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ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Black Friday, but hit $4200 soon [11.11.2025]Well, Anfibo's here again! XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan Overall Picture: OANDA:XAUUSD has moved exactly according to my yesterday’s plan, delivering an impressive 750 Pips of profit — a phenomenal start to the new trading week. The bullish structure remains firmly intact, and momentum continues to show strength as price pushes higher toward major resistance zones. For today, my expectation is that XAUUSD will extend its upside move toward the $4,200 region, which also aligns perfectly with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension on the higher timeframe — a strong confluence level where profit-taking is highly likely. At this zone, I will secure additional profits from yesterday’s buy positions and closely monitor price action for potential sell signals. Trading Plan for Today: >>> SELL ZONE: ENTRY: 4185 – 4205 SL: 4210 TP: 4150 – 4130 >>> BUY ZONE: ENTRY: 4075 - 4090 SL: 4065 TP: 4140 – 4190 - 4200 Risk Management: Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts. Keep stops tight, as bullish extensions can reverse sharply at major confluence zones. Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading during high volatility spikes. Reassess market bias once price reacts clearly around the $4200 fibo confluence zone. Conclusion: Gold continues to reward trend-following strategies as it pushes toward the $4200 target zone. This level will be crucial for today’s session, as it represents both a psychological barrier and a strong fibo confluence. I will lock in further profits on buys once price reaches this region and will only consider sells if price action confirms a reversal pattern. HAVE A NICE DAY, GUYS!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ANFIBO_
1
Support and Signals Amid DisagreementsPolicy and Funds Form "Hard Support": Although there are profit-taking sell-offs after new highs, the general direction of the Fed's easing cycle has not changed (core inflation is approaching the target, the labor market is cooling), the downward trend of real interest rates has not reversed, and in addition to the "rigid demand" from global central banks purchasing gold (monthly by emerging market central banks has not stopped)， the 4120-4125 range has become a "strong support amid disagreements"， with a probability of less than 15%， providing a clear safety margin for going long. Hedging Demand "Has Elasticity"： Although the conflict in the Middle East has not escalated yet, shipping safety risks (decreased vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz) and potential "risk points" before the US election (political games) have not disappeared. Once a risk event emerges amid the disagreements， it is likely to trigger "short covering + following the trend to go long"， quickly resolving the disagreements and pushing the gold price to a new high. Today's gold trading strategy buy：4120-4130 tp:4140-4160 sl:4110
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Chart Analysis: Reaching Key Resistance/FVGKey Observations and Analysis Recent Price Action: Gold has experienced a strong upward move, currently trading around $4,142.19. This rally has approached a critical area marked on the chart. Key Resistance / Fair Value Gap (FVG): The price is entering a large shaded box labeled "D / FVG". This box, spanning from approximately $4,160 to $4,240, represents a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) or a significant imbalance left by a prior sharp move down (a large bearish candle on November 21st-22nd). In technical analysis, particularly concepts like Smart Money Concepts (SMC), an FVG acts as a high-probability target where the market often returns to fill the inefficiency. It also typically serves as a strong resistance zone. Break of Structure (BOS): An area labeled "BOS" (Break of Structure) around the $4,020 level indicates a recent shift in market structure from potentially bearish/ranging to bullish on this timeframe, confirming the recent upward momentum. Prior Low ('X'): A previous low labeled "X" around the $4,000 psychological level was initially respected before the rally commenced. Expected Reaction: The chart includes a projected price path (the black arrow/zigzag line) suggesting the price may tap the FVG and then experience a reversal or sharp pullback from this key supply/imbalance zone. Conclusion The XAUUSD market is currently testing a significant Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Resistance zone. Traders will be looking for a reaction around the $4,160 - $4,240 area to determine if the bullish momentum will pause, reverse, or break through to continue higher.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Effort to Breakout??? [11.10.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here! XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan Overall Picture: OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading at the upper boundary of its sideways H1 channel, a key decision point where market sentiment is being tested. This resistance zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price during the current consolidation phase. The question now is whether this level will once again trigger a technical pullback, or if bullish momentum—supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—will be strong enough to deliver a clean breakout and start a new impulsive leg upward. Price action today will be crucial in determining whether gold continues ranging or transitions into a breakout phase. Trading Plan for Today: >>> BUY ZONE: (1) ENTRY: 4040 - 4050 SL: 4030 TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200 (2) ENTRY: 4070 - 4080 (small vol) SL: 4065 TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200 Risk Management: - Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts. - Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals. - Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions. - Reassess market bias once the H1 channel is decisively broken. Conclusion: Gold is sitting right at the “make-or-break” zone of its sideways channel. This area will tell us whether the market plans to reject and pull back, or gather enough momentum for a powerful breakout. As always, we remain flexible: trade the range until it breaks, and prepare to shift bias immediately if a confirmed breakout occurs. HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW WEEK GUYS!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ANFIBO_
1
XAUUSD Could Be Bullish If It Stabilizes at This LevelGold surged to its highest level in more than two weeks as traders recalibrated expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, following weak US jobs data and worsening consumer sentiment. The precious metal's gains came despite progress in ending the US government shutdown, as signs of an economic slowdown continued to boost demand for safe-haven assets. - Sell Setup (Short position): A sell position is valid below 4102, targeting 4056 / 4025 / 4004. - Buy Setup (Long position): A buy position is valid above 4102, targeting 4155 / 4189. 📌 Key Points Gold remains bearish below 4102, with potential for a decline towards 4056–4025 after a possible correction to 4090–4102. Only a confirmed 1-hour or 4-hour close above 4102 would shift the bias to bullish continuation, targeting 4155–4189 next.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by NouzTrader
Gold’s Calm Before the Storm – Triangle Ending Soon!Over the past 10 days , many traders—especially those working on 15-minute and higher timeframes—might have found Gold a bit tedious as it's been somewhat range-bound. Right now, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is sitting in a Support zone($4,004 – $3,895) and is also relatively close to a Resistance zone($4,046 – $4,004) . From a Classical Technical Analysis standpoint on the 1-hour timeframe, it looks like gold has formed a Symmetrical Triangle and it's currently moving near the upper line of this triangle. Additionally, there's a small ascending channel that has formed over the last couple of days, which is something to keep in mind. In terms of Elliott Wave theory, Gold might be forming a Contracting Triangle that could be completed by the time it finishes wave E. I expect that Gold may decline at least to the lower line of the symmetrical triangle in the coming hours. If it breaks that lower line , we might see further downside and a clearer direction for gold’s main movement. Otherwise, it could bounce again. Second Target: $3,913 Stop Loss(SL): $4,04(Worst) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
9
Is Gold Setting Up a Swing Rally?XAU/USD Accumulation Highlights🏆 XAU/USD "GOLD VS U.S DOLLAR" - Metals Market Opportunity Blueprint 📊 Swing Trade | Bullish Wyckoff Accumulation 💎 📍 MARKET SETUP Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs U.S. Dollar) Timeframe: Swing Trade (4H-Daily) Pattern: Bullish Wyckoff Accumulation Phase ✅ Market Structure: Accumulation Zone Identified 🎯 🎯 ENTRY STRATEGY - LAYERING METHOD ("THIEF STRATEGY") Multiple Limit Order Entry Points: Using the Layering Strategy - Scale in with multiple limit orders at different levels for optimal position management. Layer 1 Entry: $3,960 (33% Position Size) - First Entry Point 🔵 Layer 2 Entry: $4,000 (33% Position Size) - Second Entry Point 🟢 Layer 3 Entry: $4,040 (34% Position Size) - Third Entry Point 🟡 📌 NOTE: You can increase/adjust layers based on your risk tolerance and capital allocation. Flexibility is key to the Thief Strategy. ⛔ STOP LOSS Recommended SL Level: $3,880 (Below Accumulation Base) Risk Per Trade: Adjust based on your personal risk management strategy ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is NOT a recommendation. Adjust your stop loss according to YOUR OWN STRATEGY and RISK TOLERANCE. Your capital, your rules. 🛡️ 🚀 PROFIT TARGET Primary Target: $4,360 (Strong Resistance + Overbought Zone) Key Resistance Levels: ⚡ Strong resistance confluence zone Overbought signal indicates profit-taking zone Be cautious of potential reversal traps near target 💰 DISCLAIMER: This is NOT a recommendation for exit points. Secure profits based on YOUR OWN RISK MANAGEMENT. Take gains when you're comfortable. 📈 📊 RELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR (CORRELATION ANALYSIS) 🔴 INVERSE CORRELATION (Move Opposite to Gold) TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) 📉 When DXY strengthens → XAU/USD weakens When DXY weakens → XAU/USD strengthens KEY POINT: Monitor DXY weakness as bullish trigger for gold rally FX:EURUSD 💶 Strong negative correlation with gold Euro weakness = Gold strength (Flight to Safety) Watch for Euro breakdown below key support levels 🟡 POSITIVE CORRELATION (Move Together) OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver vs USD) 🔗 Typically moves 70-80% correlated with gold KEY POINT: Confirms broader precious metals strength If XAGUSD breaks resistance, XAU/USD usually follows FX:GBPUSD (British Pound vs USD) 🏴 Weak positive correlation with gold Weak GBP = Risk-off sentiment = Gold demand rises Watch for GBP weakness as confluence signal 🔵 MACRO DRIVERS TO WATCH US Treasury Yields (10Y, 2Y) 📊 Higher yields = Lower gold attractiveness Lower yields = Higher gold demand CRITICAL: Monitor Fed announcements & rate expectations SP:SPX (S&P 500) 📈 Risk-on sentiment weakens gold demand Risk-off sentiment strengthens gold Market crashes = Gold surges (Safe Haven) ⚡ CONFLUENCE SIGNALS FOR THIS SETUP ✅ Bullish Confluence When: DXY shows weakness/breakdown XAGUSD confirms precious metals strength Moving Averages align bullishly Wyckoff accumulation phase completing ⚠️ Invalidation Signals: Break below $3,880 SL (Accumulation base failure) Strong DXY rally Risk-on market rally (Equities surge) 💡 TRADER'S NOTES 🎯 Best Timing: Scale entries during DXY weakness or Fed pivot signals 📍 Sweet Spot: Layer entries $3,960-$4,040 range for optimal averaging 🛑 Risk Control: Never risk more than 2-3% per trade 💰 Profit Taking: Consider partial profits at each moving average resistance ⚖️ FULL DISCLAIMER 🔹 This analysis is for educational purposes only 🔹 Always conduct your own research & due diligence 🔹 Past performance ≠ Future results 🔹 Manage your risk responsibly 🔹 Your capital, your responsibility, your choice 🛡️ 📌#XAU/USD #Gold #Swing Trade #Wyckoff #TechnicalAnalysis #FX #Metals #Trading #DayTrader #Accumulation #LayeringStrategy
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
2
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Higher for Now — Keep an Eye on SupportWe have a volatile week ahead as the U.S. government shutdown situation continues to unfold. The first vote has passed, but there is still uncertainty around final approval and timing. Gold has pushed higher during the Asian session, breaking above the 4027 resistance and is now trading around 4076, sitting just above the 4074 level. A confirmed break and hold above 4074 would likely open the door for further upside toward 4115, with 4153 as the next major resistance target. However, if price fails to sustain above 4074, we could see a pullback toward 4027 for a retest. If selling pressure increases from there, price may rotate back into the First Reaction Zone, where buyers previously stepped in. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 4074 4115 4153 Support: 4027 3984 3955 3921 3884 🔎 Fundamental Focus All eyes remain on the U.S. government shutdown situation, with votes and negotiations around reopening in focus. The longer the shutdown continues, the more it disrupts key economic data releases and increases uncertainty — which can keep gold reactive and sensitive to headlines.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
The bulls are back, and going long remains the main theme.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Although the beginning of the week didn't offer a pullback entry opportunity, gold rallied immediately after the open, breaking through 4030 as expected and continuing its upward trend, officially signaling the return of the bulls to the market. From the hourly chart, gold broke through the resistance of the upward channel at 4055 and continued to fluctuate upwards, indicating that the bullish momentum remains strong in the short term. However, attention should be paid to the resistance at 4080-4100 from the weekly MA5 moving average and the daily middle line, and be wary of a possible pullback after a surge. Therefore, in the short term, avoid blindly chasing the rally, patiently waiting for a pullback to buy remains our main trading strategy. The first support level to watch is the 4055-4045 level, a previous resistance turning point, followed by the important support at 4030-4020. Therefore, if gold prices fall back after encountering resistance during the European session, we can consider going long on gold in batches based on the strength of the pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Miracle-Walker_GC
XAUUSD: Bullish Breakout Targeting High-Value Liquidity ($$$)Key Technical Observations 4H / FVG (Four-Hour Fair Value Gap): The price has recently moved into or is reacting to a Fair Value Gap (FVG), a concept often used in Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. An FVG suggests an imbalance that the market often seeks to fill or utilize as support/resistance. In this context, the price moving out of this gap and continuing higher suggests it acted as a potential support or springboard for the latest move up. Liquidity Targets ($$$): The analysis has clearly marked two higher levels as targets, labeled "$$$". These typically represent liquidity pools (e.g., clustered stop losses or pending orders) that the market is likely to move toward: First Target: Approximately 4,080.00 Second Target: Approximately 4,100.00 - 4,110.00 Recent Price Action: The candles leading up to the current level are predominantly green (bullish), indicating strong buying momentum that broke past the recent consolidation highs. Conclusion & Outlook The analysis points toward a strong bullish bias. The break out of the consolidation range, potentially catalyzed by the FVG area, and the clear liquidity targets ($$$) above suggest the next move is likely to challenge the 4,080.00 and then the 4,100.00 price zones.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by fx_martin9
2
Gold: 4050 brokenGold prices are showing an upward trend today, currently hovering around 4044, with the intraday high having broken through the key resistance level of 4050. This indicates that bullish momentum has strengthened in the short term, driving prices higher. After breaking through 4050, the short-term resistance levels above lie in the 4060-4080 range. The short-term support level below is around 4020, which is a previous dense trading zone and thus has a certain supporting effect, while the key support level is at 4000. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue their upward momentum, but may face some resistance around 4060. If they can effectively break through this resistance level, prices may surge toward 4080 or even higher. Conversely, if they encounter resistance and pull back around 4060, they may consolidate within the 4020-4060 range. Trading Strategy: Sell 4050 - 4055 SL 4060 TP 4035 - 4025 - 4015 Buy 4030 - 4035 SL 4020 TP 4050 - 4060 - 4070
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by KingArthur_
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above short-term descending trendline resistance and is now hovering near $4,045–$4,050, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The breakout was supported by strong buying from the $4,011–$4,017 Support Zone, where previous consolidation occurred. The Resistance Zone lies between $4,054–$4,061, which may act as the next upside target before a potential pullback. The current structure suggests a bullish continuation setup, favouring buying on dips toward the newly established support around $4,011–$4,017. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy on dip after breakout, targeting higher resistance. Entry: $4,011 – $4,017 (support retest) Stop Loss: $4,008 Take Profit 1: $4,054 Take Profit 2: $4,061 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.65 If gold sustains above $4,061, it could extend further toward $4,080–$4,100, marking a continuation of the bullish breakout sequence. 🌐 Macro Background Gold prices extended gains to around $4,050 in Monday’s Asian session, supported by renewed rate-cut expectations and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment. FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted that “Gold edges higher amid concerns over the U.S. economy as markets increase bets on Fed rate cuts.” 【FXStreet】 Labor Market Weakness: U.S. Challenger job cuts surged to 150,000 in October, the highest for that month in over two decades. The spike signals growing softness in the job market and fuels expectations that the Fed could act sooner to support growth. Rate-Cut Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing demand for the metal. Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan (UoM) Index fell to 50.3 in November (vs. 53.6 in October), a three-and-a-half-year low, reflecting economic pessimism. Shutdown Resolution: Reports from Bloomberg indicate the U.S. government shutdown could soon end as Senate Democrats support a funding deal. While this slightly eases safe-haven demand, it does not offset the dovish macro bias currently favouring gold. Overall, the weakening labour data, falling consumer confidence, and rising rate-cut bets create a constructive macro environment for gold, especially if the Fed adopts a more accommodative tone into December. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $4,054 – $4,061 Support: $4,008 – $4,020 Psychological Level: $4,050 📌 Trade Summary Gold broke above short-term resistance, with momentum shifting firmly bullish toward $4,060. The current bias favours buying dips near $4,011–$4,017, targeting the upper resistance band at $4,054–$4,061. A sustained break above this zone could open the path toward $4,080–$4,100. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
1
This week's gold price movementFor this week's gold price movement, it is expected to continue in a range-bound consolidation pattern. In terms of operation, it is recommended to adopt a "sell high and buy low" strategy within the range, with a key focus on the core consolidation interval of 3,970-4,030. Specifically, when the gold price pulls back to around 3,970, one can consider establishing a light long position, with a stop-loss set below 3,950 to control risks, and the target range set at 4,000-4,010. When the price rebounds to around 4,030, one can attempt to establish a light short position, with a stop-loss set above 4,050 to avoid greater losses from a breakthrough of the resistance level, and the target range set lower at 4,000-3,980. It should be reminded to investors that current market divergences are significant, and price fluctuations may exceed expectations. In actual operations, it is necessary to strictly control positions and avoid over-trading. Meanwhile, closely monitor changes in key news such as global macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy trends, and adjust operating strategies in a timely manner according to actual market conditions to respond to potential risks and opportunities.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by KingArthur_
Gold: Support Near 3986, Resistance Near 4030The current market narrative is driven by three key themes: Volatility in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields U.S. government shutdown risks impacting data releases and market sentiment Forward guidance from major central banks regarding their policy rate paths Whether gold can achieve a sustained breakout will primarily depend on: A persistent decline in USD and Treasury yields Increased safe-haven demand amid equity market volatility and rising macro uncertainty Continued net capital inflows into gold, particularly from passive and long-duration allocation funds If these conditions do not align, gold is likely to remain range-bound, forming a time-based consolidation pattern. If they do align, resistance near 4100 may weaken, boosting bullish conviction and paving the way for a smoother breakout. Technically, supply remains around 4030, yet the rising trendline remains intact and the 3948–3921 key support zone continues to attract buyers. Absent a major catalyst, price action is likely to remain consolidative in the near term. On both the 1H and 4H charts, moving averages are converging, signaling range compression and an imminent direction choice. Upcoming macro headlines will likely act as the catalyst for the next major move. Trading Plan: Key intraday levels: 4030 resistance / 3986 support Trade the range until a breakout occurs If price breaks out, short-term momentum trades may be considered — but with disciplined targets Conservative traders may wait for a pullback entry Medium- to long-term investors can continue accumulating on dips, waiting for the market confirmation
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
Gold stood above the 4000 level againNon-Farm Payrolls data was once again suspended on Friday, and the market traded in a range-bound manner throughout the day. It hit a high around 4027 and a low around 3975, which aligned with the range I had indicated. Judging from the closing price, gold stood above the 4000 level again. Bulls should continue to focus on the 4040-4055 zone, as the battle for this level will remain a key focus next week. If the rebound fails to break through this range, we can still enter short positions. Recently, I have repeatedly provided the strategy of shorting in the 4010-4020 range, and all have been verified by the market. Let’s wait and see how the market develops next week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by KingArthur_
XAU/USD Gold analysis week 2 of NovGOLD Weekly Outlook This week, I’ll be going through two possible directional biases for gold and how price could play out from current levels. - Scenario (A): Price could continue pushing upwards to mitigate the 2hr supply zone, where we may then see a Wyckoff distribution form before a potential move down to set a bearish trend. This aligns with the liquidity resting below and the unmitigated demand zone beneath. - Scenario (B): Alternatively, price could tap into the 7hr demand zone, where a Wyckoff accumulation could take place — giving us a buying opportunity to target the liquidity above. P.S. Always stay adaptable and avoid marrying your analysis. Let the market show its hand, then make your move accordingly — the trend is your friend!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Hassan_fx
XAUUSD (Gold) H1 Chart Analysis: Short-Term Bearish SetupKey Observations & Market Structure Break of Structure (BOS): An upward Break of Structure (BOS) occurred recently around the $4,020 level, indicating a shift toward a bullish trend on this timeframe. The high at $4,020 marked the top of the current range. Failed Highs (Potential Manipulation): The price made two subsequent attempts (labeled 'X' and another subsequent high) to break the BOS high, but both failed and resulted in wicks above the previous highs. This pattern often suggests liquidity grabbing or a sweep of buy-side liquidity (BSL) above the previous swing high before a move in the opposite direction. Current Price Action: The current candle shows a sharp rejection and a move lower from the high, as indicated by the downward arrow. Swing Low Liquidity (SSL): A significant Swing Low Liquidity (SSL) level has been created around $3,965, which is likely a target for a short-term bearish move as sell stops accumulate below it. Fair Value Gap (FVG) / 1H Order Block: Below the SSL target, there is a clear 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or a potential Order Block zone identified between approximately $3,950 and $3,955. This area represents a potential support zone where smart money may look to enter long positions, expecting the price to fill the inefficiency (FVG) or react to the order block before continuing the overall bullish move.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDShort
by fx_martin9
Gold (XAU/USD) – 4H Market OutlookFOREXCOM:XAUUSD Bias: Short-term bullish retracement toward prior high Price is currently reacting from a well-defined support zone around the 4,000 region, where buyers have shown repeated willingness to step in. The market has consolidated within this zone, forming a series of higher lows, which signals accumulation and potential exhaustion of the previous bearish leg. My entry aligns with the structural demand. The rejection wick at the base of the zone suggests failure to break lower, strengthening the case for a bullish move. As long as price holds above the marked support, the market maintains a realistic path toward the previous swing high above 4,360, which is the projected target. The bullish target area also aligns with the broad imbalance / inefficiency zone created during the earlier sell-off. Markets commonly retrace to rebalance these areas before deciding on the next major directional move. Your stop-loss placement below 3,886, under the structural low and beneath the liquidity sweep, is logical. If price violates this level, it would invalidate the bullish thesis and confirm continuation to the downside. In summary: • Market is respecting a valid demand zone. • Accumulation structure favors a bullish corrective leg. • First major liquidity pool sits above 4,360 (your target area). • Stop-loss below 3,886 protects the trade idea while honoring market structure. ⸻ Devil’s Advocate — What Could Break This Plan? To strengthen your thinking, here are the strongest counter-arguments: 1. The “demand zone” may actually be redistribution. If this is a bearish continuation, the sideways movement could simply be sellers reloading before pushing price to new lows. 2. Liquidity above 4,360 might NOT get hit yet. Price could rally halfway into the inefficiency and reject aggressively without filling the entire imbalance. ⸻ Three Clarifying Questions you should ask(to tighten your analysis) 1. What confirms for you that this is accumulation and not redistribution? 2. If price only retraces to the midpoint of the imbalance (around 4,260), do you still hold full TP at 4,360? 3. What invalidation level—besides the SL—would signal loss of bullish momentum?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Actualjustice