$LLY Trade Levels (Weekly)Entry Zone (Demand): $680 – $700
Stop-Loss: Below $660 (invalidates demand zone)
First Target (Resistance): $800 – $820
Second Target (Supply): $880 – $920
R/R Setup: ~1:3 if entry at demand and target at upper supply
LLYD trade ideas
Eli Lilly (LLY) Weekly Chart – Double Top Patterns & Major SuppoLLY has formed consecutive double top patterns within a broad descending channel.
Price recently tested a long-term major support zone and bounced strongly, signaling renewed buying interest. If this momentum holds, a move toward the major resistance near $973 is possible, aligning with the upper trend-line.
RSI remains in recovery territory, suggesting potential for further upside before overbought conditions appear.
$LLY: Decision Zone — Wedge Breakout or Retest of 685Eli Lilly (LLY) rebounded off the long-term trendline and weekly demand box (≈622–686) and is compressing inside a descending wedge.
Bullish path (blue): a clean break and retest of wedge resistance opens room toward the prior extension/marker near ~970.
Bearish path (red): rejection at the wedge cap could send price back to the green trendline for a higher-low around ~685 before another attempt up.
News supporting the bullish path:
1- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) UK price hike: Lilly will lift UK list prices by up to ~170% from Sept 1, 2025 (e.g., highest doses from ~£122 to ~£330), with pharmacies flagging stockpiling/shortages. This supports revenue/ASP but may draw scrutiny.
2- Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 (orforglipron, oral GLP-1): trial met primary & key secondary endpoints in patients with obesity/overweight and Type-2 diabetes; company guiding to global regulatory submissions this year. Reports cite ~10.5% mean weight loss at the top dose. Sentiment tailwind for the obesity franchise.
Invalidation: weekly close below ~622.
Not financial advice :)
Lilly Has Fallen. Can it Get Up?Eli Lilly has been trending lower, and some traders may see further downside risk in the pharma giant.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on August 7. The decline came despite better-than-expected quarterly results, which may reflect weakening fundamentals.
Second is the May 23 low of $709 where LLY now appears to be stalling. Has old support become new resistance?
Third, last week’s peak occurred at a 50 percent retracement of the decline from late July.
Fourth, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is below the 200-day SMA. That may confirm a longer-term downtrend is in effect.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average is below the 21-day EMA. That may reflect a bearish short-term trend.
Finally, LLY is an active underlier in the options market. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.
Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com .
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Still in Mark-Down stageBelow the 200 DMA and the VWAP anchored to the stage 2 mark-up start. I don't think we're at the accumulation stage yet. Not even close.
LLY - Clean Levels UpdatedEli Lilly's hit those 708.49 and 711 levels I mentioned in my previous LLY post.
I've added some weekly levels, and a couple relevant spots from my boxed LLY chart.
If LLY loses steam up here we could easily see a retest of that box top area in the $680 - $678 range. Otherwise if we see a market wide reversion from today's liquidation, and LLY clears today's high(~714) and firmly holds that high volume area, that gap($738) fill would be a no-brainer.
Personally leaning on the side of a short continuation(in the near time at least), didn't really trust the low volume float up over the last few trading days, and definitely don't like the decreasing volume into that $711 - $714 area (I'd consider it a Look above and fail).
Regardless of bias, we trade what we see.
~ The Villain.
LLY eyes on $635.82: Major fib may hold earnings + news CRASHLLY earnings plus some GLP news tanked the stock.
But the crash came to an abrupt halt at a Genesis fib.
Look for a bounce but expect bears at the Golden's above.
