Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 27, 2025)Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 27, 2025)
🔹 Momentum
• D1 Timeframe:
D1 momentum remains clustered, suggesting that a bullish reversal could occur at any time. However, since momentum has not yet separated clearly, short-term downside pressure still exists.
• H4 Timeframe:
H4 momentum is currently declining, meaning that the downtrend could continue. We need to wait for H4 momentum to reach the oversold area and observe the market’s reaction there to determine whether the current drop is complete.
• H1 Timeframe:
H1 momentum is rising slightly, indicating the potential for a short-term rebound. However, since H4 is still in a down phase, any upward movement could face resistance near the 4098 level.
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🔹 Wave Structure
• D1 Timeframe:
Price is currently moving sideways while D1 momentum remains stuck together, signaling a possible upcoming 5-day rally once D1 momentum turns upward into the overbought zone.
o If price fails to break above wave (3) yellow, this move is likely a wave (4) yellow correction.
o Conversely, if price breaks above wave (3) yellow, the current correction may only be a minor wave within wave (3) yellow.
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🔹 Two Main Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (WXY blue completed):
If the WXY blue corrective structure has finished, the market may start a new wave (5) purple uptrend.
In this case:
• As H4 momentum moves into the oversold area, price should not fall deeply toward 4004.
• A sharp and decisive rebound from that zone would confirm this bullish scenario.
2️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Correction still in progress):
If the correction is not yet complete, the H4 decline could continue:
• Price might break below 4004, or at least retest it.
• If that happens, the downtrend could extend toward 3953 or 3927.
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🔹 H1 Structure – Triangle Formation
On the H1 chart, price is consolidating within a contracting triangle, suggesting sideways accumulation with two possible interpretations:
• Scenario 1:
The triangle represents wave X of the WXY black structure.
When H4 momentum reaches the oversold zone and price holds above 4004, we may see an impulsive breakout toward the previous high at 4381, completing a flat correction of wave (4) yellow (D1).
• Scenario 2:
The triangle is wave (4) of wave Y blue, meaning that once completed, price could decline further toward 3953 or 3927 to finish wave Y. After that, a more stable upward wave is expected.
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🔹 Trading Plan
Currently, price remains inside the triangle pattern:
• For experienced traders:
Wait for a breakout of either side of the triangle for direct entry.
• For more conservative traders:
Wait for Buy opportunities near strong support below.
🎯 Buy Zone: 3930 – 3927
🛑 Stop Loss: 3917
🎯 TP1: 4004
👉 If price breaks above 4149, we can look for Buy entries upon breakout, expecting an extended upward move toward 4268 or higher.
