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XMR - Institutional Analysis: Channel Support Buy Zone | Dec 7XMRUSD - The Privacy Resistance: How Regulatory War Created The Perfect Parallel Channel Setup by officialjackofalltrades 🟡 CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH December 7, 2025 Institutional Technical Analysis | Whale Signals Integrated 📈 Executive Summary - The Setup Current Price: $372.78 | December 7, 2025 Monero is trading at a critical inflection point inside a well-defined parallel channel that has dictated price action for the past 90 days. After a spectacular +23% rally to $420 in the first week of December, XMR has pulled back to test lower channel support at $370-380 exactly where technical analysis suggests the next major move will be decided. The Technical Setup: Pattern: Ascending parallel channel (bullish structure) Current Position: Lower channel support ($370-380) Resistance: Upper channel boundary ($420-450) Key Decision Level: $360 (below = channel break, above = bounce continuation) The Fundamental Backdrop: While retail focuses on regulatory FUD from 2024 delistings (Binance, Kraken, OKX), they're missing three critical developments: XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash on November 29, 2025 Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced network surveillance defenses on October 10 Early December saw 23% price surge despite broader crypto market liquidations The Trade: Long from $360-380, target $420-480, stop $355 below .. Monero's price on December 7, 2025, is fluctuating approximately between $390 and $400, with some reports indicating a notable 23% increase in the first week, pushing its average trading price to $406 and briefly reaching a short-run high of $420 . What This Means: The $420 short-run high demonstrates XMR's technical strength even as it tests the upper boundary of the channel. The current pullback to $372 is textbook technical behavior—price respecting the parallel structure. Current Technical Position: Support Levels (Where buyers defend): $370-$380: Lower parallel channel + 50-day MA convergence (CURRENT LEVEL) $360-$365: Channel absolute floor + psychological support $320-$340: Major support cluster from Aug-Nov accumulation $280-$300: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability) Resistance Levels (Where sellers appear) $400-$420: Recent high + upper channel boundary $435-$450: Channel breakout zone + 2025 YTD high $480-$500: Psychological resistance + near ATH $517.62: All-time high (May 2021) Not overbought (room to run higher) Not oversold (not in panic selling zone) Neutral = equilibrium before next directional move MACD (Momentum): Histogram: Positive but declining (losing steam short-term) Signal line: Approaching bullish cross Interpretation: Consolidation before next leg up Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M - this is concerning. Volume has been declining since the December 3 peak, indicating: Thin liquidity from exchange delistings Lower participation = higher volatility potential Breakouts need VOLUME confirmation 🔎 Fundamental Analysis - The Regulatory War Creates Opportunity While technical analysis shows the "what" and "when," fundamentals explain the "why." Here's what's REALLY happening with Monero: CATALYST #1: The Exchange Delisting Paradox The Bearish Narrative (What retail sees): Binance delisted XMR February 2024 OKX delisted XMR January 2024 Kraken delisted XMR in EEA October 2024 "Privacy coins are dying!" The Reality (What institutions know): Monero founder Riccardo Spagni said: "Kraken delisting Monero in Europe just goes to prove what we already know: Chainalysis et al. simply can't squeeze enough information out of Monero's privacy to be meaningful, otherwise regulators would want Monero to stay listed as a honeypot". Read that again. The delistings PROVE Monero's privacy works. If regulators could track Monero, they'd WANT it listed to monitor users. The fact they're forcing delistings means they can't break the privacy. Market Impact: Short-term: Liquidity crunch, price volatility Long-term: Validates Monero's core value proposition Institutional view: "Monero is the ONLY privacy coin that actually works" CATALYST #2: FCMP++ Upgrade - The Game Changer Network improvements such as FCMP++ (Full Chain Membership Proofs) represent the most significant privacy enhancement since Monero's creation. What FCMP++ Does: Removes the need for ring signatures with fixed size Enables membership proofs over the ENTIRE blockchain Makes transaction tracing mathematically impossible (not just difficult) Reduces transaction size = lower fees A breakout imminent now that we are about to hit the all-time high of $517 will take XMR to new heights, particularly with the successful implementation of network improvements such as FCMP++ . Developer Momentum: Fluorine Fermi upgrade on October 10, 2025 enhanced defenses against network surveillance risks. Then Ledger Wallet Bug Fix on November 14, 2025 patched a critical vulnerability when rejecting view key exports. Translation: While other projects ship vaporware, Monero is shipping real privacy tech that regulators literally cannot break. CATALYST #3: Privacy Demand at All-Time High As of December 7, 2025, Monero (XMR) continues to be a focal point in the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to its unwavering commitment to privacy in an increasingly regulated digital landscape. The irony? Regulatory crackdowns INCREASE demand for privacy. Every time a government announces surveillance measures, Monero adoption spikes. Every time an exchange delists XMR, peer-to-peer volume increases. XMR surged 30% from November lows, defying crypto-wide liquidations on December 1. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins crashed with $637M in liquidations, Monero rallied. Why? Because in times of uncertainty, people want privacy. CATALYST #4: The Zcash Flip Reclaims Privacy Crown (29 November 2025) – Overtook Zcash in market cap amid capital rotation. This is MASSIVE. Zcash (ZEC) was Monero's main competitor for years. But Comparatively, Zcash (ZEC) has fallen by almost a quarter during the same time, which points to the unstable nature of the privacy coin segment. Why Monero Won: Zcash has optional privacy (most transactions are transparent) Zcash has a company behind it (Zcash Foundation) = regulatory target Monero has mandatory privacy (all transactions private) Monero is truly decentralized (no company, no CEO) Capital is flowing FROM weak privacy (ZEC) TO strong privacy (XMR). This trend is accelerating. ⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case I'm bullish on the technical setup, but let's address the others in the room: RISK #1: Mining Centralization (Qubic Attack) Qubic grabbed 20% of all blocks in 24h during mining marathon, while DDoS attacks hit network. Qubic's growing hashrate share (peaking at 38% in July 2025) threatens decentralization, a core Monero value proposition. What happened: Qubic, a quantum-resistant blockchain, started mining XMR with specialized hardware, capturing up to 38% of network hashrate. Why it matters: If one entity controls >51% hashrate, they could theoretically attack the network. Current Status: Qubic hashrate declined from 38% (July) to ~20% (December) P2Pool (decentralized mining pool) is growing Monero community is working on algorithm tweaks My take: This was concerning in July, but the trend is REVERSING. Hashrate is becoming more distributed again. RISK #2: Thin Liquidity = High Volatility 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M is low compared to XMR's $7.21B market cap. Volume-to-Market Cap Ratio: 1.6% (very low) Bitcoin: ~5-8% Ethereum: ~4-6% Monero: ~1.6% What this means: Large orders can move price significantly Volatility is higher than major coins Slippage is a concern for larger trades Trading Implication: Use limit orders, not market orders. Scale in/out slowly. RISK #3: Regulatory Uncertainty Governments and financial regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies that allow users to hide their transaction details, fearing that they could be used for illicit activities like money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing. Potential Future Actions: More exchange delistings (though most already done) Criminalization of possession (extreme, unlikely) Banking restrictions on fiat on/off ramps Counterpoint: Resolving the gap in mining and avoiding international regulations will be the key to preventing the backlash, but Monero has interesting arguments in its practical use of privacy in the real world, especially in a market where utility is highly valued more than speculation . 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Institutional-Grade Execution 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY XMRUSD Entry Zone: $360-$380 (SCALE IN - We're at the PERFECT zone RIGHT NOW) Position Sizing (Conservative Institutional Approach): Allocate 4-6% of portfolio (this is a MEDIUM conviction trade due to liquidity risk) Scale in strategy: 30% at $375-380 (CURRENT - enter NOW if not in) $365-370 (if we get one more dip to channel support) $360-365 (if we hit absolute channel floor) Stop Loss: $355 Below $355 = parallel channel broken on daily close Below this = technical structure invalidated Max loss: 6-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets (Institutional Scale-Out Strategy): TP1: $420-$435 Upper parallel channel resistance retest December 2-3 peak at $420 retest Action: move stop to $370 (breakeven) TP2: $450-$480 (Probability: 50%) Channel breakout + FCMP++ upgrade hype builds Monero forecast between $382.54 and $456.36 next year Action: move stop to $420 (lock gains) All-time high $517.62 retest Full bull market confirmation Provided that buyers continue their growth, XMR is one of the best cryptos to consider as the new bull run might start with the daily close higher than $327 Entry Confirmation Checklist (Use This Before Entering): ✅ Price holding above $360 (channel support intact) ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ XMR on daily candle) ✅ RSI crosses above 55 (momentum shift confirmed) ✅ MACD bullish cross on H4 timeframe ✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support) ✅ No surprise negative regulatory news (check daily) WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE DEPLOYING FULL POSITION Weekly Monitoring Requirements: CRITICAL - Check EVERY WEEK: Hashrate distribution: If Qubic >40% again, reduce position 50% Exchange news: Any re-listings = bullish, add to position Developer activity: Check Monero GitHub for FCMP++ progress Regulatory news: New delistings = short-term bearish, long-term bullish Bitcoin correlation: If BTC <$90K, reduce XMR position 30-50% Volume trends: If 24h volume <$80M consistently, reduce position 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT IMMEDIATELY): ❌ Daily close below $355 = EXIT ALL (channel broken) ❌ Qubic hashrate >51% sustained = EXIT ALL (security risk) ❌ Major security vulnerability discovered = EXIT ALL ❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = EXIT 50%, trail rest tight ❌ Volume dries up below $50M/24h = EXIT 50% (liquidity crisis) 📊 Scenario Analysis - What Happens Next Base Case: Channel Bounce to $420-450 What happens: XMR holds $370 support ✓ Bounces along lower channel to retest $420 resistance Volume increases modestly FCMP++ development continues Breaks $435, targets $450-480 Timeline: 2-4 weeks Expected Return: +17-29% Catalysts: Technical bounce, no new negative news Bull Case (2 Channel Breakout to $500+ What happens: XMR breaks above $450 with VOLUME XMR forecasted to reach $456.36 by January 1, 2026 FCMP++ release creates buzz Privacy narrative strengthens Targets ATH $517 Timeline: 4-8 weeks Expected Return: +34-40% Catalysts: FCMP++ launch, major adoption news, BTC >$110K Bear Case (15% Probability): Channel Break to $320-340 What happens: XMR breaks below $360 on volume Tests major support at $320-340 Regulatory FUD intensifies Bitcoin corrects below $95K Thin liquidity amplifies drop Timeline: 1-2 weeks Expected Return: -8 to -14% Catalysts: Surprise delisting, BTC crash, Qubic attack Probability-Weighted Expected Return: 🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This Setup Works Let me synthesize everything into a clear thesis: The Technical Case: ✅ Parallel channel: 8 successful tests, currently at lower support ✅ +23% surge in first week of December to $420 ✅ Overtook Zcash in market cap November 29 ✅ Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced security October 10 ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high in regulated landscape ✅ Delistings prove Monero's privacy actually works The Risk Case: ⚠️ Thin liquidity (<$115M daily volume) ⚠️ Qubic mining centralization (peaked 38% hashrate) ⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty ongoing ⚠️ Exchange access limited (most CEXs delisted) The Trade: Entry: $360-380 (we're at $372 NOW) Stop: $355 (-5% max loss) Target : $380-400 IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Daily close below $360 (channel break confirmed) Then short from $355-360 with tight stop at $380 Target $320-340 support retest Cover at $320, reassess IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL: Split the Difference: Enter only at $365-370 (better risk/reward) Take profits aggressively This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" approach 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for certain on December 7, 2025: ✅_ContinueYour parallel channel analysis is PERFECT - XMR is respecting the structure exactly ✅ +23% rally to $420 in December's first week proves momentum ✅ XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash - capital rotation happening ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high - fundamental bid exists ✅ Delistings prove Monero's tech works - validates thesis ✅ We're at lower channel support ($370) - mathematically optimal entry Will Bitcoin hold $100K or crash? Will Qubic attack Monero's hashrate again? Will more exchanges delist (though most already have)? Drop a 🟠 if you're entering XMR at $360-380 channel support. Drop a 📊 if this parallel channel analysis helped you. Drop a 🔒 if you believe in privacy's future. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $450+ in Q1 2026.
