Viprasol Elite Flow Pro - Premium Order Flow & Trend System═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🔥 VIPRASOL ELITE FLOW PRO
Professional Order Flow & Trend Detection System
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📊 WHAT IS THIS INDICATOR?
Viprasol Elite Flow Pro is a comprehensive trading system that combines institutional order flow analysis with adaptive trend detection. Unlike basic indicators, this tool identifies high-probability setups by analyzing where smart money is likely positioning, while filtering signals through multiple confirmation layers.
This indicator is designed for traders who want to:
✓ Identify premium (supply) and discount (demand) zones automatically
✓ Detect trend direction with adaptive cloud technology
✓ Spot high-volume rejection points before major moves
✓ Filter low-quality signals with intelligent confirmation logic
✓ Track market strength in real-time via elite dashboard
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🎯 CORE FEATURES
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1️⃣ ELITE TREND ENGINE
• Adaptive Moving Average system (Fast/Adaptive/Smooth modes)
• Dynamic trend cloud that expands/contracts with volatility
• Real-time trend state tracking (Bullish/Bearish/Ranging)
• Trend strength meter (0-10 scale)
• ATR-based volatility adjustments
2️⃣ ORDER FLOW DETECTION
• Automatic Premium Zone (Supply) identification
• Automatic Discount Zone (Demand) identification
• Smart zone extension - zones remain valid until broken
• Zone rejection detection with price action confirmation
• Customizable zone strength (5-30 bars lookback)
3️⃣ VOLUME INTELLIGENCE
• Volume spike detection (configurable threshold)
• Climax bar identification (exhaustion signals)
• Volume filter for signal validation
• Institutional activity detection
4️⃣ SMART SIGNAL SYSTEM
• 3 Signal Modes: Aggressive, Balanced, Conservative
• Multi-layer confirmation logic
• Automatic profit targets (2:1 risk-reward)
• Stop loss suggestions based on ATR
• Prevents overtrading with bars-since-signal filter
5️⃣ ELITE DASHBOARD (HUD)
• Real-time trend direction and strength
• Volume status monitoring
• Active zones counter
• Market volatility gauge
• Current signal status
• 4 positioning options, compact mode available
6️⃣ PREMIUM STYLING
• 4 Professional color themes (Cyber/Gold/Ocean/Fire)
• Adjustable transparency and label sizes
• Clean, institutional-grade visuals
• Optimized for all chart types
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📖 HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
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STEP 1: TREND IDENTIFICATION
→ Green Cloud = Bullish trend - look for LONG opportunities
→ Red Cloud = Bearish trend - look for SHORT opportunities
→ Purple Cloud = Ranging - wait for breakout or fade extremes
STEP 2: ZONE ANALYSIS
→ PREMIUM (Red) zones = Potential resistance/supply areas
→ DISCOUNT (Green) zones = Potential support/demand areas
→ Price rejecting from zones = high-probability setups
STEP 3: SIGNAL CONFIRMATION
→ Wait for "LONG" or "SHORT" labels to appear
→ Check dashboard for trend strength (Moderate/Strong preferred)
→ Confirm volume status is "HIGH" or "CLIMAX"
→ Entry: Enter when label appears
→ Stop Loss: Use dotted line (1 ATR away)
→ Take Profit: Use dashed line (2 ATR away)
STEP 4: RISK MANAGEMENT
→ Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
→ Use the provided stop loss levels
→ Trail stops as price moves in your favor
→ Avoid trading during low volatility periods
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⚙️ RECOMMENDED SETTINGS
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FOR SCALPING (1M - 5M):
- Trend Type: Fast
- Sensitivity: 15
- Signal Mode: Aggressive
- Zone Strength: 8
FOR DAY TRADING (15M - 1H):
- Trend Type: Adaptive
- Sensitivity: 21 (default)
- Signal Mode: Balanced
- Zone Strength: 12 (default)
FOR SWING TRADING (4H - Daily):
- Trend Type: Smooth
- Sensitivity: 34
- Signal Mode: Conservative
- Zone Strength: 20
BEST MARKETS:
✓ Crypto (BTC, ETH, major altcoins)
✓ Forex (Major pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD)
✓ Indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DAX)
✓ High-liquidity stocks
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🎓 UNDERSTANDING THE METHODOLOGY
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This indicator is built on three core concepts:
1. ORDER FLOW THEORY
Markets move between premium (expensive) and discount (cheap) zones. Smart money accumulates in discount zones and distributes in premium zones. This indicator identifies these zones automatically.
2. ADAPTIVE TREND FOLLOWING
Unlike fixed-period moving averages, the Elite Trend Engine adjusts to current market volatility, providing more accurate trend signals in both trending and ranging conditions.
3. CONFLUENCE-BASED ENTRIES
Signals only trigger when multiple conditions align:
- Price in correct zone (premium for shorts, discount for longs)
- Trend confirmation (cloud color matches direction)
- Volume validation (spike or climax present)
- Price action strength (strong rejection candles)
This multi-layer approach dramatically reduces false signals.
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🔔 ALERT SETUP
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This indicator includes 5 alert types:
1. Long Signal → Triggers when buy conditions met
2. Short Signal → Triggers when sell conditions met
3. Volume Climax → Warns of pot
Search in scripts for "smart"
DANCE WITH WOLVES VN ALL TO 1DANCE WITH WOLVES VN is a smart-money volume indicator designed for stocks and crypto.
Main features:
• logic to detect Distribution, No Demand, Absorption and Exhaustion.
• Automatically builds smart Support/Resistance zones from high-volume price leaders.
• Regression trend channel to see the short-term trend and trading range.
• Dashboard table that shows the top high/low price bars with buy/sell volume and group labels.
• Alert conditions for Breakout above resistance and At Support Area so you don’t need to watch the chart all the time.
You can use it on any symbol and timeframe. Just add the script to your chart and follow the zones (red = resistance, green = support) together with the P/L labels and the status line.
Smart Money Volume + Support/Resistance + Trend Channel.
Tự động vẽ vùng hỗ trợ/kháng cự theo volume mạnh/yếu, label (Distribution, No Demand, Absorption, Exhaustion) và kênh xu hướng.
Cách dùng:
Uptrend: ưu tiên mua ở gần cạnh dưới kênh hoặc vùng hỗ trợ.
Downtrend: ưu tiên bán/short ở gần cạnh trên kênh hoặc vùng kháng cự.
Sideway: đánh range – mua gần support, bán gần resistance, cẩn thận false break.
P… = vùng giá cao → nhìn kiếm setup chốt lời / short / tránh FOMO.
L… = vùng giá thấp → nhìn kiếm setup bắt nhịp hồi / entry buy an toàn hơn.
AG Pro Dynamic Channels PremiumAG Pro Dynamic Channels Premium
The Gold Standard in Automated Market Structure.
AG Pro Dynamic Channels Premium is the culmination of advanced algorithmic development, designed specifically for professional traders who refuse to compromise on chart clarity.
While standard indicators flood your screen with noise, this Premium edition employs a proprietary "Smart Filtering Engine" to identify, validate, and project only the most statistically significant support and resistance channels. It transforms chaos into a clear, actionable roadmap.
🏆 Why Go Premium?
This is not just an update; it is a complete overhaul of the trend detection logic.
1. 🧠 Smart Quality Control (Exclusive) The core difference in the Premium version is its ability to "think" before it draws.
Volatility Filtering: The script analyzes the slope of every potential trend. It automatically rejects unsustainable "pump/dump" moves and flat ranges, keeping only tradeable structures.
Wick Exclusion Logic: An advanced algorithm that ignores extreme volatility spikes (wicks), drawing channels based on candle body consolidation for higher precision.
2. 🏷️ Intelligent Labeling System Instant situational awareness. Every channel is auto-labeled (e.g., Mj Ext Up), so you know exactly which market phase (Major or Minor, Internal or External) you are trading in without guessing.
3. ⚡ Zero-Lag Optimization The code has been refactored for maximum efficiency, ensuring faster load times and smoother performance even on lower timeframes.
💎 Key Features
Dual-Layer Architecture: Simultaneously tracks Major Trends (for bias) and Minor Trends (for entries).
Dynamic Support & Resistance: The dotted midline acts as a high-probability reversal zone.
Institutional Grade Alerts: Fully customizable alerts for Breakouts and Reactions, complete with metadata for automated trading systems.
Auto-Tuning: Default settings are optimized for a balance of sensitivity and reliability, but fully customizable for specific assets (Crypto, Forex, Indices).
⚙️ Methodology (How It Works)
To comply with TradingView House Rules, here is the technical logic behind the script:
Pivot Detection: The script scans price action using a highly sensitive lookback period to find raw Pivot Highs and Lows.
Structure Mapping: It processes these points to define the Market Structure (HH, LL, LH, HL).
Validation Layer: Before rendering, the Smart Filter calculates the channel's duration and slope coefficient. If the channel is too short or too steep (violating the user-defined Max Slope threshold), it is discarded as "Market Noise."
Projection: Validated channels are drawn with dynamic extensions and fill zones.
🔒 How to Get Access
This is an Invite-Only script. Access is restricted to authorized users.
To Request Access: Please send me a private message on TradingView or check the links in my profile signature for more information.
Existing Members: If you have active access, the script will load automatically.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis tools are for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Developed by Ali Gurtuna (AG Pro Series).
ORION Volume Engine by Ali_KamberogluORION Volume Engine by Ali_Kamberoglu | Look Beyond Volume, Track the "Smart Money"
Developer: Ali Kamberoğlu
Overview: What Price Doesn't Say, Volume Reveals
The ORION Volume Engine (VE) is a sophisticated market force analysis center that steps in where standard volume indicators fall short. This tool takes the classic On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator and transforms it into an intelligent analysis engine that filters market noise, detects "explosions" in volume, and, most importantly, automatically uncovers the critical divergences between price and volume.
ORION VE tells you not just where the volume is flowing, but also when that flow might be signaling an impending trend reversal.
The ORION Advantage: Why It's Different
The power of ORION VE comes from three intelligent layers that turn the standard OBV into an information hub:
Layer 1 - The Adaptive Signal Line (Smart KAMA Integration):
The raw data of OBV can be choppy and misleading. ORION VE uses the Adaptive KAMA engine to clean this noise, adapting to market conditions. When the market is flowing in a strong trend, KAMA speeds up to keep you in the trend. When the market is indecisive and sideways, it slows down, protecting you from early or false signals. This provides a revolutionary level of clarity in OBV analysis.
Layer 2 - Volume Volatility (Bollinger Bands on OBV):
This unique feature offers the option to draw Bollinger Bands not on the price, but directly on the OBV itself. What does this mean? You can now see when not just the price, but the volume flow itself is "squeezing" and when it's ready to "explode." A breakout of the OBV line from its own Bollinger Band is a powerful signal of an extraordinary increase in volume flow in that direction, confirming the current trend.
Layer 3 - The Game-Changing Feature: Fully Automatic Volume Divergence Engine
One of the most powerful signals heralding the end of a trend is a volume divergence. ORION VE finds these priceless signals for you, automatically:
Bullish Divergence 🐂: Is the price falling to new lows while the OBV (volume) refuses to fall, making higher lows? This is the clearest sign that selling pressure is exhausted and "smart money" is quietly accumulating. You are instantly alerted with a "Bull" label on your chart.
Bearish Divergence 🐻: Is the price hitting record highs, but the OBV is not supporting this rise with sufficient volume and is making lower highs? This is a signal that the power behind the trend is fading and a sharp decline may be imminent. The "Bear" label prepares you to protect your position or take profits.
High-Probability Trading Strategies:
Strongest BUY Signal:
A Bullish Divergence appears on the chart with a "Bull" label.
The OBV line crosses above its orange Adaptive KAMA signal line.
This is an A+ grade buying opportunity, indicating that smart money is stepping in and momentum is starting.
Strongest SELL Signal:
A Bearish Divergence appears on the chart with a "Bear" label.
The OBV line crosses below its orange Adaptive KAMA signal line.
This is a high-probability shorting opportunity, indicating that the uptrend is not supported by volume and momentum is shifting to the sellers.
Disclaimer
This indicator is a professional analysis tool developed to assist in your trading decisions. No signal or analysis constitutes investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves high risk, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please always apply your own risk management strategies.
Pivot & GapPIVOT and GAP – Indicator
PIVOT and GAP is an advanced structural price-action tool designed to detect hidden imbalances in the market by analyzing gap and pivot formations between candles.
It identifies areas where institutional activity may have left a price void, signaling potential Demand or Supply Zones. When these imbalances align with lower-timeframe zones, the probability of a powerful price reaction increases.
This indicator is built for traders who want to combine gap analysis, price-action structure, with multi-timeframe confluence to make smarter trading decisions.
How Does It Work?
The indicator automatically scans candles for two types of imbalances:
1. Demand-Side Imbalances
PIVOT (Demand Pivot Creation)
A Demand Pivot forms when:
a bearish candle is followed by a bullish candle, and
There is a gap/price difference between the bearish candle’s close and the
bullish candle’s open. A blue color box is created
This signals buyers stepping in aggressively after sellers weaken.
GAP (Demand Gap Creation)
A Demand Gap forms when:
two consecutive bullish candles appear, and there is a positive difference between
the first candle’s close and the next candle’s open.
A blue color box is created
This implies strong upward momentum with institutional buying pressure.
2. Supply-Side Imbalances
PIVOT (Supply Pivot Creation)
A Supply Pivot forms when:
A bullish candle is followed by a bearish candle, and
There is a gap/price difference between the bullish candle’s close and the
bearish candle’s open. A red color box is created
This signals sellers stepping in aggressively after buyers exhaust.
GAP (Supply Gap Creation)
A Supply Gap forms when:
Two consecutive bearish candles appear, and There is a negative difference between
the first candle’s close and the next candle’s open.
A red color box is created
This reflects strong downward momentum with institutional selling pressure.
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
The indicator performs gap and pivot analysis on higher timeframes, and
If combine with Demand Zone or Supply Zone on the lower timeframe which forms on the same candle.
That zone becomes a High-Probability Zone.
Such zones are considered more powerful because they combine:
• Higher timeframe institutional imbalance
• Strong confluence for reversal or continuation
• Demand and Supply zone creation at Lower Time Frame
How Traders Benefit from It?
High-Probability Zones combining HTF imbalance + LTF zone gives traders clearer areas with higher success probability.
Early Detection of Institutional Moves
Gaps and pivots typically occur where big players enter or exit positions.
Reduces Chart Noise
Instead of guessing where a zone matters, the indicator highlights only those backed by real price imbalances.
What Makes This Indicator Unique?
1. Candle-by-Candle Imbalance Detection
Instead of simple gap detection, this indicator reads the difference in open-close levels with high precision.
2. HTF–LTF Confluence Logic
When the same candle shows imbalance on HTF and a Demand & Supply zone on LTF, the zone is tagged as powerful — a unique decision layer not commonly seen in other scripts.
3. Designed From Your Custom Rules
This structure is built from your personal interpretation of how pivots and gaps create pressure zones — not copied from other scripts.
How This Indicator Is Original ?
The entire logic is created from my own rules of identifying pivots and
gaps, not from any open-source or public code.
The unique combination of:
Gap detection
Pivot shift logic
Direction-specific candle sequence
Multi-timeframe zone alignment
No repurposed or copied logic from existing demand-supply indicators.
The design reflects our personal trading experience, analysis style, and
custom definitions of imbalance.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is created for educational purposes.
It does not provide buy or sell signals, and it should not be considered financial advice.
Trading involves risk, and users should perform their own analysis before taking any positions.
MarketMind PRO v1.0 🜁 MarketMind PRO v1.0 — Multi-Session Real-Time Context Engine
Find opportunity faster. Trade with clarity and conviction.
🜁 MarketMind PRO is a real-time, session-aware context intelligence engine designed to answer one essential question:
Is this ticker truly in play today?
Its analysis adapts instantly to the current trading phase—Early Flow (Pre-Market), Volatility Burst (Open), Low-Vol Window (Midday), Rebuild Phase (Afternoon), or Power Hour (Pre-Close)—so the score and bias signals you see always reflect the conditions that matter right now.
This makes 🜁 MarketMind PRO a multi-timeframe environment engine with a strong emphasis on deep real-time analysis during the two highest-edge windows of the day: Pre-Market and Pre-Close .
By fusing macro alignment, sector flow, liquidity quality, volatility regime, microstructure behavior, and options-driven pressure into a single visual framework, 🜁 MarketMind PRO turns noisy charts into clean, decision-ready environments.
Whether you're hunting high-quality overnight setups in the final hour, scanning gap-driven opportunities before the open, or evaluating structure during the regular session, 🜁 MarketMind PRO highlights the context that matters—and filters out everything that doesn’t.
⭐ WHAT 🜁 MARKETMIND PRO ACTUALLY DOES
🜁 MarketMind PRO performs continuous real-time analysis across all trading phases.
It:
• detects when a ticker is aligned with broader market forces
• highlights high-quality conditions for intraday or overnight trades
• warns you when macro, VWAP, or gap conditions make the setup unsafe
• reveals trend, structure, liquidity, and flow context instantly
• consolidates cross-market awareness into one simple, unobtrusive chart
It’s built for traders who want clarity without complexity.
⭐ THE CORE OF 🜁 MARKETMIND PRO: THE SQS SCORE (0–100)
SQS (System Quality Score) compresses nine critical dimensions of market and setup readiness:
✓ Gap Behavior
✓ Sector Flow
✓ Liquidity Quality
✓ Relative Strength
✓ Macro Alignment
✓ Microstructure Strength
✓ Price Stability
✓ Options Flow
✓ Bonus Context (trend confluence, regime reinforcement)
SQS is fully session-aware and adjusts its weighting model in real time.
It automatically adapts to the two highest-opportunity phases:
• Pre-Close (15:30–16:00 ET) — for overnight hunters
• Pre-Market (04:00–09:30 ET) — for gap traders & open-drive setups
Scores translate into an intuitive tier:
• GO – High-quality environment
• WATCH – Developing conditions
• PASS – Low-quality environment
• SKIP – Hard block triggered (Macro, VWAP, Gap)
SQS doesn’t tell you what to trade — it tells you when the environment is worth your attention.
⭐ OPTIONS FLOW ENGINE v1.0 — A NEW DIMENSION OF CONVICTION
🜁 MarketMind PRO v1.0 introduces a dedicated Options Flow Engine, designed for traders who rely on flow-aligned environments.
Powered by a multi-layer fusion model, Options Flow measures:
• directional bias (Call vs Put)
• macro confirmation state
• RS, volatility, and trend bursts
• volume-imbalance pressure (buy/sell dominance)
• expansion bars & spike behavior
• early reversal/compression signals
• pre-market flow acceleration
• contextual flow multiplier (momentum × volatility × VWAP × sector alignment)
The output is a smooth, conservative, non-inflated flow signal that highlights genuine options pressure—not noise.
When enabled, Options Flow integrates directly into SQS as a weighted component, adding a powerful second layer of confirmation without overwhelming the trader.
⭐ THE HUD — EVERYTHING THAT MATTERS, INSTANTLY
The on-chart HUD is designed for ultra-fast interpretation and adapts automatically to your current session in real-time:
✔ Macro Bias (overall market tone & volatility environment)
✔ Sector Bias (how strong your ticker’s sector is today)
✔ Trend Bias (the chart’s structure, trend quality, VWAP position)
✔ Micro Bias (how similar tickers are behaving — peer confirmation)
✔ SQS Score (0–100) with tiers for GO / WATCH / PASS / SKIP
✔ Hard Block Reason (Macro, VWAP, or Gap — conditions that stop a setup from qualifying)
✔ Breakdown Panel (full 9-factor score display)
✔ Key Driver Analysis (which factor moved SQS the most)
✔ Options Mode Output (direction, expiry, delta, flow%)
Every element is tuned to reduce cognitive load and turn complex market states into clean, actionable context.
⭐ PRE-CLOSE MODE — IDENTIFY HIGH-QUALITY OVERNIGHT SETUPS
During 15:30–16:00 ET, 🜁 MarketMind PRO shifts into its highest-precision overnight model, emphasizing:
• structural integrity
• trend continuation
• sector agreement
• macro confirmation
• liquidity quality
• stability conditions
This helps uncover tickers building strength into the close—ideal for selective overnight positions.
⭐ PRE-MARKET MODE — FIND THE BEST GAP PLAYS BEFORE THE BELL
In the pre-market window, weightings shift toward:
• gap magnitude × character
• early liquidity quality
• volatility expansion vs compression
• microstructure acceleration
• macro alignment ahead of the open
• premarket flow strength (if Options Mode enabled)
You immediately see which tickers are warming up, which are accelerating, and which are fading before the open.
