Gold Soars Past $3,800: Can Shutdown Fears Push Gold to $3,900?📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) has surged to a record high above $3,800, confirming strong bullish momentum within a rising channel. Price action is currently holding above the support zone at $3,774–3,786, while eyeing the next resistance cluster at $3,837–3,848. Beyond this, extended targets sit near $3,910–3,922, aligned with Fibonacci 1.618–2.618 extensions. The structure remains buy-the-dip as long as the channel support holds.
🎯 Trade Setup (Long)
Entry: $3,786–3,774 (on retest of support zone)
Stop Loss: $3,768
Take Profit 1: $3,837
Take Profit 2: $3,910
Take Profit 3: $3,922
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 7.71
🌍 Macro Background
Gold’s rally is fuelled by safe-haven flows as the US government shutdown risk looms. Investors are moving into gold amid uncertainty over budget negotiations in Washington, with shutdowns historically boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the Fed’s recent 25 bps cut and market pricing of another cut in October (88% probability) and December (65%) lower the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The August PCE inflation came in line with expectations (core +2.9% YoY, headline +2.7%), reinforcing the view that the Fed remains on a gradual easing path. However, hawkish commentary from Fedspeak later today could inject short-term volatility into the USD and cap gold’s momentum.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone 1: $3,837 – $3,848
Resistance Zone 2: $3,910 – $3,922
Support Zone: $3,774 – $3,786
📌 Trade Summary
Gold maintains a strong bullish structure, underpinned by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical + political risks. As long as $3,774–3,786 support holds, the bias remains long, targeting $3,837 initially and potentially $3,910–3,922 if momentum extends. Caution is warranted during Fed speeches, as hawkish tones could trigger short-lived pullbacks.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Xauusdsignals
XAU/USD Metals Outlook: Bullish Path with Layered Buy Entry Plan🔥 XAU/USD: Thief’s Gold Heist Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 💰
🎯 Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) — The Shiny Metal’s Wealth Hunt!📈
Market: Metals Market
🏆 Strategy Vibe: Bullish Bandit Plan with a Thief-Style Layering Twist! 😎
🕵️♂️ The Thief’s Bullish Plan: Steal the Gold!
We’re diving into the XAU/USD market with a bullish swing/day trade setup using a slick Thief Layering Strategy. This involves stacking multiple buy limit orders to catch the price at key levels. No boring single entries here — we’re building a multi-layered trap to snag those pips! 🪤
📊 Key Setup Details
🎯 Entry Levels:
Deploy the Thief Layering Strategy with multiple buy limit orders at:
💰 3760
💰 3780
💰 3800
Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite! Stack those limits like a master thief planning a heist. 😏
🛑 Stop Loss:
Thief’s SL set at 3720.
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), this SL is my take — you’re the boss of your trades! Set your stop loss based on your risk tolerance. Trade smart, steal smarter! 💡
🎉 Take Profit Target:
Aim for the Electric Shop High Voltage Trap at 3920. This zone screams strong resistance, overbought signals, and a potential trap for the unprepared. Escape with your profits before the market zaps you! ⚡️
Note: Thief OG’s, this TP is my suggestion. Grab your profits at your own pace and risk level — make it rain when you’re ready! 💸
🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Dollar-Based Correlations)
Keep an eye on these USD-based pairs for market synergy and correlation:
FX:USDJPY : A stronger USD could pressure gold prices, so watch for inverse moves. If USD/JPY spikes, XAU/USD might dip. 📉
OANDA:USDCHF : Another safe-haven pair. If CHF strengthens, it could signal risk-off vibes impacting gold. 👀
TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Gold often moves inversely to the dollar. A rising DXY could cap XAU/USD’s upside — stay sharp! 🧠
OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver): Gold’s shiny cousin often follows XAU/USD’s lead. Check for confirmation in silver’s price action. ✨
Why Watch These? Correlations help you spot market sentiment. If USD strengthens across pairs, gold’s bullish run might face resistance. Use these as your Thief’s Radar to time your entries! 🕵️♀️
🔑 Key Points of the Thief Strategy
Layering Entries: Multiple buy limits spread risk and increase chances of catching a favorable entry. Think of it as setting multiple traps for the price! 🪤
Risk Management: The suggested SL at 3720 keeps losses tight, but adjust based on your account size and risk tolerance.
Resistance Watch: The 3920 zone is a high-voltage trap with overbought signals. Secure profits early to avoid getting caught in a reversal. ⚡️
Market Context: Gold thrives in uncertainty, so keep an eye on global events, Fed news, or inflation data that could spark volatility. 📡
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy crafted for fun and educational purposes. Trading involves risks, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and trade at your own risk. Stay sneaky, stay safe! 😎
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
#️⃣ #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #ThiefStrategy #SwingTrading #DayTrading #BullishSetup #ForexTrading #TradingView
GOLD (XAUUSD): More Growth is Coming?!
Gold was very bullish on Friday.
A formation of a buying imbalance candle accompanied by a confirmed
breakout of a significant intraday resistance suggest a strong bullish pressure.
With a high probability, the market will update the ATH again and will aim at 3800 psychological level.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,740, consolidating below the descending trendline resistance. The support zone lies at $3,723 – $3,719, while the resistance zone is around $3,761 – $3,765. The price structure shows a “buy-the-dip” bias as long as support holds, but near-term pressure remains capped by the downtrend line. A breakout above $3,765 could open the path toward $3,785.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,719 – $3,723 (support retest)
Stop Loss: $3,715
Take Profit: $3,764 / $3,785
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.4
🌍 Macro Background
Markets await the US Core PCE Inflation data later today – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected PCE could strengthen the USD and pressure gold lower. On the other hand, a softer reading may revive rate cut expectations, supporting gold. Additionally, Trump’s new tariffs (100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on cabinets, 30% on furniture, etc.) and ongoing geopolitical risks with Russia provide safe-haven flows that keep gold attractive. Despite the USD holding at three-week highs, investors continue to see gold as a hedge amid policy uncertainty and trade tensions.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,764 / $3,785
Support: $3,723 / $3,719
📝 Trade Summary
The overall structure favours a buy-the-dip strategy near support zones, with upside potential toward $3,764 – $3,785 if US PCE comes in softer. However, a stronger inflation print may trigger a deeper pullback below $3,719. Traders should stay alert for volatility around the data release.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Gold Price Forecast – Long Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold price retraced from the 3777–3785 resistance zone and is currently consolidating during Asia Session. The chart indicates a solid support base around 3714–3723, while resistance is capped near 3777–3785. As long as price holds above support, the bullish bias remains intact, with potential to retest upper resistance.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry (Buy): 3723
Stop Loss: 3712
Take Profit: 3785
Risk/Reward (R:R): 1 : 5.62
🌍 Macro Background
Gold holds firm near $3,750 in early Asian trading, supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risks. The Fed has already cut rates by 25bps in September, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.00%–4.25%, with projections showing two more cuts this year and one in 2026. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting demand.
Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions — with NATO warning Russia over repeated airspace violations — continue to fuel safe-haven flows. However, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments about balancing labour market weakness with inflation risks may limit the upside momentum in the short term. Despite this, the medium-term structure still favours the bulls.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance (R): 3777 / 3785 / 3790
Support (S): 3723 / 3714
📝 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported by rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. A buy setup near 3723 with stops below 3712 and target at 3785 offers a favourable risk/reward profile. Sustained momentum above 3785 could open the path towards the 3800 psychological level.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Quick Gold Long: Playing the Rebound GameGold has now fallen below the 3755 area, disconfirming the ascending triangle formation in the short term. The price has continued to fall below the downward channel support around 37740, signaling a short-term shift from strength to weakness. However, since gold hasn't shown clear signs of a peak, and the decline hasn't been a cliff-like drop, but rather a volatile downward pattern, the current technical pullback remains within normal limits and hasn't reached the level of a reversal. Therefore, gold still has the potential to rebound after this pullback.
Gold has retreated to the 3730-3725 area. While the decline hasn't completely stopped, the decline has certainly slowed. Furthermore, this area offers some technical support. Gold may rebound in the short term after fluctuating within this area, potentially reaching the 3740-3750 range.
Thus, for short-term trading, we can initially consider going long on gold in the 3730-3725 area, with a short-term rebound target of 3740-3750.
Key Battlefield: Bulls vs Bears at 3700–3800Gold fluctuated in the 3780-3750 range during the day. Although gold is still in a bullish structure overall, the short-term direction is actually not very clear due to signs of gradually weakening bullish momentum.
However, from the perspective of morphological structure, gold shows signs of forming an ascending triangle in the short term. Once the ascending triangle is successfully formed, gold will still have the potential to rise and touch 3800, or even continue to rise to the 3820-3830 area with the support of this structure. After all, gold is only slightly weak, but there is no clear signal of reaching the top at present. The premise for maintaining the ascending triangle structure is that gold cannot fall below the 3755 area; so if gold cannot effectively fall below the 3755 area next, it is expected that gold will rebound again.
However, it should be noted that once gold falls below the area near 3755, the ascending triangle structure will not hold; it also proves that the current retracement space is insufficient and gold still needs to continue to retrace, then gold may continue the retracement trend to the 3740-3730 area.
Therefore, in the current short-term trading, before gold falls below the 3755 area, we can still try to go long on gold in the 3765-3755 area; once gold falls below the area near 3755, we need to consider changing direction from long to short!
GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold Holds Firm Near $3,760 Amid Fed Cut HopGold (XAU/USD) is trading steady around $3,760 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after a slight pullback from its record high of $3,791. The precious metal continues to draw support from expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand.
Fed Signals More Easing Ahead
Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “challenging” balance between persistent inflation risks and a softening U.S. labor market. He reiterated the Fed’s readiness to ease policy further if needed, strengthening market bets for additional rate cuts.
Futures markets are now pricing in two more 25 basis-point cuts in October and December, moves that would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold.
Market Outlook: Correction, Accumulation, and Uptrend Continuation
After a brief correction lower, Gold appears to be entering an accumulation phase, setting the stage for a potential next leg higher toward $3,800.
Technical View
From a short-term perspective, key technical indicators—EMA 34 and EMA 89—along with support and resistance levels, suggest that traders could consider a tactical SELL setup within the ongoing consolidation.
Immediate support: $3,740 – $3,720
Near-term resistance: $3,780 – $3,800
A well-timed sell order near resistance zones, with stops above the recent record, may provide an attractive risk-reward trade for short-term participants, while the broader long-term trend remains bullish.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bullish Signal
Gold looks very bullish this morning, forming a confirmed
Change of Character after a test of a key intraday horizontal support.
With a high probability, the price will rise more today and reach 3784 level.
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Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD is consolidating around $3,760, holding within a tight range after retreating from record highs near $3,791. The support zone sits at $3,752–3,754, while the resistance zone remains capped at $3,784–3,786. The structure suggests a possible bullish continuation if buyers defend support, targeting a retest of the highs.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,752 – $3,754 (buy near support)
Stop Loss: $3,749 (below support zone)
Take Profit: $3,784 / $3,786 (resistance retest)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 6.6
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,784 – $3,786
Support Zone: $3,752 – $3,754
Major Resistance Above: $3,791 (all-time high)
🌐 Macro Background
The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 bps rate cut and expectations for two more cuts (October and December) continue to underpin gold. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged challenges with inflation and labour market weakness, but emphasized flexibility on further easing. This supports gold as lower rates reduce opportunity cost of holding bullion. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia, particularly airspace violations and military escalation, further fuel safe-haven demand. However, traders are also eyeing the upcoming US PCE inflation data — a hotter reading could lift the USD and weigh on gold in the near term.
📌 Trade Summary
The bias favours long positions near $3,752–3,754, aiming for a move back toward $3,784–3,786. Holding above $3,752 keeps momentum bullish, while a break below would shift focus to $3,740 support.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Rejection Before 3800: A Final Window for ShortsDriven by market sentiment, gold has now reached a high of around 3792, just one step away from the 3800 mark. Judging from the current structure, gold is undoubtedly in a unilateral bull trend and has completely replicated the rising pattern of the previous wave, with almost no decent retracement during the rise.
Now gold continues to break through historical highs and enter unknown areas. In addition, due to the promotion of market sentiment, the current technical level has been distorted, so there is no good reference target at present. It can only be calculated based on space and cycle; the foreseeable upper limit area in the short term is in the 3820-3830 area; but because there are obvious signs of stagnant growth before reaching the 3800 mark, gold may be the first to experience a pullback.
Because gold is in an extreme rising mode, most funds may not have the opportunity to participate in long transactions, so in order to increase liquidity, gold also has a need for a retracement; however, because the current market enthusiasm remains unabated, it can be expected that the retracement space for gold is limited. The foreseeable retracement area is in the 3760-3750 area, and the second is in the area near 3730.
In addition, look at it according to the cycle. It is not difficult to see from the financial calendar that China, a major gold holder, will usher in the National Day holiday. Before the holiday, some funds may take profits, which will also lead to a decline in gold prices. After the holiday, gold may end its retracement and return to the upward trend.
So if you hold a short position, then when gold falls back to the 3760-3750 area, or even around 3730, it will be an opportunity for gold bears to get out of trouble. Once gold retreats to this area and escapes the predicament, it could be a good opportunity to re-enter the long position!
#XAUUSD: Neutral View On Gold May Go Either Side Gold has rallied to $3700 making it all time high level. However, at this moment gold remain uncertain as it can go either way of the trend. Therefore we have two point of view on current time; firstly since heavily bought, we can see a nice correction taking price to almosr 3550 area which remain crucial. The problem with this approach is we need strong confirmation snd currently we do not have. Second view is that price may continue the bullish approach and may take price to a record high.
Team Setupsfx
XAUUSD Very aggressive Bullish Leg started.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a remarkable bounce just after marginally breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and reaching the bottom of the 1-month Channel Up, which is technically the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
The previous one extended all the way to +10.65% (which gives us a $4000 long-term Target) before the 4H RSI started to decline on Lower Highs, which on a sidenote gave us the bullish confirmation required when the RSI broke above them today.
On the short-term however, we are looking for a much more plausible Target at $3800, which has been the standard mini-rally sequence that this Channel Up has offered.
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Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,693, bouncing from the support zone at $3,688–$3,685. The chart highlights a bullish continuation setup, with price action aiming towards the resistance zone $3,703–$3,707. The strong rebound from support underlines sustained buyer interest, while momentum remains positive above $3,685.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,688 – $3,685 (near support rebound)
Stop Loss: $3,684 (below support)
Take Profit: $3,703 / $3,707 (resistance zone)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 4.98
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,703 – $3,707
Support Zone: $3,688 – $3,685
Major Resistance Above: $3,716 all-time high
Key Support Below: $3,672
🌐 Macro Background
Gold remains supported after the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut, its first of 2025, which reflects rising concerns about labour market softness. While Fed Chair Powell stressed a cautious “meeting-by-meeting” approach to further easing, markets still expect additional cuts this year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—ranging from Russia’s intensified military actions in Ukraine to persistent conflicts in the Middle East—continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. However, traders remain attentive to upcoming Fedspeak for fresh signals on policy direction, which could add volatility.
📌 Trade Summary
The technical setup favours a long entry around $3,685–$3,688, targeting the $3,703–$3,707 resistance area. The bias stays bullish above $3,685, but a break below could signal a deeper retracement towards $3,672.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Gold Lures Bulls In — But Correction LoomsAfter the start of the Asian session, gold continued its upward momentum to around 3692. However, it is obvious that after touching this horizontal area, the upward momentum of gold has converged, and there are obvious signs of stagflation. Moreover, judging from the trading volume, the current trading volume is not enough to support the continued rise of gold. So I think gold may usher in a good wave of pullback at any time after the rise.
From a technical perspective, gold has formed a "double-needle bottoming" structure in combination with the areas near 3628 and 3632. However, since the correction near 3707, gold has shown a clear downward trend. Therefore, according to time and space, under normal circumstances, gold is still in an oscillating structure and may find it difficult to break through the resistance of the 3675-3680 area in a short period of time. But the fact is that on Friday, stimulated by the news, gold not only broke the volatile pattern that should have appeared, but also broke through the resistance of 3675-3680 in one fell swoop; when the time and space are not yet in place, the intention of gold's sharp rise may be to eliminate the short chips that have been recently arranged before gold really starts to pull back, and there is also suspicion of luring the bulls who follow the trend.
Based on space calculations, it is expected that the maximum rise in gold this time will not exceed the 3710-3715 area, and it may even start to pull back again before reaching this area. Therefore, we should not be excessively bullish on gold at this point. On the contrary, we can still short gold in batches above 3680, and the retracement target will first target the 3665-3655-3645 area.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Rise to All-Time High Confirmed
There is a high chance that Gold will continue rising next week,
following a completion of a correctional movement on a 4H time frame
with a confirmed bullish Change of Character CHoCH.
Odds are high, that the price will rise to 3707 level,
with a highly probable update of ATH.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Below 3670, shorting gold is still the main theme!After touching 3661, gold has repeatedly tested downwards today. However, this testing period repeatedly found support in the 3645-3640 area, failing to break further below. Judging from the current gold structure, gold as a whole shows a volatile and bearish trend. Although gold closed with long lower shadow candlesticks near 3627 and 3632 respectively, showing signs of bottoming out in the short term, it only exacerbated short-term volatility. Due to the obvious selling pressure from above, I expect that the rebound space for gold in the short term will be relatively limited.
According to the current gold structure, gold will face resistance in the 3665-3675 area in the short term. According to the current market performance, it may be difficult to break through this horizontal area easily in the short term. After all, there is considerable selling pressure from above. So for short-term trading, as long as gold remains below 3670, we can boldly short gold! However, because today is Friday and gold has failed to fall below the 3645-3640 area many times, it is best not to have too high expectations for the retracement space. Perhaps the 3655-3650 area will be a reasonable retracement target in the short term.
XAU/USD: Dip-Buyers Step In, Targeting a Fresh Push Higher📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,652 after slipping below the $3,660 handle. The chart shows that price is holding near the support zone at $3,640–$3,635, while sellers capped upside momentum at the resistance zone $3,678–$3,684. Current structure suggests range-bound consolidation, with potential for a bullish rebound if buyers defend the support area.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,635 – $3,640 (near support)
Stop Loss: $3,631 (below support zone)
Take Profit: $3,678 / $3,684 (resistance zone)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 4.87
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,678 – $3,684
Support Zone: $3,635 – $3,640
Major Resistance Above: $3,700 round figure
🌐 Macro Background
Gold remains pressured after the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, which was less dovish than markets hoped. Powell’s cautious rhetoric supported a USD rebound, weighing on bullion. Still, the Fed’s projection of two more cuts in 2025 underpins medium-term bullish momentum for gold as real yields could decline further. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide safe-haven support, limiting deeper downside.
📌 Trade Summary
The bias favours a long entry near $3,640, aiming for the $3,678–$3,684 resistance zone. Price action remains constructive as long as $3,635 support holds. A decisive break below could open downside risks toward $3,620.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
9/18: Trade Within 3674–3638 Range, Watch Resistance Near 3670Good morning, everyone!
Those who followed yesterday’s strategy should have made good profits—congratulations!
Currently, the price is hovering near the 3658 support. For today, the main resistance is around 3670–3680. If this level is broken and held, there’s potential to retest the 3700 area. If not, the bullish momentum may weaken.
On the 1H chart, if the next move forms a strong bullish candle (medium/large green candle) to break through, the probability of further upside will increase, giving bulls more opportunities. However, if the price continues to face heavy resistance without breaking, watch out for bears who may launch an attack. Key supports to watch are 3647 and 3636–3632. If these levels break, the 1D trend will show a reversal, with a drop below 3600 very likely, and deeper corrections possibly extending to the 3560 area.
Intraday strategy:
Trade within the 3674–3638 range.
If the 3680 resistance is broken strongly, look for buying opportunities on a pullback or consider selling near 3688 or higher.
If 3650 breaks, look to sell on rebounds near resistance, or consider buying opportunities below 3630.
Adjust trades flexibly according to market changes.
Rate Decision Looms: Short Sellers Poised to StrikeGold continued to decline and is currently supported around 3660 and showing signs of rebound. I don’t hold any orders at the moment because I am currently preparing for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision news market! In fact, I have made part of the plan yesterday and today. Until now, I still tend to believe that the gold market will rise and then fall, but we must grasp the trading rhythm and entry price in the transaction.
In fact, before the Fed's interest rate announcement, gold retreated to around 3660. After this significant retreat, we can lower our expectations for a gold rally on news. Based on the current structure, the upper limit for gold bulls lies in the 3710-3720 area, and it's possible that the 3703 area has become the current high.
As gold retreats to around 3660, bullish momentum has weakened, and short-term resistance has shifted to the 3680-3690 area. Therefore, I might consider initiating a short position in gold in this area. If gold falls below the 3660-3650 range due to market news, it could continue its decline to the 3635-3625 range.
Since we currently hold no positions, we have the initiative in trading. As long as we allocate lots appropriately and strictly control risk, it's difficult not to make a profit! So, let's wish you good luck!