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
Monero Price Action Report — Breakout Strength and Target ZoneXMR/USDT Bullish Breakout Blueprint! 🚀📈 (Swing & Day Trade Plan) Description: Monero is awakening! 🦋 A dynamic breakout is in play, offering a clear technical setup for both swing and day traders. Here’s your professional blueprint to navigate this opportunity. 📊 Trading Thesis: Bullish Breakout The setup is confirmed by a breakout above the key Weighted Moving Average (WMA) dynamic resistance near 420.00. This signals a potential shift in momentum and opens the door for a bullish move. 🎯 Execution Plan 🟢 Entry Zone: Any price AFTER a confirmed breakout & close above 420.00. Look for a retest of the WMA as support for an optimal risk-reward entry. ⛔ Stop Loss (Risk Management): A logical stop loss can be placed below 390.00, which is under the recent support and WMA structure. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my suggested SL based on my strategy. You MUST adjust your position size and stop loss based on your own risk tolerance and capital. Always wait for breakout confirmation before placing your SL. 🎯 Profit Target (Take Profit): Our primary target is the 460.00 zone. This area represents a strong historical resistance level and could coincide with overbought conditions. Secure your profits proactively! 💡 Professional Note: This is my initial target. You are free to take partial profits earlier or trail your stop. "Make money, then take money" – manage your trade actively! 🔍 Key Levels & Rationale Bullish Trigger: WMA Breakout > 420.00 Invalidation Level: < 390.00 (Bullish structure broken) Target Zone: 460.00 (Major Resistance & Profit-Taking Zone) 🌐 Related Pairs & Market Correlations Diversify your watchlist! The crypto market is highly correlated. Movements in XMR often relate to these assets: CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance): 📉 A decrease in BTC.D often fuels altcoin rallies, which is bullish for XMR. BTC/USDT: 👑 The King leads, alts follow. A strong, stable, or rising Bitcoin is generally positive for the entire crypto market, including Monero. Privacy Coin Sector: CRYPTOCAP:ZEC (Zcash) & NASDAQ:DASH 📊 Key Point: Watch these for sector-wide momentum. A bullish move in XMR is often mirrored in other major privacy coins, confirming a sector trend. Major Alts: ETH/USDT 💙 & XRP/USDT ⚡ Key Point: Strength in large-cap alts like ETH and XRP creates a risk-on environment, which is beneficial for mid-cap coins like Monero. ✅ Final Checklist Before Entering: ✅ Breakout & close above WMA (420) confirmed? ✅ Volume supporting the move? ✅ SL set according to MY risk management? ✅ Related pairs (BTC, ETH) showing strength? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 💬 Are you bullish or bearish on XMR? Like & Follow 👍 for more high-quality, actionable trade ideas! #TradingView #XMR #Monero #Crypto #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #WMA #BTC #Altcoins #DeFi
by The-Thief
1
XMR Sell/Short Signal (4H)XMR has turned bearish after the change of character (CH) and, following the break of the short-term trendline, has now pulled back to a resistance zone while also sweeping a liquidity pool above the pivots. With proper risk management and adherence to the stop-loss, this setup can be entered. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will negate this analysis. Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting Comment if you have any questions thank you
by iMoneyTeam
XMR -- Phase 2, eyeing a retap of ATH area plus more! SEED now!Monero (XMR) is outperforming other cryptocurrencies and traditional markets, with a 74% year-to-date increase, despite being delisted from major exchanges and banned in the EU. Its strong privacy features, such as untraceable transactions and upcoming updates like FCMP++, make it a preferred choice for financial privacy. Monero is widely used in peer-to-peer commerce, including dark web transactions and emerging marketplaces. Its growing adoption highlights its role as a private, decentralized alternative to traditional financial systems. Based on recent metrics, XMR has been showing some decoupling behavior from the crypto space bringing forth a sense of price independence from the market. Recent long term data is hinting of another basing season which hints of another accumulation period -- an impending round of growth season ahead. We are currently on Phase 2 of this higher base shift at current price of 290.0. Phase 1 started from early 2024 on Q1 when it tapped the lows of 99.0 and went parabolic to tap the 400 zone early 2025 (12 months after). As with any overheated parabolic move, the coin was met with strong profit taking -- undergoing an extended corrective season and finally settling at the 200 range. Now, based on recent metrics -- XMR is now ripe for another round of growth series from here on, targeting a retap of previous peak at 420 -- and eventually the ATH zone at 517.60. Ideal seeding period is now. Based on our diagram -- discount darvas meter has been activated. Meaning, current pricing is now at bargain levels and price growth is expected from here on as we more forward. Spotted at 290. Interim target at previous peak 420. Long term - ATH at 517 / then beyond at 800-1k levels. TAYOR. Trade safely always.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by JSAL
1
