Gold Has Entered the Fifth Wave — A Drop Below 3800 Is PossibleGold continued its Wave-4 rebound today, but following a news catalyst, Wave-5 downward momentum began, and the market structure has become clearer. In such conditions, what traders need most is patience.
From the daily chart perspective, there still appears to be room for further downside. Based on my expectation, this decline may break below 3800. Of course, the market is always changing, and our outlook is based on probabilities — no one can guarantee the market will move exactly as expected. However, recent price action has been largely in line with our forecast, and I believe many of you have already secured profits from this move — that’s what matters.
Additionally, I will be traveling tomorrow and won’t be able to monitor the market in real time. So during your trades, please stay alert and prioritize risk control. Protect your capital first — profits will come naturally afterward. The market never lacks opportunities, so don’t sacrifice long-term stability for short-term gains.
Stay calm, stay disciplined, and trade safely!
Xauusdsetup
Gold (XAU/USD) - Daily Retracement into Fair Value Gap (FVG)Prior Bullish Move & Sharp Reversal: The chart shows a strong rally throughout late September and early October, followed by a dramatic and impulsive bearish reversal starting around October 24th.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) is clearly defined by the gray shaded box. This gap represents an area of price inefficiency created during the aggressive drop.
The price is currently trading within the lower boundary of this FVG (the current price is around $3,983.70).
CRT-L (Consequent Retracement Low): The upper line of the FVG (around $4,070) is the price level that marked the top of the range.
CRT-H (Consequent Retracement High): The lower line (around $3,935) appears to mark the 50% midpoint of the large down candle that created the FVG, or possibly a key level within the gap.
Proposed Price Action:
The current price action suggests an immediate continuation of the drop (indicated by the large green arrow) towards the CRT-H level ($3,935).
The curved black arrow suggests an alternative or subsequent scenario: the price might retest the upper part of the FVG (near $4,000) before making its eventual move.
Interpretation & Trading Bias
The overall bias is bearish due to the magnitude and speed of the recent drop.
The immediate focus of the analysis seems to be on a potential move lower to fill the remaining portion of the FVG, specifically targeting the CRT-H level. The FVG itself acts as a large zone of resistance and price mitigation. The daily timeframe suggests this drop is part of a major structural shift.
Watch for support at 3990-3980 to consider going long on gold.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold prices have repeatedly tested the 4030 level without a successful breakout. Gold has now begun to decline, with short-term bears gradually releasing their momentum. Further downside is expected, with support expected in the 3990-3980 range. If gold prices can pull back to this range in the short term, we can consider going long on gold in anticipation of a rebound. Target range: 4030-4050
echnical analysis for your XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) chart:XAU/USD (Gold) 15-Min Chart Analysis – 29 Oct 2025
Market Structure
The previous descending channel has been broken to the upside, indicating a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Price retraced back to a support level zone (≈ $3,920 – $3,940), where buyers are likely to defend.
Key Levels
Support Zone: 3,920 – 3,940
→ Price already tested this area with strong rejection wicks, showing buyer interest.
Resistance Zone: 3,980 – 4,020
→ Short-term resistance; a breakout above 4,020 confirms bullish momentum.
Target Level: 4,142
→ As marked on your chart, this is the projected bullish target after confirmation of upward continuation.
Price Action
After a downward correction, gold found support and formed a double-bottom-type pattern near the 3,940 level.
Price is currently consolidating above support, signaling potential accumulation before an upward push.
Momentum Outlook
If price holds above 3,940, expect a move towards 4,000 → 4,020, followed by a breakout to 4,142 (target).
However, if 3,920 support breaks, the price may retest 3,880–3,860, resuming short-term bearish momentum.
📈 Trading Bias
Bullish bias above 3,940 (target 4,142).
