Markets - ES, NQ, TLT, XLE, XLF, VIX - WTF over?While crypto is hot on my brain these days, I do still trade the markets. Doing more futures now but still looking to scalp, swing or spread whatever.
Looking into my crystal ball I see trouble brewing lmao. Crystal balls are for shmucks, TA is where its at. Clearer than a crystal ball, markets are trending down. I know it’s crazy, right? Markets trending down, how does that happen? But if this is daily/weekly lower high there could indeed be trouble brewing for bulls.
I was listening to a pod cast the other day talking about the ‘rally’ and how it wasn’t unexpected given the geopolitical situation and that the US markets are the bastion of commerce and thus the safest market to put money in, so lots of Europeans buying in. However, the story goes, that’s only temporary as continuing pressures from higher interest rates, inflation, trade & logistic issues, blah, blah, blah, but basically we are to see more selling pressure. Does make sense but the market will do whatever she is going to do.
ES - Bottom line the 4300 is a very important level if the 4500 doesn’t hold. 4100 is the line in the sand imho. However I wouldn’t be surprised for it to hold the 100dma and surge up to test ATHs. The options on SPX for the coming week has an expected move of only about 88 handles. Interesting since it moved that much on Thursday.
Q's are highly correlated but a bit different with them under their 100 and 200dma. Don’t play the Q's much but worth noting.
Energy seems less affected but it is influenced by oil so I expect that to stay whippy. The financials should be rising with interest rates, right? Well they also hold bonds which are in a serious slide. So the financials may very well be a key this week. Also keep an eye on the foreign markets as an indicator for how we open Monday.
Not lots of volume but I’m expecting volatility to start climbing back up and things to get squirrely. That said, could be a ‘wait and see’ situation where the market chops around current levels. Plenty of opportunities for scalping ranges.
I will likely be scalping ES and not really paying attention to individual names. I only have a few spreads and selling some premium but otherwise not really interested in taking a directional play. If anything, I’m a bit bearish for next week but never let that keep you from making your trade. Buckle up boyz and girlz, could be a wild week, but it could be a snoozer as well.
If you really want to learn how to trade using options, you should visit my friends over at Opinicus They are a top-notch bunch of traders.
BTW, crypto seems to be diverging, but we shall see. Its still very much a rodeo over there LMFAO
Peace
XLE trade ideas
Long $XLEXLE ETF has much territory to recover.
War keeps oil prices surging, sanctions and cuts in supply play their part in the boom of the energy sector.
On the long run still, I think we'll see it normalize in the sense that I don't think a reversion of the trend wouold be possible (meaning price surpass 100USD). Unless war times worsen.
Hopefully for all people involved in the armed conflict this situation will find it's end soon.
AMEX:XLE
Oil up 38% in 7 days! When to sell?Oil exploding higher again making a 7 day run of 38% and XLE running up 14%. Long-term XLE is my play, raking in the dividends but taking profits relatively soon might be wise. We are right at the resistance level for XLE that looks to be pretty heavy but that resistance isn't like the Ukrainian military so I think it's more likely we blow through that level if oil continues. it cannot continue at this pace for long and that's why I want to be taking profits.
If you're trading in the futures market then you have a much better chance of pulling in some high percentage gains in the short run as I believe somewhere above $150/ barrel you will find resistance and it will come crashing down. The question really is, where is the new support? As long as this war continues I think we will stay above $78/ barrel as the new support level. especially with inflation. If WW3 cracks off, all bets are off and I wouldn't see it falling below $100. That being said, XLE won't experience the same type of gains in the short run as a trade. As soon as oil sells off people will sell XLE hard because they are really betting on future gains of the sales of gasoline which won't be there if oil has come back down. The catch is if oil continues to stay elevated and without any subsidies from the government, then there will be less driving which means fewer sales and XLE will be falling.
This is why I think it's wise to take profits on the way up, find a huge sell-off and get back in position on the way down. As we are likely heading into a recession I may roll some of this into TLT for the short run as I exit don't he way up to potentially make some gains in TLT without taking the risk in XLE. As XLE falls when oil pops the lit off, that's when I take my gains in TLT and roll it into XLE again for a longer trade but increasing my position by 20-30%,
XLE SHORT $50 chart gap at $50 and gap at $42 are the first things to notice.
However, there is support going down so it's not like we should expect those prices quickly, but it's good to take note as trends start to break.
support (blue lines) heading down priced.
I do think we hit a top right around $78-$76, and will return to around $72-$74 after it drops a bit before seeing another sell off. I'd start looking for entry on the confirmation.
I could see this settling around $50 (see green trends.
$XLE - Big trendline resistance XLE will have a tough time getting through this area but in reality, it needs a cool off period anyways. Would not be surprised to see this fall back 10-15% before pushing higher. If it breaks through, however, it will still be good to hop on board to $100/sh. GLL
This is not intended as a recommendation. It is for informational purposes only.
Oil rising be ready to sellAs war drums are beating and WW3 may be on the verge of becoming a new reality, oil is ripping the faces off of people shorting it. It's also ripping your wallet apart. I expect a sell-off at some point if it continues at this rate but probably not before making new all-time highs above $150/ barrel. I expected XLE to get to $135 over the next 4-5 years but now it climbing very quickly ut I believe that is short-term. I may be taking some profits around the $100 mark as I expect government control to come in. I am not sure what that will look like yet but if it is a subsidized market whether cash in people's pockets or giving money to oil companies to keep the price low, that's inflation so I expect those stock prices to continue to rise. In the short term, you can hear the negative talk that may trash these stock prices which is exactly why I want to be taking profits at technical places and be ready to buy on these bottoms.
XLE oil WTI
Crude Oil - Higher to complete wave ((iii))As for now. We are expecting price to move higher to complete wave ((iii)). Using Fibonacci multiple guidelines within impulse wave, reasonable target for wave ((iii)) is at 1.618 relationship compare to wave ((i)) movement. Our invalidation level is set at 82.98. – Pengiran.
$XLE Long IdeaThe Energy sector has shown incredible strength during the market selloff as investors seek dividend paying stocks in a stage where rate hikes are inevitable. Historical data shows that energy sector outperforms in an economy with raising rates and this time is no different. With EPS around the corner for $XLE biggest holdings ($XOM, $CVX and $OXY), best case scenario would be an increase in dividend which should send investors running towards these names.
The technical side of this trade shows an strong uptrend with 52 week highs as the indices trade in a correction. If we look at the MACD, fairly bullish breakout and above resistance with room to run and thanks to the recent selloff, the RSI has restarted on longer time frames.
Targets for $XLE are 67, 72, and 76.
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
energy is another sector looking for a higher low (XLE)energy bullishness is another sector rotation play that makes me think were in a better place than some seem to believe. i think we will experience additional bolatility for the time being, but so will the markets at large. we should keep a decent uptrend, unless the pullback proves more retracement than risk tolerance for outflows can support.
the long and short of it is thag bulls have given themselves room to work with, even if we go sideways for a while.