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XMR Accumulation Time, dont miss the entrySUMMARY - DW no longer accepts BTC, the demand for this has increased significantly as many more users must acquire this to transact on that platform. Technicals lean bull This post will be broken down by Section 1 - Metcalfes law X XMR Section 2 - Technical Overview 1. Quick refresher: Metcalfe’s Law (applied correctly) Metcalfe’s Law says: Network value ∝ (number of active users)² Key word: active. Not holders. Not speculators. Participants who actually need the network to function. This distinction matters a lot for XMR. 2. Forced migration ≠ organic adoption — but it still counts If BTC is no longer accepted on a platform and users are forced to use XMR, you get: Immediate increase in: Active wallets Transactions Liquidity demand Not just “interest” — usage From a Metcalfe perspective: This is high-quality node growth Each new user must interact with others using XMR That creates real network connections, not passive edges This is actually stronger than speculative onboarding. 3. Why XMR benefits more than BTC under Metcalfe’s Law BTC already has: Massive user base Diminishing marginal network effects Many users who don’t transact XMR has: Smaller but high-intent user base Utility-driven usage (privacy, censorship resistance) Much higher marginal value per new user In Metcalfe terms: Adding 100k forced users to BTC barely moves the needle Adding 100k forced users to XMR can reshape the network graph This is convex growth. 4. The “forced-use flywheel” Here’s where it gets interesting. When a platform forces XMR usage: Users acquire XMR Merchants hold or recycle XMR Liquidity deepens Infrastructure improves (wallets, bridges, rails) Friction drops XMR becomes default elsewhere (DW) That’s second-order network expansion, which Metcalfe’s Law underestimates. BTC already ran this loop years ago. XMR is still early in it. 5. Price impact vs network value Metcalfe’s Law explains value, not price timing. Forced adoption increases velocity Velocity increases liquidity premiums Liquidity premiums reduce risk Reduced risk raises valuation multiples Price pressure increases because XMR must be held and circulated Supply is relatively inelastic (tail emission still small vs demand spikes) This is why XMR often moves in step-function jumps, not smooth curves. 6. The critical risk (and limitation) Metcalfe’s Law only holds if: Users stay after the forcing function They reuse XMR beyond that platform OTHERWISE DW may also start accepting ZEC If users: Enter → transact → exit immediately Or use custodial wrappers that abstract XMR away Then the network graph does not densify, and the effect fades. Persistence matters more than onboarding count. 7. Net assessment If BTC is banned and XMR is forced: MOST LIKELY SCENARIO Structural demand increase Durable network expansion Nonlinear valuation impact WORST CASE Temporary volume spike Short-term price volatility Minimal long-term effect but with a long term floor at 200, the R:R is favorable But asymmetry favors XMR. Metcalfe’s Law applies extremely well to XMR in forced-adoption scenarios because: XMR users are active by necessity Each new user adds disproportionate network value Privacy coins scale through usage density, not hype TECHNICALS 1. Trend & Structure (Weekly) Primary trend: Still up on the higher timeframe. Price is well above the 200-week MA (~203) → long-term bull structure intact. the last 3–4 candles show distribution / pullback behavior after a blow-off top near ~$600–650. This appears to be a retracement rather than a trend reversal as there are still signs of price acceleration. This looks like a healthy weekly pullback, not a trend break—yet. 2. 200-Week Moving Average (Orange) Strong historical cycle support 3. Bollinger Bands (20, 2) Upper band expansion preceded the spike = classic volatility expansion Price tagged the upper band hard, then snapped back inside Current candle closing near the BB midline (~403) This is mean reversion, not breakdown This is textbook post-impulse behavior. 4. Volume Huge volume spike on the recent sell-off candle Volume spike occurred above the 200-week MA Often this marks local bottoms, not tops, on higher timeframes **Watch next 2–3 weekly candles** Falling price + falling volume = bearish continuation Flat price + declining volume = consolidation Green candle + solid volume = next leg setup 5. MFI (Money Flow Index – 14) Currently around 51 Previously overheated near 70+ Now reset to neutral without entering oversold MFI holding 40–50 zone = accumulation range 6. Key Levels to Watch Support ~$400 → BB midline + psychological ~$350 → prior structure + consolidation zone ~$300 → must-hold for bull continuation ~$200 → macro support Resistance ~$450–480 → local supply ~$550–600 → prior high close TLDR; Im going to ACCUMULATE. Not financial Advice and for research/entertainment purposes only =)
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by LDAKyle
3
Monero at support, I get a feeling that it isn't overJust as there is a reaction at resistance; whenever a strong resistance level is hit, the market always produces a retrace or correction. In reverse, when the action reaches support a reversal can happen even if only a small one. Monero is now trading at support after three red weeks. The session that produced the all-time high can also be considered negative. Now, trading at support, there can be a reversal and this reversal can lead to a challenge of the same resistance from last month. It works in two ways. If the bullish reversal stops around $600-$650 we know a lower high will result followed by lower prices. If the rise can go beyond this level, we know the ATH range can be tested as resistance once more. If Monero can go toward a new all-time high fully depends on price action—live. It is hard to make such a prediction because the market already produce outstanding growth so anything goes. Lower high, double-top or higher high, the chart calls for a reaction at support. This means some sort of bullish action before XMRUSDT moves lower. There is growth potential on this chart. Since the entire market is turning bullish now, this supports the signals here present for a new rising wave. Namaste.