Bearish only below 3,920 (target 3,860). EURONEXT:FTI1! EURONEXT:VM81! EURONEXT:PH6X2025 EURONEXT:PH8Z2025 EURONEXT:ZT8F2026 EURONEXT:ER8Z2025 EURONEXT:UY8F2026 EURONEXT:VC8F2026 EURONEXT:ZF8F2026 EURONEXT:ZU8F2026 EURONEXT:VJ8F2026 EURONEXT:AH7X2025
XAU/USD | Testing Deeper Support ZoneYesterday’s analysis is playing out as expected — the first support zone has failed, and price is now testing the Deeper Support Zone (3,944–3,884). The continued downside momentum confirms that sellers remain firmly in control, with short-term sentiment still leaning strongly bearish.
Gold is currently trading around 3,930, holding well below both the MA50 and MA200, reinforcing ongoing downside pressure. If buyers can defend this zone and push price back above 3,987, a corrective rebound toward 4,042 and 4,095 could follow.
However, a clean break below 3,884 would likely open the door for a deeper decline toward 3,820–3,781, where dip-buyers may look to re-enter the market.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
3944
3987
4042
4095
4137
Support:
3884
3820
3781
Despite the current correction, the overall bullish trend remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a healthy correction within the broader bullish trend.
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
It’s a big week for the U.S., with the FOMC rate decision and press conference on Wednesday expected to draw most of the market’s attention.
Before that, traders will be watching Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales data today.
The backdrop remains tense with the U.S. government shutdown still unresolved, keeping overall sentiment cautious across markets.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Gold Rebounds Ahead of FOMCPrice is respecting the analysis well — after testing the Deeper Support Zone (3944–3884), gold saw a strong rejection. Price has since rebounded and is now trading around 4017, showing signs of short-term recovery after several sessions of heavy downside pressure.
Gold has reclaimed the 4000 handle and moved back above the MA50, while also breaking the 1H structure to bullish. However, price still trades below the MA200, suggesting that short-term momentum has turned bullish.
For continuation, buyers need to secure a close above 4042, which could open the path toward 4095 and 4137.
On the downside, if price fails to hold above 3987, we could see another retest of 3944–3884, the same zone where buyers previously stepped in.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4042
4095
4137
4178
Support:
3987
3944
3884
3820
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
All eyes are on the FOMC events later today, with the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and Press Conference scheduled in the evening.
GOLD Still Very Bearish , 2 Short Setups Valid To Get 500 Pips !Here is My 30 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we are Below 3972.00 With 4H Candle And this never happened for a long time ! and we have a 4H Candle closure below it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can sell after the price go back to retest the broken area 3972.00 and this will be my best place to sell to can use small stop loss , and i have another place if he price will not go up more to retest 3972.00 m we have a very good res level 3940.00 , if we have a good bearish price action when the price touch it we can sell from it and targeting 100 to 200 pips , and if the price didn`t give us a good bearish price action from it i will wait the price at 3972.00 to can sell and targeting 200 to 500 pips , if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Breakout .
2- Clear Bearish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A .
4- Bearish Control .
5- Perfect 4H Mins Closure .
XAU/USD 29 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380. 990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As expected, price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,886.456.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Bullish Head & Shoulder [10.29.2025]Hi traders, Anfibo's back!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD recently reached a new ATH near $4,400/oz, before undergoing a healthy correction back to the $3,890 support level following an exceptionally strong rally fueled by geopolitical tensions. After this retracement, gold is now consolidating around the $4,000 zone, showing signs of breaking above the descending trendline on the H1 timeframe — a signal that short-term bullish momentum may be reemerging.
From a structural standpoint, this pullback appears to be part of a technical correction within an ongoing uptrend, not a trend reversal. Currently, the market is stabilizing and setting up for a potential new wave upward. I’m personally watching for a Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation to develop — this could offer optimal Buy and Sell opportunities depending on which neckline breaks first.
I still believe gold is likely to revisit the $4,200 area soon , as long as the $3,890 support holds firm and global risk sentiment continues to favor safe-haven assets.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 4135 - 4150
SL: 4165
TP: 4045 - 4010 - 4000
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 4000 - 4010
SL: 3990
TP: 4135 - 4150 - 4200
Risk Management:
- Prioritize Buy setups following the higher-timeframe trend; Sell only for intraday scalps.
- Maintain a minimum Risk:Reward ratio of 1:2.
- Avoid entries during major geopolitical or economic announcements.
- Monitor the Head & Shoulders pattern closely — confirmation will guide the next major move.
Conclusion:
Gold has completed a healthy correction after its parabolic surge to $4,400, and the market is now regrouping around the $4,000 zone, with early signs of renewed bullish momentum. As long as $3,890 remains intact, the broader trend remains bullish, and I expect a potential rebound toward $4,200 in the near term.
Patience and precision are key here — waiting for the Head & Shoulders formation to confirm will provide the best entry signals for both sides of the market. Until then, the bias remains bullish with a short-term recovery underway.
GOODLUCK, LOVE U GUYS!
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (29/10/2025, LONDON SESSION)1. Market Overview
Gold recovered strongly from 3,918 lows, printing a clean bullish reversal overnight during Asia, now trading near 3,990–3,998.
The market structure has shifted short-term bullish after a clear CHoCH and BOS, but price is testing heavy resistance at the psychological 4,000 level and the H1 supply zone (3,995–4,013).
London session opens at a decisive point — momentum favors buyers, but a rejection at 4,000–4,013 could trigger a short-term pullback before continuation.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1):
• Price bounced from 3,918 forming a bullish rejection candle.
• RSI turning upward near 50, showing recovery strength.
• Long-term uptrend intact above the 100 EMA (3,842) but short-term correction not complete.
✅ Bias: Neutral to bullish while above 3,918.
🔹 H1:
• Market showing a confirmed CHoCH above 3,965 with bullish momentum candles.
• Currently retesting the descending trendline and 200 EMA (4,000–4,013) zone.
• RSI near 58, MACD histogram positive but slowing — possible short-term exhaustion.
⚠️ Bias: Bullish but watch for rejection at 4,000–4,013.
🔹 15M–5M:
• Clear bullish wave with strong EMA alignment (8 > 20 > 50).
• Structure forming higher highs and higher lows.
• Minor divergence appearing near 3,998, indicating potential retracement to 3,965–3,955.
🎯 View: Buy pullbacks into key retracement zones.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Swing 3,918 → 3,998)
• 38.2% = 3,972.6
• 50.0% = 3,958.6
• 61.8% = 3,945.0
🟩 Fibonacci Golden Zone: 3,958 – 3,945
Confluence: prior H1 resistance turned support + trendline retest zone.
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
• Buy Zone: 3,972 → 3,958 (Golden Zone)
• Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or CHoCH on 5M
• Targets: 3,991 → 4,004 → 4,013 → 4,030
• Stop Loss: Below 3,945
• Notes: Structure remains bullish as long as 3,945 holds.
🟥 Bearish Rejection (Countertrend)
• Sell Zone: 4,004 – 4,013 (H1 Supply + EMA Confluence)
• Confirmation: Rejection candle / Bearish divergence
• Targets: 3,974 → 3,959 → 3,945
• Stop Loss: Above 4,020
⚡ Breakout Setup
• Buy Breakout: Above 4,013 (retest holds) → Target 4,030 → 4,070
• Sell Breakout: Below 3,945 → Target 3,918 → 3,904
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• No major UK data early; focus remains on USD Index (DXY 106.2).
• US 10-year yields stabilizing; if yields drop, gold could push above 4,000.
• Market sentiment cautiously bullish ahead of mid-week U.S. news.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels (USD)
Resistance 3,998 / 4,004 / 4,013 / 4,030 / 4,074
Support 3,972 / 3,958 / 3,945 / 3,918
Golden Zone 3,958 – 3,945
Break Buy Trigger > 4,013
Break Sell Trigger < 3,945
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold shows strong intraday bullish momentum but faces resistance at 4,000–4,013.
If London retraces to 3,972–3,958, this area becomes the Golden Opportunity Zone for continuation buys.
A breakout above 4,013 confirms trend reversal to 4,030–4,074.
Failure to hold 3,945 will re-expose 3,918 lows.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
Main Bias: Bullish
Secondary Bias: Short-term sell at 4,013 only if strong rejection
Golden Zone (Buy): 3,958 – 3,945
Breaking Price: Above 4,013 for buys / Below 3,945 for sells
London Outlook: Expect minor dip, then bullish continuation if support holds.
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY PROJECTION 29.10.25It looks like you’ve uploaded a trading chart with marked levels and annotations. Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s visible:
Structure: The price had been in a downtrend, then broke the descending trendline, indicating a potential change of character.
Monthly Low Retested: The blue box labeled “MONTHLY LOW RETESTED” shows the area where price retested a previous low and found support.
Bullish Engulf Confirmed: Suggests a bullish reversal candlestick pattern forming near support.
Parallel Uptrend Channel: The two upward-sloping blue lines outline a new ascending channel, implying a short-term bullish bias.
Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: Around 3,950–3,960
Stop Loss: Below ~3,935
Take Profit / Resistance R1: Around 4,000–4,020
Bias: The chart suggests a long (buy) setup, expecting a move upward toward resistance within the parallel channel.
Would you like me to help you analyze the risk/reward ratio or validate the technical setup (e.g., confluence with higher timeframe structure or indicators)?
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,965, with the upside capped at the $3,981–$3,990 resistance zone. The chart shows a recent rejection at resistance and sellers stepping in. Unless bulls break above $3,990, the bias remains bearish with a retest of $3,923–$3,915 support zone likely.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,81–$3,989 (near resistance)
Stop Loss: $3,993
Take Profit: $3,930 / $3,915
Risk-Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.53
🌐 Macro Background
Gold is under renewed pressure as US–China trade optimism undermines safe-haven demand. U.S. President Trump said a trade deal with China could be finalized this week, which boosted market sentiment. As Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff noted: “The U.S.-China trade tensions have really diminished, with a possible trade deal later this week after a summit meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump. That’s bearish for safe-haven metals.” 【FXStreet】
On the monetary policy side, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps, lowering the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%–4.00%. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets have priced in nearly a 100% probability of this move, with further easing expected in December. While this provides some support to gold, trade optimism currently outweighs Fed dovishness.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,981 – $3,990
Support: $3,923 – $3,915
Psychological Level: $4,000
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains capped below $3,990 and is at risk of further declines toward $3,930–$3,915. Short positions near resistance are favoured, unless Fed surprises with a deeper cut or US–China trade talks collapse, which could flip sentiment.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (29/10/2025, ASIA SESSION)Gold (XAUUSD) closed the US session near 3,950 after rejecting from the descending trendline and the intraday 200EMA cap around 3,960–3,970.
The current structure shows a corrective rebound inside a broader bearish leg, with D1 still pointing down but short-term exhaustion visible around 3,885–3,900.
Asia opens with minor consolidation below resistance, setting the stage for either a continuation breakdown or a temporary pullback to 3,970–3,990 before sellers re-enter.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
Daily (D1)
• Still in a clear corrective phase after failing to hold 4,100–4,140 resistance.
• Price now hovering above the 100-day EMA at 3,842, which acts as medium-term support.
• RSI at 47 – neutral but with downside pressure.
Bias: Bearish while below 3,996; looking for retracement sell setups.
⸻
1H Chart (H1)
• Price rejected from descending trendline near 3,970–3,980.
• Currently consolidating near 3,950, with structure forming a wedge under the 50EMA and 200EMA.
• MACD histogram turning flat, RSI recovering from 27 → 45 range.
Bias: Neutral-to-bearish; a rebound toward 3,970 may offer short opportunities.
⸻
15M Chart (M15)
• Micro bullish correction from 3,886 → 3,960, now forming lower highs.
