Gold Ascending Triangle Breakout - Targets $3,800+This chart is not only for trading, it’s also for educational purposes and shows a long-term trade setup. You can see how the triangle pattern works here.
On the monthly time frame chart shows a clear bullish structure: a rising lower-trendline (series of higher lows), a flat horizontal resistance across the highs (an ascending-triangle shape) and a breakout candle that closes above that horizontal resistance. That is a bullish monthly breakout => the path of least resistance is upward while the breakout holds. (Market context: gold was hitting fresh lifetime highs around 22 Sep 2025 as Fed easing hopes and safe-haven flows supported the move.
Price structure & pattern (what the chart is telling you)
Pattern: the formation is an ascending triangle — horizontal (flat) highs vs. rising lows. This pattern is bullish because buyers progressively step in at higher prices against a persistent overhead supply line. The measured-move technique for triangles (height of the pattern added to the breakout) is a standard way to estimate a conservative target.
Trend: monthly trend is bullish — higher highs and higher lows inside a rising channel drawn above and below price. The breakout out of the triangle also cleared the upper channel midline, increasing odds of a run to the upper channel boundary.
Confirmation to watch: a monthly close back below the breakout level and the rising trendline would weaken the bullish case.
Practical Measured Target
Using the measured-move method gives a conservative first target:
Example estimate from the chart: take the triangle height ≈ (resistance ~3,450) − (swing low ~3,100) = 350. (3,450 − 3,100 = 350).
Add the height (350) to the breakout level (~3,450) → 3,450 + 350 = 3,800 as the first measured target; extension toward the top of the longer-term channel puts price into the ~3,900–4,000 neighborhood if momentum continues. (This is the standard target method — actual numbers depend on the exact points you measure on the chart).
Key levels
Immediate resistance / near-term targets: 3,700–3,900 (measured target and channel top).
Immediate support (first line): the breakout zone / prior flat resistance (now support) — roughly 3,350–3,450 on the chart.
Secondary support: rising lower-trendline / channel mid — roughly 3,100–3,250.
Strong structural support well below: 2,700–2,800 (major prior lows and horizontal red lines on the chart).
Use these as rules-of-thumb zones: if price reclaims and holds the breakout zone, bulls remain in control; if price closes monthly back below the rising trendline, the bullish pattern has failed.
Macro drivers & why the breakout matters now
Interest-rate expectations and real yields are the dominant macro drivers for gold: falling real yields (and expectations of Fed rate cuts) make gold more attractive, and the 2025 rally has been powered by that dynamic. Central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty and demand flows are additional tailwinds.
U.S. dollar: gold usually trades inverse to the DXY. Around the breakout date the dollar was not significantly stronger (DXY in the high-90s), which removes a major headwind for gold’s advance. If the dollar weakens further, that amplifies an upside path for gold; if the dollar rallies strongly, it increases the chance of a corrective pullback.
Scenarios (how to think about probabilities)
Bull case (highest probability while breakout holds): price follows measured-move to the ~3,800 region and then challenges the upper channel toward ~3,900–4,000 as momentum and lower real yields continue.
Base case (consolidation): a breakout retest — price dips back to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450), finds buyers, then resumes uptrend (this is healthy and common).
Bear case (pattern failure): monthly close back under the rising trendline (and below ~3,100) — that would open a deeper correction toward 2,900–2,700 and reduce the bullish edge.
Trade plan and risk management (long-term investors vs traders)
Long-term investor (multi-year): if you believe in the macro thesis (lower real yields, central bank demand), holding through volatility is reasonable; consider layering in on pullbacks to the breakout zone (~3,350–3,450) with wider stops and position sizing for multi-year exposure.
Tactical trader (swing/position): the conservative trade is to wait for a breakout retest to the former resistance (buy on confirmed support hold). Entry zone: ~3,350–3,450 with a stop below the rising trendline (e.g., below ~3,100 in the chart) and targets at measured-move (~3,800) and then the channel top (~3,900–4,000). If you prefer momentum entries, a clean monthly close above the breakout with continued follow-through on the next monthly candle is a valid trigger, but tighten stops.
Always size positions so a failure (close below the rising trendline) does not blow you out — place stop levels outside normal monthly noise.
Extra checks (what to watch next)
Watch U.S. inflation prints, Fed commentary and the 10-year real yields — those will be the largest macro switches that could change the story.
Watch DXY moves: a durable dollar rally would increase the odds of a deeper retracement.
On the chart: volume/flow confirmation on the breakout (higher volume on breakout is healthier); monthly-MA alignment (longer MAs acting as support) — these help confirm sustainability.
One-line conclusion
Monthly chart shows a classically bullish ascending-triangle breakout with a conservative measured target near ~3,800 and upside extension possible toward ~3,900–4,000 if macro drivers (falling real yields, Fed easing expectations, weak dollar) remain supportive; a monthly close back below the rising trendline (~3,100 area on the chart) would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Note
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