Monero: The best asymmetric bet in crypto"Your winners are never big enough." I don’t recall who said it first, but I credit legendary trader Peter Brandt for popularizing this maxim — the one that comforts every risk-conscious trader whose conviction proves right but whose position size was too small. A little over two years ago, I realized that Monero embodies the ethos Bitcoin once had: private, decentralized, uncensorable money free from government and corporate control. Bitcoin has since drifted from that ideal. It may function as a store of value today, but it has surrendered most of its role as a medium of exchange on the internet. Monero has quietly taken that mantle. Watching major Bitcoin thefts be traced and seized — because Bitcoin is, in fact, traceable — only reinforced my view: Monero’s value as true private money would keep growing as the market caught on. Since forming that conviction, I’ve seen two events that seemed to threaten Monero’s survival — yet ultimately proved its resilience. The first was Monero’s delisting from Binance, forced by European regulations banning privacy coins. The market panicked; XMR dropped 30% overnight. At first, I feared its code had been compromised. But the truth was simpler — and far more bullish. Monero was being recognized as working exactly as intended: too private for governments to track. The second came this year with an attempted 51% hashrate takeover. Confusion reigned, and even I questioned whether this was an existential threat. Yet I decided that if the world could no longer sustain private money, little else would matter. I held my conviction — and Monero endured. Through all of it, Monero has proven to be the pluckiest cryptocurrency alive — rising now amid one of the most skeptical phases of the current bull cycle. From a price-action standpoint, the weekly close above the prior $420 high (yes, that number) would confirm a breakout. But I don’t think it matters. As a trader, I’ve found Monero almost un-tradable — my usual methods simply don’t apply to XMR/USD. Its chart behaves unlike any other asset. That doesn’t frustrate me anymore. It fascinates me. The best move with Monero isn’t to trade it — it’s to own it. Monero remains the best asymmetric bet in crypto.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by norok
That Monero FUD AbyssI have been doing this cryptocurrency trading and investing thing for a long time. Any wise trader is constantly learning and I that is what I try to do. But like any human subject vulnerable to mass emotion and hysteria sometimes we need a sharp reminder of how to properly digest or ignore what "everyone" is feeling. Because "everyone is the market and "everyone" (including myself) is the market. I have long been a proponent of Monero CRYPTO:XMRUSD because it represents the true ethos of cryptocurrency; truly decentralized, untraceable by default, uncensorable, private money. Its actual usage online as a medium of exchange has remained strong and continues to expand unabated by exchange delistings and government sanctions. Its adoption has been slow, organic, and relentless since its inception over a decade ago. I believe it represents an asymmetric bet with limited downside and large potential upside. I will never bullpost claiming someone is going to make HUGE returns, but history has shown a compounding appreciation of value that is poised to continue. April 2025: Earlier in the year, there was a persistent rumor that a massive price surge was due to a hacker dumping a large quantity of Bitcoin who then proceeded to convert it without regard to exchange rate into Monero. Whether true or not, that was the "reason" framing the narrative as price rocketed from Monero's normal, relatively stable range to a significant breakout. Once this price action peaked, a new "news" cycle began to hit social media... August 2025: In August 2025, another project named Qubic sparked crypto market panic by claiming a 51% attack on Monero via its "Useful Proof of Work" mining pool, alleging temporary control of over 50% of the network’s hashrate, causing minor chain reorgs and drawing miners with triple-profit promises. Outlets like CoinDesk and Cointelegraph amplified the narrative with unverified reports, including CoinDesk’s August 18 tweet falsely stating Qubic had successfully "attacked" Monero. During this time, being the long term advocate for Monero that I am... I became concerned. I voraciously consumed all the information I could online via social media and blogs. I wanted to understand the threat so that I, as an investor, could act appropriately. I let the fear seep into me. I became scared. I was worried, as the market was, that Monero might actually be doomed to fail. By mid-August, independent analyses from RIAT and experts like Luke Parker debunked the claims as statistical impossibilities and marketing hype, with no double-spends or sustained control proven. One thing I did at the time was try to send a transaction on Monero for testing. It worked. The network was functional. Once the attack was exposed as a failure price resumed its normal albeit volatile and steady price appreciation. The best opportunity for an investor is when there is "blood in the streets." "Be greedy when others are fearful." But I spent my time trying to imbibe what I believed was useful information to inform my decision. So that when price hit $250, a support level and even a number cited by the leader of Qubic I added to my holdings but did not go full port YOLO long. Now in hindsight, my "error" was clear. It wasn't entirely wrong to be risk conscious as one should in any investment. But this event in an asset for which I had exceptional confidence taught me to take social media FUD with a massive grain of salt. I wonder if I had been better off NOT knowing and just following price action alone. One of the core enigmas of investing is that we have to stay informed, but we cannot be drawn into the emotion of the moment; that emotion is already reflected in price. "If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you."
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by norok
Monero’s Glow — While Markets SlowI’ve mentioned in my previous publications that Monero looks stronger than the overall market. It feels like Bitcoin’s correction doesn’t affect it at all, even though I canceled my previous plan (despite the price not reaching my invalidation zone), because sometimes certain details on the chart raise doubts and make me reconsider my decisions. But that’s exactly how I manage my risks and avoid losses. After reviewing my analysis again, it seems that Monero is heading toward 365. I’m also still following my scenario marked by the orange line from one of my earlier publications on this coin. ❌ Plan invalidation level: marked on the chart with a red line at 342.90. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a trading signal. Always make your own decisions and never trade without a stop-loss.
Long
by chart1stry
Orange Path to Glory – Monero’s 420 StoryTwo possible routes are shown on the Monero chart, yet both tell one story — the road to 420. ❌The invalidation zone is highlighted in red at 318,74. 💭 From here, I’m expecting more likely a move down to 324-330 first, before we see Monero shining at 420. That’s the move along the orange arrow. I’m expecting more of a downside first, only then a strong move upward. Let’s see what the chart will show us. This is not financial advice — everyone should manage their own risks
Long
by chart1stry
6
In Silence It Grows — Monero KnowsWhy did no one notice my first post about Monero? 🤔 Even during the recent drops, it never fell below my invalidation zone — not even close! That shows Monero is holding much stronger than the market. In my view, something is forming now that could lead to a serious pump. 🚀 🎯 Target 1: 364 🎯 Target 2: 420 🌕 Global Target: 500 ❌ Invalidation Zone: moved up from 318.74 ➜ 329 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not a trading signal or financial advice. Always make your own decisions based on your own analysis and risk management — and never trade without stop-losses.
Long
by chart1stry
1
XMRUSD Can this Channel Up hold and push it higher?Monero (XMRUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the February 06 2024 Low and last Friday's flash crash almost tested its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). The last time this got hit was on the August 16 2025 Low, which also touched the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the market's natural Support since November 27 2024. As long as this level holds, the Channel Up will remain intact and should technically push for a new Higher High. Ahead of a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross formation (possibly even today), we can assume that XMR will go for at least a +79.64% rally from the recent Low, which has been the 'weakest' Bullish Leg within this pattern. That gives us a $420 Target that would match the May 26 2025 High. Technically the Bullish Leg can also complete a +128.49% rise (strongest Bullish Leg of the pattern), even go as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, again as long as the 1W MA50 holds. If it fails to support though, be ready for a potential 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test around $190.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:XMRUSD
by TradingShot
Monero vs USD: Breakout Levels and Layered Trade Setup⚡ XMR/USD | Monero vs USD – Bullish Money Looting Plan 🎭💰 🔑 Trade Plan Overview Bias: Bullish (Swing/Scalping Hybrid Setup) Strategy: Pending Order Breakout + Layered Entries (“Thief Layers” style) Entry Plan (Thief Layering Style) 🔹 Breakout Trigger: 270.00 ⚡ (set alert to catch breakout easily) 🔹 Layered Limit Entries: 260.00 264.00 267.00 270.00 ⚡ (More layers can be added based on personal risk appetite.) 🛡 Stop Loss (Thief Protection) 🔹 Core SL idea: 256.00 🛑 (placed after breakout confirmation) 🔹 ⚠️ Reminder for Thief OG’s: Always adjust SL with your own strategy & risk control. 🎯 Target Zone (Escape with Loot) 🔹 Targeting 295.00 🏰 🔹 ⚡ Zone is near electric trap resistance + overbought area → Be wise, exit before the market turns against you. 🔹 Note: Everyone has their own profit-taking style → Take the loot at your comfort! 📌 Extra Notes (Thief OG Reminder) 🔹 This is a layering strategy with multiple limit buys to reduce risk and improve entry precision. 🔹 Breakout confirmation is key 🔑 before activating the plan. 🔹 Not financial advice — only my personal “thief-style” trading plan. 🚀 XMR/USD Market Report – September 04, 2025 💰 Current Snapshot Price: $261.11 USD 24h Change: -0.11% 📉 (Slight dip amid broader market consolidation) Market Cap: $4.93B (Stable in top 30 cryptos) Key Trend: Neutral with bearish lean, but privacy demand keeps it resilient 🛡️ 📊 Trader Sentiment Outlook Investor mood is mixed but leaning cautious: Retail Traders: 58% Bullish 🟢 (Up from 52% last week; fueled by community defense & new GMX trading pairs) Institutional Traders: 45% Bullish 🟡 (Delistings limit exposure, but privacy-focused funds see inflows; whales added 340M XMR) 👉 Investors stay watchful, with only 40% green days in the last month. Privacy features act as a hedge in volatile markets, keeping confidence intact despite short-term pressure. 😨📈 Fear & Greed Index Score: 49 (Neutral) ⚖️ Fear factors: Exchange delistings & macro uncertainty (tariffs, inflation). Greed factors: Network resilience & ETF buzz for privacy coins. 🔎 Market feels balanced – not fearful, not euphoric → ideal for steady accumulation. 🔍 Fundamental Score Score: 8/10 🟢 (Strong Privacy Edge) Strengths: Untraceable transactions (ring signatures + stealth addresses). No pre-mine, ASIC-resistant → decentralized & secure. Adoption in DeFi + payments keeps rising. Tail emission model ensures long-term network security. Weakness: Limited exchange listings = reduced liquidity. ⚡ Verdict: Fundamentals make Monero the gold standard for privacy in a surveilled world. 🌍 Macro Score Score: 6/10 🟡 (Mixed Global Winds) Fed rate cuts + ETF inflows bring liquidity boost. Tariffs & sticky inflation = added volatility. Bitcoin dominance (60%+) pressures alts. Privacy demand rising with global surveillance concerns. US policies move toward clarity ✅, EU privacy coin bans loom ❌. 🔮 Outlook: Liquidity-driven bullishness, but September jobs data could spark swings. 🎯 Overall Market Outlook Bearish Short-Term 📉🟡 – but potential reversal brewing: Corrective pullback from May highs → likely chop toward $235 support. Technicals: Bearish crossover (20-day MA < 50-day). RSI at 47 = neutral momentum. Long-Term View: Privacy utility + easing macro could drive breakout → $300+ if $270 resistance breaks. 🔥 Main Takeaways: Privacy king in uncertain times 🛡️ Neutral sentiment, dips = smart accumulation zones 💎 Macro volatility ahead – patience is key ⏳ 📌 Data reflects real-time market conditions; always DYOR before trading. 🔎 Related Pairs to Watch ($) 🔹BTCUSD 🔹ETHUSD 🔹LTCUSD 🔹 DASHUSD 🔹 ZECUSD ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #XMRUSD #Monero #CryptoTrading #SwingTrade #Scalping #BreakoutStrategy #TradingPlan #LayeringStrategy #ThiefTrader
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by The-Thief
Monero Builds Momentum, Potential 10% Breakout Toward 358$Hello✌️ Let’s analyze Monero’s price action both technically and fundamentally 📈. 🔍Fundamental analysis: Monero’s new FCMP++ upgrade could make old transactions quantum-safe and boost privacy again, keeping XMR strong in a world of rising digital surveillance. 💻🔐 📊Technical analysis: KUCOIN:XMRUSDT is approaching a strong monthly trendline and support zone; holding this level and breaking above resistance could trigger a 10% rally toward $358. Traders may watch for bullish confirmation at these key levels. 📈💎 📈Using My Analysis to Open Your Position: You can use my fundamental and technical insights along with the chart. The red and green arrows on the left help you set entry, take-profit, and stop-loss levels, serving as clear signals for your trades.⚡️ Also, please review the TradingView disclaimer carefully.🛡 ✨We put love into every post! Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks, Mad Whale
Long
by MadWhale
1
Monero’s 3% Dip: Fibonacci Says AccumulateXMR/USDT – Potential Accumulation Zone in Play Monero (XMR) has dropped 3.14% on the 45-minute chart, currently trading around 295.48 USDT. Using Fibonacci retracement and Ichimoku Cloud analysis, a potential accumulation zone is identified between 288.16 and 256.86 USDT. Key resistance levels at 319.47, 331.43, and 338.82 suggest a structured pullback. This dip could present a strategic entry point for traders anticipating a reversal or preparing for long-term positioning. 💬 “This area shows potential for coin accumulation.”
Short
by cakpras
XMRUSD - Monero And It's Warning-LinesToday we’re analyzing Monero, with a focus on a new aspect of Median Lines — the Warning Lines, or WL for short. Warning Lines are simply extensions of the distance between the Center Line (CL) and one of the Median Line’s outer boundaries, either the Upper Median Line Parallel (U-MLH) or the Lower Median Line Parallel (L-MLH). So why are they important for us in our trading? As you can see, WL1 and WL2 mark important price levels. WL2 is where price reversed, while WL1 acts as resistance. Just like with the standard lines, our full trading rule set applies to Warning Lines too. This includes scenarios like a Hagopian, a breakout or "Zoom Through," and the Test and Re-Test. Now, looking at the current analysis: The price was rejected at WL1 after falling from WL2. This shows strong resistance at WL1, and now the price is heading toward the U-MLH. If the price breaks below the U-MLH and starts opening and closing within the Fork again, there’s a strong chance it will move back toward the Center Line in the near future. That could be your signal to take more profits, close the position, or possibly even short Monero. Personally, I find it difficult to short crypto due to the high risk of manipulation by whales in the market. I prefer not to get caught in a short position if the price suddenly gaps to the upside. So I probably look to take a new position or add to an existing one, since it is a fair level where price found it's center. That’s it for today. Did you learn something new? Great. See you next time, and trade safe.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDShort
by HowToChart
2
Monero: The Ultimate Financial Survivor or a Digital Illusion?Introduction: The Search for an Unbreakable Asset In an age marked by escalating global tensions, fragile supply chains, and unprecedented monetary policies, the question of where to store wealth for the long term has taken on a new urgency. The traditional playbook of stocks, bonds, and real estate feels increasingly vulnerable, tied as it is to the very systems that appear to be under strain. For centuries, physical gold was the undisputed answer—a tangible, scarce, and universally accepted store of value, independent of any government or corporation. However, the digital revolution has introduced a new class of assets, and with it, a radical new thesis. This argument posits that in a true societal collapse—a scenario of hyperinflation, widespread conflict, or the rise of an oppressive surveillance state—only one form of value would prove truly resilient, functional, and safe: the cryptocurrency Monero. The claim is audacious: that when the world as we know it ceases to function, Monero will not just survive but will become the only viable medium of exchange. This report delves into the powerful arguments underpinning this belief, examining the unique technology that sets Monero apart, the perceived failures of all other asset classes in a crisis, and the significant, practical challenges that confront this "doomsday investment" theory. The core of the argument rests on a return to first principles. In a world without stable governments or trusted institutions, the essential properties of money—privacy, fungibility, security, portability, and decentralization—become paramount. Proponents contend that while other assets, including the cryptocurrency pioneer Bitcoin, compromise on one or more of these critical features, Monero’s fundamental design makes it uniquely suited for the ultimate test of survival. The Architecture of Anonymity: What Makes Monero a Digital Ghost To grasp the Monero thesis, one must first understand the cryptographic innovations that make it the undisputed leader in financial privacy. Unlike transparent cryptocurrencies where every transaction is a public entry on a permanent ledger, Monero was engineered with mandatory, unbreakable privacy as its default setting. This is not an optional feature; it is the very fabric of the network, woven from a combination of three core technologies. 1. Ring Signatures: Erasing the Sender. When a user sends Monero, their transaction is not signed with a single, identifiable digital signature. Instead, the protocol automatically gathers a number of past transaction outputs from the blockchain to act as decoys. The sender’s true signature is mixed into this group, creating a "ring" of plausible signers. To an outside observer, any one of the participants in the ring could be the actual sender, making it computationally impossible to prove which one it was. This provides powerful plausible deniability, effectively severing the link between an individual and their specific expenditures. 2. Stealth Addresses: Shielding the Recipient. Monero ensures the privacy of the receiver through the use of stealth addresses. In most cryptocurrencies, a user has a public wallet address that can be reused, allowing anyone to see all the payments sent to that address. This creates a public history of one's income. Monero eliminates this. For every single transaction, a new, unique, one-time address is generated on behalf of the recipient. This address cannot be publicly linked back to the recipient's main wallet or to any other transaction they have received. Only the sender and receiver, using their private keys, can make the connection. This prevents the mapping of a user’s financial network and the calculation of their total wealth. 3. Ring Confidential Transactions (RingCT): Concealing the Amount. The final piece of the privacy puzzle is the concealment of the transaction amount itself. Through a cryptographic proof system, Monero is able to validate that a transaction is legitimate—ensuring no new currency is created out of thin air—without ever revealing the actual numbers involved. The amounts are encrypted on the public ledger. This prevents financial surveillance, where large or unusual transactions could draw unwanted attention from hostile actors, be they desperate governments or opportunistic criminals. These three pillars work in concert to create a truly opaque financial system. When combined with network-level obfuscation techniques that hide the IP address of a transaction's origin, the result is a system that is not merely pseudonymous, but anonymous. This leads to its most critical economic property in a crisis: true fungibility. Fungibility is the quality of an asset where every unit is identical and interchangeable with every other unit. A dollar bill is fungible, but a diamond is not. In transparent cryptocurrencies, coins can become "tainted" by their history; if they were previously used in a crime, they can be blacklisted by exchanges or vendors. With Monero, this is impossible. Since no coin has a traceable history, every Monero is clean, equal, and freely exchangeable, just like cash. A World in Flames: Why Other Havens Fail The case for Monero is built as much on the inherent weaknesses of its competitors as on its own strengths. In a true systemic breakdown, every other major asset class reveals a fatal flaw. • Fiat Currencies, Stocks, and Bonds: These are the first casualties. They are not assets in themselves, but rather claims on the health and stability of governments and corporations. In a hyperinflationary depression or a civil war, the paper promises of a failed state or a defunct company become worthless. Their value is entirely dependent on a complex legal and financial infrastructure that would no longer exist. • Real Estate: Property is tangible, but it is also immobile and illiquid. In a lawless environment, property rights are only as strong as one’s ability to physically defend them. A house or a plot of land can be seized, destroyed, or rendered inaccessible, making it a liability rather than an asset. One cannot flee a collapsing city with a building in their pocket. • Gold and Precious Metals: Gold is the timeless hedge against chaos. It is physical, carries no counterparty risk, and has been valued for millennia. However, it suffers from severe practical limitations in a modern collapse. It is heavy and difficult to transport securely. It is not easily divisible for small, everyday purchases. Verifying its authenticity requires specialized tools and knowledge, making transactions slow and risky. Storing it safely makes you a target. • Bitcoin: As the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin offers portability, divisibility, and digital scarcity. It is often called "digital gold." However, its transparent ledger is a catastrophic vulnerability in a world of turmoil. A desperate government or a sophisticated criminal organization could use blockchain analysis to identify large holders, track their every transaction, and target them for expropriation or violence. Having a permanent, public, and unchangeable record of your entire financial history is the opposite of what one would want when trying to maintain a low profile and survive. • Stablecoins: These digital tokens are pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. They are designed for price stability within the current system, not for surviving its demise. They are centrally issued and controlled, requiring complete trust in the entity holding the reserves. In a scenario where the dollar itself is collapsing, a stablecoin is merely a digital reflection of that failure. Monero, its advocates claim, elegantly solves these dilemmas. It combines the portability and divisibility of Bitcoin with the privacy and fungibility of untraceable cash. It is more easily secured and transported than gold. And it exists entirely outside the control of the failing institutions that underpin all traditional financial assets. The Sobering Reality: Counterarguments to the Digital Savior Despite the compelling logic, the theory of Monero as the ultimate doomsday asset faces a series of harsh, practical realities that may prove to be its undoing. These challenges question the very foundation of its utility when the lights go out. 1. The Paradox of Infrastructure. The greatest challenge to any digital currency is its absolute dependence on modern technology. Monero transactions require electricity to power devices and a functioning internet to connect to the network. In a true "world blows up" scenario—characterized by a grid-down event, an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or the destruction of core internet infrastructure—the Monero network would become fragmented at best, and completely inaccessible at worst. While niche solutions like satellite uplinks, radio broadcasts, and local mesh networks are theoretically possible, they are far from being robust, widespread, or easy to use. For the average person, their digital wealth would be trapped behind an insurmountable wall of dead technology. 