ADCB (ADX) · 3H TF— Long Bias: Long continuation into Wave (5) after a clean Wave (4) tag of demand + trendline confluence.
Solid daily uptrend channel (two “Daily Up Trend” guides on your chart). Wave (3) topped in Aug, corrective leg drove into prior demand 13.60–13.85 where Wave (4) likely completed.
Sharp reaction from demand = buyers defended the channel lower rail and reclaimed short-term structure.
Overhead supply 15.96–16.06 is the first trouble area; sustained acceptance above there opens air to the mid/high channel and the Wave (5) projection near 19.6.
Trend / Breakout
Structure: HL → HH sequence intact on higher TFs; 3H momentum turn from demand.
Elliott Wave (current count)
(1) impulse → (2) deep pullback → (3) extended thrust → (4) corrective drop into demand → (5) targeting ~19.6 ( fib/projection level). Invalidation of this count is a decisive break below the (4) low / demand.
Supply & Demand
Demand: 13.60–13.85 (Wave-4 base + trendline + prior structure).
Supply: 15.96–16.06 (prior distribution). Secondary supply near 17.7–18.0 (channel mid/prior reaction).
Trading Plan:
Entry (limit/scale-in): 14.70–14.85 (post-pullback fills).
Add on breakout (optional): Above 16.10 after a 3H close + retest.
Stop Loss: 13.42 (beneath demand & Wave-4 low).
Take Profits:
TP1: 16.20 (≈1R) — first de-risk; move SL → BE.
TP2: 17.80 (~2.2R) — mid-channel/supply pocket.
TP3: 19.60 (~3.5R) — Wave-5 projection.
Planned R/R: ~1 : 3.5 (14.80→19.60 vs 13.42 stop).
Risk Management & Trade Management
Max NGM:RISK : 1–3% of account per plan.
If price tags 1R (~16.18), lock BE on remainder.
Scaling: 40% off at TP1, 30% at TP2, trail remainder using 3H swing lows or channel midline.
If rejection at 16.0 supply with heavy wicks/volume, consider partial hedge or rebuy lower at demand with the same invalidation.
Macro: UAE banks track rate expectations (fed-linked) and regional liquidity; watch GCC risk sentiment.
“Cut your losses short and let your winners run.” — William O’Neil
Disclaimer: This is educational market commentary, not investment advice. Markets carry risk; manage position size and follow your plan.
