Fed Cuts Could Ignite a Breakout Above $3,700?📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,682 after bouncing from the support zone at $3,678 – $3,679. The chart highlights a bullish setup, with potential continuation towards the resistance zone $3,691 – $3,695. The short-term trendline break also supports renewed upside momentum, while buyers remain in control above the support base.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,678 – $3,679 (near support zone)
Stop Loss: $3,677 (below support)
Take Profit: $3,691 / $3,695 (resistance zone)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 7.17
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,691 – $3,695
Support Zone: $3,678 – $3,679
Major Resistance Above: $3,700 psychological barrier
Key Support Below: $3,674
🌐 Macro Background
Gold is firming up as markets await the FOMC decision, with traders widely expecting a 25 bps Fed rate cut—the first in 2025. The prospect of further cuts later this year supports gold as a non-yielding asset. However, easing US-China trade tensions and improved risk sentiment could limit haven flows in the short run.
📌 Trade Summary
The technical setup favours a long entry near $3,679, targeting the $3,691–$3,695 resistance area. The bias remains bullish while gold holds above $3,678 support. Watch for volatility around the Fed decision later today.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Xauusdsignals
GOLD New High Record Break Gold New High on the Way! 🔥
Current Price: 3635
📈 Buy Entry Active — Target 3690
✨ Gold is in full bullish control.
✨ Buyers pushing strongly toward new record highs.
✨ Market confidence remains unshaken.
✨ Every dip is being bought instantly.
✨ Strong fundamentals + technicals support upside.
✨ Next resistance is ready to be tested soon.
✨ A breakout above 3690 can open doors for even higher levels.
✨ This could be the start of another major rally.
⚡ Don’t wait — secure your position now before the breakout run begins!
XAUUSD Could top in September but long term looks bright.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 2 years and right now it is unfolding its latest Bullish Leg. That started after the previous pull-back/ consolidation phase (May - July) hit and found Support on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
This trend-line has been Gold's major Support and buy entry since mid-October 2023. Every pull-back on/ near it, kick-started a Bullish Leg, the weakest of which has been +16.59% and the strongest +23.75%.
Since April 15 2024, the 1D RSI Resistance has been a great indication of when to sell (equally for buying the Support), so even though we expect the current Bullish Leg to complete a +22.06% rise at least, we will be looking at the RSI Resistance more closely to time the sell.
The subsequent pull-back should bounce on the dashed pivot trend-line and naturally again on the 1D MA100, which will be a buy opportunity towards the ultimate long-term Target of 4300 (+22.00% again).
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Rally Before the Fed: A Trap or Treasure for Bears?Gold hit a new high again, and the current highest has reached around 3685. After gold consolidated at a high level for several trading days, the bulls launched a strong attack again, and it seems that there are signs of trying to hit 3700. However, the current gold market is at a critical node and cycle, so I do not advocate continuing to chase gold; on the contrary, I will choose to short gold at every high as the gold price rises!
Gold rose sharply as the Federal Reserve was about to announce its interest rate decision, and hit a new high again! Against the backdrop of interest rate cut expectations, it is easy to push market sentiment to a climax! When the market is caught in a long-term frenzy, it may also be an opportunity for large funds to quietly exit the market. Therefore, I think the purpose of gold's sharp rise before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision is very clear. The first is to reserve room for decline for the news market in advance, and the second is to attract most retail investors in the market to take over. So I think the turning point of gold is coming soon!
So for short traders, I think this rise is not a risk, but an opportunity! Gold may collapse based on the phenomenon of "buying expectations and selling facts", so I think we need to short gold at its rallies before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. However, I would like to point out that when shorting gold in batches, we must control the number of lots traded to reduce trading risk!
For short-term trading, I believe we can short gold in batches above 3680, with a short-term retracement target of 3660-3650. If gold falls below this area, it may even continue to retrace to the current rising point of 3635-3625.
Bearish Pressure Mounts: Will 3600 Hold or Collapse?In the short term, gold has not been able to stand above 3655 during multiple rebounds, and even closed below 3650 at the close of last Friday. Although it is far from the level of collapse, there are obvious signs of profit-taking in some chips. As the center of gravity of gold slowly shifts, the short-term resistance area will gradually move down to the 3635-3645 area. If gold cannot break through this area during repeated fluctuations, the market's downward momentum will be further strengthened!
It should be noted that although the center of gravity of gold is gradually shifting downward, the overall bullish structure is still maintained; and against the backdrop of interest rate cut expectations, gold's retracement space should be limited before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. The first thing we need to pay attention to is the support of the recent low point of 3615-3605. Gold is likely to rebound again after testing the support of this area, and take this opportunity to try to intensify short-term volatility! However, once gold falls below the support of this area, it may continue to the 3590-3580 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading, since gold is still fluctuating in the support and resistance areas, it can be treated as regional fluctuations for the time being; but as the center of gravity of gold gradually moves downward and 3675 is expected to become a temporary high point, we can maintain the strategy of shorting at high levels as the main strategy, supplemented by the idea of going long at low levels.
1. Consider shorting gold against the resistance zone of 3635-3645, with the primary retracement target at 3620-3610.
2. If gold fails to break below the 3615-3605 area during a pullback, we could consider going long on gold, with the primary rebound target at 3630-3640.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Resistance 1: 3641 - 3674 area
Resistance 2: 3696 - 3704 area
Support 1: 3612 - 3626 area
Support 2: 3559 - 3580 area
Support 3: 3510 - 3521 area
Support 4: 3489 - 3500 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD/GOLD Daily Sell Projection (13.09.25)📌 Chart Overview
Pair: XAUUSD / Gold Spot vs USD
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Projection: Sell Setup
🔹 Key Technical Zones
Major Resistance Zone
Around 3,696 – 3,680 level.
Confluence with trendline resistance.
Resistance Levels
R1: Near 3,650.
R2: Near 3,696.
Major Support Levels
S1: ~3,600.
S2: ~3,579 – 3,580.
🔹 Bearish Signals
Price has touched major resistance & trendline (marked “OBEY”).
Increase in seller dominance (demonetization of buyers visible).
Shooting Star candle pattern at resistance → indicates possible reversal.
🔹 Trade Idea
Entry: Near resistance rejection (3,680–3,696 zone).
Target: Towards 3,600 – 3,579 supports.
Stop Loss: Above major resistance / 3,696 zone.
Bias: Short-term sell projection while price respects resistance.
🔹 Special Note
Marked OBEY FVG zone (Fair Value Gap) → indicates that price is likely to fall into that area but won’t break below 3,579 support strongly unless fundamentals shift.
Overall bias: Sell from resistance, book profits at support
3600 Support Holds Firm;Gold Oscillates, Awaiting CPI for BuyingAfter gold broke through 3670, a sharp correction occurred. Currently, the support at 3600 still holds, and gold is oscillating in the range of 3620-3640. The release of today's U.S. CPI data may increase the market's bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. However, before the Federal Reserve releases its news, the overall market will still continue to move upward, and pullbacks present better buying opportunities
Buy 3600 - 3620
TP 3640 - 3650 - 3660
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
9/11: Double Top Pattern, Bearish OutlookGood afternoon, everyone!
Yesterday, the market showed limited volatility, with prices capped around 3343–3358, failing to break through, which delayed the expected downward cycle.
Today, the trend looks clearer:
A double-top pattern has formed;
Price tested the 23 support for the first time and rebounded slightly;
Key resistance levels are 32–37, followed by 41;
If the rebound fails to break resistance, the 23 support is very likely to be broken;
Main supports to watch are 3610 (2H chart) and 3578–3550 (4H chart).
🔹 Trading Strategy
Focus on short positions;
Try quick long trades near support, but avoid being greedy;
If rebounds fail at resistance, shorts may accelerate, so risk is relatively high.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes $3,650 Ahead of CPI 📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) may rebound from the support zone $3,627–3,630, and buyers are gradually regaining control. Price action now challenges the resistance zone $3,642–3,647, with a breakout paving the way toward $3,650+.
🎯 Trade Setup (15M Chart)
Entry (Long): $3,630–$3,627
Stop Loss: $3,625
Take Profit: $3,642 / $3,645
🌐 Macro Background
Gold stays supported by Fed rate cut bets, a weaker USD, and geopolitical tensions. US August PPI came in softer, reinforcing rate cut expectations ahead of Thursday’s CPI release (forecast 2.9% headline / 3.1% core). Meanwhile, safe-haven demand is lifted by Poland shooting down Russian drones and Israel’s Doha strikes. While event risk remains, the broader backdrop continues to favour gold upside momentum.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,642 / $3,645 / $3,650
Support: $3,630 / $3,627
📌 Trade Summary
Gold maintains bullish traction above $3,630, with scope for a move toward $3,642–$3,645, though traders should stay cautious ahead of US CPI.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Bulls vs Bears: Race to 3700 or 3600 ?!Currently, gold is fluctuating above the 3640 line. We can clearly see that gold has not effectively fallen below 3640 during multiple pullbacks in the short term. This proves that during the pullback period of gold, a lot of funds have entered the market, thereby pushing the gold price to fluctuate upward. However, during the upward fluctuation, gold encountered resistance and fell back in the 3655-3660 area many times, exacerbating the short-term volatility trend!
But we need to note that gold has rebounded since 3620 and formed a band-like low point structure; and it has tested 3640 many times and has not fallen below it, showing signs of forming a band-like secondary low point structure. Judging from the characteristics of the low point gradually rising, the current bullish force has a slight advantage, so short-term trading is still dominated by going long on gold.
Judging from the current structure, the short-term support area below is located in the 3635-3625 area, followed by the 3615-3605 area; and the short-term resistance is located near 3660. If gold breaks through the area near 3660 during the volatile upward process, gold may test the high point area near 3675. Once the high point near 3675 is refreshed again, it is expected to directly touch around 3700.
Therefore, it is not completely certain that gold has peaked at present, and we should not blindly chase short gold in trading; on the contrary, when gold retreats to the support area of 3635-3625, we can try to go long on gold, first aiming at the target area: 3660-3670, and once it breaks through this area, the target area will be postponed to the 3690-3700 area.
High-Level Consolidation: A Playground for Both Bulls and BearsToday, I clearly predicted that "cyclical patterns suggest a 600-pips drop in gold." Gold surged to around 3675 before retreating, reaching a low of around 3626, a fluctuation of 490 pips. It was very close to my expectation, so according to my trading model, I won a big victory in long and short trading today!
Day Trading Results:
1. First, we shorted gold near 3658 and closed the trade at TP: 3638, for a profit of 200 pips.
2. We shorted gold twice at 3655-3656, closing the positions manually at 3647 and 3645, respectively, for a total profit of 190 pips.
3. We shorted gold in batches near 3667 and 3673, closing the trade at TP: 3650, for a total profit of 400 pips.
4. We longed gold in batches near 3632 and 3628, closing the trade at TP: 3642, for a total profit of 240 pips.
Thus, today's total profit on both long and short trades was 1030 pips. I am very satisfied with today's trading model and results.
As for my view on the gold market in the future, I believe that the current gold market is still in an environment of interest rate cut expectations, and the macroeconomic background still has a significant supporting effect on gold. The current bullish trend of gold has not changed, and short-term fluctuations will not affect the overall direction. Therefore, before the interest rate cut is implemented (the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on September 17), gold will still maintain an upward structure.
Judging from the candlestick chart, as long as gold remains above 3600, gold will remain in a bullish structure and maintain an overall upward trend. Although gold began to retreat after touching around 3675, and the bullish momentum no longer seems strong, I believe that gold has limited room for retreat in the short term. Even if the bulls no longer recover their previous strong momentum, gold is expected to maintain a high-level volatile trend, with the short-term support below at 3630-3620. If it is difficult for gold to fall below this area in the short term, gold may still hit the 3670-3680 area during the rebound.
Therefore, in the next short-term trading, if gold first retreats to the 3630-3620 area, we can consider trying to go long on gold, first looking at the 3650-3660 target area;If gold touches the 3670-3680 area again during the rebound, we can still try to short gold again, and the retracement target will first look at the 3655-3645 area.
Gold’s Power Play: Bubble or Break?After gold touched around 3659 during the day, it retreated to our primary target area as expected: 3640-3630 area. In this short transaction, we actually made a profit of 200pips, which is a relatively good trade.
There is no doubt that gold is still in a unilateral upward trend and may continue to around 3670 in the short term, but at the current stage, I would rather wait and see on the sidelines than rush to chase the rise in gold, because I really don’t want to be hanging on a tree and swinging.
What is unstoppable is that I will still try to short gold by touching the top in the high area along the current trend line. Judging from the recent fluctuations, since I don’t have the courage to chase the rise of gold, in order to participate in market transactions, I will try to short gold based on the principle of touching the high point of the trend line. It is not too difficult to earn a profit margin of 100-200 pips in short trading. According to the current trend line constructed, the current upward extension space is around 3670, while the intraday high is around 3660.
Therefore, in short-term trading, we can still continue to try to short gold by using the short-term high point area of 3660-3670 as resistance. The primary short-term target is still the 3640-3630 area. Once gold falls below this area, the target area will be moved to the 3610-3600 area.
XAUUSD Stable uptrend eyes quick rise to $3695Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 1H time-frame lately, fueled mainly by its 1H MA20 (red trend-line), with the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) acting as the last Support.
Right now it is holding the 1H MA20 and as long as it does, we expect it to repeat at least a +1.87% Bullish Leg, similar to the last two. Our immediate Target is $3695.
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Breaking Free: How Bears Can Win Back in GoldAfter touching the trend line resistance area of 3640-3650, gold fell back as expected, showing a high "doji" in the hourly candle chart and signs of stagflation. It is expected to become a market turning point in the short term. The gold market may usher in a good correction in the short term due to this technical turning point. However, we need to note that as long as gold remains above 3580, the current situation is still a strong bullish pattern, so we must pay attention to the extent of the retracement.
As gold continues to rise, the current short-term support is at 3620-3610, so I think it is necessary for gold to retrace its support in this area. Once gold is supported in this area, it may rebound again and retest the high area of 3640-3650. If gold falls below the short-term support area of 3620-3610, then gold will further retrace its steps to 3590-3580, which is the lifeline of bulls and the dividing line between bulls and bears.
If gold falls below the 3590-3580 area during the backtest, the current gold bull advantage will no longer exist, and the bears will likely regain control of the situation. As most long funds take profits and the market experiences panic selling, gold will completely turn into a bearish trend and fall further.
At present, I still hold short position in gold, and first aim at the short target area: 3620-3610 area. Once gold falls below this area, the target area will be postponed to 3600-3590 area. I am currently holding my short position and have already realized some profits. I very much hope that gold will fall back to the target area as expected!
Gold - Intraday Long Setup (5M TF) | Smart Money + Elliott Struc# 🟢 Gold - Intraday Long Setup (5M TF) | Smart Money + Elliott Structure
**Pair:** Gold Spot / USD
**Timeframe:** 5M
**Session:** London / NY Overlap
**Type:** Intraday Long Idea
**Concepts:** Smart Money, Supply & Demand, Wave Analysis, SSL Confirmation
---
## 🔍 Market Context
The market is currently reacting inside a **key Demand Zone** on the 5-minute timeframe, following a strong bearish move during the London session. The structure suggests a corrective **ABC wave formation**, where the **(c) point** appears to be forming a potential higher low at demand.
- Point **(a)**: Marked the first impulse down
- Point **(b)**: Rejection at minor **Supply Zone**
- Point **(c)**: Retest of **POI at Demand**, showing signs of exhaustion in selling pressure
---
## 📈 Technical Confluences
- 🟦 **Demand Zone** active and respected
- 📏 Potential BOS (Break of Structure) upon break of the recent high
- 📊 **Vol %ile** = 83% → Above average participation
- ⚠️ Risk Level: High (tight structure, requires confirmation)
- 🧭 Entry Distance: Near
---
## 🔧 Indicators Status (SSL Hybrid)
| Indicator | Status |
|--------------------------|----------|
| SSL Channel | ✅ Bullish cross (supporting reversal)
| RSI (50) | ✅ Holding above midpoint
| MACD | ✅ Bullish crossover (early signal)
| BB Oscillator / HT / RQK | ❌ Still bearish (lagging)
---
## 🎯 Trade Idea
**Bias:** Long
**Trigger:** Break above **minor Supply** and formation of BOS
**Target Zones:**
1. **TP1:** 3,370
2. **TP2:** 3,378 (supply edge)
3. **TP3:** 3,385 (upper supply zone)
**SL:** Below point (c) @ **~3,357**
---
## 🧠 Notes
This setup is valid as long as price holds above the Demand Zone and confirms a bullish shift via BOS. Wait for clear confirmation before entering.
_This is an educational idea based on Smart Money + Elliott Wave principles – not financial advice._
---
#gold #smartmoney #supplydemand #elliottwave #sslhybrid #intraday #5mtf #tradingview
Turning the Tables: Bears’ Guide to Profit in GoldDriven by the dual influence of interest rate cut expectations and the job market, gold prices continue to rise and reach new highs. This is entirely a game played by big money at this stage. Buying sentiment in the gold market is currently so high that most of the time, there's no opportunity to even enter a long position. Therefore, after considering the possible phenomenon of "buying expectations and selling facts", while controlling risks, I carefully tried to short gold. Although I suffered losses frequently, I also made a good profit overall because I successfully captured the volatility.
Currently, gold continues to rise and has reached a high of around 3637. In fact, according to its wave pattern, gold may experience a pullback at any time. This is why I insist on shorting gold today.
The 1st wave: Gold rose from around 3405 to around 3508, a 3.1% increase with a fluctuation of $105.
The 2nd wave: Gold rose from around 3470 to around 3578, a 3.16% increase with a fluctuation of $108.
The current wave: Gold rose from around 3512 to its target of around 3637, a 3.5% increase with a fluctuation of $124.
According to the trend of price fluctuations, gold has reached and, to a certain extent, exceeded the previous two waves, so a pullback is possible at any time.
Furthermore, given that intraday fluctuations have been between $30 and $50 in recent days, and the intraday fluctuation of gold from around 3580 to around 3637 reached $57, a short-term pullback is highly likely.
However, because the bullish momentum of gold is strong, I will continue to try to short gold before a clear peak signal appears, but I may appropriately lower my expectations for gold's pullback, that is, appropriately lower my expectations for profit margins. My current short position entry prices are: 3612, 3621 and 3636. Basically, I add positions every time the fluctuation is 100-150pips. I currently hope that gold can retreat to the area around 3610-3600.
Critical Zone 3610–3620:Shorts Get Ready!After retreating to around 3579, gold rebounded again and has now reached a high of around 3614. Fortunately, the gold retracement gave us the opportunity to safely exit our previous short positions, and we accurately seized this pullback opportunity to close all our previous short positions at a break-even point.
As I said, closing my short position does not mean that I am not optimistic about the gold pullback, but in the process of executing swing trading, we need to constantly adjust to make our short entry price more favorable to us. Therefore, closing the short position entered at a relatively low price previously gives us the flexibility to enter the short position again at a higher price.
Gold was quickly pulled up to around 3614 in the short term. There was almost no headwind in the short term. Driven by the dual expectations of interest rate cuts and risk aversion demand, the bullish momentum was strong. However, in the short term, we are currently facing the 3610-3620 trend line resistance area, so I still do not advocate continuing to chase more gold; on the contrary, no matter what, I will continue to try to execute swing trading to short gold in the 3610-3615 area.
Although the bulls have risen strongly, it does not actually provide a good position to enter the market to go long on gold. Since we cannot participate in long transactions, we can only try to short gold in waves during constant adjustments. On the premise of controlling trading risks, as long as we are not afraid of short-term floating losses, once gold begins to collapse, we will be the first traders to reap the benefits of the short position. Therefore, when gold is facing the trend line resistance area of 3610-3620, I first considered and executed a short trade at 3610-3615 as planned, hoping that the gold market will have a good retracement as some unsteady funds show signs of profit-taking!
Extended Pullback Ahead: A Golden Opportunity for ShortsDue to the stimulation of the NFP market, gold continued to refresh its historical highs, continued to break through the recent high of 3578, and touched the 3600 mark as expected. According to the current market structure, the bullish momentum of gold is strong, and there is no obvious peaking signal in the short term. As the center of gravity of gold continues to rise, the current short-term support will move up to the 3570-3550 area, and the short-term strong support is near the 3530 area.
However, in this extreme market, we shouldn't blindly chase gold at high levels to avoid being buried in a crash. Two key details emerge from this:
1. Gold experienced a significant pullback near 3578, retreating to around 3511.
2. Gold failed to hold above 3600 before Friday's market close, falling back to around 3586, indicating some profit-taking.
Furthermore, the current surge in the gold market is driven by news and, to some extent, has deviated from technical indicators. Market sentiment is extremely euphoric, making it vulnerable to a sudden collapse during this period. Furthermore, after this period of digestion, expectations of a rate cut have largely faded, potentially leading to a potential exit by large investors and panic selling.
Therefore, I do not think that chasing gold at high levels is a rational and correct strategy. Gold may still retrace to the 3570-3550 area in the future, or even continue to retrace to the area around 3530. Of course, this is another opportunity to make short profits in the short term.
I currently hold a short position with the average price around 3582. If you also hold a short position like me, I think we can seize the profit opportunity of the gold pullback next!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Time For Correction
Gold nicely respected 3600 psychological level.
The market was rejected from that on Friday
and formed a bearish imbalance candle before closing.
I think that we can expect a retracement at least to 3577 level.
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Gold Rockets Toward 3600 on NFP—How Can Shorts Escape?After the NFP market unexpectedly broke out, gold is currently testing the 3600 mark, and the bullish momentum is strong. However, when gold is facing the pressure of the 3600 psychological level, it is showing signs of stagflation at a high level. So I still think that before gold completely stands above the 3600 mark, it is still necessary for gold to retreat first.
Because the gold market rose sharply under the influence of the NFP market, many investors were unable to intervene in the market in time, and even some investors who had already bought gold at high prices were not determined. Therefore, once gold experiences stagflation at a high level, some unsteady chips may first consider taking profits, thereby triggering panic selling; on the other hand, the gold market has risen sharply, and off-market wait-and-see funds dare not enter the market easily. Due to the lack of liquidity, gold may lead to weak continuity, so there is also a need for a pullback to increase liquidity!
I still hold a short position in gold, with an average entry price of around 3582. Although there is a certain floating loss at present, the risk is still controllable and within expectations, so there is no need to be too nervous for the time being. I still expect gold to retreat to the 3570-3560 area before the market closes today.