Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 5, 2025
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Momentum
• D1: Momentum has already turned bearish, suggesting that in the coming days we could see a corrective decline. Since today is Friday, be cautious of potential liquidity sweeps before the weekly close.
• H4: Momentum is still rising, but with about 1 hour left before the current H4 candle closes, it is likely to enter the overbought zone, which would increase the risk of reversal.
• H1: Momentum is weakening and preparing to reverse, showing that the current upward move is losing strength.
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Wave Structure
• D1: No major changes. A corrective decline is likely in the coming days. The depth of this correction will help us identify the exact wave structure. For now, patience is needed until D1 momentum reaches the oversold area and new patterns form.
• H4: Price still seems to be in the corrective phase of wave iv (purple). With H4 momentum about to enter the overbought zone, I still expect a downward move to complete wave iv before the market continues upward into wave v (purple).
• H1: We can see an ABC (green) structure forming, as mentioned yesterday. However, because it developed quite quickly, it could also evolve into a Flat, Triangle, or Combination pattern.
o Price is moving in a choppy, overlapping manner.
o Combined with H4 momentum nearing overbought → it’s likely that wave B is forming, followed by a downward move to complete wave iv (purple).
o If a Flat plays out, price could rise toward 3578 (or higher) before dropping back below that level.
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Targets
• Wave C: We need to wait for wave B to complete before setting more reliable targets. For now, keep yesterday’s target zones: 3498 – 3469.
• Wave v (purple): No significant change compared to yesterday’s plan.
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Trading Plan
Buy Zone 1: 3500 – 3498
• SL: 3490
• TP1: 3524
Buy Zone 2: 3471 – 3469
• SL: 3459
• TP1: 3500
Xauusdanalysis
Rebound or Trap? Why I’m Selling RalliesYesterday’s Move
After printing a fresh ATH, profit-taking started late in the New York session. This was followed by stronger selling pressure during the Asian hours, which dragged the price overnight down to 3510. Currently, we see a rebound, with price trading around 3530.
Key Question
Is this rebound the start of a recovery—or just a pause before another leg down?
Why I Expect the Correction to Continue
- The market sold off 650 pips from the new ATH, confirming a local top.
- Momentum becomes fragile after 2k pips rise in just 10 days
- Selling pressure could easily return, especially if buyers struggle to hold above 3550.
Trading Plan
I’ll be looking to sell rallies against the recent top, targeting first the 3500 psychological level, and then the 3470 technical confluence support.
Gold Price Analysis September 5On the larger time frame, the current wave structure is quite difficult to clearly identify, so we temporarily switch to the H1 analysis.
At this point, the 3355 zone is an important barrier in the short-term trend. With the bullish momentum of the candle, it is likely that this level will soon be broken, opening up an opportunity for the price to move towards the historical peak of 3575, and may even extend to 3610 today.
On the contrary, the correction scenario will only be triggered when the 3540 zone is broken, in which case the price may retreat to the important support level of 3514. If 3514 continues to be broken, the downward correction trend will be confirmed.
📌 Reference strategy:
BUY when the price breaks through 3355 (according to the breakout system).
BUY DCA when it crosses 3375, long target towards 3610.
SELL only activates if the trendline at 3340 is broken, target around 3515.
Gold head and shoulders top appears, beware of falling risksSeveral US data released an hour ago were all bullish for gold, including the crucial ADP and initial jobless claims figures. However, gold's price hasn't seen much of a rally.
I think this is because some investors are taking profits on the one hand, and on the other hand the data's impact on the September rate cut is decreasing.
I believe a September rate cut is inevitable, but the hype has been excessive. Gold prices have been rising for some time, and this has already been largely priced in.
In addition, the one-hour chart shows that if gold prices fall from 3550, a head and shoulders top pattern will form, with 3350 being the final shoulder.
So, I believe shorting gold is a viable option as long as it fails to hold above 3550.
📣If you have different opinions, please leave a message below to discuss
XAUUSD – Technical Outlook after ADP NONFARMGold (XAUUSD) attempted to recover but failed to break through the 3559 – 3561 (OBS Sell Zone – CP Down Zone). The sharp rejection from this resistance confirms that sellers remain in short-term control.
