ka66: Bar Range BandsThis tool takes a bar's range, and reflects it above the high and below the low of that bar, drawing upper and lower bands around the bar. Repeated for each bar. There's an option to then multiply that range by some multiple. Use a value greater than 1 to get wider bands, and less than one to get narrower bands.
This tool stems out of my frustration from the use of dynamic bands (like Keltner Channels, or Bollinger Bands), in particular for estimating take profit points.
Dynamic bands work great for entries and stop loss, but their dynamism is less useful for a future event like taking profit, in my experience. We can use a smaller multiple, but then we can often lose out on a bigger chunk of gains unnecessarily.
The inspiration for this came from a friend explaining an ICT/SMC concept around estimating the magnitude of a trend, by calculating the Asian Session Range, and reflecting it above or below on to the New York and London sessions. He described this as standard deviation of the Asian Range, where the range can thus be multiplied by some multiple for a wider or narrower deviation.
This, in turn, also reminded me of the Measured Move concept in Technical Analysis. We then consider that the market is fractal in nature, and this is why patterns persist in most timeframes. Traders exist across the spectrum of timeframes. Thus, a single bar on a timeframe, is made up of multiple bars on a lower timeframe . In other words, when we reflect a bar's range above or below itself, in the event that in a lower timeframe, that bar fit a pattern whose take profit target could be estimated via a Measured Move , then the band's value becomes a more valid estimate of a take profit point .
Yet another way to think about it, by way of the fractal nature above, is that it is essentially a simplified dynamic support and resistance mechanism , even simpler than say the various Pivot calculations (e.g. Classical, Camarilla, etc.).
This tool in general, can also be used by those who manually backtest setups (and certainly can be used in an automated setting too!). It is a research tool in that regard, applicable to various setups.
One of the pitfalls of manual backtesting is that it requires more discipline to really determine an exit point, because it's easy to say "oh, I'll know more or less where to exit when I go live, I just want to see that the entry tends to work". From experience, this is a bad idea, because our mind subconsciously knows that we haven't got a trained reflex on where to exit. The setup may be decent, but without an exit point, we will never have truly embraced and internalised trading it. Again, I speak from experience!
Thus, to use this to research take profit/exit points:
Have a setup in mind, with all the entry rules.
Plot your setup's indicators, mark your signals.
Use this indicator to get an idea of where to exit after taking an entry based on your signal.
Credits:
@ICT_ID for providing the idea of using ranges to estimate how far a trend move might go, in particular he used the Asian Range projected on to the London and New York market sessions.
All the technicians who came up with the idea of the Measured Move.
Search in scripts for "bands"
Concretum BandsDefinition
The Concretum Bands indicator recreates the Upper and Lower Bound of the Noise Area described in the paper "Beat the Market: An Effective Intraday Momentum Strategy for S&P500 ETF (SPY)" published by Concretum founder Zarattini, along with Barbon and Aziz, in May 2024.
Below we provide all the information required to understand how the indicator is calculated, the rationale behind it and how people can use it.
Idea Behind
The indicator aims to outline an intraday price region where the stock is expected to move without indicating any demand/supply imbalance. When the price crosses the boundaries of the Noise Area, it suggests a significant imbalance that may trigger an intraday trend.
How the Indicator is Calculated
The bands at time HH:MM are computed by taking the open price of day t and then adding/subtracting the average absolute move over the last n days from market open to minute HH:MM . The bands are also adjusted to account for overnight gaps. A volatility multiplier can be used to increase/decrease the width of the bands, similar to other well-known technical bands. The bands described in the paper were computed using a lookback period (length) of 14 days and a Volatility Multiplier of 1. Users can easily adjust these settings.
How to use the indicator
A trader may use this indicator to identify intraday moves that exceed the average move over the most recent period. A break outside the bands could be used as a signal of significant demand/supply imbalance.
Intraday Volatility Bands [Honestcowboy]The Intraday Volatility Bands aims to provide a better alternative to ATR in the calculation of targets or reversal points.
How are they different from ATR based bands?
While ATR and other measures of volatility base their calculations on the previous bars on the chart (for example bars 1954 to 1968). The volatility used in these bands measure expected volatility during that time of the day.
Why would you take this approach?
Markets behave different during certain times of the day, also called sessions.
Here are a couple examples.
Asian Session (generally low volatility)
London Session (bigger volatility starts)
New York Session (overlap of New York with London creates huge volatility)
Generally when using bands or channel type indicators intraday they do not account for the upcoming sessions. On London open price will quickly spike through a bollinger band and it will take some time for the bands to adjust to new volatility.
This script will show expected volatility targets at the start of each new bar and will not adjust during the bar. It already knows what price is expected to do at this time of day.
Script also plots arrows when price breaches either the top or bottom of the bands. You can also set alerts for when this occurs. These are non repainting as the script knows the level at start of the bar and does not change.
🔷 CALCULATION
Think of this script like an ATR but instead it uses past days data instead of previous bars data. Charts below should visualise this more clearly:
The scripts measure of volatility is based on a simple high-low.
The script also counts the number of bars that exist in a day on your current timeframe chart. After knowing that number it creates the matrix used in it's calculations and data storage.
See how it works perfectly on a lower timeframe chart below:
Getting this right was the hardest part, check the coding if you are interested in this type of stuff. I commented every step in the coding process.
🔷 SETTINGS
Every setting of the script has a tooltip but I provided a breakdown here:
Some more examples of different charts:
Vollinger BandsI'm happy to present to you... VOLLINGER BANDS. Loosely based on bollinger bands, this indicator uses the new Up/Down Volume indicator from tradingview, which I have add moving averages, and a width calculation between them to determine squeeze. Essentially I have created a volume squeeze bollinger band derivative, hence the term "Vollinger Band".
The bands are NOT a deviation of any middle line or moving average, but rather their own moving averages of the volume delta, respectively.
Blue background = Volume Squeeze (vollinger bands width is less than the squeeze strength line), meaning consolidation, and a big move may happen soon.
Top line = A moving average of the Up Volume delta
Bottom line = A moving average of the Down Volume delta
Vol MA = the moving average length of both the top/bottom line
> If you zoom in, you can see a white line, which is the squeeze represented as a single line, calculated using bollinger bands width. The squeeze strength is a moving average of the squeeze line, which then determines if the width is below that moving average, then the squeeze will occur (white line below purple)
The bands are colored based on the sum of the Up/Down volume over the specified number of bars (preset at 5). If the volume is more buying than selling over that amount of bars, then the line is colored green, and vice versa.
[blackcat] L1 Vitali Apirine Exponential Deviation BandsLevel 1
Background
Vitali Apirine’s articles in the July issues on 2019,“Exponential Deviation Bands”
Function
In “Exponential Deviation Bands” in this issue, author Vitali Apirine introduces a price band indicator based on exponential deviation rather than the more traditional standard deviation, such as is used in the well-known Bollinger Bands. As compared to standard deviation bands, the author’s exponential deviation bands apply more weight to recent data and generate fewer breakouts. Apirine describes using the bands as a tool to assist in identifying trends.
Remarks
Feedbacks are appreciated.
BBSS - Bollinger Bands Scalping SignalsModified Bollinger Bands Indicator
Added:
- color change divergence (green) and narrowing (red) of the upper and lower bands
- color change of the moving average - upward trend (green) and downward trend (red)
- the appearance of a potential signal for long and short positions when the candle closes behind the upper or lower bands.
How to use the indicator:
Long conditions:
- the price breaks through the upper band
- Bollinger bands are expanding and should be green
- the mid-line is green
- the trigger candle should be green
Short conditions:
- the price breaks through the lower band
- Bollinger bands are expanding and should be red
- the mid-line is red
- the trigger candle should be red
MTF VWAP & StDev BandsMulti Timeframe Volume Weighted Average Price with Standard Deviation Bands
I used the script "Koalafied VWAP D/W/M/Q/Y" by Koalafied_3 and made some changes, such as adding more standard deviation bands.
The script can display the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly VWAP.
Standard deviation bands values can be changed (default values are 0.618, 1, 1.618, 2, 2.618, 3).
Also the previous standard deviation bands can be displayed.
Bollinger Bands (SMA) with Trend Filtered Buy/SellOverview
This indicator is a trend-following Bollinger Bands tool based on SMA, enhanced with a 200 SMA filter to display BUY/SELL signals only in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Instead of showing every possible reversal, it focuses on high-probability entries aligned with the trend.
Key Features
Feature Description
Bollinger Bands (SMA) Plots upper, lower, and middle bands using Simple Moving Average (SMA) and standard deviation.
200 SMA Trend Filter Determines the overall market trend (bullish or bearish).
BUY/SELL Signals Generates signals when price reacts from Bollinger Bands.
Trend Filtering Only BUY signals above the 200 SMA, only SELL signals below the 200 SMA.
Alert Function TradingView alerts can be triggered when a signal occurs.
Toggle ON/OFF Option to enable or disable signal display.
Signal Logic
BUY Signal
Price is above the 200 SMA (uptrend)
Previous candle closed below the lower Bollinger Band
Current candle closes back inside the band → Confirmed rebound → BUY signal
SELL Signal
Price is below the 200 SMA (downtrend)
Previous candle closed above the upper Bollinger Band
Current candle closes back inside the band → Confirmed pullback → SELL signal
How to Use
Trend-Following Entries:
Enter trades only in the trend direction, improving accuracy and reducing countertrend trades.
Filter Out False Signals:
The 200 SMA filter removes noise from opposite-trend signals.
Alerts:
Receive notifications when a valid BUY/SELL setup appears without watching the chart constantly.
This indicator is ideal for traders who want to focus on high-probability trend-following setups, especially in markets like Forex or Gold, where strong one-way moves often occur.
このインジケーターは、SMAベースのボリンジャーバンドにトレンドフィルター（200SMA）を追加し、トレンドフォロー型のBUY/SELLシグナルを表示するツールです。
短期の逆張りではなく、大きなトレンド方向に沿ったシグナルだけを出すように設計されています。
主な機能
機能 説明
ボリンジャーバンド (SMA) 期間を指定した単純移動平均（SMA）を基準に、標準偏差で上下のバンドを表示
200SMA（トレンド判定） 現在の相場が上昇トレンドか下降トレンドかを判断
BUY/SELLシグナル ボリンジャーバンドの反発を検出してシグナル表示
トレンドフィルター 200SMAより上ならBUYのみ、200SMAより下ならSELLのみ表示
アラート機能 BUY/SELLシグナル発生時にTradingViewのアラートで通知可能
ON/OFF切替 BUY/SELLシグナルの表示はスイッチでON/OFF可能
シグナルロジック
BUYシグナル
200SMAより上にいる
前の足で価格がボリンジャーバンド下限を下抜け
現在の足でバンド内に戻る → 反発確認 → BUYシグナル表示
SELLシグナル
200SMAより下にいる
前の足で価格がボリンジャーバンド上限を上抜け
現在の足でバンド内に戻る → 反落確認 → SELLシグナル表示
トレードでの使い方
トレンドフォロー型エントリー
→ 200SMAを基準に、相場の方向に沿ったエントリーだけを狙う
逆張りのフィルタリング
→ トレンドに逆らう無駄なシグナルを表示しない
アラート通知
→ チャートを見ていなくても、シグナル発生時に通知可能
このインジケーターは「トレンドフォローの精度を高めたいトレーダー」向けです。
特にゴールドやFXで、一方向の強いトレンドが出やすい相場で有効です。
VWAP with Prev. Session BandsVWAP with Prev. Session Bands is an advanced indicator based on TradingView’s original VWAP. It adds configurable standard deviation or percentage-based bands, both for the current and previous session. You can anchor the VWAP to various timeframes or events (like Sessions, Weeks, Months, Earnings, etc.) and selectively show up to three bands.
The unique feature of this script is the ability to display the VWAP and bands from the previous session, helping traders visualize mean reversion levels or historical volatility ranges.
Built on top of the official TradingView VWAP implementation, this version provides enhanced flexibility and visual clarity for intraday and swing traders alike.
Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (Fine-Tuned)This indicator, "Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Bands (Fine-Tuned)," is my attempt to create a tool for estimating long-term trends in Ethereum (ETH/USD) price action using logarithmic regression bands. Please note that I am not an expert in financial modeling or coding—I developed this as a personal project to serve as a rough estimation rather than a precise or professional trading tool. The data was fitted to non-bubble periods of Ethereum's history to provide a general trendline, but it’s far from perfect.
I’m sharing this because I couldn’t find a similar indicator available, and I thought it might be useful for others who are also exploring ETH’s long-term behavior. The bands start from Ethereum’s launch price and are adjustable via input parameters, but they are based on my best effort to align with historical data. With some decent coding experience, I’m sure someone could refine this further—perhaps by optimizing the coefficients or incorporating more advanced fitting techniques. Feel free to tweak the code, suggest improvements, or use it as a starting point for your own projects!
How to Use:
** THIS CHART IS SPECIFICALLY CODED FOR ETH/USD (KRAKEN) ON THE WEEKLY TIMEFRAME IN LOG VIEW**
The main band (blue) represents the logarithmic regression line.
The upper (red) and lower (green) bands provide a range around the main trend, adjustable with multipliers.
Adjust the "Launch Price," "Base Coefficient," "Growth Coefficient," and other inputs to experiment with different fits.
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Use at your own risk, and always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
Bollinger Bands + RSI StrategyThe Bollinger Bands + RSI strategy combines volatility and momentum indicators to spot trading opportunities in intraday settings. Here’s a concise summary:
Components:
Bollinger Bands: Measures market volatility. The lower band signals potential buying opportunities when the price is considered oversold.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Evaluates momentum to identify overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI below 30 indicates oversold, suggesting a buy, and above 70 indicates overbought, suggesting a sell.
Strategy Execution:
Buy Signal : Triggered when the price falls below the lower Bollinger Band while the RSI is also below 30.
Sell Signal : Activated when the price exceeds the upper Bollinger Band with an RSI above 70.
Exit Strategy : Exiting a buy position is considered when the RSI crosses back above 50, capturing potential rebounds.
Advantages:
Combines price levels with momentum for more reliable signals.
Clearly defined entry and exit points help minimize emotional trading.
Considerations:
Can produce false signals in very volatile or strongly trending markets.
Best used in markets without a strong prevailing trend.
This strategy aids traders in making decisions based on technical indicators, enhancing their ability to profit from short-term price movements.
Bollinger Bands Weighted Alert System (BBWAS)The idea of this indicator is very similar to my previous published script called BBAS (Bollinger Bands Alert System).
Just with little additions. In this case, we're using a Weighted Moving Average (ta.wma) instead of Simple Moving Average to calculate the basis line.
A breakout in trading refers to a situation where the price of a security or asset moves beyond a defined level of support or resistance, which is typically indicated by technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: the upper band, the lower band, and the middle band (or basis). The upper and lower bands are set at a specified number of standard deviations away from the middle band, and they help to define the range within which the price of an asset is expected to fluctuate.
When the price of the asset moves beyond the upper or lower band, it is said to have "broken out" of the range. If the price closes below the lower band, it is considered a bearish breakout, and if it closes above the upper band, it is considered a bullish breakout.
Once a breakout occurs, traders may look for a confirmation signal before entering a trade. In this case, crossing the middle line (or basis) after a breakout may signal a potential trend reversal and a good opportunity to enter a long or short trade, depending on the direction of the breakout.
Dear traders, while we strive to provide you with the best trading tools and resources, we want to remind you to exercise caution and diligence in your investing decisions.
It is important to always do your own research and analysis before making any trades. Remember, the responsibility for your investments ultimately lies with you.
Happy trading!
DEMA Supertrend Bands [Misu]█ Indicator based on DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) & Supertrend to show Bands .
DEMA attempts to remove the inherent lag associated with Moving Averages by placing more weight on recent values.
Supertrend aims to detect price trends, it's also used to set protective stops.
█ Usages:
Combining Dema to calculate Supertrend results in nice lower and upper bands.
This can be used to identify potential supports and resistances and set protective stops.
█ Parameters:
Length DEMA: Double Ema lenght used to calculate DEMA. Dema is used by Supertrend indicator.
Length Atr: Atr lenght used to calculate Atr. Atr is used by Supertrend indicator.
Band Mult: Used to calculate Supertrend Bands width.
█ Other Applications:
The mid band can be used to filter bad signals in the manner of a more classical Moving Average.
Bollinger Bands color candlesThis Pine Script indicator applies Bollinger Bands to the price chart and visually highlights candles based on their proximity to the upper and lower bands. The script plots colored candles as follows:
Bullish Close Above Upper Band: Candles are colored green when the closing price is above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Bearish Close Below Lower Band: Candles are colored red when the closing price is below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling strong bearish momentum.
Neutral Candles: Candles that close within the bands remain their default color.
This visual aid helps traders quickly identify potential breakout or breakdown points based on Bollinger Band dynamics.
BOLLY BandsThis is a strategy using Bollinger Bands. The strategy is predicated around having low volatility in price action and then looking to capture a move when price starts to trend outside of the Bollinger bands. This strategy has only been backtested for 1 month but it has promising results so I will be sharing it looking for feedback. I run this strategy on the ERUSD 1 min chart.
Percentile Rank of Bollinger BandsThis simple indicator provides you three useful information with Bollinger Bands:
How wide the current width (standard deviation) of the Bollinger Band is.
Compared to the widths in the past, is the current width relatively small or big? Value is expressed in percentile format.
What the "relative position of current price" to the current Bollinger Band is.
This indicator can be useful to identify whether the Bollinger Band has substantially "expanded" or "squeezed."
First, divide the current standard deviation by the current price, we get the current width. The current width is displayed by the columns at the bottom. When the current width becomes wider, the column becomes taller, and the color is dark green. On the contrary, if the width becomes narrower, the column becomes shorter and the color is light green.
Next, compare the current width with the previous N widths, we get the percentile rank for the current width. The percentile rank is shown by the thicker line graph. When the percentile rank grows, it is green; whereas when the rank declines, the color is red.
Lastly, calculate (close - lower)/(upper - lower) and we get an idea of the relative height of the current price, compared to the upper and lower band. This is displayed by the thinner line graph. When the relative position becomes higher, the color is in aqua. It is in blue when the relative position becomes lower. Note that since closing prices can go above the upper band or go below the lower band, the values may be greater than 100 or less than 0.
EMA Bollinger Bands with customized std dev and moving averageTo use EMA with band you need to set input parameter named as "TypeOfMa" to 1.
If you set TypeOfMa = 1 then it will use EMA average for Bollinger bands.
If you set TypeOfMa = 0 then it will use MA average for Bollinger bands.
Floating Bands of the Argentine Peso (Sebastian.Waisgold)
The BCRA ( Central Bank of the Argentine Republic ) announced that as of Monday, April 15, 2025, the Argentine Peso (USDARS) will float within a system of divergent exchange rate bands.
The upper band was set at ARS 1400 per USD on 15/04/2025, with a +1% monthly adjustment distributed daily, rising by a fraction each day.
The lower band was set at ARS 1000 per USD on 15/04/2025, with a –1% monthly adjustment distributed daily, falling by a fraction each day.
This indicator is crucial for anyone trading USDARS, since the BCRA will only intervene in these situations:
- Selling : if the Peso depreciates against the USD above the upper band .
- Buying : if the Peso appreciates against the USD below the lower band .
Therefore, this indicator can be used as follows:
- If USDARS is above the upper band , it is “expensive” and you may sell .
- If USDARS is below the lower band , it is “cheap” and you may buy .
It can also be applied to other assets such as:
- USDTARS
- Dollar Cable / CCL (Contado con Liquidación) , derived from the BCBA:YPFD / NYSE:YPF ratio.
A mid band —exactly halfway between the upper and lower bands—has also been added.
Once added, the indicator should look like this:
In the following image you can see:
- Upper Floating Band
- Lower Floating Band
- Mid Floating Band
User Configuration
By double-clicking any line you can adjust:
- Start day (Dia de incio), month (Mes de inicio), and year (Año de inicio)
- Initial upper band value (Valor inicial banda superior)
- Initial lower band value (Valor inicial banda inferior)
- Monthly rate Tasa mensual %)
It is recommended not to modify these settings for the Argentine Peso, as they reflect the BCRA’s official framework. However, you may customize them—and the line colors—for other assets or currencies implementing a similar band scheme.
M2 GLI SD BandsHighly customizable M2 Global Liquidity Index with adaptive standard deviation bands.
The SD bands incorporate data from M2 with varying lags to capture M2's full impact on the price of Bitcoin spread across multiple weeks.
EMAs are used for smoothing. Offset, smoothing, and other features are customizable.
Swing BandsThis indicator is a result of experimentation with price action of candle high and lows for quantifying reversals and trend continuation.
The band area shows trend reversal incoming and possible chop.
Middle line is the trend reversal price level. Candle colors change if the close price is above or below the middle line.
Long and short positions can be taken when above or below the bands.
Trend continuations are in effect when price retraces into the bands and breaks above or below in the same direction of the trend.
StDev BandsThis is a "bands"-type indicator. It was developed out of my Sharpe Ratio indicator . It uses the standard deviation of returns as basis for drawing the bands. I'm going to update this indicator as the other indicator evolves. Please be sure you know how to calculate Sharpe Ratio and check out the Sharpe Ratio indicator as well. This will help you understand the purpose of this indicator a bit more.
As a very short introduction. Many investors use the standard deviation of returns as risk measurement . I admit the defaults of this indicator aren't perfect. Normally investors use the standard deviation over a 1 year period. Traditional finance uses 265 days, and because crypto never sleeps, we could use 365. I defaulted it to 20.
Accurate Bollinger Bands mcbw_ [True Volatility Distribution]The Bollinger Bands have become a very important technical tool for discretionary and algorithmic traders alike over the last decades. It was designed to give traders an edge on the markets by setting probabilistic values to different levels of volatility. However, some of the assumptions that go into its calculations make it unusable for traders who want to get a correct understanding of the volatility that the bands are trying to be used for. Let's go through what the Bollinger Bands are said to show, how their calculations work, the problems in the calculations, and how the current indicator I am presenting today fixes these.
--> If you just want to know how the settings work then skip straight to the end or click on the little (i) symbol next to the values in the indicator settings window when its on your chart <--
--------------------------- What Are Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The Bollinger Bands were formed in the 1980's, a time when many retail traders interacted with their symbols via physically printed charts and computer memory for personal computer memory was measured in Kb (about a factor of 1 million smaller than today). Bollinger Bands are designed to help a trader or algorithm see the likelihood of price expanding outside of its typical range, the further the lines are from the current price implies the less often they will get hit. With a hands on understanding many strategies use these levels for designated levels of breakout trades or to assist in defining price ranges.
--------------------------- How Bollinger Bands Work ---------------------------
The calculations that go into Bollinger Bands are rather simple. There is a moving average that centers the indicator and an equidistant top band and bottom band are drawn at a fixed width away. The moving average is just a typical moving average (or common variant) that tracks the price action, while the distance to the top and bottom bands is a direct function of recent price volatility. The way that the distance to the bands is calculated is inspired by formulas from statistics. The standard deviation is taken from the candles that go into the moving average and then this is multiplied by a user defined value to set the bands position, I will call this value 'the multiple'. When discussing Bollinger Bands, that trading community at large normally discusses 'the multiple' as a multiplier of the standard deviation as it applies to a normal distribution (gaußian probability). On a normal distribution the number of standard deviations away (which trades directly use as 'the multiple') you are directly corresponds to how likely/unlikely something is to happen:
1 standard deviation equals 68.3%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 1 standard deviation 68.3% of the time and be outside of it 31.7% of the time;
2 standard deviation equals 95.5%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 2 standard deviation 95.5% of the time and be outside of it 4.5% of the time;
3 standard deviation equals 99.7%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 3 standard deviation 99.7% of the time and be outside of it 0.3% of the time.
Therefore when traders set 'the multiple' to 2, they interpret this as meaning that price will not reach there 95.5% of the time.
---------------- The Problem With The Math of Bollinger Bands ----------------
In and of themselves the Bollinger Bands are a great tool, but they have become misconstrued with some incorrect sense of statistical meaning, when they should really just be taken at face value without any further interpretation or implication.
In order to explain this it is going to get a bit technical so I will give a little math background and try to simplify things. First let's review some statistics topics (distributions, percentiles, standard deviations) and then with that understanding explore the incorrect logic of how Bollinger Bands have been interpreted/employed.
---------------- Quick Stats Review ----------------
.
(If you are comfortable with statistics feel free to skip ahead to the next section)
.
-------- I: Probability distributions --------
When you have a lot of data it is helpful to see how many times different results appear in your dataset. To visualize this people use "histograms", which just shows how many times each element appears in the dataset by stacking each of the same elements on top of each other to form a graph. You may be familiar with the bell curve (also called the "normal distribution", which we will be calling it by). The normal distribution histogram looks like a big hump around zero and then drops off super quickly the further you get from it. This shape (the bell curve) is very nice because it has a lot of very nifty mathematical properties and seems to show up in nature all the time. Since it pops up in so many places, society has developed many different shortcuts related to it that speed up all kinds of calculations, including the shortcut that 1 standard deviation = 68.3%, 2 standard deviations = 95.5%, and 3 standard deviations = 99.7% (these only apply to the normal distribution). Despite how handy the normal distribution is and all the shortcuts we have for it are, and how much it shows up in the natural world, there is nothing that forces your specific dataset to look like it. In fact, your data can actually have any possible shape. As we will explore later, economic and financial datasets *rarely* follow the normal distribution.
-------- II: Percentiles --------
After you have made the histogram of your dataset you have built the "probability distribution" of your own dataset that is specific to all the data you have collected. There is a whole complicated framework for how to accurately calculate percentiles but we will dramatically simplify it for our use. The 'percentile' in our case is just the number of data points we are away from the "middle" of the data set (normally just 0). Lets say I took the difference of the daily close of a symbol for the last two weeks, green candles would be positive and red would be negative. In this example my dataset of day by day closing price difference is:
week 1:
week 2:
sorting all of these value into a single dataset I have:
I can separate the positive and negative returns and explore their distributions separately:
negative return distribution =
positive return distribution =
Taking the 25th% percentile of these would just be taking the value that is 25% towards the end of the end of these returns. Or akin the 100%th percentile would just be taking the vale that is 100% at the end of those:
negative return distribution (50%) = -5
positive return distribution (50%) = +4
negative return distribution (100%) = -10
positive return distribution (100%) = +20
Or instead of separating the positive and negative returns we can also look at all of the differences in the daily close as just pure price movement and not account for the direction, in this case we would pool all of the data together by ignoring the negative signs of the negative reruns
combined return distribution =
In this case the 50%th and 100%th percentile of the combined return distribution would be:
combined return distribution (50%) = 4
combined return distribution (100%) = 10
Sometimes taking the positive and negative distributions separately is better than pooling them into a combined distribution for some purposes. Other times the combined distribution is better.
Most financial data has very different distributions for negative returns and positive returns. This is encapsulated in sayings like "Price takes the stairs up and the elevator down".
-------- III: Standard Deviation --------
The formula for the standard deviation (refereed to here by its shorthand 'STDEV') can be intimidating, but going through each of its elements will illuminate what it does. The formula for STDEV is equal to:
square root ( (sum ) / N )
Going back the the dataset that you might have, the variables in the formula above are:
'mean' is the average of your entire dataset
'x' is just representative of a single point in your dataset (one point at a time)
'N' is the total number of things in your dataset.
Going back to the STDEV formula above we can see how each part of it works. Starting with the '(x - mean)' part. What this does is it takes every single point of the dataset and measure how far away it is from the mean of the entire dataset. Taking this value to the power of two: '(x - mean) ^ 2', means that points that are very far away from the dataset mean get 'penalized' twice as much. Points that are very close to the dataset mean are not impacted as much. In practice, this would mean that if your dataset had a bunch of values that were in a wide range but always stayed in that range, this value ('(x - mean) ^ 2') would end up being small. On the other hand, if your dataset was full of the exact same number, but had a couple outliers very far away, this would have a much larger value since the square par of '(x - mean) ^ 2' make them grow massive. Now including the sum part of 'sum ', this just adds up all the of the squared distanced from the dataset mean. Then this is divided by the number of values in the dataset ('N'), and then the square root of that value is taken.
There is nothing inherently special or definitive about the STDEV formula, it is just a tool with extremely widespread use and adoption. As we saw here, all the STDEV formula is really doing is measuring the intensity of the outliers.
--------------------------- Flaws of Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The largest problem with Bollinger Bands is the assumption that price has a normal distribution. This is assumption is massively incorrect for many reasons that I will try to encapsulate into two points:
Price return do not follow a normal distribution, every single symbol on every single timeframe has is own unique distribution that is specific to only itself. Therefore all the tools, shortcuts, and ideas that we use for normal distributions do not apply to price returns, and since they do not apply here they should not be used. A more general approach is needed that allows each specific symbol on every specific timeframe to be treated uniquely.
The distributions of price returns on the positive and negative side are almost never the same. A more general approach is needed that allows positive and negative returns to be calculated separately.
In addition to the issues of the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula (as shown above in the quick stats review) is essentially just a tame measurement of outliers (a more aggressive form of outlier measurement might be taking the differences to the power of 3 rather than 2). Despite this being a bit of a philosophical question, does the measurement of outlier intensity as defined by the STDEV formula really measure what we want to know as traders when we're experiencing volatility? Or would adjustments to that formula better reflect what we *experience* as volatility when we are actively trading? This is an open ended question that I will leave here, but I wanted to pose this question because it is a key part of what how the Bollinger Bands work that we all assume as a given.
Circling back on the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula used in the calculation of the bands only encompasses the deviation of the candles that go into the moving average and have no knowledge of the historical price action. Therefore the level of the bands may not really reflect how the price action behaves over a longer period of time.
------------ Delivering Factually Accurate Data That Traders Need------------
In light of the problems identified above, this indicator fixes all of these issue and delivers statistically correct information that discretionary and algorithmic traders can use, with truly accurate probabilities. It takes the price action of the last 2,000 candles and builds a huge dataset of distributions that you can directly select your percentiles from. It also allows you to have the positive and negative distributions calculated separately, or if you would like, you can pool all of them together in a combined distribution. In addition to this, there is a wide selection of moving averages directly available in the indicator to choose from.
Hedge funds, quant shops, algo prop firms, and advanced mechanical groups all employ the true return distributions in their work. Now you have access to the same type of data with this indicator, wherein it's doing all the lifting for you.
------------------------------ Indicator Settings ------------------------------
.
---- Moving average ----
Select the type of moving average you would like and its length
---- Bands ----
The percentiles that you enter here will be pulled directly from the return distribution of the last 2,000 candles. With the typical Bollinger Bands, traders would select 2 standard deviations and incorrectly think that the levels it highlights are the 95.5% levels. Now, if you want the true 95.5% level, you can just enter 95.5 into the percentile value here. Each of the three available bands takes the true percentile you enter here.
---- Separate Positive & Negative Distributions----
If this box is checked the positive and negative distributions are treated indecently, completely separate from each other. You will see that the width of the top and bottom bands will be different for each of the percentiles you enter.
If this box is unchecked then all the negative and positive distributions are pooled together. You will notice that the width of the top and bottom bands will be the exact same.
---- Distribution Size ----
This is the number of candles that the price return is calculated over. EG: to collect the price return over the last 33 candles, the difference of price from now to 33 candles ago is calculated for the last 2,000 candles, to build a return distribution of 2000 points of price differences over 33 candles.
NEGATIVE NUMBERS(<0) == exact number of candles to include;
EG: setting this value to -20 will always collect volatility distributions of 20 candles
POSITIVE NUMBERS(>0) == number of candles to include as a multiple of the Moving Average Length value set above;
EG: if the Moving Average Length value is set to 22, setting this value to 2 will use the last 22*2 = 44 candles for the collection of volatility distributions
MORE candles being include will generally make the bands WIDER and their size will change SLOWER over time.
I wish you focus, dedication, and earnest success on your journey.
Happy trading :)
Standard Deviation BandsStandard Deviation Bands
คำอธิบายอินดิเคเตอร์:
อินดิเคเตอร์ SD Bands (Standard Deviation Bands) เป็นเครื่องมือวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิคที่ออกแบบมาเพื่อวัดความผันผวนของราคาและระบุโอกาสในการเทรดที่อาจเกิดขึ้น อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะแสดงผลเป็นเส้นขอบ 2 เส้นบนกราฟราคาโดยตรง โดยอ้างอิงจากค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่ (Moving Average) และค่าส่วนเบี่ยงเบนมาตรฐาน (Standard Deviation)
* เส้นบน (Upper Band): แสดงระดับที่ราคาเคลื่อนไหวสูงกว่าค่าเฉลี่ย
* เส้นล่าง (Lower Band): แสดงระดับที่ราคาเคลื่อนไหวต่ำกว่าค่าเฉลี่ย
ความกว้างของช่องระหว่างเส้นทั้งสองบ่งบอกถึงระดับความผันผวนของตลาดในปัจจุบัน
วิธีการใช้งานอย่างละเอียด:
คุณสามารถนำอินดิเคเตอร์ SD Bands ไปประยุกต์ใช้ได้หลายวิธีเพื่อประกอบการตัดสินใจ ดังนี้:
1. การใช้เป็นแนวรับ-แนวต้านแบบไดนามิก (Dynamic Support & Resistance)
* แนวรับ: เมื่อราคาวิ่งลงมาแตะหรือเข้าใกล้เส้นล่าง (เส้นสีน้ำเงิน) เส้นนี้อาจทำหน้าที่เป็นแนวรับชั่วคราวและมีโอกาสที่ราคาจะเด้งกลับขึ้นไปหาเส้นกลาง
* แนวต้าน: เมื่อราคาวิ่งขึ้นไปแตะหรือเข้าใกล้เส้นบน (เส้นสีแดง) เส้นนี้อาจทำหน้าที่เป็นแนวต้านชั่วคราวและมีโอกาสที่ราคาจะย่อตัวลงมา
2. การวัดความผันผวนและสัญญาณ Breakout
* ช่วงตลาดสงบ (Low Volatility): เมื่อเส้น SD ทั้งสองเส้นบีบตัวเข้าหากันเป็นช่องที่แคบมาก (คล้ายกับ Bollinger Squeeze) แสดงว่าตลาดมีความผันผวนต่ำมาก ซึ่งมักจะเป็นสัญญาณว่ากำลังจะเกิดการเคลื่อนไหวครั้งใหญ่ (Breakout)
* ช่วงตลาดเป็นเทรนด์ (High Volatility): เมื่อเส้น SD ขยายตัวกว้างออกอย่างรวดเร็ว พร้อมกับที่ราคาวิ่งอยู่นอกขอบ แสดงว่าตลาดเข้าสู่ช่วงเทรนด์ที่แข็งแกร่งและมีโมเมนตัมสูง
3. สัญญาณการกลับตัว (Reversal Signals)
* เมื่อราคาปิดแท่งเทียน นอกเส้น SD Bands อย่างชัดเจน (โดยเฉพาะหลังจากที่เทรนด์นั้นดำเนินมานาน) อาจเป็นสัญญาณว่าแรงซื้อ/แรงขายเริ่มอ่อนกำลังลง และมีโอกาสที่จะเกิดการกลับตัวของราคาในไม่ช้า
การตั้งค่าอินพุต (Input Parameters):
* ระยะเวลา (Length): กำหนดจำนวนแท่งเทียนที่ใช้ในการคำนวณค่าเฉลี่ยและ SD
* 20: สำหรับการวิเคราะห์ระยะสั้นถึงกลาง
* 50 หรือ 100: สำหรับการวิเคราะห์ระยะยาว
* ตัวคูณ (Multiplier): กำหนดระยะห่างของเส้น SD จากค่าเฉลี่ย
* 1.0 - 2.0: เส้นจะอยู่ใกล้ราคามากขึ้น ทำให้เกิดสัญญาณบ่อยขึ้น
* 2.0 - 3.0: เส้นจะอยู่ห่างจากราคามากขึ้น ทำให้เกิดสัญญาณที่น่าเชื่อถือมากขึ้น แต่จะเกิดไม่บ่อย
ข้อควรระวังและคำเตือน:
* อินดิเคเตอร์นี้เป็นเพียง เครื่องมือวิเคราะห์ เพื่อช่วยในการตัดสินใจ ไม่ใช่สัญญาณการซื้อขายที่ถูกต้อง 100%
* ควรใช้ร่วมกับเครื่องมืออื่นๆ เช่น RSI, MACD, หรือ Volume เพื่อยืนยันสัญญาณ
* การเทรดมีความเสี่ยงสูง ควรบริหารจัดการความเสี่ยงและตั้งจุด Stop Loss ทุกครั้ง
คุณสามารถใช้โครงสร้างนี้ในการเขียนโพสต์บน TradingView ได้เลยนะครับ ขอให้ประสบความสำเร็จกับการโพสต์อินดิเคเตอร์ของคุณครับ!
English
Standard Deviation Bands
Indicator Description:
The SD Bands (Standard Deviation Bands) indicator is a powerful technical analysis tool designed to measure price volatility and identify potential trading opportunities. The indicator displays two dynamic bands directly on the price chart, based on a moving average and a customizable standard deviation multiplier.
* Upper Band: Indicates price levels above the moving average.
* Lower Band: Indicates price levels below the moving average.
The width of the channel between these two bands provides a clear picture of current market volatility.
Detailed User Guide:
You can use SD Bands in several ways to enhance your trading decisions:
1. Dynamic Support and Resistance:
These bands can act as dynamic support and resistance levels.
* Support: When the price moves down and touches or approaches the lower band, it can act as support, offering the possibility of a rebound to the average.
* Resistance: When the price moves up and touches or approaches the upper band, it can act as resistance, offering the possibility of a rebound.
2. Volatility Measurement and Breakout Signals:
* Low Volatility (Squeeze): When the two bands converge and form a narrow channel. Indicates very low market volatility. This condition often occurs before significant price movements or breakouts.
* High Volatility (Expansion): When the bands expand and widen rapidly, it indicates that the market is entering a period of strong trending momentum with high momentum.
3. Reversal Signals:
* When the price closes significantly outside the SD Bands (especially after a long-term trend), it may signal that the current momentum has expired and a reversal may be imminent.
Input Parameters:
The indicator's parameters are fully customizable to suit your trading style:
* Length: Defines the number of bars used to calculate the moving average and standard deviation.
* 20: Suitable for short- to medium-term analysis.
* 50 or 100: Suitable for long-term trend analysis.
* Multiplier: Adjusts the sensitivity of the signal bars.
* 1.0 - 2.0: Creates narrower signal bars, leading to more frequent signals.
* 2.0 - 3.0: Creates wider signal bars, providing fewer but potentially more significant signals.
Important Warning:
* This indicator is an analytical tool only. It does not provide guaranteed buy or sell signals.
* Always use it in conjunction with other indicators (such as RSI, MACD, and Volume) for confirmation.
* Trading involves high risk. Proper risk management, including the use of stop-loss orders, is recommended.
You can use this structure for your posts on TradingView. Good luck with your indicators!