LLY $720 Call Setup: Don’t Miss Out on This Breakout Play!🚀 LLY Weekly Options Analysis (2025-08-17) 🚀
### 🔎 Comprehensive Multi-Model Insights
**Grok/xAI Report**
* 📊 RSI: Neutral (Daily & Weekly \~46)
* 📈 Flow: Call/Put = **3.87 (Bullish bias)**
* 🔊 Volume: Weak vs. previous weeks → ⚠️ no strong institutional support
* 🛑 Trade: **No entry** (weak confirmation)
**Gemini/Google Report**
* 📊 RSI: Improving but <50/55 (not yet bullish confirmation)
* 🔊 Volume: Weak
* ✅ Trade: **Moderate bullish call (\$720 strike)** | Confidence: 65%
**Claude/Anthropic Report**
* 📊 RSI: Neutral
* 📈 Flow: Call/Put = **3.87 bullish**
* 🔊 Volume: Weak patterns → cautious stance
* ✅ Trade: Moderate bullish call, but **emphasizes risks**
**Llama/Meta Report**
* 📊 RSI: Neutral/Weak
* 📈 Flow: Institutional bullish flow (3.87 ratio)
* 🔊 Volume: Non-confirmation
* ✅ Trade: Moderate bullish (aligned with Gemini/Claude)
**DeepSeek Report**
* 📊 RSI: Weak alignment despite recovery
* 🔊 Volume: Bearish divergence + resistance overhead
* 🛑 Trade: **No entry** | Confidence below threshold
---
### 📌 Agreements
✔️ All models: **Bullish call/put ratio (\~3.87)** but **weak RSI & volume**
✔️ Consensus: **Momentum is fragile**, needs stronger confirmation
### 📌 Disagreements
⚖️ Gemini/Claude/Llama → **Moderate bullish call**
⚖️ Grok/DeepSeek → **No trade (weak volume + resistance risks)**
---
## 📊 Trade Setup (Consensus-Based)
* **Direction:** CALL (Long)
* **Strike:** \$720
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-22
* **Entry Price:** \$6.50
* **Stop Loss:** \$3.25 (50% of premium)
* **Profit Target:** \$12.00 – \$13.00 (85–100% gain potential)
* **Confidence:** 65%
* **Entry Timing:** Market Open
---
### ⚠️ Key Risks
* Weak volume = 🚫 limited institutional backing
* RSI < 50 on both daily/weekly = 🚫 not yet strong bullish momentum
* Resistance @ **\$706** could cap upside
---
## 📌 Final Outlook:
**Consensus = Moderate Bullish**, but **caution advised**.
This trade favors **institutional flow > technicals**, with higher risk due to weak confirmations.
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON**
```json
{
"instrument": "LLY",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 720.00,
"expiry": "2025-08-22",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 12.00,
"stop_loss": 3.25,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 6.50,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-17 08:10:17 EDT"
}
LLY AUG-2025Eli Lilly ( NYSE:LLY ) rebounded strongly from the 640 support zone after institutional absorption. Price is now targeting the gap at 740, aligning with prior distribution levels. Sustained momentum above 700 could drive continuation into 737–740. Failure to hold above 640 risks a deeper move into the 440 gap.
Upside target: 740
Downside target: 440
#LLY #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
Red Pill or Blue Pill?Red Pill first - let’s stick to some harsh realities, but using technical analysis only.
Why the harsh crash?
We were rejected at the Value Area high at $972, followed by another rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $916, along with the top of the flag pattern of this giant bull flag. This was an epic short for those that took it, strong technical confluence.
We then began consolidating before another rejection of the POC - $776, we also lost the 21 week moving average. The rejection was on a large volume candle - so the bears are firmly in control, for now. This is a pivotal point since Lily had claimed the 21 week moving average in December 2020, and it was only just lost. Not good.
Blue Pill - is there hope? I think so. In my opinion this is a giant bull flag pattern and eventually Eli Lilly will break all time highs, but that will take time to play out. Don't be mistaken, the bears are in full control. But we are now sitting on the first line of support - the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $641 and the VAL - so far we are holding. Is this the optimal entry for new longs? It's not a bad place to start building a position, if you want to be extremely aggressive. We have just dipped into my DEMAND ZONE box.
Waiting for lower? Well that is likely given the downtrend volume. We could get an optimal entry between $557 to $599. We have a strong confluence of the 200 week moving average and the golden ratio pocket. I don't think we will lose the critical weekly support level, but if that is lost there isn't a lot of support below. I do firmly believe institutions will be stepping in here and buying aggressively. Of course a recession will change everything, but we are not there yet.
So there's reasons to be optimistic for long term holders buying on dips, but don't expect a swift recovery.
