[blackcat] L3 Improved Dual Ehlers BPF for Volatility DetectionOVERVIEW
This script implements an advanced L3 Improved Dual Ehlers Bandpass Filter (BPF) for volatility detection, combining both L1 and L2 calculation methods to create a comprehensive trading signal. The script leverages John Ehlers' sophisticated digital signal processing techniques to identify market cycles and extract meaningful trading signals from price action. By combining multiple cycle detection methods and filtering approaches, it provides traders with a powerful tool for identifying trend changes, momentum shifts, and potential reversal points across various market conditions and timeframes. The L3 approach uniquely combines the outputs of both L1 (01 range) and L2 (-11 range) methods, creating a signal that ranges from -1~2 and provides enhanced sensitivity to market dynamics.
FEATURES
🔄 Dual Calculation Methods: Choose between L1 (01 range), L2 (-11 range), or combine both for L3 signal (-1~2 range) to match your trading style
📊 Multiple Cycle Detection: Seven different dominant cycle calculation methods including HoDyDC (Hilbert Transform Dominant Cycle), PhAcDC (Phase Accumulation Dominant Cycle), DuDiDC (Duane Dominant Cycle), CycPer (Cycle Period), BPZC (Bandpass Zero Crossing), AutoPer (Autocorrelation Period), and DFTDC (Discrete Fourier Transform Dominant Cycle)
🎛️ Flexible Mixing Options: Six sophisticated mixing methods including weighted averaging, simple sum, difference extraction, dominant-only, subdominant-only, and adaptive mixing that adjusts based on signal strength
🌊 Bandpass Filtering: Precise bandwidth control for both dominant and subdominant filters, allowing fine-tuning of frequency response characteristics
📈 Advanced Divergence Detection: Robust algorithm for identifying bullish and bearish divergences with customizable lookback periods and range constraints
🎨 Comprehensive Visualization: Extensive customization options for all signals, colors, plot styles, and display elements
🔔 Comprehensive Alert System: Built-in alerts for divergence signals, zero line crosses, and various market conditions
📊 Real-time Cycle Information: Optional display of dominant and subdominant cycle periods for educational purposes
🔄 Adaptive Signal Processing: Dynamic adjustment of parameters based on market conditions and volatility
🎯 Multiple Signal Outputs: Simultaneous generation of L1, L2, and L3 signals for different trading strategies
HOW TO USE
Select Calculation Method: Choose between "l1" (01 range), "l2" (-11 range), or "both" (L3, -1~2 range) in the Calculation Method settings based on your preferred signal characteristics
Configure Cycle Detection: Select your preferred Dominant Cycle Method from the seven available options and adjust the Cycle Part parameter (0.1-0.9) to fine-tune cycle sensitivity
Set Subdominant Parameters: Configure the subdominant cycle either as a ratio of the dominant cycle or as a fixed period, depending on your analysis approach
Adjust Filter Bandwidth: Fine-tune the bandwidth settings for both dominant and subdominant filters (0.1-1.0) to control the frequency response and signal smoothing
Choose Mixing Method: Select how to combine the filters - weighted averaging for balance, sum for maximum sensitivity, difference for trend isolation, or adaptive mixing for dynamic response
Configure Smoothing: Select from SMA, EMA, or HMA smoothing methods with adjustable length (1-20 bars) to reduce noise in the final signal
Customize Visualization: Enable/disable individual plots, divergence detection, zero line, fill areas, and customize all colors to match your chart preferences
Set Divergence Parameters: Configure lookback ranges (5-60 bars) for divergence detection to match your trading timeframe and style
Monitor Signals: Watch for crosses above/below zero line and divergence patterns, paying attention to signal strength and consistency
Set Up Alerts: Configure alerts for divergence signals, zero line crosses, and other market conditions to stay informed of trading opportunities
LIMITATIONS
The script requires the dc_ta library from blackcat1402 for several advanced cycle calculation methods (HoDyDC, PhAcDC, DuDiDC, CycPer, BPZC, AutoPer, DFTDC)
L1 method operates in 01 range while L2 method uses -11 range, requiring different interpretation approaches
Combined L3 signal ranges from -1~2 when both methods are selected, creating unique signal characteristics that traders must adapt to
Divergence detection accuracy depends on proper lookback period settings and market volatility conditions
Performance may be impacted with very long lookback ranges (>60 bars) or when multiple plots are simultaneously enabled
The script is designed for non-overlay use and may not display correctly on certain chart types or with conflicting indicators
Adaptive mixing method requires careful threshold tuning to avoid excessive signal fluctuation
Cycle detection algorithms may produce unreliable results during low volatility or highly choppy market conditions
The script assumes regular price data and may not perform optimally with irregular or gapped price sequences
NOTES
The script implements advanced mathematical calculations including bandpass filters, Hilbert transforms, and various cycle detection algorithms developed by John Ehlers
For optimal results, experiment with different cycle detection methods and bandwidth settings across various market conditions and timeframes
The adaptive mixing method automatically adjusts weights based on signal strength, providing dynamic response to changing market conditions
Divergence detection works best when the "Plot Divergence" option is enabled and when combined with other technical analysis tools
Zero line crosses can indicate potential trend changes or momentum shifts, especially when confirmed by volume or other indicators
The script includes commented code for cycle information display that can be enabled if you want to monitor cycle periods in real-time
Different calculation methods may perform better in different market environments - L1 tends to be smoother while L2 is more sensitive
The subdominant cycle helps filter out noise and provides additional confirmation for signals generated by the dominant cycle
Bandwidth settings control the filter's frequency response - lower values provide more smoothing while higher values increase sensitivity
Mixing methods offer different approaches to combining signals - weighted averaging is generally most reliable for most trading applications
THANKS
Special thanks to John Ehlers for his pioneering work in cycle analysis and digital signal processing for financial markets. This script implements and significantly improves upon his bandpass filter methodology, incorporating multiple advanced techniques from his extensive body of work. Also heartfelt thanks to blackcat1402 for the dc_ta library that provides essential cycle calculation methods and for maintaining such a valuable resource for the Pine Script community. Additional appreciation to the TradingView platform for providing the tools and environment that make sophisticated technical analysis accessible to traders worldwide. This script represents a collaborative effort in advancing the field of algorithmic trading and technical analysis.
Search in scripts for "accumulation"
US Liquidity-Weighted Business Cycle📈 BTC Liquidity-Weighted Business Cycle
This indicator models the Bitcoin macro cycle by comparing its logarithmic price against a log-transformed liquidity proxy (e.g., US M2 Money Supply). It helps visualize cyclical tops and bottoms by measuring the relative expansion of Bitcoin price versus fiat liquidity.
🧠 How It Works:
Transforms both BTC and M2 using natural logarithms.
Computes a liquidity ratio: log(BTC) – log(M2) (i.e., log(BTC/M2)).
Runs MACD on this ratio to extract business cycle momentum.
Plots:
🔴 Histogram bars showing cyclical growth or contraction.
🟢 Top line to track the relative price-to-liquidity trend.
🔴 Cycle peak markers to flag historical market tops.
⚙️ Inputs:
Adjustable MACD lengths
Toggle for liquidity trend line overlay
🔍 Use Cases:
Identifying macro cycle tops and bottoms
Timing long-term Bitcoin accumulation or de-risking
Confirming global liquidity's influence on BTC price movement
Note: This version currently uses US M2 (FRED:M2SL) as the liquidity base. You can easily expand it with other global M2 sources or adjust the weights.
Advanced Trend Momentum [Alpha Extract]The Advanced Trend Momentum indicator provides traders with deep insights into market dynamics by combining exponential moving average analysis with RSI momentum assessment and dynamic support/resistance detection. This sophisticated multi-dimensional tool helps identify trend changes, momentum divergences, and key structural levels, offering actionable buy and sell signals based on trend strength and momentum convergence.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes market data through multiple analytical methods:
Dual EMA Analysis: Calculates fast and slow exponential moving averages with dynamic trend direction assessment and ATR-normalized strength measurement.
RSI Momentum Engine: Implements RSI-based momentum analysis with enhanced overbought/oversold detection and momentum velocity calculations.
Pivot-Based Structure: Identifies and tracks dynamic support and resistance levels using pivot point analysis with configurable level management.
Signal Integration: Combines trend direction, momentum characteristics, and structural proximity to generate high-probability trading signals.
Formula:
Fast EMA = EMA(Close, Fast Length)
Slow EMA = EMA(Close, Slow Length)
Trend Direction = Fast EMA > Slow EMA ? 1 : -1
Trend Strength = |Fast EMA - Slow EMA| / ATR(Period) × 100
RSI Momentum = RSI(Close, RSI Length)
Momentum Value = Change(Close, 5) / ATR(10) × 100
Pivot Support/Resistance = Dynamic pivot arrays with configurable lookback periods
Bullish Signal = Trend Change + Momentum Confirmation + Strength > 1%
Bearish Signal = Trend Change + Momentum Confirmation + Strength > 1%
🔶 DETAILS
Visual Features:
Trend EMAs: Fast and slow exponential moving averages with dynamic color coding (bullish/bearish)
Enhanced RSI: RSI oscillator with color-coded zones, gradient fills, and reference bands at overbought/oversold levels
Trend Fill: Dynamic gradient between EMAs indicating trend strength and direction
Support/Resistance Lines: Horizontal levels extending from pivot-based calculations with configurable maximum levels
Momentum Candles: Color-coded candlestick overlay reflecting combined trend and momentum conditions
Divergence Markers: Diamond-shaped signals highlighting bullish and bearish momentum divergences
Analysis Table: Real-time summary of trend direction, strength percentage, RSI value, and momentum reading
Interpretation:
Trend Direction: Bullish when Fast EMA crosses above Slow EMA with strength confirmation
Trend Strength > 1%: Strong trending conditions with institutional participation
RSI > 70: Overbought conditions, potential selling opportunity
RSI < 30: Oversold conditions, potential buying opportunity
Momentum Divergence: Price and momentum moving opposite directions signal potential reversals
Support/Resistance Proximity: Dynamic levels provide optimal entry/exit zones
Combined Signals: Trend changes with momentum confirmation generate high-probability opportunities
🔶 EXAMPLES
Trend Confirmation: Fast EMA crossing above Slow EMA with trend strength exceeding 1% and positive momentum confirms strong bullish conditions.
Example: During institutional accumulation phases, EMA crossovers with momentum confirmation have historically preceded significant upward moves, providing optimal long entry points.
15min
4H
Momentum Divergence Detection: RSI reaching overbought levels while momentum decreases despite rising prices signals potential trend exhaustion.
Example: Bearish divergence signals appearing at resistance levels have marked major market tops, allowing traders to secure profits before corrections.
Support/Resistance Integration: Dynamic pivot-based levels combined with trend and momentum signals create high-probability trading zones.
Example: Bullish trend changes occurring near established support levels offer optimal risk-reward entries with clearly defined stop-loss levels.
Multi-Dimensional Confirmation: The indicator's combination of trend, momentum, and structural analysis provides comprehensive market validation.
Example: When trend direction aligns with momentum characteristics near key structural levels, the confluence creates institutional-grade trading opportunities with enhanced probability of success.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Trend Analysis: Fast EMA Length (default: 12), Slow EMA Length (default: 26), Trend Strength Period (default: 14)
Support & Resistance: Pivot Length for level detection (default: 10), Maximum S/R Levels displayed (default: 3), Toggle S/R visibility
Momentum Settings: RSI Length (default: 14), Oversold Level (default: 30), Overbought Level (default: 70)
Visual Configuration: Color schemes for bullish/bearish/neutral conditions, transparency settings for fills, momentum candle overlay toggle
Display Options: Analysis table visibility, divergence marker size, alert system configuration
The Advanced Trend Momentum indicator provides traders with comprehensive insights into market dynamics through its sophisticated integration of trend analysis, momentum assessment, and structural level detection. By combining multiple analytical dimensions into a unified framework, this tool helps identify high-probability opportunities while filtering out market noise through its multi-confirmation approach, enabling traders to make informed decisions across various market cycles and timeframes.
VSA Signals [odnac]This indicator applies Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) concepts to highlight important supply and demand events directly on the chart. It automatically detects common VSA patterns using price spread, relative volume, and candle structure, with optional trend filtering for higher accuracy.
Features:
Stopping Volume (SV): Signals potential end of a downtrend when heavy buying appears.
Buying Climax (BC): Indicates exhaustion of an uptrend with heavy volume near the top.
No Supply (NS): Weak selling pressure, often a bullish sign in an uptrend.
No Demand (ND): Weak buying interest, often a bearish sign in a downtrend.
Test: Low-volume test bar probing for supply.
Up-thrust (UT): Failed breakout with long upper wick, often a bearish trap.
Shakeout: Bear trap with high-volume wide down bar closing low.
Demand Absorption (DA): Demand absorbing heavy selling pressure.
Supply Absorption (SA): Supply absorbing heavy buying pressure.
Additional Options:
Background highlights for detected signals.
Configurable moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA) as a trend filter.
Adjustable multipliers for volume and spread sensitivity.
Legend table for quick reference of signals and meanings.
Alerts available for all signals.
This tool is designed to help traders spot professional accumulation and distribution activity and to improve trade timing by recognizing supply/demand imbalances in the market.
EMA Oracle and RSIEMA Oracle
- “See the market’s structure through the eyes of exponential wisdom.”
combines classic EMA stacks with Pi-based logic to reveal high-probability buy/sell zones and trend bias across timeframes
Multi-EMA Trend & Pi Signal Indicator
This advanced indicator combines classic trend analysis with Pi-based signal logic to help traders identify optimal entry and exit zones across multiple timeframes.
Core Features
EMA Trend Structure: Displays EMAs 9, 13, 20, 50, and 200 to visualize short-term and long-term trend orientation. Bullish momentum is indicated when shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones.
Pi-Based Signal Logic: Inspired by the Pi Indicator, it includes EMA111 and EMA700 (350×2) on the daily chart:
Buy Zone: When price is trading below EMA111, it signals potential accumulation for spot or low-leverage position trades.
Sell Zone: When price is above EMA700, it suggests potential distribution or exit zones.
Trend Cross Alerts: Detects EMA crossovers and crossunders to highlight shifts in market structure and generate buy/sell signals.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Evaluates trend direction across selected timeframes (e.g., 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, 1D), offering a broader market perspective.
RSI Integration: Combines Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings with EMA positioning to assess momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
Trend Table Display: A dynamic table summarizes the asset’s trend status per timeframe, showing:
RSI values
EMA alignment
Overall trend bias (bullish, bearish, neutral)
Range Percent Histogram📌 Range Percent Histogram – Indicator Description
The Range Percent Histogram is a custom indicator that behaves like a traditional volume histogram, but instead of showing traded volume it displays the percentage range of each candle.
In other words, the height of each bar represents how much the price moved (in percentage terms) within that candle, from its low to its high.
🔧 What it shows
The indicator has two main components:
Component Description
Histogram Bars Columns plotted in red or green depending on the candle direction (green = bullish candle, red = bearish). The height of each bar = (high - low) / low * 100. That means a candle that moved, for example, 1 % from its lowest point to its highest point will show a bar with 1 % height.
Moving Average (optional) A 20-period Simple Moving Average applied directly to the bar values. It can be turned ON/OFF via a checkbox and helps you detect whether current range activity is above or below the average range of the past candles.
⚙️ How it works
Every time a new candle closes, the indicator calculates its range and converts it into a percentage.
This value is drawn as a column under the chart.
If the closing price is above the opening price → the bar is green (bullish range).
If the closing price is below the opening price → the bar is red (bearish range).
When the Show Moving Average option is enabled, a smooth line is plotted on top of the histogram representing the average percentage range of the last 20 candles.
📈 How to use it
This indicator is very helpful for detecting moments of range expansion or contraction.
One powerful way to use it is similar to a volume exhaustion / low-volume pattern:
Situation Interpretation
Consecutive bars with very low height Price is in a period of low volatility → possible accumulation or "pause" phase.
A sudden large bar after a series of small ones Indicates a strong pickup in volatility → often marks the start of a new impulse in the direction of the breakout.
Calm before the StormCalm before the Storm - Bollinger Bands Volatility Indicator
What It Does
This indicator identifies and highlights periods of extremely low market volatility by analyzing Bollinger Bands distance. It uses percentile-based analysis to find the "quietest" market periods and highlights them with a gradient background, operating on the premise that low volatility periods often precede significant price movements.
How It Works
Volatility Measurement: Calculates the distance between Bollinger Bands upper and lower boundaries
Percentile Analysis: Analyzes the lowest X% of volatility periods over a configurable lookback period (default: lowest 40% over 200 bars)
Visual Highlighting: Uses gradient opacity to show volatility levels - the lower the volatility, the more opaque the background highlighting
Adaptive Threshold: Automatically calculates what constitutes "low volatility" based on recent market conditions
Who Should Use It
Primary Users:
Breakout Traders: Looking for consolidation periods that may precede significant moves
Options Traders: Seeking low implied volatility periods before volatility expansion
Swing Traders: Identifying accumulation/distribution phases before trend continuation or reversal
Range Traders: Spotting tight trading ranges for mean reversion strategies
Trading Styles:
Volatility-based strategies
Breakout and momentum trading
Options strategies (volatility plays)
Market timing approaches
When to Use It
Market Conditions:
Consolidation Phases: When price is moving sideways with decreasing volatility
Pre-Announcement Periods: Before earnings, economic data, or major events
Market Transitions: During shifts between trending and ranging markets
Low Volume Periods: When institutional participation is reduced
Strategic Applications:
Entry Timing: Wait for volatility compression before positioning for breakouts
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes during highlighted periods (anticipating volatility expansion)
Options Strategy: Sell premium during low volatility, buy during expansion
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Combine with higher timeframe trends for confluence
Key Benefits
Objective Volatility Measurement: Removes subjectivity from identifying "quiet" markets
Adaptive Analysis: Automatically adjusts to current market conditions
Visual Clarity: Easy-to-interpret gradient highlighting
Customizable Sensitivity: Adjustable percentile thresholds for different trading styles
Best Used In Combination With:
Trend analysis tools
Support/resistance levels
Volume indicators
Momentum oscillators
This indicator is particularly valuable for traders who understand that periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility, allowing them to position ahead of potential significant price movements.
Institution Accumulation/DistributionLeveraging the Williams%R oscillator, the script has been optimized to pick out key turning point in the market specifically at Resistance (Overbought) or Support (Oversold)
The algo has been programmed to print both buy and sell alerts at extremes/when conditions flip eg a long position will be closed simultaneously opening a short position above resistance.
Best used as a scalping tool targeting 30m and below works well with currency pairs
Meta-LR ForecastThis indicator builds a forward-looking projection from the current bar by combining twelve time-compressed “mini forecasts.” Each forecast is a linear-regression-based outlook whose contribution is adaptively scaled by trend strength (via ADX) and normalized to each timeframe’s own volatility (via that timeframe’s ATR). The result is a 12-segment polyline that starts at the current price and extends one bar at a time into the future (1× through 12× the chart’s timeframe). Alongside the plotted path, the script computes two summary measures:
* Per-TF Bias% — a directional efficiency × R² score for each micro-forecast, expressed as a percent.
* Meta Bias% — the same score, but applied to the final, accumulated 12-step path. It summarizes how coherent and directional the combined projection is.
This tool is an indicator, not a strategy. It does not place orders. Nothing here is trade advice; it is a visual, quantitative framework to help you assess directional bias and trend context across a ladder of timeframe multiples.
The core engine fits a simple least-squares line on a normalized price series for each small forecast horizon and extrapolates one bar forward. That “trend” forecast is paired with its mirror, an “anti-trend” forecast, constructed around the current normalized price. The model then blends between these two wings according to current trend strength as measured by ADX.
ADX is transformed into a weight (w) in using an adaptive band centered on the rolling mean (μ) with width derived from the standard deviation (σ) of ADX over a configurable lookback. When ADX is deeply below the lower band, the weight approaches -1, favoring anti-trend behavior. Inside the flat band, the weight is near zero, producing neutral behavior. Clearly above the upper band, the weight approaches +1, favoring a trend-following stance. The transitions between these regions are linear so the regime shift is smooth rather than abrupt.
You can shape how quickly the model commits to either wing using two exponents. One exponent controls how aggressively positive weights lean into the trend forecast; the other controls how aggressively negative weights lean into the anti-trend forecast. Raising these exponents makes the response more gradual; lowering them makes the shift more decisive. An optional switch can force full anti-trend behavior when ADX registers a deep-low condition far below the lower tail, if you prefer a categorical stance in very flat markets.
A key design choice is volatility normalization. Every micro-forecast is computed in ATR units of its own timeframe. The script fetches that timeframe’s ATR inside each security call and converts normalized outputs back to price with that exact ATR. This avoids scaling higher-timeframe effects by the chart ATR or by square-root time approximations. Using “ATR-true” for each timeframe keeps the cross-timeframe accumulation consistent and dimensionally correct.
Bias% is defined as directional efficiency multiplied by R², expressed as a percent. Directional efficiency captures how much net progress occurred relative to the total path length; R² captures how well the path aligns with a straight line. If price meanders without net progress, efficiency drops; if the variation is well-explained by a line, R² rises. Multiplying the two penalizes choppy, low-signal paths and rewards sustained, coherent motion.
The forward path is built by converting each per-timeframe Bias% into a small ATR-sized delta, then cumulatively adding those deltas to form a 12-step projection. This produces a polyline anchored at the current close and stepping forward one bar per timeframe multiple. Segment color flips by slope, allowing a quick read of the path’s direction and inflection.
Inputs you can tune include:
* Max Regression Length. Upper bound for each micro-forecast’s regression window. Larger values smooth the trend estimate at the cost of responsiveness; smaller values react faster but can add noise.
* Price Source. The price series analyzed (for example, close or typical price).
* ADX Length. Period used for the DMI/ADX calculation.
* ATR Length (normalization). Window used for ATR; this is applied per timeframe inside each security call.
* Band Lookback (for μ, σ). Lookback used to compute the adaptive ADX band statistics. Larger values stabilize the band; smaller values react more quickly.
* Flat half-width (σ). Width of the neutral band on both sides of μ. Wider flats spend more time neutral; narrower flats switch regimes more readily.
* Tail width beyond flat (σ). Distance from the flat band edge to the extreme trend/anti-trend zone. Larger tails create a longer ramp; smaller tails reach extremes sooner.
* Polyline Width. Visual thickness of the plotted segments.
* Negative Wing Aggression (anti-trend). Exponent shaping for negative weights; higher values soften the tilt into mean reversion.
* Positive Wing Aggression (trend). Exponent shaping for positive weights; lower values make trend commitment stronger and sooner.
* Force FULL Anti-Trend at Deep-Low ADX. Optional hard switch for extremely low ADX conditions.
On the chart you will see:
* A 12-segment forward polyline starting from the current close to bar\_index + 1 … +12, with green segments for up-steps and red for down-steps.
* A small label at the latest bar showing Meta Bias% when available, or “n/a” when insufficient data exists.
Interpreting the readouts:
* Trend-following contexts are characterized by ADX above the adaptive upper band, pushing w toward +1. The blended forecast leans toward the regression extrapolation. A strongly positive Meta Bias% in this environment suggests directional alignment across the ladder of timeframes.
* Mean-reversion contexts occur when ADX is well below the lower tail, pushing w toward -1 (or forcing anti-trend if enabled). After a sharp advance, a negative Meta Bias% may indicate the model projects pullback tendencies.
* Neutral contexts occur when ADX sits inside the flat band; w is near zero, the blended forecast remains close to current price, and Meta Bias% tends to hover near zero.
These are analytical cues, not rules. Always corroborate with your broader process, including market structure, time-of-day behavior, liquidity conditions, and risk limits.
Practical usage patterns include:
* Momentum confirmation. Combine a rising Meta Bias% with higher-timeframe structure (such as higher highs and higher lows) to validate continuation setups. Treat the 12th step’s distance as a coarse sense of potential room rather than as a target.
* Fade filtering. If you prefer fading extremes, require ADX to be near or below the lower ramp before acting on counter-moves, and avoid fades when ADX is decisively above the upper band.
* Position planning. Because per-step deltas are ATR-scaled, the path’s vertical extent can be mentally mapped to typical noise for the instrument, informing stop distance choices. The script itself does not compute orders or size.
* Multi-timeframe alignment. Each step corresponds to a clean multiple of your chart timeframe, so the polyline visualizes how successively larger windows bias price, all referenced to the current bar.
House-rules and repainting disclosures:
* Indicator, not strategy. The script does not execute, manage, or suggest orders. It displays computed paths and bias scores for analysis only.
* No performance claims. Past behavior of any measure, including Meta Bias%, does not guarantee future results. There are no assurances of profitability.
* Higher-timeframe updates. Values obtained via security for higher-timeframe series can update intrabar until the higher-timeframe bar closes. The forward path and Meta Bias% may change during formation of a higher-timeframe candle. If you need confirmed higher-timeframe inputs, consider reading the prior higher-timeframe value or acting only after the higher-timeframe close.
* Data sufficiency. The model requires enough history to compute ATR, ADX statistics, and regression windows. On very young charts or illiquid symbols, parts of the readout can be unavailable until sufficient data accumulates.
* Volatility regimes. ATR normalization helps compare across timeframes, but unusual volatility regimes can make the path look deceptively flat or exaggerated. Judge the vertical scale relative to your instrument’s typical ATR.
Tuning tips:
* Stability versus responsiveness. Increase Max Regression Length to steady the micro-forecasts but accept slower response. If you lower it, consider slightly increasing Band Lookback so regime boundaries are not too jumpy.
* Regime bands. Widen the flat half-width to spend more time neutral, which can reduce over-trading tendencies in chop. Shrink the tail width if you want the model to commit to extremes sooner, at the cost of more false swings.
* Wing shaping. If anti-trend behavior feels too abrupt at low ADX, raise the negative wing exponent. If you want trend bias to kick in more decisively at high ADX, lower the positive wing exponent. Small changes have large effects.
* Forced anti-trend. Enable the deep-low option only if you explicitly want a categorical “markets are flat, fade moves” policy. Many users prefer leaving it off to keep regime decisions continuous.
Troubleshooting:
* Nothing plots or the label shows “n/a.” Ensure the chart has enough history for the ADX band statistics, ATR, and the regression windows. Exotic or illiquid symbols with missing data may starve the higher-timeframe computations. Try a more liquid market or a higher timeframe.
* Path flickers or shifts during the bar. This is expected when any higher-timeframe input is still forming. Wait for the higher-timeframe close for fully confirmed behavior, or modify the code to read prior values from the higher timeframe.
* Polyline looks too flat or too steep. Check the chart’s vertical scale and recent ATR regime. Adjust Max Regression Length, the wing exponents, or the band widths to suit the instrument.
Integration ideas for manual workflows:
* Confluence checklist. Use Meta Bias% as one of several independent checks, alongside structure, session context, and event risk. Act only when multiple cues align.
* Stop and target thinking. Because deltas are ATR-scaled at each timeframe, benchmark your proposed stops and targets against the forward steps’ magnitude. Stops that are much tighter than the prevailing ATR often sit inside normal noise.
* Session context. Consider session hours and microstructure. The same ADX value can imply different tradeability in different sessions, particularly in index futures and FX.
This indicator deliberately avoids:
* Fixed thresholds for buy or sell decisions. Markets vary and fixed numbers invite overfitting. Decide what constitutes “high enough” Meta Bias% for your market and timeframe.
* Automatic risk sizing. Proper sizing depends on account parameters, instrument specifications, and personal risk tolerance. Keep that decision in your risk plan, not in a visual bias tool.
* Claims of edge. These measures summarize path geometry and trend context; they do not ensure a tradable edge on their own.
Summary of how to think about the output:
* The script builds a 12-step forward path by stacking linear-regression micro-forecasts across increasing multiples of the chart timeframe.
* Each micro-forecast is blended between trend and anti-trend using an adaptive ADX band with separate aggression controls for positive and negative regimes.
* All computations are done in ATR-true units for each timeframe before reconversion to price, ensuring dimensional consistency when accumulating steps.
* Bias% (per-timeframe and Meta) condenses directional efficiency and trend fidelity into a compact score.
* The output is designed to serve as an analytical overlay that helps assess whether conditions look trend-friendly, fade-friendly, or neutral, while acknowledging higher-timeframe update behavior and avoiding prescriptive trade rules.
Use this tool as one component within a disciplined process that includes independent confirmation, event awareness, and robust risk management.
Smart Money Breakout Moving Strength [GILDEX]🟠OVERVIEW
This script draws breakout detection zones called “Smart Money Breakout Channels” based on volatility-normalized price movement and visualizes them as dynamic boxes with volume overlays. It identifies temporary accumulation or distribution ranges using a custom normalized volatility metric and tracks when price breaks out of those zones—either upward or downward. Each channel represents a structured range where smart money may be active, helping traders anticipate key breakouts with added context from volume delta, up/down volume, and a visual gradient gauge for momentum bias.
🟠CONCEPTS
The script calculates normalized price volatility by measuring the standard deviation of price mapped to a scale using the highest and lowest prices over a set lookback period. When normalized volatility reaches a local low and flips upward, a boxed channel is drawn between the highest and lowest prices in that zone. These boxes persist until price breaks out, either with a strong candle close (configurable) or by touching the boundary. Volume analysis enhances interpretation by rendering delta bars inside the box, showing volume distribution during the channel. Additionally, a real-time visual “gauge” shows where volume delta sits within the channel range, helping users spot pressure imbalances.
Smart Money Breakout Moving Strength [GILDEX]🟠OVERVIEW
This script draws breakout detection zones called “Smart Money Breakout Channels” based on volatility-normalized price movement and visualizes them as dynamic boxes with volume overlays. It identifies temporary accumulation or distribution ranges using a custom normalized volatility metric and tracks when price breaks out of those zones—either upward or downward. Each channel represents a structured range where smart money may be active, helping traders anticipate key breakouts with added context from volume delta, up/down volume, and a visual gradient gauge for momentum bias.
🟠CONCEPTS
The script calculates normalized price volatility by measuring the standard deviation of price mapped to a scale using the highest and lowest prices over a set lookback period. When normalized volatility reaches a local low and flips upward, a boxed channel is drawn between the highest and lowest prices in that zone. These boxes persist until price breaks out, either with a strong candle close (configurable) or by touching the boundary. Volume analysis enhances interpretation by rendering delta bars inside the box, showing volume distribution during the channel. Additionally, a real-time visual “gauge” shows where volume delta sits within the channel range, helping users spot pressure imbalances.
Approx STH Unrealized Profit [Relative %]This indicator estimates the unrealized profit or loss of short-term holders (STH) without requiring on-chain data. Instead of using actual STH Realized Price (average purchase price), it employs a 155-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to approximate the behavior of "recent buyers."
How It Works
The indicator calculates the percentage deviation between the current price and the 155-day SMA using the formula:
(Current Price - 155 SMA) / 155 SMA * 100%.
Positive values indicate profit, while negative values show loss. Key threshold levels are set at +50% (overbought) and -30% (oversold).
Trading Applications
Profit > 50% - STH are experiencing significant profits, suggesting potential correction. Consider taking partial profits.
0% < Profit < 50% - Moderate profits indicate the trend may continue. Maintain positions.
Profit ≈ 0% - Price is near STH's average entry point, showing market indecision.
-30% < Profit < 0% - STH are at a loss, potentially signaling accumulation opportunities.
Profit < -30% - Extreme oversold conditions may present buying opportunities.
Limitations
SMA only approximates STH behavior.
May produce false signals during sideways markets.
SMA lag can be noticeable in strong trending markets.
Recommendation
For improved accuracy, combine this indicator with trend-following tools (200 EMA, Volume analysis) and other technical indicators. It serves best as a supplementary tool for identifying overbought/oversold market conditions within your trading strategy.
Intraday Volume Pulse GSK-VIZAG-AP-INDIAIntraday Volume Pulse Indicator
Overview
This indicator is designed to track and visualize intraday volume dynamics during a user-defined trading session. It calculates and displays key volume metrics such as buy volume, sell volume, cumulative delta (difference between buy and sell volumes), and total volume. The data is presented in a customizable table overlay on the chart, making it easy to monitor volume pulses throughout the session. This can help traders identify buying or selling pressure in real-time, particularly useful for intraday strategies.
The indicator resets its calculations at the start of each new day and only accumulates volume data from the specified session start time onward. It uses simple logic to classify volume as buy or sell based on candle direction:
Buy Volume: Assigned to green (up) candles or half of neutral (doji) candles.
Sell Volume: Assigned to red (down) candles or half of neutral (doji) candles.
All calculations are approximate and based on available volume data from the chart. This script does not incorporate external data sources, order flow, or tick-level information—it's purely derived from standard OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) bars.
Key Features
Session Customization: Define the start time of your trading session (e.g., market open) and select from common timezones like Asia/Kolkata, America/New_York, etc.
Volume Metrics:
Buy Volume: Total volume attributed to bullish activity.
Sell Volume: Total volume attributed to bearish activity.
Cumulative Delta: Net difference (Buy - Sell), highlighting overall market bias.
Total Volume: Sum of all volume during the session.
Formatted Display: Volumes are formatted for readability (e.g., in thousands "K", lakhs "L", or crores "Cr" for large numbers).
Color-Coded Table: Uses a patriotic color scheme inspired by general themes (Saffron, White, Green) with dynamic backgrounds based on positive/negative values for quick visual interpretation.
Table Options: Toggle visibility and position (top-right, top-left, etc.) for a clean chart layout.
How to Use
Add to Chart: Apply this indicator to any symbol's chart (works best on intraday timeframes like 1-min, 5-min, or 15-min).
Configure Inputs:
Session Start Hour/Minute: Set to your market's open time (default: 9:15 for Indian markets).
Timezone: Choose the appropriate timezone to align with your trading hours.
Show Table: Enable/disable the metrics table.
Table Position: Place the table where it doesn't obstruct your view.
Interpret the Table:
Monitor for spikes in buy/sell volume or shifts in cumulative delta.
Positive delta (green) suggests buying pressure; negative (red) suggests selling.
Use alongside price action or other indicators for confirmation—e.g., high total volume with positive delta could indicate bullish momentum.
Limitations:
Volume classification is heuristic and not based on actual order flow (e.g., it splits doji volume evenly).
Data accumulation starts from the session time and resets daily; historical backtesting may be limited by the max_bars_back=500 setting.
This is for educational and visualization purposes only—do not use as sole basis for trading decisions.
Calculation Details
Session Filter: Uses timestamp() to define the session start and filters bars with time >= sessionStart.
New Day Detection: Resets volumes on daily changes via ta.change(time("D")).
Volume Assignment:
Buy: Full volume if close > open; half if close == open.
Sell: Full volume if close < open; half if close == open.
Cumulative Metrics: Accumulated only during the session.
Formatting: Custom function f_format() scales large numbers for brevity.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not provide financial advice or signals to buy/sell any security. Always perform your own analysis and consult a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.
© 2025 GSK-VIZAG-AP-INDIA
Swing Point Volume Z-ScoreSWING POINT VOLUME Z-SCORE INDICATOR
A volume analysis tool that identifies statistical volume spikes at swing points with optional higher timeframe confirmation.
This indicator uses Leviathan's method of swing detection. All credit to him for his amazing work (and any mistakes mine). I was also inspired by Trading Riot, who's Capitulation indicator gave me the idea to create this one.
WHAT IT DOES
This indicator combines three analytical approaches:
- Volume Z-score calculation to measure volume significance statistically
- Automatic swing point detection (higher highs, lower lows, etc.)
- Optional higher timeframe volume confirmation
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations current volume is from the average, helping identify when volume activity is genuinely elevated rather than relying on visual assessment.
VISUAL SYSTEM
The indicator uses a color-coded approach for quick assessment:
GREEN - Normal Activity (Z-Score 1.0-2.0)
Above-average volume levels
ORANGE - Elevated Activity (Z-Score 2.0-3.0)
High volume activity that may indicate increased interest
RED - Potential Institutional Activity (Z-Score 3.0+)
Very high volume levels that could suggest significant market participation
HIGHER TIMEFRAME CONFIRMATION
When enabled, the indicator checks volume on a higher timeframe:
- Checkmark symbol indicates HTF volume also shows elevation
- X symbol indicates HTF volume doesn't confirm
- Auto-selects appropriate higher timeframe or allows manual selection
KEY FEATURES
Statistical Approach: Uses Z-score methodology rather than arbitrary volume thresholds
Adaptive Thresholds: Can adjust based on market volatility conditions
Swing Focus: Concentrates analysis on structurally important price levels
Volume Trends: Shows whether volume is accelerating or decelerating
Success Tracking: Monitors how often HTF confirmation proves effective
DISPLAY OPTIONS
Basic Mode: Essential features with clean interface
Advanced Mode: Additional customization and analytics
Label Sizing: Four size options to fit different screen setups
Table Position: Moveable info table with transparency control
Custom Colors: Adjustable for different chart themes
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
May help identify:
- Volume spikes at support/resistance levels
- Potential accumulation or distribution zones
- Breakout confirmation with volume backing
- Areas where larger market participants might be active
Works on all liquid markets and timeframes, though generally more effective on 15-minute charts and higher.
USAGE NOTES
This is an analytical tool that highlights statistically significant volume events. It should be used as part of a broader analysis approach rather than as a standalone trading system.
The indicator works best when combined with:
- Price action analysis
- Support and resistance identification
- Trend analysis
- Proper risk management
Default settings are designed to work well across most instruments, but users can adjust parameters based on their specific needs and trading style.
TECHNICAL DETAILS
Built with Pine Script v5
Compatible with all TradingView subscription levels
Open source code available for review and learning
Works on stocks, forex, crypto, futures, and other liquid instruments
The statistical approach helps remove some subjectivity from volume analysis, though like all technical indicators, it should be used thoughtfully as part of a complete trading plan.
Relative Volatility Mass [SciQua]The ⚖️ Relative Volatility Mass (RVM) is a volatility-based tool inspired by the Relative Volatility Index (RVI) .
While the RVI measures the ratio of upward to downward volatility over a period, RVM takes a different approach:
It sums the standard deviation of price changes over a rolling window, separating upward volatility from downward volatility .
The result is a measure of the total “volatility mass” over a user-defined period, rather than an average or normalized ratio.
This makes RVM particularly useful for identifying sustained high-volatility conditions without being diluted by averaging.
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How It Works
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1. Standard Deviation Calculation
• Computes the standard deviation of the chosen `Source` over a `Standard Deviation Length` (`stdDevLen`).
2. Directional Separation
• Volatility on up bars (`chg > 0`) is treated as upward volatility .
• Volatility on down bars (`chg < 0`) is treated as downward volatility .
3. Rolling Sum
• Over a `Sum Length` (`sumLen`), the upward and downward volatilities are summed separately using `math.sum()`.
4. Relative Volatility Mass
• The two sums are added together to get the total volatility mass for the rolling window.
Formula:
RVM = Σ(σ up) + Σ(σ down)
where σ is the standard deviation over `stdDevLen`.
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Key Features
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Directional Volatility Tracking – Differentiates between volatility during price advances vs. declines.
Rolling Volatility Mass – Shows the total standard deviation accumulation over a given period.
Optional Smoothing – Multiple MA types, including SMA, EMA, SMMA (RMA), WMA, VWMA.
Bollinger Band Overlay – Available when SMA is selected, with adjustable standard deviation multiplier.
Configurable Source – Apply RVM to `close`, `open`, `hl2`, or any custom source.
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Usage
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Trend Confirmation: High RVM values can confirm strong trending conditions.
Breakout Detection: Spikes in RVM often precede or accompany price breakouts.
Volatility Cycle Analysis: Compare periods of contraction and expansion.
RVM is not bounded like the RVI, so absolute values depend on market volatility and chosen parameters.
Consider normalizing or using smoothing for easier visual comparison.
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Example Settings
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Short-term volatility detection: `stdDevLen = 5`, `sumLen = 10`
Medium-term trend volatility: `stdDevLen = 14`, `sumLen = 20`
Enable `SMA + Bollinger Bands` to visualize when volatility is unusually high or low relative to recent history.
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Notes & Limitations
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Not a directional signal by itself — use alongside price structure, volume, or other indicators.
Higher `sumLen` will smooth short-term fluctuations but reduce responsiveness.
Because it sums, not averages, values will scale with both volatility and chosen window size.
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Credits
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Based on the Relative Volatility Index concept by Donald Dorsey (1993).
TradingView
SciQua - Joshua Danford
VRD-5: Volume Reversal Detector (5 Bars)Overview
This Pine Script indicator detects potential trend reversals based on volume patterns over a 5-bar period. It identifies accumulation (bullish) and distribution (bearish) patterns using volume analysis combined with price action.
Key Features
Volume Analysis:
Compares current volume to a 34-period SMA
Identifies strong/weak volume using configurable thresholds
Calculates volume "energy" as a 5-bar average ratio
Pattern Detection:
Bearish Signal: Looks for decreasing volume after a strong volume bar
Bullish Signal: Looks for increasing volume after weak volume bars
Visualization:
Colored volume histogram (bullish/bearish/neutral)
SMA volume line
Labels for detected signals
Customization Options:
Adjustable lookback period (3-10 bars)
Configurable thresholds for volume strength
Strict mode requiring confirming price action
Suggested Improvements
Performance Optimization:
Reduce the max_labels_count (currently 500) to improve performance
Consider using barstate.isconfirmed for more efficient calculations
Enhanced Visualization:
Add arrows on price chart for better visibility
Include a background color highlight for signal periods
Add option to display the energy level as a separate line
Additional Features:
Incorporate RSI or MACD for confirmation
Add multi-timeframe analysis capability
Include a strategy version for backtesting
Code Structure:
Separate the logic into distinct functions for better readability
Add more detailed comments for complex calculations
Consider using varip for real-time updates if needed
User Experience:
Add input options for label text size/position
Include sound options for alerts
Add a toggle for the information table
This indicator provides a solid foundation for volume-based reversal detection that could be further enhanced with these improvements while maintaining its core functionality.
Combined Futures Open Interest [Sam SDF-Solutions]The Combined Futures Open Interest indicator is designed to provide comprehensive analysis of market positioning by aggregating open interest data from the two nearest futures contracts. This dual-contract approach captures the complete picture of market participation, including rollover dynamics between front and back month contracts, offering traders crucial insights into institutional positioning and market sentiment.
Key Features:
Dual-Contract Aggregation: Automatically identifies and combines open interest from the first and second nearest futures contracts (e.g., ES1! + ES2!), providing a complete view of market positioning that single-contract analysis might miss.
Multi-Period Analysis: Tracks open interest changes across multiple timeframes:
1 Day: Immediate market sentiment shifts
1 Week: Short-term positioning trends
1 Month: Medium-term institutional flows
3 Months: Quarterly positioning aligned with contract expiration cycles
Smart Data Handling: Utilizes last known values when data is temporarily unavailable, preventing false signals from data gaps while clearly indicating when stale data is being used.
EMA Smoothing: Incorporates a customizable Exponential Moving Average (default 65 periods) to identify the underlying trend in open interest, filtering out daily noise and highlighting significant deviations.
Dynamic Visualization:
Color-coded main line showing directional changes (green for increases, red for decreases)
Optional fill areas between OI and EMA to visualize momentum
Separate contract lines for detailed rollover analysis
Customizable labels for significant percentage changes
Comprehensive Information Table: Displays real-time statistics including:
Current total open interest across both contracts
Period-over-period changes in absolute and percentage terms
EMA deviation metrics
Visual status indicators for quick assessment
Contract symbols and data quality warnings
Alert System: Configurable alerts for:
Significant daily changes (customizable threshold)
EMA crossovers indicating trend changes
Large percentage movements suggesting institutional activity
How It Works:
Contract Detection: The indicator automatically identifies the base futures symbol and constructs the appropriate contract codes for the two nearest expirations, or accepts manual symbol input for non-standard contracts.
Data Aggregation: Open interest data from both contracts is retrieved and summed, providing a complete picture that accounts for positions rolling between contracts.
Historical Comparison: The indicator calculates changes from multiple lookback periods (1/5/22/66 days) to show how positioning has evolved across different time horizons.
Trend Analysis: The EMA overlay helps identify whether current open interest is above or below its smoothed average, indicating momentum in position building or reduction.
Visual Feedback: The main line changes color based on daily changes, while the optional table provides detailed numerical analysis for traders requiring precise data.
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This indicator is essential for futures traders, particularly those focused on index futures, commodities, or currency futures where understanding the aggregate positioning across nearby contracts is crucial. It's especially valuable during rollover periods when positions shift between contracts, and for identifying institutional accumulation or distribution patterns that single-contract analysis might miss. By combining multiple timeframe analysis with intelligent data handling and clear visualization, it simplifies the complex task of monitoring open interest dynamics across the futures curve.
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
The Daily Bias Dashboard📜 Overview
This indicator is a powerful statistical tool designed to provide traders with a probable Daily Bias based on historical price action. It is built upon the concepts of Quarterly Theory, which divides the 24-hour trading day into 4 distinct sessions to analyze market behavior.
This tool analyzes how the market has behaved in the past to give you a statistical edge. It answers the question: "Based on the last X number of days, what is the most likely way the price will move during the Newyork AM & PM Sessions based on Asian & London Sessions?"
⚙️ How It Works
The indicator divides the 24-hour day (based on the America/New_York timezone) into two 12-hour halves:
First Half - 12 Hour Candle: The Accumulation/Manipulation or Asian/London Sessions (6 PM to 6 AM NY Time)
This period covers the Asian session and the start of the London session.
The indicator's only job here is to identify the highest high and lowest low of this 12-hour block, establishing the initial daily range.
Second Half - 12 Hour Candle: The Distribution/Continuation or NY AM/PM Sessions (6 AM to 6 PM NY Time)
This period covers the main London session and the full New York session.
The indicator actively watches to see if, and in what order, the price breaks out of the range established in Session 1 (FIrst Half of the day).
By tracking this behavior over hundreds of days, the indicator compiles statistics on four possible daily scenarios.
📊 The Four Scenarios & The Dashboard
The indicator presents its findings in a clean, easy-to-read dashboard, calculating the historical probability of each of the following scenarios:
↓ Low, then ↑ High: The price first breaks the low of Session 1 (often a liquidity sweep or stop hunt) before reversing to break the high of Session 1. This suggests a "sweep and reverse" bullish day.
↑ High, then ↓ Low: The price first breaks the high of Session 1 before reversing to break the low of Session 1. This suggests a "sweep and reverse" bearish day.
One-Sided Breakout: The price breaks only one of the boundaries (either the high or the low) and continues in that direction without taking the other side. This indicates a strong, trending day.
No Breakout (Inside Bar): The price fails to break either the high or the low of Session 1, remaining contained within its range. This indicates a day of consolidation and low volatility.
🧠 How to Use This Indicator
This is a confluence tool, not a standalone trading system. Its purpose is to help you frame a high-probability narrative for the trading day.
Establish a Bias: Start checking the dashboard at 06:00 AM Newyork time, which is the start of next half day trading session. If one scenario has a significantly higher probability (e.g., "One-Sided Breakout" at 89%), you have a statistically-backed directional bias in the direction of Breakout.
🔧 Features & Settings
Historical Days to Analyze: Set how many past days the indicator should use for its statistical analysis (default is 500).
Session Timezone : The calculation is locked to America/New_York as it is central to the Quarterly Theory concept, but this setting ensures correct alignment.
Dashboard Display: Fully customize the on-screen table, including its position and text size, or hide it completely.
⚠️ Important Notes
For maximum accuracy, use this indicator on hourly (H1) or lower timeframes.
The statistical probabilities are based on past performance and are not a guarantee of future results.
This tool is designed to sharpen your analytical skills and provide a robust, data-driven framework for your daily trading decisions. Use it to build confidence in your directional bias and to better understand the rhythm of the market.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk.
Parabolic SAR Buy Zone📈 Parabolic SAR Buy Zone — Early Trend Reversal Indicator
This script highlights bullish reversals based on the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator.
🧠 Key Features:
Uses SAR parameters: Start: 0.02, Increment: 0.005, Max: 0.2
Visually marks the Buy Zone when SAR falls below the price
Background is light blue to show accumulation or early reversal zones
Yellow SAR dots help identify trend direction and potential exits
Includes alerts when SAR flips from bearish to bullish, signaling potential entry points
✅ Best Used For:
Identifying early trend reversals
Swing trading setups on daily or weekly charts
Combining with volume, RSI, or support zones for confirmation
🛎️ Customize alert to stay notified when new buy zones appear on your favorite stocks or cryptos.
Bollinger Levels Table - Horizontal Support ZonesBollinger Levels Table - Horizontal Support Zones Indicator (with Customizable Options)
The "Bollinger Levels Table - Horizontal Support Zones" indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to help you identify potential support areas on your chart using moving averages and Bollinger Bands. The indicator displays an organized table of key price levels and draws horizontal lines on the chart, providing clear visibility of potential support zones.
What Does This Indicator Do?
This indicator aims to simplify support analysis by consolidating and displaying significant price levels derived from three different Bollinger Band settings: BB10, BB20, and BB50. It calculates both the Mid-line (Basis) and the Lower Band for each of these settings.
Furthermore, the indicator automatically arranges these levels from highest to lowest in an easy-to-read table, assigning a "Payment" label to each level. These "Payments" are simply labels to help you track the levels in descending order.
How Does This Indicator Work?
Bollinger Band Calculations: The indicator uses the standard Bollinger Band formula:
Mid-line (Basis): A Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the closing price over a specified period.
Standard Deviation (Dev): The standard deviation of the closing price over the same period, multiplied by a Multiplier.
Lower Band: The Mid-line minus the Standard Deviation.
These calculations are applied to three different periods: 10, 20, and 50, providing a variety of potential support levels based on different timeframes. You can adjust the values for these lengths (10, 20, 50) and the Multiplier through the indicator's settings.
Table Construction: A dynamic table is created on the chart (which can be positioned in the top or bottom right corner based on the current price's position). This table displays:
Indicator: The name of the Bollinger Band level (e.g., BB10 Mid, BB20 Lower).
Price: The exact price value of that level.
Payments: A label indicating the level's order in the table.
Level Ordering: All calculated levels are dynamically sorted from highest to lowest to present them in a logical order within the table.
Horizontal Line Plotting: Horizontal lines are drawn on the chart for each selected level, providing a visual representation of the potential support areas. These lines are colored black and have a consistent width for easy identification.
How to Use This Indicator:
This indicator is intended to provide potential entry points or accumulation zones for trades, especially for traders employing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategies or building positions in stages. The levels displayed in the table and on the chart can represent potential support levels where one might consider initiating or adding to a position.
In the indicator's settings, you'll find important options:
Multiplier: Controls the width of the Bollinger Bands (default 2.0).
BB Lengths: Allows you to adjust the periods for the moving averages (default 20, 50, 10).
Visible Levels: This is the new feature! Here, you can select which levels you wish to see in the table and on the chart. Simply check or uncheck the boxes next to each level (BB10 Mid, BB10 Lower, and so on) to customize the indicator's display according to your strategy and needs.
Underlying Concepts:
This indicator is based on the principle that Bollinger Bands can act as dynamic support and resistance zones.
Mid-line (SMA): Often functions as a medium-term support or resistance.
Lower Band: Typically indicates that the price is relatively low and may find support, making it a potential area for buying or starting to build a position.
By combining different Bollinger Band timeframes (10, 20, 50), the indicator gives you a multi-timeframe perspective on support areas, helping you identify the most relevant levels for your strategy.
Note: While the indicator provides "Payments" for the levels, this is purely a sequential labeling within the table to assist your position-building strategy. There is no actual payment functionality associated with this indicator.
M3EDGE™ Relative Volume (RVOL)Relative Volume (RVOL) compares the current volume to its historical average.
🎯 Goal: Spot abnormal flows and anticipate impulsive moves.
🔍 M3EDGE™ Key Reading:
• RVOL > 2.0 → Likely institutional activity.
• RVOL > 1.5 → Heightened surveillance: potential move building.
• Price falling + high RVOL → Stealth accumulation / sell-side absorption.
• Price rising + high RVOL → Confirmed breakout with real flows.
💡 In the M3EDGE™ method, RVOL filters out false signals and validates setups by aligning flow + structure + momentum.
Applied to ETFs or stocks, it reveals what price action alone won’t show
Titan Wick Zone IndicatorThe Titan Wick Zone Indicator visually highlights the upper and lower wick regions of each candlestick on your chart, helping traders instantly identify areas where price was aggressively rejected (top wick) or absorbed (bottom wick). The indicator fills the area above the candle body to the wick high in red (sell zone), and the area below the candle body to the wick low in green (buy zone), both with adjustable opacity for clear visibility.
How to Use:
Spot Rejection and Absorption:
The red-filled upper wick zone marks where upward price moves were sharply rejected by sellers, often indicating supply, resistance, or “stop hunt” zones.
The green-filled lower wick zone marks where downward price moves were absorbed by buyers, pointing to potential demand, support, or accumulation zones.
Enhance Price Action Analysis:
Use these zones to avoid entering trades at price extremes, spot potential reversals, and find areas of confluence with support/resistance, Fibonacci levels, or order blocks.
Risk Management:
The indicator helps visualize where liquidity hunts or false breakouts may occur, so you can better place stop losses outside of volatile wick zones.
Ideal For:
Price action traders, scalpers, and swing traders seeking a visual edge in spotting supply/demand dynamics, liquidity zones, and wick-driven traps.