by MasterAnanda
1
XMR Trade Setup – Eyes on the Reversal ZoneXMR is currently ~50% below its ATH, with recent price action unable to hold above the critical $410 resistance. This breakdown has opened the door to further downside, with the next major support zone becoming a key area to watch. If sentiment improves, this zone could act as a reversal base. 🔍 Potential Entry Zone: $323 – $343 This range aligns with historical demand and may attract fresh buyers. It's where I'm looking for a reaction before confirming any setup. 🎯 Targets: TP1: $410 TP2: $480 TP3: $620 🛑 Stop-Loss: $296 Below key structure – protects against deeper breakdowns. Waiting for confirmation in the zone. Risk management is key. 🕒 Patience wins. Let price come to you.
Long
by Richtv_official
#XMR Just Flipped Control – Bears Are Running Out of Time Yello Paradiser!, are you aware that #XMR has been signaling the exhaustion of its bearish cycle long before the recent breakout even occurred? The structure has been quietly transitioning from distribution into accumulation, and the market is now starting to reveal that change. 💎#XMR shows a clear deceleration of downside momentum from one descending channel into another. In Elliott Wave theory, this behavior is commonly seen during the late stages of a corrective or impulsive decline, particularly as wave 5 begins to lose strength. This structural compression strongly suggests that the downtrend was nearing completion. 💎The recent breakout from the descending channel is technically critical. Price has decisively crossed above the top of wave 4, which confirms a Change of Character (CHoCH). A bullish divergence on the RSI between wave 3 and wave 5. This is a classic confirmation of wave 5 termination and increases the probability that a trend reversal is already in progress. 💎The breakout occurred with a sharp and impulsive move to the upside, which is characteristic of a wave 1 or wave A advance. Such price behavior reflects strong demand entering the market and confirms that buyers have regained control of the short-term structure. 💎From here, two primary Elliott Wave scenarios remain valid. #XMR may be starting a new impulsive bullish cycle in the form of a 1–2–3–4–5 structure, or it may be developing a corrective ABC or WXY rally within a larger-degree bearish trend. Regardless of the macro labeling, both scenarios point toward one more strong upside expansion before any meaningful correction occurs. 💎Key resistance is located at the top of the larger-degree wave 4, around the $650 region. This level represents the natural target for the current advance and could be exceeded if the move develops impulsively. On the downside, major structural support is located near $410. Strive for consistency, not quick profits Paradisers. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. This is the only way you will make it far in your crypto trading journey. Be a PRO💰 MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
4
[LOI] - Levels of Interest - SCRT - SCRT Key Points Secret Bridge for XMR Enhances Privacy in Cross-Chain Transfers: It addresses exposure risks in standard bridges by enabling confidential bridging of Monero (XMR) to Secret Network as sXMR, preserving anonymity while allowing DeFi participation without revealing transaction details. Long-Term Bullish Outlook for SCRT: Driven by growing demand for programmable privacy in DeFi and AI. Crypto Macro Influences: Recent oil seizures and tariffs may boost illicit trade (estimated at $2-3 trillion globally), increasing need for privacy tools like SCRT; pro-crypto shifts under Trump could spark altcoin growth, but economic pressures like inflation might delay it. AI Push in Privacy Landscape: Secret Network leads with confidential AI via TEEs, ensuring private data processing; this aligns with rising enterprise adoption (projected 60% by 2027) amid data breach concerns, potentially positioning SCRT as a hub for secure AI. Please note that this is a preliminary research paper and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information. TheBitcoinGeneration Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by
Long
by SirGalahad-QUANT
1
Structure Still Bullish On XMR (3D)📈 Bullish Market Structure From the point where the green arrow is marked on the chart, price has clearly entered a strong bullish phase. Based on the current price behavior, market structure, and wave development, this movement strongly resembles a Bullish Diametric pattern, which typically appears during complex corrective structures before continuation. At the moment, price is moving inside Wave F, which is the current active leg of this pattern. Importantly, Wave F has already delivered a healthy and controlled correction, both in price and structure. This correction is constructive and aligns well with the characteristics expected in a valid Diametric formation. 🟢 Key Support Zone & Market Expectation The green highlighted zone on the chart represents a high-probability support area. From this region, we expect price to: Hold above support Spend some time building a base (accumulation) Complete a time correction rather than a deep price correction After this consolidation phase, the market is expected to transition into Wave G. 🚀 Wave G Outlook – Bullish Continuation In a Bullish Diametric pattern, Wave G is inherently bullish and often leads to a strong continuation move in the direction of the main trend. If the structure plays out as expected, Wave G could deliver a powerful impulsive move, pushing price toward the predefined upside targets. 🎯targets : Targets : 668$ _ 1100$ 💡 Trading Strategy – Smart Risk Management The green zone is considered an optimal DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) entry area Avoid chasing price; let the market come to your levels Scale into positions gradually to manage risk effectively This approach allows traders to stay flexible while positioning themselves early for the anticipated bullish expansion. ❌ Invalidation Level – Risk Control Is Key This analysis will be invalidated if: A weekly candle closes below the invalidation level marked on the chart A weekly close below this level would signal a structural failure of the pattern and require a full reassessment. If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you. This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here.
by behdark
2
XMR +150% Since Last Analysis | Key Levels to WatchMonero (XMR) has delivered a strong performance, rallying over +150% since our last published idea. This momentum reflects growing demand for privacy-focused assets and resilience in the altcoin sector, even as broader market sentiment remains mixed. That said, we’re closely watching Bitcoin’s structure — continued BTC weakness could trigger a pullback in XMR. Any sustained drop in BTC may weigh on alts and send XMR back toward lower support zones before the next bullish leg. 📌 Trade Setup Entry Zone: $480 – $501 Targets: $555 / $605 / $690 Stop Loss: $438 Maintain a disciplined approach and adjust risk management according to broader market conditions. Monitoring BTC price action will be crucial here.
Long
by Richtv_official
Can LITECOIN replicate MONERO's rally??Just some fun chart trivia but we can't deny the obvious. And that's that Litecoin (LTCUSD) has been printing an (almost) identical price action since 2017 with Monero (XMRUSD). That's up until a little less than a year ago when the two started to diverge aggressively as XMR (orange trend-line) entered a massive rally that broke above its ATH Resistance of the past 2 Cycles and made a new All Time High (ATH), while LTC has been under Lower Highs. However it hasn't broken below its Bull Cycle consolidation, which also shared with XMR before the latter broke aggressive to the upside. So what do you think? Can LTC follow XMR's lead and make an ATH or it will continue dropping into the new Bear Cycle? --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:LTCUSD
by TradingShot
1
XMR/USDT — Post-Parabolic Structure: Correction OnlyAfter ~900 days of accumulation in the $100–180 range, Monero rallied to $800 on the privacy-coin narrative. RSI may not look extremely overbought at first glance, but for this asset, the current zone has historically marked reversal territory. Can it go higher? — Yes. Is it worth buying after such a move? — No. Shorting vertical moves like this is a bad idea. The only reasonable approach here is to trade a corrective bounce. One option is to scale in using a grid starting from the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which aligns with the previous ATH at $516. The strategy is straightforward: sell the entire position on a bounce to the next level and step aside. 📌 Important note: historically, a breakdown below the accelerated dynamic trendline (blue line) has always signaled the end of the rally — especially after a retest from below. For medium- or long-term positions, I wouldn’t consider XMR until price returns back into the prior accumulation range.
by MLDpwnz
XMRUSD Bear Cycle starting. $215 possible Target.Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target: This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles. With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:XMRUSDShort
by TradingShot
1
XMRUSD: Multi-Year Monthly Breakout Signals New Macro CycleMonero (XMR) is breaking out on the monthly timeframe after a 105-month (~3,200 days) compression phase, forming a long-term ascending triangle. Price has respected a rising support trendline since the 2016–2017 cycle while repeatedly testing a flat macro resistance zone, which has now been decisively broken with strong bullish momentum. The current monthly candle shows expansion in range and volume, signaling a potential regime shift rather than a short-term move. Key observations: - Multi-year higher lows against horizontal resistance - Clean monthly close above resistance - Long consolidation typically precedes impulsive moves - Structure suggests price discovery phase may be beginning If the breakout holds, XMR could be entering a new long-term bullish cycle, with upside targets extending significantly higher over the coming years. Cheers Hexa
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by HexaTrades
3
Monero XMR price analysisIs CRYPTOCAP:XMR preparing to break its ATH? Looking at the #XMRUSDT chart, it feels like #Monero is approaching a critical moment. After years of consolidation, a confirmed hold above $520 could mark the start of a real harvest season 🌾 🔓 This level may become the key trigger that shifts CRYPTOCAP:XMR into a new market phase. 🎯 So what’s the real target for #Monero? ▪️ $1250? ▪️ Or even much higher — $4300? 💰 Current market cap is around $7.9B. Do you believe CRYPTOCAP:XMR is capable of growing to: ➡️ $23B ➡️ or even $80B? 🤔 Share your thoughts — is #Monero ready to surprise the market again? ______________ ◆ Follow us ❤️ for daily crypto insights & updates! 🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves 🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
CRYPTO:XMRUSD
by P_S_trade
6
XMRUSDT - Another push up… or time for a healthy reality check?Alright, XMR is absolutely trending like a maniac right now. Strong momentum, clean structure, zero chill. But let’s be honest — nothing goes up forever. Not even Monero. What we’re looking for here: • A retracement within the uptrend, not a trend reversal • A chance to catch a better entry near the bottom • Basically: buy fear, not euphoria This is one of those trades where: • If it triggers, it might take time • Levels can shift • And patience is part of the strategy (unfortunately 😅) Why this makes sense: • Similar setup to PIPPIN • Strong trend intact • Waiting for a pullback instead of chasing green candles like a tourist Also — let’s talk black swan energy 🦢: • If we get a sudden market panic • Expect nasty wicks • And yes, that’s actually part of the plan We’re not predicting chaos — we’re just prepared for it. So the idea is simple: 👉 Let XMR cool off 👉 Let panic do its thing 👉 Step in on the retracement 👉 Ride the trend continuation (if the market allows it) This is a slow-cooker trade, not microwave money. If it sets up, great. If not — no FOMO, no drama. Let’s see how it plays out 👀📊
Long
by minno91
XMR keeps failing at 450 resistance, is a major breakdown comingYello Paradisers— how many times can XMRUSDT hit the same wall before it collapses for good? The rejection from the 448 to 450 zone is starting to look like more than just noise. 💎XMRUSDT respected an ascending channel for a while but that structure has now clearly broken. The recent breakdown along with an internal CHoCH signals a shift in short-term momentum. The impulsive rejection has cooled off the buyers and the current consolidation just below the broken channel shows that sellers are gaining control while buyers struggle to hold ground. 💎After the breakdown, price made a corrective attempt but was quickly rejected again around the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area. This zone has now become a supply region and continues to suppress any bullish attempts. As long as price stays under that structure with no strong bullish displacement the bias remains bearish with a likely push toward lower liquidity zones and key support levels. 💎This view changes only if price closes a strong candle above the 450 resistance. That would reclaim the previous range high, cancel the bearish structure shift and signal renewed bullish strength with potential to target higher liquidity above the current range. 🎖Right now is not the time for emotional moves. Stay calm and stay focused. We are only interested in the cleanest and most high probability setups. That is how you win in this game long-term. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
XMRUSD - Privacy Rally Explodes +143% YTD Executive Summary KRAKEN:XMRUSD is trading at approximately $469.71 after an extraordinary year that has seen the privacy coin surge +143% YTD and +155% over the past 12 months. Monero recently hit a 52-week high of $497.75 and is now consolidating just below the critical $500 psychological resistance. The privacy narrative is on fire - Cardano's Midnight protocol launch, rising surveillance concerns, and the EU's 2027 privacy coin ban have created a perfect storm of demand. However, with RSI at 84 (overbought) and price near yearly highs, the question is: breakout to $1,000+ or pullback to consolidate gains? BIAS: BULLISH - But Overbought Caution Required The trend is undeniably bullish. The fundamentals support continued upside. But technicals warn of potential short-term pullback before the next leg higher. Current Market Context - December 22, 2025 Monero's performance has been nothing short of spectacular: Current Price: $469.71 (-0.25% on the day) Day's Range: $453.05 - $483.69 52-Week Range: $183.02 - $497.75 52-Week High: $497.75 (hit last week) Market Cap: $8.67 billion 24h Trading Volume: $171.27 million Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN: 1 Week: +14.90% 1 Month: +40.05% 3 Months: +62.54% 6 Months: +49.34% YTD: +143.09% 1 Year: +155.28% This is the BEST performing major cryptocurrency of 2025. Monero has massively outperformed Bitcoin, Ethereum, and virtually every other top 20 coin. THE PRIVACY NARRATIVE - Why XMR Is Exploding 1. EU Privacy Coin Ban (2027) - Bullish Paradox The European Union confirmed plans to prohibit exchanges from listing privacy coins like Monero starting in 2027, citing anti-money laundering concerns. This follows increased scrutiny after high-profile hacks and ransomware attacks. The Paradox: Short-term BULLISH: Users accumulating XMR pre-ban Creates urgency to acquire before restrictions Validates Monero's core value proposition - if governments want to ban it, it must work Long-term risk: Liquidity could dry up if major exchanges delist Monero's fungibility remains key defense against regulatory sidelining 2. Midnight Protocol Sparks Privacy Rally (Dec 20, 2025) Cardano's Midnight protocol launched NIGHT, a privacy token using zero-knowledge proofs. While not directly tied to Monero, the project reignited interest in privacy technology across the entire sector. XMR rose 18% weekly alongside Zcash Privacy tech is back in focus Rising concerns over digital surveillance driving demand Monero benefits from sector momentum Competition from newer privacy solutions exists, but XMR remains the gold standard 3. Technical Breakout Gains Traction (Dec 22, 2025) XMR surged past its 50-day EMA ($449) Shielded transaction volume hitting ALL-TIME HIGHS Analysts note bullish Wyckoff accumulation patterns Rising open interest (+10% weekly) suggests leveraged bets on continued privacy demand Added to CoinDesk 80 Index - reflecting growing market presence 4. Institutional Interest Growing XMR added to CoinDesk 80 Index Increased futures open interest Growing market presence despite regulatory headwinds Privacy as a feature becoming more valued, not less Development Updates - Bullish Fundamentals Monero developers have been extremely active in late 2025: Security Patches (November 2025): Ledger hardware wallet vulnerability patched (view-key export bug) CLI v0.18.4.4 update addressed critical edge case Strengthens trust in hardware wallet integrations Spy Node Defense - "Fluorine Fermi" Upgrade (October 2025): IP subnet filtering introduced to counter surveillance Disrupts tactics used by firms like Chainalysis Complements existing Dandelion++ protections Directly reinforces untraceable transactions RPC Fuzzing Milestone (November 2025): Achieved 100% fuzzing coverage for RPC endpoints Funded by MagicGrants Reduces attack vectors for hackers Hardens nodes against exploits FCMP++ Scaling Prep (November 2025): Full-Chain Membership Proofs alpha testing finalized Beta stressnet expected Q1 2026 Could enable lighter nodes and better scalability Aims to solidify Monero as most private Layer 1 2026 Roadmap - Major Upgrades Coming FCMP++ Beta Stressnet (Q1 2026) - Scaling decisions finalized Bulletproofs++ (2026) - 30% smaller transactions, 40% faster verification Seraphis & Jamtis (2026) - Enhanced anonymity protocols GetMonero.org Redesign (2026) - Improved user experience Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a textbook bullish structure: Ascending Channel Pattern: Clear ascending channel established over past weeks Higher highs and higher lows consistently forming Channel support: Rising trendline from lows Channel resistance: Parallel line at highs Price currently in upper half of channel Recent Price Action: Price hit resistance zone near $490-$500 Pulled back and now consolidating Currently in a smaller consolidation range ($455-$490) Fibonacci retracement levels visible (0.5 and 0.6 levels) Testing mid-channel support Key Observations: 52-week high of $497.75 represents immediate resistance $500 psychological level is THE level to watch Support zone at $407-$410 area (channel bottom) Strong uptrend intact - no signs of reversal yet Consolidation after 52-week high is healthy, not bearish Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $483-$490 - Immediate resistance (recent highs) $497.75 - 52-week high $500 - CRITICAL psychological resistance $550 - Next major resistance if $500 breaks $600 - Secondary target $1,000 - Major psychological target (community expectation) Support Levels: $453-$460 - Immediate support (day's low area) $449 - 50-day EMA (key moving average) $430-$440 - Secondary support $407-$410 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE (channel bottom) $380-$390 - Deep support $350 - Extended support if correction deepens Moving Average Analysis Price trading well above 50-day EMA ($449) All major moving averages sloping upward Golden cross patterns on multiple timeframes MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks Trend structure extremely bullish RSI Analysis - OVERBOUGHT WARNING RSI currently at 84 - OVERBOUGHT territory This is the primary caution signal Overbought RSI doesn't mean immediate reversal In strong trends, RSI can stay overbought for extended periods However, pullbacks from overbought levels are common Watch for RSI divergence as potential warning sign Volume Analysis 24h volume: $171.27 million Volume supporting the uptrend Shielded transaction volume at ALL-TIME HIGHS Open interest rising (+10% weekly) Healthy volume profile for continuation Community Sentiment - Extremely Bullish Bull Case - $1,000+ Targets @olgerd_butko: "Monero screams insta teleportation above 1k. Privacy by default. No hype. Just real facts." @soontzu: "Monero has only 0.2% of total crypto value. With XMR supply matching BTC's, $90k BTC implies massive XMR upside." - This comparison suggests theoretical $1,500+ XMR price if adoption parity occurs. Bear Case - Regulatory Concerns @Nicat_eth: "Monero edged lower as exchange delistings and privacy scrutiny intensify." Bearish pressure stems from shrinking liquidity on some exchanges, though price action has defied this concern. Regulatory Landscape - Double-Edged Sword Delistings and Restrictions: Kraken halted XMR for UK users (late 2024) Kraken halted XMR for EEA users (November 2025) Exodus wallet ended XMR support (August 2025) EU ban coming in 2027 Why This Is Actually Bullish (Short-Term): Validates Monero's privacy effectiveness Creates urgency to accumulate before restrictions Proves the technology works as intended Decentralized exchanges and P2P trading remain available Monero's fungibility makes it resistant to blacklisting SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $500 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $500 with volume RSI holds above 70 without major divergence Continued privacy narrative momentum Bitcoin remains stable or bullish Ascending channel breakout to upside Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $550 - First resistance above $500 Target 2: $600 - Secondary target Target 3: $750 - Extended target Moon Target: $1,000+ (community expectation) Bullish Catalysts: FCMP++ beta stressnet success (Q1 2026) Continued privacy rally momentum EU ban fears driving accumulation Shielded transactions continuing to hit ATHs Altcoin season rotation Bulletproofs++ and Seraphis upgrades BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Support Trigger Conditions: Rejection at $500 with bearish candle RSI divergence forms (lower highs on RSI, higher highs on price) Break below ascending channel support Broader crypto market weakness Major exchange delisting announcement Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $449 - 50-day EMA retest Target 2: $430-$440 - Secondary support Target 3: $407-$410 - Channel bottom / major support Extended: $350-$380 if channel breaks Bearish Risks: RSI at 84 - overbought Near 52-week high - profit-taking likely Regulatory headlines could spook market Thin liquidity on some exchanges Broader crypto correction risk NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between $450-$490 RSI cools off from overbought levels Builds base for next leg higher Healthy consolidation after massive rally Watch for breakout direction MY ASSESSMENT - BULLISH WITH CAUTION The weight of evidence strongly favors bulls: +143% YTD performance speaks for itself Privacy narrative is the strongest it's been in years Development activity is robust Shielded transactions at ATH Community sentiment extremely bullish Ascending channel intact All timeframes showing bullish structure However, caution is warranted: RSI at 84 is overbought Near 52-week high - natural resistance $500 is major psychological barrier Some profit-taking expected Regulatory headlines could cause volatility My Stance: BULLISH - Buy Dips Strategy I believe XMR will eventually break $500 and continue higher. The fundamentals and narrative support it. However, I would not chase at current levels with RSI at 84. Instead: Wait for pullback to $449-$460 area for better entry Or wait for confirmed breakout above $500 with volume Avoid buying in the middle of the range Trade Framework Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $500 Entry Conditions: Daily candle closes above $500 Volume exceeds recent average RSI holds above 65 (not diverging) Trade Parameters: Entry: $505-$515 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $475 below recent support Target 1: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $600 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 3: $750 (Extended) Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support Entry Conditions: Price pulls back to $449-$460 zone RSI cools to 50-60 range Bullish rejection candle at support Ascending channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $450-$460 on support test Stop Loss: $420 below channel support Target 1: $490-$500 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $550 (Risk-Reward ~1:3) Target 3: $600 (Extended) Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy Entry Conditions: Price tests $407-$410 major support zone Strong bounce with volume RSI oversold or near oversold Trade Parameters: Entry: $410-$420 at channel bottom Stop Loss: $385 below support zone Target 1: $460-$470 (Risk-Reward ~1:2) Target 2: $500 (Risk-Reward ~1:3.5) Target 3: $550+ (Extended) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 2-3% max risk per trade Respect overbought RSI - don't chase Use hard stops - privacy coins can be volatile Scale into positions rather than all-in entries Take partial profits at each target (33% each) Move stop to breakeven after first target Monitor regulatory news closely Be aware of lower liquidity on some exchanges Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $407 (channel bottom) Ascending channel breaks down RSI divergence confirms with lower price Major exchange delisting causes panic Bitcoin crashes below $85,000 Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $500 with volume RSI makes new highs with price Shielded transactions continue hitting ATHs Privacy narrative accelerates further Conclusion KRAKEN:XMRUSD is the standout performer of 2025 with +143% YTD gains. The privacy narrative is firing on all cylinders - EU ban fears, Midnight protocol launch, surveillance concerns, and development upgrades have created a perfect storm for Monero. The Numbers: YTD Performance: +143.09% 1-Year Performance: +155.28% 52-Week High: $497.75 Current Price: $469.71 RSI: 84 (Overbought) Market Cap: $8.67 billion Key Levels: $500 - CRITICAL resistance / breakout level $497.75 - 52-week high $449 - 50-day EMA support $407-$410 - Major support zone (channel bottom) The Setup: Monero is consolidating just below its 52-week high after an incredible rally. The trend is bullish, fundamentals are strong, and the privacy narrative is the best it's been in years. However, RSI at 84 warns of potential short-term pullback. Strategy: Don't chase at current levels Buy dips to $449-$460 support Or buy confirmed breakout above $500 Targets: $550, $600, $750+ Stop below $420 or channel support The path of least resistance is higher. Privacy is becoming more valuable, not less. Monero's technology is proven, development is active, and the community is committed. The EU ban paradoxically validates everything Monero stands for. $1,000 XMR is not a meme - it's a matter of when, not if. This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
XMR Compressing Inside Symmetrical Triangle Near Breakout ZoneXMR is currently trading inside a well-defined symmetrical triangle, formed by a series of lower highs and higher lows after a strong impulse move. This structure reflects balanced pressure between buyers and sellers, signaling compression before a volatility expansion. Price is now approaching the upper boundary of the triangle while holding above the rising support. A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance with acceptance can trigger a continuation move toward the 436 region, followed by the higher resistance near 480. If price fails to break the upper boundary and loses the rising support, the triangle will resolve to the downside. In that scenario, the next demand areas are located near 360 and 319, where price previously reacted strongly. This setup is driven by triangle compression, trendline interaction, and liquidity buildup. The breakout direction will define the next major move, making confirmation essential before bias selection.
by CryptoCoinsCoach
XMR - Institutional Analysis: Channel Support Buy Zone | Dec 7XMRUSD - The Privacy Resistance: How Regulatory War Created The Perfect Parallel Channel Setup by officialjackofalltrades 🟡 CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH December 7, 2025 Institutional Technical Analysis | Whale Signals Integrated 📈 Executive Summary - The Setup Current Price: $372.78 | December 7, 2025 Monero is trading at a critical inflection point inside a well-defined parallel channel that has dictated price action for the past 90 days. After a spectacular +23% rally to $420 in the first week of December, XMR has pulled back to test lower channel support at $370-380 exactly where technical analysis suggests the next major move will be decided. The Technical Setup: Pattern: Ascending parallel channel (bullish structure) Current Position: Lower channel support ($370-380) Resistance: Upper channel boundary ($420-450) Key Decision Level: $360 (below = channel break, above = bounce continuation) The Fundamental Backdrop: While retail focuses on regulatory FUD from 2024 delistings (Binance, Kraken, OKX), they're missing three critical developments: XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash on November 29, 2025 Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced network surveillance defenses on October 10 Early December saw 23% price surge despite broader crypto market liquidations The Trade: Long from $360-380, target $420-480, stop $355 below .. Monero's price on December 7, 2025, is fluctuating approximately between $390 and $400, with some reports indicating a notable 23% increase in the first week, pushing its average trading price to $406 and briefly reaching a short-run high of $420 . What This Means: The $420 short-run high demonstrates XMR's technical strength even as it tests the upper boundary of the channel. The current pullback to $372 is textbook technical behavior—price respecting the parallel structure. Current Technical Position: Support Levels (Where buyers defend): $370-$380: Lower parallel channel + 50-day MA convergence (CURRENT LEVEL) $360-$365: Channel absolute floor + psychological support $320-$340: Major support cluster from Aug-Nov accumulation $280-$300: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability) Resistance Levels (Where sellers appear) $400-$420: Recent high + upper channel boundary $435-$450: Channel breakout zone + 2025 YTD high $480-$500: Psychological resistance + near ATH $517.62: All-time high (May 2021) Not overbought (room to run higher) Not oversold (not in panic selling zone) Neutral = equilibrium before next directional move MACD (Momentum): Histogram: Positive but declining (losing steam short-term) Signal line: Approaching bullish cross Interpretation: Consolidation before next leg up Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M - this is concerning. Volume has been declining since the December 3 peak, indicating: Thin liquidity from exchange delistings Lower participation = higher volatility potential Breakouts need VOLUME confirmation 🔎 Fundamental Analysis - The Regulatory War Creates Opportunity While technical analysis shows the "what" and "when," fundamentals explain the "why." Here's what's REALLY happening with Monero: CATALYST #1: The Exchange Delisting Paradox The Bearish Narrative (What retail sees): Binance delisted XMR February 2024 OKX delisted XMR January 2024 Kraken delisted XMR in EEA October 2024 "Privacy coins are dying!" The Reality (What institutions know): Monero founder Riccardo Spagni said: "Kraken delisting Monero in Europe just goes to prove what we already know: Chainalysis et al. simply can't squeeze enough information out of Monero's privacy to be meaningful, otherwise regulators would want Monero to stay listed as a honeypot". Read that again. The delistings PROVE Monero's privacy works. If regulators could track Monero, they'd WANT it listed to monitor users. The fact they're forcing delistings means they can't break the privacy. Market Impact: Short-term: Liquidity crunch, price volatility Long-term: Validates Monero's core value proposition Institutional view: "Monero is the ONLY privacy coin that actually works" CATALYST #2: FCMP++ Upgrade - The Game Changer Network improvements such as FCMP++ (Full Chain Membership Proofs) represent the most significant privacy enhancement since Monero's creation. What FCMP++ Does: Removes the need for ring signatures with fixed size Enables membership proofs over the ENTIRE blockchain Makes transaction tracing mathematically impossible (not just difficult) Reduces transaction size = lower fees A breakout imminent now that we are about to hit the all-time high of $517 will take XMR to new heights, particularly with the successful implementation of network improvements such as FCMP++ . Developer Momentum: Fluorine Fermi upgrade on October 10, 2025 enhanced defenses against network surveillance risks. Then Ledger Wallet Bug Fix on November 14, 2025 patched a critical vulnerability when rejecting view key exports. Translation: While other projects ship vaporware, Monero is shipping real privacy tech that regulators literally cannot break. CATALYST #3: Privacy Demand at All-Time High As of December 7, 2025, Monero (XMR) continues to be a focal point in the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to its unwavering commitment to privacy in an increasingly regulated digital landscape. The irony? Regulatory crackdowns INCREASE demand for privacy. Every time a government announces surveillance measures, Monero adoption spikes. Every time an exchange delists XMR, peer-to-peer volume increases. XMR surged 30% from November lows, defying crypto-wide liquidations on December 1. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins crashed with $637M in liquidations, Monero rallied. Why? Because in times of uncertainty, people want privacy. CATALYST #4: The Zcash Flip Reclaims Privacy Crown (29 November 2025) – Overtook Zcash in market cap amid capital rotation. This is MASSIVE. Zcash (ZEC) was Monero's main competitor for years. But Comparatively, Zcash (ZEC) has fallen by almost a quarter during the same time, which points to the unstable nature of the privacy coin segment. Why Monero Won: Zcash has optional privacy (most transactions are transparent) Zcash has a company behind it (Zcash Foundation) = regulatory target Monero has mandatory privacy (all transactions private) Monero is truly decentralized (no company, no CEO) Capital is flowing FROM weak privacy (ZEC) TO strong privacy (XMR). This trend is accelerating. ⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case I'm bullish on the technical setup, but let's address the others in the room: RISK #1: Mining Centralization (Qubic Attack) Qubic grabbed 20% of all blocks in 24h during mining marathon, while DDoS attacks hit network. Qubic's growing hashrate share (peaking at 38% in July 2025) threatens decentralization, a core Monero value proposition. What happened: Qubic, a quantum-resistant blockchain, started mining XMR with specialized hardware, capturing up to 38% of network hashrate. Why it matters: If one entity controls >51% hashrate, they could theoretically attack the network. Current Status: Qubic hashrate declined from 38% (July) to ~20% (December) P2Pool (decentralized mining pool) is growing Monero community is working on algorithm tweaks My take: This was concerning in July, but the trend is REVERSING. Hashrate is becoming more distributed again. RISK #2: Thin Liquidity = High Volatility 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M is low compared to XMR's $7.21B market cap. Volume-to-Market Cap Ratio: 1.6% (very low) Bitcoin: ~5-8% Ethereum: ~4-6% Monero: ~1.6% What this means: Large orders can move price significantly Volatility is higher than major coins Slippage is a concern for larger trades Trading Implication: Use limit orders, not market orders. Scale in/out slowly. RISK #3: Regulatory Uncertainty Governments and financial regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies that allow users to hide their transaction details, fearing that they could be used for illicit activities like money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing. Potential Future Actions: More exchange delistings (though most already done) Criminalization of possession (extreme, unlikely) Banking restrictions on fiat on/off ramps Counterpoint: Resolving the gap in mining and avoiding international regulations will be the key to preventing the backlash, but Monero has interesting arguments in its practical use of privacy in the real world, especially in a market where utility is highly valued more than speculation . 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Institutional-Grade Execution 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY XMRUSD Entry Zone: $360-$380 (SCALE IN - We're at the PERFECT zone RIGHT NOW) Position Sizing (Conservative Institutional Approach): Allocate 4-6% of portfolio (this is a MEDIUM conviction trade due to liquidity risk) Scale in strategy: 30% at $375-380 (CURRENT - enter NOW if not in) $365-370 (if we get one more dip to channel support) $360-365 (if we hit absolute channel floor) Stop Loss: $355 Below $355 = parallel channel broken on daily close Below this = technical structure invalidated Max loss: 6-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets (Institutional Scale-Out Strategy): TP1: $420-$435 Upper parallel channel resistance retest December 2-3 peak at $420 retest Action: move stop to $370 (breakeven) TP2: $450-$480 (Probability: 50%) Channel breakout + FCMP++ upgrade hype builds Monero forecast between $382.54 and $456.36 next year Action: move stop to $420 (lock gains) All-time high $517.62 retest Full bull market confirmation Provided that buyers continue their growth, XMR is one of the best cryptos to consider as the new bull run might start with the daily close higher than $327 Entry Confirmation Checklist (Use This Before Entering): ✅ Price holding above $360 (channel support intact) ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ XMR on daily candle) ✅ RSI crosses above 55 (momentum shift confirmed) ✅ MACD bullish cross on H4 timeframe ✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support) ✅ No surprise negative regulatory news (check daily) WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE DEPLOYING FULL POSITION Weekly Monitoring Requirements: CRITICAL - Check EVERY WEEK: Hashrate distribution: If Qubic >40% again, reduce position 50% Exchange news: Any re-listings = bullish, add to position Developer activity: Check Monero GitHub for FCMP++ progress Regulatory news: New delistings = short-term bearish, long-term bullish Bitcoin correlation: If BTC <$90K, reduce XMR position 30-50% Volume trends: If 24h volume <$80M consistently, reduce position 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT IMMEDIATELY): ❌ Daily close below $355 = EXIT ALL (channel broken) ❌ Qubic hashrate >51% sustained = EXIT ALL (security risk) ❌ Major security vulnerability discovered = EXIT ALL ❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = EXIT 50%, trail rest tight ❌ Volume dries up below $50M/24h = EXIT 50% (liquidity crisis) 📊 Scenario Analysis - What Happens Next Base Case: Channel Bounce to $420-450 What happens: XMR holds $370 support ✓ Bounces along lower channel to retest $420 resistance Volume increases modestly FCMP++ development continues Breaks $435, targets $450-480 Timeline: 2-4 weeks Expected Return: +17-29% Catalysts: Technical bounce, no new negative news Bull Case (2 Channel Breakout to $500+ What happens: XMR breaks above $450 with VOLUME XMR forecasted to reach $456.36 by January 1, 2026 FCMP++ release creates buzz Privacy narrative strengthens Targets ATH $517 Timeline: 4-8 weeks Expected Return: +34-40% Catalysts: FCMP++ launch, major adoption news, BTC >$110K Bear Case (15% Probability): Channel Break to $320-340 What happens: XMR breaks below $360 on volume Tests major support at $320-340 Regulatory FUD intensifies Bitcoin corrects below $95K Thin liquidity amplifies drop Timeline: 1-2 weeks Expected Return: -8 to -14% Catalysts: Surprise delisting, BTC crash, Qubic attack Probability-Weighted Expected Return: 🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This Setup Works Let me synthesize everything into a clear thesis: The Technical Case: ✅ Parallel channel: 8 successful tests, currently at lower support ✅ +23% surge in first week of December to $420 ✅ Overtook Zcash in market cap November 29 ✅ Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced security October 10 ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high in regulated landscape ✅ Delistings prove Monero's privacy actually works The Risk Case: ⚠️ Thin liquidity (<$115M daily volume) ⚠️ Qubic mining centralization (peaked 38% hashrate) ⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty ongoing ⚠️ Exchange access limited (most CEXs delisted) The Trade: Entry: $360-380 (we're at $372 NOW) Stop: $355 (-5% max loss) Target : $380-400 IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Daily close below $360 (channel break confirmed) Then short from $355-360 with tight stop at $380 Target $320-340 support retest Cover at $320, reassess IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL: Split the Difference: Enter only at $365-370 (better risk/reward) Take profits aggressively This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" approach 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for certain on December 7, 2025: ✅_ContinueYour parallel channel analysis is PERFECT - XMR is respecting the structure exactly ✅ +23% rally to $420 in December's first week proves momentum ✅ XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash - capital rotation happening ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high - fundamental bid exists ✅ Delistings prove Monero's tech works - validates thesis ✅ We're at lower channel support ($370) - mathematically optimal entry Will Bitcoin hold $100K or crash? Will Qubic attack Monero's hashrate again? Will more exchanges delist (though most already have)? Drop a 🟠 if you're entering XMR at $360-380 channel support. Drop a 📊 if this parallel channel analysis helped you. Drop a 🔒 if you believe in privacy's future. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $450+ in Q1 2026.
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
XMR Sell/Short Signal (4H)XMR has turned bearish after the change of character (CH) and, following the break of the short-term trendline, has now pulled back to a resistance zone while also sweeping a liquidity pool above the pivots. With proper risk management and adherence to the stop-loss, this setup can be entered. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will negate this analysis. Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting Comment if you have any questions thank you
by iMoneyTeam