4 frame. The current sideways movement is causing many traders difficulty in finding short-term entry points. However, the 4090 zone still has an unfilled liquidity gap (FVG), which coincides with the upper edge of the price channel. This could be the next short-term target before the market adjusts for a deeper decline. From my perspective, gold might rise another step to sweep the liquidity in the upper region, then adjust back to the 3785 area – a crucial Fibonacci Retracement zone, where a strong reaction from buyers is highly likely. 💹 2. Technical Analysis 📈 The price structure is still maintaining an upward trend within the H4 price channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous. 🟣 The 4090–4102 zone is an untested liquidity area, located at the channel peak – a high chance of a downward reaction. 🔹 Potential Buy zone around 3785–3789 coincides with Fibonacci 0.618 and a strong historical support area. 💫 Main Scenario: Price may rise to test the upper liquidity zone, then adjust down to the Buy Zone before forming a larger upward momentum. 🎯 3. Trading Plan Reference 💢 SELL Scenario (short-term) Entry: 4098–4102 ｜ SL: 4112 TP: 4078 – 4025 – 3998 – 3920 – 3875 – 3785 💖 BUY Scenario (long-term strategy) Entry: 3785–3789 ｜ SL: 3777 TP: 3810 – 3865 – 3925 – 3988 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Prioritize short-term Sell if price reacts strongly at the 4090–4100 zone. Long-term Buy only if price adjusts deeply to the 3785–3790 zone. Avoid emotional trading – this is a liquidity accumulation phase before a major move. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is on the right path of accumulation before forming a big wave 💛 Be patient and observe reactions at the two critical zones 4090 and 3785, as these could be the pivot points for the upcoming week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAU/USD – Retest Before Takeoff📊 Market Structure After several days of fluctuating within a narrow range, gold has finally broken through the main descending trendline extending from the peak of 4,108 USD. Buyers are currently controlling the short-term structure by continuously creating BoS (Break of Structure) in the price range of 3,965 – 3,980 USD. The Order Block 3,970 – 3,975 USD area has become an important dynamic support zone , converging with the newly formed trendline. If the price continues to hold above this area, there is a high possibility of a light retest to absorb liquidity before breaking out to higher resistance zones. Above, the Resistance 4,028 USD zone is the first barrier to overcome to confirm the medium-term uptrend, while the Liquidity Zone around 4,070 – 4,080 USD is the extended target of the breakout. 💎 Key Technical Zones • Order Block (Support): 3,970 – 3,975 USD → potential retest area. • Resistance Zone: 4,028 USD → first profit-taking point for buyers. • Liquidity Zone: 4,070 – 4,080 USD → extended target if resistance is successfully broken. 🎯 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ BUY Scenario – Retest OB: If the price adjusts to the 3,970 – 3,975 USD area and a confirming candle signal appears (bullish rejection / engulfing): • Entry: 3,972 – 3,975 • SL: 3,960 • TP1: 4,015 • TP2: 4,028 • TP3: 4,070 → Prioritize trading with the trend after the uptrend structure is confirmed. 2️⃣ SELL Scenario – Reaction at Resistance: If the price hits the 4,028 – 4,070 USD area and there is a strong reversal signal: • Entry: 4,045 • SL: 4,065 • TP1: 4,015 • TP2: 3,985 → Short-term scalp, only activate if a clear rejection signal appears. 🧠 Vincent’s View Gold is showing signs of transitioning from accumulation to range expansion . Breaking the descending trendline is the first signal for a new upward move, as long as the OB 3,970 area remains intact. Buyers can take advantage of pullbacks to increase their position, targeting 4,070 USD – where significant liquidity converges above. “Break the line, respect the retest — that’s where smart money joins the move.” ⚜️ ⏰ Timeframe: 1H 📅 Updated: 07/11/2025 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Gold 4H – Key Liquidity Zones Ahead of US PMI & Fed Commentary🥇 XAUUSD – Weekly Smart Money Outlook | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold continues to consolidate within a tight 4H range as traders prepare for a week influenced by U.S. PMI releases, Fed speeches, and shifting rate-cut expectations. Mixed economic signals — including softer labor data but resilient manufacturing prints — have kept gold trapped between supply overhead and stacked demand levels below. Institutional flows remain cautious, with markets waiting for clarity on the Fed’s stance. This uncertainty often fuels liquidity-driven sweeps, making this week especially favorable for SMC-style setups. Short-term volatility is expected as price interacts with major liquidity pools on both ends of the range. 🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View) • Price is moving within a well-defined range structure, with repeated liquidity grabs on both sides indicating accumulation by larger players. • The latest 4H ChoCH signals continued hesitation from buyers near the mid-range, hinting that the market may engineer another sweep before committing to a directional leg. • A significant Premium Supply Zone at 4154–4152 sits just above recent equal highs — an attractive area for liquidity hunts followed by potential short-term distribution. • Conversely, the Discount Demand Zone at 3907–3909 aligns with previous structural reaction levels and sits below a liquidity shelf, making it an ideal zone for re-accumulation. • Expect engineered stop-hunts around mid-range liquidity (4000–4016) before a stronger move develops. 🟢 Buy Zone: 3907–3909 SL: 3900 TP targets: 3978 → 4003 → 4016 → 4125 Rationale: • Discount zone within the current 4H range • Liquidity resting below the structure lows • Potential accumulation before the next bullish impulse 🔴 Sell Zone: 4154–4152 SL: 4161 TP targets: 4080 → 4016 → 3978 → 3920 Rationale: • Premium supply positioned above equal-high liquidity • Likely area for a sweep before corrective downside • Confluence with previous 4H structure rejection ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 ChoCH or BOS confirmation inside each zone before entering. • Expect liquidity manipulation around 4000–4016, especially during US session opens. • Avoid entries 10–15 minutes before major Fed or PMI releases to limit spread expansion. • Scale partial profits at each structural target to lock in gains while letting runners play out. ✅ Summary Gold remains in a controlled 4H range with clear institutional footprints above and below the current price. Smart Money is likely to engineer a move into either the 4150 supply or the 3900 demand before choosing its next major direction. Both setups offer high-probability opportunities when combined with intraday confirmations. Stay patient, wait for liquidity sweeps, and respect structure. Premium sells remain valid at 4154–4152, while discounted buys are favored at 3907–3909. 🔔 FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for daily SMC setups ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
9
XAU/USD – Holds Its Range, Preparing for a Year-End Expansion🔍 Market Context Friday’s New York session closed with a two-sided liquidity sweep, yet gold managed to hold its structural balance, maintaining the same rhythm seen over the past two weeks — sideways to mildly bearish, but firmly supported. This behavior shows that buyers are still defending key zones, especially around 3,940$ – 3,980$, which MMFLOW highlighted multiple times last week as the decisive liquidity floor. From a macro lens, the Fed’s cautious tone has slowed expectations for aggressive rate cuts — but the probability of another reduction before Q1 2026 remains alive. As we move toward the final stretch of the year, thinner liquidity and seasonal safe-haven flows could help gold establish a mid-term bottom, setting the stage for the next impulsive leg. 📊 Technical Structure (H4) The current chart presents a clear 5-wave recovery structure within a tightening range — a classic setup before expansion. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support Zone: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + strong absorption area) • 🎯 Wave 3 Target: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (first reaction zone) • ⚙️ Extended Target / Wave 5: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 projection) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term structure, possible re-accumulation lower. The structure remains sideways but constructive, and a confirmed breakout of the descending trendline could act as the catalyst for a year-end bullish continuation. 🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View Smart money continues to accumulate within equilibrium zones, with every liquidity sweep appearing more like preparation than rejection. As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the bullish bias remains valid — with a 60%+ probability of a move toward 4,130$+ in the short to mid-term. Historically, November–December often brings portfolio rebalancing and policy easing cycles, both of which may serve as fuel for a potential gold rally into Q1 2026. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “Accumulation isn’t waiting — it’s when big money quietly builds the next wave.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading