Gold pullbacks present buying opportunities.The gold pullback has ended, with a steady rebound after retracing to the 4000 psychological level, forming an upward trend.
Therefore, the strategy should focus on buying, following the mainstream trend.
From the current price action, the 4100 resistance level has been broken and has now become support. The Fibonacci retracement level also shows the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement is around 4092.
The 1-hour moving average for gold has turned upwards, indicating continued upward momentum. After breaking and stabilizing above 4100, gold is now steadily rising on the 1-hour chart. The 4090 area has formed short-term support, and a pullback to the 4090-4100 range presents a buying opportunity.
Therefore, we simply need to wait for a pullback to the 4090-4100 range to buy.
I personally believe the US session will provide such an opportunity.
Xauusdsetup
Gold RalliesToday, after the Asian session opened, gold did not continue the previous day’s downward trend but oscillated upward overall. This shows that after a short adjustment at the opening, bullish momentum has once again taken the upper hand, with strong market absorption capacity.
The key support level for today is 4025 - 4030, and the strong support remains the 4000 integer mark. A break below this level may trigger panic selling in the market.
For the upper resistance, we focus on 4120. If it breaks through smoothly, we expect it to surge towards the 4150 - 4180 range.
Buy 4080 - 4085
SL 4070
TP 4100 - 4110 - 4120
Sell 4120 - 4125
SL 4135
TP 4090 - 4080 - 4070
GOLD Breakout Done , Long Setup Valid To Get 300 Pips !Here is My 15 Min Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , the price going up very good and we have a 4H Candle closure above our Res 4100.00 And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy after the price go back to retest the broken area 4100.00 For the first time and hope it will give us a good chance to enter with good stop loss , and we can be targeting 100 to 300 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Breakout .
2- Clear Bullish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A .
4- The Price Take The Last High .
5- Perfect 4H Closure .
Gold Trade Set Up Nov 19 2025Gold is trading above PDH and has shifted to bullish structure now making HH/HL on the 1h and has filled the 4h FVG already, so i want to first see a test of 1h demand and/or 75 fib to then looking for internal 5m-15m bullish engulfing candle and CISD to take price higher to BSL
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (19/11/2025, US SESSION)1. Market Overview
Gold enters the US session around $4,115–$4,120, continuing its bullish advance from London after breaking above the H1 descending channel. The current move pushes directly into a major liquidity pocket + intraday resistance zone, increasing the probability of a corrective pullback before any continuation.
Overall trend remains bullish above $4,095, but momentum is slowing at resistance.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Price bounces strongly from the $4,000–$4,030 demand zone.
• RSI recovering from mid-50s, suggesting momentum rebuild.
• Structure remains bullish as long as price holds above $4,030.
• Key daily resistance: $4,119 → $4,145 → $4,181.
🔹 H1
• Price broke the H1 descending trendline and retested it successfully.
• Price now facing a dense H1 supply between $4,119–$4,125.
• Holding above the 100EMA + 200EMA cluster = bullish strength.
• A clean break of $4,125 opens path toward $4,140–$4,156.
🔹 15M–5M
• Clear bullish structure with multiple BOS and CHoCH confirmations off $4,078–$4,086.
• RSI showing overbought conditions near session highs → pullback likely.
• MACD remains bullish but histogram weakening—momentum cooling slightly.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing:
Low: $4,072
High: $4,119
• 38.2% → $4,108
• 50.0% → $4,096
• 61.8% → $4,088
🎯 Golden Zone: $4,108–$4,088
Best area for a bullish continuation if US session retraces.
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
✅ BUY Scenario (Main Bias)
Buy zone:
→ $4,108–$4,102
or
→ Golden Zone: $4,108–$4,088
Targets:
🎯 $4,125
🎯 $4,132
🎯 $4,145
🎯 $4,156
Stop Loss:
🛑 Below $4,095
Confirmation:
• 5M–15M bullish CHoCH
• Rejection wicks at 4,108 or deeper Golden Zone retest
⸻
✅ BUY Breakout Setup
Trigger: Break & close above $4,125
Retest: $4,119–$4,121
Targets:
🎯 $4,132
🎯 $4,145
🎯 $4,156
Stop Loss:
🛑 Below $4,110
⸻
⚠️ SELL Scenario (Countertrend Only)
Sell zone: $4,119–$4,125 (major intraday supply + liquidity)
Targets:
🎯 $4,112
🎯 $4,108
🎯 $4,096 (Fib 50%)
Stop Loss:
🛑 Above $4,132
Confirmation:
• 5M/15M bearish engulfing
• RSI divergence at highs
⸻
⚠️ SELL Breakout Setup
Trigger: Break below $4,095
Retest: $4,098–$4,100
Targets:
🎯 $4,088
🎯 $4,078
🎯 $4,066
Stop Loss:
🛑 Above $4,102
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• US Session may bring volatility from FOMC Minutes later.
• Dollar Index holds steady; a dip could fuel a breakout above $4,125.
• If yields rise, expect a pullback back to the Golden Zone.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,119 / 4,125 / 4,132 / 4,145 / 4,156
Support: 4,108 / 4,102 / 4,096 / 4,088 / 4,078
Golden Zone: 4,108 – 4,088
Break Buy Trigger: > 4,125
Break Sell Trigger: < 4,095
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold remains bullish above $4,102–$4,108, with continuation likely after a pullback.
Best opportunities are buying the retrace into the Golden Zone or a breakout above $4,125.
Only a break below $4,095 shifts sentiment bearish for the session.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
🔵 Bullish bias above $4,102
🔴 Bearish only below $4,095
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Gold Roadmap => Short-termGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is currently moving below the Support zone($4,053 – $4,025) , but given the cluster of supports ahead , we can consider this beak is a fake break .
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that gold has completed its wave 5 near the support lines , and we can anticipate a corrective upward movement .
Also, we can observe positive Regular Divergence (RD+) in consecutive valleys.
I expect Gold to rise to the Resistance zone($4,125 – $4,097) in the next step after breaking the Resistance lines and confronting the $4,073 level .
First Target: $4,091
Second Target: $4,113
Stop Loss(SL): $3,987
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan — Critical Resistance AheadGold has shown a strong recovery from the Support Zone, reclaiming the 50MA and breaking above the 4078 resistance, which has now flipped into support. Price is currently trading around 4095, but the 200MA is acting as immediate resistance.
For buyers to continue higher, we need a clean break above 4115, the next key resistance. A confirmed break above this level would open the path toward 4170 and 4232.
If price fails to clear 4115, we could see a rejection back toward the 4078–4053 immediate support area. A break below that zone would expose a deeper pullback into the Support Zone again.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4115
4170
4232
Support:
4078
4053
4027
3996
🔎Fundamental Focus:
The key event today is the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which could spark volatility depending on whether the tone appears more hawkish or dovish. Traders will be watching closely for clues on upcoming policy direction.
Gold Near 4100: Breakout or Reversal?As of now, gold is maintaining a steady upward consolidation, with the price briefly approaching 4100—well in line with expectations. Most traders should have captured this wave of profit. The next focus is whether gold can break above the 4100 resistance zone. Based on the 4H chart structure, the market still shows potential for an upside breakout.
In the U.S. session, several key speeches and the FOMC meeting minutes will be released, which could trigger significant volatility. If your account is not in ideal condition, make sure to manage risk in advance.
From a technical perspective, the major short-term resistance remains the 4110–4114 area. If the news supports the bullish side, the price could extend toward 4136–4150, and with the boost from tomorrow’s NFP data, a test of 4200 is also possible.
However, if sentiment favors the bears, gold may fall back toward 4000, with further supports at 3980 and 3940/3896.
Overall, from tonight’s U.S. session to tomorrow’s NFP release, the market is entering another period of heightened volatility—full of both risks and opportunities. If you cannot react to rapid price swings, it’s safer to wait for a selling opportunity after an upward spike or a buying opportunity after a pullback, and avoid chasing highs or panic selling at lows.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,070–4,075, stuck in a short-term range between a capped Resistance Zone at $4,079–4,089 and a Support Zone at $4,034–4,045.
Price has repeatedly failed to close above the $4,080 area, forming a series of lower intraday highs against that resistance band. At the same time, buyers are defending the $4,044 area, but bounces are getting shallower, hinting at fading upside momentum.
As long as price stays below $4,079–4,089, the intraday structure favours a sell-the-rally setup back toward support. A clean break and close above $4,092–4,100 would invalidate the bearish bias and signal that bulls are regaining control.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Sell near resistance, targeting a move back into the support zone.
Direction: Short (sell)
Entry: $4,079 – $4,089 (retest of resistance zone)
Stop Loss: $4,093 (above recent swing highs / resistance band)
Take Profit 1: $4,045
Take Profit 2: $4,035
Risk–Reward Ratio: 1 : 3.48
Bias: Intraday bearish below $4,079–4,089.
A sustained move above $4,100 would invalidate this setup and shift focus back to the topside.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold has bounced back above $4,050, trading near $4,070 as risk-off sentiment returns ahead of the long-delayed batch of US economic data. FXStreet notes that “Gold price attracts some buyers to around $4,070, snapping the three-day losing streak… as traders brace for the long-awaited return of US economic data.”【FXStreet】
Key macro drivers:
Delayed NFP & Data Uncertainty:
The September and October NFP reports were postponed during the US government shutdown. September NFP is now due Thursday, with markets looking for around 50,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%. A weaker-than-expected print would likely pressure the USD and support gold, while a stronger report could reinforce the recent dollar rebound and weigh on XAU/USD.
Fed Signalling Caution, Not Panic:
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the Fed should proceed “slowly” with further rate reductions.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Schmid flagged persistent inflation risks and signalled comfort with holding rates steady.
Their tone has tempered expectations of a December cut.
Market Pricing:
According to CME FedWatch, markets now price roughly a 46.6% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, down from more than 60% a week earlier, reflecting less dovish expectations.
Overall, macro factors are mixed: risk-off flows and data uncertainty lend support to gold, but hawkish Fed commentary and reduced cut odds cap the upside. Against a well-defined technical resistance zone, this combination supports a short-term bearish, sell-rally stance on the intraday chart.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $4,079 – $4,089
Support Zone: $4,034 – $4,045
📌 Trade Summary
XAU/USD is capped beneath $4,079–4,089 while support is clustered around $4,034–4,045. With Fed officials sounding cautious rather than aggressively dovish and December cut odds drifting lower, rallies into resistance look vulnerable.
The preferred approach is to sell into strength near $4,079–4,089 with stop loss around $4,092, targeting a drop back toward $4,045–4,035 ahead of Thursday’s NFP release. A daily close above $4,100 would invalidate the intraday bearish view.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
BTCUSD: Consolidates Under PressureBTCUSD has extended its recent correction, presenting a low-range consolidation pattern under pressure. Bulls and bears are engaging in a tug-of-war around key support levels, with no clear one-sided direction emerging.
Immediate support has formed near the 91,000 level, while the more critical lifeline support lies at 90,500. A breakdown below this level could trigger a deep pullback. On the upside, short-term resistance is concentrated in the 95,000-96,000 range,the primary target to overcome for any rebound, as a breakout here is necessary to further open up upside momentum.
Overall, the current market sentiment remains sluggish, but there is rebound potential from a technical perspective. In the short term, the asset is likely to maintain a low-range consolidation trend.
Buy 91000 - 91500
SL 90000
TP 93000 - 94000 - 95000
Sell 95000 - 96000
SL 96500
TP 93000 - 92000 - 91000
Gold: 4000 Support TestGold extended yesterday’s correction today, showing a significant decline amid oscillatory pressure, with some support found near the $4,000 mark. After surging to a high of $4,101.76 yesterday, gold plunged sharply, and this downward correction has continued to gather momentum on the 18th.
Previously, a head-and-shoulders top pattern formed on the 4-hour chart of gold, indicating an inherent technical correction demand. Furthermore, the pullback from yesterday’s high created a clear short-term bearish pressure signal, and today’s decline represents a further digestion of these negative technical cues.
Currently, the market is in the phase of testing support near $4,000.If this level is breached, it may trigger a further pullback to the short-term buffer support at $3,980, with the key strong support at $3,950 requiring close attention.
If gold can stabilize above $4,000, it will most likely enter a range-bound consolidation phase.
The primary resistance above lies at $4,100, a critical pressure level amid the recent correction. A breakout above this level will require a significant increase in trading volume, making it quite challenging in the short term.
Sell 4060 - 4050
SL 4070
TP 4000 - 3990 - 3980
Buy 4000 - 4010
SL 3990
TP 4040 - 4050 - 4060
XAU/USD Bullish Structure Retest Offering Strategic Swing Entry🏆 XAU/USD GOLD SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY 💰
Bullish Pullback Setup | LSMA Moving Average Confirmation
📊 TRADE PLAN OVERVIEW
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) | METALS Market
Timeframe: Swing Trade (4H-Daily Bias)
Setup Type: Bullish Continuation on Pullback
Confirmation Indicator: LSMA Moving Average
🎯 ENTRY STRATEGY
Method: Layer Entry Using Multiple Buy Limit Orders (Recommended)
Entry Zones:
Primary Entry: 4010.00 - 4020.00 (First layer - 40% position)
Secondary Entry: 3990.00 - 4000.00 (Second layer - 35% position)
Confirmation: Wait for LSMA to show bullish crossover + price rejection from support level
🛑 RISK MANAGEMENT
Stop Loss: 3960.00
⚠️ Important Note: Adjust your SL based on YOUR personal risk tolerance & trading strategy. This is a suggested level only - YOUR risk management is YOUR responsibility.
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5 minimum recommended
🚀 PROFIT TARGET
Primary Target: 4260.00
Technical Reasons:
Strong resistance level identified
Overbought zone trap setup (scalp-friendly)
Correction potential after breakdown confirmation
Historical support/resistance confluence
⚠️ Disclaimer: Take partial profits at technical levels. TP is suggestive only - YOUR profit management is YOUR decision. Risk management is individual responsibility.
📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS ANALYZED
✅ LSMA Moving Average - Bullish Structure Confirmation
✅ Price Action - Pullback to Support
✅ Resistance/Support Levels - Multi-timeframe confluence
✅ Overbought/Oversold Zones - Trap identification
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH
1. EURUSD (EUR/USD) - Inverse Correlation ⚠️
Gold typically strengthens when USD weakens
If EURUSD rallies, XAU/USD may follow (USD weakness)
Key Point: Monitor US Dollar strength/weakness for directional bias
Setup Link: EUR strength = Gold strength
2. DXY (US Dollar Index) - Direct Inverse Correlation 📉
Most Important Correlation
When DXY falls → Gold typically rises
When DXY rises → Gold typically falls
Key Levels to Watch: DXY 105.50 - 106.50 (Major support/resistance)
Our Edge: If DXY breaks below support, XAU/USD bullish case strengthens
3. USDJPY (USD/JPY) - Strong USD Indicator 💹
High positive correlation with USD strength
If USDJPY rises sharply = USD strengthening = Gold pressure
Key Point: Monitor for conflicting signals before entry
Watch Zone: 150.00 - 151.50 resistance
4. SPX500 (S&P 500) - Risk Sentiment Indicator 📊
Risk-off environment = Gold strength
During market corrections, gold rallies (safe-haven)
Key Point: If SPX breaks major support, expect gold rally acceleration
Current Context: Monitor for equity weakness signals
5. UST10Y (US 10-Year Treasury Yield) - Rate Pressure 📉
Inverse relationship with Gold prices
Rising yields = Gold headwinds
Falling yields = Gold tailwinds
Our Setup: Lower yields support bullish gold bias
💡 PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST
Confirm LSMA bullish alignment on primary timeframe
Check DXY weakness (< 106.00 = favorable)
Verify no major economic data releases (next 4 hours)
Set layer entry limit orders (avoid FOMO market entries)
Confirm risk/reward = minimum 1:2.5
Position size = 1-2% account risk maximum
Set alerts at entry/SL/TP levels
⚡ TRADING RULES
ONLY enter on confirmed LSMA bullish structure
Use limit orders (never market buy at resistance)
Trail stop-loss once +50 pips profit locked
Take 50% profit at +100 pips minimum
Move remaining SL to breakeven + 5 pips after TP1 hit
Never add to losing position
Created For: Active Swing Traders | Technical Analysis Enthusiasts
Best Used: Combined with your own analysis & risk management
Updated: Real-time market conditions check recommended before entry
"The best trade is the one you DON'T take because it doesn't fit your plan."
