Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) extended its bullish run, reaching a new three-week high around $4,213, before encountering selling pressure near the Resistance Zone ($4,210–$4,216). The metal is now consolidating, with intraday support forming near $4,183–$4,188, aligning with the previous breakout level.
The short-term structure suggests a potential corrective dip before another push higher, as long as support holds above $4,181. A retest of the $4,212–$4,216 zone remains the primary upside target, while failure to sustain above support could expose the $4,170 area.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy on dip near support, targeting retest of recent highs.
Entry: $4,188 – $4,183
Stop Loss: $4,181
Take Profit 1: $4,211
Take Profit 2: $4,216
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.23
A close below $4,180 would invalidate the bullish setup, suggesting deeper retracement toward $4,170–$4,165.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold remains well-supported amid dovish Fed expectations and lingering economic concerns, despite a stronger risk appetite following the U.S. government reopening.
FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani commented that “Gold hits a three-week top as dovish Fed bets offset U.S. government reopening optimism.” 【FXStreet】
Fed Policy Outlook: Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, as weak job data and soft inflation expectations weigh on the U.S. Dollar.
Labor Market Signs: Revelio Labs reported 9,100 job losses in October, with government payrolls down by 22,200, while the Chicago Fed noted a slight uptick in unemployment — reinforcing the view that economic momentum is fading.
Government Reopening: The U.S. Senate’s approval of a funding bill ended the longest government shutdown in history, sparking risk-on sentiment in equities. While this reduces safe-haven demand, the weaker macro backdrop keeps gold resilient.
Fed Commentary: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged that the job market remains balanced but warned against easing too slowly, emphasizing limited inflation risk — a stance the market interprets as mildly dovish.
In short, while risk sentiment caps near-term upside, monetary easing bets and weak macro data continue to underpin gold’s medium-term strength.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,211 – $4,216
Support: $4,183 – $4,188
Psychological Level: $4,200
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains bullish above $4,183, with the bias favouring a buy-on-dip approach. As long as support holds, the metal is likely to rebound toward $4,211–$4,216, following its breakout momentum from earlier this week. The underlying macro tone continues to favour buyers in the medium term.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Xauusdsignals
Gold Trade Set Up Nov 12 2025Price is trading within a range between PDH and PDL and has swept both internal BSL and SSL so i will wait for more structure to be formed on the 5m looking for buys either from internal SSL or for price to push lower to PDL before looking for buys from that level. Theres also daily FVG under PDL which will act as strong support if it reaches there
"Trading is a lonely journey, but the most rewarding""Trading is a lonely journey."
I had heard that saying a long time ago, but only when I stepped onto this path did I truly understand what it meant. On the first day I placed a trade, I thought everything was simple , just a few clicks, a few flickering green and red numbers, and I could make money. But the deeper I went, the more I realized that behind the screen was a cold, silent world where I was the only one facing myself.
No one understands the feeling of watching your account evaporate in just a few seconds. Nor can anyone share the tiny joy of a winning trade, because most outsiders only see the results — not the sleepless nights, not the heartbeats racing with every moving candle. Gradually, I learned to stay quiet : no more bragging about profits, no more complaining about losses. Trading taught me that emotions are the cruelest enemy.
There are days I stare at the chart until my eyes ache, my head spinning from those merciless price waves. I ask myself, “Am I really going in the right direction? Is trading even meant for me?” But then, in silence, I open my laptop again - analyze, take notes, place orders, as if it’s a habit I can’t let go of. Every loss hurts, but it also makes me stronger . I’ve learned to accept being wrong, to be disciplined, and to live with loneliness.
Trading isn’t just a battle with the market, it’s a battle with your own ego . It’s lonely, yes, but not meaningless. In that silence, I can hear my own thoughts more clearly ,my limits, and my desire to rise beyond them. Maybe only those who have walked this path can truly understand: behind every click lies countless emotions, unseen scars that only traders carry.
Trading is a lonely journey — but it’s also one of the most valuable journeys of all.
Try harder my friend! ;)
ANFIBO_
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Better Buy than Sell today [11.12.2025]Hello guys, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading within a sideways range between 4145 and 4100, showing signs of compression as the market awaits a potential breakout. After an extended bullish phase, price is now consolidating, creating equilibrium between buyers and sellers before the next directional move. The nearest key support zone lies between 4075 – 4095, followed by deeper demand areas around 4040 and 4006, which could serve as ideal buy setups if price retraces. Given the overall market structure and sustained bullish sentiment, I continue to favor Buy positions over Sell setups for today’s session.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> BUY ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4075 – 4090
SL: 4070
TP: 4130 – 4150
(2) ENTRY: 4035 - 4045
SL: 4030
TP: 4090 – 4120 – 4150
(3) ENTRY: 4110 - 4115 (scalp/small vol)
SL: 4100
TP: 4140 - 4150
Risk Management:
- Prioritize Buy setups in line with the dominant trend; Sell only for short-term scalps.
- Keep stops tight, as a breakout can invalidate range setups quickly.
- Maintain a Risk:Reward ratio ≥ 1:2 on all trades.
- Avoid overtrading before the breakout confirmation.
Conclusion:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently consolidating within a narrow sideways channel, but momentum continues to favor the bulls. As long as the price holds above 4075, the structure remains constructive, and the next bullish leg could form anytime upon breakout confirmation. My bias today stays bullish, focusing on buying dips near key supports and managing risk tightly until the market reveals its next move.
HAVE A WONDERFUL DAY, GUYS! ;)
Gold Price Forecast | Smart Money Levels (Nov 12, 2025)OANDA:XAUUSD GOLD ANALYSIS - What’s Moving the Market Today?
(Updated: November 12, 2025)
💠 Trade with DECRYPTERS
We keep it simple - Smart Money zones define the battlefield. Follow institutional footprints, not noise.
🔮 ASTROLOGY INSIGHT
Mercury ♂ Mars = Mixed → Bearish if risk-on
Expect volatility and fake-outs near resistance as sentiment stays uncertain.
📊 MARKET OVERVIEW
Gold trades around $4,135-$4,145, showing resilience despite U.S. dollar swings.
* DXY slips to ~99.35 amid shutdown uncertainty and weaker risk tone.
* Fed holds rates steady at 3.75–4.00%; next cut odds at 55% for December.
* Central banks continue strong buying (+220t in Q3, led by Poland’s +67t).
* ETF inflows remain firm at +222t - investor demand steady.
* Geopolitical tensions (Mideast + US–China tariffs) sustain safe-haven flows.
Gold remains locked between institutional buy/sell blocks, Smart Money setting up heavy positions from 4,028–4,206.
🧭 SMART MONEY LEVELS (LIVE UPDATE)
Smart Money Sell Area: 4206–4191 → Major liquidity zone; rejection likely.
Sell Reaction Zone: 4165–4153 → Intraday resistance, ideal for quick fades.
Smart Money Buy Area: 4028–4011 → Deep liquidity accumulation zone for swing buys.
📍 Millions in pending institutional orders rest within these zones.
📅 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
* Nov 13 CPI: Expect ~3.0% core, shutdown delays may trigger volatility.
* Dec FOMC: 55% odds of a 25bps cut; Fed cautious until full data returns.
* Geopolitical Risk: Mideast or tariff escalation = 🟢 bullish spike.
Resolution = 🔴 USD rebound → gold pressure.
Break Zones:
🔸 Hold above 4,120 → targets 4,165–4,170
🔸 Break below 4,100 → slide toward 4,050–4,028
🎯 TRADE PLAN
Stay tactical — trade zones, not emotions.
* Buy Dips: 4,090–4,120 → Targets 4,150–4,170
* Sell Rallies: 4,165–4,190 → Stops above 4,206
Bias remains bullish while above 4,120; short-term sentiment may turn mildly bearish if risk appetite improves.
🧠 CONCLUSION
Gold remains supported by central bank demand and geopolitical risk, even as Fed policy and DXY limit major upside.
Expect range-bound volatility with bullish lean above 4,100.
Trade reaction, not prediction.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) extended its advance, reaching $4,147–$4,156, its highest level in over two weeks. The structure shows a bullish bias as the price consolidates above $4,120, with buyers likely to defend the Support Zone at $4,105–$4,111.
The Resistance Zone at $4,147–$4,156 aligns with a short-term overbought area where some profit-taking may occur. However, as long as the price remains above the $4,111 support, momentum favours a continued push toward the upper boundary of the channel.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy near support, targeting a retest of resistance at $4,150–$4,156.
Entry: $4,111 – $4,106
Stop Loss: $4,105
Take Profit 1: $4,147
Take Profit 2: $4,156
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 6.53
A confirmed break below $4,105 would invalidate this setup and may trigger a correction toward $4,092.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold’s momentum remains firm, buoyed by rising Fed rate-cut expectations and soft U.S. labour data, even as the U.S. government shutdown nears resolution.
FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted, “Gold extends gains toward $4,150 as weaker U.S. jobs data and dovish expectations lift investor sentiment.” 【FXStreet】
Labor Market Weakness: According to ADP data, U.S. private-sector job creation fell by an average of 11,250 jobs per week in late October — signalling a slowdown in labour demand after the firm previously reported gains. This reinforces expectations that the Fed could deliver another rate cut by year-end.
Fed Outlook: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 68% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, and nearly 80% odds by January 2026, supporting gold’s medium-term bullish tone.
Government Shutdown Update: Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by centrist Democrats, expected to end the record-long shutdown. This could marginally reduce safe-haven demand but is unlikely to shift gold’s structural momentum, as macro risks persist.
Fed Speakers Ahead: Comments from Fed officials John Williams, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and others later today may offer further guidance on the December policy path. Any dovish tone could extend gold’s rally beyond $4,156.
In short, while the resolution of the shutdown could momentarily weigh on gold’s safe-haven appeal, soft employment data and high odds of a December rate cut remain powerful bullish drivers.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,147 – $4,156
Support: $4,106 – $4,111
Psychological Level: $4,150
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported above $4,110, with strong upward momentum likely to retest $4,147–$4,156. A buy-on-dip strategy near $4,111–$4,105 remains preferred as long as support holds. The bullish bias persists while the Fed cut outlook strengthens.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
#XAUUSD: We are up 1040+ pips from our previous setup! Gold has risen from 3268 to 3364, helping us make substantial positive gains. However, after reaching the $3364 region, the price dropped around 3310 and has since been fluctuating between 3310 and 3340, making it challenging to trade. There’s a possibility that the price might touch 3400 once again before it drops.
Good luck and trade safely.
Thanks for your support! 😊
If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do:
- Like our ideas
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Team Setupsfx_
❤️
XAUUSD(GOLD): +1874 PIPS Target| Touching $3600? Gold experienced a significant price surge, driven by the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. This heightened uncertainty among global investors led to a price touch of $3445. The current price is accumulating, and we anticipate a strong bullish distribution in the near future. Please prioritise accurate risk management during trading.
Good luck,
Team Setupsfx_
Gold - Pattern that Pays
Gold - Pattern that Pays
The chart really speaks for itself.
◻️ The 100 DSMA (blue line) has been a great level for buying / bouncing of price.
◻️ Price falls during corrections to the 100 DSMA.
◻️ Pennants show price compression until price revisits 100 DSMA & then price continue upwards.
◻️ Its important to understand that at some stage in the future, the pennant will fail, price will fall out of the bottom of the pennant, which is where your stop should be placed. This is a real possibility after such a big gold run.
◻️ Breakouts from the upper part of the pennant (orange circles) are another great place to double down on a position, and appears to be a good confirmation of continued upside.
Keep the "cost of mistakes low" with your SL.
My stop loss will be 10% under the 10 DSMA line. I do not automate this because stop loss hunting by exchanges is rife this past several years. So I will manually bow out at approx. 10% price drop from entry, unless I believe it is a stop/liquidation sweep. Given my positions are a small 2 - 3% of my portfolio I am fine having high conviction and willing to lose 10% on these high conviction plays.
Furthermore, it is highly likely gold is on a multi year secular bull market, however, it is probable that we are entering a period where Gold stalls for a few years, so... this is an opportunity to stack and hold Gold for that 2 - 3 year timeframe.
The above chart is to trade on weekly and monthly timeframe, however there is an argument to build a long term stack, in the event a 2 - 3 year correction / sideways move materializes. Gold could be a good place to stack profits from other trades over a 12 - 36 month timeframe, for those of you that are seeking to park profits into some long term safety that gains....for those of you patient enough to execute that
Stay Patient and keep you mistakes cheap
P
XAUUSD: Watch for a breakout during the U.S. sessionThe Gold is basically oscillating within a narrow range now, but the U.S. session is bound to break out of this range.
Gold has been consolidating for nearly a month, and finally, the consolidation ended at the end of October and the beginning of November. As the bullish momentum emerged, gold staged a bottoming rebound. As I’ve said before, in a strong upward trend, it’s unwise to call the top prematurely.
For trading strategies, I still recommend prioritizing buying on pullbacks, with support below held at the key integer level of 4100.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 4120 - 4130
SL 4110
TP 4140 - 4150 - 4160
Sell 4160 - 4155
SL 4170
TP 4145 - 4035 - 4025
GOLD: Still prioritize buying on pullbacksIn terms of gold's current pattern, the strong momentum built up after a continuous upward move is likely to extend significantly. We remain bullish on the gold market for now. The short-term resistance above is around 4145, which will also be our primary target going forward. On the downside, support is held at the key integer level of 4100, a level that serves as one of the primary retracement points for short-term bullish corrections. Operationally, we prioritize buying on pullbacks.
From the 4-hour chart analysis, the support below will continue to lie around the 4090-4110 range, while the short-term resistance above is focused on 4145-4150. If gold stabilizes above 4150, it may surge toward 4180 today. In trading, we maintain the strategy of buying on pullbacks and should avoid blindly chasing the rally.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 4110 - 4120
SL 4100
TP 4140 - 4145 - 4150
Sell 4150 - 4145
SL 4160
TP 4125 - 4020 - 4015
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Black Friday, but hit $4200 soon [11.11.2025]Well, Anfibo's here again!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD has moved exactly according to my yesterday’s plan, delivering an impressive 750 Pips of profit — a phenomenal start to the new trading week. The bullish structure remains firmly intact, and momentum continues to show strength as price pushes higher toward major resistance zones. For today, my expectation is that XAUUSD will extend its upside move toward the $4,200 region, which also aligns perfectly with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension on the higher timeframe — a strong confluence level where profit-taking is highly likely. At this zone, I will secure additional profits from yesterday’s buy positions and closely monitor price action for potential sell signals.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 4185 – 4205
SL: 4210
TP: 4150 – 4130
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 4075 - 4090
SL: 4065
TP: 4140 – 4190 - 4200
Risk Management:
Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
Keep stops tight, as bullish extensions can reverse sharply at major confluence zones.
Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading during high volatility spikes.
Reassess market bias once price reacts clearly around the $4200 fibo confluence zone.
Conclusion:
Gold continues to reward trend-following strategies as it pushes toward the $4200 target zone. This level will be crucial for today’s session, as it represents both a psychological barrier and a strong fibo confluence. I will lock in further profits on buys once price reaches this region and will only consider sells if price action confirms a reversal pattern.
HAVE A NICE DAY, GUYS!
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Effort to Breakout??? [11.10.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading at the upper boundary of its sideways H1 channel, a key decision point where market sentiment is being tested. This resistance zone has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price during the current consolidation phase. The question now is whether this level will once again trigger a technical pullback, or if bullish momentum—supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—will be strong enough to deliver a clean breakout and start a new impulsive leg upward. Price action today will be crucial in determining whether gold continues ranging or transitions into a breakout phase.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> BUY ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4040 - 4050
SL: 4030
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
(2) ENTRY: 4070 - 4080 (small vol)
SL: 4065
TP: 4135 – 4150 - 4200
Risk Management:
- Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
- Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals.
- Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions.
- Reassess market bias once the H1 channel is decisively broken.
Conclusion:
Gold is sitting right at the “make-or-break” zone of its sideways channel. This area will tell us whether the market plans to reject and pull back, or gather enough momentum for a powerful breakout. As always, we remain flexible: trade the range until it breaks, and prepare to shift bias immediately if a confirmed breakout occurs.
HAVE A WONDERFUL NEW WEEK GUYS!
ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (11/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)
1. Market Overview
Gold opens the Asia session trading near $4,110–$4,115, sustaining the strong bullish momentum from Monday’s US rally. Price action continues to respect the ascending channel structure, but early divergence signals hint at slowing momentum. Bulls maintain control while price holds above $4,097, with short-term consolidation expected before a potential continuation toward $4,130–$4,145.
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
Daily (D1)
• The daily candle closed bullish above the key level $4,100, confirming a BOS and maintaining structure after the $4,013 breakout.
• RSI ~59 indicates momentum still healthy with room to extend toward $4,150–$4,180.
• Support sits around $4,085–$4,075, which aligns with prior demand and EMA50 confluence.
H1
• Price consolidates within an ascending channel; structure is intact with consistent higher lows.
• RSI hovering near 70 with MACD flattening, showing early exhaustion.
• 200EMA provides dynamic support near $4,095, key zone for intraday buyers.
15M–5M
• Short-term trend remains bullish with visible CHoCHs and BOSs confirming continuation.
• However, candles show rejection at $4,115–$4,118, forming potential liquidity traps before a corrective pullback into the Golden Zone.
• Intraday RSI divergence present on 5M, suggesting potential retracement before next impulse.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Swing 4,087 → 4,116)
• 38.2% → $4,105
• 50.0% → $4,101
• 61.8% → $4,097
🎯 Golden Zone: $4,105 – $4,097 (Key re-entry area for continuation)
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Primary Bias)
• Entry Zone: $4,105 – $4,097 (Golden Zone / EMA50 retest)
• Targets: $4,120 → $4,130 → $4,145
• Stop Loss: Below $4,090
• Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or CHoCH on 5M/15M chart after retest.
✅ Confluence: EMA structure + previous BOS + Fibonacci support.*
⸻
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Countertrend Pullback)
• Entry Zone: $4,115 – $4,120 (Upper channel + RSI 75 divergence)
• Targets: $4,105 → $4,097 → $4,087
• Stop Loss: Above $4,125
• Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle or BOS break below $4,109.
⚠️ Countertrend only — potential short-term retracement before continuation.
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT SETUPS
• Bullish Breakout: Above $4,120 → Retest $4,115 → Targets $4,130 → $4,145 → $4,165.
• Bearish Breakout: Below $4,087 → Retest $4,090 → Targets $4,075 → $4,065.
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• Asia Session: Expected quiet volatility; focus shifts toward liquidity buildup pre-London.
• Key Theme: Market pricing in softer USD ahead of upcoming US CPI release later in the week.
• DXY: Below 106 continues to support gold upside bias.
• Sentiment: Mildly bullish unless DXY rebounds sharply.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Zone Level Remarks
Resistance 1 4,115 Short-term cap, watch for breakout
Resistance 2 4,130 Intraday extension
Resistance 3 4,145 Major target
Support 1 4,105 38.2% fib
Support 2 4,097 61.8% fib / Golden Zone
Support 3 4,087 Key structure base
Breakout Triggers >4,120 (Bullish) / <4,087 (Bearish) Confirmation zones
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
Gold’s momentum remains intact with clear bullish market structure across all timeframes. The current consolidation under $4,115 indicates possible accumulation before a new leg up. Traders should monitor $4,105–$4,097 as the high-probability re-entry area for continuation buys.
Only a clean break below $4,087 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and shift attention back to $4,075–$4,060.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
📊 Bias: Bullish-to-neutral above $4,097; expecting continuation to $4,130–$4,145.
🛑 Invalidation: Bearish below $4,087 (structure break).
⸻
🥇 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 – PERFORMANCE 10/11/2025 🥇
📊 Swing precision meets intraday consistency.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🪙 XAU/USD (GOLD)
🟢 BUY (SWING) +710 PIPS
🟢 BUY +20 PIPS
🟢 BUY +210 PIPS
🟢 BUY +110 PIPS
🔻 SELL +20 PIPS
🟢 BUY +210 PIPS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💰 TOTAL PIPS GAIN: +1,170 PIPS
📊 6 Trades → 6 Wins | 0 SL | 0 BE
🎯 Accuracy: 100%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔥 Clean momentum continuation on GOLD with strong bullish swing setups and precise intraday confirmations.
👏 Congratulations if you profited! ✅✅✅🚀🚀🚀
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 💼
XAUUSD: Gold $3500 NextGold currently trading at a very key level from where we think price can reverse, there are three targets if the trade setup get activated. Remember to risk appropriately based on your own risk management. If you like our idea then do consider liking and commeting it means a lot to us.
For further information, please read the chart thoroughly which will give you better idea.
good luck
Team Setupsfx_
XAUUSD Could Be Bullish If It Stabilizes at This LevelGold surged to its highest level in more than two weeks as traders recalibrated expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, following weak US jobs data and worsening consumer sentiment.
The precious metal's gains came despite progress in ending the US government shutdown, as signs of an economic slowdown continued to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
- Sell Setup (Short position): A sell position is valid below 4102, targeting 4056 / 4025 / 4004.
- Buy Setup (Long position): A buy position is valid above 4102, targeting 4155 / 4189.
📌 Key Points
Gold remains bearish below 4102, with potential for a decline towards 4056–4025 after a possible correction to 4090–4102.
Only a confirmed 1-hour or 4-hour close above 4102 would shift the bias to bullish continuation, targeting 4155–4189 next.
XAUUSD Has it started a Bear Cycle according to the Dollar??Gold (XAUUSD) may be rising early into the week on news of a potential U.S. government opening but remains heavily rejected from the Highs of the past 3 weeks.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY illustrated by the black trend-line) has been staging its first legitimate bottom since December 2020 and is rebounding. That DXY's bottom came a few months after Gold's top for that Cycle. The result was the start of Gold's new 2-year Bear Cycle.
In fact that DXY bottoming pattern was also present in 2011, right before Gold topped this time. This suggests that the current DXY bottom has the potential to start a new multi-year rally, hence a new Bear Cycle for Gold.
This pattern is further strengthened by the fact that Gold has formed a Quadruple Top on its 1W RSI Resistance Zone, similar to both of its previous Cycle Top patterns since 2011.
Is the Dollar signaling a Bear Cycle on Gold?
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Gold: 4050 brokenGold prices are showing an upward trend today, currently hovering around 4044, with the intraday high having broken through the key resistance level of 4050. This indicates that bullish momentum has strengthened in the short term, driving prices higher.
After breaking through 4050, the short-term resistance levels above lie in the 4060-4080 range. The short-term support level below is around 4020, which is a previous dense trading zone and thus has a certain supporting effect, while the key support level is at 4000.
In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue their upward momentum, but may face some resistance around 4060. If they can effectively break through this resistance level, prices may surge toward 4080 or even higher. Conversely, if they encounter resistance and pull back around 4060, they may consolidate within the 4020-4060 range.
Trading Strategy:
Sell 4050 - 4055
SL 4060
TP 4035 - 4025 - 4015
Buy 4030 - 4035
SL 4020
TP 4050 - 4060 - 4070
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) has broken above short-term descending trendline resistance and is now hovering near $4,045–$4,050, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The breakout was supported by strong buying from the $4,011–$4,017 Support Zone, where previous consolidation occurred.
The Resistance Zone lies between $4,054–$4,061, which may act as the next upside target before a potential pullback. The current structure suggests a bullish continuation setup, favouring buying on dips toward the newly established support around $4,011–$4,017.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy on dip after breakout, targeting higher resistance.
Entry: $4,011 – $4,017 (support retest)
Stop Loss: $4,008
Take Profit 1: $4,054
Take Profit 2: $4,061
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.65
If gold sustains above $4,061, it could extend further toward $4,080–$4,100, marking a continuation of the bullish breakout sequence.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold prices extended gains to around $4,050 in Monday’s Asian session, supported by renewed rate-cut expectations and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment.
FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted that “Gold edges higher amid concerns over the U.S. economy as markets increase bets on Fed rate cuts.” 【FXStreet】
Labor Market Weakness: U.S. Challenger job cuts surged to 150,000 in October, the highest for that month in over two decades. The spike signals growing softness in the job market and fuels expectations that the Fed could act sooner to support growth.
Rate-Cut Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing demand for the metal.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan (UoM) Index fell to 50.3 in November (vs. 53.6 in October), a three-and-a-half-year low, reflecting economic pessimism.
Shutdown Resolution: Reports from Bloomberg indicate the U.S. government shutdown could soon end as Senate Democrats support a funding deal. While this slightly eases safe-haven demand, it does not offset the dovish macro bias currently favouring gold.
Overall, the weakening labour data, falling consumer confidence, and rising rate-cut bets create a constructive macro environment for gold, especially if the Fed adopts a more accommodative tone into December.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,054 – $4,061
Support: $4,008 – $4,020
Psychological Level: $4,050
📌 Trade Summary
Gold broke above short-term resistance, with momentum shifting firmly bullish toward $4,060. The current bias favours buying dips near $4,011–$4,017, targeting the upper resistance band at $4,054–$4,061. A sustained break above this zone could open the path toward $4,080–$4,100.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.






















