XAUUSD – Week 3: Can Fibo 2.618 Hold Firm?XAUUSD – Week 3: Can Fibo 2.618 Hold Firm?
Good day traders,
Gold has rallied for three consecutive weeks, repeatedly setting fresh all-time highs. This has made trading conditions more complex, particularly for short-term participants. The main challenges are:
Buying: Difficult to identify a reasonable entry point.
Selling: Highly risky, as it goes against the prevailing strong uptrend and can be extremely dangerous.
Market Structure and Key Levels
Gold has reached the psychological Fibonacci 2.618 extension and reacted there, before consolidating sideways around 3643, the closing price for this week.
The development of a sideways formation suggests the market requires additional time before attempting a decisive breakout.
The current trading range sits between 3675 – 3616, and it is likely that price will continue consolidating within this 60-dollar band, compressing further.
Bullish Scenario
Should the upper boundary be broken, the next objective would be 3800, with a longer-term expectation towards 4000 in the year ahead.
Bearish Scenario
Attention should be paid to liquidity reaction zones (FVG): 3595 – 3568 – 3540.
The major long-term buying zone is around 3500, where liquidity testing would largely be completed.
Trading Strategy
Patience is essential. Traders are advised to wait for a clear confirmation when price breaks out of the current sideways range. That moment will offer more reliable opportunities to establish positions.
This is the scenario I propose for gold in the coming week. You may take it as a reference point and combine it with your own analysis to refine your trading plan.
For those actively engaged in gold trading, you are welcome to follow me and join the community for timely updates as market conditions evolve.
Wishing everyone a disciplined and successful trading week ahead.
Xauusdanalysis
A brief discussion on analysis and next week's trendGood weekend, is everyone having a good day today? Did you get together with family and friends? Regardless, I hope everyone enjoyed themselves.
Let me briefly tell you about our situation this week and my views on the gold trend next week. Gold maintained high-level fluctuations overall this week. Although it is still in an upward channel, it can be clearly seen from the daily chart that the upward momentum has slowed down compared with the continuous rise in the previous two weeks. Another intuitive feeling is that the current space below is much larger than the space above.
On Thursday and Friday, I repeatedly emphasized that only if gold breaks above 3660 can it continue to rise and reach the short-term high of 3675, or even a new high of 3690-3700. Considering that some friends find it difficult to distinguish between a genuine breakout and a false breakout, I suggested that the short-term resistance level of 3655-3665 be observed. Here I share a small piece of knowledge for your reference. In the face of a possible spike in the market, 80% of fluctuations are within the range of approximately $5-10. If you are unsure whether a resistance level has been effectively broken or a support level has been broken in the short term, you might as well leave yourself some room for maneuver and use a combination of small and large cycles to make judgments to avoid being distracted by false fluctuations.
Therefore, next week we can still consider focusing on the upper resistance range of 3655-3665. If the candlestick chart entity stands firmly above the resistance area, then the market will be as we expected, and the upper space is expected to be further opened in the short term.
From the news perspective, the first is an invisible piece of news that China and the United States will hold their fourth meeting, which will involve issues such as tariffs. If the two sides reach an agreement or move in a good direction this time, it may cool down the risk aversion sentiment and gold may fall. Secondly, Trump and Fed Governor Tim Cook are currently in legal proceedings. If Trump wins the case, will it reignite concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and thus interfere with gold prices?
Finally, the most important thing is the Fed's clear interest rate cut basis point. The current market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut. Whether the "buy expectations and sell facts" strategy we have always emphasized can be fulfilled and trigger a drop in gold prices depends on Powell's speech attitude. If his stance this time leans towards the hawks, then the market trend will most likely be in line with our expectations.
Overall, we need to be more cautious when going long on gold next week and not be too greedy for profits. There is limited upward space in the short term. Focus on the breakthrough of the 3655-3665 resistance and beware of the impact of news. At present, everything is just analysis. Specific operations can wait for Monday’s trading strategy. Finally, I wish you all a happy weekend!
Gold analysisHi, hope you’re doing well.
Personal outlook for the upcoming week:
The structure on the one-hour timeframe and higher remains bullish, so we continue to follow the chart on the one-hour structure. On this timeframe, the market has already made a CHoCH and hit internal liquidity, but it hasn’t yet succeeded in breaking the main CHoCH (3579). As long as it stays above this level, the trend remains bullish.
For the one-hour chart, liquidity points are clearly marked, and it’s expected that the price will first move toward hunting lower liquidity (including liquidity at 3637 and 3630) and find support around 3623–3618 for opposite liquidity (liquidity at 3656 and the last BOS ceiling liquidity-$$$).
After hunting 3656, there is a resistance level at 3666 which could push the price lower before the ceiling liquidity hunt. There are two possible scenarios for this:
1. This reaction acts only as a pullback, followed by continuation of the bullish trend toward a new high.
2. A deeper correction occurs toward untested TP-Seller zones, from which the price then moves toward the new high.
Gold Dips Pre-CPI: Fed Cut Hype Fuels Buying Opportunities!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) is slightly down today (11/09/2025) after yesterday’s weak PPI report—US wholesale inflation fell more than expected, boosting bets for a Fed rate cut next week to 100% for 0.25%, with growing odds for 0.5% (CME FedWatch). Tonight’s CPI and Jobless Claims at 19:30 ET will clarify inflation and labor trends, shaping the Fed’s exact cut. Gold won’t drop sharply unless hit by a shock like Trump tariffs—dips are buying opportunities! Let’s analyze today’s market and find trade setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines Bright 🌟
The weak PPI fuels rate cut expectations, easing pressure on USD and Treasuries, making non-yielding gold more attractive. With a 38% YTD surge (after 27% in 2024), gold is supported by a weak USD, China’s 10-month buying streak, and global uncertainty. CPI (11/09) will guide Fed policy—low inflation could push gold to new highs; high readings may trigger short-term dips. Keep RR tight!
Technical Analysis: Consolidation Pre-CPI – Favor Buying 📉
Gold rose in Asia but hit resistance at 364x OB, dropping to 362x with liquidity sweeps—set SLs carefully! The 362x zone is key; a break below could target 361x or 3600. The bullish trend remains strong—prioritize buying dips unless major resistance fails.
Resistance: 3640 - 3648 - 3659 - 3674
Support: 3621 - 3615 - 3607 - 3600
Trade Setups:
Sell Scalp: 3640 - 3642 (SL: 3646; TP: 3637 - 3632 - 3627)
Sell Zone: 3648 - 3650 (SL: 3658; TP: 3640 - 3630 - 3620)
Buy Scalp: 3617 - 3615 (SL: 3611; TP: 3620 - 3625 - 3630)
Buy Zone: 3601 - 3599 (SL: 3591; TP: 3611 - 3621 - 3631)
Gold is consolidating pre-CPI—watch for liquidity traps! Above 362x, bulls aim for new highs; below, test lower supports. Manage risk tightly before CPI volatility! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #USInflation
Gold Holds at Record HighsOver the past five trading sessions, the price of gold has gained more than 1.7%, consolidating at highs as the precious metal continues to attract capital flowing out of other markets. For now, buying pressure remains strong after the release of U.S. inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a low-rate policy in the short term. This scenario reduces the appeal of bonds and favors gold as a safe-haven asset, which continues to benefit from market confidence. As long as the outlook for lower rates persists, XAU/USD could see even stronger buying pressure.
Aggressive Trendline
Since late August, gold has posted a series of bullish moves that have shaped a strong buying trend in recent sessions. The price is moving within a steep trendline, reflecting the aggressiveness with which the metal has reached new highs. However, such sharp advances often open the door to technical corrections, as momentum tends to ease. If upcoming moves show signs of exhaustion, gold may experience pullbacks in the short term.
Technical Indicators
RSI: The RSI line is oscillating above 70, in overbought territory. This indicates that buying momentum has been dominant and is creating a balance distortion, which could pave the way for corrective pullbacks.
MACD: Both MACD lines are well above the zero level. However, a potential downward crossover between them would signal a loss of buying momentum in the short term and increase the likelihood of a consistent corrective move in the sessions ahead.
Key Levels to Watch:
$3,640 – Nearby Resistance: Marks the area of recent highs. A sustained breakout above would reinforce buying pressure and keep the aggressive bullish trend in place.
$3,577 – Nearby Support: Linked to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, this level acts as the first barrier against possible pullbacks.
$3,500 – Critical Support: Aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, this is the most crucial short-term level. A drop to this area would put the current uptrend at risk and give way to a more dominant bearish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Gold - This pattern just repeats!🚑Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) shifts bearish soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
With the previous 10 year bullish cycle, Gold perfectly followed market structure. With this 10 year cycle, Gold is still perfectly respecting market structure. Overall, it becomes more and more likely that Gold creates a top formation with a bearish correction following soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$3,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
XAUUSD Scalp Buy @ 3643XAUUSD Scalp Buy @ 3643
XAUUSD – Scalp Buy Setup at 3643 | Intraday Momentum Play
Gold is showing bullish momentum on lower timeframes, bouncing off minor support at 3643. Price action confirms buyer interest, with indicators flashing short-term upside potential. This scalp setup is designed for fast execution and tight risk control.
📌 Trade Parameters
- Entry: 3643
- Stop Loss: 3637.5 (below recent wick)
- Take Profit: 3652 / 3655
- Risk/Reward: ~1.5–2:1
📊 Technical Confluence
- Price above 55-MA channel on M1/M5 charts
- Heiken Ashi candles turning green (trend confirmation)
- RSI climbing from mid-zone, showing momentum
- MACD crossover on 5M chart
- Volume spike on bullish candles
💬 Scalper’s Narrative
Gold is reacting positively to intraday support, with buyers stepping in around 3643. If price holds above 3645, expect a quick push toward 3652–3655. This scalp setup favors fast execution during active sessions. Avoid trading inside the MA channel—wait for breakout confirmation.
Setup remains valid unless price breaks below 3637.5 with volume. Align with higher timeframe bias: scalp buys only if price is above the 200-MA
Bulls and Bears Poised to StrikeGold is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 3635-3655, with no clear signs of a breakthrough. However, judging from the current structure, gold has been showing an overall volatile upward trend since it rebounded near 3615.
What needs to be paid close attention to at present is the support performance near 3635. If gold can stand firmly above 3635, it will perfectly maintain the volatile upward structure and provide the prerequisite for breaking through the short-term resistance area of 3655-3665. Once gold uses this as a basis and breaks through the 3655-3665 area, then gold is expected to set a new high again, and even hit the area near 3700.
Since the bulls are still in an advantageous position and the overall structure of the market is oscillating upward, we have no reason not to execute long trades based on the long structure. Therefore, I think that in short-term trading, we can consider going moderately long on gold in the 3640-3630 area.
Breakout Confirmed, Macro Drivers & Key Liquidity Zones 🚀 XAUUSD | MMFLOW TRADING
📊 Market Context & Macro View
Gold (XAUUSD) has confirmed a breakout above its short-term descending trendline, signalling renewed bullish momentum after several sessions of compression. This move comes as traders price in slowing US inflation and increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve could pause or even ease monetary policy in the coming months.
🔹 Macro Drivers Supporting Gold:
US CPI & PPI softness → Indicates cooling inflation, reinforcing expectations for stable or lower rates.
Treasury yields steady, while a weaker USD provides an additional tailwind for gold prices.
Geopolitical tensions and central bank accumulation continue to underpin long-term bullish sentiment.
⚠ Risk: Liquidity sweeps remain a possibility ahead of next week’s Fed meeting—watch for false breakouts and sharp reversals.
🔑 Key Technical Levels (H1)
Immediate Resistance: 3,654.17 (React Zone FIB)
OBS Sell Zone: 3,664.52
Upper Liquidity Target: 3,679.31
Major Sell Liquidity: 3,709.85
Supports / Buy Liquidity Zones:
• 3,637.91 – Breakout Retest
• 3,631.63 – CP Support
• 3,622.41 – Deeper Liquidity Layer
• 3,584.78 – END Liquidity BUY ZONE
📈 Scenario & Outlook
London Session: Expect a retest of breakout zones (3,638–3,632) for liquidity collection before another potential leg higher.
A clean break through 3,654 → 3,664 could trigger fresh buying momentum toward 3,679–3,709.
Failure to hold 3,622 would expose deeper support at 3,584 as the next key level.
📌 Trading Plan
🔵 BUY ZONE 1: 3,635 – 3,633
SL: 3,629
TP: 3,640 → 3,645 → 3,650 → 3,660 → 3,670 → ???
🔵 BUY ZONE 2: 3,621 – 3,619
SL: 3,615
TP: 3,625 → 3,630 → 3,635 → 3,640 → 3,650 → 3,660 → ???
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,708 – 3,710
SL: 3,715
TP: 3,704 → 3,700 → 3,695 → 3,690 → 3,680 → ???
🔴 SELL SCALP: 3,679 – 3,681
SL: 3,685
TP: 3,675 → 3,670 → 3,665 → 3,660 → ???
✅ Summary
Gold is holding its breakout above key levels, supported by softer US inflation data and a weaker USD. Liquidity sweeps may occur in the near term, but the broader trend remains bullish as long as 3,622 holds.
👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates, liquidity scenarios, and BIGWIN trade setups as gold reacts to macro drivers and critical technical zones.
XAUUSD buy again at 3638.08Previous daily price was a stong rejection from this lower price with a long wick candle forming today price started to move again back to the upside with rejection from the support. As weekly close coming, we may see another test of the daily support and may continue with a bullish channel formation.
3638.08 level is one area can look for bullish trade setup for this potential uptrending move in the market.
XAUUSD Trading Recap and RecommendationYesterday, we successfully went long at a low level, entering the market within the 3,600-3,620 range. Today, when the price moved up to 3,650, we executed the TP as planned and secured profits smoothly.
Today's Trading Advice: Buy on Pullbacks
Buy 3630 - 3640
TP 3650 - 3660 - 3670
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
3655 accurately shorted gold to seize the opportunity of declineGold fluctuated higher today, rising from 3630 all the way to 3657. However, after encountering resistance at this level during the European session, it ultimately retreated. The overall trend remains consistent with our previous analysis and strategy. Today's strategy is to short on rebounds around 3655, watching for pullbacks. The current low has been around 3637, resulting in a small short-term gain of approximately 150 pips. Congratulations to those who followed this strategy for a solid win! For those who are short-term traders, it's recommended to lock in profits or lower your stop-loss to avoid profit taking. For those holding medium-term positions, manage your positions appropriately and patiently await the next wave of opportunities. Following the trend and executing your plan are the keys to stable profits in the market.
European session sees retracement, US session hits new highGood morning, everyone. Although gold has rebounded at present, it has not effectively broken through and stabilized above the short-term resistance of 3655-3660. In the short term, this resistance range still exerts a certain pressure on the gold price, but this does not mean that we give up the judgment that gold may reach a new high.
First of all, looking at the daily gold chart, we can find that yesterday's daily line closed with a negative line, but gold did not fall but rebounded and rose. This is not only the impact of data, but also shows that the buying funds in the current market are very strong. As I told you before, big changes in the market will only occur after the Fed's interest rate cut basis point is clear next week.
But at the same time, brothers need to be clear that we should be alert to the false break of gold. Therefore, we can give a floating space of about $5, relying on 3655-3665 to see the short-term suppression. It may fall back when encountering resistance here in the European session. You can try to short with a light position. The short-term support should focus on 3645-3635 below. If it falls back and the support is not broken, gold will continue to rise. In particular, be alert that gold in the US market may rebound to a new high based on the support level. If the European session directly returns to the lower support, we can go long on gold first.
Gold Analysis – Is the Correction Over?Yesterday I maintained my bias that OANDA:XAUUSD correction could extend lower, with 3570 as the focus for the next swing low. I even sold rallies above 3640 zone with that scenario in mind.
However, after the CPI release, Gold dipped to 3620 zone but quickly recovered. That prompted me to lock in a modest 100 pips gain rather than fight the market.
A wise move in hindsight, since Gold is now back testing the 3650+ resistance zone.
So, is the correction finished?
➡️ Most probably, yes.
Here’s why:
• Bulls are defending the 3620 zone, stepping in strongly on dips.
• The chart is shaping into a rectangle, typically a continuation pattern, which suggests consolidation before trend resumption.
• Momentum is aligning again with the broader bullish trend.
Trading Plan:
• As long as 3620 holds, my strategy shifts to buying dips instead of selling rallies.
• A break above 3660 would open the path for continuation, with 3700 as the next bullish milestone.
The market has spoken – the correction seems to be losing steam, and the trend is ready to reassert itself. 🚀
Quiet Storm:Bulls vs Bears in Waiting!Under the influence of CPI and initial jobless claims data, gold rose directly to the area around 3644. The short-term rise seems exaggerated, but it did not stand firmly above 3650, and even failed to reach the intraday high of 3649. The release of bullish momentum was relatively convergent; it can be clearly seen from the short-term candlestick chart that gold showed long upper shadows many times in the short term, and the trajectory and structure began to shift downward, and tested support downward many times, which also proved that the short-selling force was gradually recovering after being suppressed.
However, gold rebounded after touching the 3620-3610 support area several times during the retracement. Although the bullish momentum has declined in the short term, the bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, so the overall structure is still controlled by the bulls, and the bullish force still has enough strength to support gold.
Overall, as the bulls become more cautious and the bears gradually recover, gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is likely to remain in the 3655-3615 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, we can strictly stick to the trading points and execute high-selling and low-buying transactions within the area.
Wait for new highs and go long on pullbacksA good day starts with profits, now let's analyze the trend of gold today.📊
Gold is currently consolidating around 3650, with 3655-3665 forming short-term resistance above. The 4H MACD indicator is correcting a top divergence. Having first touched this resistance level in the European session, gold may experience a pullback. 📉As the price of gold continues to rise, the short-term support also moves up. Pay attention to the short-term support area formed by 3640-3630. 🌈If gold retraces support and then rebounds above this resistance level, it could first reach 3675, or even reach a new high of 3690-3700, as we anticipated yesterday.🚀
Intraday operations are mainly long at low levels, supplemented by short at high levels, and participate in trading in key ranges.
XAUUSD Gold Intraday Move 12.09.2025Intraday Analysis
The market has recently broken out of a descending trendline, showing signs of bullish momentum. After the breakout, price retraced toward previous supply turned demand zones, creating potential buying opportunities at key levels.
Key Observations:
Trendline Breakout:
The downward trendline has been broken, indicating a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Retests of the broken structure often provide high-probability entries.
Demand Zones:
Zone 1 (3630–3633): This level aligns with a prior consolidation area and trendline retest. A bounce here could trigger continuation toward higher resistance.
Zone 2 (3612–3616): This is a deeper support zone and serves as a secondary buying opportunity if the first level fails.
Targets and Risk Management:
For Zone 1, the upside target is 3657 with a protective stop below 3622.
For Zone 2, the upside target is 3640 with a stop below 3606.
Both setups provide a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Confirmation Requirement:
Entries should only be considered once at least two confirmations are present. Possible confirmations include:
Bullish candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection wicks).
Break of minor intraday structure to the upside.
Volume spike or momentum divergence supporting the bullish bias.
Conclusion:
The bias remains bullish while above 3612. The first area of interest is 3630–3633 for a potential long entry toward 3657. If price dips deeper, the 3612–3616 zone provides the next opportunity for a bounce targeting 3640. Proper confirmation is essential before committing to trades, and stops should be respected to manage risk effectively.
Gold (XAUUSD) – 12 Sep | Short Setup Watching 3651 – 3657.6 POI🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 12 September
Market Context
• Price is currently trading around 3649, approaching our fresh M15 POI (3651 – 3657.6) .
• We have seen a recent Break of Structure (BoS) to the downside, confirming a short-term shift to bearish sentiment.
• Price has now retraced back into the POI zone, aligning with a potential short setup area.
Key Observations
• POI Zone: 3651 – 3657.6 (aligned with LH + supply zone)
• Liquidity Sweep Potential: Price might push slightly above the POI to grab liquidity before resuming the downtrend.
• Structure: Market is forming lower highs and lower lows after the BoS, reinforcing a bearish bias unless price closes decisively above the POI.
Execution Plan
• Wait for price to retest 3651 – 3657.6
• Look for M1 confirmation (micro-ChoCh / micro-BoS)
• If confirmation aligns → plan short setup with fixed risk ( SL: 40 pips | TP: 120 pips , 1:3 R:R)
• If the POI is broken → step aside and reassess deeper levels
Invalidation
A clean break and 15M candle close above 3657.6 invalidates the short idea.
Patience pays — let the market reject the POI before committing capital.
Bias for Today
📉 Bearish only. Short setups will be taken only from the POI zone with confirmation.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
XAU/USD 12 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2025.
Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2025.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price is currently trading within and internal low and internal high as price has printed a bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,674.695.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart: