XAUUSD Bearish Retracement Targeting $4,000 SupportContext and Trend
Prior Bullish Trend: The chart clearly shows a strong, sustained uptrend leading up to October 22nd, with the price moving from below $3,920 to a peak near $4,200.
Recent Sharp Reversal: This strong bullish move was abruptly interrupted by a massive bearish candlestick on October 22nd, indicating a sharp and significant sell-off from the high. This move marks a potential shift in the short-term momentum.
Current Price Action and Key Zones
Current Consolidation/Retracement: Since the sharp drop, the price has entered a phase of consolidation or a retracement (a move back up) within the area that saw the sharpest selling pressure.
Supply/Resistance Zone: The blue shaded rectangle, which ranges roughly from $4,080 to $4,120, is a key area. This zone represents an area where the market may have found previous support or, more likely, is now acting as a supply zone (resistance) after the large drop. Traders often look to sell when the price re-enters a zone that previously broke down quickly, anticipating fresh selling pressure.
Price Prediction (The Path): The drawn arrows indicate a predicted move:
The price moves up to test the $4,080 - $4,120 supply zone.
Upon hitting resistance, the price is expected to reverse and fall.
The predicted target for the drop is the dashed green line at $4,009.10 (a level very close to the significant psychological support level of $4,000).
Conclusion
The chart suggests a high-probability short-term selling opportunity (or "short" trade) if the price reaches the supply zone, with the trade aiming for the major support level just above $4,000. The setup is based on the technical analysis pattern of a bearish continuation after a strong impulse move down.
Xauusdsetup
Gold: Double Bottom or Five-Wave Decline?After rising to the MA60 area on the 4-hour chart, gold faced significant selling pressure, and the price has now pulled back to around 4050, which lies near the short-term support zone. Over time, the MA20 support on the daily chart has moved up to around 4055, while the MA30 currently sits near 3942.
On the 1-hour chart, the downtrend appears not yet complete, so pay attention to the next two closing candles. For now, key support levels to watch are 4014–4000, followed by 3978–3937.
If the price stabilizes around 4000, a double-bottom pattern could potentially form. However, if it falls further toward the MA30, a head-and-shoulders pattern may come into play. In case the rebound fails to break above resistance, be cautious of a five-wave decline, as that could trigger another sharp correction, with a high likelihood of filling the gap near 3887.
In terms of trading strategy, the focus should still be on finding buying opportunities.
For medium-term setups, you can hold positions patiently; for short-term intraday trades, pay close attention to the key supports mentioned above, and use the MA20/60 on the 30-minute chart as reference points for resistance.
XAUUSD (Gold): Bearish Breakdown Targets $4,028 SupportKey Observations
Prior Volatility: The period starts with a significant spike (a long red candle), indicating extreme bearish pressure followed by a recovery attempt.
Uptrend Attempt (October 22nd - 23rd): Following the sharp drop, the price began to form a series of higher highs and higher lows (indicated by the small black dots/circles), suggesting an attempted short-term recovery or uptrend. The price moved from a low near $4,020 to a high around $4,150.
Recent Reversal (October 24th): The attempted rally failed after hitting a peak around $4,150. Since that high, the price has been in a clear and aggressive downtrend, forming a series of strong bearish (red) candles.
Current Price Action & Projection: The chart shows the current price at $4,052.95 and an explicit projection (indicated by the green arrow and zig-zag line) toward the previous swing low, marked by a dotted green line at $4,028.03. This suggests that based on the current momentum, the price is expected to test this support level.
Support Level: The horizontal dotted line at $4,028.03 (or possibly the earlier low near $4,020) represents a key near-term support level.
Conclusion
The chart shows a strong bearish momentum dominating the market after a failed recovery attempt. Traders are currently anticipating a test of the support level around the $4,028 to $4,020 area.
4H see W shape. Support is not broken and it is still bullish.Although gold has experienced a temporary pullback today, we remain bullish as long as the price remains above the upward trend line. While the hourly chart shows a downward trend, with moving averages diverging downward and technical indicators like the MACD forming a death cross, it appears that bears have regained control of the market in the short term.
But from the 4H perspective, if the short-term decline continues and it can effectively rebound after touching the trend line and move out of the W-shaped structure, then gold will be expected to hit the 4135-4145 pressure again, and then gradually hit the 4160, 4200 and other periodic resistance levels until the bulls return. As time goes by, the support points on the short-term trend line are constantly moving up. If it falls back to 4050-4035, try to go long on gold in batches with light positions, and the target is 4090-4130.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Bullish Gold XAUUSD Setup: Breakout, Retest & Trade OpportunityGold is currently bullish and beginning to break market structure 📈. Price is moving toward previous highs, which may act as resistance. Ideally, I’m watching for price to push through these highs, then retest the level for a potential long opportunity ✅.
In the video, I break everything down clearly — including:
📊 Trend direction
🏛 Market structure
💹 Price action
📉 Volume profile analysis
🎯 How to plan the trade step-by-step
⚠️ This is not financial advice — educational purposes only.
XAU/USD: US/RUSSIA TENSION RISING – WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?Gold (£4,140/oz) has bounced back after a recent sharp drop from its record high. This strength is due to fresh US sanctions on Russia stirring geopolitical risk, and anticipation ahead of the key US Inflation Data (due 24/10). Fundamentals are putting a solid floor under the yellow metal.
📌 TECHNICALS & THE GAME PLAN
The Crucial Resistance: $4,180 - $4,186
Action: Look to SELL if price hits this level and shows clear signs of rejection. Only BUY for a continuation if it breaks decisively above $4,186 (The "Line in the Sand").
The 'Sweet Spot' Support: $4,085 - $4,091
Action: Bias BUY. This is the ideal area for a 'Buy The Dip' trade, supported by strong macro-fundamentals and recent buying interest.
The Safety Net (Stop-Loss): Below $4,057
If this level breaks, the pressure is on for a drop towards $4,000.
💡 VERDICT & STRATEGY
Gold is currently consolidating. Given the fierce geopolitical news flow, the best strategy is to look for long entries around that crucial support zone.
Ideal Entry: $4,085 - $4,091
Stop Loss (SL): Tight, just below $4,057
Target (TP): Aim for a re-test of $4,180
Keep your eyes peeled! And remember to watch that US Inflation figure! 🚀
#XAUUSD #Gold #ForexTrading #Geopolitics #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #Inflation #TradingStrategy #BuyTheDip #UKTraders
XAU/USD 10-23-25After the recent runup with gold it has pulled back to the 23.6 fib level on the daily timeframe and actually pushed below showing strong support in the 3975 - 4040 daily zone.
I would like to think that price will run right back up to retest the recent ATH of about 4382Gbut if I know gold in all her trickiness she will coast along at this 23.6 level then perhaps dip to the 38.2 or even the 50 then get a strong push back up to retest the high and from there probably come back down or push thru depending on macro economic and political events at that time.
Going back a few months to May of this year you can kind of see how price experienced similar behavior when it was breaking thru the 3430 - 3505 daily zone which obviously is that real push thru the previous psychological ATH level of 3500. Now history is repeating itself as we push to stay above the recent psychological ATH of 4000 towards 4500.
We shall see...
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is consolidating between $4,132 resistance and $4,091 support. Price rejected from the resistance zone and is currently sliding lower. The structure shows a potential bearish continuation if sellers defend $4,128–$4,132, with downside pressure targeting the $4,091–$4,088 zone.
📌 Trade Setup
Entry: $4,128–$4,135 (near resistance rejection)
Stop Loss: $4,135
Take Profit: $4,091 → $4,088
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.26
🌍 Macro Background
Gold remains under pressure as traders focus on U.S. CPI data (Sep) due later today, expected at 3.1% YoY. Renewed USD demand and seasonal demand slowdown after India’s Diwali festival are capping upside momentum. However, safe-haven flows could reemerge amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and US-China trade talks set during the APEC summit. The Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25bps in November and December, which provides medium-term support.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $4,128 – $4,132
Support Zone: $4,091 – $4,088
Breakout Levels: Above $4,140 = bullish invalidation, Below $4,085 = continuation lower
📋 Trade Summary
The bias remains bearish intraday below $4,132 resistance. CPI data and trade headlines may cause volatility spikes. Short positions near resistance offer better R:R as long as $4,135 is not breached.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold is trading around 4121, consolidating after a modest recovery from the 4075 support zone. Price is currently caught between the MA50 and MA200, showing signs of indecision as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control.
While the broader uptrend remains structurally intact, short-term momentum is still bearish to neutral, with gold struggling to close above the 4151 resistance. A decisive break above 4151 could pave the way for a corrective rally toward 4192 and 4227, where the MA200 may act as dynamic resistance.
On the downside, if gold fails to hold above 4117, another retest of 4075 is likely. A clean break below this level could extend weakness into 4020, with 3984–3953 marking the deeper support base where dip-buyers are expected to become active again.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4151
4192
4227
4279
Support:
4117
4075
4044
4020
3984
🔎 Fundamental focus:
Even though gold is under short-term pressure, the overall trend is still healthy. Uncertainty in the global economy continues to support gold, and many traders see price drops toward key support levels as good buying opportunities.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (24/10/2025, ASIA)Gold (XAUUSD) closed NY around 4,120–4,126 after rebounding from the 4,070–4,090 intraday liquidity shelf, showing a clear recovery structure from the prior US session dip. Into Asia, price is now trading near 4,123–4,126, just under the descending H1 resistance / MA confluence. Momentum has turned positive intraday, but price remains in a potential lower high region unless bulls can reclaim 4,143–4,154. Asia will determine whether this is a corrective pullback inside a broader down-leg or the start of a higher-low recovery leg.
⸻
🔍 1. Market Overview
• Price rebounded strongly during late US, suggesting buyers defended sub-4,090 levels.
• Current positioning is mid-structure, below major H1/H4 EMAs, suggesting recovery but not confirmed bullish reversal.
• Asia likely to range or extend recovery toward key resistance zones before directional decision into London.
⸻
🧭 2. Technical Breakdown
📅 Daily Chart (D1)
• Strong bearish correction from 4,38x, followed by stabilization above 4,100.
• Price currently rejecting lower and forming potential daily wick.
• RSI ~59, showing room higher if momentum sustains.
• MACD still above zero but tightening → awaiting confirmation candle.
✅ Bias: Neutral-to-mild recovery within macro bullish context.
⸻
⏳ 1H Chart (H1)
• Price rebounded from strong demand at ~4,070, set higher low, rallied toward 4,126 (current) but still below 4,150+ EMA confluence (yellow/white bands).
• Descending resistance line still active.
• RSI ~52, turning up.
• MACD turning positive but recovery unconfirmed until above 4,143+.
✅ Bias: Recovery phase but facing resistance – bulls need break above 4,143–4,154 to confirm higher low structure.
⸻
📉 30M Chart (M30)
• Clear BOS to upside after breakout from consolidation.
• Mid-term EMA support now rising from ~4,107–4,110.
• However, recent rejection candle printed near resistance area.
✅ Bias: Pullback possible unless 4,110 holds.
⸻
⏱️ 15M Chart (M15)
• Price has tapped resistance zone ~4,126–4,130 multiple times.
• Micro structure remains bullish from 4,070, but consolidation forming.
• MACD shows deceleration; RSI flattening near 60.
✅ Bias: Short-term accumulation/consolidation, waiting for breakout or rejection.
⸻
📍 5M Chart (M5)
• Micro rejection from white MA cluster around 4,126.
• Short-term support near 4,114–4,110.
• If 4,110 fails, fast liquidity drop to 4,098–4,090 likely.
✅ Bias: Micro bullish but losing momentum at resistance.
⸻
✨ 3. Fibonacci Golden Zone (H1 Impulse)
Last confirmed impulse: Low 4,070 → High 4,126
• 38.2% = 4,105
• 50% = 4,098
• 61.8% = 4,091
✅ Golden Zone = 4,105 – 4,091 (Ideal long area if pullback occurs and bullish confirmation appears).
⸻
🎯 4. High-Probability Scenarios
✅ Bullish Continuation Setup (Preferred if pullback occurs)
🔹 Buy Zone: 4,105–4,098 (core entry) or deeper 4,091
🎯 Targets: 4,126 → 4,143 → 4,154 → 4,168
🛑 SL: Below 4,083 or safer below 4,070.
✅ Bullish Breakout Setup (Momentum)
🔹 Buy on breakout + retest above: 4,126–4,130
🎯 Targets: 4,143 → 4,154 → 4,168
🛑 SL: Back inside 4,115.
⸻
⚠️ Bearish Reaction Setup (Sell at resistance)
🔹 Sell Zone: 4,143–4,154 (EMA confluence + descending trendline)
🎯 Targets: 4,126 → 4,110 → 4,098 → 4,091
🛑 SL: Above 4,160–4,165.
⛔ Bearish Breakdown Setup (Trend continuation lower)
🔹 Sell below retest of: 4,091
🎯 Targets: 4,070 → 4,058 → 4,046 → 4,024
🛑 SL: Above 4,105.
⸻
📅 5. Fundamental Watch – Asia Session
• No high-impact Asian data – flow & positioning-driven.
• DXY mildly neutral – may allow gold extension.
• Markets may stay cautious ahead of London session and FOMC sentiment later.
• A quiet Asia session often respects fib zones & micro structure.
⸻
📍 6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels
🔼 Resistance 4,126 / 4,130 / 4,143 / 4,154–4,168
🔽 Support 4,114–4,110 / 4,105 / 4,098 / 4,091 (Golden Zone)
⚠ Reversal Zone 4,143–4,154
📉 Breakdown Level 4,091
🎯 Golden Zone 4,105 – 4,091
⸻
📌 7. Analyst Summary
Gold is currently in an intraday recovery phase, but still trading below significant H1 resistance & EMAs. The structure favors bullish continuation only if pullbacks into 4,105–4,098 hold or if price breaks and sustains above 4,130–4,143. A failure to break resistance and a drop below 4,091 would expose deeper retracement into 4,070 / 4,058.
⸻
✅ 8. Final Bias Summary
Condition Strategy
✅ Above 4,130 (confirmed) Bullish → aim for 4,143 / 4,154
✅ Bounce from 4,105–4,098 Buy pullback → target 4,126+
⚠ Rejection 4,143–4,154 Sell reaction → target 4,110 / 4,098
⛔ Below 4,091 (retest) Bearish → target 4,070 / 4,058
📍Golden Zone (Buy Opportunity): 4,105 – 4,091
📍Breakout Confirmation: Above 4,130
📍Breakdown Confirmation: Below 4,091
⸻
🥇 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – PERFORMANCE 23/10/2025 🥇
📊 GOLD TRADE RESULTS:
❌ BUY –40 pips (SL)
🔻 SELL +210 pips
⚖️ BUY LIMIT – BE
🔻 SELL +210 pips
🟢 BUY +210 pips
❌ BUY –60 pips (SL)
🟢 BUY +30 pips
🟢 BUY +100 pips
🟢 BUY +520 pips
🟢 BUY +210 pips
---
💰 TOTAL GOLD PIPS WON: ✅ +1,390 pips
📈 RESULT: 10 Signals → 7 Wins | 2 SL | 1 BE
🎯 WIN RATE (on executed trades): 78%
---
🔥 Strong momentum continuation with powerful upside breakouts delivering big gains 📈💎
👏 Congratulations if you profited! ✅✅✅🚀🚀🚀
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold remains under downside pressure after failing to hold above the 4151 resistance yesterday, with price now trading around 4104. The metal continues to trade below both the MA50 and MA200, confirming that short-term momentum remains bearish within a broader corrective phase.
If buyers can reclaim 4117 and 4151, a corrective bounce toward 4192 and 4227 may follow. However, failure to defend 4075 could trigger another wave of selling toward 4020, and potentially deeper into the 3984-3953 zone, where fresh demand could start building up.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4117
4151
4192
4227
Support:
4075
4044
4020
3984
🔎 Fundamental focus:
Gold continues to trade under macro uncertainty as the U.S. government shutdown drags on, delaying major data releases and weighing on investor confidence. The lack of economic transparency has led to erratic price swings, while persistent U.S.–China trade tensions and weaker manufacturing sentiment add further risk aversion.
Weekly Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold vs. Dollar)Weekly Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold vs. Dollar)
Weekly Scenarios
Bullish scenario: Gold holds the ~$4,000 zone and breaks through ~$4,200 → next target in the range of ~$4,500–4,700.
Consolidation: Price moves between ~$4,000 and ~$4,200, forming a base for the next impulse.
Bearish scenario: Break below ~$4,000 with volume and a change in structure → possible decline to ~$3,900 or lower.
✅ Conclusion
For the coming week, the technical picture for XAU/USD remains moderately bullish, but with a high degree of risk:
Holding support at ~$4,000 and breaking resistance at ~$4,200 could trigger a significant rally.
A break below ~$4,000 is a signal for caution and a potential correction. It's important for traders to react to volumes, breakout confirmations, and price behavior at designated levels.
Gold:Perfectly confirms the prediction🎉Today's gold trend is in perfect alignment with the key levels we preset, and the upper resistance range has exerted a significant suppressing effect.
✔We clearly indicated in the morning that "attention should be paid to the upper resistance around 4,135–4,150". In the actual market movement, spot London gold hit a daily high of 4,154.52, which just tested the upper edge of this resistance range before fluctuating under pressure. It finally traded around 4,130 and never broke through the 4,150 resistance ceiling throughout the day.
✔Meanwhile, although it dipped to an intraday low of 4,065.47, this level fell entirely within our preset support range of 4,060–4,070. The price then rebounded quickly, which confirms the supporting effect around this zone. The overall trading rhythm is completely consistent with the core logic of our prediction.
GOLD BREAK AND RETEST RECOVERY TOWARDS $4270 Overall Structure
The chart shows a rising channel pattern (ascending parallel channel) that gold had been trading within for several days.
Recently, price broke below the channel, found support, and is now retracing upward toward potential resistance levels.
🧭 Key Observations
1. Trend Context
Previous trend: Bullish, as seen from the steady higher highs and higher lows inside the yellow channel.
Recent move: Sharp bearish breakout below the channel, followed by a strong recovery bounce.
Current structure: Gold is attempting to retest the lower boundary of the broken channel — a common “break and retest” setup.
2. Support Zone
The green arrow marks the support zone around $4,018–$4,040, where the last drop reversed sharply.
This area held as strong de…
📊 Trading Outlook
Bias: Short-term bullish recovery within a medium-term corrective structure.
Buy zone: Above $4,140–$4,150 with confirmation candle.
Targets: $4,206 / $4,253 / $4,271.
Stop-loss: Below $4,100 (for short-term trades).
Gold May Form a Bull Trap Before Another DropUnder the current strong bearish sentiment, gold has filled the gap around 4019 and touched the MA20 support on the 1D chart, followed by a strong rebound of over $150. After reaching the MA10 near 4160, the price pulled back again and is now trading below 4100.
On the 4H chart, the downtrend remains intact, with psychological support around the MA30 (near 3910). If bearish momentum continues during the U.S. session, a move toward this support level cannot be ruled out.
Personally, I expect gold to first test resistance around 4180–4200 or even 4250, forming a potential bull trap before another leg down. However, if supported by positive news and strong volume, the market could reverse and push prices back above 4300.
Moreover, if the price truly dips into the 3950–3910 range, I see it as a great opportunity for long positions — one I definitely won’t miss!
Of course, this is just my personal view. Ultimately, we should always follow the actual price action and trade cautiously, managing risk wisely.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (23/10/2025, US SESSION)Gold is consolidating near 4,110–4,115 after attempting a bullish recovery from yesterday’s dip. Current PA is compressing within a minor intraday wedge under key dynamic resistance (H1 200EMA). The US session is likely to determine whether gold continues its bullish correction toward 4,150–4,162 or loses momentum and re-tests liquidity zones below 4,098–4,083.
⸻
📈 Market Overview
• Recent bullish recovery but still trading below major H1 protections.
• Buyers attempting to hold above 4,110, forming higher lows since early London.
• Sellers are defending resistance around 4,126–4,132, aligned with descending structure.
• Momentum mildly bullish but weakening — breakout decision likely in US volatility.
⸻
🧠 Technical Breakdown
📅 Daily (D1)
• Still in macro bullish uptrend, recent rejection candle confirmed lower wick buying.
• Current candle showing attempt to recover after heavy retracement.
• RSI holding around 59 — neutral but leaning recovery.
• Failure to climb above 4,150 today risks another bearish D1 candle.
⏳ 1H (H1)
• CHoCH confirmed from previous bearish swing, but price is still under key EMAs.
• Trading just below H1 200EMA (approx. 4,150–4,153) — a critical supply zone.
• Multiple rejections around 4,125–4,132, signaling short-term resistance.
• RSI ~53, balanced but slightly bullish.
• MACD histogram showing steady green momentum but starting to flatten.
📍Conclusion: US session needs a breakout above 4,132 or a strong retest to confirm direction.
🕒 30M
• Price consolidating in a tightening wedge.
• 200EMA overhead at 4,150 acting as session ceiling.
• MACD still green but declining — buyers losing steam.
• A break below wedge support (~4,104–4,106) may trigger corrective wave.
📉 15M–5M
• M15: Sideways structure; BOS previously bullish but now stalling.
• M5: Shows liquidity sweeps & quick rejections near 4,126 zone.
• Buyers holding structure above 4,110, but momentum slowing.
📍Scalp buyers may wait for retracement or bullish engulfing confirmation.
⸻
📐 Fibonacci Golden Zone (Last Impulse: 4,088 → 4,137)
🔸 38.2% → 4,119
🔸 50% → 4,113
🔸 61.8% → 4,106
✅ Golden Buy Zone: 4,119–4,106
⚠ If 4,106 breaks decisively, deeper pullback to 4,098–4,083 liquidity pocket is likely.
⸻
🎯 High-Probability Trade Scenarios
✅ Bullish Continuation (Preferred if zone holds)
📍Buy Zone: 4,119–4,106 (Fib confluence + bullish PA confirmation)
🎯 TP1 4,126 | TP2 4,132 (local high) | TP3 4,148 | TP4 4,159 (H1 200EMA)
🛑 SL below 4,102
⚡ Aggressive Breakout Buy
📍Trigger: Break & close M15 above 4,132
🎯 TP1 4,148 | TP2 4,153 | TP3 4,162 | TP4 4,168
🛑 SL below 4,125
🔻 Bearish Reversal from Supply (Only if clear rejection at 4,132–4,148)
📍Entry: Bearish engulfing/confirmation at 4,132–4,148
🎯 TP1 4,119 | TP2 4,113 | TP3 4,106 | TP4 4,098–4,083
🛑 SL above 4,153
📉 Breakdown Sell (Stronger correction case)
📍Trigger: Clean break below 4,106
🎯 TP1 4,098 | TP2 4,087 | TP3 4,071–4,058
🛑 SL above 4,113
⸻
📅 Fundamental Watch – US Session
• US jobless claims & mid-tier USD data may fuel volatility.
• DXY strength could cap gold upside near 4,148.
• If US yields fall, gold may break 4,132 strongly.
