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BTC Risk
The BTC Risk Metric is a normalized market-cycle indicator designed to quantify how risky Bitcoin is to buy or hold at any point in time relative to its own historical behaviour.
It measures how far price has deviated from its long-term trend by calculating the logarithmic distance between Bitcoin’s price and a long-duration moving average (a 377-day simple moving average), then scales that distance by time to account for Bitcoin’s exponential growth.
This raw value is tracked against its historical extremes and normalized into a 0–1 range, where values near zero correspond to deep, low-risk accumulation zones typically seen around major cycle bottoms, and values near one correspond to high-risk conditions historically associated with late-cycle tops. Rather than predicting price, the metric provides a relative, regime-aware framework for assessing risk across cycles, allowing different market phases to be compared on a consistent scale.
It measures how far price has deviated from its long-term trend by calculating the logarithmic distance between Bitcoin’s price and a long-duration moving average (a 377-day simple moving average), then scales that distance by time to account for Bitcoin’s exponential growth.
This raw value is tracked against its historical extremes and normalized into a 0–1 range, where values near zero correspond to deep, low-risk accumulation zones typically seen around major cycle bottoms, and values near one correspond to high-risk conditions historically associated with late-cycle tops. Rather than predicting price, the metric provides a relative, regime-aware framework for assessing risk across cycles, allowing different market phases to be compared on a consistent scale.
Protected script
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Protected script
This script is published as closed-source. However, you can use it freely and without any limitations – learn more here.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.