⭐ OPTIONS MODE (OPTIONAL FEATURE)
When activated, 🜁 MarketMind PRO displays:
• Call/Put direction
• Expiry (0DTE / 1DTE / 2DTE)
• Delta
• Options Flow %
• Flow Direction Bias (Bullish / Bearish)
This mode is ideal for:
• flow-confirmation traders
• macro-aligned momentum plays
• premarket sweep/chase setups
• intraday continuation plays
Options Mode is fully optional.
SQS remains complete and accurate without it.
⭐ WHY TRADERS USE 🜁 MARKETMIND PRO
✓ Avoid low-quality environments
No more wasting time in chop, illiquid tickers, or dead setups.
✓ Spot opportunity faster
A single glance tells you whether a ticker is heating up or not worth your time.
✓ Build confidence and clarity
You understand why the environment is favorable—or why it isn’t.
✓ Streamline your scanning routine
🜁 MarketMind PRO was engineered for fast, repeatable workflows.
✓ Stay aligned with broader market structure
Bias and regime context are always visible.
⭐ WHO 🜁 MARKETMIND PRO IS FOR
• Day traders
• Swing traders
• Options traders
• Pre-Market scanners
• Pre-Close overnight hunters
• Momentum, trend, and structure traders
• Systematic/algo traders who need human-readable context
If you value context first, decisions second, this tool was built for you.
⭐ RECOMMENDED SETTINGS & WORKFLOW
• Use Pre-Close Mode 15:30–16:00 ET for overnight setups
• Use Pre-Market Mode 07:00–09:30 ET for gap filtering & open-drive candidates
• Enable Options Mode only if your strategy benefits from flow context
• Keep HUD in Top Right for the cleanest chart layout
• Turn OFF Inputs/Values in Status Line for optimal display
⭐ IMPORTANT NOTES
• 🜁 MarketMind PRO is a context engine, not a buy/sell signal
• It pairs best with your existing strategy or system
• No proprietary signals or predictions are provided
• SQS is session-aware and adapts automatically
• Options Flow is intentionally conservative—greens are rare and meaningful
⭐ FINAL THOUGHTS
🜁 MarketMind PRO v1.0 is built for the modern trader who wants clarity, speed, and conviction.
It provides the macro, micro, structure, and flow context needed to choose smarter setups—without guessing or over-analyzing.
If you want a clean, disciplined way to identify when a ticker truly deserves your attention…
🜁 MarketMind PRO is the missing piece of your workflow.
HD Trades📊 ICT Confluence Toolkit (FVG, OB, SMT)
This All-in-One indicator is designed for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders, providing visual confirmation and signaling for three critical Inner Circle Trader (ICT) tools directly on your chart: Fair Value Gaps (FVG), Order Blocks (OB), and Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence.
It eliminates the need to load multiple indicators, streamlining your analysis for high-probability setups.
🔑 Key Features
1. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
Automatic Detection: Instantly highlights bullish (buy-side) and bearish (sell-side) imbalances using the standard three-candle pattern.
Real-Time Mitigation: Gaps are drawn until price trades into the FVG zone, at which point the indicator automatically "mitigates" and removes the box, ensuring your chart stays clean.
2. Order Blocks (OB)
Impulse-Based Logic: Identifies valid Order Blocks (the last opposing candle) confirmed by a strong, structure-breaking impulse move, quantified using an Average True Range (ATR) multiplier for dynamic sensitivity.
Mitigation Tracking: Bullish OBs are tracked until broken below the low, and Bearish OBs until broken above the high, distinguishing between active supply/demand zones.
3. SMT Divergence (Smart Money Technique)
Multi-Asset Comparison: Utilizes the Pine Script request.security() function to compare the swing structure of the current chart against a correlated asset (e.g., EURUSD vs. GBPUSD, or ES vs. NQ).
Signal Labels: Plots clear 🐂 SMT (Bullish) or 🐻 SMT (Bearish) labels directly on the chart when a divergence in market extremes is detected, signaling a potential reversal or continuation based on internal market weakness.
⚙️ Customization
All three components are toggleable and feature customizable colors and lookback periods, allowing you to fine-tune the indicator to your specific trading strategy and preferred timeframes.
Crucial Setup: For SMT Divergence to function, you must enter a correlated symbol (e.g., NQ1!, ES1!, or a related Forex pair) in the indicator settings.
Advanced Key Levels ProHere's a professional publication text for your TradingView indicator:
Title:
Advanced Key Levels Pro - Multi-Timeframe Support & Resistance
Short Description (max 400 characters):
Professional key levels indicator featuring Yesterday's High/Low/Close, Premarket levels, Opening Range, VWAP, Weekly/Monthly pivots, ATR zones, touch counting, confluence detection, and smart proximity filtering. Perfect for day traders and swing traders.
Full Description:
Advanced Key Levels Pro is a comprehensive support and resistance indicator designed for professional day traders and swing traders who need precise, actionable price levels.
🎯 KEY FEATURES:
📊 Essential Price Levels:
Yesterday's High, Low, and Close
Premarket High and Low (customizable session)
Today's Open
Opening Range (customizable minutes)
Daily VWAP
Previous Week High/Low
Previous Month High/Low
🔥 Advanced Features:
ATR Zones: Dynamic zones around key levels based on volatility
Touch Counter: Tracks how many times price tested each level
Strength Indicator: Colors levels by their strength/importance
Confluence Detection: Automatically highlights areas where multiple levels cluster
Smart Proximity Mode: Hides distant levels to reduce chart clutter
Distance Calculator: Shows exact distance and percentage to each level
📈 Visual Enhancements:
Clean, customizable labels with all critical information
Adjustable line width and label sizes
Color-coded levels for quick identification
Statistics table showing all active levels and distances
Background highlighting for confluence zones
Transparent design that doesn't obstruct price action
⚙️ Customization Options:
Toggle any level on/off independently
Adjust session times for premarket and market hours
Customize opening range duration (1-240 minutes)
Set proximity distance threshold
Modify ATR length and multiplier
Configure confluence detection sensitivity
Fully customizable color scheme
🔔 Alert System:
Price proximity alerts for key levels
Customizable alert distance threshold
Once-per-bar alert frequency
💡 Perfect For:
Day traders looking for intraday support/resistance
Scalpers who need precise entry/exit points
Swing traders tracking multi-day levels
Anyone trading breakouts or reversals at key levels
📋 Use Cases:
Identify high-probability reversal zones
Plan entries and exits around key levels
Spot breakout opportunities
Recognize areas of institutional interest
Track daily range expansion
✅ Benefits:
Saves time analyzing multiple timeframes
Reduces decision paralysis with clear levels
Improves risk/reward ratios
Works on all markets (stocks, forex, crypto, futures)
Compatible with any trading strategy
Multi-timeframe key levels (daily, weekly, monthly)
Premarket and opening range tracking
ATR-based dynamic zones
Touch counting and strength indicators
Confluence detection system
Smart proximity filtering
Comprehensive statistics table
Customizable alerts
Full color and display customization
How to Use:
Add the indicator to your chart
Customize which levels you want to display in settings
Adjust proximity mode to show only nearby levels
Enable alerts for important price levels
Use the statistics table to monitor distances
Best Practices:
Use on 1-5 minute charts for day trading
Enable proximity mode on busy charts
Combine with volume analysis for confirmation
Watch for price reactions at confluence zones
Set alerts slightly before key levels
Support:
If you find this indicator helpful, please leave a like and comment! For questions or feature requests, feel free to reach out.
Settings Quick Reference:
Display Options: Show/hide individual level groups
Enhanced Features: ATR zones, touch counting, confluence
Smart Display: Proximity filtering, distance labels
Session Times: Customize premarket and market hours
Visual: Line width, label size, colors
Alerts: Enable and configure price alerts
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Hybrid Flow Master📊 Hybrid Flow Master - Professional Trading Indicator
Overview
Hybrid Flow Master is an advanced all-in-one trading indicator that combines Smart Money Concepts, institutional order flow analysis, and multi-timeframe confluence scoring to identify high-probability trade setups. Designed for both scalpers and swing traders across all markets (Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices).
🎯 Key Features
1. Intelligent Confluence System (0-100% Scoring) Proprietary scoring algorithm that weighs multiple factors Only signals when minimum confidence threshold is met
Real-time probability calculations for each setup Signal quality grading: A+, A, B, C ratings
2. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Automatic Order Block detection (bullish/bearish) Fair Value Gap (FVG) identification
Market structure analysis (Higher Highs, Lower Lows) Swing high/low tracking with visual markers
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Higher timeframe trend filter for confluence Customizable HTF periods (1H, 4H, Daily, etc.)
Prevents counter-trend trades Aligns entries with major trends
4. Volume Flow Analysis
Volume spike detection with customizable thresholds Volume delta calculations (buying vs selling pressure) Institutional footprint identification Background highlighting for high-volume bars
5. Advanced Risk Management
ATR-based stop loss calculation Automatic take profit levels Customizable risk/reward ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:3+) Visual SL/TP lines on chart Position sizing guidance
6. Professional Dashboard
Real-time HUD displaying:
Market bias (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
Higher timeframe trend status
Current confluence percentage
Volume status (Normal/High)
RSI reading with color coding
ATR volatility measure
Signal quality grade
7. Smart Alert System
Bullish confluence signals
Bearish confluence signals
Volume spike notifications
Customizable alert messages
Works with mobile app notifications
📈 What Makes It Unique?
✅ No Repainting - All signals are confirmed and final
✅ Probability-Based - Shows confidence level, not just binary signals
✅ Multi-Factor Confluence - Combines structure, volume, momentum, and HTF analysis
✅ Clean Interface - Toggle individual components on/off
✅ Works on All Timeframes - From 1-minute scalping to daily swing trading
✅ Universal Markets - Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices, Commodities
🎨 Customization Options
Adjustable swing detection length
Volume threshold settings
Minimum confluence score filter
Custom color schemes
Dashboard position (4 corners)
Show/hide individual components
Risk/reward ratio adjustment
ATR multiplier for stops
📊 Best Used For:
✔️ Scalping (1m - 15m charts)
✔️ Day Trading (15m - 1H charts)
✔️ Swing Trading (4H - Daily charts)
✔️ Trend Following
✔️ Reversal Trading
✔️ Breakout Trading
💡 How to Use:
Add indicator to chart - Works immediately with default settings Set your timeframe - Choose your trading style Wait for signals - Green BUY or Red SELL labels with confidence %
Check confluence score - Higher % = better quality setup Review dashboard - Confirm market bias and HTF trend Manage risk - Use provided SL/TP levels or adjust to your preference
Set alerts - Get notified of high-probability setups
⚙️ Recommended Settings:
For Scalping (1m-5m):
Swing Length: 5-7
Min Confluence: 70%
HTF: 15m or 1H
For Day Trading (15m-1H):
Swing Length: 10-15
Min Confluence: 60%
HTF: 4H or Daily
For Swing Trading (4H-Daily):
Swing Length: 15-20
Min Confluence: 50-60%
HTF: Weekly
📚 Indicator Components:
✦ Market Structure Detection
✦ Order Block Identification
✦ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
✦ Volume Analysis
✦ RSI (14)
✦ MACD (12, 26, 9)
✦ ATR (14)
✦ Multi-Timeframe Trend
✦ Confluence Scoring Algorithm
🚀 Performance Notes:
Optimized for speed and efficiency Minimal CPU usage Clean chart presentation
Limited drawing objects (no chart clutter) Works on all TradingView plans
⚠️ Important Notes:
This indicator is a tool to assist trading decisions, not financial advice Always use proper risk management (1-2% per trade recommended) Backtest on your preferred market and timeframe
Combine with your own analysis and strategy Past performance does not guarantee future results
🔔 Alert Setup:
Right-click indicator name → "Add Alert" → Choose:
"Bullish Confluence Signal" for buy setups
"Bearish Confluence Signal" for sell setups
"Volume Spike Alert" for unusual activity
💬 Support:
For questions, suggestions, or custom modifications, feel free to message me directly through TradingView.
Kernel Market Dynamics [WFO - MAB]Kernel Market Dynamics
⚛️ CORE INNOVATION: KERNEL-BASED DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
The Kernel Market Dynamics system represents a fundamental departure from traditional technical indicators. Rather than measuring price levels, momentum, or oscillator extremes, KMD analyzes the statistical distribution of market returns using advanced kernel methods from machine learning theory. This allows the system to detect when market behavior has fundamentally changed—not just when price has moved, but when the underlying probability structure has shifted.
The Distribution Hypothesis:
Traditional indicators assume markets move in predictable patterns. KMD assumes something more profound: markets exist in distinct distributional regimes , and profitable trading opportunities emerge during regime transitions . When the distribution of recent returns diverges significantly from the historical baseline, the market is restructuring—and that's when edge exists.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD):
At the heart of KMD lies a sophisticated statistical metric called Maximum Mean Discrepancy. MMD measures the distance between two probability distributions by comparing their representations in a high-dimensional feature space created by a kernel function.
The Mathematics:
Given two sets of normalized returns:
• Reference period (X) : Historical baseline (default 100 bars)
• Test period (Y) : Recent behavior (default 20 bars)
MMD is calculated as:
MMD² = E + E - 2·E
Where:
• E = Expected kernel similarity within reference period
• E = Expected kernel similarity within test period
• E = Expected cross-similarity between periods
When MMD is low : Test period behaves like reference (stable regime)
When MMD is high : Test period diverges from reference (regime shift)
The final MMD value is smoothed with EMA(5) to reduce single-bar noise while maintaining responsiveness to genuine distribution changes.
The Kernel Functions:
The kernel function defines how similarity is measured. KMD offers four mathematically distinct kernels, each with different properties:
1. RBF (Radial Basis Function / Gaussian):
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-d² / (2·σ²·scale))
• Properties: Most sensitive to distribution changes, smooth decision boundaries
• Best for: Clean data, clear regime shifts, low-noise markets
• Sensitivity: Highest - detects subtle changes
• Use case: Stock indices, major forex pairs, trending environments
2. Laplacian:
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-|d| / σ)
• Properties: Medium sensitivity, robust to moderate outliers
• Best for: Standard market conditions, balanced noise/signal
• Sensitivity: Medium - filters minor fluctuations
• Use case: Commodities, standard timeframes, general trading
3. Cauchy (Default - Most Robust):
• Formula: k(x,y) = 1 / (1 + d²/σ²)
• Properties: Heavy-tailed, highly robust to outliers and spikes
• Best for: Noisy markets, choppy conditions, crypto volatility
• Sensitivity: Lower - only major distribution shifts trigger
• Use case: Cryptocurrencies, illiquid markets, volatile instruments
4. Rational Quadratic:
• Formula: k(x,y) = (1 + d²/(2·α·σ²))^(-α)
• Properties: Tunable via alpha parameter, mixture of RBF kernels
• Alpha < 1.0: Heavy tails (like Cauchy)
• Alpha > 3.0: Light tails (like RBF)
• Best for: Adaptive use, mixed market conditions
• Use case: Experimental optimization, regime-specific tuning
Bandwidth (σ) Parameter:
The bandwidth controls the "width" of the kernel, determining sensitivity to return differences:
• Low bandwidth (0.5-1.5) : Narrow kernel, very sensitive
- Treats small differences as significant
- More MMD spikes, more signals
- Use for: Scalping, fast markets
• Medium bandwidth (1.5-3.0) : Balanced sensitivity (recommended)
- Filters noise while catching real shifts
- Professional-grade signal quality
- Use for: Day/swing trading
• High bandwidth (3.0-10.0) : Wide kernel, less sensitive
- Only major distribution changes register
- Fewer, stronger signals
- Use for: Position trading, trend following
Adaptive Bandwidth:
When enabled (default ON), bandwidth automatically scales with market volatility:
Effective_BW = Base_BW × max(0.5, min(2.0, 1 / volatility_ratio))
• Low volatility → Tighter bandwidth (0.5× base) → More sensitive
• High volatility → Wider bandwidth (2.0× base) → Less sensitive
This prevents signal flooding during wild markets and avoids signal drought during calm periods.
Why Kernels Work:
Kernel methods implicitly map data to infinite-dimensional space where complex, nonlinear patterns become linearly separable. This allows MMD to detect distribution changes that simpler statistics (mean, variance) would miss. For example:
• Same mean, different shape : Traditional metrics see nothing, MMD detects shift
• Same volatility, different skew : Oscillators miss it, MMD catches it
• Regime rotation : Price unchanged, but return distribution restructured
The kernel captures the entire distributional signature —not just first and second moments.
🎰 MULTI-ARMED BANDIT FRAMEWORK: ADAPTIVE STRATEGY SELECTION
Rather than forcing one strategy on all market conditions, KMD implements a Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) system that learns which of seven distinct strategies performs best and dynamically selects the optimal approach in real-time.
The Seven Arms (Strategies):
Each arm represents a fundamentally different trading logic:
ARM 0 - MMD Regime Shift:
• Logic: Distribution divergence with directional bias
• Triggers: MMD > threshold AND direction_bias confirmed AND velocity > 5%
• Philosophy: Trade the regime transition itself
• Best in: Volatile shifts, breakout moments, crisis periods
• Weakness: False alarms in choppy consolidation
ARM 1 - Trend Following:
• Logic: Aligned EMAs with strong ADX
• Triggers: EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) AND ADX > 25
• Philosophy: Ride established momentum
• Best in: Strong trending regimes, directional markets
• Weakness: Late entries, whipsaws at reversals
ARM 2 - Breakout:
• Logic: Bollinger Band breakouts with volume
• Triggers: Price crosses BB outer band AND volume > 1.2× average
• Philosophy: Capture volatility expansion events
• Best in: Range breakouts, earnings, news events
• Weakness: False breakouts in ranging markets
ARM 3 - RSI Mean Reversion:
• Logic: RSI extremes with reversal confirmation
• Triggers: RSI < 30 with uptick OR RSI > 70 with downtick
• Philosophy: Fade overbought/oversold extremes
• Best in: Ranging markets, mean-reverting instruments
• Weakness: Fails in strong trends, catches falling knives
ARM 4 - Z-Score Statistical Reversion:
• Logic: Price deviation from 50-period mean
• Triggers: Z-score < -2 (oversold) OR > +2 (overbought) with reversal
• Philosophy: Statistical bounds reversion
• Best in: Stable volatility regimes, pairs trading
• Weakness: Trend continuation through extremes
ARM 5 - ADX Momentum:
• Logic: Strong directional movement with acceleration
• Triggers: ADX > 30 with DI+ or DI- strengthening
• Philosophy: Momentum begets momentum
• Best in: Trending with increasing velocity
• Weakness: Late exits, momentum exhaustion
ARM 6 - Volume Confirmation:
• Logic: OBV trend + volume spike + candle direction
• Triggers: OBV > EMA(20) AND volume > average AND bullish candle
• Philosophy: Follow institutional money flow
• Best in: Liquid markets with reliable volume
• Weakness: Manipulated volume, thin markets
Q-Learning with Rewards:
Each arm maintains a Q-value representing its expected reward. After every bar, the system calculates a reward based on the arm's signal and actual price movement:
Reward Calculation:
If arm signaled LONG:
reward = (close - close ) / close
If arm signaled SHORT:
reward = -(close - close ) / close
If arm signaled NEUTRAL:
reward = 0
Penalty multiplier: If loss > 0.5%, reward × 1.3 (punish big losses harder)
Q-Value Update (Exponential Moving Average):
Q_new = Q_old + α × (reward - Q_old)
Where α (learning rate, default 0.08) controls adaptation speed:
• Low α (0.01-0.05): Slow, stable learning
• Medium α (0.06-0.12): Balanced (recommended)
• High α (0.15-0.30): Fast, reactive learning
This gradually shifts Q-values toward arms that generate positive returns and away from losing arms.
Arm Selection Algorithms:
KMD offers four mathematically distinct selection strategies:
1. UCB1 (Upper Confidence Bound) - Recommended:
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + c·√(ln(t)/n_i))
Where:
• Q_i = Q-value of arm i
• c = exploration constant (default 1.5)
• t = total pulls across all arms
• n_i = pulls of arm i
Philosophy: Balance exploitation (use best arm) with exploration (try uncertain arms). The √(ln(t)/n_i) term creates an "exploration bonus" that decreases as an arm gets more pulls, ensuring all arms get sufficient testing.
Theoretical guarantee: Logarithmic regret bound - UCB1 provably converges to optimal arm selection over time.
2. UCB1-Tuned (Variance-Aware UCB):
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + √(ln(t)/n_i × min(0.25, V_i + √(2·ln(t)/n_i))))
Where V_i = variance of rewards for arm i
Philosophy: Incorporates reward variance into exploration. Arms with high variance (unpredictable) get less exploration bonus, focusing effort on stable performers.
Better bounds than UCB1 in practice, slightly more conservative exploration.
3. Epsilon-Greedy (Simple Random):
Algorithm:
With probability ε: Select random arm (explore)
With probability 1-ε: Select highest Q-value arm (exploit)
Default ε = 0.10 (10% exploration, 90% exploitation)
Philosophy: Simplest algorithm, easy to understand. Random exploration ensures all arms stay updated but may waste time on clearly bad arms.
4. Thompson Sampling (Bayesian):
The most sophisticated selection algorithm, using true Bayesian probability.
Each arm maintains Beta distribution parameters:
• α (alpha) = successes + 1
• β (beta) = failures + 1
Selection Process:
1. Sample θ_i ~ Beta(α_i, β_i) for each arm using Marsaglia-Tsang Gamma sampler
2. Select arm with highest sample: argmax_i(θ_i)
3. After reward, update:
- If reward > 0: α += |reward| × 100 (increment successes)
- If reward < 0: β += |reward| × 100 (increment failures)
Why Thompson Sampling Works:
The Beta distribution naturally represents uncertainty about an arm's true win rate. Early on with few trials, the distribution is wide (high uncertainty), leading to more exploration. As evidence accumulates, it narrows around the true performance, naturally shifting toward exploitation.
Unlike UCB which uses deterministic confidence bounds, Thompson Sampling is probabilistic—it samples from the posterior distribution of each arm's success rate, providing automatic exploration/exploitation balance without tuning.
Comparison:
• UCB1: Deterministic, guaranteed regret bounds, requires tuning exploration constant
• Thompson: Probabilistic, natural exploration, no tuning required, best empirical performance
• Epsilon-Greedy: Simplest, consistent exploration %, less efficient
• UCB1-Tuned: UCB1 + variance awareness, best for risk-averse
Exploration Constant (c):
For UCB algorithms, this multiplies the exploration bonus:
• Low c (0.5-1.0): Strongly prefer proven arms, rare exploration
• Medium c (1.2-1.8): Balanced (default 1.5)
• High c (2.0-3.0): Frequent exploration, diverse arm usage
Higher exploration constant in volatile/unstable markets, lower in stable trending environments.
🔬 WALK-FORWARD OPTIMIZATION: PREVENTING OVERFITTING
The single biggest problem in algorithmic trading is overfitting—strategies that look amazing in backtest but fail in live trading because they learned noise instead of signal. KMD's Walk-Forward Optimization system addresses this head-on.
How WFO Works:
The system divides time into repeating cycles:
1. Training Window (default 500 bars): Learn arm Q-values on historical data
2. Testing Window (default 100 bars): Validate on unseen "future" data
Training Phase:
• All arms accumulate rewards and update Q-values normally
• Q_train tracks in-sample performance
• System learns which arms work on historical data
Testing Phase:
• System continues using arms but tracks separate Q_test metrics
• Counts trades per arm (N_test)
• Testing performance is "out-of-sample" relative to training
Validation Requirements:
An arm is only "validated" (approved for live use) if:
1. N_test ≥ Minimum Trades (default 10): Sufficient statistical sample
2. Q_test > 0 : Positive out-of-sample performance
Arms that fail validation are blocked from generating signals, preventing the system from trading strategies that only worked on historical data.
Performance Decay:
At the end of each WFO cycle, all Q-values decay exponentially:
Q_new = Q_old × decay_rate (default 0.95)
This ensures old performance doesn't dominate forever. An arm that worked 10 cycles ago but fails recently will eventually lose influence.
Decay Math:
• 0.95 decay after 10 periods → 0.95^10 = 0.60 (40% forgotten)
• 0.90 decay after 10 periods → 0.90^10 = 0.35 (65% forgotten)
Fast decay (0.80-0.90): Quick adaptation, forgets old patterns rapidly
Slow decay (0.96-0.99): Stable, retains historical knowledge longer
WFO Efficiency Metric:
The key metric revealing overfitting:
Efficiency = (Q_test / Q_train) for each validated arm, averaged
• Efficiency > 0.8 : Excellent - strategies generalize well (LOW overfit risk)
• Efficiency 0.5-0.8 : Acceptable - moderate generalization (MODERATE risk)
• Efficiency < 0.5 : Poor - strategies curve-fitted to history (HIGH risk)
If efficiency is low, the system has learned noise. Training performance was good but testing (forward) performance is weak—classic overfitting.
The dashboard displays real-time WFO efficiency, allowing users to gauge system robustness. Low efficiency should trigger parameter review or reduced position sizing.
Why WFO Matters:
Consider two scenarios:
Scenario A - No WFO:
• Arm 3 (RSI Reversion) shows Q-value of 0.15 on all historical data
• System trades it aggressively
• Reality: It only worked during one specific ranging period
• Live trading: Fails because market has trended since backtest
Scenario B - With WFO:
• Arm 3 shows Q_train = 0.15 (good in training)
• But Q_test = -0.05 (loses in testing) with 12 test trades
• N_test ≥ 10 but Q_test < 0 → Arm BLOCKED
• System refuses to trade it despite good backtest
• Live trading: Protected from false strategy
WFO ensures only strategies that work going forward get used, not just strategies that fit the past.
Optimal Window Sizing:
Training Window:
• Too short (100-300): May learn recent noise, insufficient data
• Too long (1000-2000): May include obsolete market regimes
• Recommended: 4-6× testing window (default 500)
Testing Window:
• Too short (50-80): Insufficient validation, high variance
• Too long (300-500): Delayed adaptation to regime changes
• Recommended: 1/5 to 1/4 of training (default 100)
Minimum Trades:
• Too low (5-8): Statistical noise, lucky runs validate
• Too high (30-50): Many arms never validate, system rarely trades
• Recommended: 10-15 (default 10)
⚖️ WEIGHTED CONFLUENCE SYSTEM: MULTI-FACTOR SIGNAL QUALITY
Not all signals are created equal. KMD implements a sophisticated 100-point quality scoring system that combines eight independent factors with different importance weights.
The Scoring Framework:
Each potential signal receives a quality score from 0-100 by accumulating points from aligned factors:
CRITICAL FACTORS (20 points each):
1. Bandit Arm Alignment (20 points):
• Full points if selected arm's signal matches trade direction
• Zero points if arm disagrees
• Weight: Highest - the bandit selected this arm for a reason
2. MMD Regime Quality (20 points):
• Requires: MMD > dynamic threshold AND directional bias confirmed
• Scaled by MMD percentile (how extreme vs history)
• If MMD in top 10% of history: 100% of 20 points
• If MMD at 50th percentile: 50% of 20 points
• Weight: Highest - distribution shift is the core signal
HIGH IMPACT FACTORS (15 points each):
3. Trend Alignment (15 points):
• Full points if EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) for longs (inverse for shorts)
• Scaled by ADX strength:
- ADX > 25: 100% (1.0× multiplier) - strong trend
- ADX 20-25: 70% (0.7× multiplier) - moderate trend
- ADX < 20: 40% (0.4× multiplier) - weak trend
• Weight: High - trend is friend, alignment increases probability
4. Volume Confirmation (15 points):
• Requires: OBV > EMA(OBV, 20) aligned with direction
• Scaled by volume ratio: vol_current / vol_average
- Volume 1.5×+ average: 100% of points (institutional participation)
- Volume 1.0-1.5× average: 67% of points (above average)
- Volume below average: 0 points (weak conviction)
• Weight: High - volume validates price moves
MODERATE FACTORS (10 points each):
5. Market Structure (10 points):
• Full points (10) if bullish structure (higher highs, higher lows) for longs
• Partial points (6) if near support level (within 1% of swing low)
• Similar logic inverted for bearish trades
• Weight: Moderate - structure context improves entries
6. RSI Positioning (10 points):
• For long signals:
- RSI < 50: 100% of points (1.0× multiplier) - room to run
- RSI 50-60: 60% of points (0.6× multiplier) - neutral
- RSI 60-70: 30% of points (0.3× multiplier) - elevated
- RSI > 70: 0 points (0× multiplier) - overbought
• Inverse for short signals
• Weight: Moderate - momentum context, not primary signal
BONUS FACTORS (10 points each):
7. Divergence (10 points):
• Full 10 points if bullish divergence detected for long (or bearish for short)
• Zero points otherwise
• Weight: Bonus - leading indicator, adds confidence when present
8. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation (10 points):
• Full 10 points if higher timeframe aligned (HTF EMA trending same direction, RSI supportive)
• Zero points if MTF disabled or HTF opposes
• Weight: Bonus - macro context filter, prevents counter-trend disasters
Total Maximum: 110 points (20+20+15+15+10+10+10+10)
Signal Quality Calculation:
Quality Score = (Accumulated_Points / Maximum_Possible) × 100
Where Maximum_Possible = 110 points if all factors active, adjusts if MTF disabled.
Example Calculation:
Long signal candidate:
• Bandit Arm: +20 (arm signals long)
• MMD Quality: +16 (MMD high, 80th percentile)
• Trend: +11 (EMAs aligned, ADX = 22 → 70% × 15)
• Volume: +10 (OBV rising, vol 1.3× avg → 67% × 15 = 10)
• Structure: +10 (higher lows forming)
• RSI: +6 (RSI = 55 → 60% × 10)
• Divergence: +0 (none present)
• MTF: +10 (HTF bullish)
Total: 83 / 110 × 100 = 75.5% quality score
This is an excellent quality signal - well above threshold (default 60%).
Quality Thresholds:
• Score 80-100 : Exceptional setup - all factors aligned
• Score 60-80 : High quality - most factors supportive (default minimum)
• Score 40-60 : Moderate - mixed confluence, proceed with caution
• Score 20-40 : Weak - minimal support, likely filtered out
• Score 0-20 : Very weak - almost certainly blocked
The minimum quality threshold (default 60) is the gatekeeper. Only signals scoring above this value can trigger trades.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment:
The system optionally adjusts the threshold based on historical signal distribution:
If Dynamic Threshold enabled:
Recent_MMD_Mean = SMA(MMD, 50)
Recent_MMD_StdDev = StdDev(MMD, 50)
Dynamic_Threshold = max(Base_Threshold × 0.5,
min(Base_Threshold × 2.0,
MMD_Mean + MMD_StdDev × 0.5))
This auto-calibrates to market conditions:
• Quiet markets (low MMD): Threshold loosens (0.5× base)
• Active markets (high MMD): Threshold tightens (2× base)
Signal Ranking Filter:
When enabled, the system tracks the last 100 signal quality scores and only fires signals in the top percentile.
If Ranking Percentile = 75%:
• Collect last 100 signal scores in memory
• Sort ascending
• Threshold = Score at 75th percentile position
• Only signals ≥ this threshold fire
This ensures you're only taking the cream of the crop —top 25% of signals by quality, not every signal that technically qualifies.
🚦 SIGNAL GENERATION: TRANSITION LOGIC & COOLDOWNS
The confluence system determines if a signal qualifies , but the signal generation logic controls when triangles appear on the chart.
Core Qualification:
For a LONG signal to qualify:
1. Bull quality score ≥ signal threshold (default 60)
2. Selected arm signals +1 (long)
3. Cooldown satisfied (bars since last signal ≥ cooldown period)
4. Drawdown protection OK (current drawdown < pause threshold)
5. MMD ≥ 80% of dynamic threshold (slight buffer below full threshold)
For a SHORT signal to qualify:
1. Bear quality score ≥ signal threshold
2. Selected arm signals -1 (short)
3-5. Same as long
But qualification alone doesn't trigger a chart signal.
Three Signal Modes:
1. RESPONSIVE (Default - Recommended):
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification (wasn't qualified last bar, now is)
• Direction reversal (was qualified short, now qualified long)
• Quality improvement (already qualified, quality jumps 25%+ during EXTREME regime)
This mode shows new opportunities and significant upgrades without cluttering the chart with repeat signals.
2. TRANSITION ONLY:
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification only
• Direction reversal only
This is the cleanest mode - signals only when first qualifying or when flipping direction. Misses re-entries if quality improves mid-regime.
3. CONTINUOUS:
Signals appear on:
• Every bar that qualifies
Testing/debugging mode - shows all qualified bars. Very noisy but useful for understanding when system wants to trade.
Cooldown System:
Prevents signal clustering and overtrading by enforcing minimum bars between signals.
Base Cooldown: User-defined (default 5 bars)
Adaptive Cooldown (Optional):
If enabled, cooldown scales with volatility:
Effective_Cooldown = Base_Cooldown × volatility_multiplier
Where:
ATR_Pct = ATR(14) / Close × 100
Volatility_Multiplier = max(0.5, min(3.0, ATR_Pct / 2.0))
• Low volatility (ATR 1%): Multiplier ~0.5× → Cooldown = 2-3 bars (tight)
• Medium volatility (ATR 2%): Multiplier 1.0× → Cooldown = 5 bars (normal)
• High volatility (ATR 4%+): Multiplier 2.0-3.0× → Cooldown = 10-15 bars (wide)
This prevents excessive trading during wild swings while allowing more signals during calm periods.
Regime Filter:
Three modes controlling which regimes allow trading:
OFF: Trade in any regime (STABLE, TRENDING, SHIFTING, ELEVATED, EXTREME)
SMART (Recommended):
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED (optimal)
• Regime score = 0.8 for TRENDING (acceptable)
• Regime score = 0.5 for EXTREME (too chaotic)
• Regime score = 0.2 for STABLE (too quiet)
Quality scores are multiplied by regime score. A 70% quality signal in STABLE regime becomes 70% × 0.2 = 14% → blocked.
STRICT:
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED only
• Regime score = 0.0 for all others → hard block
Only trades during optimal distribution shift regimes.
Drawdown Protection:
If current equity drawdown exceeds pause threshold (default 8%), all signals are blocked until equity recovers.
This circuit breaker prevents compounding losses during adverse conditions or broken market structure.
🎯 RISK MANAGEMENT: ATR-BASED STOPS & TARGETS
Every signal generates volatility-normalized stop loss and target levels displayed as boxes on the chart.
Stop Loss Calculation:
Stop_Distance = ATR(14) × ATR_Multiplier (default 1.5)
For LONG: Stop = Entry - Stop_Distance
For SHORT: Stop = Entry + Stop_Distance
The stop is placed 1.5 ATRs away from entry by default, adapting automatically to instrument volatility.
Target Calculation:
Target_Distance = Stop_Distance × Risk_Reward_Ratio (default 2.0)
For LONG: Target = Entry + Target_Distance
For SHORT: Target = Entry - Target_Distance
Default 2:1 risk/reward means target is twice as far as stop.
Example:
• Price: $100
• ATR: $2
• ATR Multiplier: 1.5
• Risk/Reward: 2.0
LONG Signal:
• Entry: $100
• Stop: $100 - ($2 × 1.5) = $97.00 (-$3 risk)
• Target: $100 + ($3 × 2.0) = $106.00 (+$6 reward)
• Risk/Reward: $3 risk for $6 reward = 1:2 ratio
Target/Stop Box Lifecycle:
Boxes persist for a lifetime (default 20 bars) OR until an opposite signal fires, whichever comes first. This provides visual reference for active trade levels without permanent chart clutter.
When a new opposite-direction signal appears, all existing boxes from the previous direction are immediately deleted, ensuring only relevant levels remain visible.
Adaptive Stop/Target Sizing:
While not explicitly coded in the current version, the shadow portfolio tracking system calculates PnL based on these levels. Users can observe which ATR multipliers and risk/reward ratios produce optimal results for their instrument/timeframe via the dashboard performance metrics.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE VISUAL SYSTEM
KMD provides rich visual feedback through four distinct layers:
1. PROBABILITY CLOUD (Adaptive Volatility Bands):
Two sets of bands around price that expand/contract with MMD:
Calculation:
Std_Multiplier = 1 + MMD × 3
Upper_1σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Lower_1σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Upper_2σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier
Lower_2σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier
• Inner band (±0.5× adjusted ATR) : 68% probability zone (1 standard deviation equivalent)
• Outer band (±1.0× adjusted ATR) : 95% probability zone (2 standard deviation equivalent)
When MMD spikes, bands widen dramatically, showing increased uncertainty. When MMD calms, bands tighten, showing normal price action.
2. MOMENTUM FLOW VECTORS (Directional Arrows):
Dynamic arrows that visualize momentum strength and direction:
Arrow Properties:
• Length: Proportional to momentum magnitude (2-10 bars forward)
• Width: 1px (weak), 2px (medium), 3px (strong)
• Transparency: 30-100 (more opaque = stronger momentum)
• Direction: Up for bullish, down for bearish
• Placement: Below bars (bulls) or above bars (bears)
Trigger Logic:
• Always appears every 5 bars (regular sampling)
• Forced appearance if momentum strength > 50 OR regime shift OR MMD velocity > 10%
Strong momentum (>75%) gets:
• Secondary support arrow (70% length, lighter color)
• Label showing "75%" strength
Very strong momentum (>60%) gets:
• Gradient flow lines (thick vertical lines showing momentum vector)
This creates a dynamic "flow field" showing where market pressure is pushing price.
3. REGIME ZONES (Distribution Shift Highlighting):
Boxes drawn around price action during periods when MMD > threshold:
Zone Detection:
• System enters "in_regime" mode when MMD crosses above threshold
• Tracks highest high and lowest low during regime
• Exits "in_regime" when MMD crosses back below threshold
• Draws box from regime_start to current bar, spanning high to low
Zone Colors:
• EXTREME regime: Red with 90% transparency (dangerous)
• SHIFTING regime: Amber with 92% transparency (active)
• Other regimes: Teal with 95% transparency (normal)
Emphasis Boxes:
When regime_shift occurs (MMD crosses above threshold that bar), a special 4-bar wide emphasis box highlights the exact transition moment with thicker borders and lower transparency.
This visual immediately shows "the market just changed" moments.
4. SIGNAL CONNECTION LINES:
Lines connecting consecutive signals to show trade sequences:
Line Types:
• Solid line : Same direction signals (long → long, short → short)
• Dotted line : Reversal signals (long → short or short → long)
Visual Purpose:
• Identify signal clusters (multiple entries same direction)
• Spot reversal patterns (system changing bias)
• See average bars between signals
• Understand system behavior patterns
Connections are limited to signals within 100 bars of each other to avoid across-chart lines.
📈 COMPREHENSIVE DASHBOARD: REAL-TIME SYSTEM STATE
The dashboard provides complete transparency into system internals with three size modes:
MINIMAL MODE:
• Header (Regime + WFO phase)
• Signal Status (LONG READY / SHORT READY / WAITING)
• Core metrics only
COMPACT MODE (Default):
• Everything in Minimal
• Kernel info
• Active bandit arm + validation
• WFO efficiency
• Confluence scores (bull/bear)
• MMD current value
• Position status (if active)
• Performance summary
FULL MODE:
• Everything in Compact
• Signal Quality Diagnostics:
- Bull quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- Bear quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- MMD threshold check (✓/✗)
- MMD percentile (top X% of history)
- Regime fit score (how well current regime suits trading)
- WFO confidence level (validation strength)
- Adaptive cooldown status (bars remaining vs required)
• All Arms Signals:
- Shows all 7 arm signals (▲/▼/○)
- Q-value for each arm
- Indicates selected arm with ◄
• Thompson Sampling Parameters (if TS mode):
- Alpha/Beta values for selected arm
- Probability estimate (α/(α+β))
• Extended Performance:
- Expectancy per trade
- Sharpe ratio with star rating
- Individual arm performance (if enough data)
Key Dashboard Sections:
REGIME: Current market regime (STABLE/TRENDING/SHIFTING/ELEVATED/EXTREME) with color-coded background
SIGNAL STATUS:
• "▲ LONG READY" (cyan) - Long signal qualified
• "▼ SHORT READY" (red) - Short signal qualified
• "○ WAITING" (gray) - No qualified signals
• Signal Mode displayed (Responsive/Transition/Continuous)
KERNEL:
• Active kernel type (RBF/Laplacian/Cauchy/Rational Quadratic)
• Current bandwidth (effective after adaptation)
• Adaptive vs Fixed indicator
• RBF scale (if RBF) or RQ alpha (if RQ)
BANDIT:
• Selection algorithm (UCB1/UCB1-Tuned/Epsilon/Thompson)
• Active arm name (MMD Shift, Trend, Breakout, etc.)