XAUUSD LONG TERM NEXT MOVE POSSIBLE ✅ Technical Analysis Breakdown (XAUUSD – 1H Chart)
gold chart shows a rising wedge / ascending channel, and price is currently reacting at the mid-range support.
You’ve drawn two potential outcomes – continuation upward or bearish breakdown. Let’s analyze both with precision.
📌 1. Current Market Structure
Price is inside a large upward channel.
It recently rejected from the upper trendline, pulling back toward the mid-channel support.
Price is now sitting near the horizontal support zone ~ 4045–4034.
This is a reaction zone where the next direction should become clear.
📈 2. Bullish Scenario (Bounce & Rally Toward 4250+)
Conditions for upside:
Price must break and hold above 4055 (you marked this level).
Bullish structure resumes with higher lows.
Target moves:
1st target: 4160
2nd target: 4250
3rd target: Retest of the channel top near 4300–4330
Your blue arrow upward matches this exact pathway.
Why this can happen:
Price still respecting the ascending channel.
Mid-channel support is holding.
Buyers may step in near support.
📉 3. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown to 3920–3890 Zone)
This becomes active only if price breaks below the rising trendline around 4020–4010.
Bearish targets:
1st target: 3980
2nd target: 3920–3890 (your green demand zone)
This is a strong liquidity pool where buyers previously entered.
Your downward arrow correctly points toward this demand zone.
Why this can happen:
Rising wedge patterns often break down.
Momentum is currently weakening.
Massive liquidity below 4000.
🎯 4. What Is Most Likely Right Now?
Based on the chart:
✔ Price is testing support.
✔ Still inside the bullish channel.
✔ No confirmed breakdown yet.
➡ Bias: Short-term bullish unless 4020 breaks.
Once 4020 breaks cleanly → bearish continuation becomes very likely.
🧭 5. Simple Trading Plan (Based on Your Zones)
Bullish Setup
Buy above: 4055
SL: 4020
TP: 4160 → 4250 → 4320
Bearish Setup
Sell after breakdown below: 4020
SL: 4050
TP: 3980 → 3920 → 3890
For More Updates Stay Tuned
GOLD At Perfect Place For Sell Now , 200 Pips Waiting !Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we again Below 4050.00 With 4H Candle and the price come back to retest it ! and we have a 4H Candle closure below it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can sell now ! and we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bearish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A .
4- Over Bought .
5- Perfect 30 Mins Closure .
XAUUSD: Short if resistance at 4050 is not broken.Gold prices plunged by approximately $100 yesterday, from a high of around 4110 to around 4010.
Looking at the current 1-hour chart:
It's clear that the 4010-4000 area represents a support level from the previous rapid rise.
If the price fails to break below 4000, a bottoming-out rebound is possible.
The current resistance level is around 4050.
After breaking below 4050 last night, 4050 has become resistance.
Gold is currently likely to consolidate within the 4000-4050 range.
Which way will the breakout occur next?
If gold prices return above 4050, the trading range will revert to 4050-4100.
Conversely, if it breaks below 4000, the subsequent range will become 4000-3950.
Therefore, as long as the 4000-4050 range remains unbroken, I recommend maintaining a range-bound trading strategy, buying low and selling high, and avoiding chasing highs and lows.
Gold is currently at 4050, a short position can be initiated.
ANFIBO | Gold XAUUSD - In a Bearish structure yet? [11.18.2025]I'm Anfibo, Here's my XAUUSD Daily Trading Plan ;)
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD has officially broken its bullish structure, confirming a shift in market sentiment and signaling that the upward momentum has cooled off. With the H1 trendline decisively breached, we now transition from a “buy-the-dip” mindset to a sell-the-rally strategy. The nearest resistance sits at 4058, a strong confluence zone where multiple technical barriers align. If price pushes beyond this level, the next supply areas to watch are 4104 and 4146 — regions likely to act as retests of the broken trend, providing high-probability opportunities for continuation sells. The overall expectation for today is further downside movement as long as gold remains below these resistance zones.
Given the current structure, the market is presenting a classic post-breakdown setup, where rallies into resistance should be treated as opportunities to position for the next leg down. As long as gold remains capped below these key supply zones, the medium-term outlook remains bearish with targets toward the psychological level of 4000 and deeper.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4055 – 4060
SL: 4075
TP: 4000 – 3950 – 3920
(2) ENTRY: 4100 – 4110
SL: 4120
TP: 4000 – 3970
Risk Management:
Prioritize sell setups only, as the bullish structure is no longer valid.
Keep stops tight above resistance zones to avoid false breakouts.
Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 on all entries.
Avoid buying unless the market reclaims and stabilizes above 4146 with strong momentum.
Conclusion:
With the break of the upward structure, gold has transitioned into a bearish phase. We will stay patient and sell into rallies, especially near the strong resistance clusters at 4058, 4104, and 4146. As long as price remains below these levels, the path of least resistance continues downward toward the 4000 and 3950 targets. Stick to the plan, trust the structure, and let the market flow in our favor.
HAVE A SWEET PROFIT DAY, GUYS!
XAU/USD 18 November 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 14 November 2025, price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD Intraday Plan – Watching Reaction at Support ZoneAfter a brief consolidation yesterday, gold dropped into the Support Zone and is currently trading around 4014. Market structure remains bearish, with price sitting below both the MA50 and MA200. The series of rejection wicks shows buyers are trying to push back, but momentum is still with the sellers for now.
The first resistance is at 4027. For buyers to gain traction, we need a clean break above 4027, followed by a break above 4053 — only then could we see an attempt toward 4078.
If price fails to hold the Support Zone and breaks below 3,996, the next downside target becomes the HTF Support Zone — a major area where buyers have reacted strongly in the past.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4027
4053
4078
Support:
3996
3968
3921
GOLD (XAU/USD): THE BATTLE OF NFP AND THE FED!1️⃣ TECHNICAL VIEW (TA): Awaiting Sell Confirmation
Structure: The short-term uptrend has ended, prices are adjusting/reversing.
Main Supply Zone (Order Block - OB): Prices are retracing to the ideal sell zone (around $4,064 - $4,081).
Strategy: Prioritize seeking SELL signals at the OB zone.
Targets: $3,976 and $3,931 if the OB zone holds.
2️⃣ FUNDAMENTAL VIEW (FA): Interest Rate Pressure
Selling pressure is increasing from:**
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish: The probability of a 25bps rate cut in December has fallen below 50%. The "Higher for Longer" signal reduces Gold's appeal.
Upcoming Risks: The market awaits NFP and FOMC Minutes. Strong data will bolster USD and sink Gold.
⚠️ Opposing risks: Uncertainty from the U.S. Government shutdown and geopolitical tensions (Russia/Ukraine) may restrain the decline.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingSetup #SELLZone #Fed #NFP #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcepts #Forex
Gold Losing 4050 Support – 4K Now at Risk1. What Happened Yesterday
Gold broke below the key 4050 support zone and continued to decline, coming very close to the psychological 4000 level.
This is the most significant bearish continuation we’ve seen since the strong rally earlier this month.
2. Current Market Context
At the time of writing, price is showing only a weak and shallow rebound, hovering around 4017.
Momentum remains bearish, and structurally, the market looks vulnerable to a clean break below 4K.
3. Technical Outlook
If price continues lower, the 3950–3970 zone becomes highly relevant. This area represents a medium-term bullish demand zone, and a drop into it could offer a meaningful buying opportunity — but only with confirmation.
Right now, the structure remains bearish. A genuine shift back to bullish conditions would require:
- A reclaim of 4050, and more importantly
- A stabilization above that level, not just a wick or intraday spike.
Without that, any bounce is just noise inside a bearish trend.
4. Trading Plan
- Bearish bias remains active as long as price trades under 4050
- A flush into 3950–3970 could be a buy zone, but only if price shows clear support and reversal signs
- Until then, bulls are on defense, and shorts continue to have the advantage
5. Conclusion
Gold is under pressure, and a break below 4K is a strong possibility. A deeper drop may eventually turn into an opportunity for medium-term buyers, but at this moment the structure is bearish and caution is required.
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OANDA:XAUUSD LONG
TP: 4110.522
SL: 4054.303
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