The Oracle: Dip & Top Adaptive Sniper [Hakan Yorganci]█ OVERVIEW
The Oracle: Dip & Top Adaptive Sniper is a precision-focused trend trading strategy designed to solve the biggest problem in swing trading: Timing.
Most trend-following strategies chase price ("FOMO"), buying when the asset is already overextended. The Oracle takes a different approach. It adopts a "Sniper" mentality: it identifies a strong macro trend but patiently waits for a Mean Reversion (pullback) to execute an entry at a discounted price.
By combining the structural strength of Moving Averages (SMA 50/200) with the momentum precision of RSI and the volatility filtering of ADX, this script filters out noise and targets high-probability setups.
█ HOW IT WORKS
This strategy operates on a strictly algorithmic protocol known as "The Yorganci Protocol," which involves three distinct phases: Filter, Target, and Execute.
1. The Macro Filter (Trend Identification)
* SMA 200 Rule: By default, the strategy only scans for buy signals when the price is trading above the 200-period Simple Moving Average. This ensures we are always trading in the direction of the long-term bull market.
* Adaptive Switch: A new feature allows users to toggle the Only Buy Above SMA 200? filter OFF. This enables the strategy to hunt for oversold bounces (dead cat bounces) even during bearish or neutral market structures.
2. The Volatility Filter (ADX Integration)
* Sideways Protection: One of the main weaknesses of moving average strategies is "whipsaw" losses during choppy, ranging markets.
* Solution: The Oracle utilizes the ADX (Average Directional Index). It will BLOCK any trade entry if the ADX is below the threshold (Default: 20). This ensures capital is only deployed when a genuine trend is present.
3. The Sniper Entry (Buying the Dip)
* Instead of buying on breakout strength (e.g., RSI > 60), The Oracle waits for the RSI Moving Average to dip into the "Value Zone" (Default: 45) and cross back up. This technique allows for tighter stops and higher Risk/Reward ratios compared to traditional breakout systems.
█ EXIT STRATEGY
The Oracle employs a dynamic dual-exit mechanism to maximize gains and protect capital:
* Take Profit (The Peak): The strategy monitors RSI heat. When the RSI Moving Average breaches the Overbought Threshold (Default: 75), it signals a "Take Profit", securing gains near the local top before a potential reversal.
* Stop Loss (Trend Invalidated): If the market structure fails and the price closes below the 50-period SMA, the position is immediately closed to prevent deep drawdowns.
█ SETTINGS & CONFIGURATION
* Moving Averages: Fully customizable lengths for Support (SMA 50) and Trend (SMA 200).
* Trend Filter: Checkbox to enable/disable the "Bull Market Only" rule.
* RSI Thresholds:
* Sniper Buy Level: Adjustable (Default: 45). Lower values = Deeper dips, fewer trades.
* Peak Sell Level: Adjustable (Default: 75). Higher values = Longer holds, potentially higher profit.
* ADX Filter: Checkbox to enable/disable volatility filtering.
█ BEST PRACTICES
* Timeframe: Designed primarily for 4H (4-Hour) charts for swing trading. It can also be used on 1H for more frequent signals.
* Assets: Highly effective on trending assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and high-volume Altcoins.
* Risk Warning: This strategy is designed for "Long Only" spot or leverage trading. Always use proper risk management.
█ CREDITS
* Original Concept: Inspired by the foundational work of Murat Besiroglu (@muratkbesiroglu).
* Algorithm Development & Enhancements: Developed by Hakan Yorganci (@hknyrgnc).
* Modifications include: Integration of ADX filters, Mean Reversion entry logic (RSI Dip), and Dynamic Peak Profit taking.
Bitcoinprice
Bitcoin Halving Strategy
A systematic, data-driven trading strategy based on Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycles. This strategy capitalizes on historical price patterns that emerge around halving events, providing clear entry and exit signals for both accumulation and profit-taking phases.
🎯 Strategy Overview
This automated trading system identifies optimal buy and sell zones based on the predictable Bitcoin halving cycle that occurs approximately every 4 years. By analyzing historical data from all previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), the strategy pinpoints high-probability trading opportunities.
📊 Key Features
Automated Signal Generation: Buy signals at halving events and DCA zones, sell signals at profit-taking peaks
Multi-Phase Analysis: Tracks Accumulation, Profit Taking, Bear Market, and DCA phases
Visual Dashboard: Real-time performance metrics, phase countdown, and position tracking
Backtesting Enabled: Comprehensive historical performance analysis with configurable parameters
Risk Management: Built-in position sizing, slippage control, and optional short trading
⚙️ Strategy Logic
Buy Signals:
At halving event (Week 0)
DCA zone entry (Week 135 post-halving)
Sell Signals:
Profit-taking zone (Week 80 post-halving)
Optional short position entry for advanced traders
📈 Performance Highlights
Captures major bull run profits while avoiding prolonged bear markets
Clear visual indicators for all phases and transitions
Customizable timing parameters for personalized risk tolerance
Professional dashboard with live P&L, win rate, and drawdown metrics
🛠️ Customization Options
Adjustable phase timing (profit start/end, DCA timing)
Position sizing control
Enable/disable short trading
Visual customization (colors, labels, zones)
Table positioning and transparency
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This strategy is based on historical halving cycle patterns and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
💡 Ideal For
Long-term Bitcoin investors seeking systematic entry/exit points
Swing traders capitalizing on multi-month trends
Portfolio managers implementing cycle-based allocation strategies
Bitcoin CME-Spot Z-Spread - Strategy [presentTrading]This time is a swing trading strategy! It measures the sentiment of the Bitcoin market through the spread of CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread, the strategy seeks to capture mean-reversion opportunities when prices deviate significantly from their historical norms
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is designed to capture mean-reversion opportunities by exploiting the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. The strategy uses Bollinger Bands to detect when the spread between these two correlated assets has deviated significantly from its historical norm, signaling potential overbought or oversold conditions.
What sets this strategy apart is its focus on spread trading between futures and spot markets rather than price-based indicators. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread rather than individual prices, the strategy identifies price inefficiencies across markets, allowing traders to take advantage of the natural reversion to the mean that often occurs in these correlated assets.
BTCUSD 8hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy relies on Bollinger Bands to assess the volatility and relative deviation of the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bands, which help measure how much the spread deviates from its historical mean.
🔶 Spread Calculation:
The spread is calculated by subtracting the Bitfinex spot price from the CME Bitcoin futures price:
Spread = CME Price - Bitfinex Price
This spread represents the difference between the futures and spot markets, which may widen or narrow based on supply and demand dynamics in each market. By analyzing the spread, the strategy can detect when prices are too far apart (potentially overbought or oversold), indicating a trading opportunity.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Calculation:
The Bollinger Bands for the spread are calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the spread over a defined period.
1. Moving Average (SMA):
The simple moving average of the spread (mu_S) over a specified period P is calculated as:
mu_S = (1/P) * sum(S_i from i=1 to P)
Where S_i represents the spread at time i, and P is the lookback period (default is 200 bars). The moving average provides a baseline for the normal spread behavior.
2. Standard Deviation:
The standard deviation (sigma_S) of the spread is calculated to measure the volatility of the spread:
sigma_S = sqrt((1/P) * sum((S_i - mu_S)^2 from i=1 to P))
3. Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands:
The upper and lower Bollinger Bands are derived by adding and subtracting a multiple of the standard deviation from the moving average. The number of standard deviations is determined by a user-defined parameter k (default is 2.618).
- Upper Band:
Upper Band = mu_S + (k * sigma_S)
- Lower Band:
Lower Band = mu_S - (k * sigma_S)
These bands provide a dynamic range within which the spread typically fluctuates. When the spread moves outside of these bands, it is considered overbought or oversold, potentially offering trading opportunities.
Local view
🔶 Entry Conditions:
- Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become oversold and is likely to revert upward.
Spread < Lower Band
- Short Entry: A short position is triggered when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become overbought and is likely to revert downward.
Spread > Upper Band
🔶 Risk Management and Profit-Taking:
The strategy incorporates multi-step take profits to lock in gains as the trade moves in favor. The position is gradually reduced at predefined profit levels, reducing risk while allowing part of the trade to continue running if the price keeps moving favorably.
Additionally, the strategy uses a hold period exit mechanism. If the trade does not hit any of the take-profit levels within a certain number of bars, the position is closed automatically to avoid excessive exposure to market risks.
█ Trade Direction
The trade direction is based on deviations of the spread from its historical norm:
- Long Trade: The strategy enters a long position when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling an oversold condition where the spread is expected to narrow.
- Short Trade: The strategy enters a short position when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition where the spread is expected to widen.
These entries rely on the assumption of mean reversion, where extreme deviations from the average spread are likely to revert over time.
█ Usage
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on price inefficiencies between Bitcoin futures and spot markets. It’s especially useful in volatile markets where large deviations between futures and spot prices occur.
- Market Conditions: This strategy is most effective in correlated markets, like CME futures and spot Bitcoin. Traders can adjust the Bollinger Bands period and standard deviation multiplier to suit different volatility regimes.
- Backtesting: Before deployment, backtesting the strategy across different market conditions and timeframes is recommended to ensure robustness. Adjust the take-profit steps and hold periods to reflect the trader’s risk tolerance and market behavior.
█ Default Settings
The default settings provide a balanced approach to spread trading using Bollinger Bands but can be adjusted depending on market conditions or personal trading preferences.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Period (200 bars):
This defines the number of bars used to calculate the moving average and standard deviation for the Bollinger Bands. A longer period smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on larger, more significant trends. Adjusting the period affects the responsiveness of the strategy:
- Shorter periods (e.g., 100 bars): Makes the strategy more reactive to short-term market fluctuations, potentially generating more signals but increasing the risk of false positives.
- Longer periods (e.g., 300 bars): Focuses on longer-term trends, reducing the frequency of trades and focusing only on significant deviations.
🔶 Standard Deviation Multiplier (2.618):
The multiplier controls how wide the Bollinger Bands are around the moving average. By default, the bands are set at 2.618 standard deviations away from the average, ensuring that only significant deviations trigger trades.
- Higher multipliers (e.g., 3.0): Require a more extreme deviation to trigger trades, reducing trade frequency but potentially increasing the accuracy of signals.
- Lower multipliers (e.g., 2.0): Make the bands narrower, increasing the number of trade signals but potentially decreasing their reliability.
🔶 Take-Profit Levels:
The strategy has four take-profit levels to gradually lock in profits:
- Level 1 (3%): 25% of the position is closed at a 3% profit.
- Level 2 (8%): 20% of the position is closed at an 8% profit.
- Level 3 (14%): 15% of the position is closed at a 14% profit.
- Level 4 (21%): 10% of the position is closed at a 21% profit.
Adjusting these take-profit levels affects how quickly profits are realized:
- Lower take-profit levels: Capture gains more quickly, reducing risk but potentially cutting off larger profits.
- Higher take-profit levels: Let trades run longer, aiming for bigger gains but increasing the risk of price reversals before profits are locked in.
🔶 Hold Days (20 bars):
The strategy automatically closes the position after 20 bars if none of the take-profit levels are hit. This feature prevents trades from being held indefinitely, especially if market conditions are stagnant. Adjusting this:
- Shorter hold periods: Reduce the duration of exposure, minimizing risks from market changes but potentially closing trades too early.
- Longer hold periods: Allow trades to stay open longer, increasing the chance for mean reversion but also increasing exposure to unfavorable market conditions.
By understanding how these default settings affect the strategy’s performance, traders can optimize the Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy to their preferences, adapting it to different market environments and risk tolerances.
MVRV Z Score and MVRV Free Float Z-ScoreIMPORTANT: This script needs as much historic data as possible. Please run it on INDEX:BTCUSD , BNC:BLX or another chart of sufficient length.
MVRV
The MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value Ratio) simply divides bitcoins market cap by bitcoins realized market cap. This was previously impossible on Tradingview but has now been made possible thanks to Coinmetrics providing us with the realized market cap data.
In the free float version, the free float market cap is used instead of the regular market cap.
Z-Score
The MVRV Z-score divides the difference between Market cap and realized market cap by the historic standard deviation of the market cap.
Historically, this has been insanely accurate at detecting bitcoin tops and bottoms:
A Z-Score above 7 means bitcoin is vastly overpriced and at a local top.
A Z-Score below 0.1 means bitcoin is underpriced and at a local bottom.
In the free float version, the free float market cap is used instead of the regular market cap.
The Z-Score, also known as the standard score is hugely popular in a wide range of mathematical and statistical fields and is usually used to measure the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured.
Credits
MVRV Z Score initially created by aweandwonder
MVRV initially created by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell
