XLE to hit $130 by Jan 2025 a 300% gain from 2020 lowsCheck out the two trends prior to this. Clearly, you can see the run of over 300% that was 6 years long and then another 5-year trend at 142% gain. I believe we have entered commodities run and companies that produce oil and sell gasoline or diesel are going to benefit hugely. I am making a call that by January of 2025 we will see XLE at $130. Even if it doesn't, WTI Crude will hit that $130 mark. Two calls right there I think are very realistic repeating that 5-6 year trend which also matches the first 300% gain although the climb may be steeper. I think that climb coincides with how much inflation we have so I believe it's still a fair analysis overall.
If you have not watched my recent video on hyperinflation, I suggest you do. At least go compare a 1month chart of the M2 money supply (M2SL) to the SPX. Hand a hand increases and parabolic running back to 1960. It looks to be sometime around 2025 we hit our first level of lift-off, straight up as the curve stops and begins to head to the moon. This happens to land around my chart here with XLE being at $130 by 2025. After 2025 all bets are off. WE could be heading into a massive inflationary person and it could be a billion per share or something crazy. That number won't matter anymore of course as it's only nominal.
XLE trade ideas
Energy Sector going Down. XLEImmediate targets 60, 58, 57 .
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
XLE...false break?At current levels ($64), XLE seems to have have done a textbook break and retest of the downrend (purple) in place since 2014 that wold indicate a powerfull move higher is in the cards. However, the impulse move since the lows of march2020 seems complete and XLE reached its minimum target in the $66 area last week. This, plus overbought technicals (Stoch RSI) might suggest that we might be looking at a false break and XLE is about to move below the trendline again for a correction at least to the 50wk ma ($53) that has been significant in the past and potentially lower. All eyes on the FED tomorrow. A dovish tone will likely send XLE higher towards $79. on the opposite, if the FED maintains its recent hike rethoric we will be looking at the false break scenario described above.
XLE S&P Oil and Energy SectorXLE is the ETF of the S&P Oil and
Energy Sector.
If you have to buy anything...
This should be it right now.
Oil could spike up when the Russians roll
(which will be any day now).
If you see 60, might be a good entry.
Oil could easily see $100 a barrel or more
very soon.
if you can swing it...February calls would work.
SHORT XLEThe Energy Sector will be the first to sell off once high growth becomes favored again. XLE is overpriced because of inflation fears when in reality inflation is on a downtrend Month over Month. I expected to see Energy costs fall in the short term along with XLE's price. Playing 2/18 $61 puts at $1.59 a contract.
Energy and Financials Look Like Tech 5-1/2 Years Ago2022 has begun with another sharp rotation from growth to value stocks. The SPDR Technology ETF had its biggest weekly drop in over a year, while the SPDR Energy ETF had its biggest gain in even longer.
Financials also jumped:
Price action in the two value sectors (XLE and XLF) seems to resemble XLK another moment 5-1/2 years ago. The chart below shows XLK between January 2015 and November 2016. Notice how the tech ETF spent more than a year consolidating sideways after a big run, chopping along its 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) before breaking out. There was also a bullish candlestick pattern (post-Brexit kicker) on June 27-28, 2016:
XLE and XLF haven’t consolidated as long as XLK in 2016, but they have other similarities. Both moved sideways for at least six months and spent time below their 100-day SMAs. Both made one final higher low at the 200-day SMAs. Both had potentially bullish candlesticks (abandoned-baby hammers). And, most importantly, both closed at new highs.
It’s also noteworthy that XLK’s 2016 breakout helped launch the current regime of FANG and “big cap growth.” Now as investors shed tech stocks and monetary conditions grow less favorable , similar breakouts have occurred in the polar-opposite sectors. Are we entering a new phase of the market, led by neglected cyclical value names?
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XLE - Breakout of 7 Year Downtrend XLE topped in June 2014, and finally broke the down trend on 1/10/22. OPEC and US producers showing tremendous fiscal and drilling discipline (great for shareholders). Oil supply / demand imbalance will only grow more extreme as omicron wanes, and the global economy continues to reopen.
Best performing sector YTD :)
Unlimited Power!!!XLE been on a damn tear High RSI small rejections may start to signal some things. The energy sector around the world seems to be the place to be with energy prices sky rocketing everywhere that said 2 plays. The breakout bull play if XLE can break above 61.51 can take the play and ride momentum to 63.85 and 68.00. Keep in mind High RSI so if it breaks through and consolidates on that 61.61 level 68 is a very high possiblity. The Rejection play bearish IF XLE cant break above 61.51 combined with this high RSI it will retest the EMA at 60.35 a breakdown there sends it to next support level 59.03.
Bullish outlook on Energy $XLEAppears we have completed an expanded flat on a weekly time frame in $XLE. Since creating the low on the week of March 16, 2020, we have been moving impulsively to the upside, which from a technical standpoint, gives me a bullish outlook for the overall sector. Will update as time progress.
Strong move on XLE….but WAITXLE will continue to be bullish this 2022 as a recovering economy should need a lot of energy & oil.
XLF will rise with XLE as many big banks invest in energy.
55 will be a good support & the next resistance areas are 65, 72 & 80.
Target price may be the height of Head & shoulder at around 88.
But wait….XLE has yet to breakout of a falling wedge soon & then the rising wedge to follow.