Not financial advice, always do what's best for you. Keep a close eye on this chart
LLY - Clean LevelsBull flag patten on the LLY weekly Chart. The base of the flag/channel has been reactive so far although with low volume (See previously boxed LLY chart) off the top of the recent boxed range.
If you look at the previous chart, you will see that LLY is currently floating up through a low volume node on the anchored volume profile. Unless sellers step in here, 708.49/709 - 711.44 is the next target.
Volume will be in that area, if buyers step in, could be great for calls. Otherwise we could see a look above and fail of the top boxed range(again see previous chart under related publications to the right of this post).
~The Villain
LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play🚀 LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play
**Sentiment:** 🟢 *Moderate Bullish*
* **Call/Put Ratio:** 3.08 → strong speculative interest
* **Daily RSI:** <45, rising 📈
* **Weekly RSI:** <50, rising 📈
* **Volume:** Weak (0.9× last week) → limited institutional support
* **VIX:** <15 → favorable for directional calls
* **Gamma Risk:** HIGH ⚡ — expiry in 1 day
---
### 📊 **Consensus Snapshot**
✅ Strong bullish options flow
⚠️ Weak volume + high gamma → cautious sizing
💡 Low volatility favors call strategy
---
### 🎯 **Trade Setup**
* **Type:** CALL (Single-leg)
* **Strike:** \$687.50
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-15
* **Entry:** \$0.79
* **Profit Target:** \$1.20 (+153%)
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.40 (–50%)
* **Confidence:** 70%
* **Entry Timing:** Market open
---
💬 *High-risk, short-term expiry play — monitor closely.*
📌 *Not financial advice. DYOR.*
---
**#LLY #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #DayTrading #StocksToWatch #GammaRisk #OptionsFlow #TradingSignals**
$LLY buying below $709 is grand! Hope you buy more <3 ULong-Term Bullish Analysis for Eli Lilly (LLY)
Fundamental Strength
LLY has demonstrated exceptional financial growth over the past several years:
Revenue Growth: Q2 2025 revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $15.6B, showing accelerating growth
Earnings Expansion: EPS has grown from $2.11 in Q2 2023 to $6.31 in Q2 2025 - a 199% increase over 2 years
Improving Margins: Gross profit margin has steadily increased from 80.4% in Q3 2023 to 84.3% in Q2 2025
Strong ROE: Return on equity has improved significantly from negative territory in Q3 2023 to 30.8% in Q2 2025
Market Cap: Despite recent volatility, LLY maintains a massive market cap of $739B
Catalyst Growth Drivers
1. Dominant Position in Weight Loss Market
LLY's Zepbound and Mounjaro are establishing dominance in the obesity treatment market:
Head-to-head trials showed Zepbound achieved 20.2% average weight loss vs. 13.7% for Wegovy over 72 weeks
Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) met Phase 3 goals in type 2 diabetes with significant A1C and weight reduction
Growing international expansion (India launch at competitive pricing)
2. Alzheimer's Portfolio Development
Kisunla (donanemab) received marketing authorization in Australia for early Alzheimer's
FDA approved a new dosing schedule that significantly lowers ARIA-E risk while maintaining efficacy
Long-term extension data from Phase 3 showing slowing of decline continued to grow over three years
3. Strong Analyst Sentiment
The vast majority of analysts maintain "buy" ratings with increasing price targets:
83 analyst ratings since January 2024, with 80 being "buy" or "confirm buy" recommendations
Recent price targets ranging from $900-1100, with a consensus above current price
Only 2 downgrades to "hold" and 1 to "sell" in the entire dataset
Technical Analysis
Looking at your charts:
Weekly Chart: LLY is currently trading at $672.40, having pulled back significantly from all-time highs above $900. Price is now testing key Fibonacci support levels:
61.8% retracement at $753.31
161.8% extension around $637 providing strong support
Williams Alligator indicator showing potential bottoming pattern
Daily Chart: Parabolic SAR indicates a bearish trend but approaching potential reversal point. Stochastic showing oversold condition with potential for bounce.
Hourly Chart: Recent consolidation with slight upward momentum forming after significant decline.
