10/1: 3900 in Sight, Watch Support at 3826–3814Today marks the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The whole nation is celebrating. In previous years, a military parade would be held on this day, but this year it was brought forward to September 3rd.
Back to the market—yesterday, gold surged to 3870 before pulling back to around 3790, and today it has once again returned to 3870, reaching a new high. From a technical perspective, a nearly $100 rally suggests that some correction is due. Current support is mainly at the 3848–3842 zone, with stronger support at 3826–3814.
On the daily chart, this round of the rally is likely approaching its end today. However, the overall structure remains healthy, meaning a pullback followed by another leg up is quite possible. On the weekly timeframe, the bullish trend is not yet finished, so gold still has room to make new highs in the medium term.
Now that the price has risen near 3875, testing 3900 is within reach. That level will likely act as a new psychological barrier, so a pullback from there would be normal and could present trading opportunities.
📌 Trading plan for today:
If gold rises to the 3900 area → consider short positions.
If it pulls back to the 3840 area → look for long opportunities.
Xauusdsignals
Support Unproven: Gold Bears Eye Fresh PullbackGold began retreating from around 3872, hitting 3793 before rebounding again. It has now reached a high of around 3855, recovering most of its losses.
However, it's not difficult to see that since gold's recent decline reached a rare $80, its upward momentum has been lackluster, even somewhat weak. This suggests that the sharp pullback in gold's short-term performance has dampened bullish sentiment to some extent. Furthermore, it's clear that gold has shown clear signs of profit-taking above 3855. While a collapse is far from imminent, further declines are possible as signs of profit-taking intensify.
From a technical perspective, gold experienced a sharp decline in the short term and rebounded near 3793. Technically, the validity of 3793 as a low point needs to be retested and verified. Therefore, a direct upward move in the near term is unlikely, and a retest of the short-term support low is necessary.
So, when judging short-term support and resistance, we first need to pay attention to the role of the 3845-3855 resistance area above; below, we first pay attention to the support area of 3810-3800. If gold falls below the support near the low point of 3793, then gold may fall further to the 3780-3770 area.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, we can still take advantage of the rebound in gold and give priority to shorting gold in the 3840-3850 area, first looking at the target 3820-3810 area.
ANFIBO | XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan (09.30.2025)Hello traders, Anfibo's here!
OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
As anticipated, OANDA:XAUUSD has surged strongly above the $3,865/oz resistance level, delivering more than 600 PIPS of profit from the previously executed trading plan. This once again confirms the strength of the dominant bullish trend and the market’s confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset.
Heading into this week, I remain bullish, with gold likely to test the $3,880/oz level and potentially push further toward $4,000/oz, provided no negative news emerges. The $4,000 mark is not only a key psychological round number resistance but also aligns with the projected target of wave 5 in Elliott Wave structure on the Monthly timeframe – an area where strong profit-taking pressure often occurs. Traders should pay close attention to this zone.
Technical Outlook:
Short-term trend: Strong increase, momentum remains stable on H4 and Daily frames.
> SUPPORT KEY / BUY ZONES : 3790 - 3770 - 3750 - 3723 - 3713
> RESISTANCE KEY / SELL ZONES : 3825 - 3845 - 3860 - 3870 - 3882
Here's my Trading Plan today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 3860 - 3870
SL: 3873
TP: 3835 - 3800
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 3785 - 3795
SL: 3780
TP: 3835 - 3860 - 3870 - 3880
Risk Management:
- Prioritize buy trades in line with the dominant trend, limit countertrend shorts.
- Maintain a R:R ratio of at least 1:2 on all setups.
- Manage capital strictly, avoid overtrading during sideways phases before breakout.
GOODLUCK GUYS!!!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 3767 - 3793 area
Support 2: 3690 - 3736 area
Support 3: 3613 - 3644 area
Support 4: 3560 - 3580 area
Resistance 1: 3898 - 3902 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Support 1 and Vertical Support 1 will compose an important contracting demand zone.
There will be a high chance to see a bullish movement from that.
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ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – GOLD FORECAST (30/09/2025)
📊 XAUUSD Deep Analysis (30/09/2025 – London Session)
Daily (D1):
• Gold rejected the 3,871 high, forming a strong bearish rejection candle.
• Structure remains bullish above 3,769–3,770, but today’s move shows correction pressure.
• Trend is intact while above the 10EMA (~3,769), with next support at 3,733–3,740.
1H Chart:
• Clear breakdown from 3,863–3,871 resistance.
• Price is now sitting around 3,802, testing 200 EMA + Fib retracement zone.
• Momentum indicators (MACD & histogram) show increasing bearish pressure, RSI cooling off from overbought.
15M & 5M Charts:
• Strong bearish momentum with BOS (break of structure) confirmed.
• 15M shows a descending channel, short-term support at 3,797–3,800.
• 5M chart oversold but still pressing lower, confirming short bias unless a sharp reversal forms.
⸻
🟡 Fibonacci Golden Zone
Using swing low 3,769 → swing high 3,871:
• 38.2% = 3,833
• 50% = 3,820
• 61.8% = 3,807
➡️ This zone (3,833–3,807) is now active support — price is inside it. If it fails, deeper retracement toward 3,782–3,769 is likely.
⸻
⚡ Scalping Opportunities (5M & 15M, 60 pip SL max)
🔹 Sell Scalps (preferred while below 3,833–3,840):
• Entry: 3,832–3,838 rejection
• TP: 3,820 → 3,812
• SL: ~3,844 (60 pips)
🔹 Buy Scalps (counter-trend, only if Fib support holds):
• Entry: 3,804–3,801 zone
• TP: 3,820 → 3,828
• SL: ~3,795 (55–60 pips)
⸻
📌 Breakout Levels to Continue Trend
• Bullish: Break & hold above 3,842 → recovery toward 3,858–3,871.
• Bearish: Break below 3,797 → opens 3,782–3,769.
⸻
✅ Summary
Gold is correcting inside the Fib golden zone (3,833–3,807). Short-term momentum favors sells on bounces, but buyers may defend 3,807–3,797. Scalpers can sell rejections under 3,833 or look for countertrend bounces from 3,807–3,810 with tight SLs.
Time to Fade the Rally—Gold Shorts Aim for 3835–3825Driven by the market's risk aversion sentiment, gold continues to maintain its strong upward position and has now reached our long target area: 3850-3860 as expected. It is obvious that gold is still in a bull trend, but as gold prices have risen sharply, more and more high-level risks have accumulated. Therefore, it is actually very difficult to directly participate in gold long trading now.
But according to the current trend, it is not difficult to find that after each surge in gold, there is a trend of falling back and testing support. Therefore, even if gold is in an upward trend, there is still a need to retrace support locally, and the retracement range is relatively not small, and can reach a retracement space of $20-30, so there is enough profit space for short-term trading.
In addition, in the short term, gold is currently facing the influence of the trend channel resistance area of 3855-3865. The current upward momentum has converged and the willingness to rise has tended to weaken. Under the influence of the resistance in this area, gold may have a need to retreat in the short term.
So in the short term, we might first consider shorting gold with the 3855-3865 area as resistance, and first look at the target area of 3835-3825 area. Of course, to gamble on short-term retracement profits in an upward trend, you need to set up protection!
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its rally to a new all-time high above $3,870, but short-term charts show slight profit-taking pressure. Price action is consolidating within a narrow range between Support Zone $3,842–$3,846 and Resistance Zone $3,869–$3,873. As long as the support holds, the bias remains bullish with potential continuation towards higher resistance levels.
The ascending trendline is intact, suggesting the trend remains strongly upward. A decisive close above $3,873 could open the door to $3,900–$3,910 levels in the near term.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,846–$3,842 (Support Zone retest)
Stop Loss: $3,840
Take Profit 1: $3,873
Take Profit 2: $3,900
R:R Ratio: ~1 : 4.04
🌍 Macro Background
Gold’s rally is supported by geopolitical tensions, US government shutdown risks, and dovish Fed expectations. The USD remains under pressure as markets price in a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and a 70% chance of another cut in December (CME FedWatch). Additionally, escalating geopolitical risks—Russia’s warning over US missile supplies to Ukraine and heightened Middle East tensions—are fuelling safe-haven flows into gold.
Meanwhile, US political uncertainty continues as President Trump’s last-minute negotiations with Congress failed to yield a budget agreement, keeping the government shutdown threat alive. This adds another layer of support for gold’s safe-haven demand.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,869 / $3,873 / $3,900
Support: $3,846 / $3,842
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains in a bullish structure, with strong fundamental backing from Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical risks. Dips into the support zone near $3,846–$3,842 are likely to attract buyers, targeting $3,873 and potentially $3,900+. Only a break below $3,840 would weaken the bullish bias.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
3820 Breakout:Chase It or Fade It?After our long position hit the TP, we just profited from our short position near 3830 by hitting the TP at 3815. This is a very good short-term trade.
Judging from the current structural form of gold, the low point of gold retracement is gradually shifting upward, and the short-term support below is moving up to the 3810-3800 area; if gold rebounds again with the help of this support area and stands above 3825, under the resonance of technical level and positive news, gold may hit the 3840-3850 area in the short term, or even reach the extreme area near 3860. The current market is bullish and it is difficult to see a reversal in the short term. At best, there will only be a short-term pullback. Therefore, in short-term trading, we mainly follow the trend trading; only after gold touches the key resistance area can we try to short gold. It should be noted that due to the limited retracement space, a reasonable TP must be set.
1. Consider going long on gold in the 3810-3800 range, initially targeting the 3835-3845 range.
2. When gold first reaches the 3840-3850 range, consider going short on gold, initially targeting the 3825-3815 range.
Bulls Charge Ahead—Gold’s Path to 3835–3845Brothers, it seems that we were too conservative in setting the TP. Now gold has broken through 3810, far exceeding the TP: 3785 set in our last long transaction.
Because a large amount of safe-haven buying funds poured into the gold market, it continued to set new historical highs, stimulating gold to break through 3800 and continue its rise to above 3810, fully highlighting the strong bullish sentiment in the market. At present, with the support of fundamental factors that are bullish for gold, it is difficult for the gold market to reverse in a short period of time. At best, it is just a short-term adjustment.
In addition, we can look for wave patterns from the candlestick chart. From the previous trend, it is not difficult to see that after a short-term consolidation, gold will pull up and retrace to form a secondary low point, and then it will wave again to $75-80 to reach a new high. Then according to this rule, after the volatile rise, gold formed a secondary low near 3760 on Friday. If we look up to the fluctuation range of $75-80, gold is likely to continue to rise to the 3835-3845 area.
So, for current short-term trading. First of all, we still consider going long on gold.
1. If gold first retreats to the 3800-3790 area, we can prioritize going long on gold.
2. If gold continues its upward trend and first reaches the 3835-3845 area, we can consider going short on gold.
XAUUSD targeting 3860 with the 1H MA50 supporting.Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Channel Up pattern by turning its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support.
The last time it formed such a pattern after a -2.00% decline was during September 19 - 23. Both fractals are identical in structure both in 1H MA50 and Channel terms.
The previous Channel Up eventually peaked a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci, which more than covers our 3860 Target. The pattern gets technically invalidated if the 1H MA50 breaks.
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Gold Soars Past $3,800: Can Shutdown Fears Push Gold to $3,900?📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) has surged to a record high above $3,800, confirming strong bullish momentum within a rising channel. Price action is currently holding above the support zone at $3,774–3,786, while eyeing the next resistance cluster at $3,837–3,848. Beyond this, extended targets sit near $3,910–3,922, aligned with Fibonacci 1.618–2.618 extensions. The structure remains buy-the-dip as long as the channel support holds.
🎯 Trade Setup (Long)
Entry: $3,786–3,774 (on retest of support zone)
Stop Loss: $3,768
Take Profit 1: $3,837
Take Profit 2: $3,910
Take Profit 3: $3,922
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 7.71
🌍 Macro Background
Gold’s rally is fuelled by safe-haven flows as the US government shutdown risk looms. Investors are moving into gold amid uncertainty over budget negotiations in Washington, with shutdowns historically boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the Fed’s recent 25 bps cut and market pricing of another cut in October (88% probability) and December (65%) lower the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The August PCE inflation came in line with expectations (core +2.9% YoY, headline +2.7%), reinforcing the view that the Fed remains on a gradual easing path. However, hawkish commentary from Fedspeak later today could inject short-term volatility into the USD and cap gold’s momentum.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone 1: $3,837 – $3,848
Resistance Zone 2: $3,910 – $3,922
Support Zone: $3,774 – $3,786
📌 Trade Summary
Gold maintains a strong bullish structure, underpinned by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical + political risks. As long as $3,774–3,786 support holds, the bias remains long, targeting $3,837 initially and potentially $3,910–3,922 if momentum extends. Caution is warranted during Fed speeches, as hawkish tones could trigger short-lived pullbacks.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
GOLD (XAUUSD): More Growth is Coming?!
Gold was very bullish on Friday.
A formation of a buying imbalance candle accompanied by a confirmed
breakout of a significant intraday resistance suggest a strong bullish pressure.
