Price Probability Engine - Volatility & Structure-Based Targets

Price Probability Engine — Volatility & Structure-Based Targets is a lightweight price-target framework that blends volatility, market structure, and measured-move logic into a single averaged target on both the bullish and bearish side.

Rather than predicting price, this indicator highlights probable near-term price zones by combining three independent target methodologies and weighting them based on proximity and alignment.

The script is intentionally minimal, stable, and scale-locked for consistent chart behavior across timeframes.

What This Indicator Does

The indicator evaluates three independent target components:

1. ATR Targets (Volatility)

Uses Average True Range to define a realistic price reach

Anchored to the current price for near-term relevance

2. Lindsey-Style Measured Moves (Structure)

Detects P1–P2–P3 swing sequences

Projects a P4 continuation target when structure confirms

3. Automatic Fibonacci Extensions (Geometry)

Builds extension targets from recent swing highs and lows

Adds geometric context to price expansion

Each component is filtered for reach, weighted, and averaged into a final AVG Bull and AVG Bear target.

Core Logic (Simplified)

Reach Filter (x ATR)
Only targets within a configurable ATR distance are considered.
This keeps the model focused on probable price interaction, not distant projections.

Dynamic Weighting
Targets closer to the current price receive greater influence.
More distant targets contribute less, even if valid.

Outlier Trimming
If one component is significantly out of alignment with the others, it is excluded to prevent distortion.

No Repainting
All calculations are based on confirmed pivots and current volatility.
The indicator does not use future data.

Visual Output

AVG Bull line → probabilistic bullish price zone

AVG Bear line → probabilistic bearish price zone

Optional labels display the averaged target values on the most recent bar

The script is scale-locked to the chart’s price axis to prevent vertical drifting or floating behavior.

How to Use This Indicator
1. Think in Zones, Not Exact Prices

The AVG targets represent areas where price is statistically more likely to react, pause, or resolve — not guaranteed turning points.

Use them as:

Planning levels

Partial profit zones

Risk-management references

Context for other indicators

2. Watch for Confluence

Targets are strongest when:

Fib, Lindsey, and ATR components cluster tightly

Price approaches the AVG level with slowing momentum

Structure confirms the direction

Loose or widely spaced components indicate lower confidence.

3. Adjust for Your Timeframe

This version is optimized for near-term forecasting, especially on:

Daily

4H

1H

You can fine-tune behavior using:

Reach Filter (x ATR)

Dynamic Power (how strongly closer targets dominate)

Base Weights (Fib / Lindsey / ATR influence)

4. What This Indicator Is Not

Not a buy/sell signal

Not a prediction engine

Not a guarantee of future price

It is a probability-based targeting tool designed to support disciplined decision-making.

Final Notes

This indicator works best when combined with:

Your own trend analysis

Structure confirmation

Proper risk management

Markets are probabilistic by nature. This tool is designed to reflect that reality.