Long-Term Investment Thesis
Industry Leadership: LLY continues to lead innovation in high-growth therapeutic areas including obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer's.
Pipeline Strength: Multiple late-stage candidates and recent approvals ensure revenue growth for years to come. The company's commitment to R&D is evident in its consistent pipeline progression and breakthrough treatments.
Valuation Opportunity: Recent pullback from all-time highs provides a more attractive entry point for long-term investors, with PE ratio improving from 134 in Q2 2024 to 63 in Q2 2025.
Expansion Strategy: LLY is pursuing strategic acquisitions (SiteOne, Verve Therapeutics) and partnerships to strengthen its portfolio in key therapeutic areas.
Risk Factors
Political/Regulatory Risk: Potential drug pricing reforms and tariff threats could impact pricing power
Competition: Novo Nordisk and emerging competitors in the GLP-1 space
Valuation Concerns: Despite pullback, still trading at premium PE ratio compared to sector average
Entry Strategy
The recent pullback from the $900 level creates a potential long-term entry opportunity as LLY tests key technical support around $670-680.
Consider:
Initiating a position at current levels (~$672)
Adding on further weakness toward the $637 support level (if it occurs)
Using the recent low as a stop-loss reference point
With continued execution on its strategy and pipeline advancement, LLY has strong potential to resume its uptrend and deliver significant long-term growth.
Eli Lilly (LLY) – Pharma Giant at a Key Price LevelHi,
Eli Lilly & Co. is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis. It operates in over 125 countries and is best known for blockbuster treatments in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and immunology. Recent growth has been driven largely by its GLP-1 class drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have quickly become industry leaders in the weight-loss and diabetes markets.
Recent Fundamentals (Q2 2025)
Revenue: $15.56 B (+38% YoY)
- EPS: $6.31 (beat expectations)
- Mounjaro sales: $5.2 B
- Zepbound sales: $3.38 B
- Full-year guidance: Revenue $60–62 B, EPS $21.75–$23.00
- Margins: Gross margin ~82.6%, net margin ~25.9%
- Profitability: ROE ~75.5%, ROIC ~29.6%
While fundamentals remain strong, the recent Phase III data for the oral weight-loss pill orforglipron came in below expectations, sparking a ~14% drop, the stock’s steepest one-day decline in decades. Analysts have since trimmed long-term sales forecasts for this product.
From a valuation perspective, the stock trades at a premium (~41× P/E, ~10.7× P/S), leaving little room for major disappointments.
Technicals
Technically speaking, the price has arrived in the zone where I’ve been patiently waiting to share it as an idea. This is a good area from where to start building positions if you’re interested.
There are quite a few technical confluence factors aligning here, but be ready to grab it also around $500 if the market offers it. Let that be your guide:
- If you’re not willing to hold long-term, don’t touch it.
- If you’re not willing to buy more at lower prices, don’t touch it.
Good luck,
Vaido
LLY what next after the free fallLLY, what's next after the free fall?
This stock has lost about 24% of its value in the past 2 weeks alone.
$600 - $620 may be a buying zone as shown on my chart. With more than 100 drugs in its pipeline, there is like room for a positive push long term
Long Healthcare and BiotechI think we will go for all time highs soon
TP 1 over 900
Got 2 stop losses on chart depending on time horizon and risk apatite
LLY Is Overbought ---$615 Put Play**💊 LLY WEEKLY TRADE IDEA — BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDING**
📉 **Sentiment:** Strong bearish lean (70% confidence) — low RSI, high volume distribution.
📊 **Institutional Flow:** 1.7x weekly volume, puts stacking near key strikes.
⚠ **Risk:** Gamma risk + oversold → expect high volatility.
**🛠 Setup:**
* **Direction:** PUT (Short bias)
* **Strike:** \$615
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-15
* **Entry:** \$2.20 – \$2.40
* **PT:** \$3.30 (50-100% gain target)
* **SL:** \$1.20 (\~40-50% loss cap)
📌 **Why?**
* Daily RSI \~20, Weekly RSI \~33 → both falling
* Institutional selling pattern confirmed
* Bearish volume + neutral C/P ratio tilt
💡 *Timing is key — oversold = possible dead-cat bounce before breakdown to \$605 support.*
ELI LILLYJust a quick charting of LLY. Volume Profile's revealing some potential key spots of interest.
Pay attention to the low and high volume nodes, especially those below the value area.
Watching to see if the higher time frame value area low causes a reaction. Will evaluate further afterwards.
Rare Discount Below $700LLY’s sell-off today is driven by underwhelming data from its new oral GLP‑1 drug—but it came on the heels of an otherwise stellar earnings report and outlook upgrade. If you believe in Lilly’s leadership in obesity and diabetes treatments, its strong cash flows, and long-term drug development pipeline, this could be a compelling opportunity to buy at a discount.
Rare discount at 15% below the monthly average with a price last seen in Feb 2024. Buy the dip back to $700s.
LLY Ready to Break Out? Here's What the Chart Tells Us🚨 LLY Ready to Break Out? Here's What the Chart Tells Us
Back in November 2024, we shared an idea warning that Eli Lilly (LLY) was facing some serious headwinds.
Since then, the market has confirmed it, NYSE:LLY has spent nearly a year moving sideways , showing little strength to push the stock higher.
But that period of consolidation may be coming to an end.
Right now, NYSE:LLY is forming a classic flag (or channel) pattern in the middle of a longer-term bullish trend. Technically speaking, a breakout to the upside would project the price directly into the analyst consensus target, which currently ranges between $950 and $1,000 .
That would be a strong continuation of the long-term uptrend!
However, even without a breakout, this chart offers attractive trading opportunities inside the pattern. Buying near the bottom of the channel and selling near the top could yield gains of up to 25% , all while keeping risk low . Why? Because we can clearly define a support zone (shown in red) based on previous highs and high VRVP volume, which gives us a logical stop-loss area.
📈 Let’s not forget: LLY has already corrected around 30% from its all-time highs , and if price drops to the lower buy zone, that discount could increase to 35%, a level many long-term investors would find very attractive.
Analyst sentiment remains strong, with a "Strong Buy" consensus rating and price targets nearing $1,000, making this setup one worth watching closely.
💬 Does this setup align with your view on NYSE:LLY ?
🚀 Hit the rocket if this helped you spot the opportunity and follow for more Chart Patterns and educational trade ideas!
LLY Bullish thesis #theStratLLY made a new recent low to expand the broadening formation. We just reclaimed the bottom of the range that we've been in for the last few months. I will be looking for price to reach $800+ again within the next few weeks. Earnings right around the corner too😎
Conservative Bullish Case for Eli Lilly: A Pharmaceutical LeaderEli Lilly (LLY) is currently trading at $812.95, having recently shown strength by climbing from the mid-$700s to over $800 in the past month. The stock has established a key support zone in the $760-780 range while testing resistance around the current price level.
Fundamental Strength
LLY's recent performance is backed by solid fundamentals:
Improving Profitability Metrics: The PE ratio has decreased from 135.9 in Q1 2024 to 70.2 in Q1 2025, indicating improved earnings efficiency despite the high valuation.
Strong Gross Profit Margins: Consistently maintaining margins above 80% (82.5% in Q1 2025), demonstrating pricing power and operational efficiency.
Impressive Earnings Growth: Q4 2024 showed a 113.7% year-over-year EPS growth, with Q1 2025 continuing the trend at 29.5% growth.
Return on Equity: Q1 2025 ROE of 17.4% shows efficient use of shareholder capital.
Catalysts for Continued Growth
Recent developments support a bullish outlook:
European Regulatory Progress: On July 25th, LLY received positive CHMP recommendation for donanemab in Alzheimer's treatment, opening a significant new market.
Product Innovation Pipeline: The FDA approved a new dosing schedule for Kisunla (donanemab) on July 9th, enhancing its safety profile while maintaining efficacy.
Pricing Strategy Optimization: LLY introduced flat-rate pricing for Zepbound at $499/month in June, potentially expanding market access.
Strategic Acquisitions: The company's $1.3 billion acquisition of Verve Therapeutics expands its portfolio into gene editing for cardiovascular disease.
Strong Analyst Support: 12 of 13 recent analyst ratings are "buy," with an average price target around $1,000, suggesting approximately 23% upside potential.
Technical Setup
The weekly chart shows LLY in a Stage 2 growth phase according to Weinstein analysis, with price consolidating after a strong uptrend. The recent price action has formed a potential base in the $760-780 range, with the stock now testing resistance.
Conservative Trade Approach
For investors seeking a measured entry into LLY:
Entry Strategy: Consider a partial position at current levels ($810-815) with plans to add on any pullbacks to the $780 support zone.
Position Sizing: Limit initial position to 50% of intended allocation to manage risk.
Stop Loss: Place a protective stop below the recent support at $760 (approximately 6.5% below current price).
Target: First target at $900 (10.7% upside), with potential for further gains to analyst consensus targets around $1,000 (23% upside).
Risk Management: The 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio makes this a favorable setup for conservative investors.
Risks to Consider
While the outlook is positive, prudent investors should be aware of:
Valuation Concerns: Despite PE ratio improvement, LLY still trades at a premium to the broader market.
Competition: Novo Nordisk and emerging competitors are advancing their own weight management and diabetes treatments.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Increased attention on GLP-1 drugs could impact growth trajectory.
Political Risk: Potential pharmaceutical tariffs under a new administration could affect margins.
LLY - Earnings upcoming, recent news makes this appealing📈 LLY — Eli Lilly & Co.
Ticker: LLY | Sector: Biotech / Pharmaceuticals
Date: July 26, 2025
Current Price: ~$813
Resistance Zone: $825
Support Zone: $740–$750
🧪 Recent Drug News
1. EMA Backs Alzheimer’s Drug Donanemab (Kisunla)
The European Medicines Agency’s advisory committee has issued a positive opinion on donanemab for early Alzheimer's patients with confirmed amyloid pathology and fewer ApoE4 gene copies. This reverses a previous rejection and paves the way for a likely EU approval in the coming months. Data from TRAILBLAZER‑ALZ trials showed slower cognitive decline and improved safety with a modified dosing regimen, while Europe’s Alzheimer’s patient population is projected to nearly double by 2050.
2. Orforglipron Shows Promising Phase 3 Results
Lilly’s investigational oral GLP‑1 therapy, orforglipron, achieved clinically significant results in Phase 3: A1C reductions of 1.3%–1.6% across doses, weight loss averaging 7.9% at the highest dose, and efficacy seen as early as four weeks. The safety profile was consistent with injectable GLP‑1 drugs, offering a powerful oral option for type 2 diabetes management.
⚡ Analyst & Market Recap (Past Week)
HSBC issued a double downgrade, lowering its rating to "Reduce" and cutting its price target from $1,150 to $700, citing valuation concerns and competitive pressure in the weight-loss space.
Erste Group downgraded LLY from “Buy” to “Hold,” slowing expectations around drug pipeline momentum.
Despite this, other analysts maintain a positive outlook, with the average 12-month price target in the $1,012–$1,016 range, spanning a wide band from $700 to $1,190.
Investor sentiment is shifting cautiously due to rising competition and high multiples.
🔍 Technical & Market Structure
Based on the latest 30-minute chart:
Price remains stuck within a sideways trading range, bounded by a resistance level near $825 and support in the $740–$750 area.
Momentum is building but hasn’t broken through significant technical thresholds yet.
✅ Bullish Scenario
Trigger: Break and hold above $825
Targets: $850 → $900 → $950
Catalysts: Oral GLP‑1 approval prospects, Alzheimers regulatory momentum, and possible drug trial successes
❌ Bearish Scenario
Trigger: Breakdown below $740
Targets: $700 → $670
Risks Include: Rising competition from Novo Nordisk, slowing pipeline news, valuation compression, and analyst downgrades
🧠 Strategic Summary
LLY is operating in a tight technical corridor, with the potential for volatility driven by both clinical and regulatory catalysts. The recent drug developments—donanemab's EMA advancement and orforglipron's strong Phase 3 results—may supply fuel for a bullish breakout if momentum shifts convincingly above $825. Conversely, bearish pressure may intensify if the downside at $740 breaks.
Key levels to watch: breakout above $825 or failure below $740.
