XPDUSD Long AnalysisPalladium has shifted from a mid-August downtrend into a choppy recovery and now shows signs of a trending bullish phase on the 4-hour timeframe. Price has cleared short-term resistance around 1,176.87 → 1,246.75 and is currently trading ~1,237 (your chart). The moving averages have flattened then begun to slope upward, and the most recent swing shows a higher low / higher high rhythm — the basic condition you want for a bullish continuation.
The chart’s annotated zones show a clear supply band around 1,246.7 (nearby resistance) and a higher upside magnet around 1,366.84 (your marked major target). That gives a visible path for an upside trade with a defined invalidation area below recent demand.
Why bulls have the edge now:
• Price is back above the shorter MAs and testing the prior supply band — buyers have absorbed previous selling.
• The 4H swing structure: recent higher lows vs earlier lows (buyers defending lower levels).
• Momentum in the last push is relatively clean (no long upper wick exhaustion) — the move is controlled, not a spike.
Important macro/contextual notes (trade-sensitivity):
• Palladium is sensitive to industrial/catalytic demand and to USD strength; watch auto demand news and USD moves.
• Palladium can gap on low liquidity and on supply/disruption headlines — plan for slippage around big events.
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Key levels to respect (copy/paste friendly)
• Current price (approx): 1,237.11
• Immediate resistance (short-term supply): 1,246.75
• Primary support (near-term demand / pullback buy zone): 1,176.87
• Major upside target / magnet: 1,366.84
• Deeper support (if bulls fail): lower dotted green levels on your chart (≈ 1,100–1,050 area historically)
A clean 4H close above 1,246.75 removes local supply pressure and is the simplest technical confirmation for the next leg up toward 1,366.84. Conversely, a decisive 4H close back below 1,176.87 would invalidate this bullish plan and suggest re-evaluation.
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Trade risk plan & management (rules you should follow)
• Position sizing: size so the dollar risk to your stop equals 1–2% of account equity. That keeps any single loss manageable.
• Partial profits: take 30–40% at the first meaningful resistance on the way up (see trade setups below). This locks gains while leaving a runner for the bigger target.
• Stop management: after a first partial is taken, move your stop to breakeven (or a small profit) to make the remainder risk-free. Then trail the stop under each new 4H higher low (or use a volatility trail like 1.5×ATR(20,4H)) to give the trade room while protecting gains.
• Event risk: reduce size or avoid adding right before major macro/industry events that can move metals (e.g., major US data, central bank windows, supply/disruption news).
• Plan for slippage: Palladium can gap — factor realistic slippage and wider fills into your sizing and stop placement.
• Fail scenario: if price closes below 1,176.87 on 4H, exit and wait for a new structure to form.
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Trade setups (bullets only)
A) Breakout (higher-probability, confirmation entry)
• Entry: buy after a confirmed 4H close above 1,246.75, or on the retest of 1,246.75 after that close (better risk control).
• Stop-loss: 1,200 (below the breakout zone and recent short-term structure).
• Take Profit 1: 1,320 → take 30–40% off.
• Take Profit 2: 1,366.84 → scale out remaining position (trail remaining).
• Sizing tip: risk 1% of equity to the stop for the full position.
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Execution checklist (quick)
1. Confirm no major data/event in the next 4-12 hours (if you’re entering short term).
2. Prefer a 4H close above 1,246.75 for the breakout plan, or a clear price action buy signal in 1,200–1,176.87 for the pullback plan.
3. Place stop and position size to risk 1–2% max.
4. Book partials at TP1, move stop to breakeven, then trail using 4H higher lows or 1.5×ATR.
5. If the market closes 4H below 1,176.87, exit and reassess.
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Final takeaway
Technically this is a bullish, controlled setup: structure shows buyers defending lower levels and the path to ~1,367 is clear if price can hold above local demand and overcome the short supply band at 1,246.7. Use disciplined sizing, partial profit-taking at intermediate resistance, and an active trailing stop to protect gains — that combination gives you upside capture while controlling downside risk.