• Momentum fading near 200EMA (3,955–3,960).
• RSI oscillating around 50; MACD decreasing – indicating loss of short-term momentum.
View: Expect a liquidity sweep into 3,970–3,985, then potential sell reaction.
⸻
5M Chart (M5)
• Tight consolidation between 3,948–3,960; lower timeframe CHoCH visible.
• EMA stack is compressing, hinting at volatility buildup.
• A clean break below 3,945 could trigger a new push to 3,920/3,900.
Short-Term View: Scalpers may watch for fake-out above 3,960 or breakout below 3,945.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Last Swing: 4,019 → 3,886)
• 38.2% = 3,936
• 50% = 3,952
• 61.8% = 3,967
✅ Golden Zone = 3,952 – 3,967 → current price zone (high confluence).
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
🟥 Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias)
• Sell Zone: 3,952 – 3,970 (Fibonacci + 15M EMA confluence)
• Trigger: Bearish engulfing or 5M structure break below 3,945
• 🎯 Targets: 3,925 → 3,905 → 3,886 → 3,860
• 🛑 SL: Above 3,975–3,980
⸻
🟩 Bullish Reversal (Countertrend)
• Buy Zone: 3,910 – 3,920 (intraday demand)
• Trigger: Clear 5M CHoCH + bullish engulfing
• 🎯 Targets: 3,940 → 3,955 → 3,970
• 🛑 SL: Below 3,900
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• Asia session quiet — focus remains on USD and US yields after yesterday’s strong data.
• DXY remains elevated near 106.20 → limits upside on gold.
• Traders should anticipate low volatility early, followed by possible retracement during London buildup.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels (USD)
Resistance 3,952 / 3,970 / 3,985 / 3,996
Support 3,930 / 3,910 / 3,886 / 3,860
Golden Zone 3,952 – 3,967
Break Sell Trigger <3,945
Reversal Trigger >3,970
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold remains trapped below major EMA resistance and inside a corrective wedge.
The Golden Zone (3,952–3,967) aligns perfectly for fresh sell entries if momentum confirms.
Unless bulls reclaim 3,980+, the probability favors continuation toward 3,910 → 3,886.
Preferred Strategy:
Sell retracement from 3,952–3,970 (with confirmation).
If price breaks 3,945 → sell continuation.
Avoid buys unless 3,970 breaks and holds.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
Primary Bias: Bearish
Secondary Bias: Countertrend buy only from 3,910 support
High-Probability Zone: 3,952 – 3,967
Breakout Confirmation: Sell below 3,945
Invalidation: Above 3,980
⸻
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Gold (XAU/USD) - Bearish Reversal and Potential ContinuationPrior Uptrend: The chart clearly illustrates a strong, sustained uptrend from late September to mid-October, where the price rose consistently, making higher highs and higher lows.
Market Structure Shift (MSS): Around October 21-23, the price broke decisively below a significant previous low (the swing low marked by the MSS line, near $4,040). This event signals a likely change in market character or a Market Structure Shift, suggesting the uptrend is over and a downtrend has begun.
Impulsive Down move: Following the MSS, the price fell sharply.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): The chart highlights a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is an area of price inefficiency created during the sharp move down. This gap acts as a potential magnet or resistance zone. The price is currently near the bottom of this FVG area (around $3,930 - $3,960).
Current Price Action and Bias: The overall sentiment is bearish following the MSS. The analysis suggests the price may retrace higher into the FVG (the dashed arrow indicates a possible move into the FVG) before continuing its move lower.
Target: The TARGET is marked by a dashed horizontal line around $3,870 - $3,880. This suggests a specific price level the analyst expects the price to reach if the bearish continuation plays out.
Interpretation
This chart suggests a bearish trading opportunity based on the recent change in trend. The immediate plan seems to be to watch for a reaction within the FVG for a potential entry to short Gold, aiming for the $3,870-$3,880 target.
