XAU/USD 12 February 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias to remain the same as analysis dated 02 February 2026.
Price has printed as per analysis dated 22 January where I mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 5,602,225.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias to largely remain the same as analysis dated 02 February 2026. I have added to intraday expectation with respect to alternative scenario.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 30 January 2025 where I mentioned, in alternative scenario, price could print a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require a pullback.
This is exactly how price printed.
Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently contained within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price trade up to either M15 supply zone, or premium of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal low, priced at 4,402.380.
Alternative scenario:
Price to potentially print bullish iBOS as H4 pullback could be complete, however, Daily and Weekly TF still require pullback.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