⸻
📍 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,126–4,132 / 4,148–4,153 / 4,162
Support: 4,119 / 4,113 / 4,106 / 4,098 / 4,083
Trendlines:
🔻 Descending resistance capping at 4,132
🔺 Ascending intraday support at 4,110
⸻
🧾 Analyst Summary
Gold is coiling for a directional move during US session. Buyers still maintain short-term structure as long as price holds above 4,106–4,110. A bullish breakout above 4,132 may fuel an impulsive move into H1 supply at 4,148–4,159. However, repeated rejections could cause a deeper correction to 4,098–4,083 before any further bullish attempt.
⸻
📌 Final Bias Summary
✅ Bias: Mildly bullish above 4,106
⚠️ Rejection at 4,132 = short-term sell wave
📍 Buy dips > 4,106 | Strong buy only above 4,132
📍 Sell only on confirmed rejection or breakdown below 4,106
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 Team 🚀
⸻
The trend line is not broken and the medium to long term is bull
Good morning, bros. Gold has fallen from its high of 4380, dropping nearly $380. This significant drop is relatively rare in the past six months. However, judging from the 4H cycle trend, the current gold price is still above the rising trend line. The 4000 mark is a defensive point for bulls. The decline will only continue after successfully breaking through 4000. Yesterday, the lowest point only retreated to around 4015-4005 before it began to rebound. Although it did not provide us with an ideal entry opportunity, it also confirmed the determination of the buyers below to hold on to the 4000 mark. Therefore, until a clear break below the trend line is achieved, our bullish outlook remains unchanged.
The gold price rebounded to around 4135 during the day and then fell back. As I told you yesterday, this position is a relatively dense trading area. I believe the current decline is the market accumulating strength to hit yesterday's rebound high, and it also provides us with a good opportunity to enter the long market. Pay attention to 4110-4100 below. If it retreats to this range, you can try to go long on gold in batches. The first target can continue to look at 4135-4145.
OANDA:XAUUSD
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (23/10/2025, LONDON SESSION)Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,125–4,132 after a sharp pre-London rally that broke the M30 descending trendline and printed a BOS on M15. Price tapped the M15 200-EMA / yellow band and the local swing high (4,132–4,138), then paused with RSI(15m) ≈ 70 → early overextension. H1 shows a constructive recovery, but the H1 200-EMA cluster sits higher at ~4,153–4,159, marking today’s first major supply.
⸻
🔍 Technical Outlook
Daily Chart (D1)
• Bullish response candle after the two-day liquidation; price defended the 4,00x shelf.
• Price remains above 20/50-DMA → macro uptrend intact, in corrective rebound.
• RSI ~59, turning up; MACD easing higher (momentum rebuilding).
Bias: Bullish rebound within broader uptrend.
⸻
1H Chart (H1)
• Clear intraday base at 4,004–4,024; successive higher lows into London.
• CHoCH printed; price now pressing the H1 50/100-EMA band and eyeing H1 200-EMA ~4,153–4,159.
• MACD rising from deep negative; RSI mid-50s → room higher before overbought.
Intraday Bias: Bullish while above 4,110–4,114; watch reaction at 4,148–4,159.
⸻
15M Chart (M15)
• Clean BOS through intra-range highs; impulsive leg 4,088.9 → 4,137.7 hit the M15 200-EMA and paused.
• RSI peaked ~70 (overbought); MACD strong but flattening → likely shallow pullback before next attempt.
Short-term View: Buy dips toward 4,119–4,106, or buy a clean breakout >4,138.
⸻
5M Chart (M5)
• Micro descending cap from the spike high; structure still higher-lows above 4,120–4,122.
• MACD easing; first support at the 5M MA stack 4,118–4,121, deeper pivot 4,112–4,114.
⸻
✨ Fibonacci Golden Zone
A) Intraday (M15 leg 4,088.9 → 4,137.7)
• 38.2% = 4,119
• 50.0% = 4,113
• 61.8% = 4,106
✅ Golden Zone (M15) = 4,119–4,106 → prime London dip-buy area.
B) H1 swing (4,004 → 4,137.7)
• 38.2% = 4,086–4,087
• 50.0% = 4,071
• 61.8% = 4,058
✅ Golden Zone (H1) = 4,071–4,058 (deeper discount if London retraces hard).
⸻
🎯 High Probability Scenarios
Bullish Continuation Setup (Preferred)
✅ Buy 1: 4,119–4,113–4,106 (M15 Golden Zone) on bullish rejection/engulfing.
🎯 TPs: 4,126 (fill) → 4,132–4,138 (weak high) → 4,148–4,153 (first supply) → 4,159
🛑 SL: below 4,102 (or structural low of entry leg)
✅ Buy 2 – Break & Retest: Above 4,138/4,140 (clean 5–15M close & retest).
🎯 TPs: 4,148–4,153 → 4,159 → stretch 4,168
🛑 SL: back inside 4,132
⸻
Bearish Correction / Fade Setup
⚠️ Sell 1 (Rejection): 4,148–4,159 (H1 200-EMA cluster / supply) with clear rejection wick or bearish engulfing.
🎯 TPs: 4,132 → 4,119 → 4,113/4,106
🛑 SL: above 4,162–4,166
📉 Sell 2 – Breakdown: Below 4,106 (loss of 61.8% of M15 leg) or aggressive below 4,096 (EMA stack).
🎯 TPs: 4,087 → 4,071–4,058 (H1 Golden Zone) → 4,046
🛑 SL: back above 4,113
⸻
📅 Fundamental Outlook – London Session
• Calendar light in EU morning; technicals lead.
• Watch DXY drift—soft dollar supports continuation higher; spike in DXY caps rallies near 4,148–4,159.
• US headlines later can inject volatility—don’t overstay at supply.
⸻
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 4,132–4,138 (weak high) / 4,148–4,153–4,159 (H1 200-EMA supply) / 4,168
Support: 4,126/4,122 (intra) / 4,119–4,113–4,106 (M15 Fib zone) / 4,096 / 4,087 / 4,071–4,058 (H1 Fib zone)
⸻
✅ Summary
London opens with bullish momentum after a confirmed M15/M30 breakout. The highest-quality long is a dip buy into 4,119–4,106 (M15 Golden Zone) with confirmation, targeting a sweep of 4,132–4,138 and a test of the H1 200-EMA supply 4,148–4,159.
If price reclaims 4,138–4,140, momentum continuation is favored.
Failure at 4,148–4,159 or a break below 4,106 shifts bias to a corrective leg into 4,087 → 4,071–4,058.
Break Confirmation:
• Buy above 4,138–4,140 (retest)
• Sell below 4,106 (retest)
Golden Zones: 4,119–4,106 (M15) and 4,071–4,058 (H1).
Gold's Historic Crash! MSS $4195: Waiting for SELL at $4185📰 CONTEXT (FUNDAMENTAL)
Gold suffered its sharpest drop since 2013 after hitting a record $4,398. The decline was mainly due to technical profit-taking, not major macroeconomic events. Long-term fundamental factors (inflation, uncertainty) still support Gold, but a short-term correction is necessary.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (1H Chart)
MSS Confirmed: Price made a strong break (Breakout) of the crucial support at $4,195 - $4,200. This zone has now flipped to become New Resistance (The ideal SELL zone).
The market is currently in a Technical Pullback phase.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN
The preference is to SELL at the Resistance re-test zone, aligned with the new market structure.
1. SELL Strategy (Pro-structure Trade)
SELL ZONE: $4183 - 4185
SL (Stop Loss): $4193
TP (Take Profit): $4175 - 4165 - 4155 - 4145
2. BUY Strategy (Counter-trend Scalp)
BUY ZONE: $4060 - 4055
SL (Stop Loss): $4030
TP (Take Profit): $4091 - 4114 - 4185
🔥 Expert Action: Wait for the price to pull back to the $4183 - 4185 zone to look for a SELL (Short) setup with a favorable R:R ratio.
Always remember to manage risk (SL 1-2% of capital).
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