With a high probability, the market will update the ATH again and will aim at 3800 psychological level.
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Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,740, consolidating below the descending trendline resistance. The support zone lies at $3,723 – $3,719, while the resistance zone is around $3,761 – $3,765. The price structure shows a “buy-the-dip” bias as long as support holds, but near-term pressure remains capped by the downtrend line. A breakout above $3,765 could open the path toward $3,785.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,719 – $3,723 (support retest)
Stop Loss: $3,715
Take Profit: $3,764 / $3,785
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.4
🌍 Macro Background
Markets await the US Core PCE Inflation data later today – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected PCE could strengthen the USD and pressure gold lower. On the other hand, a softer reading may revive rate cut expectations, supporting gold. Additionally, Trump’s new tariffs (100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on cabinets, 30% on furniture, etc.) and ongoing geopolitical risks with Russia provide safe-haven flows that keep gold attractive. Despite the USD holding at three-week highs, investors continue to see gold as a hedge amid policy uncertainty and trade tensions.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,764 / $3,785
Support: $3,723 / $3,719
📝 Trade Summary
The overall structure favours a buy-the-dip strategy near support zones, with upside potential toward $3,764 – $3,785 if US PCE comes in softer. However, a stronger inflation print may trigger a deeper pullback below $3,719. Traders should stay alert for volatility around the data release.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Gold Price Forecast – Long Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold price retraced from the 3777–3785 resistance zone and is currently consolidating during Asia Session. The chart indicates a solid support base around 3714–3723, while resistance is capped near 3777–3785. As long as price holds above support, the bullish bias remains intact, with potential to retest upper resistance.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry (Buy): 3723
Stop Loss: 3712
Take Profit: 3785
Risk/Reward (R:R): 1 : 5.62
🌍 Macro Background
Gold holds firm near $3,750 in early Asian trading, supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risks. The Fed has already cut rates by 25bps in September, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.00%–4.25%, with projections showing two more cuts this year and one in 2026. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting demand.
Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions — with NATO warning Russia over repeated airspace violations — continue to fuel safe-haven flows. However, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments about balancing labour market weakness with inflation risks may limit the upside momentum in the short term. Despite this, the medium-term structure still favours the bulls.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance (R): 3777 / 3785 / 3790
Support (S): 3723 / 3714
📝 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported by rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. A buy setup near 3723 with stops below 3712 and target at 3785 offers a favourable risk/reward profile. Sustained momentum above 3785 could open the path towards the 3800 psychological level.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Quick Gold Long: Playing the Rebound GameGold has now fallen below the 3755 area, disconfirming the ascending triangle formation in the short term. The price has continued to fall below the downward channel support around 37740, signaling a short-term shift from strength to weakness. However, since gold hasn't shown clear signs of a peak, and the decline hasn't been a cliff-like drop, but rather a volatile downward pattern, the current technical pullback remains within normal limits and hasn't reached the level of a reversal. Therefore, gold still has the potential to rebound after this pullback.
Gold has retreated to the 3730-3725 area. While the decline hasn't completely stopped, the decline has certainly slowed. Furthermore, this area offers some technical support. Gold may rebound in the short term after fluctuating within this area, potentially reaching the 3740-3750 range.
Thus, for short-term trading, we can initially consider going long on gold in the 3730-3725 area, with a short-term rebound target of 3740-3750.
Key Battlefield: Bulls vs Bears at 3700–3800Gold fluctuated in the 3780-3750 range during the day. Although gold is still in a bullish structure overall, the short-term direction is actually not very clear due to signs of gradually weakening bullish momentum.
However, from the perspective of morphological structure, gold shows signs of forming an ascending triangle in the short term. Once the ascending triangle is successfully formed, gold will still have the potential to rise and touch 3800, or even continue to rise to the 3820-3830 area with the support of this structure. After all, gold is only slightly weak, but there is no clear signal of reaching the top at present. The premise for maintaining the ascending triangle structure is that gold cannot fall below the 3755 area; so if gold cannot effectively fall below the 3755 area next, it is expected that gold will rebound again.
However, it should be noted that once gold falls below the area near 3755, the ascending triangle structure will not hold; it also proves that the current retracement space is insufficient and gold still needs to continue to retrace, then gold may continue the retracement trend to the 3740-3730 area.
Therefore, in the current short-term trading, before gold falls below the 3755 area, we can still try to go long on gold in the 3765-3755 area; once gold falls below the area near 3755, we need to consider changing direction from long to short!
GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold Holds Firm Near $3,760 Amid Fed Cut HopGold (XAU/USD) is trading steady around $3,760 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after a slight pullback from its record high of $3,791. The precious metal continues to draw support from expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand.
Fed Signals More Easing Ahead
Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “challenging” balance between persistent inflation risks and a softening U.S. labor market. He reiterated the Fed’s readiness to ease policy further if needed, strengthening market bets for additional rate cuts.
Futures markets are now pricing in two more 25 basis-point cuts in October and December, moves that would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold.
Market Outlook: Correction, Accumulation, and Uptrend Continuation
After a brief correction lower, Gold appears to be entering an accumulation phase, setting the stage for a potential next leg higher toward $3,800.
Technical View
From a short-term perspective, key technical indicators—EMA 34 and EMA 89—along with support and resistance levels, suggest that traders could consider a tactical SELL setup within the ongoing consolidation.
Immediate support: $3,740 – $3,720
Near-term resistance: $3,780 – $3,800
A well-timed sell order near resistance zones, with stops above the recent record, may provide an attractive risk-reward trade for short-term participants, while the broader long-term trend remains bullish.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bullish Signal
Gold looks very bullish this morning, forming a confirmed
Change of Character after a test of a key intraday horizontal support.
With a high probability, the price will rise more today and reach 3784 level.
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Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD is consolidating around $3,760, holding within a tight range after retreating from record highs near $3,791. The support zone sits at $3,752–3,754, while the resistance zone remains capped at $3,784–3,786. The structure suggests a possible bullish continuation if buyers defend support, targeting a retest of the highs.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,752 – $3,754 (buy near support)
Stop Loss: $3,749 (below support zone)
Take Profit: $3,784 / $3,786 (resistance retest)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 6.6
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,784 – $3,786
Support Zone: $3,752 – $3,754
Major Resistance Above: $3,791 (all-time high)
🌐 Macro Background
The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 bps rate cut and expectations for two more cuts (October and December) continue to underpin gold. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged challenges with inflation and labour market weakness, but emphasized flexibility on further easing. This supports gold as lower rates reduce opportunity cost of holding bullion. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia, particularly airspace violations and military escalation, further fuel safe-haven demand. However, traders are also eyeing the upcoming US PCE inflation data — a hotter reading could lift the USD and weigh on gold in the near term.
📌 Trade Summary
The bias favours long positions near $3,752–3,754, aiming for a move back toward $3,784–3,786. Holding above $3,752 keeps momentum bullish, while a break below would shift focus to $3,740 support.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Rejection Before 3800: A Final Window for ShortsDriven by market sentiment, gold has now reached a high of around 3792, just one step away from the 3800 mark. Judging from the current structure, gold is undoubtedly in a unilateral bull trend and has completely replicated the rising pattern of the previous wave, with almost no decent retracement during the rise.
Now gold continues to break through historical highs and enter unknown areas. In addition, due to the promotion of market sentiment, the current technical level has been distorted, so there is no good reference target at present. It can only be calculated based on space and cycle; the foreseeable upper limit area in the short term is in the 3820-3830 area; but because there are obvious signs of stagnant growth before reaching the 3800 mark, gold may be the first to experience a pullback.
Because gold is in an extreme rising mode, most funds may not have the opportunity to participate in long transactions, so in order to increase liquidity, gold also has a need for a retracement; however, because the current market enthusiasm remains unabated, it can be expected that the retracement space for gold is limited. The foreseeable retracement area is in the 3760-3750 area, and the second is in the area near 3730.
In addition, look at it according to the cycle. It is not difficult to see from the financial calendar that China, a major gold holder, will usher in the National Day holiday. Before the holiday, some funds may take profits, which will also lead to a decline in gold prices. After the holiday, gold may end its retracement and return to the upward trend.
So if you hold a short position, then when gold falls back to the 3760-3750 area, or even around 3730, it will be an opportunity for gold bears to get out of trouble. Once gold retreats to this area and escapes the predicament, it could be a good opportunity to re-enter the long position!
#XAUUSD: Neutral View On Gold May Go Either Side Gold has rallied to $3700 making it all time high level. However, at this moment gold remain uncertain as it can go either way of the trend. Therefore we have two point of view on current time; firstly since heavily bought, we can see a nice correction taking price to almosr 3550 area which remain crucial. The problem with this approach is we need strong confirmation snd currently we do not have. Second view is that price may continue the bullish approach and may take price to a record high.
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