Why am I bearish when the market is bullish?#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
We have reminded everyone today that you can short gold in batches at key points, and now all short positions have been exited. When entering the market, it depends on the technology; when leaving the market, it depends on the mentality. Don’t be dominated by fear and greed. Profits belong to you only when you really get them in your hands. Otherwise, everything is just empty talk.
Short-term bears should not continue to participate blindly. By observing the hourly line trend, we can find that this is a typical upward trend. Therefore, bulls may still have a certain rebound momentum in the short term. But it should also be noted that there is pressure from the golden section point of 38.2%, or 3975, and it is also close to the downward trend line. Therefore, for evening trading, I think we can continue to be patient and wait, observe the performance of 3975-3990, and then consider appropriately participating in shorting gold after there is obvious pressure but it is not broken.
#XAUUSD: Massive Drop Is In Making! Bears In ControlDear all,
We are seeing significantly increased bearish volume since yesterday now we think price is likely to remain bearish for couple of days or week so price could make major correction. Please wait for price to settle down.
Good Luck
Team Setupsfx_
#XAUUSD: +6000 Pips Swing Move In Making, Patience Pays!
Gold prices have fallen sharply as the DXY has regained strength. Following the recent significant sell-off, we can anticipate the potential direction of the price. Three key targets can be considered if the price moves in our favour. The first is a nearby target at $4000 which would represent a gain of 1100 pips. Subsequent targets should be determined according to your trading plan.
There are two potential entry points; if the first is invalidated the second should be considered.
We wish you the best of luck and trade safely.
Team Setupsfx 🚀❤️
Is This the Start of Gold’s Next Major Upswing?🦸♂️ Title: XAU/USD Heist: The Golden Pullback Play (Swing/Day Trade) 💰
📈 Executive Brief (The "Why")
The shiny rock is pulling back to a key support zone! We're looking for a potential bullish continuation swing. The plan is to catch the dip as it retests a dynamic support level, aiming for a ride back up to a major resistance area. This is a classic "buy the dip" setup in a structurally strong asset.
🎯 The Trade Plan (The "How")
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold)
Bias: Bullish
Strategy: Pending Order on a Pullback
📍 Entry Zone:
YOU CAN ENTER THE MARKET AT ANY PRICE LEVEL AFTER THE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE PULLBACK @ ~3860.00
(Look for a bullish rejection candle or momentum shift confirming the bounce)
🚨 Stop Loss (The "Escape Route"):
This is thief SL @ ~3760.00
Place your SL after the breakout I mentioned price level. This level is below the recent swing low, invalidating the bullish structure if breached.
🎯 Take Profit (The "Cash Out"):
OUR target @ ~4150.00
This aligns with a strong resistance + overbought + trap is there so kindly escape with profits. We're taking profits before price potentially reverses.
⚖️ Risk & Reward Management (The Fine Print)
Note to the Thief OGs: Dear Ladies & Gentleman, I am not recommending to set only my SL & TP. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk. Manage your position size accordingly! The provided levels are a framework, not a financial command.
🌍 Related Pairs to Watch (The Intel)
TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Gold's arch-nemesis! 👊 A weaker DXY often means a stronger Gold price. Watch this for correlation cues.
$EUR/USD: The biggest component of the DXY. A strong Euro often pressures the Dollar, which can boost Gold.
$XAG/USD (Silver): Gold's volatile cousin. Often moves in the same direction but with more amplitude.
AMEX:GLD / AMEX:IAU : Gold ETF proxies; they track the physical metal's price.
Key Correlation Point: Gold is typically inversely correlated with the U.S. Dollar. Keep one eye on the Dollar Index for confirmation of your Gold trade's direction.
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ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (28/10/2025, LONDON SESSIONGold extended its bearish continuation during Asia, breaking below 3,940, confirming dominance of sellers. London opens with price sitting near 3,935–3,940, still within the bearish structure that began at 4,106.
Momentum is strongly negative, with EMAs (50/100/200) aligned downward and RSI below 40 across all intraday frames. The market remains inside a descending channel — each recovery is being sold aggressively.