At present, price is retracing towards the 3528 – 3515 support zone – a key level to watch:
If buyers defend 3515, we could see a rebound back toward the 3550 – 3559 resistance zone.
A clear break below 3515 would signal stronger bearish pressure, opening the path toward 3486 – 3477 (Liquidity & OBS Buy Zone) where large orders are likely waiting.
Additionally, the 3537 – 3540 VPOC/Sideway Range remains a critical balance area where short-term market direction could be decided.
📌 Key Technical Levels
Major Resistance: 3550 – 3559
Near-term Support: 3528 – 3515
Liquidity & BUY Zone: 3486 – 3477
📊 MMFLOW Trading View:
Short-term momentum currently favours a corrective move lower after the rejection at 3559 – 3561. The reaction at 3515 will be crucial:
Holding above → potential rebound to retest 3550 – 3559
Breaking lower → extended downside towards 3486 – 3477 liquidity zone
XAUUSD SELL NOW 3537🟠 XAUUSD – Bearish Setup at 3537 Short Opportunity
Gold has reached a key resistance zone around 3537, aligning with prior supply and overbought conditions on intraday indicators. Price action shows signs of exhaustion after a strong bullish leg, with divergence on RSI and volume tapering off.
🔻 Trade Idea: SELL XAUUSD @ 3537
- Entry: 3537
- Stop Loss: 3548 (above recent swing high)
- Take Profit: 3505 / 3480
- Risk/Reward: ~2:1
📉 Technical Confluence:
- Rejection from upper Bollinger Band
- Bearish engulfing candle on 1H
- MACD crossover signaling downside momentum
- Fib 61.8% retracement zone from last swing
💡 Narrative:
With rising Treasury yields and hawkish Fed tone weighing on gold, this setup favors a short-term correction. A break below 3525 could accelerate downside toward 3480 support.
XAUUSD Liquidity Addiction: Why Your Brain Wants to Get Swept
💫There’s a cruel irony in trading: the cleaner a level looks, the more dangerous it usually is. ATHs, equal highs, perfect lows, and round numbers shine like neon signs saying “enter here.” And your brain, wired for safety and clarity, feels drawn to them like a moth to light. The problem? In SMC, those are not safe zones. They’re bait.
1. The Brain Craves Clarity
The human mind hates uncertainty. When a chart looks messy, hesitation dominates. But on the show of perfect symmetry, you relax because you see something clear. That relaxation is a dopamine hit, and you get addicted to it. But in the markets, the very thing that calms you down is what sets you up.
2. Trap in Action
You’ve seen it before. Price builds a flawless high, traders lean in heavy with sells, certain it can’t go higher — and then Gold rips into new ATHs. The sweep takes them out in minutes. What hurts most isn’t the loss itself, it’s the betrayal. You were so sure and felt safe. And that’s the point: the moment of peak confidence is the moment of maximum exposure.
3. Psychological Addiction
This cycle is repetitive for your brain, giving it a fake feeling of safety. Every “almost win,” every daily plan that looked perfect, every friend who caught that one clean breakout — it all trains you to crave the next hit of certainty. You’re not hooked on trading itself but on the illusion of control. The market doesn’t have to be smarter than you. It just has to let your brain do the 'work', then they take a piece of your account with your SL being hit.
📋 Takeaways
1. Spot the bait, don’t buy/sell it → If it looks too perfect, don’t ask “what am I benefiting?” but ask “WHO’s benefiting from this?”
2. Don’t trade the sweep itself → Wait for the reaction & confirmation after liquidity is taken.
3. Flip the perspective → Ask where the trap is being set, not where the bait is shining.
4. Patience is a position → Sweeps only work because traders can’t sit still.
🔑Liquidity does not hunt you. It waits for you to walk in. The moment you stop chasing certainty and start chasing context — structure, reactions, and intent — the game changes.
The 'traps' and 'baits' are in plain sight, so they cannot fool you so often.
If this article helped you today and brought you more clarity:
Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more trading ideas and trading psychology. Thank you.
XAUUSD: Overbought, will bears take over?Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4H chart is showing strength after a strong rally, but the signs of exhaustion are starting to creep in. The VWAP Dashboard shows price trading well above VWAP at 3,523 vs. 3,492, a classic overextension that often leads to pullbacks. The RSI sits at 76.9, deep in overbought territory, hinting that bulls may soon run out of steam.
The price action has just tapped into a key resistance zone near 3,538, aligning with a Fibonacci confluence. This level previously acted as resistance, and now it creates a high-probability rejection area. Meanwhile, the volatility bands wrapping around price show expansion, a sign of stretched momentum and potential mean reversion.
The Fibonacci retracement levels lay out clear downside targets:
3,508 (38.2%) 🎯 – first potential support where minor buyers may step in.
3,490 (61.8%) 🟡 – the golden pocket retracement, often a strong reaction zone.
3,459 (100%) 🔻 – deeper correction aligning with trendline support.
Unless bulls can break and hold above 3,538, the chart suggests that sellers may take control in the short term, pushing gold down into these Fibonacci zones.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to Watch | 04/09/25Gold dropped sharply into the Pullback Zone during the Asian session after the strong rally into the $3,584 resistance. Price is now trending near the $3,550 level, with the 50MA providing dynamic support.
If buyers can reclaim momentum above $3,550, the path opens toward $3,584, and a clean break there would target $3,608. On the downside, failure to hold above $3,525 risks a deeper retracement into $3,506, with extended weakness pointing toward $3,483 and the lower support zones.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
$3,550
$3,584
$3,608
Support:
$3,525
$3,506
$3,483
$3,462
🔎 Fundamental Focus – Rest of the Week
Markets now turn to the U.S. labor data cluster:
Thursday: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI
Friday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, Wage Growth
These figures are likely to be the main catalysts for gold as the week wraps up.
⚠️ Risk Note: Expect elevated volatility, false breaks, and sharp intraday reversals around data drops. Stay disciplined on risk sizing and avoid chasing moves.
Inflation is rising but countries are still pumping moneyGold rose amid rising global bond yields.
In the US, the 30-year Treasury yield approached 5%, while yields on UK, Australian and Japanese bonds also rose rapidly. The sell-off reflected concerns about large government spending and the risk of inflation. According to Bloomberg, the global bond yield index fell 0.4% on September 2, indicating strong selling pressure.
In addition, a series of corporate bond sales on September 2 and uncertainties related to the independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) increased pressure on the bond market in general.
In addition, investors are also cautious about the possibility that US stocks and many other markets will enter a period of sharp decline in September-October, which has often seen large fluctuations in the past.
Gold is entering a new bull run after several months of stagnation. Contrary to forecasts of a deep correction, the precious metal has maintained its strength and bounced back thanks to signals that the Fed may ease monetary policy under pressure from President Donald Trump.
The Fed signaled a rate cut despite inflation remaining high, near 3% instead of the 2% target of many years ago. This means that the prices of goods and services may go up, and the USD may lose value.
XAUUSD – 1H | OB / FVG Roadmap Price currently: 3539.7
🔴 1H Supply (Sell Zone): 3565 – 3575
🟩 1H OB #1: 3488 – 3470
🟩 1H OB #2: 3455 – 3440
🟦 1H FVG: 3405 – 3390
🟩 Deep 1H OB: 3382 – 3372
Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation:
If price holds above 3488–3470 OB, I’ll look for buys targeting 3565–3575 supply zone.
Acceptance above 3575 could open doors to continuation higher (new highs).
Invalidation: clean 1H close below 3470.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback:
If price fails to hold 3488–3470, next area for potential long setups is 3455–3440 OB, and then the unmitigated 3405–3390 FVG.
I will look for bullish CHoCH/BOS on 3–5m TF before entering.
Targets for rebound are 3530 (mid-range) and 3565–3575 (supply zone).
Execution: No blind orders – confirmation required on LTF.
📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
Gold/XAUUSD Intrday Move 04.09.2025Gold is currently trading near 3539, after retracing into yesterday’s demand zone at 3526–3531. This zone has shown strong reactions previously and continues to hold as a key level for buyers.
🔑 Key Reasoning
Demand Zone: Price is retesting 3526–3531, a strong support area where buyers previously stepped in.
Bullish Continuation Bias: The broader structure remains bullish, and as long as this zone holds, the outlook favors continuation to the upside.
Confirmation Level: A decisive close above 3542 would confirm bullish momentum and open the way for further upside.
Invalidation: A break below 3511 (recent low) would invalidate the bullish setup and shift bias to neutral/short-term bearish.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry: Buy from 3526–3531 demand zone.
Confirmation: Add positions if price closes clearly above 3542.
Stop-Loss: Below 3511 (recent low).
Targets:
First target: 3578 (recent swing high).
👉 Summary: Bias stays bullish above 3526–31 demand zone. A clean break above 3542 strengthens the case for continuation toward 3578, with invalidation below 3511.
Gold 04/09 – Smart Money Setup: Sell Scalp, Prep for Buy Zones🟢 Market Context
Gold is currently showing a short-term bearish setup after a ChoCH (Change of Character) near 3,536.556. The market is rejecting supply and forming liquidity sweeps around the 3,531–3,533 zone. Expecting price to pull lower toward demand areas before the next bullish leg.
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📍 Key Levels & Trade Plan
🔴 Intraday Sell (Scalp Opportunity)
• Entry: 3,531 – 3,533
• Stop Loss: 3,535
• Target: 3,485
🟢 Swing Buy Zones
1. Buy Zone 1: 3,475 – 3,477
o Stop Loss: 3,470
o Target: 3,508 – 3,526
2. Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Discount): 3,441 – 3,443
o Stop Loss: 3,435
o Target: 3,500+
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⚖️ SMC Bias
• Short-term: Bearish scalp from supply zone.
• Mid-term: Looking for liquidity grab and bullish reversal at demand zones.
• Long-term: Maintaining bullish order flow as long as deeper demand (3,441) holds.
XAUUSD – Liquidity Gap & Key Levels Before ADP/NFPAfter yesterday’s rally, Gold (XAUUSD) pulled back over 60 points, returning to the VPOC 3537 zone. This sharp move suggests a possible short-term ATH near 357x, where many SELLs were forced out while BUYs locked in profits.
Currently, Gold is in a correction phase ahead of ADP today and NFP tomorrow. With ADP expected at 73K vs. 104K prior, weaker data could support further upside if USD weakens.
The 60+ point drop shows profit-taking by big players and left liquidity gaps on both sides, bringing price back into the 353x–354x range. A breakout of this range will likely dictate today’s trend.
🔑 Key Resistance Levels
3540 - 3548 - 3560 - 3576
🔑 Key Support Levels
3526 - 3515 - 3502 - 3490 - 3476
📌 Trade Setups (MMFLOW Trading View)
BUY Scalp: 3502 – 3500
SL: 3494
TP: 3506 – 3510 – 3520 – 3530 – 3540 – ???
BUY Zone: 3477 – 3475
SL: 3470
TP: 3485 – 3495 – 3500 – 3510 – 3520 – 3530 – 3540 – 3550 – ???
SELL Scalp: 3559 – 3561
SL: 3566
TP: 3554 – 3550 – 3540 – 3530 – 3520 – 3510 – 3500 – ???
SELL Zone: 3574 – 3576
SL: 3580
TP: 3570 – 3560 – 3550 – 3540 – 3530 – ???
📊 MMFLOW TRADING View:
Today’s market context suggests continued correction before ADP/NFP. Sideway accumulation remains dominant in 353x–354x, but a decisive breakout will guide today’s direction.
Gold 03/09 – Smart Money Playbook: Buy the Dip, Sell the High🟢 Market Context
Gold maintains a bullish order flow after multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and ChoCH (Change of Character) confirmations. Price is currently consolidating near the 3,533–3,540 zone, with a clear FVG (Fair Value Gap) below. The market shows potential for liquidity sweep before another leg upward.
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📍 Key Levels
• Resistance (Sell Zones): 3564 | 3575–3576 | 3586 | 3595
• Support (Buy Zones): 3528 | 3508 | 3494 | 3480–3478 | 3468
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🛠️ Trade Ideas
✅ Buy Zone (Intraday Swing)
• Entry: 3480 – 3478
• SL: 3473
• TP: 3485 – 3490 – 3500 – 3515 – 3520 – 3530
📌 Expectation: Price to mitigate FVG and react from demand zone before continuation upward.
✅ Buy Scalp (Quick Reaction)
• Entry: 3501 – 3503
• SL: 3491
• TP: 3510 – 3525 – 3545 – 3550
📌 Expectation: Short-term liquidity grab above 3500 psychological level leading to bullish push.
❌ Sell Zone (Countertrend Play)
• Entry: 3575 – 3573
• SL: 3582
• TP: 3565 – 3555 – 3545 – 3530 – 3520
📌 Expectation: Strong supply zone where smart money may hunt liquidity before reversal.
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🔑 SMC Insights
• BOS confirms bullish bias, but price may retrace to fill imbalance (FVG).
• Liquidity likely resting around 3480–3500 before a push to test 3575+.
• High probability of buying dips at demand and selling extreme supply zones.
Gold’s Next Move: DOWN!!!Although gold continues its strong upward trend, it still provides opportunities for pullbacks during the day. For example, it hit a low of 3470-3467 yesterday. Currently, the highest price of gold has reached around 3550. Gold continues to set new historical highs. There is no price behavior and technical resistance above it as a reference. But obviously, as long as gold remains above 3540, I will not choose to aggressively chase gold at high levels.
On the contrary, while gold is rising, I will still try to short gold at the top while setting protection. In terms of price behavior, gold started to rise from around 3322 and has reached around 3550 so far, with an increase of up to $228. Although there has been no decent retracement during this period, this strong momentum is indeed easy to form a combined force. However, once the market returns to rationality, the decline will definitely not be small. So at the current stage, I do not advocate going long on gold. On the contrary, I will actively look for opportunities to short gold!
In the short term, we first need to observe gold's performance in the 3540-3530 area. If gold cannot fall below this area during the retracement, it may have the potential to continue to rise. If gold falls below the 3540-3530 area, the first retracement target will be the 3525-3515 area. If this area is broken, it is likely to continue to 3500-3490.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 4/9/2025
Momentum
• D1: Currently showing bearish reversal signals. We need to wait for today’s daily candle close to confirm. If confirmed, it is likely that the recent rally has ended and the market will enter a corrective phase lasting several days.
• H4: Momentum is moving into the oversold zone, suggesting that the current downward correction may be close to completion. Afterward, a rebound is expected within the next 1–2 H4 candles.
• H1: Momentum is in the oversold zone and showing signs of turning upward, indicating a short-term bullish bounce is likely.
Wave Structure
• D1: The first bearish candle has appeared after a steep rally, suggesting a 5-wave structure. The ongoing correction will help determine whether this was the completion of a larger Wave 5 or just Wave 1 within Wave 5.
• H4: After reaching 3578, price turned lower. This likely marked the completion of black Wave 5, as well as the green wave and purple Wave iii. The market is now in the corrective phase of purple Wave iv.
• H1: Purple Wave iii has completed, including both black Wave 5 and green Wave v. An ABC corrective structure is currently forming, but its formation time is relatively short, which means extra caution is needed as the correction may not be fully completed or could extend further.
