Macro-Filtered Volatility Breakout (MVB)

策略簡介：
這是一套專門針對高 Beta 值資產（如 ETH, SOL 等山寨幣）設計的趨勢跟隨系統。我們解決了傳統突破策略在山寨幣市場中「假突破（False Breakout）」過多的痛點。

核心邏輯：
市場體制過濾（Regime Filtering）： 加密貨幣市場具有高度的相關性。本策略引入比特幣（BTC）作為**「宏觀市場指標」**，只有當 BTC 處於確立的多頭趨勢時，才允許執行山寨幣的做多信號。這有效規避了「大盤崩盤時，小幣假突破」的系統性風險。

動態波動率通道： 我們不使用固定價格止損，而是採用肯特納通道（Keltner Channels）。這利用 ATR（平均真實波幅）動態調整進出場區間：在市場平靜時通道收窄以敏銳捕捉啟動點，在劇烈波動時通道放寬以避免被雜訊洗出場。

風控特徵：
系統性避險： 透過 BTC 趨勢濾網，在熊市或大盤回調期間自動空手，降低回撤。
獲利奔跑（Let Profits Run）： 採用基於波動率的移動止損（Volatility Trailing Stop），在大趨勢中能吃到完整的魚身。

免責聲明：
以上策略分享僅供學術研究、回測實驗與邏輯參考，並不代表對未來獲利的保證。 過往的回測績效不代表未來的行情表現。本文內容不構成任何投資建議。加密貨幣交易具有高度風險，使用者應自行評估風險承受能力並自負盈虧，本人不承擔任何因使用此策略而產生的資金損失。

Strategy Overview

This is a trend-following system specifically designed for high-beta assets, such as altcoins like ETH, SOL, and similar cryptocurrencies. The strategy addresses a key weakness of traditional breakout systems in altcoin markets—the high frequency of false breakouts.

Core Logic

Market Regime Filtering
The cryptocurrency market exhibits strong cross-asset correlation. This strategy uses Bitcoin (BTC) as a macro market indicator. Long signals on altcoins are only allowed when BTC is in a confirmed bullish trend, effectively avoiding the systemic risk of altcoin false breakouts during broader market downturns.

Dynamic Volatility Channels
Instead of fixed-price stop losses, the strategy employs Keltner Channels, which adapt dynamically using ATR (Average True Range).

During low-volatility conditions, the channel narrows to sensitively capture early trend initiation.

During high-volatility environments, the channel widens to prevent premature exits caused by market noise.

Risk Management Features

Systematic Risk Avoidance
By applying BTC trend filtering, the strategy automatically stays in cash during bear markets or major market pullbacks, significantly reducing drawdowns.

Let Profits Run
A volatility-based trailing stop is used to maximize profit capture during strong directional trends, allowing positions to benefit from the full trend structure.

Disclaimer

The strategy presented above is for academic research, backtesting experiments, and logical reference only. It does not constitute a guarantee of future performance. Past backtest results are not indicative of future outcomes. This content does not represent any investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk, and users should assess their own risk tolerance and assume full responsibility for any gains or losses. The author bears no liability for any financial losses incurred from the use of this strategy.