FTSE 100 stalls at record highs: Double top or breakout to 10k?The FTSE 100 is flirting with a potential double top at 9,950 as markets reopen after Christmas. While a bullish ascending triangle could be building on the 4-hour chart, heavy pressure on defence stocks amid new Ukraine peace talks is creating a battle between a breakout to 10,000 and a correction back to 9,600.
In this video, we break down the macro headwinds hitting BAE Systems and Babcock as investors price in de-escalation risks. Then, we map out the technical tug-of-war: a bullish continuation toward the psychological 10k mark versus a bearish double-top reversal targeting 9,770 and lower.
Key drivers
Defence sector drag : Reports of positive peace talks between Trump and Zelenskyy have triggered profit-taking in defence majors, weighing on the index. However, rotation into defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals is keeping the FTSE relatively stable.
Double top vs. ascending triangle : Price stalled again at the 9,950 record high, forming a double top. Yet, higher lows on the 4-hour chart suggest an ascending triangle—a continuation pattern that could fuel a breakout.
RSI divergence : The 4-hour RSI is showing bearish divergence and drifting toward the 50 line, signalling waning momentum. A reset to 30 could coincide with a deeper pullback if support fails.
Key levels :
Upside : A break above 9,950 targets the psychological 10,000 barrier.
Downside : Immediate support lies at 9,850. Below that, 9,770 is crucial structure. Losing 9,620 and finally 9,440 would confirm a trend reversal.
Trade plan :
Bearish : Sell a breakdown below 9,850 targeting 9,770 and 9,620.
Bullish : Buy a break above 9,950 targeting 10k, but beware of limited upside compared to downside risk at these levels.
Are you betting on the 10k breakout or fading the double top? Share your FTSE strategy in the comments and follow for more market updates.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Zelensky
Can WTI’s 8% Rally Hold After Trump-Putin Summit Collapse?WTI just staged its biggest two-day rally since June, as hopes for a Trump-Putin summit were dashed, leading to new US sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Here’s what’s fuelling the move and what traders should watch next:
- US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers after failed Budapest summit trigger supply fears and spike prices
- Trump escalates rhetoric to maintain leverage as Zelensky signs military deals with Sweden, raising geopolitical stakes
- WTI reclaims key $61 resistance, with daily RSI momentum signalling room to run and a possible cup & handle breakout toward $68
- Supply glitch fears (India, OPEC’s slow reaction) and technicals all support continued upside if the current environment holds
Watch for buy the dip signals, respect $61 support, and target the $65–68 channel top if current drivers persist.
Stay tuned!
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Scholz and Macron: Europe, arms for Ukraine
Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated their commitment to providing military aid to Ukraine. This decision comes at a crucial time, with the conflict continuing to profoundly affect the global economy and geopolitics.
### Implications for the war and Europe
Scholz and Macron's choice to continue with military supplies underscores Europe's determination to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, this stance could escalate tensions with Moscow, which has already expressed its displeasure. The war in Ukraine has already had a significant impact on the European economy, with energy prices rising and supply chains disrupted. Continuing to supply weapons could prolong the conflict, but could also strengthen Europe's position as a key player in defending democratic values.
### Impact on Forex
The news has significant implications for the Forex market. Several currency pairs could be significantly affected:
- **EUR/USD**: The euro could come under pressure due to economic uncertainties and Europe's exposure to the conflict. On the other hand, the US dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status.
- **USD/RUB**: The Russian ruble could see further depreciation due to geopolitical tensions and potential new Western sanctions against Russia.
- **EUR/GBP**: The euro-sterling relationship could be affected, with the euro under pressure and the pound showing relative stability, as the UK is less directly exposed to the conflict.
- **USD/CHF**: The Swiss franc, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, could also strengthen against the US dollar in the event of further escalations.
- **AUD/USD and CAD/USD**: Commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars could see increased volatility, as natural resource markets remain affected by the conflict.
### Conclusion
Scholz and Macron’s decision to continue supplying weapons to Kiev is a strong signal of European solidarity, but it brings with it significant challenges. Forex investors should carefully monitor the listed currency pairs and geopolitical developments, as volatility could offer opportunities, but also risks.
Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls
Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market.
In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations.
Trump-Zelensky Phone Call
The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia.
Trump-Putin Call
The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5.
Impact on the Forex Market
These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed.
Conclusion
The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
Trump and Zelenskyy Clash | I Predicted BTC crash week ago
As I mentioned a week ago, Bitcoin (BTC) was poised for a correction, and we’ve now seen this play out over the past few days. On the 1D timeframe, Bitcoin tested its Fair Value Gap (FVG) and reversed from that zone. Today’s closing candle showed some bullish pressure, indicating a potential reversal toward the 90,000 – 92,000 range. The FVG was tested cleanly, and the reversal was strong.
What’s Next? Donald Trump and Zelenskyy Clash
While the market showed a healthy reversal from the FVG, recent news of a clash between Donald Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House has introduced uncertainty. Trump’s statement that “President Zelenskyy is not ready for peace” has created a negative sentiment in the market. If tensions escalate further, this could lead to a bearish impact on the market, as geopolitical instability often weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Expected BTC Zones
Given the current situation, here are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bearish Impact from Geopolitical News
If the clash between Trump and Zelenskyy escalates and fear spreads in the market, Bitcoin could drop to the 73,500–76,000 zone in the coming days.
Scenario 2: Recovery Continues
If the news has a limited impact and the market stabilizes, Bitcoin could continue its reversal from the FVG and gradually move back toward the $92,000 zone.
Key Takeaways:
Trade with Caution:
Given the current geopolitical developments, it’s crucial to trade carefully and use stop losses to protect against sudden market moves.
Monitor News:
Keep an eye on further developments between Trump and Zelenskyy, as they could significantly influence market sentiment.
Note
My goal is to simplify the chart and help you understand the price action clearly. I avoid overloading the chart with unnecessary indicators or creating confusion. My analysis focuses on keeping the chart clean and straightforward.
Thank you!