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2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Fourth consecutive bearish candle confirms strong downside momentum.
• RSI (46) still neutral but leaning bearish; MACD histogram fully red.
• Price approaching potential higher-timeframe support near 3,900–3,880.
Bias: Bearish correction still in play until 3,880 or D1 reversal candle appears.
🔸 H1
• Structure: clean lower highs (4,106 → 4,048 → 3,997) and lower lows (3,971 → 3,935).
• RSI (27) deeply oversold, signaling possible micro bounce but no reversal yet.
• 100/200 EMA above at 3,990–4,040 acting as strong resistance.
Bias: Bearish below 4,000, corrective pullback likely capped at 3,995–4,010.
🔹 M15
• Extended downtrend channel remains active.
• Every minor pullback rejected under 3,950–3,960.
• MACD shows no bullish divergence yet; sellers still in control.
Bias: Sell pullbacks near resistance levels.
🔹 M5
• Micro CHoCH confirmed lower highs.
• RSI near 30 with weak attempt to rebound.
• Short-term liquidity zone forming 3,930–3,940, potential area for retest before continuation.
Bias: Bearish to neutral; short rallies only if confirmed rejection on M5–M15.
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3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis (Golden Zone)
Last H1 swing: High 4,106 → Low 3,935
• 🔸 38.2% → 3,990
• 🔸 50% → 4,009
• 🔸 61.8% → 4,028
✅ Golden Zone = 3,990 – 4,028
This zone aligns with the H1 supply area and EMA confluence, making it the optimal retracement level to rejoin the bearish trend.
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4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (High Probability)
• Entry: 3,990 – 4,028 (Golden Zone)
• Stop-Loss: 4,035 – 4,045
• Targets: 3,955 → 3,935 → 3,910 → 3,885
• Confluence: EMA cluster, Fib 61.8%, trendline resistance
• Bias: Strong short continuation if rejection occurs inside Golden Zone
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⚡ BREAKDOWN SELL
• Trigger: Clean H1 candle close below 3,930
• Entry: 3,928 – 3,935 on retest
• Stop-Loss: Above 3,945
• Targets: 3,912 → 3,900 → 3,885
• Bias: Follows continuation of bearish momentum below weak low.
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🟢 COUNTERTREND BUY (Low Probability)
• Trigger: Bullish BOS + strong engulfing candle above 3,960
• Entry: 3,960 – 3,965
• Stop-Loss: 3,940
• Targets: 3,985 → 3,995 → 4,009
• Bias: Only if London forms a liquidity sweep under 3,930 with strong reclaim.
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5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• No major Asia data; London expected to move with USD Index (DXY) flows.
• DXY above 106 favors continued gold weakness.
• Traders monitoring US GDP & PCE later this week, meaning liquidity could tighten today.
• Expect volatility spikes near London–NY overlap as large players position early.
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6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Type Price Levels
Resistance 3,960 / 3,975 / 3,990 / 4,009 / 4,028
Support 3,935 / 3,924 / 3,910 / 3,885 / 3,872
Golden Zone 3,990 – 4,028
Breakdown Trigger < 3,930
Bullish Reclaim Trigger > 3,965
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7️⃣ Analyst Summary
The bearish structure remains dominant across all timeframes. Momentum favors continuation toward 3,910–3,885, with the best entry region at 3,990–4,028 Golden Zone.
If London opens with liquidity sweeps below 3,930, wait for a quick retracement to sell at premium pricing.
Only strong reclaim above 3,965 could trigger a short-term intraday recovery to 3,990–4,009 before sellers step in again.
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8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish – Sell rallies into 3,990–4,028
📈 Secondary Bias: Bullish only above 3,965 (confirmed reclaim)
🎯 Targets: 3,955 → 3,935 → 3,910 → 3,885
✨ Golden Zone: 3,990 – 4,028
🛑 Invalidation: H1 close above 4,045
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— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 Team 🚀
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