Fair Value Matrix

yesterday

Concept & Utility The Fair Value Matrix is a quantitative analysis suite designed to visualize the relationship between an asset's price action and a theoretical valuation model. Unlike standard technical indicators that rely solely on lagging price history, this script integrates a Fundamental Growth Model to project a calculated baseline trajectory derived from sector-specific data and valuation logic.

This tool is intended to assist traders in identifying statistical deviations from this projected baseline, offering a data-driven perspective on whether an asset is trading at a premium or a discount relative to the model's parameters.

Technical Methodology

1. Theoretical Growth Modeling The core of the matrix is a dynamic "Fair Value" curve. This is generated using:

Sector-Specific Growth Logic: The script applies distinct growth parameters adapted for different asset classes (e.g., Technology, Commodities, Utilities) to model theoretical expansion over time.

Dynamic Valuation: It incorporates calculated valuation logic to adjust the slope of the curve, creating a reference point that evolves with time rather than just price action.

2. Statistical Deviation Bands (Volatility Cloud) To quantify market state, the script constructs a "Volatility Cloud" around the fundamental baseline. These bands are not support/resistance lines but statistical probability envelopes calculated using:

Composite Volatility Engine: A proprietary blend of multiple volatility models is used to adapt to changing market conditions.

Statistical Measurement: The bands represent standard deviations from the calculated baseline.

Lower Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical discount.

Upper Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical premium.

3. Quantitative Inflection Points The script monitors price relative to these bands to generate "Inflection Signals":

Mean Reversion Alerts: Triggered when price deviates significantly from the baseline while showing signs of momentum exhaustion.

Momentum Strength: A composite trend line colors the price action based on the aggregate score of volatility, trend direction, and deviation depth.

4. Deviation Weighting Labels The numeric labels (e.g., "1x", "2x") displayed on the chart represent the magnitude of the statistical deviation at that specific moment. These values are strictly mathematical measurements of distance from the mean and are provided to help users assess the rarity of a specific price move relative to the model.

Disclaimer This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It is a theoretical model based on fixed parameters and historical data analysis. It does not predict future price movements, nor does it guarantee profitability. All trading involves risk.

yesterday

Release Notes

Concept & Utility The Fair Value Matrix is a quantitative analysis suite designed to visualize the relationship between an asset's price action and a theoretical valuation model. Unlike standard technical indicators that rely solely on lagging price history, this script integrates a Fundamental Growth Model to project a calculated baseline trajectory derived from sector-specific data and valuation logic.

This tool is intended to assist traders in identifying statistical deviations from this projected baseline, offering a data-driven perspective on whether an asset is trading at a premium or a discount relative to the model's parameters.

Technical Methodology

1. Theoretical Growth Modeling The core of the matrix is a dynamic "Fair Value" curve. This is generated using:

Sector-Specific Growth Logic: The script applies distinct growth parameters adapted for different asset classes (e.g., Technology, Commodities, Utilities) to model theoretical expansion over time.

Dynamic Valuation: It incorporates calculated valuation logic to adjust the slope of the curve, creating a reference point that evolves with time rather than just price action.

2. Statistical Deviation Bands (Volatility Cloud) To quantify market state, the script constructs a "Volatility Cloud" around the fundamental baseline. These bands are not support/resistance lines but statistical probability envelopes calculated using:

Composite Volatility Engine: A proprietary blend of multiple volatility models is used to adapt to changing market conditions.

Statistical Measurement: The bands represent standard deviations from the calculated baseline.

Lower Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical discount.

Upper Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical premium.

3. Quantitative Inflection Points The script monitors price relative to these bands to generate "Inflection Signals":

Mean Reversion Alerts: Triggered when price deviates significantly from the baseline while showing signs of momentum exhaustion.

Momentum Strength: A composite trend line colors the price action based on the aggregate score of volatility, trend direction, and deviation depth.

4. Deviation Weighting Labels The numeric labels (e.g., "1x", "2x") displayed on the chart represent the magnitude of the statistical deviation at that specific moment. These values are strictly mathematical measurements of distance from the mean and are provided to help users assess the rarity of a specific price move relative to the model.

Disclaimer This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It is a theoretical model based on fixed parameters and historical data analysis. It does not predict future price movements, nor does it guarantee profitability. All trading involves risk.

yesterday

Release Notes

Concept & Utility The Fair Value Matrix is a quantitative analysis suite designed to visualize the relationship between an asset's price action and a theoretical valuation model. Unlike standard technical indicators that rely solely on lagging price history, this script integrates a Fundamental Growth Model to project a calculated baseline trajectory derived from sector-specific data and valuation logic.

This tool is intended to assist traders in identifying statistical deviations from this projected baseline, offering a data-driven perspective on whether an asset is trading at a premium or a discount relative to the model's parameters.

Technical Methodology

1. Theoretical Growth Modeling The core of the matrix is a dynamic "Fair Value" curve. This is generated using:

Sector-Specific Growth Logic: The script applies distinct growth parameters adapted for different asset classes (e.g., Technology, Commodities, Utilities) to model theoretical expansion over time.

Dynamic Valuation: It incorporates calculated valuation logic to adjust the slope of the curve, creating a reference point that evolves with time rather than just price action.

2. Statistical Deviation Bands (Volatility Cloud) To quantify market state, the script constructs a "Volatility Cloud" around the fundamental baseline. These bands are not support/resistance lines but statistical probability envelopes calculated using:

Composite Volatility Engine: A proprietary blend of multiple volatility models is used to adapt to changing market conditions.

Statistical Measurement: The bands represent standard deviations from the calculated baseline.

Lower Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical discount.

Upper Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical premium.

3. Quantitative Inflection Points The script monitors price relative to these bands to generate "Inflection Signals":

Mean Reversion Alerts: Triggered when price deviates significantly from the baseline while showing signs of momentum exhaustion.

Momentum Strength: A composite trend line colors the price action based on the aggregate score of volatility, trend direction, and deviation depth.

4. Deviation Weighting Labels The numeric labels (e.g., "1x", "2x") displayed on the chart represent the magnitude of the statistical deviation at that specific moment. These values are strictly mathematical measurements of distance from the mean and are provided to help users assess the rarity of a specific price move relative to the model.

Disclaimer This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It is a theoretical model based on fixed parameters and historical data analysis. It does not predict future price movements, nor does it guarantee profitability. All trading involves risk.
7 hours ago
Release Notes
Concept & Utility The Fair Value Matrix is a quantitative analysis suite designed to visualize the relationship between an asset's price action and a theoretical valuation model. Unlike standard technical indicators that rely solely on lagging price history, this script integrates a Fundamental Growth Model to project a calculated baseline trajectory derived from sector-specific data and valuation logic.

This tool is intended to assist traders in identifying statistical deviations from this projected baseline, offering a data-driven perspective on whether an asset is trading at a premium or a discount relative to the model's parameters.

Technical Methodology

1. Theoretical Growth Modeling The core of the matrix is a dynamic "Fair Value" curve. This is generated using:

Sector-Specific Growth Logic: The script applies distinct growth parameters adapted for different asset classes (e.g., Technology, Commodities, Utilities) to model theoretical expansion over time.

Dynamic Valuation: It incorporates calculated valuation logic to adjust the slope of the curve, creating a reference point that evolves with time rather than just price action.

2. Statistical Deviation Bands (Volatility Cloud) To quantify market state, the script constructs a "Volatility Cloud" around the fundamental baseline. These bands are not support/resistance lines but statistical probability envelopes calculated using:

Composite Volatility Engine: A proprietary blend of multiple volatility models is used to adapt to changing market conditions.

Statistical Measurement: The bands represent standard deviations from the calculated baseline.

Lower Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical discount.

Upper Bands: Represent deviation zones suggesting a statistical premium.

3. Quantitative Inflection Points The script monitors price relative to these bands to generate "Inflection Signals":

Mean Reversion Alerts: Triggered when price deviates significantly from the baseline while showing signs of momentum exhaustion.

Momentum Strength: A composite trend line colors the price action based on the aggregate score of volatility, trend direction, and deviation depth.

4. Deviation Weighting Labels The numeric labels (e.g., "1x", "2x") displayed on the chart represent the magnitude of the statistical deviation at that specific moment. These values are strictly mathematical measurements of distance from the mean and are provided to help users assess the rarity of a specific price move relative to the model.

Disclaimer This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It is a theoretical model based on fixed parameters and historical data analysis. It does not predict future price movements, nor does it guarantee profitability. All trading involves risk.