Germany Blocks €10 Billion in Payments, Shaking PayPalIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
German banks have put PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) under pressure after blocking more than €10 billion in transactions on suspicion of massive fraud. According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, institutions such as Sparkasse, Bayerische Landesbank, Hessische Landesbank, and DZ Bank halted direct debits processed by the platform after its anti-fraud system failed, allowing unfiltered operations to go through.
The problem, which spread across Europe, hit Germany particularly hard. The Association of Savings Banks (DSGV) acknowledged the significant impact, although it confirmed that services had already been restored. PayPal, for its part, assured that the interruption was “temporary” and that security controls have been reinforced. Regulators BaFin (Germany) and CSSF (Luxembourg) were informed, with no further intervention required.
The reputational blow was quickly reflected in markets: PayPal shares fell between 1.9% and 2.5% following the news.
Solid Fundamentals Despite the Setback
The incident comes at a time when the company had been showing progress in its turnaround strategy. In the second quarter of 2025, PayPal reported revenues of USD 8.29 billion (+5% year-on-year) and adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.40, beating expectations. Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached USD 443.5 billion (+6%), with Venmo standing out with a 20% increase in revenue. Additionally, the company raised its annual profit guidance to a range of USD 5.15–5.30 per share.
Despite these figures, the market reacted cautiously due to a slowdown in its core checkout business, which led to stock declines of up to 8–9% after earnings.
Technical Analysis
The stock has been trading in a range between $50 and $94 since June 2022, though this band has recently narrowed to between $66.51 and $79.61. Yesterday’s close was $70.06, right in the middle of the long-term range and aligned with the Point of Control (POC), reflecting market indecision.
Technically, the stock registered a death cross at the beginning of August (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA), reinforcing downside pressure. The current price is testing resistance at the 50-day MA, near $72. A clear breakout above this level could open the way toward $79.50, the July highs.
Among the indicators, the RSI sits in neutral territory (49.7), leaving room for movement in either direction, while the MACD remains negative but is trending upward, suggesting a possible attempt to retest resistance at $72.
On the downside, key support levels are at $66.51 and the cycle low of $55.85. A break below this latter level could reopen the door to further declines toward the base of the 2022 range.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator signals an environment of “Extreme Risk On”, reflecting excess market greed that may trigger volatile moves and sudden reversals.
Reputation at Stake and Ongoing Restructuring
The German case reignites the debate over the reliability of security systems in large fintechs. The failure in Germany strikes PayPal’s reputation at a critical stage of its restructuring. In the short term, the stock remains at an inflection point within a tight range that needs to be broken decisively to reflect meaningful change. In the medium term, however, strong fundamentals support recovery prospects and imply a potential upside of 10–20% if the company can restore market confidence.
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