📍 Target zones for the completion of purple Wave iv:
• Zone 1: 3498
• Zone 2: 3469
Once purple Wave iv is completed, the uptrend is expected to continue into purple Wave v with projected targets:
• Target 1: 3602
• Target 2: 3667
Trading Plan
• Buy Zone 1: 3500 – 3498
o SL: 3490
o TP1: 3524
• Buy Zone 2: 3471 – 3469
o SL: 3459
o TP1: 3500
Gold Smashes Records: Trade the Fed Drama & Rate Cut Hype!Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold Keeps Breaking Records! 🌟
New Peaks: Spot gold hit a record $3,527.5/oz on September 2, with analysts predicting a climb to $3,600-$3,900 this year, potentially surpassing $4,000 by 2026 if economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Reuters polls show 2025 average price forecasts rising from $2,756/oz (January) to $3,220/oz (July). 📈
Fed Rate Cut Buzz: Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising job market risks, boosting bets for a September rate cut. “A weakening USD, fueled by rate cut expectations, investor aversion to US assets, and tariff-related economic uncertainty, supports gold,” says Ricardo Evangelista from ActivTrades. Gold thrives in low-rate environments! 🏦
USD Weakness: The USD has lost nearly 11% since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, making gold more attractive to foreign currency holders. 📉
Fed Drama: Trump’s criticism of Powell and attempts to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook have raised fears about Fed independence, driving safe-haven gold demand. “Speculative bullishness stems from potential Fed interference and concerns over the USD’s safe status,” notes Carsten Menke from Julius Baer. ⚖️🇺🇸
Other Drivers: Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and central bank buying (e.g., China’s PBOC added gold for the 9th consecutive month in July 2025). The World Gold Council (WGC) reports central banks plan to increase gold reserves while reducing USD holdings. “Rising gold prices and central bank accumulation are boosting gold’s share in reserves,” says Michael Hsueh from Deutsche Bank. Gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Trust saw holdings rise 12% YTD to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Surge Continues, Prioritize BUY but Watch for Pullbacks! 📉
Gold keeps setting new highs, breaking through the round 3,500 level, dipping briefly to 3,469, then surging to 3,54x—near the Fibonacci extension 0.618. No clear reversal signals yet, so prioritize BUY if gold retraces to 3,52x or 3,51x. Bulls remain in control!
Key Resistance: 3,554 - 3,564 - 3,574
Key Support: 3,521 - 3,508 - 3,450 - 3,475
Trading Opportunities:
Sell Scalp : 3,543 - 3,545
SL: 3,549
TP: 3,540 - 3,535 - 3,530
Sell Zone : 3,571 - 3,573
SL: 3,581
TP: 3,563 - 3,553 - 3,543 - 3,523
Buy Scalp: 3,510 - 3,508
SL: 3,504
TP: 3,513 - 3,518 - 3,528
Buy Zone: 3,475 - 3,473
SL: 3,465
TP: 3,483 - 3,493 - 3,503 - 3,513 - Open
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #Trump #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #Crypto
Gold Price Analysis September 4✨ Gold analysis today ✨
In the Asian session, gold prices recorded a correction after a series of strong increases for many consecutive days. The market is moving towards important support zones, this will be a notable point to find trading opportunities.
🔹 Main trend: prioritize monitoring BUY orders at support, because the bullish force is still dominant.
🔹 With SELL orders, it is necessary to observe real-time price reactions to take advantage of short-term declines if any.
News calendar: today there is an ADP report - this could be a factor that triggers fluctuations, creating a correction for gold.
📌 Reference strategy:
BUY around the 3495 - 3458 area when there is a clear price rejection signal.
GOLD London Session Update – Sideways Before the Big MoveGold (XAUUSD) continues to consolidate within the 354x – 352x range, building a clear sideways structure after its recent strong rally.
📊 MMFLOW VIEW (London Session Focus)
The market is now in accumulation mode as the London session develops – volatility is expected to increase as liquidity builds up.
If price breaks above ATH 3546, momentum could quickly push gold towards the Liquidity Sell Zone 357x.
On the other hand, if 3526 support fails, we may see a liquidity sweep with price retracing into the FVG & Liquidity Buy Zone 3508 – 3480 before resuming the bullish trend.
🔑 Key Levels (London Watchlist)
Resistance: 3546 | 3564 | 3576
Support: 3526 | 3508 | 3494 | 3480
⚠️ During the European session, gold often builds false breaks to collect liquidity before the real move.
👉 Stay patient and wait for a clean breakout confirmation before committing to a position.
🔥 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time plans into the New York session – don’t miss the big move!