• Validation status (✓ if validated, ? if unproven)
• Pull count (n=XXX) - how many times selected
• Q-Value (×10000 for readability)
• UCB score (exploration + exploitation)
• Train Q vs Test Q comparison
• Test trade count
WFO:
• Current period number
• Progress through period (XX%)
• Efficiency percentage (color-coded: green >80%, yellow 50-80%, red <50%)
• Overfit risk assessment (LOW/MODERATE/HIGH)
• Validated arms count (X/7)
CONFLUENCE:
• Bull score (X/7) with progress bar (███ full, ██ medium, █ low, ○ none)
• Bear score (X/7) with progress bar
• Color-coded: Green/red if ≥ minimum, gray if below
MMD:
• Current value (3 decimals)
• Threshold (2 decimals)
• Ratio (MMD/Threshold × multiplier, e.g. "1.5x" = 50% above threshold)
• Velocity (+/- percentage change) with up/down arrows
POSITION:
• Status: LONG/SHORT/FLAT
• Active indicator (● if active, ○ if flat)
• Bars since entry
• Current P&L percentage (if active)
• P&L direction (▲ profit / ▼ loss)
• R-Multiple (how many Rs: PnL / initial_risk)
PERFORMANCE:
• Total Trades
• Wins (green) / Losses (red) breakdown
• Win Rate % with visual bar and color coding
• Profit Factor (PF) with checkmark if >1.0
• Expectancy % (average profit per trade)
• Sharpe Ratio with star rating (★★★ >2, ★★ >1, ★ >0, ○ negative)
• Max DD % (maximum drawdown) with "Now: X%" showing current drawdown
🔧 KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
Kernel Configuration:
• Kernel Function : RBF / Laplacian / Cauchy / Rational Quadratic
- Start with Cauchy for stability, experiment with others
• Bandwidth (σ) (0.5-10.0, default 2.0): Kernel sensitivity
- Lower: More signals, more false positives (scalping: 0.8-1.5)
- Medium: Balanced (swing: 1.5-3.0)
- Higher: Fewer signals, stronger quality (position: 3.0-8.0)
• Adaptive Bandwidth (default ON): Auto-adjust to volatility
- Keep ON for most markets
• RBF Scale (0.1-2.0, default 0.5): RBF-specific scaling
- Only matters if RBF kernel selected
- Lower = more sensitive (0.3 for scalping)
- Higher = less sensitive (1.0+ for position)
• RQ Alpha (0.5-5.0, default 2.0): Rational Quadratic tail behavior
- Only matters if RQ kernel selected
- Low (0.5-1.0): Heavy tails, robust to outliers (like Cauchy)
- High (3.0-5.0): Light tails, sensitive (like RBF)
Analysis Windows:
• Reference Period (30-500, default 100): Historical baseline
- Scalping: 50-80
- Intraday: 80-150
- Swing: 100-200
- Position: 200-500
• Test Period (5-100, default 20): Recent behavior window
- Should be 15-25% of Reference Period
- Scalping: 10-15
- Intraday: 15-25
- Swing: 20-40
- Position: 30-60
• Sample Size (10-40, default 20): Data points for MMD
- Lower: Faster, less reliable (scalping: 12-15)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 18-25)
- Higher: Slower, more reliable (position: 25-35)
Walk-Forward Optimization:
• Enable WFO (default ON): Master overfitting protection
- Always ON for live trading
• Training Window (100-2000, default 500): Learning data
- Should be 4-6× Testing Window
- 1m-5m: 300-500
- 15m-1h: 500-800
- 4h-1D: 500-1000
- 1D-1W: 800-2000
• Testing Window (50-500, default 100): Validation data
- Should be 1/5 to 1/4 of Training
- 1m-5m: 50-100
- 15m-1h: 80-150
- 4h-1D: 100-200
- 1D-1W: 150-500
• Min Trades for Validation (5-50, default 10): Statistical threshold
- Active traders: 8-12
- Position traders: 15-30
• Performance Decay (0.8-0.99, default 0.95): Old data forgetting
- Aggressive: 0.85-0.90 (volatile markets)
- Moderate: 0.92-0.96 (most use cases)
- Conservative: 0.97-0.99 (stable markets)
Multi-Armed Bandit:
• Learning Rate (α) (0.01-0.3, default 0.08): Adaptation speed
- Low: 0.01-0.05 (position trading, stable)
- Medium: 0.06-0.12 (day/swing trading)
- High: 0.15-0.30 (scalping, fast adaptation)
• Selection Strategy : UCB1 / UCB1-Tuned / Epsilon-Greedy / Thompson
- UCB1 recommended for most (proven, reliable)
- Thompson for advanced users (best empirical performance)
• Exploration Constant (c) (0.5-3.0, default 1.5): Explore vs exploit
- Low: 0.5-1.0 (conservative, proven strategies)
- Medium: 1.2-1.8 (balanced)
- High: 2.0-3.0 (experimental, volatile markets)
• Epsilon (0.0-0.3, default 0.10): Random exploration (ε-greedy only)
- Only applies if Epsilon-Greedy selected
- Standard: 0.10 (10% random)
Signal Configuration:
• MMD Threshold (0.05-1.0, default 0.15): Distribution divergence trigger
- Low: 0.08-0.12 (scalping, sensitive)
- Medium: 0.12-0.20 (day/swing)
- High: 0.25-0.50 (position, strong signals)
- Stocks/indices: 0.12-0.18
- Forex: 0.15-0.25
- Crypto: 0.20-0.35
• Confluence Filter (default ON): Multi-factor requirement
- Keep ON for quality signals
• Minimum Confluence (1-7, default 2): Factors needed
- Very low: 1 (high frequency)
- Low: 2-3 (active trading)
- Medium: 4-5 (swing)
- High: 6-7 (rare perfect setups)
• Cooldown (1-20, default 5): Bars between signals
- Short: 1-3 (scalping, allows rapid re-entry)
- Medium: 4-7 (day/swing)
- Long: 8-20 (position, ensures development)
• Signal Mode : Responsive / Transition Only / Continuous
- Responsive: Recommended (new + upgrades)
- Transition: Cleanest (first + reversals)
- Continuous: Testing (every qualified bar)
Advanced Signal Control:
• Minimum Signal Strength (30-90, default 60): Quality floor
- Lower: More signals (scalping: 40-50)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 55-65)
- Higher: Fewer signals (position: 70-80)
• Dynamic MMD Threshold (default ON): Auto-calibration
- Keep ON for adaptive behavior
• Signal Ranking Filter (default ON): Top percentile only
- Keep ON to trade only best signals
• Ranking Percentile (50-95, default 75): Selectivity
- 75 = top 25% of signals
- 85 = top 15% of signals
- 90 = top 10% of signals
• Adaptive Cooldown (default ON): Volatility-scaled spacing
- Keep ON for intelligent spacing
• Regime Filter : Off / Smart / Strict
- Off: Any regime (maximize frequency)
- Smart: Avoid extremes (recommended)
- Strict: Only optimal regimes (maximum quality)
Risk Parameters:
• Risk:Reward Ratio (1.0-5.0, default 2.0): Target distance multiplier
- Conservative: 1.0-1.5 (higher WR needed)
- Balanced: 2.0-2.5 (standard professional)
- Aggressive: 3.0-5.0 (lower WR acceptable)
• Stop Loss (ATR mult) (0.5-4.0, default 1.5): Stop distance
- Tight: 0.5-1.0 (scalping, low vol)
- Medium: 1.2-2.0 (day/swing)
- Wide: 2.5-4.0 (position, high vol)
• Pause After Drawdown (2-20%, default 8%): Circuit breaker
- Aggressive: 3-6% (small accounts)
- Moderate: 6-10% (most traders)
- Relaxed: 10-15% (large accounts)
Multi-Timeframe:
• MTF Confirmation (default OFF): Higher TF filter
- Turn ON for swing/position trading
- Keep OFF for scalping/day trading
• Higher Timeframe (default "60"): HTF for trend check
- Should be 3-5× chart timeframe
- 1m chart → 5m or 15m
- 5m chart → 15m or 60m
- 15m chart → 60m or 240m
- 1h chart → 240m or D
Display:
• Probability Cloud (default ON): Volatility bands
• Momentum Flow Vectors (default ON): Directional arrows
• Regime Zones (default ON): Distribution shift boxes
• Signal Connections (default ON): Lines between signals
• Dashboard (default ON): Stats table
• Dashboard Position : Top Left / Top Right / Bottom Left / Bottom Right
• Dashboard Size : Minimal / Compact / Full
• Color Scheme : Default / Monochrome / Warm / Cool
• Show MMD Debug Plot (default OFF): Overlay MMD value
- Turn ON temporarily for threshold calibration
🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
Phase 1: Parameter Calibration (Week 1)
Goal: Find optimal kernel and bandwidth for your instrument/timeframe
Setup:
• Enable "Show MMD Debug Plot"
• Start with Cauchy kernel, 2.0 bandwidth
• Run on chart with 500+ bars of history
Actions:
• Watch yellow MMD line vs red threshold line
• Count threshold crossings per 100 bars
• Adjust bandwidth to achieve desired signal frequency:
- Too many crossings (>20): Increase bandwidth (2.5-3.5)
- Too few crossings (<5): Decrease bandwidth (1.2-1.8)
• Try other kernels to see sensitivity differences
• Note: RBF most sensitive, Cauchy most robust
Target: 8-12 threshold crossings per 100 bars for day trading
Phase 2: WFO Validation (Weeks 2-3)
Goal: Verify strategies generalize out-of-sample
Requirements:
• Enable WFO with default settings (500/100)
• Let system run through 2-3 complete WFO cycles
• Accumulate 50+ total trades
Actions:
• Monitor WFO Efficiency in dashboard
• Check which arms validate (green ✓) vs unproven (yellow ?)
• Review Train Q vs Test Q for selected arm
• If efficiency < 0.5: System overfitting, adjust parameters
Red Flags:
• Efficiency consistently <0.4: Serious overfitting
• Zero arms validate after 2 cycles: Windows too short or thresholds too strict
• Selected arm never validates: Investigate arm logic relevance
Phase 3: Signal Quality Tuning (Week 4)
Goal: Optimize confluence and quality thresholds
Requirements:
• Switch dashboard to FULL mode
• Enable all diagnostic displays
• Track signals for 100+ bars
Actions:
• Watch Bull/Bear quality scores in real-time
• Note quality distribution of fired signals (are they all 60-70% or higher?)
• If signal ranking on, check percentile cutoff appropriateness
• Adjust "Minimum Signal Strength" to filter weak setups
• Adjust "Minimum Confluence" if too many/few signals
Optimization:
• If win rate >60%: Lower thresholds (capture more opportunities)
• If win rate <45%: Raise thresholds (improve quality)
• If Profit Factor <1.2: Increase minimum quality by 5-10 points
Phase 4: Regime Awareness (Week 5)
Goal: Understand which regimes work best
Setup:
• Track performance by regime using notes/journal
• Dashboard shows current regime constantly
Actions:
• Note signal quality and outcomes in each regime:
- STABLE: Often weak signals, low confidence
- TRENDING: Trend-following arms dominate
- SHIFTING: Highest signal quality, core opportunity
- ELEVATED: Good signals, moderate success
- EXTREME: Mixed results, high variance
• Adjust Regime Filter based on findings
• If losing in EXTREME consistently: Use "Smart" or "Strict" filter
Phase 5: Micro Live Testing (Weeks 6-8)
Goal: Validate forward performance with minimal capital
Requirements:
• Paper trading shows: WR >45%, PF >1.2, Efficiency >0.6
• Understand why signals fire and why they're blocked
• Comfortable with dashboard interpretation
Setup:
• 10-25% intended position size
• Focus on ML-boosted signals (if any pattern emerges)
• Keep detailed journal with screenshots
Actions:
• Execute every signal the system generates (within reason)
• Compare your P&L to shadow portfolio metrics
• Track divergence between your results and system expectations
• Review weekly: What worked? What failed? Any execution issues?
Red Flags:
• Your WR >20% below paper: Execution problems (slippage, timing)
• Your WR >20% above paper: Lucky streak or parameter mismatch
• Dashboard metrics drift significantly: Market regime changed
Phase 6: Full Scale Deployment (Month 3+)
Goal: Progressively increase to full position sizing
Requirements:
• 30+ micro live trades completed
• Live WR within 15% of paper WR
• Profit Factor >1.0 live
• Max DD <15% live
• Confidence in parameter stability
Progression:
• Months 3-4: 25-50% intended size
• Months 5-6: 50-75% intended size
• Month 7+: 75-100% intended size
Maintenance:
• Weekly dashboard review for metric drift
• Monthly WFO efficiency check (should stay >0.5)
• Quarterly parameter re-optimization if market character shifts
• Annual deep review of arm performance and kernel relevance
Stop/Reduce Rules:
• WR drops >20% from baseline: Reduce to 50%, investigate
• Consecutive losses >12: Reduce to 25%, review parameters
• Drawdown >20%: Stop trading, reassess system fit
• WFO efficiency <0.3 for 2+ periods: System broken, retune completely
💡 DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS & KEY BREAKTHROUGHS
The Kernel Discovery:
Early versions used simple moving average crossovers and momentum indicators—they captured obvious moves but missed subtle regime changes. The breakthrough came from reading academic papers on two-sample testing and kernel methods. Applying Maximum Mean Discrepancy to financial returns revealed distribution shifts 10-20 bars before traditional indicators signaled. This edge—knowing the market had fundamentally changed before it was obvious—became the core of KMD.
Testing showed Cauchy kernel outperformed others by 15% win rate in crypto specifically because its heavy tails ignored the massive outlier spikes (liquidation cascades, bot manipulation) that fooled RBF into false signals.
The Seven Arms Revelation:
Originally, the system had one strategy: "Trade when MMD crosses threshold." Performance was inconsistent—great in ranging markets, terrible in trends. The insight: different market structures require different strategies. Creating seven distinct arms based on different market theories (trend-following, mean-reversion, breakout, volume, momentum) and letting them compete solved the problem.
The multi-armed bandit wasn't added as a gimmick—it was the solution to "which strategy should I use right now?" The system discovers the answer automatically through reinforcement learning.
The Thompson Sampling Superiority:
UCB1 worked fine, but Thompson Sampling empirically outperformed it by 8% over 1000+ trades in backtesting. The reason: Thompson's probabilistic selection naturally hedges uncertainty. When two arms have similar Q-values, UCB1 picks one deterministically (whichever has slightly higher exploration bonus). Thompson samples from both distributions, sometimes picking the "worse" one—and often discovering it's actually better in current conditions.
Implementing true Beta distribution sampling (Box-Muller + Marsaglia-Tsang) instead of fake approximations was critical. Fake Thompson (using random with bias) underperformed UCB1. Real Thompson with proper Bayesian updating dominated.
The Walk-Forward Necessity:
Initial backtests showed 65% win rate across 5000 trades. Live trading: 38% win rate over first 100 trades. Crushing disappointment. The problem: overfitting. The training data included the test data (look-ahead bias). Implementing proper walk-forward optimization with out-of-sample validation dropped backtest win rate to 51%—but live performance matched at 49%. That's a system you can trust.
WFO efficiency metric became the North Star. If efficiency >0.7, live results track paper. If efficiency <0.5, prepare for disappointment.
The Confluence Complexity:
First signals were simple: "MMD high + arm agrees." This generated 200+ signals on 1000 bars with 42% win rate—not tradeable. Adding confluence (must have trend + volume + structure + RSI) reduced signals to 40 with 58% win rate. The math clicked: fewer, better signals outperform many mediocre signals .
The weighted system (20pt critical factors, 15pt high-impact, 10pt moderate/bonus) emerged from analyzing which factors best predicted wins. Bandit arm alignment and MMD quality were 2-3× more predictive than RSI or divergence, so they got 2× the weight. This isn't arbitrary—it's data-driven.
The Dynamic Threshold Insight:
Fixed MMD threshold failed across different market conditions. 0.15 worked perfectly on ES but fired constantly on Bitcoin. The adaptive threshold (scaling with recent MMD mean + stdev) auto-calibrated to instrument volatility. This single change made the system deployable across forex, crypto, stocks without manual tuning per instrument.
The Signal Mode Evolution:
Originally, every qualified bar showed a triangle. Charts became unusable—dozens of stacked triangles during trending regimes. "Transition Only" mode cleaned this up but missed re-entries when quality spiked mid-regime. "Responsive" mode emerged as the optimal balance: show fresh qualifications, reversals, AND significant quality improvements (25%+) during extreme regimes. This captures the signal intent ("something important just happened") without chart pollution.
🚨 LIMITATIONS & CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
What This System IS NOT:
• NOT Predictive : KMD doesn't forecast prices. It identifies when the current distribution differs from historical baseline, suggesting regime transition—but not direction or magnitude.
• NOT Holy Grail : Typical performance is 48-56% win rate with 1.3-1.8 avg R-multiple. This is a probabilistic edge, not certainty. Expect losing streaks of 8-12 trades.
• NOT Universal : Performs best on liquid, auction-driven markets (futures, major forex, large-cap stocks, BTC/ETH). Struggles with illiquid instruments, thin order books, heavily manipulated markets.
• NOT Hands-Off : Requires monitoring for news events, earnings, central bank announcements. MMD cannot detect "Fed meeting in 2 hours" or "CEO stepping down"—it only sees statistical patterns.
• NOT Immune to Regime Persistence : WFO helps but cannot predict black swans or fundamental market structure changes (pandemic, war, regulatory overhaul). During these events, all historical patterns may break.
Core Assumptions:
1. Return Distributions Exhibit Clustering : Markets alternate between relatively stable distributional regimes. Violation: Permanent random walk, no regime structure.
2. Distribution Changes Precede Price Moves : Statistical divergence appears before obvious technical signals. Violation: Instantaneous regime flips (gaps, news), no statistical warning.
3. Volume Reflects Real Activity : Volume-based confluence assumes genuine participation. Violation: Wash trading, spoofing, exchange manipulation (common in crypto).
4. Past Arm Performance Predicts Future Arm Performance : The bandit learns from history. Violation: Fundamental strategy regime change (e.g., market transitions from mean-reverting to trending permanently).
5. ATR-Based Stops Are Rational : Volatility-normalized risk management avoids premature exits. Violation: Flash crashes, liquidity gaps, stop hunts precisely targeting ATR multiples.
6. Kernel Similarity Maps to Economic Similarity : Mathematical similarity (via kernel) correlates with economic similarity (regime). Violation: Distributions match by chance while fundamentals differ completely.
Performs Best On:
• ES, NQ, RTY (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 futures)
• Major forex pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
• Liquid commodities: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), SI (silver)
• Large-cap stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA (>$10M avg daily volume)
• Major crypto on reputable exchanges: BTC, ETH (Coinbase, Kraken)
Performs Poorly On:
• Low-volume stocks (<$1M daily volume)
• Exotic forex pairs with erratic spreads
• Illiquid crypto altcoins (manipulation, unreliable volume)
• Pre-market/after-hours (thin liquidity, gaps)
• Instruments with frequent corporate actions (splits, dividends)
• Markets with persistent one-sided intervention (central bank pegs)
Known Weaknesses:
• Lag During Instantaneous Shifts : MMD requires (test_window) bars to detect regime change. Fast-moving events (5-10 bar crashes) may bypass detection entirely.
• False Positives in Choppy Consolidation : Low-volatility range-bound markets can trigger false MMD spikes from random noise crossing threshold. Regime filter helps but doesn't eliminate.
• Parameter Sensitivity : Small bandwidth changes (2.0→2.5) can alter signal frequency by 30-50%. Requires careful calibration per instrument.
• Bandit Convergence Time : MAB needs 50-100 trades per arm to reliably learn Q-values. Early trades (first 200 bars) are essentially random exploration.
• WFO Warmup Drag : First WFO cycle has no validation data, so all arms start unvalidated. System may trade rarely or conservatively for first 500-600 bars until sufficient test data accumulates.
• Visual Overload : With all display options enabled (cloud, vectors, zones, connections), chart can become cluttered. Disable selectively for cleaner view.
⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading futures, forex, stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leveraged instruments can result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results.
The Kernel Market Dynamics system, including its multi-armed bandit and walk-forward optimization components, is provided for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument.
The adaptive learning algorithms optimize based on historical data—there is no guarantee that learned strategies will remain profitable or that kernel-detected regime changes will lead to profitable trades. Market conditions change, correlations break, and distributional regimes shift in ways that historical data cannot predict. Black swan events occur.
Walk-forward optimization reduces but does not eliminate overfitting risk. WFO efficiency metrics indicate likelihood of forward performance but cannot guarantee it. A system showing high efficiency on one dataset may show low efficiency on another timeframe or instrument.
The dashboard shadow portfolio simulates trades under idealized conditions: instant fills, no slippage, no commissions, perfect execution. Real trading involves slippage (often 1-3 ticks per trade), commissions, latency, partial fills, rejected orders, requotes, and liquidity constraints that significantly reduce performance below simulated results.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy is a statistical distance metric—high MMD indicates distribution divergence but does not indicate direction, magnitude, duration, or profitability of subsequent moves. MMD can spike during sideways chop, producing signals with no directional follow-through.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, broker execution, and market conditions before risking capital. Conduct extensive paper trading (minimum 100 trades) and start with micro position sizing (10-25% intended size) for at least 50 trades before scaling up.
Never risk more capital than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (1-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every trade. Maintain adequate margin/capital reserves. Understand that most retail traders lose money. Algorithmic systems do not change this fundamental reality—they systematize decision-making but do not eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any particular purpose. Users assume all responsibility for their trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read and understood these risk disclosures and accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
📁 SUGGESTED TRADINGVIEW CATEGORIES
PRIMARY CATEGORY: Statistics
The Kernel Market Dynamics system is fundamentally a statistical learning framework . At its core lies Maximum Mean Discrepancy—an advanced two-sample statistical test from the academic machine learning literature. The indicator compares probability distributions using kernel methods (RBF, Laplacian, Cauchy, Rational Quadratic) that map data to high-dimensional feature spaces for nonlinear similarity measurement.
The multi-armed bandit framework implements reinforcement learning via Q-learning with exponential moving average updates. Thompson Sampling uses true Bayesian inference with Beta posterior distributions. Walk-forward optimization performs rigorous out-of-sample statistical validation with train/test splits and efficiency metrics that detect overfitting.
The confluence system aggregates multiple statistical indicators (RSI, ADX, OBV, Z-scores, EMAs) with weighted scoring that produces a 0-100 quality metric. Signal ranking uses percentile-based filtering on historical quality distributions. The dashboard displays comprehensive statistics: win rates, profit factors, Sharpe ratios, expectancy, drawdowns—all computed from trade return distributions.
This is advanced statistical analysis applied to trading: distribution comparison, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, Bayesian inference, hypothesis testing, and performance analytics. The statistical sophistication distinguishes KMD from simple technical indicators.
SECONDARY CATEGORY: Volume
Volume analysis plays a crucial role in KMD's signal generation and validation. The confluence system includes volume confirmation as a high-impact factor (15 points): signals require above-average volume (>1.2× mean) for full points, with scaling based on volume ratio. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) trend indicator determines directional bias for Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation strategy).
Volume ratio (current / 20-period average) directly affects confluence scores—higher volume strengthens signal quality. The momentum flow vectors scale width and opacity based on volume momentum relative to average. Energy particle visualization specifically marks volume burst events (>2× average volume) as potential market-moving catalysts.
Several bandit arms explicitly incorporate volume:
• Arm 2 (Breakout): Requires volume confirmation for Bollinger Band breaks
• Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation): Primary logic based on OBV trend + volume spike
The system recognizes volume as the "conviction" behind price moves—distribution changes matter more when accompanied by significant volume, indicating genuine participant behavior rather than noise. This volume-aware filtering improves signal reliability in liquid markets.
TERTIARY CATEGORY: Volatility
Volatility measurement and adaptation permeate the KMD system. ATR (Average True Range) forms the basis for all risk management: stops are placed at ATR × multiplier, targets are scaled accordingly. The adaptive bandwidth feature scales kernel bandwidth (0.5-2.0×) inversely with volatility—tightening during calm markets, widening during volatile periods.
The probability cloud (primary visual element) directly visualizes volatility: bands expand/contract based on (1 + MMD × 3) multiplier applied to ATR. Higher MMD (distribution divergence) + higher ATR = dramatically wider uncertainty bands.
Adaptive cooldown scales minimum bars between signals based on ATR percentage: higher volatility = longer cooldown (up to 3× base), preventing overtrading during whipsaw conditions. The gamma parameter in the tensor calculation (from related indicators) and volatility ratio measurements influence MMD sensitivity.
Regime classification incorporates volatility metrics: high volatility with ranging price action produces "RANGE⚡" regime, while volatility expansion with directional movement produces trending regimes. The system adapts its behavior to volatility regimes—tighter requirements during extreme volatility, looser requirements during stable periods.
ATR-based risk management ensures position sizing and exit levels automatically adapt to instrument volatility, making the system deployable across instruments with different average volatilities (stocks vs crypto) without manual recalibration.
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CLOSING STATEMENT
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Kernel Market Dynamics doesn't just measure price—it measures the probability structure underlying price. It doesn't just pick one strategy—it learns which strategies work in which conditions. It doesn't just optimize on history—it validates on the future.
This is machine learning applied correctly to trading: not curve-fitting oscillators to maximize backtest profit, but implementing genuine statistical learning algorithms (kernel methods, multi-armed bandits, Bayesian inference) that adapt to market evolution while protecting against overfitting through rigorous walk-forward testing.
The seven arms compete. The Thompson sampler selects. The kernel measures. The confluence scores. The walk-forward validates. The signals fire.
Most indicators tell you what happened. KMD tells you when the game changed.
"In the space between distributions, where the kernel measures divergence and the bandit learns from consequence—there, edge exists." — KMD-WFO-MAB v2
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Strat Reversal MTF TableStrat Reversal MTF Table — Your Complete Multi-Timeframe Strat Command Center
Take your Strat trading to the next level with an indicator that shows every reversal, on every timeframe, in one powerful visual dashboard.
Designed for traders who demand speed, clarity, and full Strat alignment, the Strat Reversal MTF Table instantly identifies all major bullish and bearish reversal patterns:
Bullish Patterns
2-1-2
3-1-2
1-3-2
3-2-2
Bearish Patterns
2-1-2
3-1-2
1-3-2
3-2-2
Each signal is displayed with:
Clear pattern name (e.g., “2-1-2 Bull”)
Automatic trigger price
Timeframe label
Color-coded background (Bullish / Bearish / Neutral)
Whether you trade options, equities, futures, or crypto, this indicator makes it effortless to see what’s flipping — and where the strongest setups are emerging.
🔥 Key Features
📊 Multi-Timeframe Scanning (1 min → Daily)
Monitor 7 customizable timeframes at once.
From scalping to swing trading, you always know which timeframe is turning.
⚡ Real-Time OR Close-Confirmed Logic
Choose your style:
Realtime (Wick Mode) → Fast entries
Close-Confirmed → Stronger validation
Ideal for traders who want precision on any timeframe.
🎨 Clean & Customizable Dashboard
Move the table anywhere on the chart
Adjust text size
Choose your own colors
Lightweight and non-intrusive
A perfect blend of simplicity and power.
📩 Instant Alerts, Built In
Get notified instantly when:
Any timeframe reverses
A specific timeframe flips
Multiple reversals fire across the stack
The indicator works great with TradingView’s push notifications, email, and webhooks.
🎯 What This Helps You Do
✔ Catch Strat reversals as they happen
✔ Quickly spot full-timeframe alignment
✔ Improve your entries for options plays
✔ Avoid chop by reading higher-timeframe intent
✔ Trade more confidently with automated trigger levels
This indicator is built for Strat traders who want to trade smarter, faster, and cleaner.
✨ Perfect For
Strat Traders
Options Traders
Futures Scalpers
Intraday & Swing Traders
Quant/Algo-inspired traders
Anyone following Rob Smith’s methodology
BTC Future CME Cross-Market DetectorProject Spec: BTC CME Cross-Market Detector
1. Project Overview
Indicator Name
CME Cross-Market Detector
Objective
To identify high-probability trade setups by detecting and confirming "smart money" activity across two distinct market venues simultaneously: a primary crypto exchange (e.g., Bybit, Binance) and the institutional CME futures market.
Core Philosophy
Price movements are often preceded by the positioning of large, institutional players ("smart money"). While their activity can be seen on any single exchange, the signal becomes exceptionally reliable when the same footprint appears at the same time in both the broader crypto derivatives market and the highly regulated institutional futures market. This dual-market confirmation acts as a powerful noise filter, isolating signals that have a higher probability of follow-through.
2. Key Concepts & Signal Logic
The indicator's entire foundation rests on confirming that specific conditions are met on two datasets at the same time: (1) The user's current chart (e.g., BYBIT:BTCUSDT) and (2) The CME Bitcoin Futures chart (CME:BTC1!).
Smart Volume Analysis
To gauge buying vs. selling pressure, the total volume of a single candle is algorithmically split. This is not a perfect science but an effective estimation based on the candle's structure.
Buying Pressure is considered proportional to the distance the price closed from the low. Buying Pressure ≈ Total Volume × ((Close - Low) / (High - Low))
Selling Pressure is considered proportional to the distance the price closed from the high. Selling Pressure ≈ Total Volume × ((High - Close) / (High - Low))
Signal Trigger Conditions
For a potential signal to be identified on each market independently, two conditions must be met:
Volume Spike: The volume of the current candle must be significantly higher than the recent average volume (e.g., >150% of the 20-period moving average). This shows a sudden, high level of interest.
Pressure Imbalance: The estimated buying pressure must overwhelm the selling pressure by a certain factor (e.g., 3x), or vice versa for a sell signal. This indicates a clear directional intent.
The Final Confirmed Signal
A signal is only considered valid and plotted on the chart when the Signal Trigger Conditions (both Volume Spike and Pressure Imbalance) are met on both the primary chart and the CME chart on the very same candle.
3. Signal Strength Calculation
The percentage shown on the chart is a Signal Strength Score (0-100%), which rates the quality and conviction of the confirmed signal.
The score is calculated as follows:
Base Score Calculation (0-100 points): A base score is calculated for each market (primary and CME) by combining two factors:
Volume Component (0-50 pts): Measures the intensity of the volume spike. A 300% volume spike will score higher than a 150% spike.
Imbalance Component (0-50 pts): Measures the intensity of the buy/sell pressure ratio. A 5x imbalance will score higher than a 3x imbalance.
Advanced Modifiers (Bonus Points): The base score is then enhanced with bonus points for favorable conditions:
Trend Alignment (+10 pts): A buy signal that occurs during a clear uptrend receives extra points.
Candle Structure (+10 pts): A buy signal on a candle with a long lower wick (indicating rejection of lower prices) receives extra points.
Final Averaged Score: The final percentage you see is the average of the two individual strength scores calculated for the primary exchange and the CME market.
4. Visualization
Energy Waves: Signals are displayed as circles. Green for Buy Signals (below the candle) and Red for Sell Signals (above the candle).
Dynamic Sizing: The size of the circle directly reflects the Signal Strength Score, categorized into four distinct levels (e.g., 10%+, 40%+, 60%+, and 80%+) for at-a-glance interpretation.
Percentage Labels: Each signal is plotted with its precise, final strength score for clear analysis.
5. Summary: Steps to Replicate the Logic
To recreate this indicator, follow these high-level steps for each candle on the chart:
Gather Data: Fetch the Open, High, Low, Close, and Volume data for the primary chart asset AND for the corresponding CME Bitcoin Futures symbol (CME:BTC1!).
Calculate Buy/Sell Pressure: For both datasets, use the "Smart Volume Analysis" formula to estimate the buying and selling pressure for the current candle.
Check for Volume Spikes: For both datasets, calculate a simple moving average of the volume. Check if the current candle's volume exceeds this average by a set threshold (e.g., 150%).
Check for Pressure Imbalance: For both datasets, check if the buying pressure is greater than the selling pressure by a set multiplier (e.g., 3.0), or vice versa.
Confirm the Signal: A final signal is only valid if the conditions from both Step 3 and Step 4 are true for both datasets on the same candle.
Calculate Strength: If a signal is confirmed, compute a strength score (0-100) for each dataset based on the intensity of the volume spike and pressure imbalance. Add bonus points for confluence factors like trend alignment.
Finalize and Plot: Average the two strength scores from each market. Plot a colored, sized circle on the chart that visually represents this final averaged score, and display the score as a text label.
Last but not least, the idea of the indicator is inspired by 52SIGNAL
jhehli LiquidityWhat are BSL and SSL?
In the context of Smart Money Concepts, liquidity simply refers to pending orders—specifically Stop Losses and Buy/Sell Stop orders—resting above old highs and below old lows.
BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): This is found above Swing Highs. Retail traders who are short the market will place their "Buy Stop" protective orders here. Additionally, breakout traders place "Buy Limit" orders here. Smart Money views this area as a pool of willing buyers. To fill large sell orders, institutions must drive price up into this liquidity to pair their massive sell interest with these buy stops.
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): This is found below Swing Lows. Retail traders who are long the market place their "Sell Stop" protective orders here. Smart Money targets these levels to accumulate long positions. They need the market to sell off into these levels so they can buy from the willing sellers at a discount.
How this Indicator Works
This tool automates the process of market structure analysis by identifying key Swing Highs and Swing Lows.
Detection: It scans price action to find fractal highs and lows (classic swing points) where price has rejected a level.
Visualization: It projects a line from these points, clearly marking where the "stops" are likely residing.
Liquidity Raids: When price pierces these levels, it is considered a "Liquidity Raid" or "Stop Hunt."
How to Use This in Your Trading
Do not treat these lines simply as Support and Resistance. In the ICT methodology, old highs and lows are targets, not barriers.
For Reversals: Wait for a "Turtle Soup" or "Judas Swing." This occurs when price aggressively expands into a BSL or SSL level to trigger stops, only to quickly reverse back into the trading range. This indicates that Smart Money has finished their accumulation or distribution.
For Bias: If the higher timeframe trend is Bullish, expect SSL to be raided to fuel the move, while BSL becomes the target (Draw on Liquidity).
By using this indicator, you remove the guesswork of manually marking every swing point, allowing you to focus on price action and the reaction at these critical liquidity pools.
RSI Driven ATR Trend [NeuraAlgo]
RSI Driven ATR Trend
Dynamic Trend Detection and Strength Analysis
Unlock the market’s hidden rhythm with the RSI Driven ATR Trend , a sophisticated tool designed to measure trend direction and strength using a combination of RSI momentum and ATR-based volatility . This indicator provides real-time insights into bullish and bearish phases, helping traders identify potential turning points and optimize entry and exit decisions.
1.Core In Logic:
Dynamically calculates trend levels based on RSI and ATR interactions.
Highlights trend direction with intuitive color coding: green for bullish, red for bearish.
Displays trend strength as a percentage to quantify momentum intensity.
Automatic visual cues for potential trend reversals with “Turn Up” and “Turn Down” labels.
Advanced smoothing and dynamic gating ensure responsive yet stable trend detection.
Compatible with all timeframes and instruments.
2.Inputs Explained:
Rsi Factor: Adjusts the sensitivity of the RSI in trend calculation. Higher values make the trend detection more responsive to momentum changes.
Multiplier: Multiplies the effect of Rsi Factor to fine-tune trend responsiveness.
Bar Back: Number of bars used for peak and dip calculations, determining how far back the indicator looks for trend changes.
Period: Lookback period used in trend gating and ATR calculations.
Source: Price source for calculations (default is close).
Main Colors: Customize bullish and bearish trend colors.
3.How it Works:
The indicator calculates RSI values and ATR-based dynamic ranges to determine upper and lower trend levels.
Trend direction is determined by price crossing above (bullish) or below (bearish) the dynamic trend line.
Trend strength is expressed as a percentage relative to the trend line, helping you assess momentum intensity.
Visual cues like "Turn Up" and "Turn Down" labels indicate potential trend reversals.
Bars are colored dynamically based on trend direction for quick interpretation.
Ideal for traders seeking a clear, actionable view of market trends without the clutter of multiple indicators. RSI Driven ATR Trend translates complex price behavior into an easy-to-read visual guide, helping you make smarter trading decisions.
Happy Trading!
smartAitrade Complete FocusTrendPajinko-SmartAiTrade Complete is an all-in-one price-action technical system designed for high-precision entries, intelligent trade management, and fully automated exit logic.
The system combines RSI swings, advanced divergence detection, ATR-based PJK Bands, smart retest logic, swing-break POI zones, trend filters (ADX), and automated breakeven/TP management into a single integrated indicator.
It is built to support traders who want structured, rule-based entries with minimal discretion, while still maintaining the flexibility of price-action behavior.
🔍 Core Components
1. RSI System
Standard RSI for overbought/oversold levels.
RSI Swing High/Low detection (using pivots).
Used for:
momentum confirmation
swing structure alignment
divergence detection filters
2. Advanced Divergence Engine
The indicator features a high-accuracy divergence module that detects:
• Bullish Divergence
Price makes a lower low
RSI makes a higher low
Pivot distances must fall within a valid bar-range
Optional filter: RSI must be in oversold zone
• Bearish Divergence
Price makes a higher high
RSI makes a lower high
Optional filter: RSI must be in overbought zone
You can choose to draw divergence lines on either:
RSI only
Price chart
Both
This system is optimized for low repaint and filters weak divergence signals.
3. ATR-Based PJK Bands System
A volatility-adaptive band system similar to Keltner/Bollinger hybrids:
Middle line uses SMA/EMA/VWMA
Upper/lower bands = middle ± ATR × multiplier
Bands detect:
momentum breakouts
band touch signals
high-probability reversal zones
Buy signal:
Price touches lower band and shifts upward
Sell signal:
Price touches upper band and shifts downward
4. Smart Retest System
After a momentum breakout or band touch signal:
A “smart retest zone” is created
The system waits for price to come back to the zone
If retest occurs within a user-defined timeout window, the signal is validated
Used to avoid chasing entries and reduce false breakouts
5. Swing Break & POI Zones
The indicator automatically detects price-swing structure:
Swing High Break → Sell POI box created
Swing Low Break → Buy POI box created
POI zones:
Represent potential liquidity pockets
Drawn with customizable height and width
Work as target areas or confirmation zones
6. ADX Trend Filter
ADX trend strength filter ensures signals are valid only when:
Trend strength > threshold (default 20)
Avoids signals in flat, low-volatility markets
7. Auto Trade Management (Breakeven System)
Fully automated exit logic:
TP1 distance set in pips
Once TP1 is reached → move Stop Loss to breakeven + offset
Additional option:
Close all open positions automatically when trend bias changes
Everything works even with multiple open trades.
8. Dashboard & Visual Interface
The indicator includes a clean dashboard showing:
Trend condition
RSI status
Advanced divergence status
Band and swing conditions
Active signals
Breakeven status
Total signals statistics
All visual components can be enabled/disabled individually.
🎯 Trading Philosophy
The system is built on three core principles:
1. Confirm Trend
ADX + ATR Bands define direction and strength.
2. Identify High-Probability Reversal or Continuation Zones
Smart Retest + Swing Structure + POI + Divergence.
3. Automate the Exit
Breakeven, TP1, and automatic closing keep emotions out of the decision.
Lorentzian Harmonic Flow - Adaptive ML⚡ LORENTZIAN HARMONIC FLOW — ADAPTIVE ML COMPLETE SYSTEM
THEORETICAL FOUNDATION: TEMPORAL RELATIVITY MEETS MACHINE LEARNING
The Lorentzian Harmonic Flow Adaptive ML system represents a paradigm shift in technical analysis by addressing a fundamental limitation that plagues traditional indicators: they assume time flows uniformly across all market conditions. In reality, markets experience time compression during volatile breakouts and time dilation during consolidation. A 50-period moving average calculated during a quiet overnight session captures vastly different market information than the same calculation during a high-volume news event.
This indicator solves this problem through Lorentzian spacetime modeling , borrowed directly from Einstein's special relativity. By calculating a dynamic gamma factor (γ) that measures market velocity relative to a volatility-based "speed of light," every calculation adapts its effective lookback period to the market's intrinsic clock. Combined with a dual-memory architecture, multi-regime detection, and Bayesian strategy selection, this creates a system that genuinely learns which approaches work in which market conditions.
CRITICAL DISTINCTION: TRUE ADAPTIVE LEARNING VS STATIC CLASSIFICATION
Before diving into the system architecture, it's essential to understand how this indicator fundamentally differs from traditional "Lorentzian" implementations, particularly the well-known Lorentzian Classification indicator.
THE ORIGINAL LORENTZIAN CLASSIFICATION APPROACH:
The pioneering Lorentzian Classification indicator (Jdehorty, 2022) introduced the financial community to Lorentzian distance metrics for pattern matching. However, it used offline training methodology :
• External Training: Required Python scripts or external ML tools to train the model on historical data
• Static Model: Once trained, the model parameters remained fixed
• No Real-Time Learning: The indicator classified patterns but didn't learn from outcomes
• Look-Ahead Bias Risk: Offline training could inadvertently use future data
• Manual Retraining: To adapt to new market conditions, users had to retrain externally and reload parameters
This was groundbreaking for bringing ML concepts to Pine Script, but it wasn't truly adaptive. The model was a snapshot—trained once, deployed, static.
THIS SYSTEM: TRUE ONLINE LEARNING
The Lorentzian Harmonic Flow Adaptive ML system represents a complete architectural departure :
✅ FULLY SELF-CONTAINED:
• Zero External Dependencies: No Python scripts, no external training tools, no data exports
• 100% Pine Script: Entire learning pipeline executes within TradingView
• One-Click Deployment: Load indicator, it begins learning immediately
• No Manual Configuration: System builds its own training data in real-time
✅ GENUINE FORWARD-WALK LEARNING:
• Real-Time Adaptation: Every trade outcome updates the model
• Forward-Only Logic: System uses only past confirmed data—zero look-ahead bias
• Continuous Evolution: Parameters adapt bar-by-bar based on rolling performance
• Regime-Specific Memory: Learns which patterns work in which conditions independently
✅ GETS BETTER WITH TIME:
• Week 1: Bootstrap mode—gathering initial data across regimes
• Month 2-3: Statistical significance emerges, parameter adaptation begins
• Month 4+: Mature learning, regime-specific optimization, confident selection
• Year 2+: Deep pattern library, proven parameter sets, robust to regime shifts
✅ NO RETRAINING REQUIRED:
• Automatic Adaptation: When market structure changes, system detects via performance degradation
• Memory Refresh: Old patterns naturally decay, new patterns replace them
• Parameter Evolution: Thresholds and multipliers adjust to current conditions
• Regime Awareness: If new regime emerges, enters bootstrap mode automatically
THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE:
Traditional Lorentzian Classification:
"Here are patterns from the past. Current state matches pattern X, which historically preceded move Y. Signal fired."
→ Static knowledge, fixed rules, periodic retraining required
LHF Adaptive ML:
"In Trending Bull regime, Strategy B has 58% win rate and 1.4 Sharpe over last 30 trades. In High Vol Range, Strategy C performs better with 61% win rate and 1.8 Sharpe. Current state is Trending Bull, so I select Strategy B. If Strategy B starts failing, I'll adapt parameters or switch strategies. I'm learning which patterns matter in which contexts, and I improve every trade."
→ Dynamic learning, contextual adaptation, self-improving system
WHY THIS MATTERS:
Markets are non-stationary. A model trained on 2023 data may fail in 2024 when Fed policy shifts, volatility regime changes, or market structure evolves. Static models require constant human intervention—retraining, re-optimization, parameter updates.
This system learns continuously . It doesn't need you to tell it when markets changed. It discovers regime shifts through performance feedback, adapts parameters accordingly, and rebuilds its pattern library organically. The system running in Month 12 is fundamentally smarter than the system in Month 1—not because you retrained it, but because it learned from 1,000+ real outcomes.
This is the difference between pattern recognition (static ML) and reinforcement learning (adaptive ML). One classifies, the other learns and improves.
PART 1: LORENTZIAN TEMPORAL DYNAMICS
Markets don't experience time uniformly. During explosive volatility, price can compress weeks of movement into minutes. During consolidation, time dilates. Traditional indicators ignore this, using fixed periods regardless of market state.
The Lorentzian approach models market time using the Lorentz factor from special relativity:
γ = 1 / √(1 - v²/c²)
Where:
• v (velocity): Trend momentum normalized by ATR, calculated as (close - close ) / (N × ATR)
• c (speed limit): Realized volatility + volatility bursts, multiplied by c_multiplier parameter
• γ (gamma): Time dilation factor that compresses or expands effective lookback periods
When trend velocity approaches the volatility "speed limit," gamma spikes above 1.0, compressing time. Every calculation length becomes: base_period / γ. This creates shorter, more responsive periods during explosive moves and longer, more stable periods during quiet consolidation.
The system raises gamma to an optional power (gamma_power parameter) for fine control over compression strength, then applies this temporal scaling to every calculation in the indicator. This isn't metaphor—it's quantitative adaptation to the market's intrinsic clock.
PART 2: LORENTZIAN KERNEL SMOOTHING
Traditional moving averages use uniform weights (SMA) or exponential decay (EMA). The Lorentzian kernel uses heavy-tailed weighting:
K(distance, γ) = 1 / (1 + (distance/γ)²)
This Cauchy-like distribution gives more influence to recent extremes than Gaussian assumptions suggest, capturing the fat-tailed nature of financial returns. For any calculation requiring smoothing, the system loops through historical bars, computes Lorentzian kernel weights based on temporal distance and current gamma, then produces weighted averages.
This creates adaptive smoothing that responds to local volatility structure rather than imposing rigid assumptions about price distribution.
PART 3: HARMONIC FLOW (Multi-Timeframe Momentum)
The core directional signal comes from Harmonic Flow (HFL) , which blends three gamma-compressed Lorentzian smooths:
• Short Horizon: base_period × short_ratio / γ (default: 34 × 0.5 / γ ≈ 17 bars, faster with high γ)
• Mid Horizon: base_period × mid_ratio / γ (default: 34 × 1.0 / γ ≈ 34 bars, anchor timeframe)
• Long Horizon: base_period × long_ratio / γ (default: 34 × 2.5 / γ ≈ 85 bars, structural trend)
Each produces a Lorentzian-weighted smooth, converted to a z-score (distance from smooth normalized by ATR). These z-scores are then weighted-averaged:
HFL = (w_short × z_short + w_mid × z_mid + w_long × z_long) / (w_short + w_mid + w_long)
Default weights (0.45, 0.35, 0.20) favor recent momentum while respecting longer structure. Scalpers can increase short weight; swing traders can emphasize long weight. The result is a directional momentum indicator that captures multi-timeframe flow in compressed time.
From HFL, the system derives:
• Flow Velocity: HFL - HFL (momentum acceleration)
• Flow Acceleration: Second derivative (turning points)
• Temporal Compression Index (TCI): base_period / compressed_length (shows how much time is compressed)
PART 4: DUAL MEMORY ARCHITECTURE
Markets have memory—current conditions resonate with past regimes. But memory operates on two timescales, inspiring this indicator's dual-memory design:
SHORT-TERM MEMORY (STM):
• Capacity: 100 patterns (configurable 50-200)
• Decay Rate: 0.980 (50% weight after ~35 bars)
• Update Frequency: Every 10 bars
• Purpose: Capture current regime's tactical patterns
• Storage: Recent market states with 10-bar forward outcomes
• Analogy: Hippocampus (rapid encoding, fast fade)
LONG-TERM MEMORY (LTM):
• Capacity: 512 patterns (configurable 256-1024)
• Decay Rate: 0.997 (50% weight after ~230 bars)
• Quality Gate: Only high-quality patterns admitted (adaptive threshold per regime)
• Purpose: Strategic pattern library validated across regimes
• Storage: Validated patterns from weeks/months of history
• Analogy: Neocortex (slow consolidation, persistent storage)
Each memory stores 6-dimensional feature vectors:
1. HFL (harmonic flow strength)
2. Flow Velocity (momentum)
3. Flow Acceleration (turning points)
4. Volatility (realized vol EMA)
5. Entropy (market uncertainty)
6. Gamma (time compression state)
Plus the actual outcome (10-bar forward return).
K-NEAREST NEIGHBORS (KNN) PATTERN MATCHING:
When evaluating current market state, the system queries both memories using Lorentzian distance :
distance = Σ (1 - K(|feature_current - feature_memory|, γ))
This calculates similarity across all 6 dimensions using the same Lorentzian kernel, weighted by current gamma. The system finds K nearest neighbors (default: 8), weights each by:
• Similarity: Lorentzian kernel distance
• Age: Exponential decay based on bars since pattern
• Regime: Only patterns from similar regimes count
The weighted average of these neighbors' outcomes becomes the prediction. High-confidence predictions require both high similarity and agreement between multiple neighbors.
REGIME-AWARE BLENDING:
STM and LTM predictions are blended adaptively:
• High Vol Range regime: Trust STM 70% (recent matters in chaos)
• Trending regimes: Trust LTM 70% (structure matters in trends)
• Normal regimes: 50/50 blend
Agreement metric: When STM and LTM strongly disagree, the system flags low confidence—often indicating regime transition or novel market conditions requiring caution.
PART 5: FIVE-REGIME MARKET CLASSIFICATION
Traditional regime detection stops at "trending vs ranging." This system detects five distinct market states using linear regression slope and volatility analysis:
REGIME 0: TRENDING BULL ↗
• Detection: LR slope > trend_threshold (default: 0.3)
• Characteristics: Sustained positive HFL, elevated gamma, low entropy
• Best Strategy: B (Flow Momentum)
• Trading Behavior: Follow momentum, trail stops, pyramid winners
REGIME 1: TRENDING BEAR ↘
• Detection: LR slope < -trend_threshold
• Characteristics: Sustained negative HFL, elevated gamma, low entropy
• Best Strategy: B (Flow Momentum)
• Trading Behavior: Follow momentum short, aggressive exits on reversal
REGIME 2: HIGH VOL RANGE ↔
• Detection: |slope| < threshold AND vol_ratio > vol_expansion_threshold (default: 1.5)
• Characteristics: Oscillating HFL, high gamma spikes, high entropy
• Best Strategies: A (Squeeze Breakout) or C (Memory Pattern)
• Trading Behavior: Fade extremes, tight stops, quick profits
REGIME 3: LOW VOL RANGE —
• Detection: |slope| < threshold AND vol_ratio < vol_expansion_threshold
• Characteristics: Low HFL magnitude, gamma ≈ 1, squeeze conditions
• Best Strategy: A (Squeeze Breakout)
• Trading Behavior: Wait for breakout, wide stops on breakout entry
REGIME 4: TRANSITION ⚡
• Detection: Trend reversal OR volatility spike > 1.5× threshold
• Characteristics: Erratic gamma, high entropy, conflicting signals
• Best Strategy: None (often unfavorable)
• Trading Behavior: Stand aside, wait for clarity
Each regime gets a confidence score (0-1) measuring how clearly defined it is. Low confidence indicates messy, ambiguous conditions.
PART 6: THREE INDEPENDENT TRADING STRATEGIES
Rather than one signal logic, the system implements three distinct approaches:
STRATEGY A: SQUEEZE BREAKOUT
• Logic: Bollinger Bands squeeze release + HFL direction + flow velocity confirmation
• Calculation: Compares BB width to Keltner Channel width; fires when BB expands beyond KC
• Strength Score: 70 + compression_strength × 0.3 (tighter squeeze = higher score)
• Best Regimes: Low Vol Range (3), Transition exit (4→0 or 4→1)
• Pattern: Volatility contraction → directional expansion
• Philosophy: Calm before the storm; compression precedes explosion
STRATEGY B: LORENTZIAN FLOW MOMENTUM
• Logic: Strong HFL (×flow_mult) + positive velocity + gamma > 1.1 + NOT squeezing
• Calculation: |HFL × flow_mult| > 0.12, velocity confirms direction, gamma shows acceleration
• Strength Score: |HFL × flow_mult| × 80 + gamma × 10
• Best Regimes: Trending Bull (0), Trending Bear (1)
• Pattern: Established momentum → acceleration in compressed time
• Philosophy: Trend is friend when spacetime curves
STRATEGY C: MEMORY PATTERN MATCHING
• Logic: Dual KNN prediction > threshold + high confidence + agreement + HFL confirms
• Calculation: |memory_pred| > 0.005, memory_conf > 1.0, agreement > 0.5, HFL direction matches
• Strength Score: |prediction| × 800 × agreement
• Best Regimes: High Vol Range (2), sometimes others with sufficient pattern library
• Pattern: Historical similarity → outcome resonance
• Philosophy: Markets rhyme; learn from validated patterns
Each strategy generates independent strength scores. In multi-strategy mode (enabled by default), the system selects one strategy per regime based on risk-adjusted performance. In weighted mode (multi-strategy disabled), all three fire simultaneously with configurable weights.
PART 7: ADAPTIVE LEARNING & BAYESIAN SELECTION
This is where machine learning meets trading. The system maintains 15 independent performance matrices :
3 strategies × 5 regimes = 15 tracking systems
For each combination, it tracks:
• Trade Count: Number of completed trades
• Win Count: Profitable outcomes
• Total Return: Sum of percentage returns
• Squared Returns: For variance/Sharpe calculation
• Equity Curve: Virtual P&L assuming 10% risk per trade
• Peak Equity: All-time high for drawdown calculation
• Max Drawdown: Peak-to-trough decline
RISK-ADJUSTED SCORING:
For current regime, the system scores each strategy:
Sharpe Ratio: (mean_return / std_dev) × √252
Calmar Ratio: total_return / max_drawdown
Win Rate: wins / trades
Combined Score = 0.6 × Sharpe + 0.3 × Calmar + 0.1 × Win_Rate
The strategy with highest score is selected. This is similar to Thompson Sampling (multi-armed bandits) but uses deterministic selection rather than probabilistic sampling due to Pine Script limitations.
BOOTSTRAP MODE (Critical for Understanding):
For the first min_regime_samples trades (default: 10) in each regime:
• Status: "🔥 BOOTSTRAP (X/10)" displayed in dashboard
• Behavior: All signals allowed (gathering data)
• Regime Filter: Disabled (can't judge with insufficient data)
• Purpose: Avoid cold-start problem, build statistical foundation
After reaching threshold:
• Status: "✅ FAVORABLE" (score > 0.5) or "⚠️ UNFAVORABLE" (score ≤ 0.5)
• Behavior: Only trade favorable regimes (if enable_regime_filter = true)
• Learning: Parameters adapt based on outcomes
This solves a critical problem: you can't know which strategy works in a regime without data, but you can't get data without trading. Bootstrap mode gathers initial data safely, then switches to selective mode once statistical confidence emerges.
PARAMETER ADAPTATION (Per Regime):
Three parameters adapt independently for each regime based on outcomes:
1. SIGNAL QUALITY THRESHOLD (30-90):
• Starts: base_quality_threshold (default: 60)
• Adaptation:
Win Rate < 45% → RAISE threshold by learning_rate × 10 (be pickier)
Win Rate > 55% → LOWER threshold by learning_rate × 5 (take more)
• Effect: System becomes more selective in losing regimes, more aggressive in winning regimes
2. LTM QUALITY GATE (0.2-0.8):
• Starts: 0.4 (if adaptive gate enabled)
• Adaptation:
Sharpe < 0.5 → RAISE gate by learning_rate (demand better patterns)
Sharpe > 1.5 → LOWER gate by learning_rate × 0.5 (accept more patterns)
• Effect: LTM fills with high-quality patterns from winning regimes
3. FLOW MULTIPLIER (0.5-2.0):
• Starts: 1.0
• Adaptation:
Strong win (+2%+) → MULTIPLY by (1 + learning_rate × 0.1)
Strong loss (-2%+) → MULTIPLY by (1 - learning_rate × 0.1)
• Effect: Amplifies signal strength in profitable regimes, dampens in unprofitable
Each regime evolves independently. Trending Bull might develop threshold=55, gate=0.35, mult=1.3 while High Vol Range develops threshold=70, gate=0.50, mult=0.9.
PART 8: SHADOW PORTFOLIO VALIDATION
To validate learning objectively, the system runs three virtual portfolios :
Shadow Portfolio A: Trades only Strategy A signals
Shadow Portfolio B: Trades only Strategy B signals
Shadow Portfolio C: Trades only Strategy C signals
When any signal fires:
1. Open virtual position for corresponding strategy
2. On exit, calculate P&L (10% risk per trade)
3. Update equity, win count, profit factor
Dashboard displays:
• Equity: Current virtual balance (starts $10,000)
• Win%: Overall win rate across all regimes
• PF: Profit Factor (gross_profit / gross_loss)
This transparency shows which strategies actually perform, validates the selection logic, and prevents overfitting. If Shadow C shows $12,500 equity while A and B show $9,800, it confirms Strategy C's edge.
PART 9: HISTORICAL PRE-TRAINING
The system includes historical pre-training to avoid cold-start:
On Chart Load (if enabled):
1. Scan past pretrain_bars (default: 200)
2. Calculate historical HFL, gamma, velocity, acceleration, volatility, entropy
3. Compute 10-bar forward returns as outcomes
4. Populate STM with recent patterns
5. Populate LTM with high-quality patterns (quality > 0.4)
Effect:
• Without pre-training: Memories empty, no predictions for weeks, pure bootstrap
• With pre-training: System starts with pattern library, predictions from day one
Pre-training uses only past data (no future peeking) and fills memories with validated outcomes. This dramatically accelerates learning without compromising integrity.
PART 10: COMPREHENSIVE INPUT SYSTEM
The indicator provides 50+ inputs organized into logical groups. Here are the key parameters and their market-specific guidance:
🧠 ADAPTIVE LEARNING SYSTEM:
Enable Adaptive Learning (true/false):
• Function: Master switch for regime-specific strategy selection and parameter adaptation
• Enabled: System learns which strategies work in which regimes (recommended)
• Disabled: All strategies fire simultaneously with fixed weights (simpler, less adaptive)
• Recommendation: Keep enabled for all markets; system needs 2-3 months to mature
Learning Rate (0.01-0.20):
• Function: Speed of parameter adaptation based on outcomes
• Stocks/ETFs: 0.03-0.05 (slower, more stable)
• Crypto: 0.05-0.08 (faster, adapts to volatility)
• Forex: 0.04-0.06 (moderate)
• Timeframes:
1-5min scalping: 0.08-0.10 (rapid adaptation)
15min-1H day trading: 0.05-0.07 (balanced)
4H-Daily swing: 0.03-0.05 (conservative)
• Tradeoff: Higher = responsive but may overfit; Lower = stable but slower to adapt
Min Samples Per Regime (5-30):
• Function: Trades required before exiting bootstrap mode
• Active trading (>5 signals/day): 8-10 trades
• Moderate (1-5 signals/day): 10-15 trades
• Swing (few signals/week): 5-8 trades
• Logic: Bootstrap mode until this threshold; then uses Sharpe/Calmar for regime filtering
• Tradeoff: Lower = faster exit (risky, less data); Higher = more validation (safer, slower)
🌍 REGIME DETECTION:
Regime Lookback Period (20-200):
• Function: Bars used for linear regression to classify regime
• By Timeframe:
1-5min: 30-50 bars (~2-4 hour context)
15min: 40-60 bars (daily context)
1H: 50-100 bars (weekly context)
4H: 100-150 bars (monthly context)
Daily: 50-75 bars (quarterly context)
• By Market:
Crypto: 40-60 (faster regime changes)
Forex: 50-75 (moderate stability)
Stocks: 60-100 (slower structural trends)
• Tradeoff: Shorter = more regime switches (reactive); Longer = fewer switches (stable)
Trend Strength Threshold (0.1-0.8):
• Function: Minimum normalized LR slope to classify as trending vs ranging
• Lower (0.1-0.2): More markets classified as trending
• Higher (0.4-0.6): Only strong trends qualify
• Recommendations:
Choppy markets (BTC, small caps): 0.25-0.35
Smooth trends (major FX pairs): 0.30-0.40
Strong trends (indices during bull): 0.20-0.30
• Effect: Controls sensitivity of trending vs ranging classification
Vol Expansion Factor (1.2-3.0):
• Function: Volatility ratio to classify high-vol regimes (current_vol / avg_vol)
• By Asset:
Bitcoin: 1.4-1.6 (frequent vol spikes)
Altcoins: 1.3-1.5 (very volatile)
Major FX (EUR/USD): 1.6-2.0 (stable baseline)
Stocks (SPY): 1.5-1.8 (moderate)
Penny stocks: 1.3-1.4 (always volatile)
• Impact: Higher = fewer "High Vol Range" classifications; Lower = more sensitive to volatility spikes
🎯 SIGNAL GENERATION:
Base Quality Threshold (30-90):
• Function: Starting signal strength requirement (adapts per regime)
• THIS IS YOUR MAIN SIGNAL FREQUENCY CONTROL
• Conservative (70-80): Fewer, higher-quality signals
• Balanced (55-65): Moderate signal flow
• Aggressive (40-50): More signals, more noise
• By Trading Style:
Scalping (1-5min): 50-60
Day trading (15min-1H): 60-70
Swing (4H-Daily): 65-75
• Adaptive Behavior: System raises this in losing regimes (pickier), lowers in winning regimes (take more)
Min Confidence (0.1-0.9):
• Function: Minimum confidence score to fire signal
• Calculation: (Signal_Strength / 100) × Regime_Confidence
• Recommendations:
High-frequency (scalping): 0.2-0.3 (permissive)
Day trading: 0.3-0.4 (balanced)
Swing/position: 0.4-0.6 (selective)
• Interaction: During Transition regime (low regime confidence), even strong signals may fail confidence check; creates natural regime filtering
Only Trade Favorable Regimes (true/false):
• Function: Block signals in unfavorable regimes (where all strategies have negative risk-adjusted scores)
• Enabled (Recommended): Only trades when best strategy has positive Sharpe in current regime; auto-disables during bootstrap; protects capital
• Disabled: Always allows signals regardless of historical performance; use for manual regime assessment
• Bootstrap: Auto-allows trading until min_regime_samples reached, then switches to performance-based filtering
Min Bars Between Signals (1-20):
• Function: Prevents signal spam by enforcing minimum spacing
• By Timeframe:
1min: 3-5 bars (3-5 minutes)
5min: 3-6 bars (15-30 minutes)
15min: 4-8 bars (1-2 hours)
1H: 5-10 bars (5-10 hours)
4H: 3-6 bars (12-24 hours)
Daily: 2-5 bars (2-5 days)
• Logic: After signal fires, no new signals for X bars
• Tradeoff: Lower = more reactive (may overtrade); Higher = more patient (may miss reversals)
🌀 LORENTZIAN CORE:
Base Period (10-100):
• Function: Core time period for flow calculation (gets compressed by gamma)
• THIS IS YOUR PRIMARY TIMEFRAME KNOB
• By Timeframe:
1-5min scalping: 20-30 (fast response)
15min-1H day: 30-40 (balanced)
4H swing: 40-55 (smooth)
Daily position: 50-75 (very smooth)
• By Market Character:
Choppy (crypto, small caps): 25-35 (faster)
Smooth (major FX, indices): 35-50 (moderate)
Slow (bonds, utilities): 45-65 (slower)
• Gamma Effect: Actual length = base_period / gamma; High gamma compresses to ~20 bars, low gamma expands to ~50 bars
• Default 34 (Fibonacci) works well across most assets
Velocity Period (5-50):
• Function: Window for trend velocity calculation: (price_now - price ) / (N × ATR)
• By Timeframe:
1-5min scalping: 8-12 (fast momentum)
15min-1H day: 12-18 (balanced)
4H swing: 14-21 (smooth trend)
Daily: 18-30 (structural trend)
• By Market:
Crypto (fast moves): 10-14
Stocks (moderate): 14-20
Forex (smooth): 18-25
• Impact: Feeds into gamma calculation (v/c ratio); shorter = more sensitive to velocity spikes → higher gamma
• Relationship: Typically vel_period ≈ base_period / 2 to 2/3
Speed-of-Market (c) (0.5-3.0):
• Function: "Speed limit" for gamma calculation: c = realized_vol + vol_burst × c_multiplier
• By Asset Volatility:
High vol (BTC, TSLA): 1.0-1.3 (lower c = more compression)
Medium vol (SPY, EUR/USD): 1.3-1.6 (balanced)
Low vol (bonds, utilities): 1.6-2.5 (higher c = less compression)
• What It Does:
Lower c → velocity hits "speed limit" sooner → higher gamma → more compression
Higher c → velocity rarely hits limit → gamma stays near 1 → less adaptation
• Effect on Signals: More compression (low c) = faster regime detection, more responsive; Less compression (high c) = smoother, less adaptive
• Tuning: Start at 1.4; if gamma always ~1.0, lower to 1.0-1.2; if gamma spikes >5 often, raise to 1.6-2.0
Gamma Power (0.5-2.0):
• Function: Exponent applied to gamma: final_gamma = gamma^power
• Compression Strength:
0.5-0.8: Softens compression (gamma 4 → 2)
1.0: Linear (gamma 4 → 4)
1.2-2.0: Amplifies compression (gamma 4 → 16)
• Use Cases:
Reduce power (<1.0) if adaptive lengths swing too wildly or getting whipsawed
Increase power (>1.0) for more aggressive regime adaptation in fast markets
• Most users should leave at 1.0; only adjust if gamma behavior needs tuning
Max Kernel Lookback (20-200):
• Function: Computational limit for Lorentzian smoothing (performance control)
• Recommendations:
Fast PC / simple chart: 80-100
Slow PC / complex chart: 40-60
Mobile / lots of indicators: 30-50
• Impact: Each kernel smoothing loops through this many bars; higher = more accurate but slower
• Default 60 balances accuracy and speed; lower to 40-50 if indicator is slow
🎼 HARMONIC FLOW:
Short Horizon (0.2-1.0):
• Function: Fast timeframe multiplier: short_length = base_period × short_ratio / gamma
• Default: 0.5 (captures 2× faster flow than base)
• By Style:
Scalping: 0.3-0.4 (very fast)
Day trading: 0.4-0.6 (moderate)
Swing: 0.5-0.7 (balanced)
• Effect: Lower = more weight on micro-moves; Higher = smooths out fast fluctuations
Mid Horizon (0.5-2.0):
• Function: Medium timeframe multiplier: mid_length = base_period × mid_ratio / gamma
• Default: 1.0 (equals base_period, anchor timeframe)
• Usually keep at 1.0 unless specific strategy needs fine-tuning
Long Horizon (1.0-5.0):
• Function: Slow timeframe multiplier: long_length = base_period × long_ratio / gamma
• Default: 2.5 (captures trend/structure)
• By Style:
Scalping: 1.5-2.0 (less long-term influence)
Day trading: 2.0-3.0 (balanced)
Swing: 2.5-4.0 (strong trend component)
• Effect: Higher = more emphasis on larger structure; Lower = more reactive to recent price action
Short Weight (0-1):
Mid Weight (0-1):
Long Weight (0-1):
• Function: Relative importance in HFL calculation (should sum to 1.0)
• Defaults: Short: 0.45, Mid: 0.35, Long: 0.20 (day trading balanced)
• Preset Configurations:
SCALPING (fast response):
Short: 0.60, Mid: 0.30, Long: 0.10
DAY TRADING (balanced):
Short: 0.45, Mid: 0.35, Long: 0.20
SWING (trend-following):
Short: 0.25, Mid: 0.35, Long: 0.40
• Effect: More short weight = responsive but noisier; More long weight = smoother but laggier
🧠 DUAL MEMORY SYSTEM:
Enable Pattern Memory (true/false):
• Function: Master switch for KNN pattern matching via dual memory
• Enabled (Recommended): Strategy C (Memory Pattern) can fire; memory predictions influence all strategies; prediction arcs shown; heatmaps available
• Disabled: Only Strategy A and B available; faster performance (less computation); pure technical analysis (no pattern matching)
• Keep enabled for full system capabilities; disable only if CPU-constrained or testing pure flow signals
STM Size (50-200):
• Function: Short-Term Memory capacity (recent pattern storage)
• Characteristics: Fast decay (0.980), captures current regime, updates every 10 bars, tactical pattern matching
• Sizing:
Active markets (crypto): 80-120
Moderate (stocks): 100-150
Slow (bonds): 50-100
• By Timeframe:
1-15min: 60-100 (captures few hours of patterns)
1H: 80-120 (captures days)
4H-Daily: 100-150 (captures weeks/months)
• Tradeoff: More = better recent pattern coverage; Less = faster computation
• Default 100 is solid for most use cases
LTM Size (256-1024):
• Function: Long-Term Memory capacity (validated pattern storage)
• Characteristics: Slow decay (0.997), only high-quality patterns (gated), regime-specific recall, strategic pattern library
• Sizing:
Fast PC: 512-768
Medium PC: 384-512
Slow PC/Mobile: 256-384
• By Data Needs:
High-frequency (lots of patterns): 512-1024
Moderate activity: 384-512
Low-frequency (swing): 256-384
• Performance Impact: Each KNN search loops through entire LTM; 512 = good balance of coverage and speed; if slow, drop to 256-384
• Fills over weeks/months with validated patterns
STM Decay (0.95-0.995):
• Function: Short-Term Memory age decay rate: age_weight = decay^bars_since_pattern
• Decay Rates:
0.950: Aggressive fade (50% weight after 14 bars)
0.970: Moderate fade (50% after 23 bars)
0.980: Balanced (50% after 35 bars)
0.990: Slow fade (50% after 69 bars)
• By Timeframe:
1-5min: 0.95-0.97 (fast markets, old patterns irrelevant)
15min-1H: 0.97-0.98 (balanced)
4H-Daily: 0.98-0.99 (slower decay)
• Philosophy: STM should emphasize RECENT patterns; lower decay = only very recent matters; 0.980 works well for most cases
LTM Decay (0.99-0.999):
• Function: Long-Term Memory age decay rate
• Decay Rates:
0.990: 50% weight after 69 bars
0.995: 50% weight after 138 bars
0.997: 50% weight after 231 bars
0.999: 50% weight after 693 bars
• Philosophy: LTM should retain value for LONG periods; pattern from 6 months ago might still matter
• Usage:
Fast-changing markets: 0.990-0.995
Stable markets: 0.995-0.998
Structural patterns: 0.998-0.999
• Warning: Be careful with very high decay (>0.998); market structure changes, old patterns may mislead
• 0.997 balances long-term memory with regime evolution
K Neighbors (3-21):
• Function: Number of similar patterns to query in KNN search
• By Sample Size:
Small dataset (<100 patterns): 3-5
Medium dataset (100-300): 5-8
Large dataset (300-1000): 8-13
Very large (>1000): 13-21
• Tradeoff:
Fewer K (3-5): More reactive to closest matches; noisier; outlier-sensitive; better when patterns very distinct
More K (13-21): Smoother, more stable predictions; may dilute strong signals; better when patterns overlap
• Rule of Thumb: K ≈ √(memory_size) / 3; For STM=100, LTM=512: K ≈ 8-10 ideal
Adaptive Quality Gate (true/false):
• Function: Adapts LTM entry threshold per regime based on Sharpe ratio
• Enabled: Quality gate adapts: Low Sharpe → RAISE gate (demand better patterns); High Sharpe → LOWER gate (accept more patterns); each regime has independent gate
• Disabled: Fixed quality gate (0.4 default) for all regimes
• Recommended: Keep ENABLED; helps LTM focus on proven pattern types per regime; prevents weak patterns from polluting memory
🎯 MULTI-STRATEGY SYSTEM:
Enable Strategy Learning (true/false):
• Function: Core learning feature for regime-specific strategy selection
• Enabled: Tracks 3 strategies × 5 regimes = 15 performance matrices; selects best strategy per regime via Sharpe/Calmar/WinRate; adaptive strategy switching
• Disabled: All strategies fire simultaneously (weighted combination); no regime-specific selection; simpler but less adaptive
• Recommended: ENABLED (this is the core of the adaptive system); disable only for testing or simplification
Strategy A Weight (0-1):
• Function: Weight for Strategy A (Squeeze Breakout) when multi-strategy disabled
• Characteristics: Fires on Bollinger squeeze release; best in Low Vol Range, Transition; compression → expansion pattern
• When Multi-Strategy OFF: Default 0.33 (equal weight); increase to 0.4-0.5 for choppy ranges with breakouts; decrease to 0.2-0.3 for trending markets
• When Multi-Strategy ON: This is ignored (system auto-selects based on performance)
Strategy B Weight (0-1):
• Function: Weight for Strategy B (Lorentzian Flow) when multi-strategy disabled
• Characteristics: Fires on strong HFL + velocity + gamma; best in Trending Bull/Bear; momentum → acceleration pattern
• When Multi-Strategy OFF: Default 0.33; increase to 0.4-0.5 for trending markets; decrease to 0.2-0.3 for choppy/ranging markets
• When Multi-Strategy ON: Ignored (auto-selected)
Strategy C Weight (0-1):
• Function: Weight for Strategy C (Memory Pattern) when multi-strategy disabled
• Characteristics: Fires when dual KNN predicts strong move; best in High Vol Range; requires memory system enabled + sufficient data
• When Multi-Strategy OFF: Default 0.34; increase to 0.4-0.6 if strong pattern repetition and LTM has >200 patterns; decrease to 0.2-0.3 if new to system; set to 0.0 if memory disabled
• When Multi-Strategy ON: Ignored (auto-selected)
📚 PRE-TRAINING:
Historical Pre-Training (true/false):
• Function: Bootstrap feature that fills memory on chart load
• Enabled: Scans past bars to populate STM/LTM before live trading; calculates historical outcomes (10-bar forward returns); builds initial pattern library; system starts with context, not blank slate
• Disabled: Memories only populate in real-time; takes weeks to build pattern library
• Recommended: ENABLED (critical for avoiding "cold start" problem); disable only for testing clean learning
Training Bars (50-500):
• Function: How many historical bars to scan on load (limited by available history)
• Recommendations:
1-5min charts: 200-300 (few hours of history)
15min-1H: 200-400 (days/weeks)
4H: 300-500 (months)
Daily: 200-400 (years)
• Performance:
100 bars: ~1 second
300 bars: ~2-3 seconds
500 bars: ~4-5 seconds
• Sweet Spot: 200-300 (enough patterns without slow load)
• If chart loads slowly: Reduce to 100-150
🎨 VISUALIZATION:
Show Regime Background (true/false):
• Function: Color-code background by current regime
• Colors: Trending Bull (green tint), Trending Bear (red tint), High Vol Range (orange tint), Low Vol Range (blue tint), Transition (purple tint)
• Helps visually track regime changes
Show Flow Bands (true/false):
• Function: Plot upper/lower bands based on HFL strength
• Shows dynamic support/resistance zones; green fill = bullish flow; red fill = bearish flow
• Useful for visual trend confirmation
Show Confidence Meter (true/false):
• Function: Plot signal confidence (0-100) in separate pane
• Calculation: (Signal_Strength / 100) × Regime_Confidence
• Gold line = current confidence; dashed line = minimum threshold
• Signals fire when confidence exceeds threshold
Show Prediction Arc (true/false):
• Function: Dashed line projecting expected price move based on memory prediction
• NOT a price target - a probability vector; steep arc = strong expected move; flat arc = weak/uncertain prediction
• Green = bullish prediction; red = bearish prediction
Show Signals (true/false):
• Function: Triangle markers at entry points
• ▲ Green = Long signal; ▼ Red = Short signal
• Markers show on bar close (non-repainting)
🏆 DASHBOARD:
Show Dashboard (true/false):
• Function: Main info panel showing all system metrics
• Sections: Lorentzian Core, Regime, Dual Memory, Adaptive Parameters, Regime Performance, Shadow Portfolios, Current Signal Status
• Essential for understanding system state
Dashboard Position: Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right
Individual Section Toggles:
• System Stats: Lorentzian Core section (Gamma, v/c, HFL, TCI)
• Memory Stats: Dual Memory section (STM/LTM predictions, agreement)
• Shadow Portfolios: Shadow Portfolio table (equity, win%, PF)
• Adaptive Params: Adaptive Parameters section (threshold, quality gate, flow mult)
🔥 HEATMAPS:
Show Dual Heatmaps (true/false):
• Function: Visual pattern density maps for STM and LTM
• Layout: X-axis = pattern age (left=recent, right=old); Y-axis = outcome direction (top=bearish, bottom=bullish); Color intensity = pattern count; Color hue = bullish (green) vs bearish (red)
• Warning: Can clutter chart; disable if not using
Heatmap Position: Screen position for heatmaps (STM at selected position, LTM offset)
Resolution (5-15):
• Function: Grid resolution (bins)
• Higher = more detailed but smaller cells; Lower = clearer but less granular
• 10 is good balance; reduce to 6-8 if hard to read
PART 11: DASHBOARD METRICS EXPLAINED
The comprehensive dashboard provides real-time transparency into every aspect of the adaptive system:
⚡ LORENTZIAN CORE SECTION:
Gamma (γ):
• Range: 1.0 to ~10.0 (capped)
• Interpretation:
γ ≈ 1.0-1.2: Normal market time, low velocity
γ = 1.5-2.5: Moderate compression, trending
γ = 3.0-5.0: High compression, explosive moves
γ > 5.0: Extreme compression, parabolic volatility
• Usage: High gamma = system operating in compressed time; expect shorter effective periods and faster adaptation
v/c (Velocity / Speed Limit):
• Range: 0.0 to 0.999 (approaches but never reaches 1.0)
• Interpretation:
v/c < 0.3: Slow market, low momentum
v/c = 0.4-0.7: Moderate trending
v/c > 0.7: Approaching "speed limit," high velocity
v/c > 0.9: Parabolic move, system at limit
• Color Coding: Red (>0.7), Gold (0.4-0.7), Green (<0.4)
• Usage: High v/c warns of extreme conditions where trend may exhaust
HFL (Harmonic Flow):
• Range: Typically -3.0 to +3.0 (can exceed in extremes)
• Interpretation:
HFL > 0: Bullish flow
HFL < 0: Bearish flow
|HFL| > 0.5: Strong directional bias
|HFL| < 0.2: Weak, indecisive
• Color: Green (positive), Red (negative)
• Usage: Primary directional indicator; strategies often require HFL confirmation
TCI (Temporal Compression Index):
• Calculation: base_period / compressed_length
• Interpretation:
TCI ≈ 1.0: No compression, normal time
TCI = 1.5-2.5: Moderate compression
TCI > 3.0: Significant compression
• Usage: Shows how much time is being compressed; mirrors gamma but more intuitive
╔═══ REGIME SECTION ═══╗
Current:
• Display: Regime name with icon (Trending Bull ↗, Trending Bear ↘, High Vol Range ↔, Low Vol Range —, Transition ⚡)
• Color: Gold for visibility
• Usage: Know which regime you're in; check regime performance to see expected strategy behavior
Confidence:
• Range: 0-100%
• Interpretation:
>70%: Very clear regime definition
40-70%: Moderate clarity
<40%: Ambiguous, mixed conditions
• Color: Green (>70%), Gold (40-70%), Red (<40%)
• Usage: High confidence = trust regime classification; low confidence = regime may be transitioning
Mode:
• States:
🔥 BOOTSTRAP (X/10): Still gathering data for this regime
✅ FAVORABLE: Best strategy has positive risk-adjusted score (>0.5)
⚠️ UNFAVORABLE: All strategies have negative scores (≤0.5)
• Color: Orange (bootstrap), Green (favorable), Red (unfavorable)
• Critical Importance: This tells you whether the system will trade or stand aside (if regime filter enabled)
╔═══ DUAL MEMORY KNN SECTION ═══╗
STM (Size):
• Display: Number of patterns currently in STM (0 to stm_size)
• Interpretation: Should fill to capacity within hours/days; if not filling, check that memory is enabled
STM Pred:
• Range: Typically -0.05 to +0.05 (representing -5% to +5% expected 10-bar move)
• Color: Green (positive), Red (negative)
• Usage: STM's prediction based on recent patterns; emphasis on current regime
LTM (Size):
• Display: Number of patterns in LTM (0 to ltm_size)
• Interpretation: Fills slowly (weeks/months); only validated high-quality patterns; check quality gate if not filling
LTM Pred:
• Range: Similar to STM pred
• Color: Green (positive), Red (negative)
• Usage: LTM's prediction based on long-term validated patterns; more strategic than tactical
Agreement:
• Display:
✅ XX%: Strong agreement (>70%) - both memories aligned
⚠️ XX%: Moderate agreement (40-70%) - some disagreement
❌ XX%: Conflict (<40%) - memories strongly disagree
• Color: Green (>70%), Gold (40-70%), Red (<40%)
• Critical Usage: Low agreement often precedes regime change or signals novel conditions; Strategy C won't fire with low agreement
╔═══ ADAPTIVE PARAMS SECTION ═══╗
Threshold:
• Display: Current regime's signal quality threshold (30-90)
• Interpretation: Higher = pickier; lower = more permissive
• Watch For: If steadily rising in a regime, system is struggling (low win rate); if falling, system is confident
• Default: Starts at base_quality_threshold (usually 60)
Quality:
• Display: Current regime's LTM quality gate (0.2-0.8)
• Interpretation: Minimum quality score for pattern to enter LTM
• Watch For: If rising, system demanding higher-quality patterns; if falling, accepting more diverse patterns
• Default: Starts at 0.4
Flow Mult:
• Display: Current regime's flow multiplier (0.5-2.0)
• Interpretation: Amplifies or dampens HFL for Strategy B
• Watch For: If >1.2, system found strong edge in flow signals; if <0.8, flow signals underperforming
• Default: Starts at 1.0
Learning:
• Display: ✅ ON or ❌ OFF
• Shows whether adaptive learning is enabled
• Color: Green (on), Red (off)
╔═══ REGIME PERFORMANCE SECTION ═══╗
This table shows ONLY the current regime's statistics:
S (Strategy):
• Display: A, B, or C
• Color: Gold if selected strategy; gray if not
• Shows which strategies have data in this regime
Trades:
• Display: Number of completed trades for this pair
• Interpretation: Blank or low numbers mean bootstrap mode; >10 means statistical significance building
Win%:
• Display: Win rate percentage
• Color: Green (>55%), White (45-55%), Red (<45%)
• Interpretation: 52%+ is good; 58%+ is excellent; <45% means struggling
• Note: Short-term variance is normal; judge after 20+ trades
Sharpe:
• Display: Annualized Sharpe ratio
• Color: Green (>1.0), White (0-1.0), Red (<0)
• Interpretation:
>2.0: Exceptional (rare)
1.0-2.0: Good
0.5-1.0: Acceptable
0-0.5: Marginal
<0: Losing
• Usage: Primary metric for strategy selection (60% weight in score)
╔═══ SHADOW PORTFOLIOS SECTION ═══╗
Shows virtual equity tracking across ALL regimes (not just current):
S (Strategy):
• Display: A, B, or C
• Color: Gold if currently selected strategy; gray otherwise
Equity:
• Display: Current virtual balance (starts $10,000)
• Color: Green (>$10,000), White ($9,500-$10,000), Red (<$9,500)
• Interpretation: Which strategy is actually making virtual money across all conditions
• Note: 10% risk per trade assumed
Win%:
• Display: Overall win rate across all regimes
• Color: Green (>55%), White (45-55%), Red (<45%)
• Interpretation: Aggregate performance; strategy may do well in some regimes and poorly in others
PF (Profit Factor):
• Display: Gross profit / gross loss
• Color: Green (>1.5), White (1.0-1.5), Red (<1.0)
• Interpretation:
>2.0: Excellent
1.5-2.0: Good
1.2-1.5: Acceptable
1.0-1.2: Marginal
<1.0: Losing
• Usage: Confirms win rate; high PF with moderate win rate means winners >> losers
╔═══ STATUS BAR ═══╗
Display States:
• 🟢 LONG: Currently in long position (green background)
• 🔴 SHORT: Currently in short position (red background)
• ⬆️ LONG SIGNAL: Long signal present but not yet confirmed (waiting for bar close)
• ⬇️ SHORT SIGNAL: Short signal present but not yet confirmed
• ⚪ NEUTRAL: No position, no signal (white background)
Usage: Immediate visual confirmation of system state; check before manually entering/exiting
PART 12: VISUAL ELEMENT INTERPRETATION
REGIME BACKGROUND COLORS:
Green Tint: Trending Bull regime - expect Strategy B (Flow) to dominate; focus on long momentum
Red Tint: Trending Bear regime - expect Strategy B (Flow) shorts; focus on short momentum
Orange Tint: High Vol Range - expect Strategy A (Squeeze) or C (Memory); trade breakouts or patterns
Blue Tint: Low Vol Range - expect Strategy A (Squeeze); wait for compression release
Purple Tint: Transition regime - often unfavorable; system may stand aside; high uncertainty
Usage: Quick visual regime identification without reading dashboard
FLOW BANDS:
Upper Band: close + HFL × ATR × 1.5
Lower Band: close - HFL × ATR × 1.5
Green Fill: HFL positive (bullish flow); bands act as dynamic support/resistance in uptrend
Red Fill: HFL negative (bearish flow); bands act as dynamic resistance/support in downtrend
Usage:
• Bullish flow: Price bouncing off lower band = trend continuation; breaking below = possible reversal
• Bearish flow: Price rejecting upper band = trend continuation; breaking above = possible reversal
CONFIDENCE METER (Separate Pane):
Gold Line: Current signal confidence (0-100)
Dashed Line: Minimum confidence threshold
Interpretation:
• Line above threshold: Signal likely to fire if strength sufficient
• Line below threshold: Even if signal logic met, won't fire (insufficient confidence)
• Gradual rise: Signal building strength
• Sharp spike: Sudden conviction (check if sustainable)
Usage: Real-time signal probability; helps anticipate upcoming entries
PREDICTION ARC:
Dashed Line: Projects from current close to expected price 8 bars forward
Green Arc: Bullish memory prediction
Red Arc: Bearish memory prediction
Steep Arc: High conviction (strong expected move)
Flat Arc: Low conviction (weak/uncertain move)
Important: NOT a price target; this is a probability vector based on KNN outcomes; actual price may differ
Usage: Directional bias from pattern matching; confirms or contradicts flow signals
SIGNAL MARKERS:
▲ Green Triangle (below bar):
• Long signal confirmed on bar close
• Entry on next bar open
• Non-repainting (appears after bar closes)
▼ Red Triangle (above bar):
• Short signal confirmed on bar close
• Entry on next bar open
• Non-repainting
Size: Tiny (unobtrusive)
Text: "L" or "S" in marker
Usage: Historical signal record; alerts should fire on these; verify against dashboard status
DUAL HEATMAPS (If Enabled):
STM HEATMAP:
• X-axis: Pattern age (left = recent, right = older, typically 0-50 bars)
• Y-axis: Outcome direction (top = bearish outcomes, bottom = bullish outcomes)
• Color Intensity: Brightness = pattern count in that cell
• Color Hue: Green tint (bullish), Red tint (bearish), Gray (neutral)
Interpretation:
• Dense bottom-left: Many recent bullish patterns (bullish regime)
• Dense top-left: Many recent bearish patterns (bearish regime)
• Scattered: Mixed outcomes, ranging regime
• Empty areas: Few patterns (low data)
LTM HEATMAP:
• Similar layout but X-axis spans wider age range (0-500+ bars)
• Shows long-term pattern distribution
• Denser = more validated patterns
Comparison Usage:
• If STM and LTM heatmaps look similar: Current regime matches historical patterns (high agreement)
• If STM bottom-heavy but LTM top-heavy: Recent bullish activity contradicts historical bearish patterns (low agreement, transition signal)
PART 13: DEVELOPMENT STORY
The creation of the Lorentzian Harmonic Flow Adaptive ML system represents over six months of intensive research, mathematical exploration, and iterative refinement. What began as a theoretical investigation into applying special relativity to market time evolved into a complete adaptive learning framework.
THE CHALLENGE:
The fundamental problem was this: markets don't experience time uniformly, yet every indicator treats a 50-period calculation the same whether markets are exploding or sleeping. Traditional adaptive indicators adjust parameters based on volatility, but this is reactive—by the time you measure high volatility, the explosive move is over. What was needed was a framework that measured the market's intrinsic velocity relative to its own structural limits, then compressed time itself proportionally.
THE LORENTZIAN INSIGHT:
Einstein's special relativity provides exactly this framework through the Lorentz factor. When an object approaches the speed of light, time dilates—but from the object's reference frame, it experiences time compression. By treating price velocity as analogous to relativistic velocity and volatility structure as the "speed limit," we could calculate a gamma factor that compressed lookback periods during explosive moves.
The mathematics were straightforward in theory but devilishly complex in implementation. Pine Script has no native support for dynamically-sized arrays or recursive functions, forcing creative workarounds. The Lorentzian kernel smoothing required nested loops through historical bars, calculating kernel weights on the fly—a computational nightmare. Early versions crashed or produced bizarre artifacts (negative gamma values, infinite loops during volatility spikes).
Optimization took weeks. Limiting kernel lookback to 60 bars while still maintaining smoothing quality. Pre-calculating gamma once per bar and reusing it across all calculations. Caching intermediate results. The final implementation balances mathematical purity with computational reality.
THE MEMORY ARCHITECTURE:
With temporal compression working, the next challenge was pattern memory. Simple moving average systems have no memory—they forget yesterday's patterns immediately. But markets are non-stationary; what worked last month may not work today. The solution: dual-memory architecture inspired by cognitive neuroscience.
Short-Term Memory (STM) would capture tactical patterns—the hippocampus of the system. Fast encoding, fast decay, always current. Long-Term Memory (LTM) would store validated strategic patterns—the neocortex. Slow consolidation, persistent storage, regime-spanning wisdom.
The KNN implementation nearly broke me. Calculating Lorentzian distance across 6 dimensions for 500+ patterns per query, applying age decay, filtering by regime, finding K nearest neighbors without native sorting functions—all while maintaining sub-second execution. The breakthrough came from realizing we could use destructive sorting (marking found neighbors as "infinite distance") rather than maintaining separate data structures.
Pre-training was another beast. To populate memory with historical patterns, the system needed to scan hundreds of past bars, calculate forward outcomes, and insert patterns—all on chart load without timing out. The solution: cap at 200 bars, optimize loops, pre-calculate features. Now it works seamlessly.
THE REGIME DETECTION:
Five-regime classification emerged from empirical observation. Traditional trending/ranging dichotomy missed too much nuance. Markets have at least four distinct states: trending up, trending down, volatile range, quiet range—plus a chaotic transition state. Linear regression slope quantifies trend; volatility ratio quantifies expansion; combining them creates five natural clusters.
But classification is useless without regime-specific learning. That meant tracking 15 separate performance matrices (3 strategies × 5 regimes), computing Sharpe ratios and Calmar ratios for sparse data, implementing Bayesian-like strategy selection. The bootstrap mode logic alone took dozens of iterations—too strict and you never get data, too permissive and you blow up accounts during learning.
THE ADAPTIVE LAYER:
Parameter adaptation was conceptually elegant but practically treacherous. Each regime needed independent thresholds, quality gates, and multipliers that adapted based on outcomes. But naive gradient descent caused oscillations—win a few trades, lower threshold, take worse signals, lose trades, raise threshold, miss good signals. The solution: exponential smoothing via learning rate (α) and separate scoring for selection vs adaptation.
Shadow portfolios provided objective validation. By running virtual accounts for all strategies simultaneously, we could see which would have won even when not selected. This caught numerous bugs where selection logic was sound but execution was flawed, or vice versa.
THE DASHBOARD & VISUALIZATION:
A learning system is useless if users can't understand what it's doing. The dashboard went through five complete redesigns. Early versions were information dumps—too much data, no hierarchy, impossible to scan. The final version uses visual hierarchy (section headers, color coding, strategic whitespace) and progressive disclosure (show current regime first, then performance, then parameters).
The dual heatmaps were a late addition but proved invaluable for pattern visualization. Seeing STM cluster in one corner while LTM distributed broadly immediately signals regime novelty. Traders grasp this visually faster than reading disagreement percentages.
THE TESTING GAUNTLET:
Testing adaptive systems is uniquely challenging. Static backtest results mean nothing—the system should improve over time. Early "tests" showed abysmal performance because bootstrap periods were included. The breakthrough: measure pre-learning baseline vs post-learning performance. A system going from 48% win rate (first 50 trades) to 56% win rate (trades 100-200) is succeeding even if absolute performance seems modest.
Edge cases broke everything repeatedly. What happens when a regime never appears in historical data? When all strategies fail simultaneously? When memory fills with only bearish patterns during a bull run? Each required careful handling—bootstrap modes, forced diversification, quality gates.
THE DOCUMENTATION:
This isn't an indicator you throw on a chart with default settings and trade immediately. It's a learning system that requires understanding. The input tooltips alone contain over 10,000 words of guidance—market-specific recommendations, timeframe-specific settings, tradeoff explanations. Every parameter needed not just a description but a philosophical justification and practical tuning guide.
The code comments span 500+ lines explaining theory, implementation decisions, edge cases. Future maintainers (including myself in six months) need to understand not just what the code does but why certain approaches were chosen over alternatives.
WHAT ALMOST DIDN'T WORK:
The entire project nearly collapsed twice. First, when initial Lorentzian smoothing produced complete noise—hours of debugging revealed a simple indexing error where I was accessing instead of in the kernel loop. One character, entire system broken.
Second, when memory predictions showed zero correlation with outcomes. Turned out the KNN distance metric was dominated by the gamma dimension (values 1-10) drowning out normalized features (values -1 to 1). Solution: apply kernel transformation to all dimensions, not just final distance. Obvious in retrospect, maddening at the time.
THE PHILOSOPHY:
This system embodies a specific philosophy: markets are learnable but non-stationary. No single strategy works forever, but regime-specific patterns persist. Time isn't uniform, memory isn't perfect, prediction isn't possible—but probabilistic edges exist for those willing to track them rigorously.
It rejects the premise that indicators should give universal advice. Instead, it says: "In this regime, based on similar past states, Strategy B has a 58% win rate and 1.4 Sharpe. Strategy A has 45% and 0.2 Sharpe. I recommend B. But we're still in bootstrap for Strategy C, so I'm gathering data. Check back in 5 trades."
That humility—knowing what it knows and what it doesn't—is what makes it robust.
PART 14: PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
PHASE 1: DEPLOYMENT (Week 1-4)
Initial Setup:
1. Load indicator on primary trading chart with default settings
2. Verify historical pre-training enabled (should see ~200 patterns in STM/LTM on first load)
3. Enable all dashboard sections for maximum transparency
4. Set alerts but DO NOT trade real money
Observation Checklist:
• Dashboard Validation:
✓ Lorentzian Core shows reasonable gamma (1-5 range, not stuck at 1.0 or spiking to 10)
✓ HFL oscillates with price action (not flat or random)
✓ Regime classifications make intuitive sense
✓ Confidence scores vary appropriately
• Memory System:
✓ STM fills within first few hours/days of real-time bars
✓ LTM grows gradually (few patterns per day, quality-gated)
✓ Predictions show directional bias (not always 0.0)
✓ Agreement metric fluctuates with regime changes
• Bootstrap Tracking:
✓ Dashboard shows "🔥 BOOTSTRAP (X/10)" for each regime
✓ Trade counts increment on regime-specific signals
✓ Different regimes reach threshold at different rates
Paper Trading:
• Take EVERY signal (ignore unfavorable warnings during bootstrap)
• Log each trade: entry price, regime, selected strategy, outcome
• Calculate your actual P&L assuming proper risk management (1-2% risk per trade)
• Do NOT judge system performance yet—focus on understanding behavior
Troubleshooting:
• No signals for days:
- Check base_quality_threshold (try lowering to 50-55)
- Verify enable_regime_filter not blocking all regimes
- Confirm signal confidence threshold not too high (try 0.25)
• Signals every bar:
- Raise base_quality_threshold to 65-70
- Increase min_bars_between to 8-10
- Check if gamma spiking excessively (raise c_multiplier)
• Memory not filling:
- Confirm enable_memory = true
- Verify historical pre-training completed (check STM size after load)
- May need to wait 10 bars for first real-time update
PHASE 2: VALIDATION (Week 5-12)
Statistical Emergence:
By week 5-8, most regimes should exit bootstrap. Look for:
✓ Regime Performance Clarity:
- At least 2-3 strategies showing positive Sharpe in their favored regimes
- Clear separation (Strategy B strong in Trending, Strategy A strong in Low Vol Range, etc.)
- Win rates stabilizing around 50-60% for winning strategies
✓ Shadow Portfolio Divergence:
- Virtual portfolios showing clear winners ($10K → $11K+) and losers ($10K → $9K-)
- Profit factors >1.3 for top strategy
- System selection aligning with best shadow portfolio
✓ Parameter Adaptation:
- Thresholds varying per regime (not stuck at initial values)
- Quality gates adapting (some regimes higher, some lower)
- Flow multipliers showing regime-specific optimization
Validation Questions:
1. Do patterns make intuitive sense?
- Strategy B (Flow) dominating Trending Bull/Bear? ✓ Expected
- Strategy A (Squeeze) succeeding in Low Vol Range? ✓ Expected
- Strategy C (Memory) working in High Vol Range? ✓ Expected
- Random strategy winning everywhere? ✗ Problem
2. Is unfavorable filtering working?
- Regimes with negative Sharpe showing "⚠️ UNFAVORABLE"? ✓ System protecting capital
- Transition regime often unfavorable? ✓ Expected
- All regimes perpetually unfavorable? ✗ Settings too strict or asset unsuitable
3. Are memories agreeing appropriately?
- High agreement during stable regimes? ✓ Expected
- Low agreement during transitions? ✓ Expected (novel conditions)
- Perpetual conflict? ✗ Check memory sizes or decay rates
Fine-Tuning (If Needed):
Too Many Signals in Losing Regimes:
→ Increase learning_rate to 0.07-0.08 (faster adaptation)
→ Raise base_quality_threshold by 5-10 points
→ Enable regime filter if disabled
Missing Profitable Setups:
→ Lower base_quality_threshold by 5-10 points
→ Reduce min_confidence to 0.25-0.30
→ Check if bootstrap mode blocking trades (let it complete)
Excessive Parameter Swings:
→ Reduce learning_rate to 0.03-0.04
→ Increase min_regime_samples to 15-20 (more data before adaptation)
Memory Disagreement Too Frequent:
→ Increase LTM size to 768-1024 (broader pattern library)
→ Lower adaptive_quality_gate requirement (allow more patterns)
→ Increase K neighbors to 10-12 (smoother predictions)
PHASE 3: LIVE TRADING (Month 4+)
Pre-Launch Checklist:
1. ✓ At least 3 regimes show positive Sharpe (>0.8)
2. ✓ Top shadow portfolio shows >53% win rate and >1.3 profit factor
3. ✓ Parameters have stabilized (not changing more than 10% per month)
4. ✓ You understand every dashboard metric and can explain regime/strategy behavior
5. ✓ You have proper risk management plan independent of this system
Position Sizing:
Conservative (Recommended for Month 4-6):
• Risk per trade: 0.5-1.0% of account
• Max concurrent positions: 1-2
• Total exposure: 10-25% of intended full size
Moderate (Month 7-12):
• Risk per trade: 1.0-1.5% of account
• Max concurrent positions: 2-3
• Total exposure: 25-50% of intended size
Full Scale (Year 2+):
• Risk per trade: 1.5-2.0% of account
• Max concurrent positions: 3-5
• Total exposure: 100% (still following risk limits)
Entry Execution:
On Signal Confirmation:
1. Verify dashboard shows signal type (▲ LONG or ▼ SHORT)
2. Check regime mode (avoid if "⚠️ UNFAVORABLE" unless testing)
3. Note selected strategy (A/B/C) and its regime Sharpe
4. Verify memory agreement if Strategy C selected (want >60%)
Entry Method:
• Market entry: Next bar open after signal (for exact backtest replication)
• Limit entry: Slight improvement (2-3 ticks) if confident in direction
Stop Loss Placement:
• Strategy A (Squeeze): Beyond opposite band or recent swing point
• Strategy B (Flow): 1.5-2.0 ATR from entry against direction
• Strategy C (Memory): Based on predicted move magnitude (tighter if pred > 2%)
Exit Management:
System Exit Signals:
• Opposite signal fires: Immediate exit, potential reversal entry
• 20 bars no exit signal: System implies position stale, consider exiting
• Regime changes to unfavorable: Tighten stop, consider partial exit
Manual Exit Conditions:
• Stop loss hit: Take loss, log for validation (system expects some losses)
• Profit target hit: If using fixed targets (2-3R typical)
• Major news event: Flatten during high-impact news (system can't predict these)
Warning Signs (Exit Criteria):
🚨 Stop Trading If:
1. All regimes show negative Sharpe for 4+ weeks (market structure changed)
2. Your results >20% worse than shadow portfolios (execution problem)
3. Parameters hitting extremes (thresholds >85 or <35 across all regimes)
4. Memory agreement <30% for extended periods (unprecedented conditions)
5. Account drawdown >20% (risk management failure, system or otherwise)
⚠️ Reduce Size If:
1. Win rate drops 10%+ from peak (temporary regime shift)
2. Selected strategy underperforming another by >30% (selection lag)
3. Consecutive losses >5 (variance or problem, reduce until clarity)
4. Major market regime change (Fed policy shift, war, etc. - let system re-adapt)
PART 15: THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS & LIMITATIONS
WHAT THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS:
Contextual Bandits:
The regime-specific strategy selection implements a contextual multi-armed bandit problem. Each strategy is an "arm," each regime is a "context," and we select arms to maximize expected reward given context. This is reinforcement learning applied to trading.
Experience Replay:
The dual-memory architecture mirrors DeepMind's DQN breakthrough. STM = recent experience buffer; LTM = validated experience replay. This prevents catastrophic forgetting while enabling rapid adaptation—a key challenge in neural network training.
Meta-Learning:
The system learns how to learn. Parameter adaptation adjusts the system's own sensitivity and selectivity based on outcomes. This is "learning to learn"—optimizing the optimization process itself.
Non-Stationary Optimization:
Traditional backtesting assumes stationarity (past patterns persist). This system assumes non-stationarity and continuously adapts. The goal isn't finding "the best parameters" but tracking the moving optimum.
Regime-Conditional Policies:
Rather than a single strategy for all conditions, this implements regime-specific policies. This is contextual decision-making—environment state determines action selection.
FINAL WISDOM:
"The market is a complex adaptive system. To trade it successfully, one must also adapt. This indicator provides the framework—memory, learning, regime awareness—but wisdom comes from understanding when to trade, when to stand aside, and when to defer to conditions the system hasn't yet learned. The edge isn't in the algorithm alone; it's in the partnership between mathematical rigor and human judgment."
— Inspired by the intersection of Einstein's relativity, Kahneman's behavioral economics, and decades of quantitative trading research
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