2. The Human Factor and the Usability Gap. Even under normal conditions, securely managing cryptocurrency is a complex and unforgiving task. It requires a significant degree of technical literacy to handle private keys, seed phrases, wallet software, and cold storage protocols. Now, imagine trying to do this in a high-stress, post-collapse environment while concerned with finding food, water, and shelter. The cognitive burden would be immense. The risk of making a single, irreversible error—losing a seed phrase, sending funds to the wrong address, or having a device compromised—is extraordinarily high. The operational security required to safely manage digital assets is simply beyond the reach of the vast majority of the population, especially in a crisis. 3. The Last Mile Problem. An asset’s value is ultimately determined by its ability to be exchanged for essential goods and services. While a small, dedicated community of users may transact purely in Monero, this is a microscopic niche. In a widespread crisis, the fundamental challenge would be converting digital value into physical necessities. One must find a counterparty—a farmer, a doctor, a mechanic—who not only possesses the required goods but is also willing and able to accept a purely digital currency. In the immediate aftermath of a collapse, the primal logic of barter would likely take precedence. A can of beans or a box of ammunition would hold more immediate, tangible value than a string of encrypted code. 4. The Specter of Security Flaws. While Monero's cryptographic foundations are widely considered to be state-of-the-art, no system is perfect. The network is a constant target for researchers and adversaries seeking to break its privacy guarantees. Theoretical attacks have been proposed that, while complex and difficult to execute, suggest that under certain conditions, a highly sophisticated and well-funded adversary could potentially de-anonymize some users. Furthermore, the health of the network itself is a concern. In a global crisis, a significant drop in the number of people running nodes and mining could make the network more susceptible to disruption or a "51% attack," where a malicious actor could gain control of the ledger. Conclusion: An Imperfect Hedge for an Uncertain Future The proposition that Monero would emerge as the sole functioning investment from the ashes of a global catastrophe is a fascinating and powerful thought experiment. It correctly identifies the profound fragility of our current financial system and even exposes the critical privacy flaws in mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Monero’s technological design offers a truly remarkable and unparalleled combination of privacy, security, and fungibility in the digital world. It is the closest humanity has come to creating a weightless, borderless, and untraceable form of cash. However, the thesis ultimately overreaches, mistaking technological elegance for practical invincibility. The absolute reliance on a functioning technological infrastructure is a fatal flaw in any true doomsday scenario. The immense complexity of its use creates a barrier that would exclude the majority of people precisely when they would need a safe haven the most. The fundamental challenge of exchanging digital code for physical survival goods remains largely unsolved. Therefore, while Monero is an exceptionally powerful tool for preserving wealth and privacy in an era of increasing surveillance and financial instability, it is not a silver bullet. To declare it the only viable investment in a total collapse is to succumb to a form of digital idealism that ignores the messy, physical realities of survival. A more prudent approach to preparing for such a future would involve diversification across asset classes that address different failure points. Such a strategy might combine the digital privacy of Monero with the timeless, tangible security of physical precious metals, the practical necessity of storable goods, and, most importantly, the acquisition of real-world skills. Monero may well be the digital ghost that survives the crash of the global machine, but its utility would be severely limited in a world where the machine itself has been unplugged.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
XMR 3 Month Heikin Ashi Trend ChartWe have here a trend outlook chart for Monero on a 3 monthly timeframe (Heikin Ashi candlestick chart). XMR is one of a handful of high market cap coins which have showed signs of strength on a variety of indicators (despite high volatility with various other high market cap coins), including the positive MACD and RSI indicators as shown in this chart. In addition, there has been significant buy volume in the 170 - 277 price range, as can be seen in the Price-Volume indicator to the right of the chart, keeping the price up. Monero has withstood the political and economic turmoil in recent months making it a strong contender against some of the largest market cap coins. With the current price sitting at approximately USD$315, there is potential for further upside in the long-term. _____________ This publication and the information contained in it are for educational purposes only, and is not meant to be nor does it constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice or recommendations.
KRAKEN:XMRUSD
by PurpleCrypto
Is XMRUSDT About to Explode? Key Levels to WatchYello, Paradisers! The recent ABC correction on #XMR has officially wrapped up, ending with a textbook Ending Diagonal pattern. And you know what that usually means: a reversal is cooking, and the bulls might just be sharpening their horns for a comeback. 💎The current resistance zone sits between $325 and $330, and this level will be the first real test for the bulls. If momentum is strong enough, price could see an immediate breakout. However, there’s also a high chance this area forms a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern first, a setup that would give us an even stronger confirmation of reversal once the neckline breaks above $330. This is where smart money will be watching closely. 💎Once #XMRUSDT manages to break through $330 with convincing volume, the next upside target becomes $360 to $370. This isn’t just another resistance level, it aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, making it a high-confluence zone. Expect strong profit-taking activity here, which could trigger volatility or short-term pullbacks 💎On the downside, moderate support exists between $300 and $305, which should act as a buffer against short-term pressure. It’s likely to hold unless broader market sentiment shifts sharply. Paradisers, strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise