Zcash: Mapping the Multi-Layer Retest | Path to Trendline RetestZcash will enter a critical decision phase if price falls and holds under $491, which suggests a potential shift in momentum that places us in a consolidation range. We would then be operating within a consolidation box potentially. My focus is on the multi-layered support structure below us.
Near-Term Bullish Structure: We must hold the $473–$479 area. A bounce and break back above the 490s here keeps the immediate momentum intact.
The Fake-out Risk: Watch $468 closely. "Prior highs become support" logic suggests a bounce point, Could be a potential fake-out zone to catch late shorts chasing a trendline breakdown—don't get trapped.
The Mid-Layer: Below the potential fake-out zone, we have a secondary structural layer encompassing the prior and secondary highs.
The Macro Target: The actual trendline retest—and the highest-probability entry—sits in the $432–$435 confluence zone. This is the 3rd layer where the full breakout logic is truly tested.
⚠️ Risk Management & Invalidation
While the outlook remains constructive above the trendline, we must respect the downside risk:
The Red Flag: If price falls and closes under $425, the bullish retest thesis is under significant pressure.
Structural Breakdown: A break under the $390–$405 zone would suggest that the probability of a further breakdown has increased significantly.
The "C-Wave" Scenario: Losing the $390 level could trigger a major C-Wave correction, potentially leading to a deep retracement as low as the mid-$200s.
