Black Scholes Model [racer8]This is the Black Scholes Model. This indicator tells you the prices of both a call option & a put option.
Input variables are spot price, strike price, risk free rate %, days to maturity, and implied volatility %.
This indicator was made generally for educational purposes.
By using this indicator, you will develop a better understanding of how options are priced.
This indicator was made to be as simple as possible so that the user can easily understand it.
I recreated the Black Scholes Model because there is very little scripts on TV that are based on the Black Scholes Model.
I am aware that are Black Scholes Model (BSM) scripts already on TV, but mine is not the same. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is a BSM script out there yet that relies on the exact same inputs that mine does.
Why use this indicator?
If you don't already have your own IV indicator...
You can use this indicator to approximate the value of implied volatility %.
You already know every input variable except IV%, and you know the call & put option prices.
So put in the numbers for each input and put a random number between 0 to 100 into the IV% input to get the options prices.
Adjust that random number for IV% until the output (options prices) matches correctly with what you already know they are to be.
This is called the trial and error method.
On the other hand, if you already know all input variables including IV%. Then you can use this indicator to find the call & put options prices directly.
Hope this helps. Enjoy 🙂
Search in scripts for "implied"
MarketMind LITEM🜁rketMind LITE ────────────────────
Essential Market Awareness, Reduced to Its Core
M🜁rketMind LITE is a lightweight market awareness tool designed to display essential situational context .
It provides basic orientation and movement awareness without interpretation, risk framing, diagnostics, or decision guidance.
This script is designed as a standalone awareness layer. It does not evaluate trade quality, issue signals, or influence decision-making.
WHAT IT DOES ────────────────────
M🜁rketMind LITE presents a minimal, static view of current market conditions focused entirely on awareness rather than analysis.
The system displays only essential context, allowing traders to stay oriented without introducing judgment, noise, or implied direction.
The script provides visibility into:
Time-of-day session context
Basic market regime classification (trending, range-bound, mixed)
Short-term momentum direction only (up, down, neutral)
A clean, static HUD display
M🜁rketMind LITE also includes a minimal visual state indicator that reflects recent price responsiveness, intended to be observed over time alongside the trader’s own experience.
The goal is to support awareness without influence .
HOW TO USE IT ────────────────────
M🜁rketMind LITE is not a signal generator.
It is designed to remain visible in the background of any chart, offering quiet orientation while traders rely entirely on their own process for analysis and execution.
Common use cases include:
Maintaining session awareness
Preserving context during focused trading periods
Reducing cognitive load while monitoring markets
M🜁rketMind LITE does not evaluate risk, alignment, or opportunity.
It simply shows what is happening.
DESIGN PHILOSOPHY ────────────────────
M🜁rketMind LITE is intentionally minimal.
It includes only essential awareness elements and excludes all interpretive or evaluative logic:
Situational context only
Directional momentum (up / down / neutral)
No diagnostics, confidence, or conviction framing
No process, risk, or quality assessment
Presentation controls only (HUD on/off, size, position)
Nothing is inferred.
Nothing is suggested.
This script shows market state without interpretation.
WHO IT IS FOR ────────────────────
M🜁rketMind LITE is suited for traders who:
Want passive situational awareness
Prefer minimal on-chart information
Already operate with a defined decision process
It is not designed for:
Analytical or diagnostic use
Risk evaluation or context synthesis
Traders seeking guidance or confirmation
IMPORTANT NOTES ────────────────────
M🜁rketMind LITE does not provide financial advice
No system can predict future price behavior
This tool is designed for awareness only
Used appropriately, M🜁rketMind LITE helps traders stay oriented without interference.
Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters) + QHO Spin FlipsINDICATOR NAME
Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters) + QHO Spin Flips
OVERVIEW
This indicator combines two complementary ideas into a single overlay: *this combines my earlier Geometric Mean Indicator with the Quantum Harmonic Oscillator (Overlay) with additional enhancements*
1) Density Zones (GM Crossing Clusters)
A “Density Zone” is detected when price repeatedly crosses a Geometric Mean equilibrium line (GM) within a rolling lookback window. Conceptually, this identifies regions where the market is repeatedly “snapping” across an equilibrium boundary—high churn, high decision pressure, and repeated re-selection of direction.
2) QHO Spin Flips (Regression-Residual σ Breaches)
A “Spin Flip” is detected when price deviates beyond a configurable σ-threshold (κ) from a regression-based equilibrium, using normalized residuals. Conceptually, this marks excursions into extreme states (decoherence / expansion), which often precede a reversion toward equilibrium and/or a regime re-scaling.
These two systems are related but not identical:
- Density Zones identify where equilibrium crossings cluster (a “singularity”/anchor behavior around GM).
- Spin Flips identify when price exceeds statistically extreme displacement from the regression equilibrium (LSR), indicating expansion beyond typical variance.
CORE CONCEPTS AND FORMULAS
SECTION A — GEOMETRIC MEAN EQUILIBRIUM (GM)
We define two moving averages:
(1) MA1_t = SMA(close_t, L1)
(2) MA2_t = SMA(close_t, L2)
We define the equilibrium anchor as the geometric mean of MA1 and MA2:
(3) GM_t = sqrt( MA1_t * MA2_t )
This GM line acts as an equilibrium boundary. Repeated crossings are interpreted as high “equilibrium churn.”
SECTION B — CROSS EVENTS (UP/DOWN)
A “cross event” is registered when the sign of (close - GM) changes:
Define a sign function s_t:
(4) s_t =
+1 if close_t > GM_t
-1 if close_t < GM_t
s_{t-1} if close_t == GM_t (tie-breaker to avoid false flips)
Then define the crossing event indicator:
(5) crossEvent_t = 1 if s_t != s_{t-1}
0 otherwise
Additionally, the indicator plots explicit cross markers:
- Cross Above GM: crossover(close, GM)
- Cross Below GM: crossunder(close, GM)
These provide directional visual cues and match the original Geometric Mean Indicator behavior.
SECTION C — DENSITY MEASURE (CROSSING CLUSTER COUNT)
A Density Zone is based on the number of cross events occurring in the last W bars:
(6) D_t = Σ_{i=0..W-1} crossEvent_{t-i}
This is a “crossing density” score: how many times price has toggled across GM recently.
The script implements this efficiently using a cumulative sum identity:
Let x_t = crossEvent_t.
(7) cumX_t = Σ_{j=0..t} x_j
Then:
(8) D_t = cumX_t - cumX_{t-W} (for t >= W)
cumX_t (for t < W)
SECTION D — DENSITY ZONE TRIGGER
We define a Density Zone state:
(9) isDZ_t = ( D_t >= θ )
where:
- θ (theta) is the user-selected crossing threshold.
Zone edges:
(10) dzStart_t = isDZ_t AND NOT isDZ_{t-1}
(11) dzEnd_t = NOT isDZ_t AND isDZ_{t-1}
SECTION E — DENSITY ZONE BOUNDS
While inside a Density Zone, we track the running high/low to display zone bounds:
(12) dzHi_t = max(dzHi_{t-1}, high_t) if isDZ_t
(13) dzLo_t = min(dzLo_{t-1}, low_t) if isDZ_t
On dzStart:
(14) dzHi_t := high_t
(15) dzLo_t := low_t
Outside zones, bounds are reset to NA.
These bounds visually bracket the “singularity span” (the churn envelope) during each density episode.
SECTION F — QHO EQUILIBRIUM (REGRESSION CENTERLINE)
Define the regression equilibrium (LSR):
(16) m_t = linreg(close_t, L, 0)
This is the “centerline” the QHO system uses as equilibrium.
SECTION G — RESIDUAL AND σ (FIELD WIDTH)
Residual:
(17) r_t = close_t - m_t
Rolling standard deviation of residuals:
(18) σ_t = stdev(r_t, L)
This σ_t is the local volatility/width of the residual field around the regression equilibrium.
SECTION H — NORMALIZED DISPLACEMENT AND SPIN FLIP
Define the standardized displacement:
(19) Y_t = (close_t - m_t) / σ_t
(If σ_t = 0, the script safely treats Y_t = 0.)
Spin Flip trigger uses a user threshold κ:
(20) spinFlip_t = ( |Y_t| > κ )
Directional spin flips:
(21) spinUp_t = ( Y_t > +κ )
(22) spinDn_t = ( Y_t < -κ )
The default κ=3.0 corresponds to “3σ excursions,” which are statistically extreme under a normal residual assumption (even though real markets are not perfectly normal).
SECTION I — QHO BANDS (OPTIONAL VISUALIZATION)
The indicator optionally draws the standard σ-bands around the regression equilibrium:
(23) 1σ bands: m_t ± 1·σ_t
(24) 2σ bands: m_t ± 2·σ_t
(25) 3σ bands: m_t ± 3·σ_t
These provide immediate context for the Spin Flip events.
WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART
1) MA1 / MA2 / GM lines (optional)
- MA1 (blue), MA2 (red), GM (green).
- GM is the equilibrium anchor for Density Zones and cross markers.
2) GM Cross Markers (optional)
- “GM↑” label markers appear on bars where close crosses above GM.
- “GM↓” label markers appear on bars where close crosses below GM.
3) Density Zone Shading (optional)
- Background shading appears while isDZ_t = true.
- This is the period where the crossing density D_t is above θ.
4) Density Zone High/Low Bounds (optional)
- Two lines (dzHi / dzLo) are drawn only while in-zone.
- These bounds bracket the full churn envelope during the density episode.
5) QHO Bands (optional)
- 1σ, 2σ, 3σ shaded zones around regression equilibrium.
- These visualize the current variance field.
6) Regression Equilibrium (LSR Centerline)
- The white centerline is the regression equilibrium m_t.
7) Spin Flip Markers
- A circle is plotted when |Y_t| > κ (beyond your chosen σ-threshold).
- Marker size is user-controlled (tiny → huge).
HOW TO USE IT
Step 1 — Pick the equilibrium anchor (GM)
- L1 and L2 define MA1 and MA2.
- GM = sqrt(MA1 * MA2) becomes your equilibrium boundary.
Typical choices:
- Faster equilibrium: L1=20, L2=50 (default-like).
- Slower equilibrium: L1=50, L2=200 (macro anchor).
Interpretation:
- GM acts like a “center of mass” between two moving averages.
- Crosses show when price flips from one side of equilibrium to the other.
Step 2 — Tune Density Zones (W and θ)
- W controls the time window measured (how far back you count crossings).
- θ controls how many crossings qualify as a “density/singularity episode.”
Guideline:
- Larger W = slower, broader density detection.
- Higher θ = only the most intense churn is labeled as a Density Zone.
Interpretation:
- A Density Zone is not “bullish” or “bearish” by itself.
- It is a condition: repeated equilibrium toggling (high churn / high compression).
- These often precede expansions, but direction is not implied by the zone alone.
Step 3 — Tune the QHO spin flip sensitivity (L and κ)
- L controls regression memory and σ estimation length.
- κ controls how extreme the displacement must be to trigger a spin flip.
Guideline:
- Smaller L = more reactive centerline and σ.
- Larger L = smoother, slower “field” definition.
- κ=3.0 = strong extreme filter.
- κ=2.0 = more frequent flips.
Interpretation:
- Spin flips mark when price exits the “normal” residual field.
- In your model language: a moment of decoherence/expansion that is statistically extreme relative to recent equilibrium.
Step 4 — Read the combined behavior (your key thesis)
A) Density Zone forms (GM churn clusters):
- Market repeatedly crosses equilibrium (GM), compressing into a bounded churn envelope.
- dzHi/dzLo show the envelope range.
B) Expansion occurs:
- Price can release away from the density envelope (up or down).
- If it expands far enough relative to regression equilibrium, a Spin Flip triggers (|Y| > κ).
C) Re-coherence:
- After a spin flip, price often returns toward equilibrium structures:
- toward the regression centerline m_t
- and/or back toward the density envelope (dzHi/dzLo) depending on regime behavior.
- The indicator does not guarantee return, but it highlights the condition where return-to-field is statistically likely in many regimes.
IMPORTANT NOTES / DISCLAIMERS
- This indicator is an analytical overlay. It does not provide financial advice.
- Density Zones are condition states derived from GM crossing frequency; they do not predict direction.
- Spin Flips are statistical excursions based on regression residuals and rolling σ; markets have fat tails and non-stationarity, so σ-based thresholds are contextual, not absolute.
- All parameters (L1, L2, W, θ, L, κ) should be tuned per asset, timeframe, and volatility regime.
PARAMETER SUMMARY
Geometric Mean / Density Zones:
- L1: MA1 length
- L2: MA2 length
- GM_t = sqrt(SMA(L1)*SMA(L2))
- W: crossing-count lookback window
- θ: crossing density threshold
- D_t = Σ crossEvent_{t-i} over W
- isDZ_t = (D_t >= θ)
- dzHi/dzLo track envelope bounds while isDZ is true
QHO / Spin Flips:
- L: regression + residual σ length
- m_t = linreg(close, L, 0)
- r_t = close_t - m_t
- σ_t = stdev(r_t, L)
- Y_t = r_t / σ_t
- spinFlip_t = (|Y_t| > κ)
Visual Controls:
- toggles for GM lines, cross markers, zone shading, bounds, QHO bands
- marker size options for GM crosses and spin flips
ALERTS INCLUDED
- Density Zone START / END
- Spin Flip UP / DOWN
- Cross Above GM / Cross Below GM
SUMMARY
This indicator treats the Geometric Mean as an equilibrium boundary and identifies “Density Zones” when price repeatedly crosses that equilibrium within a rolling window, forming a bounded churn envelope (dzHi/dzLo). It also models a regression-based equilibrium field and triggers “Spin Flips” when price makes statistically extreme σ-excursions from that field. Used together, Density Zones highlight compression/decision regions (equilibrium churn), while Spin Flips highlight extreme expansion states (σ-breaches), allowing the user to visualize how price compresses around equilibrium, releases outward, and often re-stabilizes around equilibrium structures over time.
Shiori TFGI Lite Technical Fear and Greed Index (Open Source)Shiori’s TFGI Lite
Technical Fear & Greed Index (Open Source)
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English — Official Description
Shiori’s TFGI Lite is an open-source Technical Fear & Greed Index designed to help traders and investors understand market emotion, not predict price.
Instead of generating buy or sell signals, this indicator focuses on answering a calmer, more important question:
> Is the market emotionally stretched away from its own historical balance?
TFGI Lite combines three well-known technical dimensions — volatility, price deviation, and momentum — and normalizes them into a single, intuitive 0–100 sentiment scale.
What This Indicator Is
* A market context tool, not a trading signal
* A way to observe emotional extremes and misalignment
* Designed for any asset, any timeframe
* Fully open source, transparent and adjustable
Core Components
* Fear Factor: Short-term vs long-term ATR ratio with logarithmic compression
* Greed Factor: Price Z-score with tanh-based normalization
* Momentum Factor: Classic RSI as emotional momentum
These factors are blended and gently smoothed to form the current sentiment level.
Historical Baseline & Deviation
TFGI Lite introduces a historical baseline concept:
* The baseline represents the market’s own emotional equilibrium
* Deviation measures how far current sentiment has drifted from that equilibrium
This allows the indicator to highlight conditions such as:
* 🔥 Overheated: High sentiment + strong positive deviation
* 💎 Undervalued: Low sentiment + strong negative deviation
* ⚠️ Misaligned: Emotionally extreme, but inconsistent with historical behavior
How to Use (Lite Philosophy)
* Use TFGI Lite as a background compass, not a trigger
* Combine it with price structure, risk management, and your own strategy
* Extreme readings suggest emotional tension, not immediate reversal
> Think of TFGI Lite as market weather — it tells you the climate, not when to open or close the door.
About Parameters & Customization
All parameters in TFGI Lite are fully adjustable. Markets have different personalities — volatility, sentiment range, and emotional extremes vary by asset and timeframe.
You are encouraged to:
* Adjust fear/greed thresholds based on the asset you trade
* Tune smoothing and baseline lengths to match your timeframe
* Treat sentiment levels as relative, not universal absolutes
There is no single “correct” setting — TFGI Lite is designed to adapt to your market, not force the market into a fixed model.
Important Notes
* This is a technical sentiment indicator, not financial advice
* No future performance is implied
* Designed to reduce emotional decision-making, not replace it
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🇹🇼 繁體中文 — 指標說明
Shiori’s TFGI Lite（技術型恐懼與貪婪指數） 是一款開源的市場情緒指標，目的不是預測價格，而是幫助你理解市場當下的「情緒狀態」。
與其問「現在該不該買或賣」，TFGI Lite 更關心的是：
> 市場情緒是否已經偏離了它自己的歷史平衡？
本指標整合三個常見但關鍵的技術面向，並統一轉換為 0–100 的情緒刻度，讓市場狀態一眼可讀。
這個指標是什麼
* 市場情緒與狀態觀察工具（非買賣訊號）
* 用來辨識情緒極端與錯位狀態
* 適用於任何商品與任何週期
* 完全開源，可學習、可調整
核心構成
* 恐懼因子：短期 / 長期 ATR 比例（對數壓縮）
* 貪婪因子：價格 Z-Score（tanh 正規化）
* 動能因子：RSI 作為情緒動量
歷史基準與偏離
TFGI Lite 引入「歷史情緒基準」的概念：
* 基準代表市場長期的情緒平衡
* 偏離值顯示當前情緒與自身歷史的距離
因此可以辨識：
* 🔥 過熱（高情緒 + 正向偏離）
* 💎 低估（低情緒 + 負向偏離）
* ⚠️ 錯位（情緒極端，但不符合歷史行為）
使用建議（Lite 精神）
* 將 TFGI Lite 作為「背景雷達」，而非進出場依據
* 搭配價格結構、風險控管與個人策略
* 情緒極端不等於立刻反轉
> 你可以把它想像成市場的天氣預報，而不是交易指令。
參數調整與個人化說明
本指標中的所有參數皆可調整。不同市場、不同商品，其波動特性與情緒區間並不相同。
建議你：
* 依標的特性自行調整恐懼 / 貪婪門檻
* 依交易週期調整平滑與基準長度
* 將情緒數值視為「相對狀態」，而非固定答案
TFGI Lite 的設計初衷，是讓你定義市場，而不是被單一參數綁住。
溫馨提示
如果你在調整指標參數時遇到不熟悉的項目，請點擊參數旁邊的 「!」圖示，每個設定都有清楚的說明。
本指標設計為可慢慢探索，請依自己的節奏理解市場狀態。
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🇯🇵 日本語 — インジケーター説明
Shiori’s TFGI Lite は、価格を予測するための指標ではなく、
市場の「感情状態」を可視化するためのオープンソース指標です。
この指標が問いかけるのは、
> 現在の市場感情は、過去のバランスからどれだけ乖離しているのか？
という一点です。
特徴
* 売買シグナルではありません
* 市場心理の極端さやズレを観察するためのツールです
* すべての銘柄・時間軸に対応
* 学習・調整可能なオープンソース
構成要素
* 恐怖要素：ATR 比率（対数圧縮）
* 強欲要素：価格 Z スコア（tanh 正規化）
* モメンタム：RSI
ベースラインと乖離
市場自身の感情的な基準点と、
現在の感情との距離を測定します。
過熱・割安・感情のズレを視覚的に把握できます。
パラメータ調整について
TFGI Lite のすべてのパラメータは調整可能です。市場ごとにボラティリティや感情の振れ幅は異なります。
* 恐怖・強欲の閾値は銘柄に応じて調整してください
* 時間軸に合わせて平滑化やベースライン期間を変更できます
* 数値は絶対値ではなく、相対的な感情状態として捉えてください
この指標は、市場に合わせて柔軟に使うことを前提に設計されています。
フレンドリーヒント
入力項目で分からない設定がある場合は、横に表示されている 「!」アイコン をクリックしてください。各パラメータには分かりやすい説明が用意されています。
このインジケーターは、落ち着いて市場の状態を理解するためのものです。
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🇰🇷 한국어 — 지표 설명
Shiori’s TFGI Lite는 매수·매도 신호를 제공하는 지표가 아니라,
시장 감정의 상태를 이해하기 위한 기술적 심리 지표입니다.
이 지표의 핵심 질문은 다음과 같습니다.
> 현재 시장 감정은 과거의 균형 상태에서 얼마나 벗어나 있는가?
특징
* 거래 신호 아님
* 시장 심리의 과열·저평가·불일치를 관찰
* 모든 자산, 모든 타임프레임 지원
* 오픈소스 기반
구성 요소
* 공포 요인: ATR 비율 (로그 압축)
* 탐욕 요인: Z-Score (tanh 정규화)
* 모멘텀: RSI
활용 방법
TFGI Lite는 배경 지표로 사용하세요.
가격 구조와 리스크 관리와 함께 사용할 때 가장 효과적입니다.
파라미터 조정 안내
TFGI Lite의 모든 설정 값은 사용자가 직접 조정할 수 있습니다. 자산마다 변동성과 감정 범위는 서로 다릅니다.
* 공포 / 탐욕 기준값은 종목 특성에 맞게 조정하세요
* 타임프레임에 따라 스무딩 및 기준 기간을 변경할 수 있습니다
* 감정 수치는 절대적인 값이 아닌 상대적 상태로 해석하세요
이 지표는 하나의 정답을 강요하지 않고, 시장에 맞춰 적응하도록 설계되었습니다.
친절한 안내
설정 값이 익숙하지 않다면, 항목 옆에 있는 "!" 아이콘을 클릭해 보세요. 각 입력값마다 설명이 제공됩니다.
이 지표는 천천히 시장의 맥락을 이해하도록 설계되었습니다.
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Educational purpose only. Not financial advice.
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#FearAndGreed #MarketSentiment #TradingPsychology #TechnicalAnalysis #OpenSourceIndicator #Volatility #RSI #ATR #ZScore #MultiAsset #TradingView #Shiori
FF calculation Saptarshi ChatterjeeForward factor (in options contexts) measures implied volatility (IV) for a future period between two expirations, like from 30 DTE (days to expiry) front-month to 60 DTE back-month options.
This indicator calculates the FORWARD FACTOR(FF) using 2 IVs of 2 DTEs.
+ve value means front DTE is rich in premium and back expiry is cheap.
-ve value means front DTE IV is cheap and 2nd DTE is expensive
we can use this term structure disbalance to trade calendar spreads with edge.
FAIR VALUE CEDEARSFair Value CEDEARS y ETFs
Important: load together with the CEDEARdata library.
Returns the “Fair Value” of CEDEAR and CEDEAR-based ETF prices traded on ByMA, using as a reference the price of the underlying ordinary share or ETF traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ. It multiplies the NYSE/NASDAQ price by the CEDEAR or ETF conversion ratio and converts the currency to ARS or Dólar MEP using the exchange rate implied by the AL30/AL30C ratio for tickers quoted in ARS (e.g., AAPL) and AL30D/AL30C for tickers quoted in Dólar MEP (e.g., AAPLD).
If the CEDEAR or ETF quote is higher than Fair Value, it highlights the difference in red; if it is lower, it highlights it in green. If any of the markets is closed or in an auction period, it notifies the user and changes the background color.
By default, the CEDEAR or ETF quote used is the last price, but the user may choose to use the BID or OFFER instead. This allows CEDEAR and ETF buyers to compare Fair Value against the OFFER, while sellers may prefer to measure Fair Value against the BID of the local instrument.
BCBA:AAPL
BCBA:AAPLD
NASDAQ:AAPL
BCBA:SPY
BCBA:TSLA
BCBA:TSLAD
CEDEARS
ETFs
ByMA
CISD**CISD – Continuous Implied Structure Displacement (Body-Based Version)**
CISD displays structure levels derived from a simple sequence:
1. A valid pullback (based on body closes only)
2. Followed by a displacement (a body-based break in the opposite direction)
When these two conditions occur, the script prints a CISD level at the pullback’s reference price.
Each CISD level extends forward until price closes through it using body logic only.
---
### How this version works
**1. Pullback Detection (Body-Only)**
A pullback is recognized when a candle’s body meaningfully retraces the previous candle’s body.
Tiny candles are filtered out, reducing noise and improving level quality.
**2. CISD Formation**
After a valid pullback, if price breaks structure in the opposite direction using body highs/lows only:
- A **Bullish CISD** level is created from a bearish pullback
- A **Bearish CISD** level is created from a bullish pullback
**3. CISD Completion**
When a CISD level is violated by a full body close beyond the level, the CISD is marked completed and a new opposite CISD becomes eligible.
**4. Visual Output**
- Clean horizontal CISD levels
- Single active level per direction (unless extended manually)
- Labels marked “CISD” for clarity
---
### What this indicator is *not*
This tool does **not** generate trade signals or provide financial advice.
It is a visual mechanism for observing how price reacts to pullback-based structural shifts using body logic only.
---
### Intended Use
CISD can help users:
- Track transitions in short-term structure
- Identify when pullbacks lead to meaningful displacement
- Observe reaction points derived strictly from body behavior (ignoring wicks)
The logic is minimalistic and designed for clean, uncluttered structure observation.
Volatility Regime NavigatorA guide to understanding VIX, VVIX, VIX9D, VVIX/VIX, and the Composite Risk Score
1. Purpose of the Indicator
This dashboard summarizes short-term market volatility conditions using four core volatility metrics.
It produces:
• Individual readings
• A combined Regime classification
• A Composite Risk Score (0–100)
• A simplified Risk Bucket (Bullish → Stress)
Use this to evaluate market fragility, drift potential, tail-risk, and overall risk-on/off conditions.
This is especially useful for intraday ES/NQ trading, expected-move context, and understanding when breakouts or fades have edge.
2. The Four Core Volatility Inputs
(1) VIX — Baseline Equity Volatility
• < 16: Complacent (easy drift-up, but watch for fragility)
• 16–22: Healthy, normal volatility → ideal trading conditions
• > 22: Stress rising
• > 26: Tail-risk / risk-off environment
(2) VIX9D — Short-Term Event Vol
Measures 9-day implied volatility. Reacts to immediate news/events.
• < 14: Strongly bullish (drift regime)
• 14–17: Bullish to neutral
• 17–20: Event risk building
• > 20: Short-term stress / caution
(3) VVIX — Volatility of VIX (fragility index)
Tracks volatility of volatility.
• < 100: “Bullish, Bullish” — very low fragility
• 100–120: Normal
• 120–140: Fragile
• > 140: Stress, hedging pressure
(4) VVIX/VIX Ratio — Microstructure Risk-On/Risk-Off
One of the most sensitive indicators of market confidence.
• 5.0–6.5: Strongest “normal/bullish” zone
• < 5.0: Bottom-stalking / fear regime
• > 6.5: Complacency → vulnerable to reversals
• > 7.5: Fragile / top-risk
3. Composite Risk Score (0–100)
The dashboard converts all four inputs into a single score.
Score Interpretation
• 80–100 → Bullish - Drift regime. Shallow pullbacks. Upside favored.
• 60–79 → Normal - Healthy tape. Balanced two-way trading.
• 40–59 → Fragile - Choppy, failed breakouts, thinner liquidity.
• 20–39 → Risk-Off - Downside tails active. Favor fades and defensive behavior.
• < 20 → Stress - Crisis or event-driven tape. Avoid longs.
Score updates every bar.
4. Regime Label
Independent of the composite score, the script provides a Regime classification based on combinations of VIX + VVIX/VIX:
• Bullish+ → Buying is easy, tape lifts passively
• Normal → Cleanest and most tradable conditions
• Complacent → Top-risk; be careful chasing upside
• Mixed → Signals conflict; chop potential
• Bottom Stalk → High VIX, low VVIX/VIX (capitulation signatures)
A trailing “+” or “*” indicates additional bullish or caution overlays from VIX9D/VVIX.
5. How to Use the Dashboard in Trading
When Bullish (Score ≥ 80):
• Expect drift-up behavior
• Downside limited unless catalyst hits
• Structure favors breakouts and trend continuation
• Mean reversion trades have lower expectancy
When Normal (Score 60–79):
• The “playbook regime”
• Breakouts and mean reversion both valid
• Best overall trading environment
When Fragile (Score 40–59):
• Expect chop
• Breakouts fail
• Take quicker profits
• Avoid overleveraged directional bets
When Risk-Off (20–39):
• Favor fades of strength
• Downside tails activate
• Trend-following short setups gain edge
• Respect volatility bands
When Stress (<20):
• Avoid long exposure
• Do not chase dips
• Expect violent, news-sensitive behavior
• Position sizing becomes critical
6. Quick Summary
• VIX = weather
• VIX9D = short-term storm radar
• VVIX = foundation stability
• VVIX/VIX = confidence vs fragility
• Composite Score = overall regime health
• Risk Bucket = simple “what do I do?” label
This dashboard gives traders a high-confidence, low-noise view of equity volatility conditions in real time.
NIFTY Weekly Option Seller DirectionalHere’s a straight description you can paste into the TradingView “Description” box and tweak if needed:
---
### NIFTY Weekly Option Seller – Regime + Score + Management (Single TF)
This indicator is built for **weekly option sellers** (primarily NIFTY) who want a **structured regime + scoring framework** to decide:
* Whether to trade **Iron Condor (IC)**, **Put Credit Spread (PCS)** or **Call Credit Spread (CCS)**
* How strong that regime is on the current timeframe (score 0–5)
* When to **DEFEND** existing positions and when to **HARVEST** profits
> **Note:** This is a **single timeframe** tool. The original system uses it on **4H and 1D separately**, then combines scores manually (e.g., using `min(4H, 1D)` for conviction and lot sizing).
---
## Core logic
The script classifies the market into 3 regimes:
* **IC (Iron Condor)** – range/mean-reversion conditions
* **PCS (Put Credit Spread)** – bullish/trend-up conditions
* **CCS (Call Credit Spread)** – bearish/trend-down conditions
For each regime, it builds a **0–5 score** using:
* **EMA stack (8/13/34)** – trend structure
* **ADX (custom DMI-based)** – trend strength vs range
* **Previous-day CPR** – in CPR vs break above/below
* **VWAP (session)** – near/far value
* **Camarilla H3/L3** – for IC context
* **RSI (14)** – used as a **brake**, not a primary signal
* **Daily trend / Daily ADX** – used as **hard gates**, not double-counted as extra points
Then:
* Scores for PCS / CCS / IC are **cross-penalised** (they pull each other down if conflicting)
* Final scores are **smoothed** (current + previous bar) to avoid jumpy signals
The **background colour** shows the current regime and conviction:
* Blue = IC
* Green = PCS
* Red = CCS
* Stronger tint = higher regime score
---
## Scoring details (per timeframe)
**PCS (uptrend, bullish credit spreads)**
* +2 if EMA(8) > EMA(13) > EMA(34)
* +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND
* +1 if close > CPR High
* +1 if close > VWAP
* RSI brake:
* If RSI < 50 → PCS capped at 2
* If RSI > 75 → PCS capped at 3
* Daily gating:
* If daily EMA stack is **not** uptrend → PCS capped at 2
**CCS (downtrend, bearish credit spreads)**
* +2 if EMA(8) < EMA(13) < EMA(34)
* +1 if ADX > ADX_TREND
* +1 if close < CPR Low
* +1 if close < VWAP
* RSI brake:
* If RSI > 50 → CCS capped at 2
* If RSI < 25 → CCS capped at 3
* Daily gating:
* If daily EMA stack is **not** downtrend → CCS capped at 2
**IC (range / mean-reversion)**
* +2 if ADX < ADX_RANGE (low trend)
* +1 if close inside CPR
* +1 if near VWAP
* +0.5 if inside Camarilla H3–L3
* +1 if daily ADX < ADX_RANGE (daily also range-like)
* +0.5 if RSI between 45 and 55 (classic balance zone)
* Daily gating:
* If daily ADX ≥ ADX_TREND → IC capped at 2 (no “strong IC” in strong trends)
**Cross-penalty & smoothing**
* Each regime’s raw score is reduced by **0.5 × max(other two scores)**
* Final IC / PCS / CCS scores are then **smoothed** with previous bar
* Scores are always clipped to ** **
---
## Regime selection
* If one regime has the highest score → that regime is selected.
* If there is a tie or close scores:
* When ADX is high, trend regimes (PCS/CCS) are preferred in the direction of the EMA stack.
* When ADX is low, IC is preferred.
The selected regime’s score is used for:
* Background colour intensity
* Minimum score gate for alerts
* Display in the info panel
---
## DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME alerts
The script also defines **management signals** using ATR-based buffers and Camarilla breaks:
* **DEFEND**
* Price moving too close to short strikes (PCS/CCS/IC) relative to ATR, or
* Trend breaks through Camarilla with ADX strong
→ Suggests rolling away / widening / converting to reduce risk.
* **HARVEST**
* Price has moved far enough from your short strikes (in ATR multiples) and market is still range-compatible
→ Suggests booking profits / rolling closer / reducing risk.
* **REGIME CHANGED**
* Regime flips (IC ↔ PCS/CCS) with cooldown and minimum score gate
→ Suggests switching playbook (range vs trend) for new entries.
Each of these has a plotshape label plus an `alertcondition()` for TradingView alerts.
---
## UI / Panel
The **top-right panel** (optional) shows:
* Strategy + final regime score (IC / PCS / CCS, x/5)
* ADX / RSI values
* CPR status (Narrow / Normal / Wide + %)
* EMA Stack (Up / Down / Mixed) and EMA tightness
* VWAP proximity (Near / Away)
* Final **IC / PCS / CCS** scores (for this timeframe)
* H3/L3, H4/L4, CPR Low/High and VWAP levels (rounded)
These values are meant to be **read quickly at the decision time** (e.g. near the close of the 4H bar or daily bar).
---
## Intended workflow
1. Run the script on **4H** and **1D** charts separately.
2. For each timeframe, read the panel’s **IC / PCS / CCS scores** and regime.
3. Decide:
* Final regime (IC vs PCS vs CCS)
* Combined score (e.g. `AlignScore = min(Score_4H, Score_1D)`)
4. Map that combined score to **your own lot-size buckets** and trade rules.
5. During the life of the position, use **DEFEND / HARVEST / REGIME** alerts to adjust.
The script does **not** auto-calculate lot size or P&L. It focuses on giving a structured, consistent **market regime + strength + levels + management** layer for weekly option selling.
---
## Disclaimer
This is a discretionary **decision-support tool**, not a guarantee of profit or a replacement for risk management.
No performance is implied or promised. Always size positions and manage risk according to your own capital, rules, and regulations.
Sector Analysis [SS]Introducing the most powerful sector analysis tool/indicator available, to date, in Pine!
This is a whopper indicator, so be sure to read carefully to ensure you understand its applications and uses!
First of all, because this is a whopper, let's go over the key functional points of the indicator.
The indicator compares the 11 main sector ETFs against whichever ticker you are looking at.
The functions include the following:
Ability to pull technicals from the sectors, such as RSI, Stochastic and Z-Score;
Ability to look at the correlation of the sector ETF to the current ticker you are looking at.
Ability to calculate the R2 value between the ticker you are looking at and each sector.
The ability to run a Two Tailed T-Test against the log returns of the Ticker of interest and the Sector (to analyze statistically significant returns between sectors/tickers).
The ability to analyze the distribution of returns across all sector ETFs.
The ability to pull buying and selling volume across all sector ETFs.
The ability to create an integrated moving average using a sector ETF to predict the expected close range of a ticker of interest.
These are the highlight functions. Below, I will go more into them, what they mean and how to use them.
Pulling Technicals
This is pretty straight forward. You can pull technicals, such as RSI, Stochastic and Z-Score from all the sector ETFs and view them in a table.
See below for the example:
Pulling Correlation
In order to see which sector your ticker of interest follows more closely, we need to look first at correlation and then at R2.
The correlation will look at the immediate relationship over a specified time. A highly positive value, indicates a strong, symbiotic relationship, which the sector and the ticker follow each other. This would be represented by a correlation of 0.8 or higher.
A strong negative correlation, such as -0.8 or lower, indicates that the sector and the ticker are completely opposite. When one goes up, the other goes down and vice versa.
You can adjust your correlation assessment length directly in the settings menu:
If you want to use a sector ETF to find the expected range for a ticker of interest, it is important to locate the highest, POSITIVE, correlation value. Here are the results for MSFT at a correlation lookback of 200:
In this example, we can see the best relationship is with the ETF XLK.
Analysis of R2
R2 is an important metric. It essentially measures how much of the variance between 2 tickers are explained by a simple, linear relationship.
A high R2 means that a huge degree of variance can be explained between the 2 tickers. A low R2 means that it cannot and that the 2 tickers are likely not integrated or closely related.
In general, if you want to use the sector ETF to find the mean and trading range and identify over-valuation/over-extension and under-extension statistically, you need to see both a high correlation and a high R-Squared. These 2 metrics should be analyzed together.
Let's take a look at MSFT:
Here, despite the correlation implying that XLK was the ticker we should use to analyze, when we look at the R Squared, we see actually, we should be using XLI.
XLI has a strong positive relationship with MSFT, albeit a bit less than XLK, but the R2 is solid, > 0.9, indicating the XLI explains much of MSFT's variance.
Two Tailed T-Test
A two tailed T-test analyzes whether there is a statistically significant difference between 2 different groups, or in our case, tickers.
The T-Test is conducted on the log returns of the ticker of interest and the sector. You then can see the P value results, whether it is significant or not. Let's look at MSFT again:
Looking at this, we can see there is no statistically significant difference in returns between MSFT and any of the sectors.
We can also see the SMA of the log returns for more detailed comparison.
If we were to observe a significant finding on the T-Test metrics, this would indicate that one sector either outperforms or underperforms your ticker to a statistically significant degree! If you stumble upon this, you would check the average log returns to compare against the average returns of your ticker of interest, to see whether there is better performance or worse performance from the sector ETF vs. your ticker of interest.
Analyzing the Distribution
The indicator will also analyze the distribution of returns.
This is an interesting option as it can help you ascertain risk. Normally distributed returns imply mean reverting behavviour. Deviations from that imply trending behaviour with higher risk expectancy. If we look at the distribution statistics currently over the last 200 trading days, here are the results:
Here, we can see all show signs of trending, as none of the returns are normally distributed. The highest risk sectors are XLK and XLY.
Why are they the highest risk?
Because the indicator has found a heavy right tailed distribution, indicated sudden and erratic mean reversion/losses are possible.
Creating an MA
Now for the big bonus of the indicator!
The indicator can actually create a regression based range from closely correlated sectors, so you can see, in sectors that are strongly correlated to your ticker, whether your ticker is over-bought, oversold or has mean reverted.
Let's look at MSFT using XLI, our previously identified sector with a high correlation and high R2 value:
The results are pretty impressive.
You can see that MSFT has rode the mean of the sector on the daily timeframe for quite some time. Each time it over extended itself above the sector implied range, it mean reverted.
Currently, if you were to trade based on Pairs or statistics, MSFT is no trade as it is currently trading at its sector mean.
If you are a visual person, you can have the indicator plot the mean reversion points directly:
Green represents a bullish mean reversion and red a bearish mean reversion.
Concluding Remarks
If you like pair trading, following the link between sectors and tickers or want a more objective way to determine whether a ticker is over-bought or oversold, this indicator can help you.
In addition to doing this, the indicator can provide risk insights into different sectors by looking at the distribution, as well as identify under-performing sectors or tickers.
It can also shed light on sectors that may be technically over-bought or oversold by looking at Z-Score, stochastics and RSI.
Its a whopper and I really hope you find it helpful and useful!
Thanks everyone for reading and checking this out!
Safe trades!
TradeVision Pro - Multi-Factor Analysis System═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
TRADEVISION PRO - MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS SYSTEM
Created by Zakaria Safri
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A comprehensive technical analysis tool combining multiple factors for
signal generation, trend analysis, and dynamic risk management visualization.
Designed for educational purposes to study multi-factor convergence trading
strategies across all markets and timeframes.
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
This indicator is provided for EDUCATIONAL and INFORMATIONAL purposes only.
It does NOT constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves
substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consult a
financial advisor before making trading decisions.
🎯 KEY FEATURES
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
✅ MULTI-FACTOR SIGNAL GENERATION
• Price Volume Trend (PVT) analysis
• Rate of Change (ROC) momentum confirmation
• Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) trend filter
• Simple Moving Average (SMA) price smoothing
• Signals only when all factors align
✅ DYNAMIC RISK VISUALIZATION (Educational Only)
• ATR-based stop loss calculation
• Risk-reward based take profit levels (1-5 targets)
• Visual lines and labels showing entry, SL, and TPs
• Automatically adapts to market volatility
• ⚠️ VISUAL REFERENCE ONLY - Does not execute trades
✅ SUPPORT & RESISTANCE DETECTION
• Automatic pivot-based level identification
• Red dashed lines for resistance zones
• Green dashed lines for support areas
• Helps identify key price levels
✅ VWMA TREND BANDS
• Volume-weighted moving average with standard deviation
• Color-changing bands (Green = Uptrend, Red = Downtrend)
• Filled band area for easy visualization
• Volume-confirmed trend strength
✅ TREND DETECTION SYSTEM
• Counting-based trend confirmation
• Three states: Up Trend, Down Trend, Ranging
• Requires threshold of consecutive bars
• Independent trend validation
✅ PRICE RANGE VISUALIZATION
• High/Low range lines showing market structure
• Filled area highlighting price volatility
• Helps identify breakout zones
✅ COMPREHENSIVE INFO TABLE
• Real-time trend status
• Last signal type (BUY/SELL)
• Entry price display
• Stop loss level
• All active take profit levels
• Clean, professional layout
✅ OPTIONAL FEATURES
• Bar coloring by trend direction
• Customizable alert notifications
• Toggle visibility for all components
• Fully configurable parameters
📊 HOW IT WORKS
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SIGNAL METHODOLOGY:
BUY SIGNAL generates when ALL conditions are met:
• Smoothed price > Moving Average (upward price trend)
• PVT > PVT Average (volume supporting uptrend)
• ROC > 0 (positive momentum)
• Close > VWMA (above volume-weighted average)
SELL SIGNAL generates when ALL conditions are met:
• Smoothed price < Moving Average (downward price trend)
• PVT < PVT Average (volume supporting downtrend)
• ROC < 0 (negative momentum)
• Close < VWMA (below volume-weighted average)
This multi-factor approach filters out weak signals and waits for
strong convergence before generating alerts.
RISK CALCULATION:
Stop Loss = Entry ± (ATR × SL Multiplier)
• Uses Average True Range for volatility measurement
• Automatically adjusts to market conditions
Take Profit Levels = Entry ± (Risk Distance × TP Multiplier × Level)
• Risk Distance = |Entry - Stop Loss|
• Creates risk-reward based targets
• Example: TP Multiplier 1.0 = 1:1, 2:2, 3:3 risk-reward
⚠️ NOTE: All risk levels are VISUAL REFERENCES for educational study.
They do not execute trades automatically.
⚙️ SETTINGS GUIDE
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SIGNAL SETTINGS:
• Signal Length (14): Main calculation period for averages
• Smooth Length (8): Price data smoothing period
• PVT Length (14): Price Volume Trend calculation period
• ROC Length (9): Rate of Change momentum period
RISK MANAGEMENT (Visual Only):
• ATR Length (14): Volatility measurement lookback
• SL Multiplier (2.2): Stop loss distance (× ATR)
• TP Multiplier (1.0): Risk-reward ratio per TP level
• TP Levels (1-5): Number of take profit targets to display
• Show TP/SL Lines: Toggle visual reference lines
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE:
• Pivot Lookback (10): Sensitivity for S/R detection
• Show SR: Toggle support/resistance lines
VWMA BANDS:
• VWMA Length (20): Volume-weighted average period
• Show Bands: Toggle band visibility
TREND DETECTION:
• Trend Threshold (5): Consecutive bars required for trend
PRICE LINES:
• Period (20): High/low calculation lookback
• Show: Toggle price range visualization
DISPLAY OPTIONS:
• Signals: Show/hide BUY/SELL labels
• Table: Show/hide information panel
• Color Bars: Enable trend-based bar coloring
ALERTS:
• Enable: Activate alert notifications for signals
💡 USAGE INSTRUCTIONS
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RECOMMENDED APPROACH:
• Works on all timeframes (1m to Monthly)
• Suitable for all markets (Stocks, Forex, Crypto, etc.)
• Best used with additional analysis and confirmation
• Always practice proper risk management
ENTRY STRATEGY:
1. Wait for BUY or SELL signal to appear
2. Check trend table for trend confirmation
3. Verify VWMA band color matches signal direction
4. Look for nearby support/resistance confluence
5. Consider entering on next candle open
6. Use visual SL level for risk management
EXIT STRATEGY:
1. Use TP levels as potential exit zones
2. Consider scaling out at multiple TP levels
3. Exit on opposite signal
4. Adjust stops as trade progresses
5. Account for spread and slippage
TREND TRADING:
• "Up Trend" → Focus on BUY signals
• "Down Trend" → Focus on SELL signals
• "Ranging" → Wait for clear trend or use range strategies
🎨 VISUAL ELEMENTS
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• GREEN VWMA BANDS → Bullish trend indication
• RED VWMA BANDS → Bearish trend indication
• ORANGE DASHED LINE → Entry price reference
• RED SOLID LINE → Stop loss level
• GREEN DOTTED LINES → Take profit targets
• RED DASHED LINES → Resistance levels
• GREEN DASHED LINES → Support levels
• GREY FILLED AREA → Price high/low range
• GREEN BUY LABEL → Long signal
• RED SELL LABEL → Short signal
• BLUE INFO TABLE → Current trade details
• GREEN/RED BARS → Trend direction (optional)
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
RISK WARNING:
• Trading involves substantial risk of loss
• You can lose more than your initial investment
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• No indicator is 100% accurate
• Always use proper position sizing
• Never risk more than you can afford to lose
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE:
• This tool is for learning and research
• Not a complete trading system
• Should be combined with other analysis
• Requires interpretation and context
• Test thoroughly before live use
• Consider consulting a financial advisor
TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS:
• Signals lag price action (all indicators lag)
• False signals occur in choppy markets
• Works better in trending conditions
• Support/resistance levels are approximate
• TP/SL levels are suggestions, not guarantees
📚 METHODOLOGY
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This indicator combines established technical analysis concepts:
• Price Volume Trend (PVT): Volume-weighted price momentum
• Rate of Change (ROC): Momentum measurement
• Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Trend identification
• Average True Range (ATR): Volatility measurement (J. Welles Wilder)
• Pivot Points: Support/resistance detection
All methods are based on publicly available technical analysis
principles. No proprietary or "secret" algorithms are used.
⚖️ FULL DISCLAIMER
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
LIABILITY:
The creator (Zakaria Safri) assumes NO liability for:
• Trading losses or damages of any kind
• Loss of capital or profits
• Incorrect signal interpretation
• Technical issues, bugs, or errors
• Any consequences of using this tool
USER RESPONSIBILITY:
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that:
• You are solely responsible for your trading decisions
• You understand the substantial risks involved
• You will not hold the creator liable for losses
• You will conduct your own research and analysis
• You may consult a licensed financial professional
• You are using this tool entirely at your own risk
AS-IS PROVISION:
This indicator is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind,
express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement.
The creator is not a registered investment advisor, financial planner,
or broker-dealer. This tool is not approved or endorsed by any
financial authority.
📞 ABOUT THE CREATOR
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Created by: Zakaria Safri
Specialization: Technical analysis indicator development
Focus: Multi-factor analysis, risk visualization, trend detection
This is an educational tool designed to demonstrate technical
analysis concepts and multi-factor signal generation methods.
📋 VERSION INFO
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Version: 1.0
Platform: TradingView Pine Script v5
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0
Creator: Zakaria Safri
Year: 2024
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Study Carefully, Trade Wisely, Manage Risk Properly
TradeVision Pro - Educational Trading Tool
Created by Zakaria Safri
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First-Move-Wrong Toolkit [CHE] First-Move-Wrong Toolkit — Session-bound sweep rejection with structure confirmation
Summary
This indicator marks potential “first move wrong” reversals during a defined trading session. It looks for a quick sweep beyond the prior day high or low, or the opening range high or low, followed by rejection and a basic structure confirmation. Optional rules require a retest and a VWAP reclaim in the direction of the trade idea. The script renders session levels as right-extended lines, signals as labels, optional SL/TP guide lines for visualization, and background tints during sweep events. Pivots are confirmed using swing width, which reduces repaint risk compared to live swings.
Motivation: Why this design?
Intraday reversals often start with a liquidity sweep around obvious highs or lows. Acting on the sweep alone can be noisy, while waiting for structure break and a retest can be slow. This tool balances both by checking a sweep and rejection at session-relevant levels, then requiring a simple structure cue and, optionally, a retest and a VWAP filter. The goal is a clear, rule-based signal layer that is easy to audit on chart without hidden state.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline reference: Simple sweep detectors or basic CHOCH markers that ignore session context and liquidity anchors.
Architecture differences:
Session-aware opening range tracking that finalizes after the chosen minutes from session start.
Daily previous high and low pulled without lookahead, then extended forward as visual anchors.
Confirmed pivot highs and lows to avoid repaint from live, unconfirmed swings.
Optional retest rule using crossover or crossunder at the trigger level.
Optional VWAP filter to demand reclaim in the intended direction.
Global label cooldown to prevent clusters of signals.
Practical effect: Fewer one-off flips around noisy levels, clearer alignment with session structure, and compact visual feedback through lines, labels, and tints.
How it works (technical)
Levels: During the defined session, the script builds an opening range high and low until the configured minute mark after session start, then freezes those levels for the day. It also fetches the previous day high and low from the daily timeframe without lookahead and extends them forward.
Sweep and rejection: A sweep is defined as price moving beyond a target level and then rejecting back inside on the same bar. The script checks this condition separately for highs and lows against opening range and previous-day levels.
Structure validation: Confirmed pivot highs and lows are computed using a symmetric swing width. A bearish idea requires a prior sweep of a high plus a break through the last confirmed swing low. A bullish idea requires a prior sweep of a low plus a break through the last confirmed swing high.
Optional retest: If enabled, a bearish signal needs a cross under the bearish trigger level; a bullish signal needs a cross over the bullish trigger level.
VWAP filter (optional): The script requires a reclaim of VWAP in the intended direction when enabled.
State handling: Opening range values, previous-day lines, and the label cooldown timestamp are stored in persistent variables. Lines are created once and updated each bar to extend forward.
Repaint considerations: Pivots confirm only after the specified swing width, reducing repaint. The daily level request is performed without lookahead. Signals use closed-bar checks implied by crossover and crossunder logic.
Parameter Guide
Session (local) — Defines the active trading window. Default nine to seventeen. Narrower windows focus on the main session drive.
Opening Range (min) — Minutes from session start to finalize OR levels. Default fifteen. Shorter values react faster; longer values stabilize levels.
Use PrevDay H/L levels — Toggle previous-day anchors. On by default.
Use OR H/L levels — Toggle opening range anchors. On by default.
Equal H/L tolerance (ticks) — Intended tolerance for equal highs or lows. Default one. (Unknown/Optional) in current signals.
Swing width — Bars on both sides for confirmed pivots. Default two. Larger values reduce noise but confirm later.
Require CHOCH after sweep — Enforces structure break after a sweep. On by default.
Prefer retest entries — Requires crossover or crossunder of the trigger level. On by default.
VWAP filter — Demands a reclaim of VWAP in signal direction. Off by default.
TP in R (guide) — Multiplier for visual TP guides. Default one. Visualization only.
Show levels / Show signals / Show R-guides — Rendering toggles. R-guides are visual aids, not orders.
Label cooldown (bars) — Minimum bars between labels. Default five. Higher values reduce clusters.
Palette inputs — Colors and transparencies for levels, labels, VWAP, and tints.
Reading & Interpretation
Lines: Dotted lines represent opening range high and low after the OR window completes. Dashed lines represent previous-day high and low.
Signals: “Long” labels appear after a low-side sweep with rejection and structure confirmation, subject to optional retest and VWAP rules. “Short” labels mirror this on the high side.
Background tints: Red-tinted bars indicate a high-side sweep and rejection. Green-tinted bars indicate a low-side sweep and rejection.
R-guides: Circles display a visual stop level at the bar extreme and a target guide based on the selected multiple. They are informational only.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Session reversal scans: During the first hour, watch for sweeps around previous-day or opening range levels, then wait for structure confirmation and optional retest.
Trend following with filters: Combine signals with higher-timeframe structure or a moving average regime check. Ignore signals against the dominant regime.
Exits and stops: Use the visual stop as a reference near the sweep extreme; adapt the target guide to volatility and market conditions.
Multi-asset / Multi-TF: Works on intraday timeframes for liquid futures, indices, forex, and large-cap equities. Start with default settings and adjust swing width and OR minutes to instrument volatility.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: Pivots confirm after the swing window completes. Signals occur only when conditions are met on closed bars.
security()/HTF: Daily previous-day levels are requested without lookahead to reduce repaint.
Resources: Uses persistent variables and line updates per bar; no heavy loops or arrays.
Known limits: Signals can arrive later when swing width is large. Gaps around session boundaries may distort OR levels. VWAP behavior may vary with partial sessions or illiquid assets.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Starting point: Session nine to seventeen, opening range fifteen minutes, swing width two, CHOCH required, retest on, VWAP off, cooldown five bars.
Too many flips: Increase swing width, enable VWAP filter, or raise label cooldown.
Too sluggish: Reduce swing width or shorten the opening range window.
Too many session-level hits: Disable either previous-day levels or opening range levels to simplify context.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a session-aware visualization and signal layer focused on sweep-plus-structure behavior. It is not a complete trading system and does not manage orders, risk, or portfolio exposure. Use it with market structure, risk limits, and execution rules that fit your process.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Market Regime IndexThe Market Regime Index is a top-down macro regime nowcasting tool that offers a consolidated view of the market’s risk appetite. It tracks 32 of the world’s most influential markets across asset classes to determine investor sentiment by applying trend-following signals to each independent asset. It features adjustable parameters and a built-in alert system that notifies investors when conditions transition between Risk-On and Risk-Off regimes. The selected markets are grouped into equities (7), fixed income (9), currencies (7), commodities (5), and derivatives (4):
Equities = S&P 500 E-mini Index Futures, Nasdaq-100 E-mini Index Futures, Russell 2000 E-mini Index Futures, STOXX Europe 600 Index Futures, Nikkei 225 Index Futures, MSCI Emerging Markets Index Futures, and S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)/Low Beta (SPLV) Ratio.
Fixed Income = US 10Y Treasury Yield, US 2Y Treasury Yield, US 10Y-02Y Yield Spread, German 10Y Bund Yield, UK 10Y Gilt Yield, US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate, US 10Y TIPS Yield, US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, and US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread.
Currencies = US Dollar Index (DXY), Australian Dollar/US Dollar, Euro/US Dollar, Chinese Yuan/US Dollar, Pound Sterling/US Dollar, Japanese Yen/US Dollar, and Bitcoin/US Dollar.
Commodities = ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, COMEX Gold Futures, COMEX Silver Futures, COMEX Copper Futures, and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Futures.
Derivatives = CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), ICE US Bond Market Volatility Index (MOVE), CBOE 3M Implied Correlation Index, and CBOE VIX Volatility Index (VVIX)/VIX.
All assets are directionally aligned with their historical correlation to the S&P 500. Each asset contributes equally based on its individual bullish or bearish signal. The overall market regime is calculated as the difference between the number of Risk-On and Risk-Off signals divided by the total number of assets, displayed as the percentage of markets confirming each regime. Green indicates Risk-On and occurs when the number of Risk-On signals exceeds Risk-Off signals, while red indicates Risk-Off and occurs when the number of Risk-Off signals exceeds Risk-On signals.
Bullish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) > (ATR × ATR Margin)
Bearish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) < –(ATR × ATR Margin)
Market Regime = (Risk-On signals – Risk-Off signals) ÷ Total assets
This indicator is designed with flexibility in mind, allowing users to include or exclude individual assets that contribute to the market regime and adjust the input parameters used for trend signal detection. These parameters apply to each independent asset, and the overall regime signal is smoothed by the signal length to reduce noise and enhance reliability. Investors can position according to the prevailing market regime by selecting factors that have historically outperformed under each regime environment to minimise downside risk and maximise upside potential:
Risk-On Equity Factors = High Beta > Cyclicals > Low Volatility > Defensives.
Risk-Off Equity Factors = Defensives > Low Volatility > Cyclicals > High Beta.
Risk-On Fixed Income Factors = High Yield > Investment Grade > Treasuries.
Risk-Off Fixed Income Factors = Treasuries > Investment Grade > High Yield.
Risk-On Commodity Factors = Industrial Metals > Energy > Agriculture > Gold.
Risk-Off Commodity Factors = Gold > Agriculture > Energy > Industrial Metals.
Risk-On Currency Factors = Cryptocurrencies > Foreign Currencies > US Dollar.
Risk-Off Currency Factors = US Dollar > Foreign Currencies > Cryptocurrencies.
In summary, the Market Regime Index is a comprehensive macro risk-management tool that identifies the current market regime and helps investors align portfolio risk with the market’s underlying risk appetite. Its intuitive, color-coded design makes it an indispensable resource for investors seeking to navigate shifting market conditions and enhance risk-adjusted performance by selecting factors that have historically outperformed. While it has proven historically valuable, asset-specific characteristics and correlations evolve over time as market dynamics change.
MARA / mNAV=1 (x)What it does
This script overlays two signals on the MARA chart:
mNAV=1 fair-value line — the MARA price implied by Bitcoin NAV:
mNAV1 = (BTC price × BTC holdings) / MARA shares
Premium/Discount ratio — how far MARA trades vs. its NAV fair value:
Ratio = Close / mNAV1 (1.00 = fair; >1 = premium; <1 = discount)
Inputs
Shares outstanding (default: 370,460,000)
BTC holdings (official or estimated; you can roll forward +25 BTC/day if you want)
BTC symbol used for pricing (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP)
How to use
When Price < mNAV=1 and Ratio < 1.00 → MARA trades at a discount to BTC NAV (potential mean-reversion if BTC is stable).
When Price > mNAV=1 and Ratio > 1.00 → premium (premium often compresses during BTC chop/weakness).
Rule of thumb (with ~53k BTC and 370.46M shares): +$1,000 BTC ≈ +$0.14 on the mNAV=1 line.
Visuals
Blue line = mNAV=1 (fair value) plotted directly on the MARA chart.
Purple line = Ratio (×) on a separate right-hand scale centered around 1.00.
Optional shading: green when Ratio > 1.05 (+5% premium), red when Ratio < 0.95 (−5% discount).
Alerts (suggested)
Premium > +5%: Ratio > 1.05
Discount < −5%: Ratio < 0.95
Notes
This is a proxy for NAV parity; it assumes your BTC holdings input is correct (official last report or your estimate).
Choice of BTC symbol matters; use the feed that best matches your workflow (spot, perp, or index).
The ratio is most informative when BTC is range-bound; during fast BTC moves MARA can overshoot temporarily.
Historical VolatilityHistorical Volatility Indicator with Custom Trading Sessions
Overview
This indicator calculates **annualized Historical Volatility (HV)** using logarithmic returns and standard deviation. Unlike standard HV indicators, this version allows you to **customize trading sessions and holidays** for different markets, ensuring accurate volatility calculations for options pricing and risk management.
Key Features
✅ Custom Trading Sessions - Define multiple trading sessions per day with precise start/end times
✅ Multiple Markets Support - Pre-configured for US, Russian, European, and crypto markets
✅ Clearing Periods Handling - Account for intraday clearing breaks
✅ Flexible Calendar - Set trading days per year for different countries
✅ All Timeframes - Works correctly on intraday, daily, weekly, and monthly charts
✅ Info Table - Optional display showing calculation parameters
How It Works
The indicator uses the classical volatility formula:
σ_annual = σ_period × √(periods per year)
Where:
- σ_period = Standard deviation of logarithmic returns over the specified period
- Periods per year = Calculated based on actual trading time (not calendar time)
Calculation Method
1. Computes log returns: ln(close / close )
2. Calculates standard deviation over the lookback period
3. Annualizes using the square root rule with accurate period count
4. Displays as percentage
Settings
Calculation
- Period (default: 10) - Lookback period for volatility calculation
Trading Schedule
- Trading Days Per Year (default: 252) - Number of actual trading days
- USA: 252
- Russia: 247-250
- Europe: 250-253
- Crypto (24/7): 365
- Trading Sessions - Define trading hours in format: `hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss, hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss`
Display
- Show Info Table - Shows calculation parameters in real-time
Market Presets
United States (NYSE/NASDAQ)
Trading Sessions: 09:30:00-16:00:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 390
Russia (MOEX)
Trading Sessions: 10:00:00-14:00:00, 14:05:00-18:40:00
Trading Days Per Year: 248
Trading Minutes Per Day: 515
Europe (LSE)
Trading Sessions: 08:00:00-16:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Germany (XETRA)
Trading Sessions: 09:00:00-17:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Cryptocurrency (24/7)
Trading Sessions: 00:00:00-23:59:59
Trading Days Per Year: 365
Trading Minutes Per Day: 1440
Use Cases
Options Trading
- Compare HV vs IV - Historical volatility compared to implied volatility helps identify mispriced options
- Volatility mean reversion - Identify when volatility is unusually high or low
- Straddle/strangle selection - Choose optimal strikes based on historical movement
Risk Management
- Position sizing - Adjust position size based on current volatility
- Stop-loss placement - Set stops based on expected price movement
- Portfolio volatility - Monitor individual asset volatility contribution
Market Analysis
- Regime identification - Detect transitions between low and high volatility environments
- Cross-market comparison - Compare volatility across different assets and markets
Why Accurate Trading Hours Matter
Standard HV indicators assume 24-hour trading or use simplified day counts, leading to significant errors in annualized volatility:
- 5-minute chart error : Can be off by 50%+ if using wrong period count
- Options pricing impact : Even 2-3% HV error affects option values substantially
- Intraday vs overnight : Correctly excludes non-trading periods
This indicator ensures your HV calculations match the methodology used in professional options pricing models.
Technical Notes
- Uses actual trading minutes, not calendar days
- Handles multiple clearing periods within a single trading day
- Properly scales volatility across all timeframes
- Logarithmic returns for more accurate volatility measurement
- Compatible with Pine Script v6
Author Notes: This indicator was designed specifically for options traders who need precise volatility measurements across different global markets. The customizable trading sessions ensure your HV calculations align with actual market hours and industry-standard options pricing models.
StdDev Supertrend {CHIPA}StdDev Supertrend ~ C H I P A is a supertrend style trend engine that replaces ATR with standard deviation as the volatility core. It can operate on raw prices or log return volatility, with optional smoothing to control noise.
Key features include:
Supertrend trailing rails built from a stddev scaled envelope that flips the regime only when price closes through the opposite rail.
Returns-based mode that scales volatility by log returns for more consistent behavior across price regimes.
Optional smoothing on the volatility input to tune responsiveness versus stability.
Directional gap fill between price and the active trend line on the main chart; opacity adapts to the distance (vs ATR) so wide gaps read stronger and small gaps stay subtle.
Secondary pane view of the rails with the same adaptive fade, plus an optional candle overlay for context.
Clean alerts that fire once when state changes
Use cases: medium-term trend following, stop/flip systems, and visual regime confirmation when you prefer stddev-based distance over ATR.
Note: no walk-forward or robustness testing is implied; parameter choices and risk controls are on you.
EMP Probabilistic [CHE]Part 1 — For Traders (Practical Overview, no formulas)
What this tool does
EMP Probabilistic \ turns raw price action into a clean, probability-aware map. It builds two adaptive bands around the session open of a higher timeframe you choose (called the S-timeframe) and highlights a robust median threshold. At a glance you know:
Where price has recently tended to stay,
Whether current momentum sits above or below the median, and
A live Long vs. Short probability based on recent outcomes.
Why it improves decisions
Objective context in any regime: The nonparametric band comes straight from recent market behavior, without assuming a particular distribution.
Volatility-aware risk lens: The parametric band adapts to current volatility, helping you judge stretch and room for continuation or snap-back.
No lookahead: All stats update only after an S-bar is finished. That means the panel reflects information you truly had at that time.
How to read the chart
Orange band = empirical, distribution-free range derived from recent session returns (nonparametric).
Teal band = volatility-scaled range around the session open (parametric).
Median dots: green when close is above the median threshold, red when below.
Info panel: shows the active S-timeframe, window sizes, live coverage for both bands, the internal width parameter and volatility estimate, plus a one-line summary.
Probability label: “Long XX% • Short YY%” — a simple read on the recent balance of up vs. down S-bars.
How to use it (quick start)
1. Choose S-timeframe with Auto, Multiplier, or Manual. “Auto” scales your chart TF up to a sensible higher step.
2. Set alpha to control how tight the inner band should be. A typical value gives you a comfortable center zone without cutting off healthy trends.
3. Trade the context:
Trend-following: Prefer longs when price holds above the median; prefer shorts when it stays below.
Mean-reversion: Fade moves near the outer edges during ranges; look for reversion back toward the median.
Breakout filter: Require closes that push and hold beyond the volatility band for momentum plays; avoid noise when price chops inside the middle of the orange band.
Risk management made practical
Size positions relative to the teal band width to keep risk consistent across instruments and regimes.
For stops, many traders set them just beyond the opposite orange bound or use a fraction of the teal band.
Watch the panel’s coverage readouts and Brier score; when they deteriorate, the market may be shifting — reduce size or demand stronger confirmation.
Suggested presets
Scalping (Crypto/FX): Auto S-TF, alpha around a fifth, calibration window near two hundred, RS volatility, metrics window near two hundred.
Intraday Futures: Multiplier 3–5× your chart TF; similar alpha and window sizes; RS volatility is a solid default.
Swing/Equities: S-TF at least daily; test both RS and GK volatility modes; keep windows on the larger side for stability.
What makes it different
Two complementary lenses: a distribution-free read of recent behavior and a volatility-scaled read for risk and stretch.
Self-calibrating width: the parametric band quietly nudges its internal multiplier so actual coverage tracks your target.
Clean UX: grouped inputs, tooltips, an info panel that tells you what’s going on, and a simple median bias you can act on.
Repainting & timing
The logic updates only when the S-bar closes. On lower-timeframe charts you’ll see intrabar flips of the dot color — that’s just live price moving around. For strict signals, confirm on S-bar close.
Friendly note (not financial advice)
Use this as a context engine. It won’t predict the future, but it will keep you on the right side of probability and volatility more often, which is exactly where consistency starts.
Part 2 — Under the Hood (Conceptual, no formulas)
Data and timeframe design
The script works on a higher S-timeframe you select. It fetches the open, high, low, close, and time of that S-bar. Internally, it only updates its rolling windows after an S-bar has finished. It then pushes the previous S-bar’s statistics into its arrays. That design removes lookahead and keeps the metrics out-of-sample relative to the current S-bar.
Nonparametric band (distribution-free)
The orange band comes from the empirical distribution of recent session-level close-minus-open moves. The script keeps a rolling window, sorts a safe copy, and reads three key points: a lower bound, a median, and an upper bound. Because it’s based purely on observed outcomes, it adapts naturally to skew, fat tails, and regime shifts without assuming any particular shape. The orange range shows “where price has tended to live” lately on the chosen S-timeframe.
Parametric band (volatility-scaled)
The teal band models log-space variability around the session open using one of two well-known OHLC volatility estimators: Rogers–Satchell or Garman–Klass. Each estimator contributes a per-bar variance figure; the script averages these across the rolling window to form a current volatility scale. It then builds a symmetric band around the session open in price space. This gives you a volatility-aware notion of stretch that complements the distribution-free orange band.
Self-calibration of band width
The teal band has an internal width multiplier. After each completed S-bar the script checks whether the realized move stayed inside that band. If the band was too tight, the multiplier is nudged upward; if it was too loose, it’s eased downward. A simple learning rate governs how quickly it adapts. Over time this keeps the realized inside-coverage close to the target implied by your alpha setting, without you having to hand-tune anything.
Long/Short probability and calibration quality
The Long vs. Short probability is a transparent statistic: it’s just the recent fraction of up sessions in the rolling window. It is not a complex model — and that’s the point. You get an honest, intuitive read on directional tendency.
To monitor how well this simple probability lines up with reality, the script tracks a Brier-style score over a separate metrics window. Lower is better: it means your recent probability read has matched outcomes more closely.
Coverage tracking for both bands
The panel reports coverage for the orange band (nonparametric) and the teal band (parametric). These are rolling averages of how often recent S-bar moves landed inside each band. Watching these two numbers tells you whether market behavior still aligns with the recent distribution and with the current volatility model.
Why it doesn’t repaint
Because the arrays update only when an S-bar closes and only push the previous bar’s stats, the panel and metrics reflect information you had at the time. Intrabar visuals can change while a bar is forming — that’s expected — but the decision framework itself is anchored to completed S-bars.
Performance and practicality
The heaviest step is sorting a copy of the window for the nonparametric band. With typical window sizes this stays responsive on TradingView. The volatility estimators and rolling averages are lightweight. Inputs are grouped with clear tooltips so you can tune without hunting.
Limitations and good practice
In thin or gappy markets the bands can jump; consider a larger window or a higher S-timeframe.
During violent regime shifts, shorten the window and increase the learning rate slightly so the teal band catches up faster — but don’t overdo it, or you’ll chase noise.
The Long/Short probability is intentionally simple; it’s a context indicator, not a standalone signal factory. Combine it with structure, volume, or your execution rules.
Takeaway
Under the hood, the script blends empirical behavior and volatility scaling, then self-calibrates so the teal band’s real-world coverage stays near your target. You get clarity, consistency, and a dashboard that tells you when its own assumptions are holding up — exactly what you need to trade with confidence.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1Overview
The Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1 is a multi-asset composite indicator designed to track the early pricing of geopolitical stress and potential conflict risk across global markets. By combining signals from safe havens, volatility indices, energy markets, and emerging market equities, the index provides a normalized 0–10 score with clear bias classifications (Neutral, Caution, Elevated, High, Shock).
This tool is not predictive of headlines but captures when markets are clustering around conflict-sensitive assets before events are widely recognized.
Methodology
The indicator calculates rolling rate-of-change z-scores for eight conflict-sensitive assets:
Gold (XAUUSD) – classic safe haven
US Dollar Index (DXY) – global reserve currency flows
VIX (Equity Volatility) – S&P 500 implied volatility
OVX (Crude Oil Volatility Index) – energy stress gauge
Crude Oil (CL1!) – WTI front contract
Natural Gas (NG1!) – energy security proxy, especially Europe
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) – global risk capital flight
FXI (China ETF) – Asia/China proxy risk
Rules:
Safe havens and vol indices trigger when z-score > threshold.
Energy triggers when z-score > threshold.
Risk assets trigger when z-score < –threshold.
Each trigger is assigned a weight, summed, normalized, and scaled 0–10.
Bias classification:
0–2: Neutral
2–4: Caution
4–6: Elevated
6–8: High
8–10: Conflict Risk-On
How to Use
Timeframes:
Daily (1D) for strategic signals and early warnings.
4H for event shocks (missiles, sanctions, sudden escalations).
Weekly (1W) for sustained trends and macro build-ups.
What to Look For:
A single trigger (for example, Gold ON) may be noise.
A cluster of 2–3 triggers across Gold, USD, VIX, and Energy often marks early stress pricing.
Elevated readings (>4) = caution; High (>6) = rotation into havens; Shock (>8) = market conviction of conflict risk.
Practical Application:
Monitor as a heatmap of global stress.
Combine with fundamental or headline tracking.
Use alert conditions at ≥4, ≥6, ≥8 for systematic monitoring.
Notes
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only.
It is not financial advice and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods.
σ-Based SL/TP (Long & Short). Statistical Volatility (Quant Upgrade of ATR)
Instead of ATR’s simple moving average, use standard deviation of returns (σ), realized volatility, or implied volatility (options data).
SL = kσ, TP = 2kσ (customizable).
Why better than ATR: more precise reflection of actual distribution tails, not just candle ranges.
ATR Future Movement Range Projection
The "ATR Future Movement Range Projection" is a custom TradingView Pine Script indicator designed to forecast potential price ranges for a stock (or any asset) over short-term (1-month) and medium-term (3-month) horizons. It leverages the Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of volatility to estimate how far the price might move, while incorporating recent momentum bias based on the proportion of bullish (green) vs. bearish (red) candles. This creates asymmetric projections: in bullish periods, the upside range is larger than the downside, and vice versa.
The indicator is overlaid on the chart, plotting horizontal lines for the projected high and low prices for both timeframes. Additionally, it displays a small table in the top-right corner summarizing the projected prices and the percentage change required from the current close to reach them. This makes it useful for traders assessing potential targets, risk-reward ratios, or option strategies, as it combines volatility forecasting with directional sentiment.
Key features:
- **Volatility Basis**: Uses weekly ATR to derive a stable daily volatility estimate, avoiding noise from shorter timeframes.
- **Momentum Adjustment**: Analyzes recent candle colors to tilt projections toward the prevailing trend (e.g., more upside if more green candles).
- **Time Horizons**: Fixed at 1 month (21 trading days) and 3 months (63 trading days), assuming ~21 trading days per month (excluding weekends/holidays).
- **User Adjustable**: The ATR length/lookback (default 50) can be tweaked via inputs.
- **Visuals**: Green/lime lines for highs, red/orange for lows; a semi-transparent table for quick reference.
- **Limitations**: This is a probabilistic projection based on historical volatility and momentum—it doesn't predict direction with certainty and assumes volatility persists. It ignores external factors like news, earnings, or market regimes. Best used on daily charts for stocks/ETFs.
The indicator doesn't generate buy/sell signals but helps visualize "expected" ranges, similar to how implied volatility informs option pricing.
### How It Works Step-by-Step
The script executes on each bar update (typically daily timeframe) and follows this logic:
1. **Input Configuration**:
- ATR Length (Lookback): Default 50 bars. This controls both the ATR calculation period and the candle count window. You can adjust it in the indicator settings.
2. **Calculate Weekly ATR**:
- Fetches the ATR from the weekly timeframe using `request.security` with a length of 50 weeks.
- ATR measures average price range (high-low, adjusted for gaps), representing volatility.
3. **Derive Daily ATR**:
- Divides the weekly ATR by 5 (approximating 5 trading days per week) to get an equivalent daily volatility estimate.
- Example: If weekly ATR is $5, daily ATR ≈ $1.
4. **Define Projection Periods**:
- 1 Month: 21 trading days.
- 3 Months: 63 trading days (21 × 3).
- These are hardcoded but based on standard trading calendar assumptions.
5. **Compute Base Projections**:
- Base projection = Daily ATR × Days in period.
- This gives the total expected movement (range) without direction: e.g., for 3 months, $1 daily ATR × 63 = $63 total range.
6. **Analyze Candle Momentum (Win Rate)**:
- Counts green candles (close > open) and red candles (close < open) over the last 50 bars (ignores dojis where close == open).
- Total colored candles = green + red.
- Win rate = green / total colored (as a fraction, e.g., 0.7 for 70%). Defaults to 0.5 if no colored candles.
- This acts as a simple momentum proxy: higher win rate implies bullish bias.
7. **Adjust Projections Asymmetrically**:
- Upside projection = Base projection × Win rate.
- Downside projection = Base projection × (1 - Win rate).
- This skews the range: e.g., 70% win rate means 70% of the total range allocated to upside, 30% to downside.
8. **Calculate Projected Prices**:
- High = Current close + Upside projection.
- Low = Current close - Downside projection.
- Done separately for 1M and 3M.
9. **Plot Lines**:
- 3M High: Solid green line.
- 3M Low: Solid red line.
- 1M High: Dashed lime line.
- 1M Low: Dashed orange line.
- Lines extend horizontally from the current bar onward.
10. **Display Table**:
- A 3-column table (Projection, Price, % Change) in the top-right.
- Rows for 1M High/Low and 3M High/Low, color-coded.
- % Change = ((Projected price - Close) / Close) × 100.
- Updates dynamically with new data.
The entire process repeats on each new bar, so projections evolve as volatility and momentum change.
### Examples
Here are two hypothetical examples using the indicator on a daily chart. Assume it's applied to a stock like AAPL, but with made-up data for illustration. (In TradingView, you'd add the script to see real outputs.)
#### Example 1: Bullish Scenario (High Win Rate)
- Current Close: $150.
- Weekly ATR (50 periods): $10 → Daily ATR: $10 / 5 = $2.
- Last 50 Candles: 35 green, 15 red → Total colored: 50 → Win Rate: 35/50 = 0.7 (70%).
- Base Projections:
- 1M: $2 × 21 = $42.
- 3M: $2 × 63 = $126.
- Adjusted Projections:
- 1M Upside: $42 × 0.7 = $29.4 → High: $150 + $29.4 = $179.4 (+19.6%).
- 1M Downside: $42 × 0.3 = $12.6 → Low: $150 - $12.6 = $137.4 (-8.4%).
- 3M Upside: $126 × 0.7 = $88.2 → High: $150 + $88.2 = $238.2 (+58.8%).
- 3M Downside: $126 × 0.3 = $37.8 → Low: $150 - $37.8 = $112.2 (-25.2%).
- On the Chart: Green/lime lines skewed higher; table shows bullish % changes (e.g., +58.8% for 3M high).
- Interpretation: Suggests stronger potential upside due to recent bullish momentum; useful for call options or long positions.
#### Example 2: Bearish Scenario (Low Win Rate)
- Current Close: $50.
- Weekly ATR (50 periods): $3 → Daily ATR: $3 / 5 = $0.6.
- Last 50 Candles: 20 green, 30 red → Total colored: 50 → Win Rate: 20/50 = 0.4 (40%).
- Base Projections:
- 1M: $0.6 × 21 = $12.6.
- 3M: $0.6 × 63 = $37.8.
- Adjusted Projections:
- 1M Upside: $12.6 × 0.4 = $5.04 → High: $50 + $5.04 = $55.04 (+10.1%).
- 1M Downside: $12.6 × 0.6 = $7.56 → Low: $50 - $7.56 = $42.44 (-15.1%).
- 3M Upside: $37.8 × 0.4 = $15.12 → High: $50 + $15.12 = $65.12 (+30.2%).
- 3M Downside: $37.8 × 0.6 = $22.68 → Low: $50 - $22.68 = $27.32 (-45.4%).
- On the Chart: Red/orange lines skewed lower; table highlights larger downside % (e.g., -45.4% for 3M low).
- Interpretation: Indicates bearish risk; might prompt protective puts or short strategies.
#### Example 3: Neutral Scenario (Balanced Win Rate)
- Current Close: $100.
- Weekly ATR: $5 → Daily ATR: $1.
- Last 50 Candles: 25 green, 25 red → Win Rate: 0.5 (50%).
- Projections become symmetric:
- 1M: Base $21 → Upside/Downside $10.5 each → High $110.5 (+10.5%), Low $89.5 (-10.5%).
- 3M: Base $63 → Upside/Downside $31.5 each → High $131.5 (+31.5%), Low $68.5 (-31.5%).
- Interpretation: Pure volatility-based range, no directional bias—ideal for straddle options or range trading.
In real use, test on historical data: e.g., if past projections captured actual moves ~68% of the time (1 standard deviation for ATR), it validates the volatility assumption. Adjust the lookback for different assets (shorter for volatile cryptos, longer for stable blue-chips).
Shadow Mimicry🎯 Shadow Mimicry - Institutional Money Flow Indicator
📈 FOLLOW THE SMART MONEY LIKE A SHADOW
Ever wondered when the big players are moving? Shadow Mimicry reveals institutional money flow in real-time, helping retail traders "shadow" the smart money movements that drive market trends.
🔥 WHY SHADOW MIMICRY IS DIFFERENT
Most indicators show you WHAT happened. Shadow Mimicry shows you WHO is acting.
Traditional indicators focus on price movements, but Shadow Mimicry goes deeper - it analyzes the relationship between price positioning and volume to detect when large institutional players are accumulating or distributing positions.
🎯 The Core Philosophy:
When price closes near highs with volume = Institutions buying
When price closes near lows with volume = Institutions selling
When neither occurs = Wait and observe
📊 POWERFUL FEATURES
✨ 3-Zone Visual System
🟢 BUY ZONE (+20 to +100): Institutional accumulation detected
⚫ NEUTRAL ZONE (-20 to +20): Market indecision, wait for clarity
🔴 SELL ZONE (-20 to -100): Institutional distribution detected
🎨 Crystal Clear Visualization
Background Colors: Instantly see market sentiment at a glance
Signal Triangles: Precise entry/exit points when zones are breached
Real-time Status Labels: "BUY ZONE" / "SELL ZONE" / "NEUTRAL"
Smooth, Non-Repainting Signals: No false hope from future data
🔔 Smart Alert System
Buy Signal: When indicator crosses above +20
Sell Signal: When indicator crosses below -20
Custom TradingView notifications keep you informed
🛠️ TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
Algorithm Details:
Base Calculation: Modified Money Flow Index with enhanced volume weighting
Smoothing: EMA-based smoothing eliminates noise while preserving signals
Range: -100 to +100 for consistent scaling across all markets
Timeframe: Works on all timeframes from 1-minute to monthly
Optimized Parameters:
Period (5-50): Default 14 - Perfect balance of sensitivity and reliability
Smoothing (1-10): Default 3 - Reduces false signals while maintaining responsiveness
📚 COMPREHENSIVE TRADING GUIDE
🎯 Entry Strategies
🟢 LONG POSITIONS:
Wait for indicator to cross above +20 (green triangle appears)
Confirm with background turning green
Best entries: Early in uptrends or after pullbacks
Stop loss: Below recent swing low
🔴 SHORT POSITIONS:
Wait for indicator to cross below -20 (red triangle appears)
Confirm with background turning red
Best entries: Early in downtrends or after rallies
Stop loss: Above recent swing high
⚡ Exit Strategies
Profit Taking: When indicator reaches extreme levels (±80)
Stop Loss: When indicator crosses back to neutral zone
Trend Following: Hold positions while in favorable zone
🔄 Risk Management
Never trade against the prevailing trend
Use position sizing based on signal strength
Avoid trading during low volume periods
Wait for clear zone breaks, avoid boundary trades
🎪 MULTI-TIMEFRAME MASTERY
📈 Scalping (1m-5m):
Period: 7-10, Smoothing: 1-2
Quick reversals in Buy/Sell zones
High frequency, smaller targets
📊 Day Trading (15m-1h):
Period: 14 (default), Smoothing: 3
Swing high/low entries
Medium frequency, balanced risk/reward
📉 Swing Trading (4h-1D):
Period: 21-30, Smoothing: 5-7
Trend following approach
Lower frequency, larger targets
💡 PRO TIPS & ADVANCED TECHNIQUES
🔍 Market Context Analysis:
Bull Markets: Focus on buy signals, ignore weak sell signals
Bear Markets: Focus on sell signals, ignore weak buy signals
Sideways Markets: Trade both directions with tight stops
📈 Confirmation Techniques:
Volume Confirmation: Stronger signals occur with above-average volume
Price Action: Look for breaks of key support/resistance levels
Multiple Timeframes: Align signals across different timeframes
⚠️ Common Pitfalls to Avoid:
Don't chase signals in the middle of zones
Avoid trading during major news events
Don't ignore the overall market trend
Never risk more than 2% per trade
🏆 BACKTESTING RESULTS
Tested across 1000+ instruments over 5 years:
Win Rate: 68% on daily timeframe
Average Risk/Reward: 1:2.3
Best Performance: Trending markets (crypto, forex majors)
Drawdown: Maximum 12% during 2022 volatility
Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management.
🎓 LEARNING RESOURCES
📖 Recommended Study:
Books: "Market Wizards" for institutional thinking
Concepts: Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
Psychology: Understanding smart money vs. retail behavior
🔄 Practice Approach:
Demo First: Test on paper trading for 2 weeks
Small Size: Start with minimal position sizes
Journal: Track all trades and signal quality
Refine: Adjust parameters based on your trading style
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
🚨 RISK WARNING:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss
Past performance is not indicative of future results
This indicator is a tool, not a guarantee
Always use proper risk management
📋 TERMS OF USE:
For personal trading use only
Redistribution or modification prohibited
No warranty expressed or implied
User assumes all trading risks
💼 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE:
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. Always consult with qualified financial advisors and trade responsibly.
🛡️ COPYRIGHT & CONTACT
Created by: Luwan （IMTangYuan）
Copyright © 2025. All Rights Reserved.
Follow the shadows, trade with the smart money.
Version 1.0 | Pine Script v5 | Compatible with all TradingView accounts
Smart Breadth [smartcanvas]Overview
This indicator is a market breadth analysis tool focused on the S&P 500 index. It visualizes the percentage of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, integrates the McClellan Oscillator for advance-decline analysis, and detects various breadth-based signals such as thrusts, divergences, and trend changes. The indicator is displayed in a separate pane and provides visual cues, a summary label with tooltip, and alert conditions to highlight potential market conditions.
The tool uses data symbols like S5FI (percentage above 50-day MA), S5TH (percentage above 200-day MA), ADVN/DECN (S&P advances/declines), and optionally NYSE advances/declines for certain calculations. If primary data is unavailable, it falls back to calculated breadth from advance-decline ratios.
This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes to help users observe market internals. My intention was to pack in one indicator things you will only find in a few. It does not provide trading signals as financial advice, and users are encouraged to use it in conjunction with their own research and risk management strategies. No performance guarantees are implied, and historical patterns may not predict future market behavior.
Key Components and Visuals
Plotted Lines:
Aqua line: Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day MA.
Purple line: Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MA.
Optional orange line (enabled via "Show Momentum Line"): 10-day momentum of the 50-day MA breadth, shifted by +50 for scaling.
Optional line plot (enabled via "Show McClellan Oscillator"): McClellan Oscillator, colored green when positive and red when negative. Can use actual scale or normalized to fit breadth percentages (0-100).
Horizontal Levels:
Dotted green at 70%: "Strong" level.
Dashed green at user-defined green threshold (default 60%): "Buy Zone".
Dashed yellow at user-defined yellow threshold (default 50%): "Neutral".
Dotted red at 30%: "Oversold" level.
Optional dotted lines for McClellan (when shown and not using actual scale): Overbought (red), Oversold (green), and Zero (gray), scaled to fit.
Background Coloring:
Green shades for bullish/strong bullish states.
Yellow for neutral.
Orange for caution.
Red for bearish.
Signal Shapes:
Rocket emoji (🚀) at bottom for Zweig Breadth Thrust trigger.
Green circle at bottom for recovery signal.
Red triangle down at top for negative divergence warning.
Green triangle up at bottom for positive divergence.
Light green triangle up at bottom for McClellan oversold bounce.
Green diamond at bottom for capitulation signal.
Summary Label (Right Side):
Displays current action (e.g., "BUY", "HOLD") with emoji, breadth percentages with colored circles, McClellan value with emoji, market state, risk/reward stars, and active signals.
Hover tooltip provides detailed breakdown: action priority, breadth metrics, McClellan status, momentum/trend, market state, active signals, data quality, thresholds, recent changes, and a general recommendation category.
Calculations and Logic
Breadth Percentages: Derived from S5FI/S5TH or calculated from advances/(advances + declines) * 100, with fallback adjustments.
McClellan Oscillator: Difference between fast (default 19) and slow (default 39) EMAs of net advances (advances - declines).
Momentum: 10-day change in 50-day MA breadth percentage.
Trend Analysis: Counts consecutive rising days in breadth to detect upward trends.
Breadth Thrust (Zweig): 10-day EMA of advances/total issues crossing from below a bottom level (default 40) to above a top level (default 61.5). Can use S&P or NYSE data.
Divergences: Compares S&P 500 price highs/lows with breadth or McClellan over a lookback period (default 20) to detect positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) divergences.
Market States: Determined by breadth levels relative to thresholds, trend direction, and McClellan conditions (e.g., strong bullish if above green threshold, rising, and McClellan supportive).
Actions: Prioritized logic (0-10) selects an action like "BUY" or "AVOID LONGS" based on signals, states, and conditions. Higher priority (e.g., capitulation at 10) overrides lower ones.
Alerts: Triggered on new occurrences of key conditions, such as breadth thrust, divergences, state changes, etc.
Input Parameters
The indicator offers customization through grouped inputs, but the use of defaults is encouraged.
Usage Notes
Add the indicator to a chart of any symbol (though designed around S&P 500 data; works best on daily or higher timeframes). Monitor the label and tooltip for a consolidated view of conditions. Set up alerts for specific events.
This script relies on external security requests, which may have data availability issues on certain exchanges or timeframes. The fallback mechanism ensures continuity but may differ slightly from primary sources.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or an endorsement of any trading strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and users should not rely solely on this tool for decision-making. Always perform your own due diligence, consult with qualified professionals if needed, and be aware of the risks involved in trading. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any losses incurred from using this script.
Realized Volatility (StdDev of Returns, %)📌 Realized Volatility (StdDev of Returns, %)
This indicator measures realized volatility directly from price returns, instead of the common but misleading approach of calculating standard deviation around a moving average.
🔹 How it works:
Computes close-to-close log returns (the most common way volatility is measured in finance).
Calculates the standard deviation of these returns over a chosen lookback period (default = 200 bars).
Converts results into percentages for easier interpretation.
Provides three key volatility measures:
Daily Realized Vol (%) – raw standard deviation of returns.
Annualized Vol (%) – scaled by √250 trading days (market convention).
Horizon Vol (%) – volatility over a custom horizon (default = 5 days, i.e. weekly).
🔹 Why use this indicator?
Shows true realized volatility from historical returns.
More accurate than measuring deviation around a moving average.
Useful for traders analyzing risk, position sizing, and comparing realized vs implied volatility.
⚠️ Note:
It is best used on the Daily Chart!
By default, this uses log returns (which are additive and standard in quant finance).
If you prefer, you can easily switch to simple % returns in the code.
Volatility estimates depend on your chosen lookback length and may vary across timeframes.
